Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Aanwolf]

Well, that stinks.  Even worse than eating your own shoe  .

 

I can't stay on for very long tonight, but I think we need to figure out what happened last round.  Now that we know there is only one CC left, that should help us narrow things down quite a bit.

 

So, I think it would probably be helpful to reveal where we were last turn.  Also, since the assassin didn't hit its mark, it is probably good for us to figure out who bid on it and what targets were selected.  However, I don't want to make that decision unilaterally, so I will wait to reveal those things about myself until others have a chance to chime in on whether or not revealing that information is a good idea.  I don't see a good reason not to share info after the fact.  Three of us are innocent and have three other suspects to consider.  It shouldn't be too hard to get a good idea what to do next.

 

Still, maybe someone else will see something I have missed.  I'm inclined to save my suspicions for now until we decide what to reveal.  Any thoughts on that?

Edited June 30, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Clanky he/him]

At this point I think we should reveal everything. No point in holding anything backnow. Either we lynch the last CC or we lose unless the CC attempts to kill a vault car occupant.

 

 I bid 11 coins for the assassin but didn't get it. I had put the hit on Zas if I had succeeded. I was more suspicious of Aanwolf but since he may have died anyways I picked my number 2 suspicion Zas. Now that I have done a more thorough analysis of the players I feel like that actually was probably a mistake. 

 

I thin with the amount of people who are left It would be helpful for people to analyze the other three players so we can get reasons for everyones suspicions and why they cleared the other players. I feel with three people this isn't too much to ask. 

[Zas678 he/him]

I was in the Vault with Alvron last cycle. I didn't bid for the assassin, because I had so few coins from the failed passenger car and from the two times I was in the Vault.  

[Alvron he/him]

It's not quite a must win turn as we still have medkits.  If we can 'protect' the CC target then we will gain an extra turn should we screw up and kill another passenger.  I will be buying a medkit but I won't be saying who I will be targeting as then the CC will know who not to target.  I suggest everyone does the same.

 

As for where I was, last round, I was in the Vault.  I wasn't alone but I'll leave it up to them to say if they want to reveal themselves or not.  I was hoping by saying that there should be two in each car last cycle that the CC would target me and thus waste another kill.  Sadly it didn't work.

 

I bid two coins on the assassin as that was all I had.

 

 

Edit: Crossed out part due to Zas' ninjaing.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Alvron

[Zas678 he/him]

Aanwolf, how many coins do you have? I currently have 8.

 

Aanwolf, I think you may be the CC. You were defending Neo very strongly, and all the other CC plus Jain and you saved Neo from getting killed in Cycle 4 by all jumping on board the Shallan wagon.  Then you helped save Neo by jumping on the Dow wagon at the last minute. You may have done the same on Cycle 6, but you weren't on when the Clanky bandwagon started. You also haven't ever been in the Vault, and I believe that we never figured out who assassinated Burnt in Cycle 6. Unless you've been messaging other people or healing other people (Gamma?) you should've been able to easily had more than 11 coins to bid for an assassin.  

 

Now I would say that an eliminator usually wouldn't be so strong in defending a fellow Elminator, but someone who's playing the first time? Without a doc, and therefore people to help tell him to not defend so strong? It's possible.

 

EDIT AFTER 12 hours- It'll be impressive if the last round of the game is decided by a single vote. 

[Zas678 he/him]

Yes, I know, it's a double post, but I see that Aanwolf is looking at this, and I want to hear what he says.

[Aanwolf]

Ha ha.  I had just started typing a response when I saw there was a reply, so I refreshed the page.  This is the first I've been able to be on since yesterday.  Don't worry, I'm responding to you.

 

EDIT:  Here is my response.  Since you seem so interested, I'll post it piece by piece as I type it.

 

I have 7 coins right now, though I'm not sure that tells you much.  I haven't had much luck with the passenger car either.  There was only one time I was in it when it failed, but one time I forgot to PM my bet and two rounds ago you know how it turned out since we were both there.  You bet 1 coin and I bet 0, since that's all there was.

 

Last turn I was in the caboose by myself.  I did not bid on the assassin because I thought others had more cash than me (based on numbers revealed for bids so far) and because I didn't know where anyone was.  I knew there would be at least one room with two people in it, so whoever was there would at least know a target that wouldn't fail due to someone being in the vault car.  Posting now and adding more later...

 

EDIT: The vote history you posted does not look good for me, I'll admit.  Bad luck on my part.  My memory of the debates I got involved in is that I wasn't protective of those people as much as suspicious (and in some cases convinced) of the other person.  You've gone through them recently, so say so if I am misremembering (I don't have time to review it).  I do know that it's only been very recently that I've come under serious suspicion, so it must not have stood out to others too much.  My actions made sense to me at the time, even if they don't look good in retrospect.

 

I guess the question you have to ask yourself is this: If you believe that I am CC and that due to inexperience or some other error that led me to defend them too much, then that would mean I am not playing well.  I admit that I've made a lot of mistakes - which is most of the reason why I've backed off these last few rounds, losing confidence that logic would uncover the CC.  However, I would expect an inexperienced player who doesn't know better to end up revealing themselves much earlier than this - particularly since I have been posting so much.  (Too much in the first week, enough that my wife started to get annoyed with how much time I was spending posting or doing math, etc.)  Rather, based on comments others have made about the CC doing a good job, I would expect the CC to be someone who is experienced enough to know how to avoid suspicion from other experienced players.  So take that for what it is worth.

 

A few general comments coming in a bit...

 

EDIT: One last thought.  The point about Alvron being in the same car as the person who died is interesting.  I didn't put too much weight on it at first because I realized (but did not want to reveal for obvious reasons) that once the CC are down to one or two players, paying to go to the vault car is actually a good strategy for them, since then they can kill whomever they want.  So, I was suspicious of Jain and Orlok too since they were in the vault car that round.  I deliberately tried not to say anything that would suggest I was aware of that strategy as I was hoping someone would make a mistake about it in their post.  However, they both died, so there goes that theory.  So, right now I am leaning to Alvron as the only one left who would have known that his car partner was not in the vault.  However, there is still the possibility that Zas or Clanky (or myself from their perspective) could have picked a random person and hoped it worked out.  But, since there were two of us per car that cycle and we were down to 1 CC at that point, the CC would have only known the location of one other person.  If there are 8 people and 2 in your car (not the vault) then since placement tries to be as even as possible, there are at least two other people in the other open cars, maybe as many as six, with the middle range of four being the most likely due to some simple combinatoric considerations.  That gives the probability of randomly picking someone to not be in the vault car between 33% and 100%, with an even distribution of people suggesting a 67% chance.  If the CC is outnumbered 7 to 1, would it be smart to take the risk of hitting someone in the vault?

 

At one point, I had thought Zas was a likely CC, but that depended on other people being CC who have since proven to be innocent.  On the other hand, my assumptions of Alvron's likely innocence (and reluctance to vote for someone who was being logical) have largely evaporated based on how the rounds have turned out.  Given that whoever is CC is doing a pretty good job, and due to the reasons stated above, I'm going to vote for Alvron.

 

Final note, I want to ask Renegade: If someone was the highest bidder for the assassin but the target was in the vault car, what would happen?  The target wouldn't die, yes, but would it be posted as an attempted assassination in the write up?  Also, would it still cost the highest bidder his/her bid?  If not, would that person be notified by PM about what had happened?

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention that the reason I haven't been in the vault car is that I didn't feel like a target until recently, and I wanted to save my coins to get to the vault car if I did become a target, or to use med-kits to help someone I suspected was innocent.

 

These last couple of rounds, I have come under fire, and the chances of being randomly killed are higher, but when I realized that the CC would have good reason to go to the vault once there was only one CC left, I realized it might not be as safe of a purchase as I thought, and going there would mean I couldn't use a med-kit on someone.  Since I was trying not to reveal the strategy of a CC going to the vault car (in case the CC hadn't thought of it) I didn't want to say anything.  I'm saying it now because this may be our last chance to lynch the CC and even if we get another round, it will likely be due to one of us being med-kit stabilized so the CC won't have to kill that person anyway.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Clanky he/him]

So I assume that one of Jain/Orlok bought the assassin then. Or Aanwolf is lying which I doubt. Now I seem to remember Alvron saying something about CCs not wanting to pay for the vault car so they could get the assassin. At first this seemed logical but I think that it is a bit can go into the vault car and let the passengers bid for the Assassin knowing that they are safe from it. This would've been enough to put my vote firmly on Alvron but his post about everyone buying med-kits is a very passenger thing to say. 

[Aanwolf]

Just a note that Clanky's last post came in while I was typing my last edit, so everything I said was without knowledge of Clanky's post.  I'm not sure if that is significant or not, but I wanted to be clear.

[Renegade he/him]

Final note, I want to ask Renegade: If someone was the highest bidder for the assassin but the target was in the vault car, what would happen?  The target wouldn't die, yes, but would it be posted as an attempted assassination in the write up?  Also, would it still cost the highest bidder his/her bid?  If not, would that person be notified by PM about what had happened?

 

If the Assassin target was unable to be killed (by being in the Vault Car, unless the highest bidder was also in the Vault Car), then it would show up the same as if the bid did not go through.  If that did happen, then they would still have to pay the coins that they bid, and would be informed of what happened.  If two players who bid the same number of coins targeted different players, neither would be informed of what happened, just that their bid did not go through (and therefore they would not have to pay).

Edited June 30, 2015 by Renegade

[Aanwolf]

Clanky, consider this:

 

By suggesting the idea about the med-kits, Alvron deflects suspicion from himself in a clever way, making it more likely for the vote to go a different direction in a crucial round.  Furthermore, he won't pay for a med-kit but could always claim that he used it on someone else instead.  Since no one knows who gets the med-kit, and he's made a good case for being innocent by suggesting it, he is one of the most likely people to get a med-kit used on him, meaning there is a very good chance his kill will go through, and even if it doesn't, he's bought himself one last round (with lowered suspicion, especially since his strategy would have "worked").

 

Alvron is definitely clever enough to come up with that strategy.  He's been very sneaky, and I'm getting more convinced he is just a really good CC.

[Zas678 he/him]

Aanwolf, where are the rest of your coins? Let's say you started with 2 coins. You get 2 coins a round, since you've been active, so for 9 rounds, that gives you 20 coins. You lost a bet of 2 coins, so that's 18. So where are your other 11 coins? 

 

Also, you've played masterfully, whether or not you're a CC. Lots of good analysis, good data interpretation, and good play. If you are CC, it's super impressive that you made it all the way to the last round, with a 75% chance of victory. 

[Alvron he/him]

Clanky, consider this:

 

By suggesting the idea about the med-kits, Alvron deflects suspicion from himself in a clever way, making it more likely for the vote to go a different direction in a crucial round.  Furthermore, he won't pay for a med-kit but could always claim that he used it on someone else instead.  Since no one knows who gets the med-kit, and he's made a good case for being innocent by suggesting it, he is one of the most likely people to get a med-kit used on him, meaning there is a very good chance his kill will go through, and even if it doesn't, he's bought himself one last round (with lowered suspicion, especially since his strategy would have "worked").

 

Alvron is definitely clever enough to come up with that strategy.  He's been very sneaky, and I'm getting more convinced he is just a really good CC.

Um, thank you?  If I was indeed a CC this would've been a very good plan for me to win the game.  Sadly I'm not evil this game.

 

If you want proof that I'm not evil I can't really provide any.  Except in death.

 

I had considered saying that we could say who we were buying a medkit for and make it so that each one of us is protected by another and then if someone dies we would know who didn't do what they were meant to do but then the CC could just target who they are supposed to protect with the kill instead and win the game.  By not revealing who is protecting who we have the best chance of blocking the kill and gaining another day.

 

If we do get another shot at it then the two uninjured players vote for each other and the wounded one will cast the deciding vote.  It will be a 50/50 shot.  Either they lynch the CC or the CC wins.

 

Unless there is an assassin that cycle too.    Then, with luck, the passenger gets lynched and the CC is assassinated leaving no survivors.  Everyone dead.....  I kinda want this to happen now.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Alvron

[Clanky he/him]

Aanwolf, I had considered that before you had even brought that up and I came up with a few ideas. Since he put the idea on the table and we have no way of deciding who we will all protect he can expect at least one player to buy him a med-kit. Now if as a CC he doesn't buy one for another player and someone gets lynched that could very well leave the other two players unprotected for an easy kill. The more I have thought about this the more I think it doesn't actually clear Alvron.

 

As an offshoot of this I would like to petition Zas. I will be buying you a med-kit. I am almost 100% sure you are not the CC. If you buy me one and one of Alvron/Aanwolf are lynched that means we are both guaranteed to survive this cycle and can lynch whichever of Alvron/Aanwolf survives. A guaranteed victory. That is if you trust me. Please do this is our best chance. Help me Zas678, you are my only hope!

 

After all this thought I unfortunately will not be able to get on before the end of this cycle. Please consider my plan Zas!

 

I am still not very sure about this but since I don't have any more time. Last point on this, would Ren leave an eliminator team with two first time Sanderson elimination players on it? Especially when it is only a 4-man team?. Alvron. 

 

EDIT: I posted this before seeing Alvs above post. However this doesn't change my thoughts. Please consider my plan Zas. 

 

EDIT 2: Basically Zas I am asking you to bet whether  you think I am more likely to be a CC than one of Anwolf/Alvron.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Clanky

[Alvron he/him]

So then Aanwolf..  Looks like it's down to a coin toss.  You gotta ask yourself one question..

 

[Renegade he/him]

1 hour left!  (Also, a reminder: if nobody has more than 1 vote on them at the end of the cycle, then no lynch will take place.)

[Aanwolf]

i am on mobile and can't type much, but Zas: I will happily explain my coin purchases next round if i am still alive...

[Renegade he/him]

The cycle's over!  Who will survive?  Who will die?  Find out all this and more when the write-up comes to forums near you!

[Zas678 he/him]

THE SUSPENSE!!!

[Renegade he/him]

Station 11: End of the Line

It was the dead of night, but The Steelway Express finally rolled into the last station, near the center of Elendel.  Bright candles and new electric lights lit the station, giving it a comforting feeling after the gloom that the passengers had faced.  Nobody was waiting for them at the station, of course, and in the train, the sense of terror in the last four passengers was beginning to rise.

“Four left,” Zane mouthed, shaking his head.  “Out of twenty-two, there are only four of us left.  And, of course, one of us still wants us dead.”

“Make that two,” Nails muttered, jerking a thumb towards the crew cabin.  “The conductor’s a nutjob.  Probably half-koloss or something.”

“Whatever he is,” Old Wolf frowned, “he’s convinced me to never set foot on another train, period.  Y’know, assuming that I survive to get off of this one.”

“That’s the problem, isn’t it?” Doctor McNinja frowned.  “Crazy old Gavin will be coming in here any minute, and will shoot one of us.  So who’s it going to be?”

The four passengers sat in silence, trying not to stare at each other.  They had grown almost close over the course of this insane train ride, and the fact that they’d have to kill another in order to proceed… it was almost unbearable.  Of course, they’d all had enough unbearable things to deal with today.

Gavin swung open the door, almost grinning.  “So, you’ve got him yet?  I’m afraid that I can’t let any of you leave until he’s dead.”

“So you keep reminding us,” Nails sighed.  Then he pointed at Old Wolf.  “It’s gotta be him.  He barely survived your last kill, so I don’t see why he should survive this one.”

“I second that!” Zane shouted.  “Anything to say for yourself, Wolf?”

“Nails,” Old Wolf responded.  “You’ve been hiding pretty well this whole time.  What secrets have you been covering up?”

“You mean besides the nails in my eye?” Nails gestured to his eye.  “None.  I think I’ve made my position so far pretty clear.  I’ve even suggested that we start keeping medical kits in here.  Would that help our unnamed killer?”

Doctor McNinja looked over his fellow passengers.  “But I’m a doctor… why would we need extra medical kits?  I think you’re just trying to make yourself look like a fine, upstanding citizen for saying such a thing.”

“And I’m not a fine, upstanding citizen?” Nails asked, raising an eyebrow.  The passenger car fell silent.

The silence was broken by the all-too-familiar sound of a gunshot.  When the passengers turned to see whom Gavin had killed, they discovered that Nails now had a piece of metal stuck in his other eye.

“I hate you, Gavin Gardre,” Nails mouthed, before slumping over in his seat and falling to the floor, dead.

“Gee, this seems familiar,” Zane sighed, rolling his eyes.  “Let me guess… another innocent killed by your marvelous detective skills, Mr. Gardre?

Gavin gave a long scowl at Zane, but holstered his pistol.  “The three of you still aren’t leaving,” he said.  “Not until that last rusting saboteur is caught!  This can’t be that difficult to figure out, right?  We’ve got three already… four, counting Heatherlocke, so I don’t understand--”

Another familiar gunshot rang out, and a bullet struck Zane in the knee.  “Ouch!” Zane yelled.  “Good thing we’ve started putting medical kits in here!”  Zane pulled out a first-aid kit from a compartment under his seat, and Old Wolf and Doctor McNinja both helped to bandage him up.  Unfortunately, the wound was deep.

“You’re not going to make it much longer,” Doctor McNinja announced.

“What?” Zane shouted incredulously.  “You’re a doctor!  There are medical kits around here!  We’re in Elendel, of all places!  Certainly you can--”

“I’m a doctor,” McNinja frowned, “not a magician.  I’m sorry.”

“Not to interrupt,” Gavin interrupted -- he seemed rather adept in the art of interruption, “but I may want to remind you that someone just shot Zane.  There’s still someone on board here who’s a Coinshot.  Heck, maybe it’s even Zane himself.  But there’s only three of you left, so if you don’t catch that Coinshot, we’re all dead, ya hear me?”  Gavin breathed in, putting a hand to his head.  “Almost over…” he muttered to himself, “It's almost over…”

The last three passengers sat in silence, freedom just outside of their windows.

---

Vote Tally:
Nails (2): Doctor McNinja, Old Wolf
Old Wolf (2): Zane Tevison, Nails

Nails was lynched!  He was a Passenger!
Zane was saved by a Medical Kit!  He has 1 cycle left to live!

Station 11 begins now, and will end in 23 hours.  There will be no Assassination today.  Good luck!

Player List

 

Zane Tevison (zas678)
Jain (Lightsworn Panda)
Symmer Ghetti (Burnt Spaghetti)
Miss Evyn (Lady Eowyn)
Grind (Gamma Fiend)
Senn Conrad-Tekiel (Seonid)
The Pooh with a Name (Araris Valerian)
Locke (OrlokTsubodai)
Seixa (phattemer)
Bortholemew the Blind (Bort)
Vindication (Shallan)
Everton Slade (Bridge Boy)
Doctor McNinja (Clanky)
Nails (Alvron)
Neo (Neodymium)
Penga (jasonpenguin)
Mennet Farrsolin (Adamir)
Leif Erikeller (leiftinspace)
Silent Man (The Only Joe)
Old Wolf (Aanwolf)
Dow (dowanx)
Met-al (Metacognition)

Edited October 13, 2016 by Alvron

[Zas678 he/him]

MY KNEEEEEEE!

[Clanky he/him]

MY KNEEEEEEE!

 

I used to be a train passenger like you till I took a bullet to the knee.

[Aanwolf]

Old Wolf watched with narrowed eyes until Gavin left the car.  Wolf's face grew dark with hatred.  "That man..." he growled, shaking his head and turning to face the others.  "He is a monster."

 

A look of sadness came over his face as he looked at Zane's knee.  "I'm sorry.  I wish there were more that we could do to help you...."  He paused for a moment and seemed to come to a decision.  "Perhaps there is one thing I can do."  He assisted Zane to a seat at a table and motioned for the doctor to join them  "I have some things to say that will interest you and that I hope will help to take Mr. Tevision's mind off the pain."

 

"Gentlemen," he sighed, "we have a dilemma.  I suspect that Gavin will not be satisfied until we are all dead.  At the very least, he is quite insistent that we choose one among us to die.  I find that to be exceptionally cruel, but I don't see a way around it.  So, the question becomes: who will we choose?  I wish no harm to either of you, so I will make this simple.  I suggest that we agree that I, Old Wolf, should die.  I am willing to do this, on one simple condition: that you agree to listen to my story.  I can see that you are skeptical.  You think this is a trick.  I assure you that it is not."

 

"I have considered the situation in depth from all angles, and I realize that there is no way for me to convince either of you to hand the other person over to Gavin.  Once the doctor came up with his plan for you to protect each other, there was no longer anything I could do to make a good case for me over either of you, even after pointing out this fact.  This remains true regardless of who we assume is guilty. At this point I must admit that I have been outplayed."  With that, Wolf turned to Dr. McNinja and gave him a nod of respect.

 

"To prove that despite my predicament, I have no ill intentions toward either of you, I offer you this..."  Wolf pulled a revolver out of his pocket and placed it on the table with the handle facing the doctor, but he left his own hand on top of it. "I believe this will come in handy for you when Gavin returns. I will give it to you if you will promise to hear me out.  Consider it the last request of a dying man."  Wolf looked the two men in the eye in turn.  "Are we agreed?"

Edited July 1, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Clanky he/him]

Doctor McNinja looked around at the last two survivors of the once full train. It was just like the scoundrels cave all over again. Except this time he hadn't killed anyone, in fact he had been trying to save people, even though he had failed. He couldn't save Grind and he knew looking at Zanes injury that he wouldn't make it either. He had tried but he would still be the only passenger getting off the train alive.

 

Doctor McNinja had been surprised by Old Wolfs suggestion that he should be the one killed. By now he had figured out that Old wolf was the last clan member on the train but he had never expected him to agree to die to end this. 

 

This experience despite how horrible it all was had reminded Doctor McNinja of something. He had become a Lawman and a doctor to help people, not for the money. He couldn't take back what he had done in that cave but he could try and make his survival useful. He would become a lawman again, and as his first mission he would kill Gavin the murderer who made all this happen. Doctor McNinja took his Lawman badge out of his pocket, pinned it to his lab coat and looked back to Old Wolf.

 

"Okay Old Wolf, tell us your story."

[Aanwolf]

Old Wolf raised his eyebrow at the sight of the doctor's lawman's badge.  He took his hand off the gun allowing the doctor to take it, then turned to Zane.  "And you, Mr. Tevision?  Are you willing to hear me out as well?"