Mid-Range Game 8: Highborn Intrigue

[Clanky he/him]

Also Hero never really had much success in lynching anyone in his crusade. I am willing to bet at least one of those final four he called out for needing to contribute more in an eliminator.

 

 

EDIT: Ninjad by winter

Edited September 2, 2015 by Clanky

[Macen he/him]

Lopen, I've pointed out that I think Araris bad as well. I'm going to place my vote on him as well. I will see if I can go back and find the posts that made me most suspicious.

[Shallan she/her]

I don't know... so Araria seems suspicious because of day 1 vote shenanigans? It does fit very well, but I am not convinced enough to put a third vote on him. I would take over the contribution crusade, but seeing as the leader was a Conspirator maybe we should just let it die or, as someone mentioned, we should continue it because other Eliminators won't be as active.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I am going to vote for Alvom. If I had a second vote then it would go on Adamir. The two of them seem to be pursuing me without offering much in the way of reasoning. Yeah, I voted for STINK in day 1 and he was innocent. Is there anyone in this game that has voted every cycle and never voted for an innocent? If voting based on our genuine opinion opens up the risk of getting killed when we find out we are wrong then disucssion will drop dramatically. Yeah, I also voted alongside Ripple for Honey (I'm confused as to why this is suspicious, since Honey had made a post but acted contrary to what that post said).

Lopen, I think the wording I used was "a little silly," but I'm on mobile now and it is a bit of a pain to check. Anyway, it is a little silly for the eliminators to stack their votes like that. This was Ripple's first game as an eliminator, but I know from experience that if all of the bad guys are arguing for the same thing it is a lot easier to connect them together. Also, if you think I am an eliminator then you should look back at who voted after I refused to change my vote, and see if you also suspect them. (these people are Alvron, Clanky, and maybe PK, although his vote could have been a ploy, which I personally consider unlikely) Notably, Hero posted in that time frame but did nothing to divert the vote from me (although possibly because it had already been tied). Clanky also is likely good based off of his discovery of Hero. So do you think Alvron is an eliminator in addition to me? I think that is something you should seriously consider before killing me.

If I am an eliminator then I was either betting my life on another random player trying to save me (which seems risky to me, personally) or I was counting on a teammate. But as a villager, unless we get a lucky lynch, my death offers my team as much info as just about any other death.

I'm not sure what else I have to add to the discussion. I am still semi fine with getting lynched since I head off to college at the end of the week, but I would rather it be because I did something stupid than because 2 people mentioned my name early in the game and a couple more tagged along without much of their own reasoning. I also think that the Contribution Crusade is something that is a legitimately good tool that we should invoke if there is no clear target by the end of the cycle, but not let it detract from actual discussion.

 

Edit: Color on Vote

Edited September 4, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I thought I would just check in to apologise for inactivity - I haven't had the best time at home recently, had DofE earlier in the game, and am heading back for my final year of school tomorrow, with all that entails university-wise. 

I shall certainly endeavor to catch up and contribute as soon as I can - be that tomorrow (hopefully) or once the weekend has begun.

At this point I will just put out there, from a cursory read of the last few days, that Shallan has made it towards the top of my list, not least for her post above about the last noble guardsman.

I seriously doubt that I will be able to get anything meaningful written up today though, and following a more analytical read of the thread, my views are likely to change, so I shall refrain from voting this cycle. Sorry.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Araris, I am uncertain about your guilt/innocence, but I also haven't seen a better target yet. Winter seems suspicious because it doesn't seem like she's helped our Noble cause very much, since I don't believe she has voted since her Day 1 vote on Raven. Orlok, I don't know, they haven't been very active lately but I don't know if that is cause to lynch him. I will say that my suspicion on Alvom has grown lately due to his decrease in activity and I will say that I've been suspicious of him since pretty early in the game due to his insistence of me being suspicious because of flimsy evidence. I do find it interesting that your chief accuser(Adamir), hasn't said anything today. With the inactives, I just don't know what to think since Feligon hasn't been online in about 6 days, and Venture doesn't seem to care very much.TheSilverDragon is the most suspicious to me as he has been on but hasn't posted for a while, but Hero was calling attention to him so I don't know if that should alleviate suspicion from him or not.

 

I find the lack of discussion very disappointing, but I don't know what we can do about it now. Would it be okay to ask for another cycle extension, or would that be too much Ren?

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that since Alvron is dead and was innocent I do think that removes a little bit of suspicion from you, but I don't know how much since he didn't know that Hero was guilty and Honey Badger was innocent. Then he died that night with the last thing he said about you is that he thought you were innocent. Which could mean the eliminators killed him so you could use that as a defense in case you were up for the lynch(this may be a little far fetched but I thought I would point it out anyways).

Edited September 2, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Seonid he/him]

Another cycle extension would be nice. I apologize for not being as active.

I'm not going to vote quite yet, but I would like to hear from Adamir. He sends the most suspect to me right now

[Renegade he/him]

Alright, the cycle has now been extended by 24 hours. Good luck!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Oh yeah. I didn't realize that Alvron was dead. So actually it doesn't really make any sense at all for me to be an eliminator, unless PK is also one that made a ploy to try and dissociate himself from Hero.

 

The reason I brought up his name is because 2 votes were placed after I resigned myself to being lynched, any one of which would have saved me. 1 of those was from Alvron who was proven good. One from Clanky who made a bit of a leap to lynch Hero, an eliminator, the next cycle. Then there was PK, who would have killed Hero, an eliminator, if his vote had gone through.

 

Basically, I think that the last bit of the Day 4 lynch and the resulting information we have gained since should soft-confirm me, although not as much as someone like Clanky that actually killed an eliminator.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Thanks Ren! Ok, I hope we can all have some good discussion about killing people now! 

 

Seonid, I was suspicious of Adamir for going after Araris so much with almost no evidence, but with Hero being evil and Honey being innocent I thought he might be right. Of course, it still seems strange that he would go after Araris like that before we knew that so I'm still moderately suspicious of him. I'm thinking that if Araris is innocent that Adamir could be guilty.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

My bad Winter. I was justing stating how I felt about the other people with votes on them. You have been a lot more help than I made it sound and for that I apologize. I would like to hear your suspicions though.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm gonna remove my vote on Araris for now since I do think he's made some good points in his defense. I'm still not sure why Alvron thought you were innocent enough to tie it up but he is a lot more experienced than me in this game so I'll defer to his judgement for now.

[Shallan she/her]

Orlok, I don't quite see your point. It's a definite possibility for the Conspirators to have a Guardsman, particularly since they probably have an Artifabrian as well. And since that is 2 village Guardsmen down, and I didn't think there were more, but I thought the conspirators could have one, I said last noble guardsman. Was there a misunderstanding here? :/

[Clanky he/him]

If the conspirators had a guardsman I would expect them to have corrupted them for the extra kill. If they didn't do it immediately then at least once kipper died since we probably don't have two assassins. 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Yeah, I agree with Clanky. I can't think of a good reason they would pass up an opportunity to get two kills a night. Also, wouldn't it be a little OP since if one of them was going to be lynched they could block it every time? Unless we were lynching the guardsman of course. 

[Shallan she/her]

Oh. I must have missed that if it was said before. In that case, I guess the entire Cobalt Guard is dead. No wonder WOR

Kaladin and the bridgemen had to replace them.

[Clanky he/him]

So just to give you guys a heads up I will be going camping tomorrow and will be without internet for two or three days.

[Adamir he/him]

I've stopped being lazy and actually paid my internet bill, and now to answer the allegations against me. I was mostly suspicious of Araris because he had voted against Stink, and I hadn't noticed him retract his vote until several cycles later when someone else pointed it out to me. As of now, I don't have any suspects, Araris included.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Adamir, you said you were "disqualifying" Araris as a lynch target a couple cycles back and then you proceeded to ask everyone to lynch him the very next Day(if I'm remembering correctly). Then, when Hero is being heavily targeted you vote for Araris once more, giving no reasons whatsoever. You had already been made aware of the fact that Araris had removed his vote on STINK before those two times you voted for him. This is why I'm suspicious of you.

 

I'm gonna do a vote tally now.

 

Edit: Votes

 

Orlok(0): Shallan(didn't color the vote)

Araris(1): Lopen{1}, Macen

Winter(1): Bort

Alvom(1): Araris

Edited September 3, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Paranoid King he/him]

Based on one of Hero's earlier posts where he explained the people he was suspicious of, I suspect that Venture Mistborn is a conspirator. This post was made after Hero was almost killed, so I'm willing to guess he laid a false trail. Because of her positioning in the post and the flimsy evidence against her, I'm willing to bet she's a conspirator.

 

And even if she's not, she hasn't posted much anyway.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

PK, that post doesn't really accomplish much. If as a group we decide to go after an inactive then Venture is a decent option, which I have brought up before. But the fact that Venture hasn't posted much means that we aren't likely to get a response this cycle. I, for one, would like to hear your opinion about myself and the other names that have already been brought up this cycle, since I personally would like to resolve why Adamir and Alvom have been pursuing me so much, and why 2 other people were convinced to vote for me this cycle after events that should have soft-confirmed me. What are your thoughts on the day 4 lynch?

[Paranoid King he/him]

I don't have an opinion on you yet. Or anyone else that was voted for, in fact. And as for the day 4 lynch, it didn't really tell me anything, because of the bandwagon on Hero. I would like to find out the loyalties of Shallan and Hael, though.

 

EDIT: On second thought, I believe you're innocent. I think either Adamir or Alvorn is a Conspirator, although I can't figure out which.

Edited September 4, 2015 by Paranoid King

[Amanuensis he/him]

I want to appologize for my absence. I haven't had enough time to really sit down and type something significant up. Honestly I still don't, but I will try to add some input as well as a vote.

 

I'm sorry, Winter, but I just can't shake my suspicions of you. A lot of it is just this nagging feeling I get in the back of my head whenever I read a post of yours. Maybe it is just a product of the style of play you're using this game. It certainly is a factor, but not entirely the problem. The fact of the matter is, you are one of the more experienced people here, and certainly among the most active in this particular game, and yet I feel like you haven't really made much of an impact on the game, let alone a positive one. Aside from the back and forth you had with Raven on Day One I don't think you've voted once. On top of that you don't really give any solid input on any potential lynch-targets despite your frequent presence. I could be wrong because it's been a little bit since I've reread everything, but I recall you being almost entirely neutral since this game began, except in the case of the protect the seeker conversation early on, which also strikes me as odd. You opposed it because you believe that taking advantage of the roles like that lessens the fun of the game, but the passive playstyle you're doing to me seems equally unfun to me. I just personally believe that at least one of the most vocal players in the game has to be an Eliminator, and of them you stick out the most. I could probably explain this a lot better, maybe even more thoroughly, but I'm short on time and mentally exhausted. If I end up getting you killed and you're innocent I'm going to feel especially bad because you just died in the LG too, but I think the chances of you being evil are way too high for me not to, and given how behind we are something needs to change.

[Shallan she/her]

It seems to me that a lot of different people are getting thrown around, but nobody seems convinced. I mean, we COULD not lynch anyone if we don't have a clear target, but also I know a common Eliminator strategy is to get the village to either lunch nobody or lynch a villager. If we don't get someone today, then our odds are not very good. They probably have 3-4 people left and I think there are 14 total people? If we mess up twice more and they get 2 more free kills, then it's 6-3 or 7-3 village, and that is trending toward 3-1, otherwise known as Mislynch and Lose, since if the village messes up then it's 1-1 the next day, assuming roles don't come into effect. So I guess what I'm saying is that we need to have a trend at least toward 4-1, where the village gets 1 Mislynch before they lose. Better is obviously better, and hopefully we can win sooner. But barring the possibility of additional Guards, Assassins, or Ardents(Con Artists only matter if the above get lynched and Couriers, assuming the conspirators are discrete and/or don't have PMs don't have a big impact either) this is heading from 10-4 to 8-4 if this messes up, to 6-4 if the next one does, and to 4-4 at which point the village has lost. On the other hand, if we get one out of the three lynches right, it will be 5-3 then. 2 right, and it's 6-2. So if they have 4 people we really need to get 2/3 of the next lynches right and then more. If they have 3, which I think is less likely, then it's 11-3 if I am right about 14, and if we get 0, 1, or 2 then it is 5-3, 6-2, or 7-1 respectively. I think they probably have 4, maybe 2 brightlords, an Artifabrian, and a Courier. So we need to either skip this lynch or get it right IF we can't get the next two right. If we can, maybe we should do this one for more information. But right now, I don't see a lot of good leads. Of course, this leads us to ask if there will be any more leads if this lynch doesn't happen. So, by delaying a day are we just getting more time to think or are we actually gathering information? If it's the former, we should probably do a lynch and I'll probably vote for someone. But if anyone thinks they can get more information, we may want to wait. This ending may seem incongruous compared to the length of my post(typed on a vertical smartphone OW FINGER CRAMP) but I'll probably not be able to post for than once or twice a cycle, double that if it is extended(duh).

Partly because of LG14, partly because I finally started WoT 2 days ago and now I'm on book 3 and I am not sure whether the Wheel will let me take a break or force me to keep reading.

Summary:

They probably have 4 people, maybe 3. We need 2/3 of the next lynches to be in a decent position if they have 4. 3, we don't need to be so worried but 2/3 would still be good. So if our odds of getting a conspirator next day improve beyond the loss of a noble, then we should wait. Otherwise, we should lynch someone today. I'll vote maybe 15 min before rollover hopefully, unless someone thinks they can get more info from a no-lynch.

Alvom ninja'd me, and also what do you mean by my loyalties, PK?

Edited September 4, 2015 by Shallan

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Shallan, I believe we have 17 people, not 14, so our situation isn't quite as dire as your post suggests. That being said, it is probably a good idea to lynch someone today for information. I've been trying to figure out the best person to lynch for info, but I can't find anyone that would be  particularly condemning on other people.

 

Also, I've just started book 4 of the WoT series and so far I've loved it!

 

Edit: Alvom, I'm also suspicious of Winter, but mostly because she is an experienced player. At this point I'm suspicious of all the experienced players because Wilson, Mailliw, Kipper, Sart, and Alvron were all innocent. I'm not sure who the most experienced player left is, but with those five being innocent it casts a lot of doubt on the remaining pros.

Edited September 4, 2015 by TheMightyLopen