Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm about to go to bed (just in time for everyone to start arriving). I ask that everyone, whether or not you were involved in any of this, to please post your thoughts of what's happened the past two days. I understand if you might be apprehensive about voicing your opinion because you have no interactions with any of the players in question, but every single players perspective matters to me and should be heard. Being silent only serves to benefit the traitors, as then we can't catch them in their lies if they're quiet and they have a much larger pool of lurkers to hide among. With that being said, here's the most up to date vote tally.

 

Stink (1): Kipper (1), Creccio (1), Wilson (1)

Kaid (0): Kasimir (1)

Wilson (2): Ripple (1), Adavantos (1), Kipper (2)

Kipper (1): Paranoid King (1)

Araris (1): Kasimir (2)

Creccio (1): Bort (1)

Ripple (1): Wilson (1)

 

I still do not agree with killing someone without verification. I will have to review all of my PMs but I'm pretty sure I have no idea what role Wilson is, which concerns me because if she is indeed a loyalist then we might be losing yet another essential asset. Call me paranoid, but after lynching a Kandra D1 I want to be careful. There's no need for us to be hasty.

[Kipper]

 

 

 

I still do not agree with killing someone without verification. I will have to review all of my PMs but I'm pretty sure I have no idea what role Wilson is, which concerns me because if she is indeed a loyalist then we might be losing yet another essential asset. Call me paranoid, but after lynching a Kandra D1 I want to be careful. There's no need for us to be hasty.

 

I'm fairly certain I know her role, and it will not be a catastrophic loss to the village to lose it.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm fairly certain I know her role, and it will not be a catastrophic loss to the village to lose it.

 

Lying down now but I just wanted to say that I really wish you didn't say that. If she is loyal and lives to see tonight that's one less dangerous player the traitors have to consider killing to hit another role of use.

 

Anyway, goodnight.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Adavantos, is there not an inherent contradiction between your two posts?

Post 1) I don't want to risk lynching a player whose role I don't know

Post 2) It was a mistake to tell us her role

Wilson is a player who could well be lynched - and for good reason - not risking lynching a fairly suspicious player because we don't want to know her role or risk losing it seems like a mistake.

I have a post I should get out tonight, and would like to apologise for not being as active as normal - I have had an incredibly busy last few days.

[queensteph she/her]

I have my reasons and while it started as gut at the beginning of the night turn, it solidified with more that I learned. I have fairly compelling evidence that I can trust Kipper, but it's not the kind of thing I'm going to put here. When this happened, he was the logical choice for me to go to since out of the people that I trust, he was the one who will actually discuss and try to work things out. Kas just tells me "No! Don't give me information! I don't need to know that!"

Could you PM me the next Night cycle to discuss why you trust Kipper? I am trying to find someone I know I can trust and any information you can give me to link me to someone that is pretty positively loyal would be great.

 

I thought he was pretty convincing, and I don't 'revel' in unpredictability, it's more like I don't want everyone to be able to read me, which everyone is saying is evil but I've done that in all my games.

Could you elaborate on how "he was pretty convincing" ? To me the fact that you were "joyous" upon receiving information doesn't strike me as suspicious because I would be happy about it too, whether I expressed it or not, but the reason that you are suspicious to me is the way you keep alluding the question of how/when the acclaimed forger exposed himself to you. It's not like you giving the information puts him/her in danger because we aren't asking who it was.

 

Having a Kandra scan Wilson seems like a good idea, except for the fact that that may draw the Eliminator kill to her if she's good. Maybe an Elantrian could protect her this upcoming night cycle as well as the Kandra scanning her. If she's going to get confirmed(as close as possible anyways), then I would rather she doesn't die right away.

 

I agree with this statement and I put emphasis for those that are too lazy to read the whole thing, but want to know what I agree with.

Spaghetti, I'm fairly certain that I was Scanned, for one. I don't know if we have three Kandra or not, but this would probably rule out Wilson being Scanned. (I already said this earlier, but I had to respond to your assumption of Wilson being Scanned, because some irrational part of my brain says that good things will happen if I address a missive to "Spaghetti." Just feels good to write that )

How are you certain that you were scanned? (Not trying to raise amounts of suspicion, I'm genuinely wondering how you could know that someone scanned you.)

 

With two loyalists now dead that means we have 16 full cycles until the traitors can simply overpower us - assuming that the only reason anyone dies is from their kill (we don't lynch anybody and no Mistborns make a kill). If we decide to lynch Stink today and he turns out to be good, than that number will drop to 14 at the start of the next cycle. I ask that all players remove their votes and the Kandra scans Stink tonight to confirm. I have said this before and I will say it again, just because we have the power to kill someone doesn't mean we should. If I didn't have the above reasons to trust Stink and doubt Wilson I would support his death, but unfortunately in this situation there are way too many possibilities that I am not willing to condemn another player to death.

I agree that we should wait on the whole lynch Stink thing since there isn't yet major evidence against him and we don't want to lose a loyal if it's unnecessary. But I do think we should keep our eyes open for any other suspicious people because while I do agree on scanning Stink (and Wilson for that matter) I have no problem with another lynch so long as there is a just cause and suspicion.   

 

I would like to request that all of our mistborn, unless they have solid suspicions, target the inactive players tonight. And by that I mean people that have posted none at all. There is not really a reason for having that sort of behavior and not explaining in the thread at all. It only takes a minute or two to post that you are busy IRL.

 

I don't agree with just killing off people that are most likely loyal, but I would like to hear from them at some point. The reason that I do not agree with this is because the more people we get rid of the closer the Eliminators will get to outnumbering us. So why should we lessen our time of weeding out the eliminators by killing our own?

 

I do trust STINK though. I mentioned in the night phase that he'd sent me some PMs, and I talked to him quite a bit with those. I don't think he is a traitor, or at least that's the feeling I get from him, but if I had to say, I wouldn't really be able to pin down an exact reason why.

This'll probably be all I'll be posting for today, but I'll try and keep up to date on the thread.

Why do you trust him already? One night of talking has cleared all possible suspicions? Seems fishy.

 

 

Ninja'd by 5(?) people while writing this

 

 

Edit: In reply to one of the ninjas. @Kipper as Ada mentioned I don't think it was wise to say that you think her role won't be much of a loss, but at the same time I don't think it's too much of decision-changer to the Eliminators since it's only what you think and not what you know. Even if Wilson does not have a major ability, she is still a good player and it would be sad to lose her if she is loyal.

 

Side Note: Can someone make up a list for me of what Abilities are the most important to what ones are the least important? I am still just a baby at this game and I would like it just for my own personal knowledge.

Edited November 8, 2015 by queensteph

[Kipper]

Could you PM me the next Night cycle to discuss why you trust Kipper? I am trying to find someone I know I can trust and any information you can give me to link me to someone that is pretty positively loyal would be great.

 

 

How are you certain that you were scanned? (Not trying to raise amounts of suspicion, I'm genuinely wondering how you could know that someone scanned you.)

 

I could tell you what she said, but she could probably explain it better. Essentially, I claimed a role that I knew would get me suspicion and would likely get me Scanned, plus I'm just a trustable/likeable guy in general. Feel free to give me your information.

 

Someone told me that they were telling a Kandra to Scan me. Third-hand, but it's all I got.

[RippleGylf she/her]

But since people don't want to go for Stink, I'm willing to look elsewhere. Ripple. You seem a little too certain about me. You're also reading a little over-much into my words to try to twist them to come back on me. I wasn't confident in Stink's role. I admitted that he hadn't fully claimed Forger, so I knew there was a small chance that he wasn't when I first mentioned him being a Forger. I acknowledged this. My questions to him were to figure out the reasons for the discrepancies I had noted. That post was willing to accept that he was being honest about being in contact with a Forger, but since his being in contact with a Forger contradicted something else he'd said, I was trying to sort out what was truth from what was lie.

 

Yet you're saying that I'm "confident concerning [his] role". Why? Perhaps because you want to make people think that I know more than I do? That I'm "confident" about more than I should be? I wasn't any more certain than I should've been based on the way that Stink had acted in my PM with him, and I made that very clear. All of the information from my PM with Stink is here, in the thread. My reason for believing he was Forger, my reason for telling him about Maill. All of it. I made logical assumptions with the information I had. Those were partly wrong, but I still think it was logical.

 

You also reinforce the idea that the Surgebinder's purpose was reverse psychology. If I were a traitor, I'd have no reason to use reverse psychology like that. In fact, I would avoid having my name mentioned in that kind of a note, since it just throws me back into the spotlight--somewhere that I don't particularly like being when I'm evil. I much prefer the sidelines and one-on-one communication. I was already suspected due to the Shallan-lynch and while a note like that could reduce suspicion on me, that gets into the realm of I Know You Knows, and I avoid those like the plague. I would not do that. Go ahead and spin your paranoid webs saying that "well, that's precisely the reason why she would," but the fact remains that I would not and did not. So someone who already seems so certain about me pushing the idea that I did makes me even more wary. Why would you be suggesting that, unless it's part of the plan to get me lynched?

 

 

Patience, young one. It's a virtue.

 

I already felt suspicious of you after the whole Shallan situation. From the wording of your original posts, it seemed like you were absolutely certain that Stink was a forger. However, your argument about the message does make sense. So, I'll retract my vote on Wilson for now.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@queensteph: The thing is, inactive players are a waste. In the Steelheart LG, team good lost the game because of an inactive (and because Wilson is crazy good at being evil). It didn't matter that we had an extra player sitting around at the end of the game. One eliminator can kill 5 inactive players without sweating. So we should get rid of them now for 2 reasons: The threat of being killed might get them to speak up, and one of them might be an eliminator. We can guess at the number of eliminators as around 20%, but until the inactives are gone we can't figure out how many people that are contributing to the game are actually on team evil.

[queensteph she/her]

How are they a waste? I do agree that they might speak up now that their death is being discussed and also that the less people there are the closer we'll get to knowing how many Eliminators there are, but you could say that about just blindly lynching people as well. The lesser the number of players the lesser chances you can be wrong at guessing. That's just simple facts of counting. I'm not ruling out your idea I just simply want to know how exactly killing inactives is an effective way of winning.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Having trouble sleeping so I grabbed my phone to check the thread real quick

@Orlok: I don't see how those two things are contradictory. I advised caution about killing someone who might be valuable but by no means asked someone to say anything if they knew. I should have left a disclaimer advising that it be kept a secret for now but figured people already knew not to.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Adavantos, not supporting lynching a suspicious player on grounds of not knowing their role, and then complaining when you do learn their role is rather interesting...

I do fully support the thread being told that she is fine to lynch, role wise. This allows us to take a decision on one of the most dangerous players in the game, without an external factor prejudicing our choice

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I would say that it makes the game more fun, rather than easier to win. That being said, it does help if we know roughly how many active eliminators we are up against, and clearing out silent players is the only way to determine if an eliminator is among them.

[queensteph she/her]

I was going to mention this in my earlier post, but since it took me so long I forgot to ask,

@Kas What is tunneling? also, what do you mean when referring to the "meta"? I've seen several people say something about like "meta-gaming" this and that and just wanted some clarification.

 

Edit

 

@Araris I see what you mean, and I guess I'm for it, but only towards the inactives that haven't posted at all (which I know you mentioned earlier in the thread). Since just in the past 30 or so hours of this cycle, many people have probably been asleep/at church(as I have already seen several people mention)/busy elsewhere, I don't want to target them as "inactives". Because they most likely do have a real reason for not being on.

Edited November 8, 2015 by queensteph

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Orlok: Interesting, maybe, but also consistent with two subjects I have been advocating frequently. Avoid role reveals, especially in public, and verify a player is evil before we have them killed.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

And how do you propose we do avoid killing players without having them revealed? Any kandra that do scan are going to become instant targets wen they reveal themselves, and we lose the single biggest source of information for the village!

Indeed - it's far more valuable to lynch a traitor on suspicion, and see who defends them, than scan them and have them be lynched without discussion - in the latter case, very little information is gained.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Assuming that they weren't lying to me when they approached me about being a Kandra, I am currently in contact with one. I asked them to scan Kipper last night but they have yet to post either the code word I gave them if he came back as good or evil, so I cannot vouch for what he is quite yet. My guess at this point is they decided to scan me first to make sure I wasn't evil and passed on the info that "if I die then Adavantos is evil" to someone else they sorta trust. Because I promised them I would protect their identity I will not say anything beyond that.

If there is a third Kandra out there, if you find someone that is for sure good it might be smart to send them a PM tonight revealing yourself that way they can act as an intermediary in a similar way.

[queensteph she/her]

If what your talking about was Adavantos' idea about scanning stink then looking at it from his point of view. He supposedly has some peoples trust and so some have probably claimed to him. If he knows a kandra then he could easily have them report back to him whether or not stink was loyal. He could then give us the info on stink in the thread without revealing who the kandra was. (This is all assuming that in this scenario both Ada and the kandra are loyal.) It does of course have flaws since we don't have any proof of who to trust, but I trust Adavantos somewhat, and want to see what he has further to say on the issue. (I know you're sleeping Ada, but please respond when you get the time)  Edit: Ok, Go to sleep Ada...Edit2: Hope you can sleep soon Ada...

 

Also, based on any evidence we have, Stink and Wilson aren't even that suspicious, so I think the reason Ada proposed this idea was because he doesn't (and neither do I) want to lynch someone who could possibly be a forger (Stink) based on some suspicions that are pretty far fetched. While I do agree that there are a couple sound accusations, none of them really seem strong enough to make us need to lynch one of them.

Edited November 8, 2015 by queensteph

[Amanuensis he/him]

Seems I've been stricken with a case of insomnia tonight, so I'm not quite asleep yet.

[STINK he/him]

I'm not the Forger. You could call me the Forgers intermediary if that applies the same way as it would with the Kandra.

I too am going to sleep soon, so thanks for all coming now

[Elkanah he/him]

I'm almost caught up in the thread and will post more when I do. There is a lot of controversy surrounding those who haven't posted so I wanted to say I'm on, but I want to catch up before sharing my opinions.

[Elbereth she/her]

No, I did not make it up. It's this song: 

 I was going to post it along with the rp, but I didn't have the time to find it.

 

I once sung it for a talent show.  

  

Ah! Cool!

I'm about to go to bed (just in time for everyone to start arriving). I ask that everyone, whether or not you were involved in any of this, to please post your thoughts of what's happened the past two days. I understand if you might be apprehensive about voicing your opinion because you have no interactions with any of the players in question, but every single players perspective matters to me and should be heard. Being silent only serves to benefit the traitors, as then we can't catch them in their lies if they're quiet and they have a much larger pool of lurkers to hide among. With that being said, here's the most up to date vote tally.

I'm responding! I don't have much to say, though.

I don't think Wilson is suspicious. Maybe that's just my newness speaking for me, but she feels completely honest.

I'm also not very suspicious of Adavantos, because he's probably posted twice as much as the next highest poster.

As for suspicions, I really don't know. I think Bridge Boy was more suspicious than Adavantos, when both were up for the lynch, though Bridge Boy hasn't said much since then. Stink is... I don't know. I don't particularly suspect him of being traitorous, but I'll still be watching him.

Also, I have no idea about the thing with pms and Mail. I wasn't part of any of that.

Got to go. I will edit more stuff in if I think of it later.

[Arrae]

It turns out I have more time than I thought, yay!

I have a few thoughts about this: 1, something seems fishy about the Wilson STINK thing. I feel like either someone is withholding info or there's some miscommunication, but not that both are eliminators.

2, Adavantos is being really active. I don't think he is an eliminator because of this, he's just being info grabby.

3, I read somewhere that Kipper and Wilson are really good at manipulation. I feel like Kipper is actively trying to seem friendly. "Still feel tainted by that bandwagon" calls conspiracy theory his baby, does a Tigger roleplay, etc. I don't know if this is grounds for suspicion, but I think it will be worth watching him.

Edit: I hate LG cellphones. They are horrible. I hate typing on a phone. I hate autocorrect.

Adavantos: If you are reading this, please go to sleep.

Edited November 9, 2015 by Arraenae

[Elkanah he/him]

 

We can do all the things, you know. Maili's death was one lead. It isn't our only one. We still have yet to make sense of the information from the previous day, as I've already said. Remember all the discussion over the BB-Shallan lynch race? Are you, then, convinced by Bort? What do you think of Bridge Boy? What do you think of the discussion that has emerged since then? (Notice that by focusing on the emergent discussion, we are still taking a step back from focusing on hunting down the Traitor among those who knew of Maili's role.)

We can still discuss strategy: we can consider possibilities. For instance, I have a suggestion, and that is this: all Crew Surgebinders should send something to be put up in the next day's write-up. Repeat, attention all Crew, all Crew, Surgebinders should send something to be put in the next day's write-up, over.

 

I was thinking along the same line as Kas. We obtained a little new information and lost everything else we had spent roughly 36 hours discussing. I agree that Wilson and Stink both look very suspicious. I just don't want to drop everything before we've finished our first trial.

I would still like to hear more from Bort and Bridge Boy. Creccio has explained himself well enough to not be on my top list for now, but I'm still going to keep an eye on him

 

Amusingly enough, I'm considering revising parts of my theory. Looking at it all again, I now think that the results are either:
1. Stink good; Wilson bad
2. Both bad.
3. Neither bad.

And yes, my theory does depend HEAVILY on the idea of a Traitor Surgebinder. If you were a village Surgebinder, and did that, can you...not? Thx luv u <3

 

I'm afraid I don't have anything to add in the case of Wilson v. Stink as I didn't receive pm's from or about either. Everything for me has been hearsay, except what they both agree on. (which as far as I can tell is just that they both knew Maill was a hemalurgist and neither suspect Kipper). I'm kind of in the camp of neither being a traitor because if they are both traitors nominating each other it seems like a really risky move, and both have had good arguments for why the other is bad.

[Kipper]

<snip>

Re: 3, I don't know where you got that information from (off with his head!). It would seem that my reputation has vastly eclipsed my actions. I've been evil once (not counting the first run of this), and I didn't do so well there. Don't recall ever manipulating anyone >>. All I remember about that game, really, is being very depressed near the end because everyone was protected...

I do feel tainted by the bandwagon.

It is my baby. First gimongous theory post I've done.

I typically do one roleplay per game (RP just is not my thing), and it's usually nonsensical like that. I plan to do more with Tigger, and I hope to do more RP in general in future games.

I am trying to seem friendly! I am friendly! Shoot me an out of game PM sometime (seriously, do) and you'll see just how friendly I am. Being extroverted doesn't hurt. Also being good at Scattergories. <-- Probably doesn't help much, but it can't hurt.

See, little things like that Scattergories aside all give you a good impression of me, and make you less inclined to suspect me, unless you're extremely self-aware (which I'm sure all of you are). And why do I want to seem suspicious?

I also abuse ellipses and parentheticals, just want you to know >>

Might as well bare my whole soul...I sometimes pick my nose.

@queensteph Tunnelling is when you have this laser-like focus on another player, and you don't stop to consider anything else, because you are so utterly convinced of that player's guilt. Everything that that player says will just confirm your suspicions (confirmation bias), and you may even begin to suspect those who defend the player.

For a good example, see Deathclutch tunnelling me in MR9, I think Cycle 5. I'll provide a link in an edit.

Hey everyone, note that I originally got in trouble with Deathclutch for a post like the one above, where I noted some possible motivations that everyone else generally leaves un-talked about. I'm trying to create a pattern of me posting these things now, so it doesn't seem unusual anymore.

[Kipper]

For anyone who's interested, the tunnel that ended in my death by Coinshot began here, and was largely based on my post here. It's a good read, especially if it makes you not suspicious of me.

Edit: Sorry for doublepost. Can a mod fix this?

Edited November 9, 2015 by Kipper