Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Amanuensis he/him]

Thank you Spaghetti. Hearing your perspective on today's events is all I wanted.

 

In response, you're right. It is hard to obtain suspicions day one. The only real way to build any is by instigating discussions and analyzing people's responses or lack-there-of. While I don't practice it myself when I'm evil, a lot of eliminators will try to seem underwhelming and often not cast a vote against some this early (without a joke or poke attached). A common strategy is to say "I'm suspicious of this person but won't vote today," or something to that affect.

 

For anyone who wants to know, my earlier opposition towards trust the HI was not my opinion. I noticed that a large number of players were agreeing too much early on. If I had not done so I think that we would have not gotten this many posts - let alone this much activity per player - without it. My intent was to challenge the majority opinion to see who would take advantage of me sticking my neck out, who would stick to their guns, who would be swayed by my counterpoints, or who would just ignore the conversation outright. Additionally I think it is useful in all games for players to consider alternate perspectives, as otherwise they might miss a crack that an eliminator could slide on right through.

 

While I am certainly willing to die today, I am going to place a vote on Bridge Boy. I am of the same mindset as Araris, in that I would like to hear more about why he's voting for me besides a bandwagon. I shouldn't have to say this, but just because someone is being voted for by other players doesn't mean you need to. If you think someone is evil, then do it. If you don't, don't. And if you do vote for someone, please don't do it without an explanation. Even if it's just because your gut is telling to, try to add some reason to it. It's not as hard as you might think, just takes a bit of brainpower to find whats setting you off and put it into words.

 

 

EDIT: Added a not I accidently left out in paragraph one. Also, if that last sentence comes off insulting I did not mean it that way. Thanks.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Adavantos

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

1. He is not our guaranteed ally. The probability that Wyrm would give us zero loyal Hemalurgists is a small one, but it exists. As I said, I was in the spec doc in the previous playthrough and he was toying with the idea. It doesn't say anything about whether or not he did do it, but the probability is non-zero: it is a possibility. Whether or not it is the case can only be discovered later on. Furthermore, recall Wyrm's clarification that he didn't plan the role to be treated as a confirmed Good player. It's not impossible that he would decide to throw further spanners into any attempts by us to do so.

This is a play to make him not seem like a Loyal Hemalurgist. I do not approve of this absurd line of thought. Feel free to kill this Traitor, Traitors.

 

My vote stays on Burnt Spaghetti but I will remind you all there are Feruchemists on the Traitor team that can just lynch whoever they KNOW to be Loyal. Either that or they can tie up the votes so that we don't lynch anyone at all. And we will never know who did it. We need more unity on one singular person if we don't want the Traitors to easily sway the vote.

 

I am still suspicious of Burnt Spaghetti but I am also willing to lynch a non-active member. They are no help to me dead or alive, Traitor or Loyal.

 

END OF LINE.

Edited November 5, 2015 by DeathClutch19

[STINK he/him]

Right now I think people are trying to lynch someone who is helping us, so if the traitors feruchemist does change a vote then could they transfer one to someone that isn't Ada? I mean, is it really worth killing Ada when we can all lynch him on D2 easily? We all need a scapegoat.

 

Also, I'm at the top of Ada's list. Is it rated in terms of who is the best?

Edited November 5, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Amanuensis he/him]

I am still suspicious of Burnt Spaghetti but I am also willing to lynch a non-active member. They are no help to me dead or alive, Traitor or Loyal.

 

As of right now there are only 5 players who have not posted, if I'm not mistaken. Shallan, polkinghorndb, The Honey Badger, dowanx, and Zed. I do not necessarily support lynching any of them over other potential candidates, though.

 

Right now I think people are trying to lynch someone who is helping us, so if the traitors feruchemist does change a vote then could they transfer one to someone else?

 

Also, I'm at the top of Ada's list. Is it rated in terms of who is the best?

 

I'm sorry, but your first question's wording confuses me. Can you clarify?

 

No, it's in the chronological order of the posts.

[Kasimir he/him]

This is a play to make him not seem like a Loyal Hemalurgist. I do not approve of this absurd line of thought. Feel free to kill this Traitor, Traitors.

 

My vote stays on Burnt Spaghetti but I will remind you all there are Feruchemists on the Traitor team that can just lynch whoever they KNOW to be Loyal. Either that or they can tie up the votes so that we don't lynch anyone at all. And we will never know who did it. We need more unity on one singular person if we don't want the Traitors to easily sway the vote.

 

I am still suspicious of Burnt Spaghetti but I am also willing to lynch a non-active member. They are no help to me dead or alive, Traitor or Loyal.

 

END OF LINE.

More disagreement.

 

1. Wait, Kas, what did you just say about the HI?  

 

I have explained why I do not think the assumption that the HI is on our team is necessarily one we should take uncritically. Unfortunately, dismissing a line of reasoning that one does not favour as 'absurd' is not particularly helpful as a rhetorical strategy, let alone on the level of the laws of reason.

 

But none of that's the point. Simply put, this doesn't even matter. My point about it being an assumption that we can even trust the HI to begin with goes out to the non-Hemalurgists, simply because if there are loyal Hemalurgists, then they can safely ignore what I've said and decide to communicate with the HI or not, based on the considerations already raised. But it matters to us because it is dangerous to treat Deathclutch the way we would a confirmed Villager, and I thank Wyrm for his indirect but timely reminder why this is so. In other words, apply caution and a pinch of salt; the same way we would regard any other player who we have some but not indefeasible reason to trust. And really, that's how we should be playing SE anyway: trust, but never trust 100%. Trust, but verify.

 

Not to mention that if we have some reason to think Deathclutch might be on our side, that's kind of more than we have for most players, assuming that everyone, as I do, starts with a position of default suspicion towards everyone else.

 

tldr; Paranoid!Kas is paranoid. And really, as Wyrm pointed out, it's possible to kill the HI...

 

2. Vote shenanigans

 

This discussion has come up before in previous games. My answer: is that really, immediately, prima facie, ipso facto, pro tanto a bad thing? Because I really doubt that. Alright. So vote shenanigans happen. But that's information too. If our own Feruchemists don't monkey with votes, then we effectively obtain confirmation for what is, up to this point, merely 'informed' speculation that Team Evil has Feruchemists. We might want to look at the people they've tied the vote for; we might want to interrogate them further. If we have a kandra, this gives them a good place to start scans. And if we find out they're innocent? Then it tells us too about how the Eliminators are playing this game. It allows us to see who is pushed overly-hard for those people being suspicious: it gives us leads. These leads could be wrong, but you don't play an Elimination game without barking up a few wrong trees engines to begin with.

 

If they kill someone who's confirmed loyal? Once again, we know they have Feruchemists, and we can avoid that in future. We look at who that loyal person has been interacting with. We look at what that person's been saying. It still gives us a place to start, just as opting to lynch someone in discussion gives us a place to start.

 

Now, the one important caveat is that we need to decide which path we're going down. Because if we don't, we're just going to wind up with a confused mess. I am not particularly committed to either option; but I do find it silly to immediately dismiss the possibility of gaining information from allowing vote shenanigans.

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

But that's information too. If our own Feruchemists don't monkey with votes, then we effectively obtain confirmation for what is, up to this point, merely 'informed' speculation that Team Evil has Feruchemists. We might want to look at the people they've tied the vote for; we might want to interrogate them further. If we have a kandra, this gives them a good place to start scans. And if we find out they're innocent? Then it tells us too about how the Eliminators are playing this game. It allows us to see who is pushed overly-hard for those people being suspicious: it gives us leads. These leads could be wrong, but you don't play an Elimination game without barking up a few wrong trees engines to begin with.

 

If they kill someone who's confirmed loyal? Once again, we know they have Feruchemists, and we can avoid that in future. We look at who that loyal person has been interacting with. We look at what that person's been saying. It still gives us a place to start, just as opting to lynch someone in discussion gives us a place to start.

Having the possibility to lynch an eliminator day one

 

OR

 

Have the 100% chance that we lose a Loyalist and gain circumstantial information that the Eliminator's might have a Feruchemist on their team.

 

I'd say having a "place to start" is not as important as lynching a possible eliminator. Especially considering that lynching a possible eliminator gives us just as much a chance to have a "place to start" as letting a Loyalist die does.

 

END OF LINE.

Edited November 5, 2015 by DeathClutch19

[Kipper]

Adavantos (3): Kipper, Arraenae, Bridge Boy

Burnt Spaghetti (1): Deathclutch

Bridge Boy (3): Bort, Araris, Adavantos

Shallan(1): phattemer

...

2. Vote shenanigans

 

<snip>

Now, the one important caveat is that we need to decide which path we're going down. Because if we don't, we're just going to wind up with a confused mess. I am not particularly committed to either option; but I do find it silly to immediately dismiss the possibility of gaining information from allowing vote shenanigans.

But which option are you leaning towards? It's easy to provide discussion without actually taking a position (this probably sounds arbitrarily agressive, but I'm genuinely curious).

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm not going to leave this up to a Feeuchemist. Of the two up for the lynch, I'm not as suspicious of Adavantos. So Bridge Boy it is. Kipper, I know, right? Warnings aren't any fun.

[STINK he/him]

The chances of the feruchemist actually doing something (if there) are probably low but a village feruchemist might decide to get rid of Ada so Bridge Boy. I'm sorry it had to be this way.

Edited November 5, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Shallan she/her]

Hello.

I am probably not going to vote today, but I will try to do so every day from now on.

As for my opinion on the HI: I am fairly certain they would start on our side. We don't have any way to make sure, since our Kandra are probably better off actually scanning people, and no other role can detect alignment. I don't really believe we need to have the Hemalurgists contact the HI. Although Deathclutch probably wouldn't arrange to have them killed(probably=definitely in SE), it isn't a risk we need to take what with all the ways it could go wrong. (Eliminator Hemalurgist, Fake Eliminator Hemalurgist, 2 is still a lot.)

I guess, since nobody else has done this, I will give my thoughts on what the roles should do:

 

HI: I guess just find players' roles. Not the most useful role, to be honest. Possibly could target almost lynched people, and if they are useful then get them not lynched. But they could still be an Eliminator.

Voidbringer: ...I don't think I need to discuss this.

Surgebinder: Don't die, but also use the message in the write-up well. Could be used for confirmation should you ever need to role-claim(don't), but also an anonymous message could be good.

Elantrian: Probably just target yourselves until you find a Kandra or another extremely valuable role.

Forger: Once roles are available, if they're useful then spread them out. Try to pick someone you trust, but also watch out for overwriting an important role (for 2 cycles).

Feruchemist: Right now, we want to know if there are any Traitor Feruchemists, so please don't use your power.

Mistborn: The rules don't actually say you can kill, so just chill. Actually, maybe people that the lynch almost hits.

Kandra: Alignment alignment alignment. Already been mentioned.

BioChromancer: I don't know. People the lynch misses?

Hemalurgist: Don't die if you're loyal, and I don't think you should contact the HI.

[little wilson she/her]

It doesn't have to be between Bridge Boy and Adavantos. I rather think Adavantos is good, and I'm inclined to agree with whoever said that Bridge Boy wouldn't be making these mistakes if he were evil. He's been evil enough to know better. I would suggest the kandra scan both of them to make sure about their alignments.

 

I'm going to vote for Shallan. Her post just now strikes me as off similarly to how Stink's from 15a struck me as off--it's saying stuff, but not really saying anything. It's mostly just repeating what's already been said, and while she gives ideas for what each role should do, it's basic stuff that the roles were probably already going to do. So even that isn't bringing anything new. That's the most obvious area for an eliminator to skate by in: posting a little bit and seeming to be contributing but not actually contributing anything. So my vote's there.

[Kipper]

Actually, I was just about to retract from Adavantos and go for Shallan, but wilson ninja'd me while I was writing this post and said almost exactly what I was going to say.

 

This brings the new vote tally to:

 

Adavantos (2):  Arraenae, Bridge Boy
Burnt Spaghetti (1): Deathclutch
Bridge Boy (5): Bort, Araris, Adavantos, STINK, Mailliw
Shallan(3): phattemer, wilson, Kipper

[Bort he/him]

I know this is going to seem like jumping on a bandwagon, but I really do have to agree with Wilson and Kipper. There is something decidedly off about Shallan's post. Wilson summed it up pretty well.

 

So, Bridge Boy. Shallan.

 

New vote tally:

 

Adavantos (2):  Arraenae, Bridge Boy
Burnt Spaghetti (1): Deathclutch
Bridge Boy (4): Araris, Adavantos, STINK, Mailliw
Shallan(4): phattemer, wilson, Kipper, Bort

[Amanuensis he/him]

I've almost sent a post four times now either retracting my vote from BB or placing it on someone else. But after this turn of events I'm going to leave it on him. I vote the loyalist Feruchemists don't use their ability and we leave it as a tie to see if the traitors will (or even can, for that matter) choose a side.

 

 

EDITED FOR JUSTIFICATION AND FOR A QUESTION FOR WYRM

 

@Wyrm: Do the traitors have access to their doc during day turns like last time? I seem to remember you saying at one point that you realized the dangers of the traitors having perfect communication. I'm assuming that's what you meant as it allowed us to coordinate last time, and given what we just witnessed this information could be extremely useful.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Adavantos

[Wyrmhero he/him]

@Wyrm: Do the traitors have access to their doc during day turns like last time? I seem to remember you saying at one point that you realized the dangers of the traitors having perfect communication. I'm assuming that's what you meant as it allowed us to coordinate last time, and given what we just witnessed this information could be extremely useful.

 

 

When I said that the traitors having perfect communication was too strong, I was referring to the ability to organise a lynch-vote on the Captain. We have had another game in which this was the win condition, and that was far more balanced due to the fact that the Eliminators could only PM one of the other Eliminators once per Cycle, thus it was very hard to organise a precision strike.

 

In answer to your actual question though, they do.

 

Half an hour 'till end of Turn.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Amanuensis he/him]

In answer to your actual question though, they do.

 

Wonderful, so a coordinated vote shift could very well be possible. I don't think this is the case given the stigma associated from the last iteration but that's just something else I have to account for in my analyzation...

 

 

EDITED because I forgot to say thank you

Edited November 5, 2015 by Adavantos

[Creccio he/him]

I am actually Ok with the tie vote play.

 

First, if no LOYAL FERUCHEMIST uses their ability we can infer that the traitor team does not have a ferruchemist, or are willing to not use their abiliity day one in case it becomes a safety card later. As in, the HI scans and sees he/she is a ferruchemist who did not swing the vote and thus is a bit less suspicious.

 

I am not a fan of cycle one lynches, I am just not.

 

Even if you have strong suspicions about X or Y player, if you are not in immediate danger of death, it would be almost even more beneficial to see his reactions to other people and try to pin down even more information.

 

The only conflict i have with the plan is that if the kill does get moved, only so many have posted and only so much information can be drawn and the feruchemist can move even their own vote which means  he could also play as the victim or just want to throw us off..

 

Even with those i believe the tie vote would be the best move. Lets see what happens

[Kipper]

I am actually Ok with the tie vote play.

 

First, if no LOYAL FERUCHEMIST uses their ability we can infer that the traitor team does not have a ferruchemist, or are willing to not use their abiliity day one in case it becomes a safety card later. As in, the HI scans and sees he/she is a ferruchemist who did not swing the vote and thus is a bit less suspicious.

So basically what you just said is that we can't infer anything if the votes are left as they are, because obviously the Eliminators might be fine with it left the way it is. Not sure what that last sentence means.

[Creccio he/him]

So basically what you just said is that we can't infer anything if the votes are left as they are, because obviously the Eliminators might be fine with it left the way it is. Not sure what that last sentence means.

 

It means that if the eliminators are fine with leaving them as is, and the HI finds a ferruchemist, clucth might assume they are on team good instead of his usual suspicions.

 

 

So, whats you opinion on the first sentence then?

[Amanuensis he/him]

As someone who was the Traitor Feruchemist last iteration, I had considered not using my ability N1 for that exact reason, however I ultimately decided that it would be better for our team to kill as many loyalists as possible as quickly as possible with hopes of taking a Kandra out of the game before they could find one of us.

[Bort he/him]

This is exciting. I don't think I've ever been on (or at least, on and awake) for a rollover before.

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

Shallan. Over Bridge Boy and Adavantos anyways.

 

Burnt Spaghetti.

 

End of Line.

[STINK he/him]

Anyone that wants to counter-vote?

[Kipper]

I think it would be a huge mistake at this point to assume anything about any Scanned Feruchemist, regardless of whether or not anything happens with the votes. We won't really have a good idea what the reasoning for the Eliminator Feruchemist (if one exists) was until both Shallan and Bridge Boi are dead.

Edit: Ninja'd by three. Okay, now, we might be able to make some faulty assumptions about a Feruchemist if the votes are monkeyed with, but again, we really won't know the full story until Boi and Shallan are dead.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Kipper

[Amanuensis he/him]

I would if I could, but I can't so I won't :[