Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Kipper]

Kih'parjai, ner vod.

Edit: Ni eparavur takisit, ner vod. Ni digur.

No problem

So you could use us as your Windtalkers, except, oh, you don't know if you could trust us, so that'd be a bad idea. And second, because Mando'a is ridic easy for anyone with a dictionary

Next thing you know, they'll be complaining, "Oh, we don't have dictionaries. Won't you just conform to our cutural homogeneity already?! Rust and Ruin, these people do try our souls!"

I'll stop now, promise.

Edited because somehow I can't spell the plural of "dictionary" right.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Kipper

[Elithanathile he/him]

Adavantos seems to be setting himself up as the center of things, which makes him pretty invaluable to the village. Almost like a certain ori'dush Mand'alor that we know. (Evil King, basically. And yes, this is a reference.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

I dare say, I was thrust into this position by fate; I by no means asked for it, and would gladly give it up if I had the chance. Sadly it seems that the only way that will happen is if I die. Given recent circumstances, its likely that will happen tonight

[Elithanathile he/him]

I would just like to say that you are still following the analogy almost perfectly. Congrats on playing into it's hands. But I did see that you didn't ask for it. But neither did he...

[RippleGylf she/her]

Hey, as long as we're using code fictional languages...

Edit: okay maybe not all fictional...

Edited November 10, 2015 by RippleGylf

[The Cow he/him]

Sorry for the inactivity lads, had an eventful weekend. I'm going to need a bit of time to catch up and all of that jazz.

[STINK he/him]

I have a code we can all use! 

 

It's called the English language, not many people know it.

[Kasimir he/him]

Hey, as long as we're using code fictional languages...

Hey! Stop calling the language of my ancestors a 'fictional language'!

[Just kidding ]

I have a code we can all use!

It's called the English language, not many people know it.

What is this Englis of which you sprechen? I ist not being of teh understanding.

#KascannotintoEnglish

Edited November 10, 2015 by Kasimir

[The Cow he/him]

Alright, I have some idea of what's going on now. Didn't go through the entire D2 thread yet, though. Just the important bits. The Creccio lynch was somewhat expected, but vastly disappointing. Going to look at the captains of the wagon and those suspiciously off the wagon for traitors. That's my first guess, anyway. 

[Arrae]

你们想讲什么话？

(What do you want to talk about?)

 

On average, how successful are village lynches on lynching eliminators? I feel like all we've done is kill two innocent crewmembers and give the eliminators a big advantage. 1 kandra and 1 BioChromancer are dead already from lynches.

 

EDIT: retracted unrelated parts and added other thoughts.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Arraenae

[Amanuensis he/him]

My kanji is rusty but I distinctly see stupid in there

 

 

EDIT: Correction, the character I recognized was fool, not stupid. Also, color

Edited November 10, 2015 by Adavantos

[Kasimir he/him]

你们都是大笨蛋...

 

If you can understand that, it doesn't apply to you.

You probably meant that in jest, but it's better not to go there, I feel. 也许不用这种话吧。。。‘诅咒’/骂臭话是不必要的。。。

[Amanuensis he/him]

So, a few game relevant facts I have to share, for everyone's interest:

1. I have apparently been roleblocked, so come at me traitors
2. The person I had been informed was being Forged the previous night did not receive a new role, so either the "Loyalist Forger" who said they'd do it is a liar or the Kandra is now in the traitor's hands.
3. One of the Feruchemists I know claimed they did not use their ability yesterday, the other one claims that they did as I asked them to confirm it for me
4. Phattmer's vote on Wilson was not accounted for in the write-ups vote tally

Edited November 10, 2015 by Adavantos

[Arrae]

You probably meant that in jest, but it's better not to go there, I feel. 也许不用这种话吧。。。‘诅咒’/骂臭话是不必要的。。。

Yeah, my bad. My Chinese skills are too limited to say much else.

[Kipper]

Ada, couldn't phatt's vote have simply been changed to no one?

[Kasimir he/him]

I have one suggestion to make. I do not know if this is wise. The hour is late, so I'm just gonna do it for myself, and leave everyone else to decide if they want to do it. Remember my talk of the communication network? Adavantos pointed out one difficulty with tracing who Maili might've leaked to is the fact that if Maili was in a 2-person conversation with a Traitor and never mentioned it to anyone else, we'd not be able to find a person that way.
 
Kas's PMs:

1. Kas - Adavantos: Opened by Kas on N1.
2. Kipper - Kas: Opened by Kipper on N1.
3. Kas - Alfa: Opened by Kas on N1.
4. Kas - Wilson: Opened by Kas on N1.
5. Kas - Maili: Opened by Kas on N1; inactive.
6. Kas - Creccio: Opened by Kas on N1; inactive.
7. Phat - Kas: Opened by Phat on N1.
8. Kas - Alv: Opened by Kas on N1.
9. Lopen - Kas: Opened by Lopen on N1.
10. Cow - Kas: Opened by Cow on N1.
11. Kas - Burnt: Opened by Kas on N1.
12. Kas - Bort: Opened by Kas on N1.
13. Kas - Elbereth: Opened by Kas on N2.
14. Kas - STINK: Opened by Kas on N2.
15. Bridge Boy - Kas: Opened by BB on N2.

For purposes of contact-tracing. I see no harm in revealing this information and it might very well be helpful, if we had more of those.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ada, couldn't phatt's vote have simply been changed to no one?

 

Based on the last two day turn's results, I'd reason no. If you look at the vote tally's, the players names remain, but the number in paranthesis is lessened. A perfect example is that Wilson is marked as having been the only person to vote for Ripple but it says (0). In D1 there were four names that were next to Bridge Boy but only the number (3). Therefore, I think this was just a mistake on the GMs part, but nothing critical given it wouldn't have affected the outcome anyway.

 

With that said, it's nearly 1am and I have work in 5 hours so I will be heading to bed. Have a good day / night, ladies, gentlemen.

 

 

EDITED FOR PLURALIZATION AND TO SAY THAT KAS NINJA'D ME BUT I don't know if I agree with the idea so much, given that I am in contact with a lot of "claimed" critical roles and it probably wouldn't be too hard for the traitors to narrow down their identities from knowing that information, hence why I misled Orlok when he asked for the same information from me via PM last night turn

Edited November 10, 2015 by Adavantos

[Kasimir he/him]

Based on the last two day turn's results, I'd reason no. If you look at the vote tally's, the players names remain, but the number in paranthesis is lessened. A perfect example is that Wilson is marked as having been the only person to vote for Ripple but it says (0). In D1 there were four names that were next to Bridge Boy but only the number (3). Therefore, I think this was just a mistake on the GMs part, but nothing critical given it wouldn't have affected the outcome anyway.

 

With that said, it's nearly 1am and I have work in 5 hours so I will be heading to bed. Have a good day / night, ladies, gentlemen.

 

 

EDITED FOR PLURALIZATION AND TO SAY THAT KAS NINJA'D ME BUT I don't know if I agree with the idea so much, given that I am in contact with a lot of "claimed" critical roles and it probably wouldn't be too hard for the traitors to narrow down their identities from knowing that information, hence why I misled Orlok when he asked for the same information from me via PM last night turn

What if you just opened a PM with everyone?

Okay, no, I did not just suggest that, I'm sorry Wyrm... >>

[STINK he/him]

I tried that, then nearly made a PM with the same person twice, so I do not recommend it. 

[Kipper]

In LG10, I made three PMs with the same person to prove I was Hoid.

[The Cow he/him]

Too busy to start convos right now. People PM me so we can get some information flow going. I'm lacking due to my absence, but hope to make up for it here. Got email alerts on so I can get on when I see one go off.

[Clanky he/him]

 

On average, how successful are village lynches on lynching eliminators? I feel like all we've done is kill two innocent crewmembers and give the eliminators a big advantage. 1 kandra and 1 BioChromancer are dead already from lynches.

 

 

Usually the first few lynches are highly unlikely to actually kill any eliminators. However if we don't lynch anyone then the discussion is seriously lacking and then we have less to go on when we actually do start lynching. Also if we don't lynch then the only kills happening are Traitor kills and potentially mistborn kills. That just gives the eliminators an advantage if we as the village don't use our own kill (aka the lynch).

 

I am in the same boat as The Cow in that I won't be starting any PMs tonight as I am quite busy. If anyone does want to talk to me send me a PM and I will be sure to respond.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Clanky

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So I just saw that you voted for me last cycle, Kas. The point of that post was to pull people off of bandwagoning on STINK, because he had 3 votes put on him really fast. I think I overstated what I was saying however, because at that point I was trying to convince myself not to vote on him. I personally don't like STINK's playstyle, and I didn't want that to come out too much in my post, but I ended up overstating the reverse. A more correct statement is that I appreciate the amount of conversation STINK has triggered, and that is how he has been contributing.

[phattemer]

Here are my PMs:

I do not feel like writing this out, so have some pseudocode. (very pseudo)

1->X

REPEAT X>31

IF X=14:X+2=X

OUTPUT(X, 1, "PM with player number" X "started N1 by Phat")

X+1->X

END

[Kasimir he/him]

Araris, thank you for your answer.
 
One more comment I have to make is that with Creccio's death, assuming that we began with a pool of 2-3 Awakeners, the probability that any discovered Awakener [=BioChromancer] is a Traitor is now higher. IMO, if the HI scans an Awakener, we should immediately be suspicious and probably discuss that in thread.
 
Here is my reasoning.
 
1. On Day 1, Alv claimed to have been role-blocked. On Day 2, Adavantos claimed to have been role-blocked.
 
[ASSUMPTION 1]: Alv is not lying.
[ASSUMPTION 2]: Adavantos is not lying.

I argue that it is less likely for an Awakener to randomly role-block people if they're on the side of the Crew. They could, for instance, risk role-blocking a Kandra, a Forger, or an Elantrian. None of which are optimal. Therefore, my conclusion is that the role-blocking Awakener is more likely to be a Traitor than Crew.
 
[Note: We would get a better picture if we knew if Wilson had been role-blocked. If Creccio really did role-block Wilson, then one good point is that this means we now know there was definitely a second, hostile Awakener. Otherwise, it is not impossible that Creccio decided to target Alv on Day One, possibly due to worries about the Wyrm vote and asking for a Forge, and then decided to go for Adavantos on Day Two, since Creccio had been vascillating on whether to trust Ad or not.]
 
Upshot: I consider it probable that the Traitors have an Awakener of their own.
 
2. Given 1 [i.e. if 1 doesn't hold, then 2. becomes pointless], our situation can be modelled after the case of retrieving coloured balls from a bag without replacement. Factor out, for now, the assumption that Forgers will be stamping people with Creccio's role. Assume that we begin with 3 Awakeners. (Really, you can take any value, as long as x > 0.) Assume that at least one of them is evil. With Creccio dead and confirmed as a loyal Awakener, the odds that either of the remaining two is our Traitor has now improved.
 
Imagine a bag, in which you have three balls. Two of them are white, and one of them is black. At the start, your chances of getting a black ball, assuming you pick randomly, are 1/3. But now, imagine you've removed a white ball from the bag and are picking again. Now, you have a 1/2 chance of picking out a black ball. The black ball is our Traitor.
 
[While one might object that a reforged Awakener would only muddy the waters, I suggest that in the case of the Reforged Awakener, there is, hopefully, a way of being able to check; at least, if they were targeted by our Forger.]
 
tldr; I think this is a decent way to cast prima facie suspicion [i.e. defeasible grounds of suspicion], but it shouldn't in itself be the deciding factor. But I brought this up because I think such a possibility should not be overlooked.

 

Oya, Crew!