Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Bort he/him]

I'll have a look through his posts when I am at home tonight then, and see what I think. Then I'll suggest the opposite to you, given how reliable I've been so far this game, lol.

 

Wilson's play to save BB on Day One is something else I'd assume no traitors would do. I don't think we can assume anything.

 

Edit: By the way, does anyone know if there is a way to take a thread, and pick out one person's posts in that thread? Closest I can find is going to their profile and viewing their posts from there, but I can't see a way of narrowing them down to a specific thread.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Bort

[Paranoid King he/him]

Only a sith deals in absolutes.

Wait a minute. Only a sith deals in absolutes, but you're dealing with absolutes right now! You're a sith!

Also, Spaghetti monsters sound way cooler than they actually are.

Also, infiltrating the mint is something you should never do, as it will likely lead to your credit card being revoked.

 

Edit: @Bort, I'd go to the advanced search, (gear next to regular search.) Say I'm trying to find posts made by Adavantos in lg15. Here's the boxes I would fill in.

Author: Adavantos

Find by date: October 22, 2015 (start date of this game) to *current*

Find in forum: Sanderson Elimination

Display results: As Posts

Topics with at least: 18600 views

Result sorting: Last updated time, Ascending

 

It's not a perfect solution and is dependent upon LG15 having more views than any other SE game in that time period, but I couldn't figure out how to get the tags to work.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Paranoid King

[Bort he/him]

Ok, thanks PK. Better than the method I had

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Burnt Spaghetti: Think of it this way: I highly doubt the eliminators would have risked themselves to save BB at that point. He was basically dead (I thought from the next day lynch, turns out it was sooner), and I would think that the eliminators would use that as an opportunity to throw him under the bus and gain credibility as a result, while wasting a Kandra scan to seal the deal. If there is anyone to be suspected from the Kandra vote then I would look at the people who voted for BB early on. The early ones were Adavantos (who we will hopefully have confirmation on soon), PK, Elbereth and Lopen.

 

I don't agree with this logic for one simple fact. Bridge Boy was their Forger, which is probably the most useful role that they could possibly have in the long term. They would have done anything to delay his death as every night he was alive is a night they could gain access to another role over the crew, including having us waste a scan on me over him. This is why I believe Wilson stuck her neck out in the first place for him; better that a Voidbringer, who might be able to waste our time if we had left the Mistborn to attack her, be removed instead of their Forger. That would have been just as bad a scenario for them as us losing the Kandra D1 was.

 

Thank you for inspiring me to write this post. It has convinced me even more that at least one traitor is among those who voted that I be scanned are indeed a traitor, and given me a bit more reason to believe that you are a traitor trying to cover your tracks.

 

No, that's misinterpreting things. On Night One, Adavantos said that he had a Kandra that was going to Scan me. This later turned out to not happen, or was a lie in the first place. Point is, all throughout the day, I wanted that Kandra to reveal my alignment, because I wasn't worried. If I was evil and a Kandra was going to Scan me, I wouldn't have mentioned it multiple times the next day. Just sayin'

 

I can confirm that I was attempting to have a Kandra scan him. However, it turned out to be a bluff by a player who was told they were to be turned into a Kandra. They planned on using the excuse that they scanned me night 1 and would scan Kipper next, but when the forge failed and I called them out, they admitted the truth of the situation.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I guess you can take that stance if you want to. Yeah, having a forger would be (really) useful for grabbing mistborn later in the game. But do you honestly believe that if we hadn't killed BB that he would have survived the next day? And do you think that the eliminators wouldn't have realized the same thing? Like I said, I think that the Kandra vote has info in it like the lynch vote, but I think you are looking in the wrong place.

[Amanuensis he/him]

 Didn't see this edit so I am responding now.

 

Edit: With regards to Kaid, would he have known if he was roleblocked that night? I don't think he would have. He would have just died, with maybe a comment about him being blocked in his death note from Wyrm.

 

The question I would take away from this is, who else knew Kaid's role? Who knew to role block him?

 

Edit 2: Has this Mistborn of yours been confirmed good? I know it is unlikely that the Traitors have a Mistborn, but if there are (or were) 8 of them, it is possible. If they are not confirmed, it is possible they shared their target with the Traitors (either willingly or unknowingly).

 

Yes, he would have known. I was roleblocked N2 and Wyrm sent me a PM informing me just that. As for who else knew his role, he told me he revealed it to Kipper and Phattmer before me, but I don't personally think it's relevant given a Mistborn is responsible for his death and not the traitors, and the fact that he never mentioned it, only that my having the Mistborn attack him was logical.

 

Have they been confirmed good? No. But I am of the mindset that the traitors would not be given one, only the chance to forge one, and that this player has not revealed any of the information I gave them to others. I should note that I info dumped everything I knew on them towards the very end of the last night turn, so even if they did disseminate the information out it wouldn't have gotten very far.

 

Also, @Araris.

 

I guess you can take that stance if you want to. Yeah, having a forger would be (really) useful for grabbing mistborn later in the game. But do you honestly believe that if we hadn't killed BB that he would have survived the next day? And do you think that the eliminators wouldn't have realized the same thing? Like I said, I think that the Kandra vote has info in it like the lynch vote, but I think you are looking in the wrong place.

 

Assuming that they swung the Kandra vote my way and that the Kandra complied with the masses, there is no guarantee Bridge Boy would have been lynched today. In fact, no one seemed willing to have him killed (I might be wrong about this), only scanned. I even advocated we keep him alive until we confirmed his alignment knowing what his role was, and they very well could have used that information to their advantage to keep him around another 96 hours, as if the tables were turned and he actually was our second (and likely last) Loyal Forger, we would be the ones unable to salvage any lost roles, not them. That being said, I am happy that you are looking at things differently than I am. I am by no means saying my thought process is absolutely right, I just believe that given what information I have and what I have observed of the Traitor's strategies so far, that is what they would have done - advocate I get scanned over Bridge Boy to delay his inevitable death. My suggestion, you do analysis of those who voted to scan him, I'll do analysis of those who voted to scan me, and we can compare them together and everyone can weigh in on who - out of all the players - is most suspicious.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

I'll analyse on who voted for STINK, that guy looks pretty dodgy.

Edited November 18, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Kipper]

I can confirm that I was attempting to have a Kandra scan him. However, it turned out to be a bluff by a player who was told they were to be turned into a Kandra. They planned on using the excuse that they scanned me night 1 and would scan Kipper next, but when the forge failed and I called them out, they admitted the truth of the situation.

Yes, exactly. That's what I'm saying. I did not know that the Kandra was bluffing. Yet I repeatedly asked Ada to out my alignment, and I never opposed the Kandra scanning me.

For the rest:

1. I jumped on the Shallan bandwagon, yes, even though it wasn't really a bandwagon at that point. Truth be told, I did not expect anyone else to jump on it, because that kind of "bad vibe" reason is exactly what other people don't like from me.

2. I PMd Wilson, as usual. We talked. There were a couple minorly weird things that she did, but not enough for me to distrust her. At the very end of the night, she told me thing about STINK, and the way she phrased it made me believe it. Thus, when Mailliw died, my immediate thought was "STINK did it." Note that this was before I analyzed the Surgebinder message.

3. I did my Colossus post on the situation, then slowly migrated to the viewpoint of "Wait, Wilson could have done all this so easily; she's the more guilty."

4. The next day, I didn't see any need to rehash everything said the previous day, so I just voted for her, yes.

A couple comments:

A. It's impossible for someone to "start a bandwagon." The first vote is never a "bandwagon." It's a vote. Sure, I may have called on other people to vote with me, but I didn't force anyone to.

B. If you were an Eliminator, would you tie two of your most prominent players together in four or more places, let one of them be killed, and then let a lynch kill the other because he was too closely tied with the first? Don't look at this from the retroactive perspective of "Well, it could have been done." Look at it from the perspective of "Would any Eliminator team ever do this. It's stupid. Why would the Eliminators do that?! Get two of their most prominent players killed of soon? Hmm, maybe they did it because they think Kipper can wiggle out of the lynch, you say. Is this post likely to change anyone's mind who voted for me? Not likely (In case it was about to change someone's mind, though, I'd like to remind you that I have a history of talking about stuff like this).

C. I applaud you for your elaborate setup of this, Wilson. Very good.

[Clanky he/him]

C. I applaud you for your elaborate setup of this, Wilson. Very good.

So you think Wilson's whole plan was to set you up to be lynched? This seems like a silly way of pawning off this all on her. I feel it is much more likely to have all been coincidence then a ploy by Wilson to ensure your death. 

 

2. I PMd Wilson, as usual. We talked. There were a couple minorly weird things that she did, but not enough for me to distrust her. At the very end of the night, she told me thing about STINK, and the way she phrased it made me believe it. Thus, when Mailliw died, my immediate thought was "STINK did it." Note that this was before I analyzed the Surgebinder message.

 

You mean the "Wilson did it" message? That was what made you change your mind about her?

[Bort he/him]

B. If you were an Eliminator, would you tie two of your most prominent players together in four or more places, let one of them be killed, and then let a lynch kill the other because he was too closely tied with the first? Don't look at this from the retroactive perspective of "Well, it could have been done." Look at it from the perspective of "Would any Eliminator team ever do this. It's stupid. Why would the Eliminators do that?! Get two of their most prominent players killed of soon? Hmm, maybe they did it because they think Kipper can wiggle out of the lynch, you say. Is this post likely to change anyone's mind who voted for me? Not likely (In case it was about to change someone's mind, though, I'd like to remind you that I have a history of talking about stuff like this).

C. I applaud you for your elaborate setup of this, Wilson. Very good.

 

Point B... This is the obvious argument to make, as I predicted in my post earlier this cycle. And both Wilson and Kipper are both experienced enough players to know that this argument is obvious, so of course everyone will think 'Well, one of them is outed, the other must be innocent'. It is a dangerous play, but one well within their skill to pull off. Either of them get lynched, outed as guilty, and the suspicion on the other immediately drops to near zero.

 

Point C... Trying to cast suspicion on Wilson for Kipper's decisions. This isn't helping your case, Kipper.

 

I've already said that I could be way off base with this, but I find Kipper's post above to be not very convincing. I'll admit, this could be because I'm already viewing his posts in a suspicious light.

[STINK he/him]

After much investigation and questioning, I can report that STINK is okay.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Yes, exactly. That's what I'm saying. I did not know that the Kandra was bluffing. Yet I repeatedly asked Ada to out my alignment, and I never opposed the Kandra scanning me.

You didn't exactly have a choice. Consider some scenarios:

 

Good Kipper A: "Woah, sweet. I'm being scanned. Now people will trust me. C'mon, Kandra. Publish those results!"

Good Kipper B: "Huh. I'm being scanned. Well, I suppose now I'll be trusted by those with info."

Bad Kipper A: "Great, I'm being scanned by a Kandra. If I protest, I will be assumed guilty. Nothing to do but go along with it and hope the Kandra changes its mind."

Bad Kipper B: "Great, I'm being scanned by a Kandra. I have no choice but to subtly redirect the Kandra to somebody else, while making it seem like I'm okay with being scanned."

 

My point is that, whether good or bad, you'll want to seem like you're okay with being scanned. Whether good or bad, you may want someone else scanned. You can't judge the alignment of a person by how willing they seem to be to have their alignment known.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm a bit worried right now about the general lack of votes being placed. There is a healthy amount of discussion going on which is great, but at this rate I am worried that people are going to sit back and let a no-lynch happen. I'm not really going to be available for much of the rest of this cycle and I haven't had too much time to do any analysis. So my vote will sit where it is probably for the rest of the cycle, unless Honey has posted something substantial by tomorrow morning.

[Kipper]

Good Kipper A: Yes, exactly.

Good Kipper B: I already have info, and a lot of it, so I'm not looking to be trusted by those with info.

Bad Kipper A: Wrong. If I was bad, I would find some way to redirect that Kandra during the night, to avoid the massive headache it would cause later. Let me ask you this: What Evil!Kandra is going to out themselves D2 with a fake evil read to get someone lynched? No Evil!Kandra would do that. So I would get lynched, most likely. This Kandra would most likely be good if they come forward with an evil read, because if they are not, they will be killed by a Mistborn the next night. So there is no way that I would be fine with being Scanned, unless both me and the Kandra were on the same team. That's really what I'm saying. Either both of us are innocent, both are guilty, or I'm innocent and the Kandra is guilty. There isn't really a viable scenario where the Kandra is innocent, I'm guilty, and I still push to reveal the read.

Bad Kipper B: Don't really understand this one. Do you mean during the night or the day?

Nope and nope. See, I don't play mindgames when they are pointless.

[STINK he/him]

Mindgames are weird, like I thought every game had to have a rating but these ones don't?

[Kipper]

Mindgames are weird, like I thought every game had to have a rating but these ones don't?

Oh, you can't read the rating? I swear it's there. If you just peel back a few more layers of packaging, the rating is pretty clear.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Good Kipper A: Yes, exactly.

Good Kipper B: I already have info, and a lot of it, so I'm not looking to be trusted by those with info.

Bad Kipper A: Wrong. If I was bad, I would find some way to redirect that Kandra during the night, to avoid the massive headache it would cause later. Let me ask you this: What Evil!Kandra is going to out themselves D2 with a fake evil read to get someone lynched? No Evil!Kandra would do that. So I would get lynched, most likely. This Kandra would most likely be good if they come forward with an evil read, because if they are not, they will be killed by a Mistborn the next night. So there is no way that I would be fine with being Scanned, unless both me and the Kandra were on the same team. That's really what I'm saying. Either both of us are innocent, both are guilty, or I'm innocent and the Kandra is guilty. There isn't really a viable scenario where the Kandra is innocent, I'm guilty, and I still push to reveal the read.

Bad Kipper B: Don't really understand this one. Do you mean during the night or the day?

Nope and nope. See, I don't play mindgames when they are pointless.

I don't know exactly how you specifically would respond to the situation, I am merely showing that there are multiple ways to react, and "enthusiasm" does not mean "good". Especially when the person points it out themselves.

I'm not saying you're guilty. If fact, you have a 75% chance of being good. I'm just saying that asking the kandra to reveal your alignment does not guarantee that you are good.

[Kipper]

I never said it proves. It is another reason that implies that I'm good.

[Alfa he/him]

In response to the accusation before:

 

Well,  I am not very active. In fact I am very inactive in the last time; with university and "Wheel of Time" I do not have exactly much time for the 17th Shard. Be it as it be, I only can assure you that i am not a traitor knowing exactly that is not much to say.

 

I vote for Kipper, since the Shallan affair still seems suspicious for me.

[Hellscythe he/him]

I am actually the Kandra. Fear not Alvron you have no need to hide me anymore. Just kidding

 

 

Hmm. My strongest suspicions as of now.... probably Bort, Paranoid King, and Burnt Spaghetti. 

 

I'm going to go through the thread after I'm done with my exam and post 5 stronger(or same) suspicions and 5 actual reasons later.

[phattemer]

I don't really like getting into an I-know-you-know. Anything an eliminator team does that pits one of their members in the spotlight is usually not a good strategy. Also, Kaid had told me he was a voidbringer but I didn't see it until after the night. Also, how bout that weather lately? I think the weather has been very good.

[Kipper]

In response to the accusation before:

 

Well,  I am not very active. In fact I am very inactive in the last time; with university and "Wheel of Time" I do not have exactly much time for the 17th Shard. Be it as it be, I only can assure you that i am not a traitor knowing exactly that is not much to say.

 

I vote for Kipper, since the Shallan affair still seems suspicious for me.

And why not Bort? I was quite literally ninja'd by Wilson on that one, while Bort came by it ten minutes later to add a fourth (!) vote.

Also, saying "I am not an Eliminator" is not exactly a good defense.

[RippleGylf she/her]

Sorry, I haven't been able to post lately. I think Kipper's innocent, if only for the fact that he was ninja'd by Wilson. If the eliminators were trying to start a bandwagon on Shallan, they would likely coordinate who would post first.

 

However, Alfa's response that he is "not a traitor" doesn't sound very comforting.

[Alfa he/him]

And why not Bort? I was quite literally ninja'd by Wilson on that one, while Bort came by it ten minutes later to add a fourth (!) vote.

Also, saying "I am not an Eliminator" is not exactly a good defense.

 

 

Actually, it is the only kind of defense somebody can bring, since each strategy could be used by an eliminator to disguise himself. Any other statement is... well, the same statement in more elaborate words.

If any Kandra is willing, he or she can use their check on me (or the HI can, IIRC), but they will realize i am loyal.

[Clanky he/him]

Kipper I won't say that you defence has left me completely satisfied but I am willing to remove my vote for now. I don't think anything you've done deserves this many votes at this point in a day cycle. 

 

Alfa on the other hand has only made an appearance in this game to defend Shallan in a bandwagon that the traitors were a part of and to place a vote on Kipper that pushed it very close to a bandwagon. 

 

EDIT: A ninja (Ripple) apparently also finds Alfa suspicious.

Also Alfa asking to be scanned has been determined time and time again to add nothing to a players innocence. 

 

EDIT: again for vote removal

Edited November 19, 2015 by Clanky