Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 

No worries you're a smart guy so I'm sure you'll figure it out. Just didn't want to spell it out for everyone to see, for obvious reasons, once you do.

 

Anyway, since it's been nearly 24 hours, I might as well shed some light on the Mystery of the Missing Eliminator Kill. I do indeed have the Hidden role, and if my vote reduction last cycle is a testament to anything, it's because I'm telling the truth about that. I debated saving it for this cycle, but was a bit paranoid about being killed before I even had the time to really participate in this game, due to the fact I was too preoccupied last cycle to get on for longer than a few minutes. I put in the order to hide at the same time I voted for Kyn. I didn't want to unintentionally impact the lynch in a meaningful way so I decided to choose a player not at risk of dying and who my gut was relatively suspicious of at the time. My plan was, in the off chance that I was attacked, to lay down some evidence to support that I was actually hiding, as I knew at the time that it would not appear in the write up and thus I needed a vote to disappear to prove it. Because the Hidden role is staggered that means I am vulnerable to death every other cycle, so my intent was to both get protection for those gaps and so that I can use my Aviar's ability without having to fear dying before I can reveal the results.

 

You might be wondering why I waited 24 hours to tell everyone this. Well, at first I thought about just saying it outright after reading the write up, but because I was never told I was attacked I wasn't sure, so I decided it would be best to spark some discussion in the thread regarding it to see if there could be another explanation. That's when luckat chimed in and explained that the Mind Force ability is similar to my own, excect that it can target others, which I had not thought of before. I thought about trying to mislead the eliminators into thinking that was the reason I survived so that they wouldn't attack me again this cycle and I wouldn't have to get protected, but then I realized that could also make me look bad because if people thought I was roleblocked by someone else then they could twist it to say that the reason no one died is because I put a kill order in, which is not what happened.

 

I wanted to see who would actively try to figure out what happened (I'd guess that they're most likely villagers, but could be eliminators who want to mislead us) and who just avoided talking about the lack of an eliminator kill outright (something I find suspicious, personally, because as an eliminator they would have already figured out why their target didn't die, assuming it is me, and wouldn't want to give the villagers any ideas). I also wanted to see if anyone (an eliminator?) would try to implicate me knowing that the most successful way for them to get rid of me would be by lynching me, given my "reputation." Considering I've never survived a game as a villager, I know it's inevitable that I will die this game, but obviously people don't join these games just to get killed (except Stink, apparently), so I decided to use what resources I had at my disposal to delay my untimely demise.

 

Guess I should respond to this part of your earlier post as well. Hmmm, seems to check out. It IS a possibility that you were roleblocked by Mind Force, and so were not able to send in the kill, but I don't know. Doesn't seem likely to me, since you're such a high profile player, you might have reasoned that you would be a target for Mind Force, and so would most likely advise one of your teammates to send in the kill instead of you. You might not have thought of that when you were planning though.

 

All in all though, I would say that it's likely you were the one attacked(if you're telling the truth about your role), though it does kinda surprise me.

 

Okay, so you're asking for Death Sight protection right? I figure that's what you want, since you commented about using your Aviar, and Mind Force blocks everything. Death Sight only protects from one attack though, so if the Traders have a Patji, you will still be vulnerable.

 

 

The reason I think a single player having two Sori is unlikely is because of how it impacts the lynch. It's one thing to have a single player automatically know not to vote for you. But two? That seems like a bit of a stretch. Assuming both Stink and Kynedath really are Sori, that means they would likely do whatever it takes to make sure he doesn't get lynched. That's a lot more powerful than the Trusted side role in LG16, for example, because not only does it remove two potential votes stacking against PK but just about guarantees two votes being used to keep him from dying.

 

As for the bit about the trusted hub, that was more directed on the fact that a player with a Messenger Aviar also was a Sori. While I agree that isn't super dangerous because of the fact that PK can't confirm Kyn is telling the truth without him dying, it does mean that Kyn is free to dump everything he knows onto PK, and that the two would be able to collaborate together without revealing themselves to the Traders. Of course that is impossible now because of Stink's public reveal resulting in PK outing him, but still.

 

Also, my philosophy on coincidences is not that there's always a conspiracy involved, but that there's usually more to the story than what we see at face value. However I do see where you are coming from and am willing to revise my thoughts. It's possible I'm tunneling on Kyn like I did Orlok in QF12 and my mind is just trying to make up reasons for him to be evil instead of finding actual evidence. Though I will leave my vote on him as I'd like to here more people's thoughts on the subject, in addition to my previous post involving my theory on why there was no eliminator kill.

 

 

Hadn't really thought of it that way. Still, it doesn't seem to be something insurmountable. 2 players defending 1 other player from the lynch isn't going to be game-breaking. As it is now, we can just ignore 1 player out of 17 living players for the lynch(Stink and Kynedath are still eligible, but I haven't seen anything from them that I think is lynch worthy yet).

 

It's basically the same as a Seeker group, and there's been a few of those that haven't hurt the eliminators too bad(the AG for example, though I'm not sure if that's the best example since the village was weirdly inactive. I haven't played that many other games with trustworthy Seekers.   ).

 

I don't know that I'd call it tunneling if you're just following up on a suspicion. Though I do understand the feeling about making up reasons for someone to be guilty. I do it all the time. I could probably make a conspiracy theory about every living player.I honestly wish players would tunnel more.  It makes for more discussion when players are accusing other players aggressively(you don't have to be rude when you're trying to kill someone, but that doesn't mean you should go soft on 'em either!).

 

I still have a gut suspicion against Maill, and I have a suspicion about Ripple that I need to look into(but try not to tunnel on, because players love to tell other players that they're tunneling!  ), and some suspicion on Water as well(but I don't remember why. Some other people pointed it out, and I kinda agreed that something he did was suspicious). I would vote on Ripple right now, but I feel like I should wait until I've actually gone back over things first, and decide if she's really the player I'm most suspicious of, and then if she is, actually try to give as much reasoning as possible.

 

Edit: @Arraenae, I figured out Traitor-Trader in LG15/QF11. 

Edited February 2, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Clanky he/him]

Guess I should respond to this part of your earlier post as well. Hmmm, seems to check out. It IS a possibility that you were roleblocked by Mind Force, and so were not able to send in the kill, but I don't know. Doesn't seem likely to me, since you're such a high profile player, you might have reasoned that you would be a target for Mind Force, and so would most likely advise one of your teammates to send in the kill instead of you. You might not have thought of that when you were planning though.

 

All in all though, I would say that it's likely you were the one attacked(if you're telling the truth about your role), though it does kinda surprise me.

 

Okay, so you're asking for Death Sight protection right? I figure that's what you want, since you commented about using your Aviar, and Mind Force blocks everything. Death Sight only protects from one attack though, so if the Traders have a Patji, you will still be vulnerable.

 

 

Hadn't really thought of it that way. Still, it doesn't seem to be something insurmountable. 2 players defending 1 other player from the lynch isn't going to be game-breaking. As it is now, we can just ignore 1 player out of 17 living players for the lynch(Stink and Kynedath are still eligible, but I haven't seen anything from them that I think is lynch worthy yet).

 

It's basically the same as a Seeker group, and there's been a few of those that haven't hurt the eliminators too bad(the AG for example, though I'm not sure if that's the best example since the village was weirdly inactive. I haven't played that many other games with trustworthy Seekers.   ).

 

I don't know that I'd call it tunneling if you're just following up on a suspicion. Though I do understand the feeling about making up reasons for someone to be guilty. I do it all the time. I could probably make a conspiracy theory about every living player.I honestly wish players would tunnel more.  It makes for more discussion when players are accusing other players aggressively(you don't have to be rude when you're trying to kill someone, but that doesn't mean you should go soft on 'em either!).

 

I still have a gut suspicion against Maill, and I have a suspicion about Ripple that I need to look into(but try not to tunnel on, because players love to tell other players that they're tunneling!  ), and some suspicion on Water as well(but I don't remember why. Some other people pointed it out, and I kinda agreed that something he did was suspicious). I would vote on Ripple right now, but I feel like I should wait until I've actually gone back over things first, and decide if she's really the player I'm most suspicious of, and then if she is, actually try to give as much reasoning as possible.

 

Edit: @Arraenae, I figured out Traitor-Trader in LG15/QF11. 

 

The problem with claiming to have used Hidden and to actually have been Mind forced is that whomever used mind force on you would know you lied and they could (hopefully) tell the thread, sure it might get them lynched but it would be worth it to get rid of a trader in my opinion. Also I'm not really sure how powerful the double sori/1 mentor thing really is. I'd say it's actually less powerful than having two Soris with different mentors since you can get two confirmed trappers through their death. This way there is just one target for the traders to kill and then the villagers are out of confirmed players. Basically it acts as a pre-set seeker trust group that can't be expanded, that doesn't seem especially powerful in a game without any real seekers. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay, so you're asking for Death Sight protection right? I figure that's what you want, since you commented about using your Aviar, and Mind Force blocks everything. Death Sight only protects from one attack though, so if the Traders have a Patji, you will still be vulnerable.

 

Yes, I would certainly appreciate Death Sight so that I can use my Aviar tonight and not have to worry about dying. As usual, I doubt the Traders have an additional kill role, but given it's limited use I suppose that's a good enough reason for them to have not used it last cycle, plus there's always the possibility that a Trader!Patji wasn't active enough to decide on a kill. Still, if I ask to be Mind Forced then my Aviar is rendered useless, so I'd much rather be able to use it while I still can than just hope a villager figures out my code word before the Traders do so that we can get some information out of it.

 

I don't know that I'd call it tunneling if you're just following up on a suspicion. Though I do understand the feeling about making up reasons for someone to be guilty. I do it all the time. I could probably make a conspiracy theory about every living player.I honestly wish players would tunnel more.  It makes for more discussion when players are accusing other players aggressively(you don't have to be rude when you're trying to kill someone, but that doesn't mean you should go soft on 'em either!).

 

See, you say this, but the second I try to interrogate PK a bit so that I can fathom his thought process (in MR10, when we were both evil, I saw the inconsistencies in what he was saying and attacked it at first simply because it was too obvious for me to ignore, not only because I wanted to make him reveal being a Scholar - I actually came up with that plan after I posted my response to him) people claim I'm going too hard on him or say I'm jumping on him (I liken that wording to mugging, so definitely don't appreciate it xD), so yeah. I agree that being firm about your suspicions is better than going halfway, as it's a great means to scare people into revealing their true colors, which is also what I did to Orlok in QF12 (I hate that the best examples I can think of for this is when I'm not a villager, but oh well).

 

I still have a gut suspicion against Maill, and I have a suspicion about Ripple that I need to look into(but try not to tunnel on, because players love to tell other players that they're tunneling!  ), and some suspicion on Water as well(but I don't remember why. Some other people pointed it out, and I kinda agreed that something he did was suspicious). I would vote on Ripple right now, but I feel like I should wait until I've actually gone back over things first, and decide if she's really the player I'm most suspicious of, and then if she is, actually try to give as much reasoning as possible.

 

I don't really have much to go on right now, but as it stands Kynedath, Arraenae or yourself, Lopen, are the three I'd most put my money on being evil. Admittedly the foundation of said suspicion isn't the best, but at least in Kyn and Rae's case there's more to it than just the fact that all three of you have been an eliminator in one of the games where I was attacked the very first cycle. I know that you three aren't beyond killing me early when it's advantageous, so naturally I'm wary about you all when it's attempted again for the third game in a row. I suppose that could be used to argue that you three learned your lesson, but last cycle I did nothing to warrant getting protected by another player, so you might have believed it was a safe choice. This is assuming that there's no better explanation about the missing eliminator kill and I'm right about being attacked.

 

I'm tempted to make a tally of how many times I have survived kill attempts since I began this game, how many times I've began with some type of self-protection, and how many times I have been protected by another player, since this seems to be a reoccurring theme for me.

 

Anyway, while Rae's dissection of my use of black text in my last post versus blue could be because she's innocent and honestly believes I could be evil, I want to note that she attempted to implicate me in an extremely similar way when she was an eliminator in QF12, trying to reference a comment I made in the MR10 Eliminator Doc, to turn people away from trusting / protecting me. There's a precedence for her doing it when she's evil but not when she's good, which shouldn't necessarily be damning, but it’s just something that caught my attention and I think is worth pointing out.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

I'm fine with killing Kynedath.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

Wait, didn't you want to be killed to prove that PK was a villager? 

[STINK he/him]

Yeah, but then I found out that Kynedath is supposedly another one that is more suspicious.

[Clanky he/him]

Ok so I have decided to put my vote on Kynedath. While I know it is possible for there to be two Sori's and that theoretically they could both have the same mentor the odds of that coming up from randomly choosing mentors are pretty steep. That's not enough for me to think he's evil but it's still weird. Also the main thing I immediately would think to do if I were a trader with a Messenger aviar this game would be to claim Sori to someone, especially with their being no seeking roles to check any of this. 

 

Also I know that I've played a few other games with Kynedath but I can't really recall his normal play style but in this game all his posts have seemed to be very polished as if he was working very carefully on them as not to slip up.

 

 

Wait, didn't you want to be killed to prove that PK was a villager? 

If we kill Kyn then either PK would be cleared or we would've found a trader, still a win-win.

 

EDIT: Sorry about that kyn

Edited February 2, 2016 by Clanky

[Kynedath]

Ok so I have decided to put my vote on Kynedath. While I know it is possible for there to be two Sori's and that theoretically they could both have the same mentor the odds of that coming up from randomly choosing mentors are pretty steep. That's not enough for me to think she's evil but it's still weird. Also the main thing I immediately would think to do if I were a trader with a Messenger aviar this game would be to claim Sori to someone, especially with their being no seeking roles to check any of this. 

 

Also I know that I've played a few other games with Kynedath but I can't really recall her normal play style but in this game all her posts have seemed to be very polished as if she was working very carefully on them as not to slip up.

 

 

If we kill Kyn then either PK would be cleared or we would've found a trader, still a win-win.

Dude, I'm a guy. And yes it's polished because I am not flailing at people as much as I did in my first game or one that I was an eliminator in or one that I died on day-2 ( I'm looking at you Ada ). 

Also, PK is already cleared. At least one out of STINK or myself are good because of the sheer stupidity of the prospect of the eliminators sending two fake Sori's. Even if one of us were a Trader, the other one is still good and PK therefore a trapper.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Vote Tally

 

(3) - Claimed Sori(proven) Role

(2) - Claimed Sori(proven) Role

(2) - Claimed to be innocent by the other 2

(1) - Claimed to be attacked and Hidden

Water (1) - Hellscythe

You guys are doing great today. sar·casm ˈ särˌkazəm / the use of irony to mock or convey contempt.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Hellscythe

[Clanky he/him]

Vote Tally

 

(3) - Claimed Sori(proven) Role

(2) - Claimed Sori(proven) Role

(2) - Claimed to be innocent by the other 2

(1) - Claimed to be attacked and Hidden

Water (1) - Hellscythe

 

You guys are doing great today.

 

May I ask why exactly Kyn and STINK are proven? Also the lynch definitely isn't set yet. It's just that all the discussion has been around PK and his Soris so that is also where all the votes have went as well.

[Hellscythe he/him]

The role is proven not the players.

[STINK he/him]

STINK.

 

Hellscythe.

 

Just don't like the semi-sarcasm.

Edited February 2, 2016 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Hellscythe he/him]

I take offense to that. That was full-blown sarcasm and I won't have you degrading it.

Water Stink because if you guys are so intent on killing one of the claimed innos I'd rather have Kynedath still here essentially because Kynedath gives out his reads more often than Stink which in turn will help me find the Traders faster. Also if Kynedath really is evil he has more of a chance to slip(or implicate his teammates) than Stink's one liners.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Hellscythe

[Paranoid King he/him]

Also, PK. I'm going to vote for Kynedath again, for the same reasons I outlined yesterday with the additional evidence of him having PM'd PK claiming to be a Sori. While it's possible the GMs would make it so multiple Sori's knew the same player (effectively creating a trusted hub) I personally think that's the opposite of what any GM would want to happen in these games (apart from Water, we've all heard the arguments against Mayor games), so I think it's very likely one of the two are Traders.

Now, if I put myself in a Traders perspective, I can understand establishing a PM with a random player and trying to gain their trust by pretending to be a Sori, but what I cannot understand is revealing it openly in thread along with a self vote. The former is shady and private, the perfect situation for manipulation to ripen, while the latter is unnecessarily risky. I do find it odd that of 18 players they both chose the same exact player (by now you all should know how I feel about coincidences) but personally it makes more sense to me that one of them is lying, and right now I'm leaning towards Kynedath

I'm not exactly the "mayor" type. I misread rules, I'm asleep for 5 hours before the turnover, and I'm not all that active of a player. I can easily see the GM's setting up a person that more than one Sori knows is good. Finding that two sori's chose the same person is no less strange that having a sori and an eliminator choose the same person. So I don't see what additional evidence against Kynedath you would have. And sure, Stink posted in thread, while Kynedath didn't. Looking at his posts, he seems to be rather suicidal recently. Kynedath looks like he's not trying to draw attention to himself. An eliminator might want to do that, sure, but so would a villager, as that would make them a target. I'm not seeing that Kynedath is a greater eliminator suspect than anyone else.

[Water]

Haha you guys are so petty with these omgus votes.

[Arrae]

 

 

Anyway, while Rae's dissection of my use of black text in my last post versus blue could be because she's innocent and honestly believes I could be evil, I want to note that she attempted to implicate me in an extremely similar way when she was an eliminator in QF12, trying to reference a comment I made in the MR10 Eliminator Doc, to turn people away from trusting / protecting me. There's a precedence for her doing it when she's evil but not when she's good, which shouldn't necessarily be damning, but it’s just something that caught my attention and I think is worth pointing out.

 

 

There's no precedence of me doing what I just did as a villager because I've only completed two games as a villager (this game will be my third). Out of these two games, LG15b was my first game, where I was still struggling with the idea of lynches, and I was more focused on being a trigger-happy Mistborn than anything else. In the second game, MR10, I died C1, and spent most of my time socializing in the dead doc and being harassed by Stink and Kipper.

 

That time when I was an eliminator, I misremebered something you said and doubted that you were a kill role. This time, I've quoted three pieces of text out of the MR10 eliminator doc.

 

This time, I am casting doubt on your trustworthiness because I genuinely doubt your trustworthiness.

 

I'd rather not lynch either STINK or Kyn for the sole sake of confirming PK. On the other hand, the situation feels very odd to me.

[Hellscythe he/him]

essentially

I'd rather not lynch either STINK or Kyn for the sole sake of confirming PK. 

At least someone gets it.

 

Haha you guys are so petty with these omgus votes.

Actually I gave an actual reason for voting for Stink tyvm Water. omg his reasons for voting do suck but that's not my actual reason for voting for him. I don't take kindly to being called petty if you didn't notice.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Hellscythe

[STINK he/him]

HS just can't deal with my greatness. Sarcasm? Check. Plenty of Ships? More than HS. Emphasizes? Check.

[Elbereth she/her]

Also, apologies for my absence yesterday. I actually started this post then, but I had to pack and then I lost my keyboard and... basically, stuff happened. I think for the next few days I’ll only be posting once a cycle rather than once a day, since I am currently embroiled in packing and arranging stuff so that I can be gone for a few days. That few days I should still be able to post, though probably shorter posts than this. Anyway.

Here, Arrenae, have fun with this.

First of the Twilight grinned, holding a bright blue bird in her hand as she picked her way through the jungle as quickly as she dared while still moving relatively carefully.

The bird suddenly shrieked very loudly, right into her ear, and went on shrieking, sounding like it was shouting death threats at her. First felt like shouting threats right back.

She quickly muffled it, glaring at its eyes surrounded by fine turquoise feathers. “What’s the matter with you?” she whispered harshly. “Do you want to die in agony?”

It stared back at her.

“Be quiet, or else,” she said, then slowly and carefully took her hand away from its beak. It didn’t shriek again, and she continued on towards her home. Night wasn’t for a while, and she wanted to get some sleep before she came out again. You didn’t wander the jungle at night when you were tired, or else you were never heard from again. And you could never tell what had befallen the vanished: death, or just being maimed or trapped and dying of starvation, or something even worse.

She shook her head. Such morbid thoughts didn’t matter in the long run. If she was going to die, it would happen, and that would be that. Her thoughts were distracting her from getting home, which was just as dangerous.

She walked across the boundary that marked her territory, and relaxed marginally. She was home. Not exactly safe, but being home was good enough.

---

With that said, guess who happens have the most at stake, with the possibility of losing Aviar? Eliminators.

I wouldn’t necessarily say that the eliminators have the most to lose. Eliminators can work together to try to guess code words and gather Aviar from Villages, which is equally dangerous to us. The thought of the Eliminators each having something like 5 Aviar is not exactly a very happy picture, wouldn’t you say?

I generally don't participate in day-1 lynches because I don't feel like people should lynch without proof. The only reason I am agreeing that day-1 lynches are important is because everyone else is going to lynch someone anyways. There is nothing that I can do to stop it. So I make the best of it and gather information.

I’m not putting my vote on you again, but I still don’t like that reasoning. We don’t necessarily have to lynch on the first day. We just do, because enough of us agree that it’s more helpful. And if you feel that D1 lynches aren’t actually good, you can say so. That’s fine. I’ll try to persuade you, of course, but right now it feels like the only reason you’re saying D1 lynches are good is because everyone else thinks so, so you have to make the best of it.

Reason Three: Eliminators intentionally did not attack anyone. Conclusion: Also Possible.

You put up a few reasons for this possibility, but I wanted to bring up a few more you neglected to mention. Basically, the Eliminators thought using their Aviar was more important at that point, or at least moving their Aviar around. While being forgetful does seem the most likely, this is one other possibility.

[Water]

Oh my storms, the sheer level of male posturing going on with you two is really too much.

 

HS, good job guessing my code word! I didn't really try to hide it that much...

[STINK he/him]

You havin' a giggle m8?

[Water]

What the actual storms? No! This is hardly something to laugh about. Curse you GMs for giving such a hard word to fit into a sentence!

[STINK he/him]

Hellscythe. 

 

Still don't like how he's driving a wedge between himself and the Village, even if it is 'sarcasm'. 

 

Water.

 

You think you got a hard word? 

[Water]

Hellscythe. 

 

Still don't like how he's driving a wedge between himself and the Village, even if it is 'sarcasm'. 

 

Water.

 

You think you got a hard word? 

You think you got a reason in Braize to vote me? If not, I'd appreciate that vote being removed. We already know a vote manipulation role is in play, and it would be awful if you got lynched for this next Cycle. I would cry giant salty tears.

[Hellscythe he/him]

You're the one who called me petty. I had no intention of saying anything until you ticked me off.