Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm going to be voting for Ripple for now. You and Ada are my top suspects right now.

[RippleGylf she/her]

I'm going to be voting for Ripple for now. You and Ada are my top suspects right now.

 

Very well. Could you explain why I am one of your top suspects?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Sorry Arraenae. 

 

Ada, in your vote analysis on me, you say I didn't vote on C1, but I voted on Maill.

 

I'll post more later when I have time to do analysis, but I'll put my vote on SilverDragon for now because supposedly he's lurking?

[Water]

Adavantos. Sorry man, I was thinking of a different dude, and conflated stuff with other stuff. :/

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

Well that was sad.  Not only did we lose 2 villagers and a kill role, I didn't even get any Aviar . Rae must've guessed wrong C1. Having no role and no aviar would be brutal.

 

Yeah it would be... not that I would know from personal experience or anything         

I understand. I actually suspect TheSilverDragon far more than you for skulking in the background and will be placing my vote on them instead of you Ripple.

So is this vote to bring me out of the shadows or do you really think I'm a Trader because I'm not. (Sadly I have no way of proving this)

 

I'll post more later when I have time to do analysis, but I'll put my vote on SilverDragon for now because supposedly he's lurking?

 

 

I have a question, why is lurking a bad thing. I know that eliminators could lurk because they don't want to post and be found out, but I lurk all the time, eliminator or town. 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Analysis time! Here goes nothing.

 

1. Stink(claimed Sori) - I sorta believe his claim, therefore I trust him some. I'll stay paranoid of course, but it's more than I have for other players. Post review: Defends PK from Ada(backs up his claim that he knew PK was good a little). Says that Kynedath is good and that he is an eliminator(we should probably lynch him just for this  ). Even though he was voting on himself and saying he would be fine getting lynched, he asks Kynedath to send him a PM for next Cycle(unless he thinks players with messenger Aviar can make PM's at any time they want, which isn't so. They have to request a PM, and it will be made the next Cycle.). Instead of killing himself, he says he would be fine with lynching Kynedath. Votes on Hellscythe, then Water for "sarcasm" in Hellscythe's case, and because Water complained about getting a hard code word. Mocks Mailliw's post about Ada's posts being "off." Again votes on Kynedath.

 

2. Mailliw(???) - Don't really know. Voted on phatt when they were tied on the lynch to save himself. Claimed to have been roleblocked by a beautiful Aviar on the first Cycle I believe? But someone stole his Aviar last Cycle supposedly. Last cycle voted on Water, but then removed it later on and voted on Ada claiming his posts seemed "off." This Cycle votes for Ripple rather than Ada, saying they're his top suspects. I'm guessing he's going after Ripple rather than Ada because unless there is good evidence, it's unlikely he'll get support enough to lynch Ada, especially since the general consensus was that it was most likely Ada who was attacked on C1 buy the Traders. To tell you the truth, I actually agree with him a little about both Ripple and Ada, though with the likelihood of Ada having been attacked, I'm inclined to think he's a trapper.

 

3. Shallan(???) - 2 posts on C1, none on C2. I can't tell either way with her. Maybe she'll decide to post soon.

 

4. Kynedath(claimed Sori) - similarly to Stink, I think he's telling the truth, so I trust him a little. Hasn't voted yet, which I will agree with Ada that that isn't a point in his favor. Kyn, the lynch is the foundation of the game. We need everyone to be actively participating. You said you like to gather information and have proof before you try to lynch someone. Well it's very hard to get actual proof in these games. It's C3. It would be nice to hear your opinions on players.

 

5. TheSilverDragon(???) - Hasn't given any opinions on anyone actually. Has sorta defended himself from votes twice, but hasn't participated in the lynch at all. In response to his last post, lurking isn't inherently eliminator material, but it can be an indication, and my post on you was just to try to make you post and see what you'd do with 2 votes on you. I don't really have any strong feelings about your reaction to said votes, but I will say that I find it suspicious that you have yet to vote on anyone or really try to find the eliminators in thread at all(I can't account for your role, or how you're using your Aviar though).

 

6. Hellscythe(???) - Talked a lot about codes and Aviar. Did say that he thought Arraenae was the most likely person to be a Trapper than any other players at one point very early on, but I'm not sure what he was basing that off of, and obviously he changed his mind. One thing he's done a couple times was mention what players codes could be(Ada's and Stink's on C1, and Water's on C2). It's possible he did that so it would seem like he's putting his ideas in the thread rather than in a doc. Also, when I asked him not to reveal codes(especially mine), he said he never intended to reveal codes and doesn't intend to reveal anymore, so I'm not sure what his intention was when he guessed at both Stink's and Ada's codes(or his intention for revealing Water's code for that matter).

 

That's all for now. Can't really focus very good at the moment.

 

I think I should make it clear that we're kind of in a hurry here. 15 players left. 3 trappers down, and no traders yet, likely making it either 11 trappers/4 traders left or 12/3. If it's 11/4, then we have a plus 7 margin. That's about 3 or 4 mislynches before we lose(mostly it depends on how the protections go, AND that's assuming the traders don't have a patji, which, even though there hasn't been multiple kills stated in the write-ups, is still a possiblity in my mind). If it's 12/3, then it's a 9 player margin, meaning 4 or 5, or maybe even 6 mislynches(again, dependant on how well our protection roles go and if the traders have a patji). I feel like players don't usually realize the urgency and the importance that every single lynch should have. A lot of times when someone is voted on, they'll just defend themselves and that's all they'll do for the Cycle(for example, Ripple and SilverDragon this Cycle, though it's still fairly early in the Cycle, so it's excusable to some degree I suppose), but that doesn't really help us all that much. Our goal is to kill the eliminators, not survive to the end.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Hours and hours went by, Luna and Lit never came back. First of the Morn, Wise of the Day, wondered where they went. It had been so long. He had finished all his duties, setting his traps to prevent fools from ruining his lair. He held out hope that they'd return soon, but the day was coming to an end, and all wise trappers knew you didn't stray into the forest after dark. 

 

Edit: I don't have anything solid on Ripple or Ada, but I'll try to go through the thread tomorrow and see what I can find.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Mailliw73

[Kynedath]

Looking at this, I am more assured that Kynedath is evil. He only seemed to post when he needed to defend himself and disappeared when his life seemed safe. That, on top of the fact that he is one of five players who has not fully participated in the lynch (SilverDragon, RippleGylf , polkinghornbd and Elkanah). As always I am considerably more suspicious of lurkers (those who stand by and watch without trying to make a difference) than I am of players who actively participate and present legitimate reasons for believing someone is an eliminator. Kynedath fits those parameters perfectly, never posting anything that suggests he is suspicious of someone (at least that I can remember). All his posts seem completely neutral to me (apart from his desire to self-preserve, which is understandable from either side) and indirectly accusatory of others (post where he comments on the Stink/Water/HS situation, trying to cast suspicion on anyone whose not getting involved). 

 

4. Kynedath(claimed Sori) - similarly to Stink, I think he's telling the truth, so I trust him a little. Hasn't voted yet, which I will agree with Ada that that isn't a point in his favor. Kyn, the lynch is the foundation of the game. We need everyone to be actively participating. You said you like to gather information and have proof before you try to lynch someone. Well it's very hard to get actual proof in these games. It's C3. It would be nice to hear your opinions on players.

 

I'd love to be more active, but now isn't the best time for me. If you want my suspicions, then I have stated them in a PM and I'll just copy paste them here.

 

So I think that Shallan and TheSilverDragon are sitting in the background too much. They might be watching how things are going and plotting together, but that seems like an easy out. Hellscythe STINK and Water were all bickering at each other, and that might be either a ploy to gather trust if the others die, or it might be a defensive eliminator vs. an aggressive villager. Polking and Elbereth, I can't tell anything at all. I don't have that much of a feel for Elkanah and ripple, so I am a little suspicious of them just for that. Ada, PK and clanky, Ada especially, all seem like they are involved just so that they can hide something (can't really explain these, just gut feelings). 

 

So if you want me to vote, then I will have to vote Elkanah, because I still need more proof and that might help me get it.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Kynedath

[Clanky he/him]

just thought

Yeah it would be... not that I would know from personal experience or anything         

So is this vote to bring me out of the shadows or do you really think I'm a Trader because I'm not. (Sadly I have no way of proving this)

 

 

 

I have a question, why is lurking a bad thing. I know that eliminators could lurk because they don't want to post and be found out, but I lurk all the time, eliminator or town. 

easily 

Lurking is bad because we can't really figure out what someone is thinking easily if they don't talk. Talking helps us find out whether you are good or not, so really it doesn't help yourself and it doesn't help anyone else either. 

 

Well that was sad.  Not only did we lose 2 villagers and a kill role, I didn't even get any Aviar . Rae must've guessed wrong C1. Having no role and no aviar would be brutal.
 

I'm voting for Ripple for trying to implicate voters as evil at the end of the cycle.

 

In other news, Luckat was killed buy the Traders.

Probably

 

@Hellscythe, I merely meant that with the sudden lynch train, it would be quite a surprise if eliminators weren't involved somehow. It is also quite likely that most of the people who voted are villagers.

The Arraenae lynch didn't really have much basis as far as suspicions go. She said something about a Sori with a messenger being unlikely and about the possibility of all three of STINK, PK and Kyn being traders. Hell jumped on her because of those two things and Lopen did next because of that same post being suspicious. PK didn't really say much about his reasoning for his vote and I think it might have been partly because he doesn't want one of his Sori claimers to get killed.

 

So there is at least some basis behind the lynch and I don't think we can assume any of the voters on it are eliminators unless we find out that either STINK or Kyn is a trader. They were the two players most likely to get lynched prior to Arraenae coming up so I could possibility of one (I doubt more than one would risk themselves) trader having voted for Arraenae to protect their teammate like that. 

 

I won't be placing a vote right now because I haven't really had time to look over too much of the end of last cycle or the beginning of this one too much, I also might not make it back online before the end of the cycle if I need to change my vote. like that

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

just thought

easily 

Lurking is bad because we can't really figure out what someone is thinking easily if they don't talk. Talking helps us find out whether you are good or not, so really it doesn't help yourself and it doesn't help anyone else either. 

I get your point, and will try to be more active. Not giving any promises though.

[Hellscythe he/him]

I had a dream I was killed last night(in SE not RL). *shudders*  Let's not make it into a prophecy please.

 

Do any players with Observant have any information?

I'll be honest I targeted luckat with Power Sensing last night only to find out she was dead and had no Aviar xD.

Although she wasn't a high priority target so I wouldn't be surprised if the Observant didn't have any info.

 

Stink why didn't you put your word in your posts?  Your word is heavily implied in the write-up. I agree it's harder than most I've found but I think you could've done it.

[STINK he/him]

It's quite a simple reason actually. 

 

EDIT: Where are da people?

Edited February 4, 2016 by IrulelikeSTINK

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Fourteen hours left!

[Amanuensis he/him]

I had a dream I was killed last night(in SE not RL). *shudders*  Let's not make it into a prophecy please.

 

Do any players with Observant have any information?

I'll be honest I targeted luckat with Power Sensing last night only to find out she was dead and had no Aviar xD.

Although she wasn't a high priority target so I wouldn't be surprised if the Observant didn't have any info.

 

Stink why didn't you put your word in your posts?  Your word is heavily implied in the write-up. I agree it's harder than most I've found but I think you could've done it.

 

I had my Observant bird track a player I thought was likely to be attacked but unfortunately they were not targeted by any other player. Sadly in the same cycle someone guessed my code word correctly and stole my Aviar, so ability wise I'm essentially useless now. For any player with Death Sight who might have protected me last night, don't bother this cycle. I'm going to vote for myself (Adavantos) and hide again so that I can't be killed by the Traders and you can maybe block whoever they try to target. I would personally recommend Lopen, because if the trend of attacking the more helpful / vocal players continues, he'd probably be next on their list. That is, assuming, he isn't one of them himself, which I am slightly concerned of being true, but I'd rather not lose him if he turns out to be good, given how useful he tends to be (especially late game).

 

Also, if you've got power sensing and stumble upon someone with an Observant bird, they might be the one who stole it from me because I doubt there are many of them in the game. I would recommend you don't out it in thread at first just in case they are a villager (don't want to tell the Traitors who to kill), but comb over all of their previous posts for anything that seems suspicious and keep a close eye on them from then on.

 

(1) Kynedath: Stink,

(1) SilverDragon: Hellscythe, Lopen,

(1) Ripple: Mailliw,

(1) Elkanah: Kynedath,

(1) Adavantos: Adavantos

Edited February 4, 2016 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

Is no-one other than Kynedath using PMs? 

 

Also, it's my job to vote for myself thank you very much Adavantos. 

 

I must get out of using the phrase get out of. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Is no-one other than Kynedath using PMs? 

 

Also, it's my job to vote for myself thank you very much Adavantos. 

 

I must get out of using the phrase get out of. 

 

As far as I know, Kynedath is the only known player with a Messenger bird. Probably would be better if we didn't point the rest out publicly, though, so we don't give the Traders another target. On that note, I'd recommend that if you do have a Messenger bird you don't send a PM to me unless you have useful information you want me to announce in thread to keep you safe.

 

I just voted for myself last game (LG16) and got lynched for it, so clearly it's a precedence for me too.

 

In case anyone didn't solve the mystery of my code word, it is connection. That's right, connection.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

So if everyone is fine with Kynedath now (not sure why though), then I might as well do this.

Kynedath.

Hellscythe.

Edited February 4, 2016 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Amanuensis he/him]

So if everyone is fine with Kynedath now (not sure why though), then I might as well do this.

 

I'm not fine with Kynedath, honestly. But I know my vote isn't going to count this cycle because I'd rather preserve my life and free up another protective role than vote for someone no one else seems keen on killing.

 

EDIT: Also, down vote? o.o

 

EDIT2: Nevermind, someone fixed it

 

EDIT3: And it was replaced with an upvote  though I have no idea why.

 

EDIT4: Oh, and because I didn't respond to this earlier, knowing that Mail's missing vote was a GM error and not due to Mind Force or being Hidden, he is now back towards the top.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

Ada, you evil?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ada, you evil?

 

No, are you?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 

EDIT3: And it was replaced with an upvote  though I have no idea why.

 

Accidental upvote! Sorry!   (Actually I just didn't see why there was a downvote on your post, so I was gonna even it out, but I must have upvoted it at the same time someone else did?!)

 

Here's an updated vote tally:

 

SilverDragon(2): Hellscythe, Lopen

Hellscythe(1): Stink

Ripple(1): Mailliw

Elkanah(1): Kynedath

 

Whoa Ada. Getting crazy with the edits there. 

[STINK he/him]

No, are you?

Responding with questions, are we?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Accidental upvote! Sorry!   (Actually I just didn't see why there was a downvote on your post, so I was gonna even it out, but I must have upvoted it at the same time someone else did?!)

 

No worries, someone restored the balance with another downvote, it seems

 

Whoa Ada. Getting crazy with the edits there. 

 

Well I had things to comment on but didn't want to double post. I blame you for not saying something sooner.

 

Responding with questions, are we?

 

Actually I responded with a firm no and just followed it up with what I felt was a proper response xD

[STINK he/him]

Sounds like something an eliminator would say!

[Amanuensis he/him]

Sounds like something an eliminator would say!

 

He literally trolls me with this every single game, usually via PM, however.