Long Game 21: To Reforge a God

[Seonid he/him]

Clarifications:

 

Preservation's self-invest can be blocked by any roleblocking that can affect Shards.

 

Odium does not have to Shatter himself. His win condition is to Shatter the other 9 Shards. That was a type in the original rules.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm on mobile, so apologizies in advance for spelling mistakes.

[insert quote from Lopen here]

After retracting off of DC, I didn't post anything else because I was busy with an end-of-the-year party that lasted until about 15 minutes before I normally get off the computer. I checked back on the thread a little bit, but didn't have many coherent thoughts to type.

I also wasn't online right before rollover. Not much I can say about that. I value my sleep over SE, except when in very active PMs and docs. Those are harder to resist.

 

Yeah, it's a lot of circumstantial evidence that really isn't solid proof. I just personally feel like you're one of the most suspicious players to have not voted. I really don't know what else can be said about my suspicion that you're Hoid. I would like some more opinions about my theory regarding Hoid/Aman/Elb's vote change though. Anyone want to give their opinion/thoughts on what happened, or if they think my theory is correct or not(regardless of who Hoid really is)?

 

 

EDIT: With a little bit of help from Lopen I just remembered that Knight Radiants are actual roles in this game...

Anyway, Kelen is a proto-radiant then, rather than an actual Radiant, don't want to make anyone think I'm accidentally roleclaiming KR.

 

No problem gancho, glad to be of use!

 

So, I think I'm gonna switch my vote from Rae to Aman. I still suspect that Rae is Hoid, but my case against her(along with my suspicion of her) is slightly less than my case/suspicion against Aman.

 

To reiterate, I believe that Hoid secret voted on Aman, but tried to move Elbereths vote as a ploy to get Aman trust(without wasting one of Amans Elantrian uses), but it backfired by killing Elbereth instead. It might have worked too, since I do believe Aman's claim of Elantrian. Anyways, the full theory is over in the Night thread, if you'd like the full reasoning/theory about why I believe Aman is a 17th Shard member.

 

Even if you don't agree with me, I'd still like you to vote! Because voting causes discussion and discussion can help us a lot in catching eliminators!

[Arrae]

Joe's promises that people will stay alive seem to only ensure people's deaths...

I think Cultivation's wasn't random. What's the chance that Odium would randomly attack a player, who not only just happens to be a shard, but who just happens to be the one shard that can unshatter other shards?

Was anybody here in a PM with Nyali?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

My current theory about why Odium attacked Nyali is that he tried to Invest in her during the Day Turn, but it failed, which alerted him that she was a Shard, so he killed her and that's why there was no Odium Investee kill(unless there was no 17th Shard kill for some reason and the kill on Kynedath was the Odium Investee kill?). That would still require a good deal of luck for him because she was Cultivation, but it seems more plausible than him targeting a random person and hitting Cultivation.

 

Seonid, if you're a Shard and another Shard attempts to Invest in you, are you made aware of that?

 

Edit: Also, if Odium's investee attacks a Shard, so their attack fails, is that shown in the write-up?

Edited May 17, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Seonid he/him]

You are not made known of failed Investiture attempts. If a Shard attempts to invest in another Shard, the only one who will know is the Shard that invested.

 

If Odium's Champion attacks a Shard (or if Odium attacks a non-Shard after having made a Champion), the attacks will fail and will not be mentioned in the writeup.

[AliasSheep]

Yeah, it's a lot of circumstantial evidence that really isn't solid proof. I just personally feel like you're one of the most suspicious players to have not voted. I really don't know what else can be said about my suspicion that you're Hoid. I would like some more opinions about my theory regarding Hoid/Aman/Elb's vote change though. Anyone want to give their opinion/thoughts on what happened, or if they think my theory is correct or not(regardless of who Hoid really is)?

 

 

No problem gancho, glad to be of use!

 

So, I think I'm gonna switch my vote from Rae to Aman. I still suspect that Rae is Hoid, but my case against her(along with my suspicion of her) is slightly less than my case/suspicion against Aman.

 

To reiterate, I believe that Hoid secret voted on Aman, but tried to move Elbereths vote as a ploy to get Aman trust(without wasting one of Amans Elantrian uses), but it backfired by killing Elbereth instead. It might have worked too, since I do believe Aman's claim of Elantrian. Anyways, the full theory is over in the Night thread, if you'd like the full reasoning/theory about why I believe Aman is a 17th Shard member.

 

Even if you don't agree with me, I'd still like you to vote! Because voting causes discussion and discussion can help us a lot in catching eliminators!

 

I don't like how you're voting for Aman when he's unable to defend himself, especially when you've switched votes from Aman to Rae to Aman etc. repeatedly.  It seems quite convenient that your suspicions would switch to Aman now he's not here.  Only minor suspicion since you've been suspicious of Aman for the whole game, but something I noticed.

 

But with that out the way, I think your theory makes sense.  Though I don't know of what basis to believe Aman's claim, I don't see why Aman would move one of his own votes, given his concession of being willing to die of the lynch in the game (don't think those were his exact words).  I also don't see the purpose of moving the vote in the first place.  If I'm looking at this right, Trel had 5 votes and Aman had 3.  With the secret vote, that pushes Aman up to 4, but Trel would still be the one being lynched, and I don't see Aman anticipating the secret vote when deciding to move the vote.  So, basically, I can't see the reasoning behind moving the vote in the first place.  The whole situation is kind of confusing to be honest.

 

Also you've said you're suspicious of Elodin and Joe, can I get a bit more information on why you think this?

 

---

 

I'm also getting gut suspicious reading on Conquestor.  His enthusiasm for lynching someone, especially jumping on the chance to lynch Mark in D1.    Admittedly, the enthusiasm for lynching an inactive player in D1 was when at that moment, Aman was the highest voted and it was nearing the end of the cycle/turn, sort of.  He's definitely been defending Aman a lot, plus voting for Mail for simply opposing Aman's planet reveal thing at the beginning.  None of these are massive indicators, but they're making me a little bit suspicious.

[Conquestor he/him]

Yes, sheep that does seem suspicious, but I like Aman. He's always fair and nice to new people. (Like me .) Plus, I feel he is a villager and look at how much discussion he generated while he was here. It just makes sense to keep him around for a bit longer. 

 

Edited May 17, 2016 by Conquestor

[Arrae]

I don't like how you're voting for Aman when he's unable to defend himself, especially when you've switched votes from Aman to Rae to Aman etc. repeatedly.  It seems quite convenient that your suspicions would switch to Aman now he's not here.  Only minor suspicion since you've been suspicious of Aman for the whole game, but something I noticed.

 

I don't think that by itself is suspicion worthy -- otherwise, where do you stop with the suspicion? Is voting on someone when everyone knows they're fast asleep suspicion worthy? This game is long enough for people to have ample time to respond, and I doubt Lopen will be particularly gung-ho about lynching Aman today if he's not able to come back and defend himself.

[leiftinspace he/him]

Devotion, could I be put in a pm with Joe please?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

1. I don't like how you're voting for Aman when he's unable to defend himself, especially when you've switched votes from Aman to Rae to Aman etc. repeatedly.  It seems quite convenient that your suspicions would switch to Aman now he's not here.  Only minor suspicion since you've been suspicious of Aman for the whole game, but something I noticed.

 

2. But with that out the way, I think your theory makes sense.  Though I don't know of what basis to believe Aman's claim, I don't see why Aman would move one of his own votes, given his concession of being willing to die of the lynch in the game (don't think those were his exact words).  I also don't see the purpose of moving the vote in the first place.  If I'm looking at this right, Trel had 5 votes and Aman had 3.  With the secret vote, that pushes Aman up to 4, but Trel would still be the one being lynched, and I don't see Aman anticipating the secret vote when deciding to move the vote.  So, basically, I can't see the reasoning behind moving the vote in the first place.  The whole situation is kind of confusing to be honest.

 

3. Also you've said you're suspicious of Elodin and Joe, can I get a bit more information on why you think this?

 

---

 

4. I'm also getting gut suspicious reading on Conquestor.  His enthusiasm for lynching someone, especially jumping on the chance to lynch Mark in D1.    Admittedly, the enthusiasm for lynching an inactive player in D1 was when at that moment, Aman was the highest voted and it was nearing the end of the cycle/turn, sort of.  He's definitely been defending Aman a lot, plus voting for Mail for simply opposing Aman's planet reveal thing at the beginning.  None of these are massive indicators, but they're making me a little bit suspicious.

I numbered points to respond easier.

 

1. Yeah, it's just that Aman and Rae are my top suspects so far and I don't think I have good enough evidence to lynch Rae, so I'd like to focus on what Aman has done so that we can talk to each other about how we feel about him. I personally believe he's an eliminator and I don't have any other suspects that I'm quite as confident about, so I voted on Aman. If he's not gonna be on at all this Turn, I suppose it might just be best to focus elsewhere, even though I'd rather get this situation cleared up asap, so we can figure out more about Hoid and who the rest of the eliminators are if Aman is evil.

 

2. My main reason for believing Aman's claim is, well, it was at the very beginning of Night 1, when scans can happen and it allowed plenty of time for anyone to counter claim moving Elb's vote, but no one did. And besides, it just makes sense that it was him, given he was one of the players on when the votes shifted towards Trelagist, and he moved a vote off of himself. Which is actually one of my biggest pieces of hard evidence for why he's evil. He didn't need to move the vote, but he did, I believe it was to hide Hoid's vote manip(who we know was also on Elb). It doesn't make much sense from a villagers standpoint, imo.

 

3. Actually, the last thing I said about them was that I trusted them some. Joe, because of a gut read and Elodin because he voted on Arraenae(which is a thin reason to trust someone I know, but I'm not going to be leaning on that trust any time soon). I was initially suspicious of Elodin for I think it was his first post. It just seemed kind of eliminatorish to me. But since then, I haven't seen much reason to be suspicious of him, and the same applies for Joe.

 

4. Conquestor. Hm. Well, I've kind of been reading him as village. Not a lot of reason/logic behind this read. Just gut.

 

Yes, sheep that does seem suspicious, but I like Aman. He's always fair and nice to new people. (Like me .) Plus, I feel he is a villager and look at how much discussion he generated while he was here. It just makes sense to keep him around for a bit longer. 

 

Yeah, Aman is a nice guy and he has generated a fair amount of discussion. But really, the discussion was almost all about him, so it's not like we can use it to make sense of anything since he's still alive. Obviously, I don't agree with keeping him around. But that's my opinion.

 

Aaaand I've been ninja'd. But not by anything I really need to respond to.

[Conquestor he/him]

Master Elodin, The Only Joe, Haelbarde, cloudjumper, Zephrer, Burnt Spaghetti, DeathClutch19, MarkIV, TheMightyLopen, Arrenae, Alvron. These people did not vote, at the end of day one. One might be Hoid.

 

The ones I think are more villager than not are Arraenae and MarkIV. During the night cycle Elodin tried to lynch someone. Could be a nervous eliminator or just forgot the rules. I'm not going to vote, yet.

 

These are facts and a couple of my own thoughts.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Conquestor

[AliasSheep]

> when I hit post and then internet drops out for a second and I lose it all.

Anyway, what I said was that I might of misinterpreted Aman, and he might be back before the end of the turn.

With that out the way, regardless of that Lopen, I still don't see how the actions make sense at all. I can't think of the reasoning behind it, so it just confuses me. And I seem to have missed your last post regarding Elo and Conq.

Conq, can I get reasoning behind you trusting Rae and Mark?

[Alvron he/him]

The ones I think are more villager than not are Arraenae and MarkIV. During the night cycle Lopen tried to lynch someone. Could be a nervous eliminator or just forgot the rules. I'm not going to vote, yet.

 

These are facts and a couple of my own thoughts.

Elodin tried to Lynch someone during the night, not Lopen.  And Lopen has been evil enough times that he wouldn't be nervous.  He's been evil more times than good.

[Conquestor he/him]

Elodin tried to Lynch someone during the night, not Lopen.  And Lopen has been evil enough times that he wouldn't be nervous.  He's been evil more times than good.

Your right, my bad about Lopen. Sorry Lopen about that. So, how many times has Elodin been Eliminator?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 

Non voters:

1. Par Degaton (Master Elodin)

2. Jonly (The Only Joe)

3. Hal Heatherlock (Parodium Haelbarde)

4. Seznith Seridanon (Kynedath) DEAD NOW

5. Alkazar (Zephrer)

6. Bernte Ghetti (Burnt Spaghetti)

7.   (MarkIV)

8. Nila Hamming (Arrenae)

9. Valan Quivar (Quiver) DEAD NOW

10. Second of the Sky (Alvron)

 

Players who didn't vote on Day 1 who are possible suspects for Hoid. I voted on Aman.

 

My theory about why Aman's vote change is suspicious, posted during last Night Turn:

 

 

 

Anyways! Back on track. Here's my current theory about what happened with the votes. Votes are piling up on Aman(at one point he had 4 I believe). There really wasn't a great alternative lynch candidate, but The Young Bard had 2 votes on him at one point, so assuming Aman is a 17th Sharder, that would most likely be where a vote manip would move a vote to. So Aman asks his leader(Hoid) to secret vote on him, to make it seem like the 17th Shard was trying to take advantage of the votes on Aman to kill him without bringing attention to themselves, but also asks that Hoid moves Elbereths vote to The Young Bard, which would make the votes be 3 on Aman(me, phatt, Hoid) and 3 on Bard(voter #1, voter #2, Elbereth). Aman would then last minute vote on Bard, claiming he was saving himself from the lynch(because villagers do that, so it's fine), but it would in actuality kill Bard. He would then explain that he was worried about Hoid secret voting and moving a vote on him to kill him, so he moved Elb's vote to Bard. However, votes started to move away from Bard and onto Trelagist, with players not agreeing with the Bard or Aman lynch. But Hoid was offline when the shift happened, so they couldn't change their orders. Aman, not wanting the vote change to appear on Bard(because he couldn't explain moving a vote to Bard when Trelagist was the more voted on player), used his Elantrian power(yes, I believe his claim, because it makes sense) to ALSO move Elb's vote, but to Trelagist, so that he could more easily explain the vote switch(he would be hoping that his vote change would win the coin flip over Hoids, therefore keeping the previous plan to relieve suspicion of Aman by using the secret vote/vote change hidden). I believe this makes sense, given he really didn't need to use his vote changing power, because he could have moved his own vote to Trel, and made it 6 votes on Trel and only 3 on him(good enough to avoid any vote shenanigans).

 

Honestly, I don't think I can put it in any clearer words Sheep. I can try later though, but I'm busy right now.

 

Also, Alv... I still get nervous as an evil. >>

 

Oh yeah, one more quote for sheep. This is at the end of my theory post about Aman that I reference above:

 

 

 

Edit: Just in case I die, I'm also quite suspicious of DeathClutch for his involvement with Aman and Rae, and Cloudjumper, for his post at the end of last Day Turn and other small reasons which I'd rather not say. I have village reads on Sheep, Joe, Bard, Mark, Hael, Conquestor, Elodin(vote on Rae just now), Araris and phattemer(vote on Aman). Their not all that strong of village reads.

Edited May 17, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Alvron he/him]

Your right, my bad about Lopen. Sorry Lopen about that. So, how many times has Elodin been Eliminator?

My Stats are out of date but I don't have him down as ever being evil.

 

Also, Alv... I still get nervous as an evil. >>

Good to know.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

My Stats are out of date but I don't have him down as ever being evil.

 

Good to know.

 

Didn't Elodin used to be JerleShannara? Because Jerle was evil with you in QF13...

 

[Alvron he/him]

Didn't Elodin used to be JerleShannara? Because Jerle was evil with you in QF13...

Storming name changers.   You are correct.  In that case QF13 was, to my knowledge, their first and only time as evil.

[Arrae]

The music started, and men and women paired up into couples.

 

Nila glanced at the others, then reached for Parth's hands and started moving. Right, left, right, pause. Right, left, right, pause. Right, left, right, pause. Colors, this dance was boring!

 

Nila snuck another peak at the Scadrialans. Most of them just stepped from side to side and talked, but a few were actually having fun. Nila copied them and twirled, her dress flaring in a circle of gold, then spun back towards Parth. He looked surprised for a moment, then caught her hand.

 

"So, how does a worldhopper like you become lord of a dinky little House on a Ruined planet like this?" she asked.

[Master Elodin]

Speaking of my night vote, I did that before, in the Epic gang MR. I'm very forgetful about whether it's day or night.

EDIT:Also, I don't get this "nervous eliminator" thing. Why would a nervous eliminator vote for someone who has expressed no opinion about anyone for the most part. I really feel like you you guys are looking for eliminators in irregularities and then latching on to nonsensical connections.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Master Elodin

[Conquestor he/him]

So, how does a worldhopper like you become lord of a dinky little House on a Ruined planet like this?

 

"I could ask the same of you, but to answer your question, I have been shut out of most of the other nice worlds." They danced to the music and he felt better than he has for a while. "Why are you here?" he asked while the music continued to play.

[Alvron he/him]

EDIT:Also, I don't get this "nervous eliminator" thing. Why would a nervous eliminator vote for someone who has expressed no opinion about anyone for the most part. I really feel like you you guys are looking for eliminators in irregularities and then latching on to nonsensical connections.

It's not really "nervous eliminator", more "excited eliminator" I think they are getting at.  If it's your first or second time being evil you might get excited and forget what half of the cycle it is.  I don't think anyone has done that yet so am unsure if it's a thing.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Alvron

[Master Elodin]

It's not really "nervous eliminator", more "excited eliminator" I think they are getting at.  If it's your first or second time being evil you might get excited and forget what half of the cycle it is.  I don't think anyone has done that yet so am unsure if it's a thing.

It really seems like not a thing, just an excuse to say "Yeah, I did do something useful. I swear!" or just distract people from an actually important point.

[Arrae]

It really seems like not a thing, just an excuse to say "Yeah, I did do something useful. I swear!" or just distract people from an actually important point.

 

Elodin.

 

Eliminators do act differently than villagers. They might be more invested in the game than usual, or have changes in activity, or care about things they normally don't care about. Or, for example, they might be overeager to lynch someone.

 

I don't see why pointing that out distracts people from an actually important point.

[Master Elodin]

Elodin.

 

Eliminators do act differently than villagers. They might be more invested in the game than usual, or have changes in activity, or care about things they normally don't care about. Or, for example, they might be overeager to lynch someone.

 

I don't see why pointing that out distracts people from an actually important point.

Because it's much more likely to be an honest mistake. Also, care to explain what made you vote for me when before it was just a mild suspicion?