Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

The Cycle is over! Write-up coming soon!

[Ecthelion III he/him]

It seems to me like you're looking for any excuse to accuse Elbereth, @Elenion

Edit: 'd

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Again no write-up. I tried. This cycle's interesting, so I might edit it in later.
_______________________________

Metacognition was murdered! He was a Mysteries Cultist Merchant!

No one was recalled!
Aman (1): Eolhandras

To answer a question posed last cycle. Merchant business trips are the only guard action which will not show up in the write-up if successful. Kesegan Guardian and Duelist guard actions will.

Link to the Senate Doc

Edited November 29, 2016 by Alvron

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Thanks, Derethi!

[Elenion he/him]

Score one for the Derethi! (I never thought I'd say that, but I just did).

Ashkelon rose late as usual. He had gone to bed early last night, exhausted by the effort of single-handedly rousing a lynch mob. Who knew it would take so much work! Bribes had to be made, meetings to be assembled, and mercenary agitators to be paid. But it had all paid off, and the night's rest left Ashkelon feeling refreshed. His paranoia was further lessened when he got the report that a Jeskeri Cultist had been murdered in the dead of night. "Hmmm," Ashkelon mused, "If this keeps up I won't even have to move my investments!" He surprised himself with the comment; he was not used to thinking anything optimistic.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

Oooh. Interesting.  That explains part of the reason for no Jeskeri kill last cycle, then. If they didn't just hit a Merchant, I guess.

Still working on my long post. It'll come. Eventually. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Thought that's how the Merchant would go. So I think that's a lot more likely of a reason that there was no kill last night. Especially if it was the Jeskeri kill that was missing, since there's no way I can see Meta not making sure they have a kill in.

[Elenion he/him]

Dang. There goes my plan of lynching inactives.

[Elbereth she/her]

Well, it was his birthday. I could see it. 

Maybe. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just now, Elbereth said:

Well, it was his birthday. I could see it. 

Maybe. 

Even so, I think he'd make sure a teammate got an order in or he'd have put one in just as a backup. I don't see him wasting a kill that he only gets every other cycle.

[Elbereth she/her]

...Yeah. Can't really argue with that. Hm. 

Mek, will the Merchant be informed if they were attacked? 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Let’s look at some of the things Meta said and did throughout his [rather short-lived] life to see if we can gather anything useful from them. My comments are bolded; quotes from Meta are not.

 

“you [The Young Bard] don't want people trusting Maill all that much because you already know that he's not a Derethi due to you being one.”

He poke-voted Lime because “Why vote when you're just going to tell the person what they need to do to get out of it?”

Now is when he said the thing that made me a little suspicious of him from the start (in fact, my next post said “I'm a little suspicious of Meta, but I think I'll hold back on putting a vote on him for now.” Meta said “Does everyone vote for a Senator and a Recall at night or is it just the Senate? Because that changes how we should go about making sure that the Cultists can't maintain a majority there.” The sort of phrasing on that question made me think he really meant to say “how we should go about making sure that the Cultists can maintain a majority there.

“First of all I'm just not seeing why everyone is so assured of Bard's innocence; especially people like Aman and Elenion from the Senate Doc.” I guess this means Bard is not Jeskeri, since it appears Meta really wanted Bard to get lynched. Or it could be Meta playing mind games again.

“Lynching an inactive tells us very little in comparison to lynching someone who has been active.” Tidbits of advice from an eliminator are best not followed. Keep in mind that Conquestor was on his team.

Meta first voted to lynch Elenion and then voted to remove Elenion from the Senate. This clears Elenion of Jeskeri status in my book. Edit: Actually, back then, the requirement for Senate removal wasn't 2 votes, so Meta could have been busing.

After his birthday hiatus, he hopped on to say: “I am suspicious of El[bereth]” and “I don't trust Elenion or Aman all that much either.”

 

Hey [ Seonid ], what have you got to say?

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III
added some stuff

[Elenion he/him]

Okay, guys, Meta's role gives me all the evidence I need. I'm ready to prove to you all that I'm village.

Why I'm not Derethi:

I got Eramit, the full-out Gyorn killed. There was no real evidence against him, only suspicion. If I would have said Village Merchant the suspicion would have been dropped, and there would be no way to prove his role except to burn both his action and a Kesegan Monk's in a strange reversal of a WGG. Most people accepted this at the time, suspecting me instead of being Jeskeri.

Why I'm not Jeskeri:

It's D1. No suspicions are confirmed, no roles scanned. Meta comes along and drops a vote on me (if you don't believe me, check page 7 of the main thread). He had no reason to bus me, and no reason to kill me except for being a senator that wasn't of his faction. It wasn't even in bandwagon, in fact, it was the only vote that I accrued that day (don't believe me, check the vote tallies on page 8). And if you're still not convinced, check out the time he tried to get me booted from the senate on page 8.

In sum: it appears I got my vet without wasting the scan. Nice.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

Since it doesn't really relate to the point of my main post and that post is taking a while, I'll take a break to address this: You're saying you're not Jeskeri because Meta voted for you? No, Meta would never vote on a teammate just for distancing. Of course not. >>

That's not proof. That's not even close to proof. 

*goes back to writing post*

[Mailliw73 he/him]

8 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Since it doesn't really relate to the point of my main post and that post is taking a while, I'll take a break to address this: You're saying you're not Jeskeri because Meta voted for you? No, Meta would never vote on a teammate just for distancing. Of course not. >>

That's not proof. That's not even close to proof. 

*goes back to writing post*

I'm with El on this one. And by El I mean Elbereth. It's a fairly common strategy for an Eliminator to drop a vote on a fellow evil on D1 to try to distance themselves.

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Mailliw73 said:

I'm with El on this one. And by El I mean Elbereth. It's a fairly common strategy for an Eliminator to drop a vote on a fellow evil on D1 to try to distance themselves.

Well dang. I thought I could finally get some opinions down without being second-guessed. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

I'd say we don't investigate anyone in the senate. The proposal right now is Elbereth, but given that cloudjumper and Elbereth have the same alignment, that's a 2/5 chance our scan means nothing.

I personally think we should scan Maill (who we were going to scan the other day) or maybe a semi-active such as Orlok or Kipper.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

I'd say we don't investigate anyone in the senate. The proposal right now is Elbereth, but given that cloudjumper and Elbereth have the same alignment, that's a 2/5 chance our scan means nothing.

I personally think we should scan Maill (who we were going to scan the other day) or maybe a semi-active such as Orlok or Kipper.

There's the chance that El is an elim but didn't want to call Cloud a non-village and her lie to be revealed when he's lynched. I'd only say there's a 20% chance, with maybe an extra 5% due to Cloud.

And about lynches, I suggest we kill an inactive that isn't doing anything to help us anyway. I started on Sart but am willing to kill just about anyone.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Mailliw73 he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

I'd say we don't investigate anyone in the senate. The proposal right now is Elbereth, but given that cloudjumper and Elbereth have the same alignment, that's a 2/5 chance our scan means nothing.

I personally think we should scan Maill (who we were going to scan the other day) or maybe a semi-active such as Orlok or Kipper.

Like Elenion said, there's not proof that El is on Cloud's team. Just that if he's evil, she is guaranteed to be as well. 

Once again, I'm totally fine with that. It's unhelpful to me, but if it clears me for you, then that's great. I personally would like Aman or Elenion scanned. The end of the cycle was a bit uneasy for me concerning Elenion. He seemed to be pushing suspicion on Elbereth quite a bit. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Log #645234

It seems that the local politics have overrun this town, and they're talking about nothing else but whom to lynch next. That Ashkelon character yelling from the rooftops wasn't exactly helping.

Another body turned up in the streets last night. The local gossip says that Meta had belonged to the evil Jeskeri cult and had been killed by a member of Shu-Dereth. I recovered some blood from the attacker, accruing no small amount of distrust in the process. Hopefully the clues I gather through my research will be able to help us defeat this Derethi menace once and for all...     -Aeleus

Come on, folks, get your roleplaying on! It's more fun when there's a story to be had.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Aww. I was worried we'd go the whole time without even one trolling eliminator post. I'm glad to be proven wrong. *proceeds to ignore*

Eramit's? Well I sure fell for it.

[Elbereth she/her]

Okay, I'm going to try posting this again and then hide the original post, because it seems to have broken the forum a bit. 

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Dont you think its a little bit wierd that Bard referred to the jeskeri as another village faction and not as a second evil faction?

I think that as a villager you should refer to anyone who isnt a villager as a potential threat that cannot be ignored and not advise to others to ignore them.

 

Aww. I was worried we'd go the whole time without even one trolling eliminator post. I'm glad to be proven wrong. *proceeds to ignore*

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Well, it does figure seeing that you're using the Elvish name for Varda, lady of the stars, as your username. I apologize.

Always nice to meet a fellow Tolkien fan. 

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Also, in regards to the Jeskeri, I think the lack of a kill means their members were inactive. I wish I got on sooner to check online times, but we might be able to determine the identity of at least one Jeskeri based on who didn't post last night turn. I'll go back and look myself when I get the time, but if anyone else has the freedom to do so sooner rather than later, consider this a request.

So... these people didn't post last night, that I could tell: 
2. Mailliw
8. Straw
12. emilylime
15. Sart
17. Amanuensis
18. Seonid
Meta and Orlok also only posted briefly to excuse their inactivity. 
Now, do I necessarily think it was inactivity that caused the Derethi/Jeskeri not to kill? Maybe, maybe not. We still haven't gotten that response back from Mek, that I've noticed. It's possible. Not sure that it's likely. Or rather, miscommunication and such can happen just as easily as inactivity. This has been clarified (obviously I started writing this post before turnover), and it seems much more likely that it was a Merchant. (I'm a little irritated at Aman that you'd accuse me of being a Jeskeri and also say that the Jeskeri were inactive? You know better. )

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Personally I'm suspicious that the "kill attempt" on Elbereth was a WGG, which means either the Derethi or Jeskeri have a protective role. I'm leaning Derethi because it would line up with the theory that Eramit ascertained my role early on. Orlok and Eol are my next best bets for Derethi, based on my theory with eramit.

Finally. I was getting a little worried as I read through the thread that no one was going to bring up a WGG but me. Glad to see someone's still paranoid enough for that. I mean, it's not a WGG, but I can't exactly prove that. I'm a little confused how that has anything to do with eramit scanning you, though? 

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The Wounded Gazette Gambit is a strategy where if an eliminator faction can attack one of their members without killing them, they will do so to make people trust that player. Generally it's considered a waste of a turn, but what's more important in the long run? One of their players gaining the trust of the village and therefore being able to manipulate them without cause for concern? Or getting another kill off early and having said player still up for scrutiny?

Well. Obviously that didn't work. I will mention the point that I brought up a WGG well before anyone else, when I could've just let Elenion (I think?) go on thinking that I was semi-cleared as a result. That's not particularly strong, though. 

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I'm actually a little glad that the Derethi are active and not the Jeskeri if you're right, because we are about to kill a Derethi. Seeing as you're a duelist, I suddenly feel weaker, because I've already claimed Landlord. As for the Gambit, it's possible, but El was one of the supporters of scanning Eramit. But wait: he dropped out at the very end! This explains everything, assuming you're not Derethi manipulating us all, but it would be awfully risky. But Elbereth confirmed Cloud and Cloud's in the senate! Maybe Cloud is legit and maybe not, but if he's not we're in a bad spot indeed.

Elenion's great conspiracy theory:

1. Eramit, El, and Cloud are the Derethi

2. Eramit gets nominated to be scanned, El goes along but drops at the last minute

3. Cloud gets scanned, El gets the info, claims he's village

4. Cloud makes it onto the Senate

5. Cloud and El control 40% of the Senate vote for the Derethi

6. The Derethi failed because of the lucky scan on Eramit and the Jeskeris' inactivity

7. Cloud didn't actually protect me and instead protected El from the Derethi kill

Well, @Elbereth I think it's time to get some answers.

 

The bolded is what I have problems with. So, I was the second vote to scan eramit. Which, if we were teammates, would be dumb in the first place, because I could've left that as a single vote and it probably wouldn't have gotten off the ground. Absolutely no reason for me to put my vote there.
Secondly, if I did such a thing, why the storms would I drop out at the last minute? So Cloud and Eramit are both up for getting scanned. I could've shifted to Cloud and practically confirmed that (which would be the better move, since Eramit's the Gyorn) without getting any suspicion, or I could've stayed on Eramit. Either's an option. But moving off of both? Why would I do that? One of them was still getting scanned wherever I voted, and that way I wouldn't get the benefit of voting on an eliminator when that was revealed. 
So I see seriously no reason that I would do such a thing as a Derethi. That would be useless. 

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Elbereth: Knowing that Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, my suspicion of Elbereth has increased substantially. I by no means have any solid proof, just a lot of theories / speculations about things she's said / done so far.
On the first day, while we were discussing strategies for scan targets, she said this: "I disagree that we should scan more lurking players, honestly. Because while they might be a bit more likely to be eliminators (although I’d argue that that’s not the case - if they’re lurking when they usually don’t, that’s one thing, but the players you named are usually fairly low profile), that scan is also much less useful. Knowing the alignment of someone who’s interacted a lot with everyone else is much more useful than knowing the alignment of someone who’s barely posted. Regardless of what that alignment turns out to be." It's a valid point, however if she is indeed an eliminator I'm willing to bet at least one player on her team, if not multiple players, fall into the category of lurkers, and this was a way for her to indirectly defend them from being scanned. Specifically I mentioned both Sart and Seonid, so if Elbereth is indeed an eliminator I would hazard to guess one of these two players is on her team.

Meh. I could argue that pulling scans off of those players also pulls them on to people like me (I'm pretty sure you hadn't posted your scan-non-Senators plan at that point?), and I'm arguably more valuable because I'm active, but okay. 

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On Day 1 she votes for me for three reasons: because I was "placing myself above the rest of the players," which I feel is an opinion-based conclusion because that was neither my intent. I can't seem to find where she later explains it, but I think it was something along the lines is I was trying to put myself in an authoritative position by saying "So long as I am alive, I will do my best to remind players of where each faction is in terms of winning, to the best of the knowledge we have, so that no one loses perspective on the situation." I'm not entirely sure how a statement like that gives me authority, but either way I'll explain that my intent was to remind both of the eliminator factions that I am a threat to them with hopes of encouraging them to attack me that night. 

First, correction: I voted for you for four reasons. The three specifics I pointed out and gut. 
Second... I don't quite see that. I mean, I know it's your forte to go and try to draw attacks when you have a self-protect role, but that quote doesn't quite feel like you're doing that. That's not something that's going to make the eliminators go 'Rusts, we need to kill Aman now'. That's just my opinion, though. 

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Lastly you say you're suspicious of me because of the advice I gave to not trust someone absolutely if they help kill an eliminator, as they could still belong to the other faction. I fail to see how that statement is anything but good and makes me think you were reacting more to the implications of that perspective to the eliminators (I.E. you were planning to bus a teammate, or hoping to get a member of the opposite eliminator faction killed to help clear you).

I always look with slightly more suspicion at people who are trying to make the village paranoid. I'm not saying it's bad advice, nor that you're necessarily an eliminator for it. It just makes me a little more suspicious. 

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When confronted by Mailliw about how you were talking to me about scan targets in the doc and then minutes later vote for me, you say "I was curious whether I could get anything out of him before he knew I was suspicious of him. Sadly not." This is less evidence against you but more so in my favor, but that's probably because other than the weak reasons you vocalized to suspect me are just that, weak, and I have suggested more plans than not that make the eliminators' (the Jeskeri in particular) jobs near impossible. What's interesting to me is that you also continued to say I'm the most suspicious player to you in D2, and I have yet to see you point out anything else (perhaps because you're an eliminator and I'm not, therefore a dead / suspicious Aman is better for you then a living / trusted Aman). 

The reason I'm continuing to say you're suspicious to me is that I haven't seen anything to change my mind since D1. All of the plans you proposed, and all of the suspicions I had, were both from D1. There hasn't been much since to make me think any differently either way. 

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I'd say you're probably not Derethi because of you voting he be scanned since the very first day, but that might have just been an early distancing technique that ended up getting much farther than you originally hoped. Rescinding your statement would make you look extra suspicious, so instead you followed through with it, especially after Eramit continued to do suspicious things. 

You seem to have forgotten that I actually didn't follow through with it...

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Now, given the fact that you were attacked (and even said you expected it) makes me believe that the main reason you were okay with this is because you intended to have your faction simultaneously attack and protect you, in order to effectively confirm you're a villager without being scanned, when in truth you really aren't.

So you're saying that I was okay with the scanning non-Senators because I knew I'd be pulling a WGG to clear myself? How do those two things even correlate? Assuming I were an eliminator, I'd be happy with the plan because it directed scans away from me, sure. But how does that have anything to do with the WGG? It's not like I'd be unhappy if we weren't doing a WGG, because then I'd have no way of being cleared because the plan would mean I couldn't be scanned. That wouldn't make any sense. 

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Here's the quote I was looking for, I think. 
You say you're fine with being recalled, but don't ever really mention the possibility of being scanned. Granted that's assumed you don't want to do that due to your prior support of the scan-non-Senators-only plan, it also might be because you'd rather be recalled from the Senate rather than scanned, as the first option still allows you to live / plot.

To be fair, you've said outright that you don't want to be scanned either. Yes, I'm fine with being scanned; no, I don't think it's the best option because I know what the result will be. Although actually. Given how many people have weighed in on this, it might actually not be a bad thing for my alignment to get revealed. That could be useful. I'd be okay with that, then. 

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Fair enough I haven't looked over your stuff yet, which given how much more involved you've been this game than her, I imagine will take a lot longer. 

This doesn't really have any relevance, but it makes me sad. It truly, truly does. 

So, as far as I can tell: Elenion thinks I'm Derethi. Aman thinks I'm more likely to be Jeskeri but isn't sure. I've addressed both as best I can. 

One other thing - for some reason I don't have it quoted and don't want to go back and find it, but Cloud protecting Elenion? Why? Why would you do such a thing? I mean... of the four people in the senate at the time. Elenion, myself, Bard, and Aman. Elenion is the least likely player to have been killed. Because he's new and hasn't proven himself a threat yet (you could argue that I'm an eliminator and he's going after me, which makes him dangerous to us, but I'm not arguing that because 1. I'm not, and 2. If I were I still wouldn't attack him, at least not yet, since I'd like to give him a little time to play and see if he likes it before I murder him ruthlessly. ). So why would the eliminators go after him? Really, why? If I didn't know you were village, I would be suspicious. Seriously. 

Regarding distancing - That was actually one of the things that made me suspect Joe in QF16. He threw a vote on Aman C1, who was then lynched and turned out evil, and... well. Stuff (Joe didn't take his vote off even though it was a really weird lynch and didn't even comment on how bizarre the lynch was even though he was on, and other things). Anyway. 

15 hours ago, Elenion said:

There's the chance that El is an elim but didn't want to call Cloud a non-village and her lie to be revealed when he's lynched. I'd only say there's a 20% chance, with maybe an extra 5% due to Cloud.

And about lynches, I suggest we kill an inactive that isn't doing anything to help us anyway. I started on Sart but am willing to kill just about anyone.

Deleted this by mistake so I have to rewrite it: 

As I said before, if that were the case, I just wouldn't have claimed to have received the scan at all. 

Well, I'd say that we shouldn't because he's also about to be lynched in LG23, but I also want revenge for the fall of Venture, so... I'm fine with Sart. 

Here's hoping the quotes work, since manual coding doesn't work very well anymore... We'll see, I guess. 
EDIT: Uuuuugh. Sorry. Will try to fix. If you want a nice version, come back and look in half an hour or so. 
EDIT 2: Right, let's try this again... 

EDIT 3: Well. That took a while. Third time's the charm? 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Um, it's broken more now...

[Elbereth she/her]

No. It's the same brokenness. It was like that before. Well, I suppose it was less broken at the very beginning... I'll try fixing it. Once. And then I'm going to bed regardless of what it does. >> 

EDIT: Nope, got nothing. Good night. 

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elbereth

[Chaos he/him]

I don't know how you made quote boxes even do what you did but I will fix this later (I'm going back to bed) and PM you on my investigation results.