Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Straw he/him]

We should lynch the most suspicious senator so I can be appointed senator. As it is me and cloud are the only confirmed good players. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Patience, Straw. Cloud could be lying and you could be on the same team. Let's wait until we see if the Jeskeri continue to go after Senators. No use hurrying the process along.

 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

@Sart, you just posted in the other thread half an hour ago. With the three Senate poke votes, you have quite the incentive to post here.

Edit: Oh yeah, and @Straw--I won't trust you until you invite one other person to your doc...of the Senate's choosing!

 

@The Young Bard--if you don't want to lynch Sart, I would vote for an alternative in the Senate and in the thread.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion he/him]

14 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

The end of the cycle was a bit uneasy for me concerning Elenion. He seemed to be pushing suspicion on Elbereth quite a bit. 

Yes, I was pushing hard indeed for action against El. I saw a weak spot in that El got Cloud on and Cloud vetted Straw. If El was an elim, that would get the rest of the senate into deep trouble indeed, particularly after the next death, when Straw would be elected and so over half of the senate would be contingent on El's alignment. As shown in the Senate document, I haven't pushed for a full lynch, only an inspection. An inspection, if given to someone other than El herself or a possible-allied Cloud, would prove the allegiances of not only El but Cloud and Straw as well. If she's legit, we can conclude that both Cloud and Straw are as well. I don't fear El due to any particular action of hers, but because so much of our future has been placed into the hands of an unvetted senator.

My first choice of scan is definitely El, but I'd actually scan myself second. It's time to definitively prove my allegiance.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

Yay! I was just about to go and try to paraphrase stuff without using quotes so that I could post it. Perfect timing!  

[Amanuensis he/him]

I’m still suspicious of the lack of two kills on N2. I get where Mailliw was coming from about Meta but, I feel that either Mailliw or El (or both) are trying to deflect us from the real reason why there was no kill so that we don’t target inactives (the rest of the Jeskeri). Which is why it critical that I ask if any Merchant went on a business trip N2. If you did you should reveal it now, since the eliminators would already know why their kill failed to appear in the write-up. 3 of the 5 players dead so far were Merchants, so unless there is a ton of them, I’m leaning towards inactivity being the cause. I have went back and looked at N2 to see who never got online to post and composed the following chart.

 

Name	# of Posts N2
Amanuensis	1
cloudjumper	4
Ecthellion III	6
Elbereth	3
Elenion	12
emilylime	0
Eolhandras	2
Kipper	1
Mailliw73	0
OrlokTsubodai	1*
Sart	0
Seonid	0
Straw	0
The Young Bard	2

 

So, Emily, Mailliw, Sart, Seonid and Straw all did not post on N2, presumably because they were inactive. Given this information, Mailliw is my top suspect for a Jeskeri for two reasons: A, I believe that he asked whether or not a Merchant getting attacked while on a business trip would appear in the write up was a ploy to distract us from targeting players who were inactive that night (aka him) so that Meta and him would not look so bad, and B, he is pushing that Elenion and I get scanned rather than someone outside the Senate, despite him agreeing with my plan to let Senators be weeded out by the eliminators so that we can maximize our investigation’s effectiveness. I know I am village and am beginning to convince myself more and more than Elenion is as well. Therefore is any of us began evil it would have to be Elbereth (I’ll admit that I feel like I’m tunneling on her again). If this is the case then Elbereth could also be Jeskeri, and that she decided to protect herself instead of make a kill because she was concerned the other eliminator faction would attack her (which also help explains the one kill and her mysterious survival). This would have to mean she is a Duelist or a Kesegan Monk, of course, so I'll have to ask @Mckeedee123 if Kesegan Monk’s can self protect like Duelists can

 

Seonid has only posted four times. First on D1 just to say that he’s around(ish). Second to say he didn’t feel strong enough about anyone to vote to lynch them (eliminator trying to stay out of the limelight?) and that he supported scanning players with the second-most votes in the lynch every day. Third he posts only to say he agrees with Meta that pressure should be put on the Senators and then proceeds to vote for me to get recalled (trying to get someone they know is not a Jeskeri off the Senate so they can slip someone in?). And finally he gets on again to lynch eramit and say he supports Bard being scanned (another player I now know without a doubt isn’t Jeskeri).

 

If it’s not Mailliw/Seonid my next guess for a Jeskeri would be Emily. While I thought he latched onto her with his first post because she was just a recent / good example of something he wanted to discourage (just as I did with Elodin in LG23 regarding “chaotics”), it’s very possible that he instead was paying more attention to a fairly new teammate rather than other players, and went with the “vote-for-my-teammate-first” tactic eliminators sometimes do with hopes of distancing themselves. Her absence that turn could very well be a part of the reason why there was no kill.

 

Sart has only posted once and it was on D1 to tell us he’s been distracted with Pokemon GO (can’t really blame him, I’d be playing it pretty much non-stop if it worked in South America), that he thought the bandwagon on Bard was interesting, and to comment on how Bard jumped on Mailliw about “playing mind games” when he really wasn’t (could be a potential indirect defense of Mailliw). That being said, Sart has the weakest connections to Meta out of all of these players so he’s at the bottom of my suspect list for the Jeskeri. I also think he would be a lot more involved in this game if he were evil (the only time I ever remember Sart being evil it was when we were eliminators together, and he seemed a lot more involved than the games I’ve played where him when he was a villager).

Assuming Straw is actually a Korathi Acolyte, which I believe for now, then there isn’t much point in me analyzing him. Therefore, in conclusion, I am most suspicious that Mailliw is Jeskeri, followed by Seonid and Emily, and lastly Sart. For these reasons I would personally like to lynch and investigate two of these four players this turn (would prefer any but Sart, though), with hopes of catching at least one Jeskeri, or at the very least help narrow down our pool. I will change my Investigation nomination from Eol to Seonid and vote Mailliw for the lynch this turn.

 

EDIT: Right, I gave Orlok and asterisk because while he posted once, and it was only to tell us that he was busy with real life, and that it was early enough in the turn that a target might not have been decided yet, and therefore he is also a possible candidate for a Jeskeri. I'd definitely rank him higher in suspicion than Sart, but I am more inclined to believe he is Derethi, based off my eramit scanning me D1 theory. I can go into depth of that later, if someone wants me to.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Amanuensis
Formatting and rephrasing to adapt it to the thread rather than the doc

[Chaos he/him]

I don't know how you even managed to add what you did into that post that made it so screwed up but I fixed it now. What did you do.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Actually, Aman, I just think it's much less likely, in any game, that a whole eliminator team is inactive this early on. I've never once seen that, so I believe it's either that they hit a Merchant or are trying to get you to do exactly what you're doing. It could also very well be the Derethi kill that went missing, and thus all the connections to Meta are pointless. 

[Elbereth she/her]

6 hours ago, Straw said:

We should lynch the most suspicious senator so I can be appointed senator. As it is me and cloud are the only confirmed good players. 

Uh... No. You're not. Cloud's confirmed if I am, and Bard is equally confirmed as Cloud. 

Chaos, I'll PM you so it doesn't clutter the thread with irrelevant stuff. 

Also, what Maill said. Agree with all of that completely. There's a game recently when this was discussed... QF16? Not sure. 

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elbereth

[Straw he/him]

How am I not? I proved it by posting the last word in the doc from a few days ago. The current word is "Here!"

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Actually, Aman, I just think it's much less likely, in any game, that a whole eliminator team is inactive this early on. I've never once seen that, so I believe it's either that they hit a Merchant or are trying to get you to do exactly what you're doing. It could also very well be the Derethi kill that went missing, and thus all the connections to Meta are pointless. 

Ultimately what this comes down to is if there is any Merchant who went on a Business Trip N2. If there was none, then the answer to the lack of a second kill is because at least one of those five players could not put a kill order in, regardless if they're Jeskeri or Derethi. Which is why I think it's important that any Merchant who used their one-time power that turn come out now. Like I said before, the eliminators would already know why their kill didn't appear if that's the case, so really keeping it a secret at this point helps no one but them.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elbereth she/her]

I wasn't saying you're not confirmed good, Straw. I was saying that Bard also is, or is as confirmed as Cloud is. And I was also going to say that I think that's a really terrible idea anyway, but I ran out of time (and still shouldn't really be posting right now) and had to post before I could say everything I wanted to. 

[Elenion he/him]

18 minutes ago, Straw said:

How am I not? I proved it by posting the last word in the doc from a few days ago. The current word is "Here!"

That could have been provided to you in an elim doc. You're mostly vetted, except the chance that El, Cloud, and you are in a massive elim conspiracy.

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ultimately what this comes down to is if there is any Merchant who went on a Business Trip N2. If there was none, then the answer to the lack of a second kill is because at least one of those five players could not put a kill order in, regardless if they're Jeskeri or Derethi. Which is why I think it's important that any Merchant who used their one-time power that turn come out now. Like I said before, the eliminators would already know why their kill didn't appear if that's the case, so really keeping it a secret at this point helps no one but them.

Well, it wasn't me: I'm a landlord.

45 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Elenion

12

Most posts: sounds like me. 

46 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That being said, Sart has the weakest connections to Meta out of all of these players so he’s at the bottom of my suspect list for the Jeskeri.

Sounds good. Sart. Seonid.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

20 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ultimately what this comes down to is if there is any Merchant who went on a Business Trip N2. If there was none, then the answer to the lack of a second kill is because at least one of those five players could not put a kill order in, regardless if they're Jeskeri or Derethi. Which is why I think it's important that any Merchant who used their one-time power that turn come out now. Like I said before, the eliminators would already know why their kill didn't appear if that's the case, so really keeping it a secret at this point helps no one but them.

Ah, yes, I agree completely. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

I don't trust Straw at all. He isn't confirmed good because the only person who could verify Straw's word was Cloud. Thus, Straw's innocence depends entirely on Cloud's innocence. Plus, he seems to be way too overeager to get into the Senate.

Scan Mailliw.

@Amanuensis From the rules for Kesegan Monk: " You can use this action on yourself, but the identity of your attacker will not be revealed should you be attacked in this case."

[Elenion he/him]

I'm in on the senate document for lynching Mailliw and scanning Seonid. I'd suggest the rest of you do the same.

My thread vote change: Seonid. Mailliw.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Ecthelion III, @emilylime, @Eolhondras, @Kipper, @OrlokTsubodai, @Sart, @Seonid, @The Young Bard: did any of you go on a Business Trip N2?

Edited July 15, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Ecthelion III he/him]

No.

What if: N2, the Derethi tried to attack Meta, but he went on a business trip. The Jeskeri did a WGG with Cloud defending Elbereth and someone else (Straw?) submitting the attack. The following night, the Derethi killed Meta because he had already used his business trip (because he did not appear in the write-up).

Edited July 15, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

No.

What if: N2, the Derethi tried to attack Meta, but he went on a business trip. The Jeskeri did a WGG with Cloud defending Elbereth and someone else (Straw?) submitting the attack. The following night, the Derethi killed Meta because he had already used his business trip (because he did not appear in the write-up).

Funny if Meta took my advice N2, seeing as every non-poke vote he ever cast was on me.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

No.

What if: N2, the Derethi tried to attack Meta, but he went on a business trip. The Jeskeri did a WGG with Cloud defending Elbereth and someone else (Straw?) submitting the attack. The following night, the Derethi killed Meta because he had already used his business trip (because he did not appear in the write-up).

That is definitely an alternate explanation. If it's true that the Derethi attacked Meta twice in a row, it wouldn't even necessarily have to be a WGG with Elbereth. But if we assume that, then where do we go from here with our lynch / scan?

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

That is definitely an alternate explanation. If it's true that the Derethi attacked Meta twice in a row, it wouldn't even necessarily have to be a WGG with Elbereth. But if we assume that, then where do we go from here with our lynch / scan?

We hit Mailliw with the lynch and El with the scan?

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Don't hit El with the scan, remember. 40% chance that it means nothing. I say we lynch her next day cycle unless she gives us a good reason not to.

In fact, at this point, I say we take every scan with a grain of salt.

[Elenion he/him]

1 minute ago, Ecthelion III said:

Don't hit El with the scan, remember. 40% chance that it means nothing. I say we lynch her next day cycle unless she gives us a good reason not to.

In fact, at this point, I say we take every scan with a grain of salt.

The more senators we lynch, the more Jeskeri we might let in. Keep her there until we know for sure. There's also the chance Cloud is legit, gets it, and rats out El. What a ruckus that would cause! Or the chance the Cloud's an elim and he buses El.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

15 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

What if: N2, the Derethi tried to attack Meta, but he went on a business trip. 

That's... actually a really plausible explanation right there. That wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Elenion, can you clarify what you mean in that last post? I don't know what you're trying to say. 

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Elbereth said:

That's... actually a really plausible explanation right there. That wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Elenion, can you clarify what you mean in that last post? I don't know what you're trying to say. 

We're debating the chance that, assuming you're an elim, that you are properly scanned. If you get your own we can't trust it. If I, Bard, or Aman get it and you're an elim, I'm pretty confident any of us would announce correctly. But the real question is Cloud: would he obfuscate the results or not?