Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

MST. And wow. Two Derethi? Can't be more than one or two more left.  

I mean, you should know, shouldn't you? Mailliw did protect you, after all. While he could have been lying, he said that he had the order in to protect you before his teammates decided to attack you. I can't see any reason why he would use his ability on a villager unless he intended to make it look like a WGG, hoping we'd waste a turn lynching you. But even that seems wasteful, considering they could have just killed you or someone else that turn instead, and been a lot further ahead for it. I believe it's a lot more likely that they wanted to deter you from getting scanned by making it look like the eliminators wanted you dead.

[Elbereth she/her]

...And you think that Maill would have deliberately revealed any such thing if it could put more suspicion on me than I've already had? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

...And you think that Maill would have deliberately revealed any such thing if it could put more suspicion on me than I've already had? 

Well, when you're in that outed eliminator state, you can do two things, really. Lie through your teeth to keep them guessing / confused, or give them a part of the truth, if not all of it, to make them think you're lying and drive them to act a certain way. A good example is LG21 when I told the thread not to lynch DC because he was a villager. They went ahead and lynched him anyway, despite me being completely honest. So then it comes down to what Mailliw thinks the village would believe; he was laying down a false trail with hopes of convincing us to kill you when really you're innocent, or hoping for us to believe that's what he wanted and thus ignore you when you're actually Derethi, too. I haven't quite dismissed that you could be innocent quite yet. I just don't really get why they'd fake a WGG, especially with their Gyorn already revealed. The only real point in your favor in my mind right now is how Mailliw immediately latched on to the possibility of a WGG the next day. But if I recall correctly, he later said he was less suspicious of you than he was me, and that he didn't want me protecting myself over other Senators. Sooo, I dunno. I'll do some thorough analysis soon before I decide which I believe for certain. Either way, Seonid is guaranteed evil so we need to get rid of him first. So really it'll come down to if we want to scan you or Emily/Sart/Orlok next. But that's something to be finalized during the day turn, I think, after we see what the Derethi / Jeskeri decide to do with their kills.

[Elbereth she/her]

How Maill immediately latched onto the possibility of a WGG? What? No one mentioned it except me for the first half of the day, and then the first to mention it was you. So I wouldn't say he latched onto it immediately. No one did. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Elbereth said:

 

How Maill immediately latched onto the possibility of a WGG? What? No one mentioned it except me for the first half of the day, and then the first to mention it was you. So I wouldn't say he latched onto it immediately. No one did. 

I might be misremembering that, then. I actually don't even remember you mentioning it at all, tbh. I just remember me saying it and Mailliw posting that it was his first thought, too.

[Elbereth she/her]

I didn't mention it by name because I was replying to Elenion (I think? one of the new players, anyway), so I just rephrased it so I didn't have to explain the term. 

Also: I just found out that tonight I might be finally observing for my internship.  So don't expect anything from me for the next 24 hours unless I'm rather unlucky and it's cloudy. Again. >>

Edited July 19, 2016 by Elbereth

[Elenion he/him]

58 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I didn't mention it by name because I was replying to Elenion (I think? one of the new players, anyway), so I just rephrased it so I didn't have to explain the term. 

It was I who had no idea what a WGG was and I think it was Elbereth that explained, so I can testify for that, @Amanuensis.

1 hour ago, Ecthelion III said:

(Also, what do you mean by "Derethi Regular". Does not everyone have a role?)

I'm just quoting what it said. I thought everyone had a role, too, but apparently not. If I was lying I would have made it more convincing. 

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

MST. And wow. Two Derethi? Can't be more than one or two more left.

I seriously hope it's just one left, because even I at my most sadistic wouldn't have made 5 out of 19 people Derethi, not to mention 5-6 Jeskeri. If that were true then over half of us would be elims!

[Seonid he/him]

Well, that could have been a fun run, but I haven't really had enough time to do this role justice. My apologies to Mailliw and eramit for my inactivity. The Derethi infiltration has come to an end.

[Alvron he/him]

3 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

(Also, what do you mean by "Derethi Regular". Does not everyone have a role?)

I will neither confirm nor deny anything but it's possible that I don't have all the relevant information so there will possibly be some mistakes.  Maybe.

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Seonid said:

The Derethi infiltration has come to an end.

So that's all of you?!?

 

If that's true, I propose: Elenion's (mostly) Foolproof Plan to Beat the Jeskeri

Phase 1: Protect our senators tonight. A 5-man senate requires 3 Jeskeri to win; a 4-man senate requires only 2. Since there are 2 duelists on the Senate and at least one village monk out there, that's 3 defense roles. If we've got another non-Senate duelist that makes 4, which is pretty good chances for no senators to die.

Phase 2: Watch out for Landlords. A single vote can quickly turn into 2 by the hand of a Jeskeri Landlord, and so one suspicious vote can be enough to get a village senator kicked off by surprise. We've already killed one Jeskeri Landlord, Conq. There might be more of them. Since I really doubt there are 2 more Jeskeri Landlords, if nobody puts any recall votes in we should be good.

Phase 3: See if the Jeskeri kill Seonid. If they do, they have a majority and we couldn't have won anyway. If they don't, we know they aren't ready for game end, so we can kill Seonid and end it on our terms.

Phase 4: Use math. Assuming 5 starting Jeskeri, they will average about 1.3 people on the Senate if tested repeatedly. Since Cloud is vetted and practically confirmed good (since he wasn't implicated in the whole WGG problem after Maill confessed to being the offending duelist), we can assume they only hold one spot on the Senate, perhaps 2.

Phase 5: Lynch Seonid. Since the math tells us there are no more than 2 Jeskeri on the Senate, we're in good shape to end this now. If they have only 1, we're good even if 2 village senators die. If they have 2, we need a full 5-man Senate to ensure victory.

TL;DR: All defense roles target Senators; everyone lynch Seonid tomorrow.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Elenion

[Ecthelion III he/him]

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

Since Cloud is vetted and practically confirmed good (since he wasn't implicated in the whole WGG problem after Maill confessed to being the offending duelist), we can assume they only hold one spot on the Senate, perhaps 2.

"Practically confirmed good" and "not implicated in the WGG" are two completely different things.

[Straw he/him]

Is Bard probably village?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Is Bard probably village?

I can confirm that he absolutely is.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

If Aman is village, Bard is village.

If Elbereth is village, Cloud is village.

Straw is village unless both Cloud and Eolhondras are not village and belong to his same faction. @Straw, who are you adding to your doc tonight?

[Straw he/him]

I will add Bard to my doc. Who are you scanning tonight? I would recommend that you scan Aman, Eolhondras, or Elbereth.

[Elenion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

I will add Bard to my doc. Who are you scanning tonight? I would recommend that you scan Aman, Eolhondras, or Elbereth.

Kind of difficult since we don't scan at night. 

[Straw he/him]

Sorry, the whole scanning thing being switched around is confusing me. If Aman is cleared next cycle I will invite him to my doc.

[Elenion he/him]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

Sorry, the whole scanning thing being switched around is confusing me

During the day, the senate scans and everybody lynches.

At night, we vote senators in/out and the elims kill people.

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 7/19/2016 at 0:02 AM, Elenion said:

So that's all of you?!?

 

If that's true, I propose: Elenion's (mostly) Foolproof Plan to Beat the Jeskeri

Phase 1: Protect our senators tonight. A 5-man senate requires 3 Jeskeri to win; a 4-man senate requires only 2. Since there are 2 duelists on the Senate and at least one village monk out there, that's 3 defense roles. If we've got another non-Senate duelist that makes 4, which is pretty good chances for no senators to die.

Phase 2: Watch out for Landlords. A single vote can quickly turn into 2 by the hand of a Jeskeri Landlord, and so one suspicious vote can be enough to get a village senator kicked off by surprise. We've already killed one Jeskeri Landlord, Conq. There might be more of them. Since I really doubt there are 2 more Jeskeri Landlords, if nobody puts any recall votes in we should be good.

Phase 3: See if the Jeskeri kill Seonid. If they do, they have a majority and we couldn't have won anyway. If they don't, we know they aren't ready for game end, so we can kill Seonid and end it on our terms.

Phase 4: Use math. Assuming 5 starting Jeskeri, they will average about 1.3 people on the Senate if tested repeatedly. Since Cloud is vetted and practically confirmed good (since he wasn't implicated in the whole WGG problem after Maill confessed to being the offending duelist), we can assume they only hold one spot on the Senate, perhaps 2.

Phase 5: Lynch Seonid. Since the math tells us there are no more than 2 Jeskeri on the Senate, we're in good shape to end this now. If they have only 1, we're good even if 2 village senators die. If they have 2, we need a full 5-man Senate to ensure victory.

TL;DR: All defense roles target Senators; everyone lynch Seonid tomorrow.

Personally I doubt it's all of them, and I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit worried right now. I think I've figured out what happened N2, and it's not boding well for the village. Think about Mailliw's role for a second. What would be the point in giving the Derethi the power to protect Senators if none of them began as one? If the goal was to make them able to defend a teammate from another team's kill, they'd need a Kesegan Monk, otherwise. Given that most GMs would probably decide against that because it could have given them the option of two kills a night instead of one, it makes a lot more sense for Mek to have given them a Senator from the get go (since it's way too easy to elect confirmed good players, otherwise). So, this is what I think happened: Mailliw put in his order to protect Elbereth, the Derethi Senator. Seonid (being the Regular) was meant to send in the kill, but never got on to do it. Elbereth was too preoccupied with being Spiked in LG23 to realize there was no kill put in before it was too late to do anything about it. Then the Jeskeri attempted to attack Elbereth to free a slot up in the Senate, not knowing she'd be protected by Mailliw, and failed. Mailliw then tried to propagate the idea that the failed kill was due to Merchants to keep us from looking at inactives, because while I was wrong about the missing kill belonging to the Jeskeri, it would point us all at Seonid and him (just like it did) and they desperately didn't want that.

There is no doubt in my mind now that Elbereth is Derethi, and I am very confident that it was the Jeskeri who attacked her, which means they were active enough to send in a kill. Given that I know Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, that means the only possible Jeskeri of the original Senators is Elenion, as otherwise the Jeskeri would basically have no chance of winning because of a combination of day-turn investigations and night turn of elections coupled with immunity. On this subject, I think this game would have been balanced a lot better if investigations and elections occurred during the day turn, so that the eliminators could actually have a chance of killing confirmed good players before they gained any more power.

Now, believing that Elbereth is absolutely Derethi, that means I am less confident about the scan on cloudjumper. There's no real way of telling if cloud is indeed a villager, Derethi or a Jeskeri. I personally doubt he's Derethi, though, as that would mean they began with five members, which I feel is much too high in a game with two evil teams. Then again, I was wrong about the number of evils in LG22, which this scenario is most like, so it's possible that assumption could be wrong here too. If cloud is actually a Jeskeri, that would mean they were caught between a rock and a hard place from the start (Rock: cloud was about to be lynched, so he revealed he was a duelist and asked to be scanned to be kept alive, hoping that his Senator teammate would receive the result. Hard place: Conq was then the next best candidate for the lynch, and Elenion was forced to choose between killing one of his teammates, something the Jeskeri would want to avoid, or drawing suspicion to him by switching the lynch last minute to a third player, which I think can explain his scrambling there at the end).

If this is the case, as a Derethi receiving the scan of a Jeskeri, Elbereth really would have two options. Tell the truth and get him lynched to gain trust, or lie to put the villagers at a disadvantage and maybe establish an early alliance. I could definitely see her choosing the latter before the former, especially with Mailliw there to protect her in case the Jeskeri decided to attack instead (which would effectively prove she was not Jeskeri, perhaps not as well as killing one of them, but enough for her to argue being soft-cleared as a result, if need be).

Elbereth no longer has Mailliw to protect her from an attack, so if both cloud and Elenion are Jeskeri and she is attacked by them tonight, lynching Seonid tomorrow would result in a win for them (2 Jeskeri Senators versus 2 village Senators). If she isn't attacked tonight and we lynch Seonid tomorrow, that leaves the Senate full and her with no protection, therefore the Jeskeri could attack her then and win, too. Either way, I think it's essential that we recall one of them right now, if we don't want to be at risk of a Jeskeri win. Personally I'm going to vote to recall Elenion, because I'm more certain he is Jeskeri (unlike cloud, who has a chance of being innocent, whereas I see no way that Elenion possibly could be, knowing now that Elbereth is Derethi). This will leave at least two villagers on the Senate, one Derethi, and one maybe-Jeskeri. So no way they can win unless Bard is killed before Elbereth dies.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Unless, of course, Aman, you're Derethi?

I'll give this far more thought I'm an hour or two - I promise, but can absolutely see you and Maill arranging to lynch him on a triviality to soft clear you. So whilst I'm not saying you are a Derethi, I think we ought to consider it a possibility, and one which requires a degree of thought.

[Amanuensis he/him]

21 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Unless, of course, Aman, you're Derethi?

I'll give this far more thought I'm an hour or two - I promise, but can absolutely see you and Maill arranging to lynch him on a triviality to soft clear you. So whilst I'm not saying you are a Derethi, I think we ought to consider it a possibility, and one which requires a degree of thought.

What would the Derethi gain by busing not one of their teammates (after their Gyorn was already dead), but two? I was the one that advocated Mailliw to be lynched and Seonid to be scanned in the first place. I could see the argument that I'm Jeskeri, but it should be extremely obvious that I'm not Derethi, at least.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elbereth she/her]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Personally I doubt it's all of them, and I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit worried right now. I think I've figured out what happened N2, and it's not boding well for the village. Think about Mailliw's role for a second. What would be the point in giving the Derethi the power to protect Senators if none of them began as one? If the goal was to make them able to defend a teammate from another team's kill, they'd need a Kesegan Monk, otherwise. Given that most GMs would probably decide against that because it could have given them the option of two kills a night instead of one, it makes a lot more sense for Mek to have given them a Senator from the get go (since it's way too easy to elect confirmed good players, otherwise). So, this is what I think happened: Mailliw put in his order to protect Elbereth, the Derethi Senator. Seonid (being the Regular) was meant to send in the kill, but never got on to do it. Elbereth was too preoccupied with being Spiked in LG23 to realize there was no kill put in before it was too late to do anything about it. Then the Jeskeri attempted to attack Elbereth to free a slot up in the Senate, not knowing she'd be protected by Mailliw, and failed. Mailliw then tried to propagate the idea that the failed kill was due to Merchants to keep us from looking at inactives, because while I was wrong about the missing kill belonging to the Jeskeri, it would point us all at Seonid and him (just like it did) and they desperately didn't want that.

There is no doubt in my mind now that Elbereth is Derethi, and I am very confident that it was the Jeskeri who attacked her, which means they were active enough to send in a kill. Given that I know Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, that means the only possible Jeskeri of the original Senators is Elenion, as otherwise the Jeskeri would basically have no chance of winning because of a combination of day-turn investigations and night turn of elections coupled with immunity. On this subject, I think this game would have been balanced a lot better if investigations and elections occurred during the day turn, so that the eliminators could actually have a chance of killing confirmed good players before they gained any more power.

Now, believing that Elbereth is absolutely Derethi, that means I am less confident about the scan on cloudjumper. There's no real way of telling if cloud is indeed a villager, Derethi or a Jeskeri. I personally doubt he's Derethi, though, as that would mean they began with five members, which I feel is much too high in a game with two evil teams. Then again, I was wrong about the number of evils in LG22, which this scenario is most like, so it's possible that assumption could be wrong here too. If cloud is actually a Jeskeri, that would mean they were caught between a rock and a hard place from the start (Rock: cloud was about to be lynched, so he revealed he was a duelist and asked to be scanned to be kept alive, hoping that his Senator teammate would receive the result. Hard place: Conq was then the next best candidate for the lynch, and Elenion was forced to choose between killing one of his teammates, something the Jeskeri would want to avoid, or drawing suspicion to him by switching the lynch last minute to a third player, which I think can explain his scrambling there at the end).

If this is the case, as a Derethi receiving the scan of a Jeskeri, Elbereth really would have two options. Tell the truth and get him lynched to gain trust, or lie to put the villagers at a disadvantage and maybe establish an early alliance. I could definitely see her choosing the latter before the former, especially with Mailliw there to protect her in case the Jeskeri decided to attack instead (which would effectively prove she was not Jeskeri, perhaps not as well as killing one of them, but enough for her to argue being soft-cleared as a result, if need be).

Elbereth no longer has Mailliw to protect her from an attack, so if both cloud and Elenion are Jeskeri and she is attacked by them tonight, lynching Seonid tomorrow would result in a win for them (2 Jeskeri Senators versus 2 village Senators). If she isn't attacked tonight and we lynch Seonid tomorrow, that leaves the Senate full and her with no protection, therefore the Jeskeri could attack her then and win, too. Either way, I think it's essential that we recall one of them right now, if we don't want to be at risk of a Jeskeri win. Personally I'm going to vote to recall Elenion, because I'm more certain he is Jeskeri (unlike cloud, who has a chance of being innocent, whereas I see no way that Elenion possibly could be, knowing now that Elbereth is Derethi). This will leave at least two villagers on the Senate, one Derethi, and one maybe-Jeskeri. So no way they can win unless Bard is killed before Elbereth dies.

...Okay, now you're tunnelling. >> I won't try to split up the quote, so numbering it is.

1. *facepalm*
2. You're essentially basing the fact that a Derethi has to be a Senator on the fact that they had a Duelist, and that Duelist had to be useful immediately, which I don't necessarily think is the case (also, predicting distribution is uncertain at best).
3. I was distracted by being Spiked in LG23? Really? You seem to think I can't do both effectively. Turnovers are two hours apart, and more than that, there's an hour break between turnovers in LG23 in which nothing happened. Why wouldn't I check MR15 at that point? Because that's what I do. (I'd ask one of my Spiked friends to verify that for me, but I have a feeling they're not particularly interested in revealing themselves. ) There's absolutely no reason why I wouldn't have realized a kill wasn't going in.
4. That is all the evidence you give for me being Spiked. And I've refuted your earlier points as much as I could. So... I'm really not seeing where you're getting this rock-hard certainty that I'm evil.
5. Okay, so you think that Cloud is Jeskeri, yes? Potentially, anyway. If that's the case, why the storms would the Jeskeri have attacked me, right after I saved one of their members? That'd just be dumb. Even if they didn't want an alliance, there was no reason to tear down the pretense of one.
6. You're ignoring the possibility that the Derethi will attack me because that'll mean Seonid survives tomorrow's lynch.
7. Why do you think Elenion is Jeskeri? (Other than just his being a Senator with the assumption that I'm Derethi?) Maybe I missed that.

Should be around a fair amount today. Maybe even enough to convince you to stop storming tunneling.

[Amanuensis he/him]

45 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

...Okay, now you're tunnelling. >> I won't try to split up the quote, so numbering it is.

1. *facepalm*
2. You're essentially basing the fact that a Derethi has to be a Senator on the fact that they had a Duelist, and that Duelist had to be useful immediately, which I don't necessarily think is the case (also, predicting distribution is uncertain at best).
3. I was distracted by being Spiked in LG23? Really? You seem to think I can't do both effectively. Turnovers are two hours apart, and more than that, there's an hour break between turnovers in LG23 in which nothing happened. Why wouldn't I check MR15 at that point? Because that's what I do. (I'd ask one of my Spiked friends to verify that for me, but I have a feeling they're not particularly interested in revealing themselves. ) There's absolutely no reason why I wouldn't have realized a kill wasn't going in.
4. That is all the evidence you give for me being Spiked. And I've refuted your earlier points as much as I could. So... I'm really not seeing where you're getting this rock-hard certainty that I'm evil.
5. Okay, so you think that Cloud is Jeskeri, yes? Potentially, anyway. If that's the case, why the storms would the Jeskeri have attacked me, right after I saved one of their members? That'd just be dumb. Even if they didn't want an alliance, there was no reason to tear down the pretense of one.
6. You're ignoring the possibility that the Derethi will attack me because that'll mean Seonid survives tomorrow's lynch.
7. Why do you think Elenion is Jeskeri? (Other than just his being a Senator with the assumption that I'm Derethi?) Maybe I missed that.

Should be around a fair amount today. Maybe even enough to convince you to stop storming tunneling.

Sorry, I understand where you're coming from, though I disagree that I'm tunneling.

1. That course of events is the most logical, considering everything we know now.
2. I am basing it off the fact that Mailliw was a Derethi Duelist and protected you. Why would a Derethi protect a villager? Their one win condition is to kill us. If they did not have a Derethi on the Senate already for him to protect, why would he actively prevent a non-Derethi from not dying? His role is useless without one of them on a Senate. If you weren't a Derethi he would want you to die to give him a chance of getting a teammate on the Senate. There's just absolutely no logic to support you not being evil knowing this. Plus, with the whole investigation thing, it's pretty much guaranteed that the Derethi would never be able to get onto the Senate unless one of them was on it already to have a chance of lying about the results.
3. There could have been another cause, I'm just saying that's a potential explanation for why you didn't put the kill order in yourself. Maybe Seonid said he'd make the kill in the doc and no one realized he didn't get online that turn to put the order in. Maybe you were only active during the beginning of the turn and not towards the end to give you the opportunity to prevent the situation. Maybe there's another reason that I'm just not seeing. Either way, this doesn't change the previous point.
4. My rock-hard certainty is based off of point 2 alone. I think logically, and logic says that unless there is a player out there who can counterclaim protecting you N2, there is no way Mailliw would have protected you unless you two were teammates. That being said, I'll make sure to look over that response you made after this post, since I never went back after chaos fixed it's wonkiness.
5. The Jeskeri win condition involves killing all of the Derethi. Given you're a Senator, that gives them a second reason to want you dead. Meta was on the Jeskeri team, and I could definitely see him suggesting that attacking me was a bad idea, because it was obvious that I was baiting them. So, they went for you instead, the same turn he tried to cast suspicion on you (see his last post), hoping you wouldn't be protected by villagers and that the Derethi didn't begin with a protective role. Personally, I don't see why an alliance would ever form between the two factions. I just can't see the benefits for either team; but you're also the same player who asked the Inquisitor (if he was in our doc) N0 to spike our entire team, and even supported asking the Spiked for help in our doc later (granted you were the Spiked) but still, the point is, you'd more than likely go for an alliance rather than sever the chances of there being one.
6. I... don't understand this. Why would the Derethi kill one of their own? And if you aren't Derethi and they kill you, why would we not lynch Seonid tomorrow?
7. Because Jaime is dead, I received the result that Bard is a villager, and I have no doubts about you being Derethi. If the Jeskeri didn't begin with a Senator I see no possible way they could have had a chance at winning, so that leaves only Elenion, who so far has done a great job of helping kill the Derethi, but has done nothing that makes me think he's not Jeskeri. Unlike cloud, who has a chance of being a villager, I believe he has to be the starting Jeskeri Senator, and therefore needs to be removed ASAP if the village wants to have any chance of winning.

I'm sorry, I really I am. I can understand the emotion you're trying to channel into this post to make it look like I have to be wrong, but you've pulled off a similar ploy way too recently (I'm the real coinshot!) to warrant me letting you get away with it again.

Also, while I totally might still be upset about you completely annihilating my (what should have been OUR) team, I promise this has nothing to do with that.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Amanuensis
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[Elbereth she/her]

40 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Sorry, I understand where you're coming from, though I disagree that I'm tunneling.

1. That course of events is the most logical, considering everything we know now.
2. I am basing it off the fact that Mailliw was a Derethi Duelist and protected you. Why would a Derethi protect a villager? Their one win condition is to kill us. If they did not have a Derethi on the Senate already for him to protect, why would he actively prevent a non-Derethi from not dying? His role is useless without one of them on a Senate. If you weren't a Derethi he would want you to die to give him a chance of getting a teammate on the Senate. There's just absolutely no logic to support you not being evil knowing this. Plus, with the whole investigation thing, it's pretty much guaranteed that the Derethi would never be able to get onto the Senate unless one of them was on it already to have a chance of lying about the results.
3. There could have been another cause, I'm just saying that's a potential explanation for why you didn't put the kill order in yourself. Maybe Seonid said he'd make the kill in the doc and no one realized he didn't get online that turn to put the order in. Maybe you were only active during the beginning of the turn and not towards the end to give you the opportunity to prevent the situation. Maybe there's another reason that I'm just not seeing. Either way, this doesn't change the previous point.
4. My rock-hard certainty is based off of point 2 alone. I think logically, and logic says that unless there is a player out there who can counterclaim protecting you N2, there is no way Mailliw would have protected you unless you two were teammates. That being said, I'll make sure to look over that response you made after this post, since I never went back after chaos fixed it's wonkiness.
5. The Jeskeri win condition involves killing all of the Derethi. Given you're a Senator, that gives them a second reason to want you dead. Meta was on the Jeskeri team, and I could definitely see him suggesting that attacking me was a bad idea, because it was obvious that I was baiting them. So, they went for you instead, the same turn he tried to cast suspicion on you (see his last post), hoping you wouldn't be protected by villagers and that the Derethi didn't begin with a protective role. Personally, I don't see why an alliance would ever form between the two factions. To me, I don't see the benefits in it either way; but you're also the same player who asked the Inquisitor (if he was in our doc) N0 to spike our entire team, and even supported asking the Spiked for help in our doc later (granted you were the Spiked) but still, the point is, you'd more than likely go for an alliance rather than severe the chances of there being one.
6. I... don't understand this. Why would the Derethi kill one of their own? And if you aren't Derethi and they kill you, why would we not lynch Seonid tomorrow?
7. Because Jaime is dead, I received the result that Bard is a villager, and I have no doubts about you being Derethi. If the Jeskeri didn't begin with a Senator I see no possible way they could have had a chance at winning, so that leaves only Elenion, who so far has done a great job of helping kill the Derethi, but has done nothing that makes me think he's not Jeskeri. Unlike cloud, who has a chance of being a villager, I believe he has to be the starting Jeskeri Senator, and therefore needs to be removed ASAP if the village wants to have any chance of winning.

I'm sorry, I really I am. I can understand the emotion you're trying to channel into this post to make it look like I have to be wrong, but you've pulled off a similar ploy way too recently (I'm the real coinshot!) to warrant me letting you get away with it again.

1. Exhibit A: Unlike other languages, English does not distinguish between the exclusive and inclusive 'we'. This is a shining example of the exclusive we, as obviously the knowledge I have directly contradicts that that is the best course of action to take.

2. I have no idea why he would've protected me. Although if there isn't a Derethi on the Senate, I could see him protecting me in case I was attacked by the Jeskeri, thus partly clearing him (or at least garnering him a bunch of trust - or if he died, giving me a big pile of suspicion). Which then backfired when the Derethi attacked me instead. And Mek doesn't seem to have predicted exactly how the Senate would work.

3. I still object (there is no reason I wouldn't have placed an order, as far as I remember), but there's not much more I can say on that point to convince you that I was around and I would have placed the order. Because if I were Derethi I'd just be lying about it. So that's pointless.

4. So you're basing this logic off of something an outed eliminator said as well. Not only that, but outed!Maill. Really? If I were around at the time (and I obviously was) I would have told him not to say he protected me. Because I know where that's going to lead. Here. >>

5. Sure, I might have gone for the alliance (outing Cloud would've cleared me more, plus I can't think how an alliance would work either, so I think I'd have gone for telling the truth, but I'm not sure). And why would they have broken that deliberately, immediately? One, my staying alive lets them find more Derethi potentially, by looking at interactions. And two, my being alive means to the Derethi that the alliance is still in place, and thus they won't be going as much after the Jeskeri. If they know for a fact that I'm Derethi, why would they kill me absolutely first?

6. Oh, hm. Sorry, bad logic there. Got lost in the hypotheticals. I was thinking of the Derethi pretending to be Jeskeri and attacking me in order to imply that if we lynch Seonid the Jeskeri will win. But then my alignment would be revealed to be innocent, so that wouldn't work. Never mind.

7. Okay. Just making sure that you didn't have any evidence against Elenion that's not you-specific (and based on false assumptions....>>).

I thought you might bring that up... >> I object to that analogy and think the situation's entirely different, but bah. Fine.

EDIT: Conspiracy theory which I don't think I actually believe: You're Jeskeri, as is Bard. Recalling Elenion (and if you have a Landlord that's easy enough even with just your vote) and killing someone else (maybe me?) tonight makes you have majority in the Senate. Killing Seonid, if he is actually the last one, wins you the game. (If this is the case, congrats. You've done very well as an eliminator this game. Enough so that I'm only about 40% certain you are anymore.)

EDIT 2:

39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also, while I totally might still be upset about you completely annihilating my (what should have been OUR) team, I promise this has nothing to do with that.

No, I know it doesn't. You're fine.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Elbereth

[Ecthelion III he/him]

@Amanuensis

Why would Elbereth (who you're so sure is a Derethi), after learning that cloudjumper is a Jeskeri, lie and say that he is village? I would think that the Derethi would want the Jeskeri dead, in which case Elbereth would have truthfully said that cloudjumper is Jeskeri.

I think you truly believe that Elbereth is Derethi, and after we lynch Seonid and Elbereth, you and Bard will win the game for the Jeskeri.

You just want to divert attention from yourself by getting after Elenion when the only thing you have against him is "Given that I know Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, that means the only possible Jeskeri of the original Senators is Elenion..." That's not grounds for anyone to follow you in removing Elenion.

Amanuensis