Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

 

@Amanuensis

Why would Elbereth (who you're so sure is a Derethi), after learning that cloudjumper is a Jeskeri, lie and say that he is village? I would think that the Derethi would want the Jeskeri dead, in which case Elbereth would have truthfully said that cloudjumper is Jeskeri.

I think you truly believe that Elbereth is Derethi, and after we lynch Seonid and Elbereth, you and Bard will win the game for the Jeskeri.

You just want to divert attention from yourself by getting after Elenion when the only thing you have against him is "Given that I know Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, that means the only possible Jeskeri of the original Senators is Elenion..." That's not grounds for anyone to follow you in removing Elenion.

Amanuensis

Not necessarily. The Derethi just need to outnumber all other players. Getting a second Jeskeri killed after they just lost Conq wouldn't really help them. Not if they could establish an alliance. By revealing to the Jeskeri that she was Derethi by lying, that would encourage them to target a different Senator with their attack (myself or Bard). It would have been a lot smarter for the Jeskeri to have taken the alliance, too, because they would be able to hold knowing Elbereth's alignment in reserve for when they were absolutely certain she was the last one. That being said, I'm not entirely convinced cloud is Jeskeri. Based of early reads of him, I believe he is a villager.

That would mean that the Jeskeri began with 2 Senators. If you honestly think that's more likely than Elenion being the only starting Jeskeri senator, I'm rather disappointed.

How am I diverting attention from myself to Elenion? If Bard and I were both Jeskeri I would have never suggested recalling Elenion, as I could easily just kill him tonight. It would be a matter of convincing the Kesegan Monk to protect Straw since he's confirmed good, and it'd be over when we lynched Seonid. The only reason why I would vote to recall a Senator at this point is because I'm very confident that they are Jeskeri and don't want the village to lose the game after all the good work we've done so far.

Do you want me to go ahead and point out all the reasons why I think Elenion is Jeskeri? Because I do have a list, as well as a list of reasons for why I'm clearly not Jeskeri.

[Elenion he/him]

I believe that El is Derethi, but I have just realized what's really going on here. It's you, Aman, that are Jeskeri. Here's how your plan goes:

1. There are currently 2 Jeskeri senators (Aman and Bard, who he has cleared), 1 Derethi senator (El), and 2 village senators (Cloud and Elenion)
2. A Jeskeri landlord (or, if they have no living ones, a fellow Jeskeri) pitches in a vote on top of Aman's, kicking me off of the senate
3. Seonid is killed next day, leaving 4 senators, 2 of which are Jeskeri (Bard and Aman against village Cloud and Derethi El)
4. Next night's Derethi kill can't hurt Aman or Cloud, and they wouldn't kill El, so the worst they can do is kill Bard if the monk didn't protect him
5. Even if Bard dies, there is 1 Jeskeri senator (Aman), 1 Derethi senator (El) and 1 village senator (Cloud), plus another senator that was elected, most likely village Straw,
6. Jeskeri recall votest that same night can pull Cloud off of the senate using the justification that he's suspicious by association with El, leaving only Aman (J), El (D), and Straw (V)
7. The next day, El (D) is killed by lynch
8. Now the senate has two members, one of which is Aman (J)
9. The Jeskeri win

But Aman, your plan has targeted the wrong senator first. You may have a landlord backing you (or we may have killed your only landlord), but I'm a claimed Landlord. With my extra vote on you, you and your Jeskeri followers will lose half of your senate presence, and next election we can replace you with Straw.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Elenion

[Elenion he/him]

22 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

@Amanuensis

Why would Elbereth (who you're so sure is a Derethi), after learning that cloudjumper is a Jeskeri, lie and say that he is village? I would think that the Derethi would want the Jeskeri dead, in which case Elbereth would have truthfully said that cloudjumper is Jeskeri.

I think you truly believe that Elbereth is Derethi, and after we lynch Seonid and Elbereth, you and Bard will win the game for the Jeskeri.

You just want to divert attention from yourself by getting after Elenion when the only thing you have against him is "Given that I know Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, that means the only possible Jeskeri of the original Senators is Elenion..." That's not grounds for anyone to follow you in removing Elenion.

Amanuensis

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

**I don't know how to insert a new quote while editing, hence the DP**

Edited July 20, 2016 by Elenion

[Ecthelion III he/him]

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

it'd be over when we lynched Seonid

Uhhh... I thought you had just gotten done trying to tell us that Elbereth is confirmed Derethi! So your Jeskeri plan is to kill Elbereth tonight and lynch Seonid tomorrow, huh?

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

I believe that El is Derethi, but I have just realized what's really going on here. It's you, Aman, that are Jeskeri. Here's how your plan goes:

1. There are currently 2 Jeskeri senators (Aman and Bard, who he has cleared), 1 Derethi senator (El), and 2 village senators (Cloud and Elenion)
2. A Jeskeri landlord (or, if they have no living ones, a fellow Jeskeri) pitches in a vote on top of Aman's, kicking me off of the senate
3. Seonid is killed next day, leaving 4 senators, 2 of which are Jeskeri (Bard and Aman against village Cloud and Derethi El)
4. Next night's Derethi kill can't hurt Aman or Cloud, and they wouldn't kill El, so the worst they can do is kill Bard if the monk didn't protect him
5. Even if Bard dies, there is 1 Jeskeri senator (Aman), 1 Derethi senator (El) and 1 village senator (Cloud), plus another senator that was elected, most likely village Straw,
6. Jeskeri recall votest that same night can pull Cloud off of the senate using the justification that he's suspicious by association with El, leaving only Aman (J), El (D), and Straw (V)
7. The next day, El (D) is killed by lynch
8. Now the senate has two members, one of which is Aman (J)
9. The Jeskeri win

But Aman, your plan has targeted the wrong senator first. You may have a landlord backing you (or we may have killed your only landlord), but I'm a claimed Landlord. With my extra vote on you, you and your Jeskeri followers will lose half of your senate presence, and next election we can replace you with Straw.

 

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

**I don't know how to insert a new quote while editing, hence the DP**

Except it's you, Elenion, that is Jeskeri.

1. Once again, that would mean the Senate began with 2 Jeskeri, which until now (until it became convenient to believe to preserve yourself?) you have doubted along with everyone else. Funny that your change your tune when it results in you being recalled before you can win the game.
2. I severely doubt the Jeskeri have a second Landlord, but either way, it shouldn't even require a second Jeskeri to vote for you, since it makes the most sense that you are the Jeskeri between us.
3. Once again, you're trying to propagate that both Bard and I began as Senators, AND the fact that his teammate received a scan, which are both extremely unlikely.
4. Nothing to comment on here.
5. You're right, Straw IS likely to be elected, and a confirmed villager, which is why I'm going to beg that the Kesegan Monk protect him tonight. Even so, see next point...
6. Elections and recalls can't occur simultaneously. If there is a missing seat in the Senate it must be filled before another Senator can be kicked out. Therefore impossible.
7. Nothing to comment here.
8. Impossible outcome due to point in bullet 6.
9. Same as above.

I'm sorry Elenion, but there's no possible win for the Jeskeri in that scenario. Also, you being a claimed Landlord doesn't mean you are one. I haven't seen evidence of it yet.

Voice of reason? I'm starting to wonder if she's your fourth teammate now, given how quick she was to support you over me. Which is a part of the reason why I did this in the first place; to see would go to bat for you.

[Elenion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Elections and recalls can't occur simultaneously. If there is a missing seat in the Senate it must be filled before another Senator can be kicked out. Therefore impossible.

To quote from the rules post,  "Each night cycle, there is both an election and a recall election, in which a player is selected to join the Senate and forced to leave the senate, respectively. " And that does trigger after you factor in the Derethi leaving a hole after #4.

And if you want to see proof that I'm a Landlord, just wait for the vote totals on you to come in tomorrow.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

...What the heck, everyone.

23 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

How am I diverting attention from myself to Elenion? If Bard and I were both Jeskeri I would have never suggested recalling Elenion, as I could easily just kill him tonight. It would be a matter of convincing the Kesegan Monk to protect Straw since he's confirmed good, and it'd be over when we lynched Seonid. The only reason why I would vote to recall a Senator at this point is because I'm very confident that they are Jeskeri and don't want the village to lose the game after all the good work we've done so far.

No, that'd just leave it a tie. Five people on the senate, you (if you're Jeskeri) kill one and recall one, and then you have a majority when Seonid is lynched. So if you're Jeskeri, you do need someone recalled. I'm not particularly convinced of that anymore, though. And I don't know what's going on at this point, so I'm going to refrain from a recall vote on anyone. One thing I do think is that you and Elenion probably aren't teammates.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Uhhh... I thought you had just gotten done trying to tell us that Elbereth is confirmed Derethi! So your Jeskeri plan is to kill Elbereth tonight and lynch Seonid tomorrow, huh?

Huh? I just said that if I was Jeskeri I wouldn't risk recalling him and just kill him instead. How could I kill Elbereth and Elenion at once?

2 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

To quote from the rules post,  "Each night cycle, there is both an election and a recall election, in which a player is selected to join the Senate and forced to leave the senate, respectively. "

So yes, the plan holds.

And if you want to see proof that I'm a Landlord, just wait for the vote totals on you to come in tomorrow.

I'm pretty confident that Mek ruled at some point that only one happens at a time. Let me find the clarification.

Just looked. Never mind, you're right on that. However, that plan still makes no sense. That would bank on me being able to convince people to remove cloud too, which would be pointless. Even if he was a Jeskeri too, having only one of them on the Senate won't win them the game. It would be Bard, Straw and I over him. There would be no ground for me to argue him being recalled.

Yeah, I'd rather not "see" proof of that, as that would put the village at severe risk of losing the game.

[Elenion he/him]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Voice of reason? I'm starting to wonder if she's your fourth teammate now, given how quick she was to support you over me. Which is a part of the reason why I did this in the first place; to see would go to bat for you.

If you're referring to Ecthelion III, he is most definitely male. (I know him IRL)

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

One thing I do think is that you and Elenion probably aren't teammates

Although it would be a brilliant move.

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Huh? I just said that if I was Jeskeri I wouldn't risk recalling him and just kill him instead. How could I kill Elbereth and Elenion at once?

You vote me out, not kill me. It still removes me from your victory condition, though.

[Elbereth she/her]

You're thinking of the question about whether we can recall and elect into the same spot when there's five, Aman. Which we can't. If there are four or three, we can recall and elect at the same time. Elenion is correct.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

 

If you're referring to Ecthelion III, he is most definitely male. (I know him IRL)

Although it would be a brilliant move.

You vote me out, not kill me. It still removes me from your victory condition, though.

Ah, I assumed female because of the avatar

Brilliant only if neither of us ended up getting recalled this turn (possible with a tie).

Except once again, what would be the point? If both Bard and I were Jeskeri, I would have never brought this up to begin with. I'd have let the village go on doing nothing with the recall, help lynch Seonid next day turn, kill you next night turn so no confirmed good player could get elected, then lynch Elbereth the next day. It would be 2 to 1 then. The only reason why I am at risk of being recalled right now is because I made an enemy of you (and by consequence, Ecth, who has basically spelled it out for us all that he is also Jeskeri). 

[Elbereth she/her]

No, because the Jeskeri can't kill tomorrow night. They can kill tonight. So you recall a non-Jeskeri senator and kill another, lynch Seonid, and you've already won the game.

3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Although it would be a brilliant move.

It could be (although deliberately voting your own teammate off the Senate when your win con is tied to as many people being on the Senate as possible? Very risky for not much reward, so 'brilliant' is questionable). But I'm about 90% certain that's not the case. Maybe 95.

[Elenion he/him]

Aman's plan is like a Morgul-wound. It looks easily dealt with, until the blade-tip slowly works its way into your heart and kills you slowly from the inside. 

Just now, Amanuensis said:

The only reason why I am at risk of being recalled right now is because I made an enemy of you (and by consequence, Ecth, who has basically spelled it out for us all that he is also Jeskeri). 

If both Ecth and I were Jeskeri then I wouldn't have asked him in Doc for his help. With no supporters I could have taken you with my second vote, leaving me home free and him without a suspicion on him.

[Elbereth she/her]

I believe Aman was referring to the circumstance where Ecthelion jumps to help you without you asking for help. But then again, I have a weak village read on you, so I don't really think either circumstance is the case.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

 

No, because the Jeskeri can't kill tomorrow night. They can kill tonight. So you recall a non-Jeskeri senator and kill another, lynch Seonid, and you've already won the game.

Ah, right. Hadn't considered that they could only kill on even-numbered cycles. Well at that point what it comes down to is the fact that Elenion is wrong, and the more suspicious between the two of us. I have been avoiding analyzing him so far because of the sheer number of posts he's made, but it looks like I have no other choice, since unlike Elenion I have no teammates in a doc to conspire with.

[Elenion he/him]

I wish I had teammates to conspire with, but it's just me and my spare vote.

Speaking of that, it's about time I put it in.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Elenion

[Elbereth she/her]

The more suspicious between the two of you *in your opinion. Not in mine. But... gah. I have no idea. Gut says both of you are good (Elenion more strongly than you). Which is unlikely.

[Elenion he/him]

It would be pretty humorous if we both were villagers squabbling at our own shadows, but since a Jeskeri Aman is a definite possibility I prefer action to observation.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Evidence Against Elenion, Day 1 Addition

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"Ashkelon mused thoughtfully. He was already enjoying the benefits of a senator's salary, although he knew that if he lingered around in the senate for too long he might not live to spend it. The small part of his mind that wasn't thinking about his next purchase was focused on the suspicious Mysterious Figure (The Young Bard) who stuck out on the senate floor. 'I have a bad feeling about that one', Ashkelon thought, before returning to count his stacks of money."

And @cloudjumper, check the current senate document. The lynch votes on you have been negated

First post, bandwagons on bard (he was the fourth to vote for him, the first Elodin, the second Ecth, the third cloud). Jeskeri trying to get a non-Jeskeri Senator lynched? I'm convinced of that, at least. If cloud is also Jeskeri then it could have been in defense of him, too. I have doubts that cloud is Jeskeri, especially after Ecth's last post.

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You seemed aggressive enough to me, and so I'm holding my non-senate vote on you because you strike me as a Cultist, and they eat senators like me for breakfast. However, I have rescinded my Senate vote on you.

Second post, in response to Bard. Nothing too alignment indicative, except for the comment that Cultists "eat senators like me for breakfast." Important to note that the Jeskeri did not attack him N2, despite him being the least likely Senator to be protected.

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Okay @The Young Bard this lynch train does seem a bit bizarre. I'm clearing your Mysterious Figure and instead poke-voting Straw. Haven't seen him yet.

Bard responds to again, and Elenion makes the first retraction on him. Maybe because Meta convinced him that his part in the bandwagon made him suspicious, and he should change his vote? I am beginning to think so. Note that three posts later, Meta makes his first post and votes for Lime for putting a pointless vote on Eramit. Given how close these two posts were together (only two apart), and that length of Elenion / Seonid / Bard's posts versus the length of Meta's, it's likely that they were ninjas, so Meta had already been writing his shpeel about lime before he could see Elenion do the same thing.

Elenion disappears for a while, but not too much later Ecth retracts his vote on Bard in favor of Kipper, while also saying that he's slightly suspicious of Meta without providing a reason. Now that I'm leaning towards Elenion / Ecth both being Jeskeri, suggests to me this was meant to distance himself from Meta.

Next post of Elenion's is to tell the thread a vote tally is being kept up to date on the Senate doc. After that, he agrees with a paragraph I posted about why I think it's unwise to scan Senators. Maybe because he wanted to be free to do as he pleased with risking getting caught by an investigation?

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It appears that Straw is inactive, so I'm switching my vote here to cloudjumper (my reasons can be found in the senate document).

Main reason why I don't think cloud is Jeskeri is because Elenion was the first one to put pressure on him (though it could have been distancing, I doubt it). He was one of the most vocal players accusing cloud of being suspicious (deer in the headlights comparison) and it almost got him lynched as a result. Only, he didn't expect to be a Duelist, let alone claim and request he be scanned instead. This plan backfired on him (from the beginning he was making comments in the doc about making plans), which will point to his reaction towards the end of the turn, when it came down to either lynching Conq - a Jeskeri - or cloud - a claimed Duelist who was advocated to be scanned instead.

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Your plan sounds good until you look at the probabilities. At the start, chances are that one, no more than two of the senators are eliminators. However, by placing only two or three people on the senate, a single eliminator that passes the vetting process (with the help of his friends, or course) has a much higher influence on the senate than now, when he only commands 20% of the vote. Besides, how would we know if the proposed people are actually defenders or just puppets propped up by the Derethi or Cultists? By scan? In my opinion that's a waste of scans; an inside man can lie about the results. My opinion is that the scans are better used for identifying eliminators outside of the senate (although I'm not asking you to assume that I'm a villager; I'll prove that in time).

Edit: In addition, now everyone knows Cloudjumper's (claimed) role. Assuming he is a duelist, he will most likely be killed in the next few nights. If he is not a duelist, he will be killed by lynch. I'd personally hate to waste our senate investigation on a practically-dead character.

Responding to cloud's plan to recall all of the starting Senators and only put confirmed good players in it. Is against this because he is a starting Jeskeri Senator and that only electing confirmed good players makes it impossible for his team to win? I think so. His argument here is very weak compared to the possibility that he has a strong vested interest in remaining in the Senate.

Also, he claims cloud's investigation would be a waste. I responded to this then, but it definitely wouldn't be. It would put a guaranteed villager who can't die to the Jeskeri on the Senate, which is the last thing they want. Guess who was the biggest advocate of cloud getting investigated and elected? Not counting cloud himself, me. Meanwhile Elenion tries to fight it.

Note: Ecth replies next, saying this:

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I'm not sure how much we can trust the Senate. If cloudjumper turns out to be, say, a Jeskeri duelist, and the senator it gets revealed to is a Jeskeri, he could say cloud is a village duelist and that would lock down the monk for the rest of the game.

Other than that it's a good plan. My lynch vote still stands on Conqueror.

Trying to cast doubt on cloud along with him? Weird how in-sync these two players seem from the start, to me. Granted, he did have a vote on Conquestor, but that was early on in the turn and before Straw randomly came on and voted for Conquestor too, he was in no real danger. Could have been a prod for activity and distancing just like my comment earlier about him and Meta. Then, when both cloudjumper and I vote for Conquestor within minutes of each other, cloud for self preservation and me because I had to go and didn't want to risk cloud being killed while I was gone when it would have been much better for the village if he were investigated. At that point, Elenion comes up and adds his vote on Conq too, saying this.

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Since Cloudjumper could be a valuable asset, I'm shifting my vote to Conquestor. However, the distrust level is still high.

Elenion bandwagons onto a pretty much already decided vote, on a player who turns out to be Jeskeri. Him attempting to make it look like he's not Jeskeri by killing an inactive teammate? A definite possibility, supported by the fact that he continues to say that he doesn't trust cloud.

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Can you provide us senators an alternate lynch target? I see you haven't used your lynching vote yet.

Right after Elodin posts asking why I find him suspicious, Elenion says this. Looks to me like he's trying to encourage a villager to give him a new target to bandwagon on, who doesn't happen to be a teammate of his or a claimed Duelist who a lot of players agreed should be investigated first.

Oh look, a post from Meta.

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Okay, I'm back. Sorry I've been gone for so long. Today was much busier than expected. And I'm still not done! I've got about 3 different tasks I need to get done going as we speak! 

First of all I'm just not seeing why everyone is so assured of Bard's innocence; especially people like Aman and Elenion from the Senate Doc. I'm still highly suspicious of him. That bandwagon just feels incredibly orchestrated. We had a discussion about bandwagons in LG22, where we got an Eliminator on the first day. One of the things that I said in there was that, if a bandwagon tends to form quickly and early, it can sometimes be indicative of us barking up the wrong tree. And now, we have exactly that happening right here. Then, every single vote on Bard just vanishes and people start pushing the idea that Bard is innocent. This just seems a little too coordinated for my tastes and I'm still not convinced just because Bard said that he was willing to be scanned. That could be a simple delaying tactic so that they can survive at least another turn. For every Eliminator that claims that they would like to be scanned and that we don't lynch them because of such, that makes it that much more likely that we're going to hit a Villager instead. 

As far as the vote between Cloudjumper and Conquestor goes, I'd rather lynch neither. Lynching an inactive tells us very little in comparison to lynching someone who has been active. This just feels like a waste of a turn in that right, but it is what it is. And I'd rather not kill a Duelist this early on when, even if he is an Eliminator, we can suggest who he should defend and if that player dies, we'll be able to tell that he's lying. So in either case, he either has to work for/with us or reveal himself. 

If I were to go after anyone, it would likely be Elenion or Bard. I'm not buying Bard's claim that he did that just out of paranoia and a lot of what Elenion was saying in the Senate Doc makes me question his motives. There was that bit about "Gambling and lost" with his vote on Seonid earlier and he seemed a little too concerned with getting recalled out of the Senate, IMO. No one had even brought up who should be recalled yet and he was already concerned about it. Why? If he's a villager, wouldn't not being in the Senate make it even less likely that he would be a target? To me, it almost sounds like he knows that he won't be attacked and is more worried about the loss of power. 

I'll hopefully have more once I get done with everything else I need to take care of! 

EDIT: Forgot to take my vote off of Lime.

Mentions that the bandwagon on Bard seemed coordinated (maybe because it was, and by his teammates, no less?). Here I think that he was seeing way too many tells of Elenion's alignment already and was attempting to distance himself from him, in case either of them got killed. This entire time he's casting doubt on the entire Senate (Bard, Aman, Elenion). At this point in the game there was barely any time for a vote shift. It would have looked suspicious if Meta piled a vote on Conq too, so I think that this entire post was posturing for him.

Oh look, Ecth!

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I agree, I'm not 100% sure of Bard's innocence, he did nothing to make me trust him even more than in the beginning. But he's sitting firmly in the middle of the suspiciousness spectrum, and there are some users who are further up... [cough]Cloudjumper[cough]. I'm really doubting his duelist claim for the following reasons: 

1) It's not an easy role to prove

2) The villagers would suffer a lot if they lynched their own duelist, so he's making them second-guess themselves

3) Would a real duelist come out that early? They're the #1 target for the cultists

Elenion also seems a little fishy and a lot agressive. I'll pardon the lurker Conquestor, we can get him another time

Agrees with Meta that he is still suspicious of Bard (I know this isn't very alignment indicative for anyone else, but I know Bard is innocent, and therefore I think he was trying to add strength to Meta's argument). And within the same breath she tries to push the vote back onto cloud. I think he was surprised by how quickly a bandwagon formed on his teammate after his vote and that she wanted to avoid getting him killed if he could. She also says Elenion is fishy and aggressive, which considering her change of tune this late in the game makes me think this was him taking a page from Meta's book and trying to distance himself from Elenion too (likely because he already pointed out in their doc that they seemed to be agreeing too much about things).

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Well, since the Senate is scanning Cloudjumper, back to Conquestor it is, then!

3 minutes left in the cycle, @Mckeedee123

3 minutes left in the cycle and he last minute changes his vote back to Conquestor, which is pointless since cloud didn't have enough votes to get him lynched even with the influence of a Landlord. Once again, trying to reap the benefit of claiming they helped kill a Jeskeri on the first day?

Back to Elenion now...

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I am more than happy to explain myself. About the votes on Bard, I placed both of them in order to put pressure on him. I actually wrote a whole paragraph on my reasoning in the Senate document, and you can read the entire thing there. When I took them away it was because he had passed my test (while Cloudjumper had failed Bard's).

If I was planning something to exonerate Bard, then I probably would have made it more than a little less obvious.

The whole "gambling and lost" was simply me noting that I had used my vote in what I thought would be a formidable, 5-vote attack on Seonid, only to have it ended and my vote rendered ineffective ("lost"). I then retracted my vote to keep it open for others, taking my assets out of my failed attack. When Bard voted for Seonid, I was glad to have my vote back, but held it since Bard was not ready for something as aggressive as a bandwagoned senate vote. Besides, if it really was me planning something with the eliminators then I'd have a better doc for it! 

And about the caring about the senate, I was being paranoid (and I still am, though less). I was enjoying my senate position due to Aman (at least I think it was Aman)'s proposition that we keep current senators in office with bodyguards, and so losing my office became synonymous with getting murdered in the dead of night, because I am not a defense role.

Go ahead and lynch me if you want, but you won't accomplish anything except putting a much-needed villager body on the gallows

Last post for him this turn, in response to Meta's vote on him. Offers explanation for what he did (to give Meta sufficient reason to vote elsewhere next turn?). Not really understand all of these bits about tests and gambling, and I feel it's a weak argument for the actual explanation. He says losing his office would mean him getting killed, which really makes no sense, as that would imply that he would be likely to be attacked if he wasn't a Senator. Why would either faction attack him over other players, like any of the Senators (Jaime, Elbereth) or the "high-threat" non-Senators (Meta)?

 

Need me to analyze more? Or is this enough? I should probably point out that in addition to being one of the players who clearly advocated for cloudjumper getting investigated first and then elected to the Senate, I was also the one that presented the plan to leave the Senate as it is AND only elect confirmed good Senators, to make sure that the Jeskeri could not possibly win this game. Granted, if this conspiracy theory about Bard and I both being starting Senators was true (which it isn't), the point still remains. Elenion has done many things that suggest he is Jeskeri. I have done many things that have not. No, it was not an elaborate ploy on my part. Sometimes the obvious explanation / easy answer IS the right answer. This is definitely not one of those situations where it isn't. Besides, the only reason why I caught Mailliw and Seonid to begin with, when you really boil down to it, is because after Meta was revealed evil the turn he was inactive, I was convinced the missing kill was because the Jeskeri never got on to put in the orders, and pointed out their connections to him.

 

@Elbereth If you really aren't Derethi and you want the village to win, I ask that you vote for Elenion to be recalled. Otherwise by not acting you're allowing the Jeskeri to get exactly what they want. One less Senator and an Aman vulnerable to their kill, to keep me from further analyzing them. Also, if I do get recalled and you are truly not a Derethi, then they could easily kill me too, which given the fact that I caught both Mailliw and Seonid, I'm sure they would very much love to exact their revenge on me.

@Ecthelion III If you aren't actually Jeskeri and you want the village to win, seriously consider what I'm saying. Do you honestly believe that it's more likely that Bard and I both started out as Jeskeri Senators and that he encouraged himself get scanned with the 40% chance one of us would get the result, and that the 20% chance where I got it and confirmed his alignment was what won? Or that Elenion is the only Jeskeri that began on the Senate?

@The Young Bard, @cloudjumper, @Straw... you are the only three players I really trust are village right now. Will you help me remove the Jeskeri Senator now and elect Straw the next night to ensure there's no way they can win? Or will you sit idly by and let them have a chance at winning by letting them remove me (and likely get me killed) tonight?

Edited July 20, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elenion he/him]

20 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

First post, bandwagons on bard (he was the fourth to vote for him, the first Elodin, the second Ecth, the third cloud). Jeskeri trying to get a non-Jeskeri Senator lynched? I'm convinced of that, at least. If cloud is also Jeskeri then it could have been in defense of him, too. I have doubts that cloud is Jeskeri, especially after Ecth's last post.

Not much I can really say here, except that Ecth's last post didn't even mention Cloud.

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Second post, in response to Bard. Nothing too alignment indicative, except for the comment that Cultists "eat senators like me for breakfast." Important to note that the Jeskeri did not attack him N2, despite him being the least likely Senator to be protected.

Maybe it was because I was so off-target with my allegations against Bard (we assume in this case that you're telling the truth on him). If I was a Jeskeri I'd let the overaggressive senator lynch some of his own people, get offed because of it, and not have to worry about him again, all with no effort on my part.

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Bard responds to again, and Elenion makes the first retraction on him. Maybe because Meta convinced him that his part in the bandwagon made him suspicious, and he should change his vote? I am beginning to think so. Note that three posts later, Meta makes his first post and votes for Lime for putting a pointless vote on Eramit. Given how close these two posts were together (only two apart), and that length of Elenion / Seonid / Bard's posts versus the length of Meta's, it's likely that they were ninjas, so Meta had already been writing his shpeel about lime before he could see Elenion do the same thing.

Elenion disappears for a while, but not too much later Ecth retracts his vote on Bard in favor of Kipper, while also saying that he's slightly suspicious of Meta without providing a reason. Now that I'm leaning towards Elenion / Ecth both being Jeskeri, suggests to me this was meant to distance himself from Meta.

Next post of Elenion's is to tell the thread a vote tally is being kept up to date on the Senate doc. After that, he agrees with a paragraph I posted about why I think it's unwise to scan Senators. Maybe because he wanted to be free to do as he pleased with risking getting caught by an investigation?

Ninjas? I like the sound of that! 

And of course I'll agree with not scanning Senators, since that means no one will waste any scans on me, turning up village landlord. There were better scans to make, like that one on Eramit.

26 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Main reason why I don't think cloud is Jeskeri is because Elenion was the first one to put pressure on him (though it could have been distancing, I doubt it). He was one of the most vocal players accusing cloud of being suspicious (deer in the headlights comparison) and it almost got him lynched as a result. Only, he didn't expect to be a Duelist, let alone claim and request he be scanned instead. This plan backfired on him (from the beginning he was making comments in the doc about making plans), which will point to his reaction towards the end of the turn, when it came down to either lynching Conq - a Jeskeri - or cloud - a claimed Duelist who was advocated to be scanned instead.

I did have a tough decision at that stage, but it isn't the one you think. My decision was: lynch a claimed duelist who is either one of our biggest assets or an elim in deep cover, or kill an inactive that hadn't interacted with anyone. I had no way of knowing Cloud was legit, and had no way of knowing Conq was a Jeskeri.

28 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Right after Elodin posts asking why I find him suspicious, Elenion says this. Looks to me like he's trying to encourage a villager to give him a new target to bandwagon on, who doesn't happen to be a teammate of his or a claimed Duelist who a lot of players agreed should be investigated first.

I fired this one off because the poster (I even forgot who) didn't want to vote for either candidate. I was encouraging him to reason out another choice and name his reasons for lynching them, to see if I'd rather lynch them. Sure I didn't want Cloud or Conq, because one was a claimed duelist and one was inactive, and I was against lynching inactives blindly, up until it seemed that one of the elim teams was inactive. A third choice is exactly what I needed, but not in the way you allege.

31 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Mentions that the bandwagon on Bard seemed coordinated (maybe because it was, and by his teammates, no less?). Here I think that he was seeing way too many tells of Elenion's alignment already and was attempting to distance himself from him, in case either of them got killed. This entire time he's casting doubt on the entire Senate (Bard, Aman, Elenion). At this point in the game there was barely any time for a vote shift. It would have looked suspicious if Meta piled a vote on Conq too, so I think that this entire post was posturing for him.

I can't speak for Meta because I can't communicate with a Jeskeri player in a no-PMs game.

33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Agrees with Meta that he is still suspicious of Bard (I know this isn't very alignment indicative for anyone else, but I know Bard is innocent, and therefore I think he was trying to add strength to Meta's argument). And within the same breath she tries to push the vote back onto cloud. I think he was surprised by how quickly a bandwagon formed on his teammate after his vote and that she wanted to avoid getting him killed if he could. She also says Elenion is fishy and aggressive, which considering her change of tune this late in the game makes me think this was him taking a page from Meta's book and trying to distance himself from Elenion too (likely because he already pointed out in their doc that they seemed to be agreeing too much about things).

I have to discredit your analysis slightly because you have the wrong gender for Ecth. I know him IRL.

34 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

3 minutes left in the cycle and he last minute changes his vote back to Conquestor, which is pointless since cloud didn't have enough votes to get him lynched even with the influence of a Landlord. Once again, trying to reap the benefit of claiming they helped kill a Jeskeri on the first day?

Maybe he shifted his vote off of Cloud because he realized it wasn't doing anything, and so didn't want it to impede the votes on Conq. Also, Landlord can't affect lynch votes.

35 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Last post for him this turn, in response to Meta's vote on him. Offers explanation for what he did (to give Meta sufficient reason to vote elsewhere next turn?). Not really understand all of these bits about tests and gambling, and I feel it's a weak argument for the actual explanation. He says losing his office would mean him getting killed, which really makes no sense, as that would imply that he would be likely to be attacked if he wasn't a Senator. Why would either faction attack him over other players, like any of the Senators (Jaime, Elbereth) or the "high-threat" non-Senators (Meta)?

My explanation was for explaining why I shouldn't get lynched, the most obvious choice. Yes, you were right in saying that the most obvious choice sometimes is the right one.

 

I will close my argument with this: I am willing to die if it gets the Jeskeri Aman off of the senate. When my role is revealed, it will say Village Landlord. I only ask that if/when I do, and my allegiance is proven, that all those who voted on me will saddle Aman with a mile-long lynch train and reveal him for what he is. So, @The Young Bard, @cloudjumper, @Straw, make the vote that you believe is best.

[Elenion he/him]

46 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If you aren't actually Jeskeri and you want the village to win, seriously consider what I'm saying. Do you honestly believe that it's more likely that Bard and I both started out as Jeskeri Senators and that he encouraged himself get scanned with the 40% chance one of us would get the result, and that the 20% chance where I got it and confirmed his alignment was what won? Or that Elenion is the only Jeskeri that began on the Senate?

Your probabilities are a little off: there's the chance the he got his own results but you claimed to have gotten them. Such a thing is easily coordinated in a doc.

**Again, DP due to the edit issues**

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Quote

Voice of reason? I'm starting to wonder if she's your fourth teammate now, given how quick she was to support you over me. Which is a part of the reason why I did this in the first place; to see would go to bat for you.

Of course I'm Elenion's teammate! We're both village! My "going to bat" for him was simply my opinion that your statement "I know myself and the other guy I got the scan results for are innocent, therefor Elenion is guilty" is in no way a good reason for booting someone off the Senate.

You're so convinced that there's one Jeskeri on the Senate. I would be willing to compromise (maybe) that you're village and Elbereth is the Jeskeri. This theory makes pretty good sense to me: N2, Seonid was supposed to submit the Derethi kill but didn't actually. The Jeskeri did a WGG on El.

(Although, at the same time, I'm also unsure whether there was actually a WGG. It is a 2-faction game, so anyone attacked isn't necessarily cleared.)

Quote

Do you honestly believe that it's more likely that Bard and I both started out as Jeskeri Senators and that he encouraged himself get scanned with the 40% chance one of us would get the result, and that the 20% chance where I got it and confirmed his alignment was what won? Or that Elenion is the only Jeskeri that began on the Senate?

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I thought Young Bard requested a scan to avoid lynch. It's better to have a 40% chance of survival from a scan than a 0% chance of survival from a lynch.

I also think that repeatedly hiding behind probability is not a legitimate reason to prove you as innocent. Then if it turns out Elenion dies and he really is village, you can just say "oh, the probability must have been off, oh well.

(sorry, spacing issues)
You're saying that it's "probable" you're not an eliminator. If I ever go to court, I want a storming better defense than "it's probable that I didn't commit this crime".

Quote

3 minutes left in the cycle and he last minute changes his vote back to Conquestor, which is pointless since cloud didn't have enough votes to get him lynched even with the influence of a Landlord. Once again, trying to reap the benefit of claiming they helped kill a Jeskeri on the first day?

You seriously took this one out of context. My vote had been on Conquestor before, but I switched it to Cloudjumper because I was more suspicious of him, then switched it right back to Conquestor when I saw the senators had decided to scan cloudjumper.

Also, I don't know how relevant this is, but I didn't post that 3 minutes before the end of the cycle, I posted it 15 minutes before the end of the cycle, then updated it later. Notice that the post says: "Edited by Ecthelion III...countdown update."

 

You said in the thread of the new game to not trust anyone until they give you a reason to trust them, and you definitely have not given me a reason to trust you.

[Elenion he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

You're saying that it's "probable" you're not an eliminator. If I ever go to court, I want a storming better defense than "it's probable that I didn't commit this crime".

Someone get Hoid's bacon, because the grill is definitely on. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

Not much I can really say here, except that Ecth's last post didn't even mention Cloud.

Maybe it was because I was so off-target with my allegations against Bard (we assume in this case that you're telling the truth on him). If I was a Jeskeri I'd let the overaggressive senator lynch some of his own people, get offed because of it, and not have to worry about him again, all with no effort on my part.

Ninjas? I like the sound of that! 

And of course I'll agree with not scanning Senators, since that means no one will waste any scans on me, turning up village landlord. There were better scans to make, like that one on Eramit.

I did have a tough decision at that stage, but it isn't the one you think. My decision was: lynch a claimed duelist who is either one of our biggest assets or an elim in deep cover, or kill an inactive that hadn't interacted with anyone. I had no way of knowing Cloud was legit, and had no way of knowing Conq was a Jeskeri.

I fired this one off because the poster (I even forgot who) didn't want to vote for either candidate. I was encouraging him to reason out another choice and name his reasons for lynching them, to see if I'd rather lynch them. Sure I didn't want Cloud or Conq, because one was a claimed duelist and one was inactive, and I was against lynching inactives blindly, up until it seemed that one of the elim teams was inactive. A third choice is exactly what I needed, but not in the way you allege.

I can't speak for Meta because I can't communicate with a Jeskeri player in a no-PMs game.

I have to discredit your analysis slightly because you have the wrong gender for Ecth. I know him IRL.

Maybe he shifted his vote off of Cloud because he realized it wasn't doing anything, and so didn't want it to impede the votes on Conq. Also, Landlord can't affect lynch votes.

My explanation was for explaining why I shouldn't get lynched, the most obvious choice. Yes, you were right in saying that the most obvious choice sometimes is the right one.

 

I will close my argument with this: I am willing to die if it gets the Jeskeri Aman off of the senate. When my role is revealed, it will say Village Landlord. I only ask that if/when I do, and my allegiance is proven, that all those who voted on me will saddle Aman with a mile-long lynch train and reveal him for what he is. So, @The Young Bard, @cloudjumper, @Straw, make the vote that you believe is best.

1. Not sure how cloud is relevant there
2. Maybe. But I think that scenario is less likely.
3. It's our term for when someone posts while you're writing a post. It is quite amusing, eh?
4. I've used the same argument; still doesn't change the fact that you could have ulterior motives in saying that.
5. No, you might not have been able to know that cloud was legit as a villager, but strategically it makes the most sense to practice caution this early when a player claims a role like that. I've been pretty impressed with you so far this game, and therefore would expect you to realize that, and not be so torn about it unless you were really a Jeskeri and didn't want to kill one of your own.
6. Once again, possible explanation, but given that Conq was a Jeskeri, I'm doubtful.
7. Right, right  still not convinced you weren't in a doc with him.
8. Sorry, I keep getting confused by his avatar. I interchanged he and she there multiple times. Either way, my response to that quote is still relevant and valid.
9. Right, Landlord only effects elections / recalls. Remembering that, it makes absolutely no sense to stack a 6th vote on Conq. He was already going to die. Him not voting for Conq would not impede it at all. The only benefit in that is potentially making him look good for lynching a Jeskeri, something only a Jeskeri would know ahead of time
10. Eh, nothing wrong with defending yourself, people are going to do that regardless of alignment. Doesn't change the fact that you did many suspicious things, in my opinion.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Gah. Something is wrong. This just doesn't feel right. But I'm sorry, Elenion. Aman has a well constructed case, and your refutation didn't convince me.

 

Edit: can anyone explain why I can't color Elenion's name?

Edited July 20, 2016 by little wilson
I'm a ninja saving you