Mid-Range Game 15: The Dula Revolution

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Or Aman could just be playing mind games, and he's actually a Derethi.

Also, you know Young Bard's role. You received the scan.

[Elbereth she/her]

Well done, Aman. My instincts told me you were evil, but even though I know how good you are, I eventually confused myself enough not to suspect you nearly as much anymore. 

And heh. You get to be an outed eliminator for the third time.  That's just hilarious. 

[Elenion he/him]

@Amanuensis What if you're Derethi but claiming outed Jeskeri? Now that would be brilliant, although you would have had to bus your friends.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Aman could still be playing mind games with us. I say we lynch him today and keep tabs on Emily's activity level, then see if the Jeskeri kills stop. (Kipper, this doesn't mean I'm not suspicious of you.)

Scan Kipper, maybe?

Edited July 23, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

 

 

Or Aman could just be playing mind games, and he's actually a Derethi.

Also, you know Young Bard's role. You received the scan.

If you honestly think I'm a Derethi after me single-handedly catching Mailliw and Seonid... nevermind, no comment.

3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

 

So I was right in those debates! By the end I was actually pretty sure I was just blowing hot air.

But I know the strength of an outed elim, and don't trust everything you say. But I am pretty sure Bard is village, because the probability is against anything else.

Eh, I wouldn't even consider myself an eliminator at this point. I can confirm that the Derethi did indeed attack Elbereth N2. I did not put the kill order in because I was protecting myself to make sure the Derethi couldn't kill me. Meta was busy with his birthday, and Lime never showed up (she's been missing ever since). I talked to Alvron on N4, however, and he said I could put two orders in, so I attacked Bard (hoping he didn't put his order in to protect himself after being offline for 18 hours). So yeah, I've killed no one (except a Jeskeri AND two Derethi).

Just now, Ecthelion III said:

 

Aman could still be playing mind games with us. I say we lynch him today and keep tabs on Emily's activity level, then see if the kills stop. (Kipper, this doesn't mean I'm not suspicious of you.)

Scan Kipper, maybe?

>.>

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Legit question. Why are you suspicious of Orlok after he defended you?

[Elenion he/him]

@Ecthelion III we could use the kill and we know exactly who to blame if it doesn't follow our lead. I'd leave him alive.

Orlok I'm suspicious of because he became active just as the Derethi needed another player to put in the kill. Coincidence?

Edited July 23, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Ecthelion III said:

Legit question. Why are you suspicious of Orlok after he defended you?

It's not that I'm necessarily suspicious of him (this is actually one of the few games where I actually believe he is innocent). It's that he's one of a handful of players I can't confirm through context. He's at the bottom of my list of suspects, hence the fact he was last on that list.

[Elenion he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It's not that I'm necessarily suspicious of him (this is actually one of the few games where I actually believe he is innocent). It's that he's one of a handful of players I can't confirm through context. He's at the bottom of my list of suspects, hence the fact he was last on that list.

What about Kipper? El's ready to lynch him, and Len the Bandwagoner will go along with it. Orlok is still suspicious but I'll hold off on that until I get more proof.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

 

 

 

@Ecthelion III we could use the kill and we know exactly who to blame if it doesn't follow our lead. I'd leave him alive.

Orlok I'm suspicious of because he became active just as the Derethi needed another player to put in the kill. Coincidence?

I really don't think Orlok is Derethi. If he was he would have sided with you two nights ago to get me recalled, rather than with me, and then had the order put on me to die so they could remove me. Derethi don't care about if Jeskeri are on the Senate or not. They just care about getting rid of players with influence and power.

I think the best course of action right now is lynch Kipper, investigate Sart, and if neither of them turn out to be Derethi then we can discuss who you want me to use the Jeskeri kill on tonight. I severely doubt it will come to that, though. The only thing that I think is weird is that Bard was attacked despite me being recalled. I mean, I guess it was close enough there at the end that they could think it'd be tipped onto him, but I doubt it. That could be explained by an order put in ahead of time, before the sudden votes on either of us; but that doesn't seem likely to me, either. More likely a result of a player who hasn't been paying much attention to the game: hence Kipper and Sart.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Ecthelion III he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

>.>

I think it's understandable that I want to get you lynched, considering that I'm on your list of people you want to end up killing!

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

 

 

I think it's understandable that I want to get you lynched, considering that I'm on your list of people you want to end up killing!

 

You're on the bottom of it, and that's only because you keep doing things I think are suspicious / I haven't seen you do anything to harm the Derethi yet. But if you're not Derethi you have nothing to worry about. 

Edited July 23, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elenion he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I really don't think Orlok is Derethi. If he was he would have sided with you two nights ago to get me recalled, rather than with me, and then had the order put on me to die so they could remove me. Derethi don't care about if Jeskeri are on the Senate or not. They just care about getting rid of players with influence and power.

I think the best course of action right now is lynch Kipper, investigate Sart, and if neither of them turn out to be Derethi then we can discuss who you want me to use the Jeskeri kill on tonight. I severely doubt it will come to that, though. The only thing that I think is weird is that Bard was attacked despite me being recalled. I mean, I guess it was close enough there at the end that they thought it'd be tipped onto him, but I doubt it. That could be explained by an order put in ahead of time, before the sudden votes on either of us; but that doesn't seem likely.

I want to settle El's allegiance once and for all, but I edited my previous post to move my vote to Kipper as well.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Fine. Kipper Aman

 

[Elenion he/him]

@Amanuensis El and I in the senate already have votes down, and since we're down to 4 members it looks like the senate lynch/scan will hit Kipper and El, respectively. With El cleared we can clear the entire senate. I'd suggest you hit Ecth, Orlok, or Sart tonight.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I propose Amanuensis for the honorary villager award. I mean, seriously. What kind of eliminator fails to kill a single villager? (I've literally only voted for 1 Jeskeri and 3 Derethi this entire game).

[Elenion he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I propose Amanuensis for the honorary villager award. I mean, seriously. What kind of eliminator fails to kill a single villager? (I've literally only voted for 1 Jeskeri and 3 Derethi this entire game).

I second the award. We need one for everyone. Wait while I get a player list.

1. Elbereth- Elbereth: Most Scans Targeting

2. Mailliw- Reomaim: You Defended Who?!?

3. Cloudjumper- Kelron: First Role Claim

4. The Young Bard- The Mysterious Figure: Phantom Lynch Train Recipient

5. Ecthelion III- Aeleus: Gender Most Confused

6. Orlok- Locke:

7. Elodin- oaR: First Village Death

8. Straw- Straw:

9. Conquestor- Lorienthe: D1 Death

10. Eramit- Kolokolo Kolo: The Baddie Boss

11. Metacognition- Meta: Hardest to Kill

12. emilylime- Lime: The Bus Victim

13. Eolhandras- Eolhandras:

14. Elenion- Ashkelon: Biggest Bandwagoner

15. Sart- Sart:

16. Jaimelecee- Jaena: Shouldn't have Stored that Luck

17. Amanuensis- Opalin: Honorary Villager

18. Seonid- Sheon Idris:

19. Kipper- Kipper:

 

Anyone have ideas for some more?

Edited July 23, 2016 by Elenion

[Eolhondras he/him]

Very well played Aman. If what you've said is true, you were faced with an impossible situation and nearly made something of it. Had night 4 had gone your way, or had you been slightly less astute in your hunt for eliminators, this could have been a very different game.

I'd like to say that I think the scan of El is a waste. The majority of suspicion around her is based on the supposed WGG of night 2, however I was protecting El night 2, so I assume Mailliw was just trying to feed a rumor. 

I'm for the lynch of Kipper, though I'd prefer the scan to be on Sart or Orlok.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

(This took place during Night Five)

Aeleus opened the front door of his house, satisfied. Despite the late hour, he wasn't tired at all. He removed the fresh vial of blood--Seonid's this time--from his jacket pocket and placed it on the table. He walked over to his bookshelf and slid aside a few tomes, then reached into the compartment behind them and took out a box.

He rummaged through the box for a few moments, setting aside a tray of stamps and a carving knife until he found what he was looking for: a chemical testing kit and the vial of blood from Jaena's corpse, preserved by some unholy magic.

*       *       *

After an hour of grueling tests, Aeleus finally had his results: not a match! So, Aeleus thought, there's more of those blasted Derethi around.

Slightly smiling, he reached back into the compartment behind the bookshelf and removed two long cylinders of wood. One was roughly bone-shaped, but with much sharper points than natural. The other was simply an uncut rod. Aeleus hummed to himself as he grabbed the carving knife and got to work.

Don't work too late, the rational side of his brain (the significantly smaller side) told him. Tomorrow morning, you've got a ShinDa game to win...

Edited July 23, 2016 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Eolhondras said:

Very well played Aman. If what you've said is true, you were faced with an impossible situation and nearly made something of it. Had night 4 had gone your way, or had you been slightly less astute in your hunt for eliminators, this could have been a very different game.

I'd like to say that I think the scan of El is a waste. The majority of suspicion around her is based on the supposed WGG of night 2, however I was protecting El night 2, so I assume Mailliw was just trying to feed a rumor. 

I'm for the lynch of Kipper, though I'd prefer the scan to be on Sart or Orlok.

Are you a duelist or a monk?

As for the scan, I'm beginning to think that you may be right. But my gut keeps telling me to scan El, so... I'm torn. I should have my mind made up before turnover, though.

[Eolhondras he/him]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Are you a duelist or a monk?

As for the scan, I'm beginning to think that you may be right. But my gut keeps telling me to scan El, so... I'm torn. I should have my mind made up before turnover, though.

Duelist, else i probably would have killed one of those three last night.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Aman. I'm sorry, but there is absolutely no way I'm going to support leaving you alive as an outed eliminator. Yes, you're an incredible asset to the village as a villager but currently, knowing your analysis is definitely nested with secondary motives, and predicated on a win condition at odds with the village, I think the rewards of keeping you alive are not justified - you pose far too great a threat simply on the strength of your persuasive ability deployed to mislead us.

@Elenion, I'm afraid we're going to disagree again.

Quote

4. Mayor it up

(sad but effective)

I cannot overstate how vehemently opposed I am to this. As I said yesterday, SE games are about having fun - and mayors remove that fun for everyone but those involved in the mayoralty. I would significantly prefer to lose this game, but have most of the players enjoy it to the end than have a guaranteed village win in which I, and most other players can only follow your lead.

Rest assured, if a mayoralty does develop, I will not comply with it, even if it makes strategic sense to do so.

Returning to the game at hand, would you care to explain this:

Quote

Well done indeed. Now let's avenge him with a lynching rope.

Avenge him?! Aman is not a villager - he's been actively working against the village. We owe him nothing but a quick death. His suspicions cannot be trusted at all - and particularly his statement of being the last active Jeskeri is suspect.

Further, your statements about me in the senate doc are nonsensical.

Quote

Orlok and Ecth are his (Aman's) Prime suspects. I lean more towards Orlok

I've been at the bottom of Aman's suspect list for the last few turns - indeed, this is one of the few games he actually considers me to be a villager.

Quote

I'd suggest killing Orlok: he's been active enough to put in the kill orders.

And so have any number of other players - I find the idea of deserving a lynch on the basis of actually playing both confusing when I could apply the same statement to you, to Elb, or half the player list, but also counterproductive for the meta game. Yes, I was inactive earlier in the game - I didn't have Wi-Fi access during the day, and had no energy at night, but returned as soon as I could. In my mind, I think that returning from inactivity is behaviour that should be encouraged, not be grounds for lynching.

Edited July 23, 2016 by OrlokTsubodai
Correcting typo

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Aman. I'm sorry, but there is absolutely no way I'm going to support leaving you alive as an outed eliminator. Yes, you're an incredible asset to the village as a villager but currently, knowing your analysis is definitely nested with secondary motives, and predicated on a win condition at odds with the village, I think the rewards of keeping you alive are not justified - you pose far too great a threat simply on the strength of your persuasive ability deployed to mislead us.

Though sad that you want to kill me after respectfully admitting defeat, I'll address real quick why it's pointless to lynch me. The village win condition does not involve killing the Jeskeri, only keeping them off of the Senate (which has already been accomplished, partly thanks to your own efforts). Although the Jeskeri are technically eliminators, their win condition does not directly involve killing villagers, just having majority in the Senate (which is impossible for me to orchestrate given a majority of the current players are villagers who now know I am a Jeskeri and will therefore never vote for me to join the Senate again). Besides, is a single kill every two turns even that big of a deal, when you all know where that kill is coming from and who it will be targeting? I suppose I could lie about killing whoever the village decides as a collective next turn, but if I did that, what would I gain? One player killed at the cost of my own life? Yeah, not a wise move on my part, and utterly pointless because if I wanted to just kill whoever I felt like, I would have kept it a secret that I was a Jeskeri anyway.

It's impossible to fulfill my win condition. It's been a daunting challenge from the start, and knowing that, I still tried my best. I honestly believed that Elbereth was the last Derethi the previous turn when I voted to recall Elenion, so upon realizing that, I attempted the only opportunity for victory available to me. 1: Recall Elenion, 2: Kill Bard, 3: Sabotage the next election by dividing the thread between electing two different candidates (wouldn't work unless Emily came back by then), and 4: Lynch Elbereth the next day, leaving only cloud and I on the Senate.

Opalin has now realized that the religious doctrines she was raised on are false, her "god," if such an evil god even truly exists, seems to abandon her just as her parents left her alone and afraid in Duladel, and she is young and impressionable enough to willingly convert to the Korathi faith, so long as it means ridding the world of those Derethi-dogs.

I'm just unsure why killing me at this point is useful for the village. Just like you said you aren't going to listen to a confirmed Senate if you don't want to, you can choose to not listen to me either. Regardless of whether there's a win in this game for me or not, I still have a vested interest in killing the Derethi. Ultimately it comes down to one thing. My team is defeated. Given that there's likely only one Derethi left, that means they'd have to single-handedly kill twelve players to win, including myself (therefore killing them instead of me actually helps them get closer to that goal). I would rather help end the village win this game quicker so the next QF can begin then sit idly by and watch people scramble for a few more cycles.

So, here is my chart straight from the Jeskeri Mysteries Cult Doc. 

Name	Role	Alignment
Amanuensis	Duelist	Jeskeri
cloudjumper	Duelist	Dula
Ecthellion III	???	???
Elbereth	???	???
Elenion	Landlord	Dula
emilylime	Regular	Jeskeri
Eolhandras	“Duelist”	???
Kipper	???	???
OrlokTsubodai	???	???
Sart	???	???
Straw	Korathi Acolyte	Dula
The Young Bard	Duelist	Dula

I count cloudjumper as a confirmed village because he's not Jeskeri and if he were Derethi that would require Elbereth being Derethi too. Now, considering that my own team began with four players (which I think was too few given our win condition) I severely doubt the Derethi began with more than four, especially since this game only had 19 players from the start.

I count Elenion as a confirmed villager because he's not Jeskeri and if he were Derethi I do not believe he would have told the truth about both eramit and Seonid's alignments. That being said, he still could be (especially since no Derethi Landlord has died yet), but that is a long shot and should not be considered until more likely candidates are lynched / investigated first.

Straw's alignment is obvious, and I have absolute evidence of Emily and Bard's alignments (one from a doc, the other from a GM PM). Aside from Elbereth we basically have a guaranteed village Senate right now. That being said, on the subject of mayors. Not really a problem this game because there are no PMs. No secrets can really be kept from the eliminators, except in Straw's doc, but considering Eolhondras and Ecthellion are both in there who I consider wild cards, there's a chance it's compromised already. Even then, no one outside from the players he invites can get role information to them without joining it. So, no issue in that regard. Also, just because players are proven villagers, it does not mean that they need to be listened to by everybody. Everyone is fallible. Just because a player is confirmed good doesn't mean they are always right; all it means is that you have one less person to examine when searching for the eliminators. As long as you follow your own reasoning and instincts there should be no issue with that this game.

Anyway, I'm equally suspicious of Sart and Kipper because they both suddenly returned after Seonid was removed from the game. I caught Shallan for this exact same reason in MR12 (she suddenly returned from inactivity - or lurking - after the last of her active teammates were caught and killed). Both of them only really posted to make sure I was recalled. Sart's got one point in his favor because he advocated replacing me with Straw (hence why I'm voting he get investigated rather than lynched), though it's very possible that was only him stating the obvious to provide some villagery reasoning for getting rid of me. Kipper, on the other hand, didn't even bother to explain himself, which in a way is a point in his favor (I would think he would try to disguise it if he were evil), but that action is a bit more deserving of a lynch than Sart's, in my opinion. Both of them have barely been paying attention to this game, which would explain the attack on Bard over me. But then again, the recall was very close to getting swung off of me at the end there, so it's possible that the last Derethi panicked and attempted to not waste two kills on in a row and changed it last minute.

@Straw @cloudjumper @Eolhondras @The Young Bard @Ecthelion III, can one of you tell me if Bard claimed Duelist when he entered the doc? If he did that might confirm Eolhondras as a villager. I say might because I am severely suspicious of his Duelist claim, and here's why. Between Cloud, Bard, Mailliw and I that makes four Duelists already. Granted, two of those Duelists are eliminators, but with there being a third village Duelist that means it's been impossible for a single member of the Senate to die from the start, barring orders being forgotten or Mailliw not using his ability on Elbereth (if she's not Derethi). Granted, I, and some other players, have already acknowledged that this game has been unbalanced for a while now, but at least in the case of some other scenarios, I really don't want to believe Mek would do that. I guess it could be a byproduct of him counting on recalls occurring every night turn, but... just seems unlikely to me. Eol is definitely not my first choice, but if it's neither Sart or Kipper, than I would definitely suggest having me attack Elbereth tonight and force Eolhondras to prove his Duelist claim by protecting her again. If she survives, then we'd be able to trust he is a village Duelist (I severely doubt the Derethi would be given two of them) and we can then lynch Elbereth and investigate Ecth or Orlok next. If she dies, it'll prove Eolhondras is a liar and we can then lynch him to hopefully finish off the last Derethi. In the former scenario, if both Elbereth and Ecth/Orlok are revealed innocent, all we need to do is lynch that last player and the village wins.

I understand your skepticism in trusting my advice, Orlok, but if I can't win, I'd rather help the majority win rather than the minority (Dulas rather than Derethi).

 

Edited July 23, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Amanuensis, I understand the frustration of waiting for games - I haven't survived past cycle 2 for the last 5 long games I've played.

Your post is hugely appreciated, in terms of material to analyse. However, I believe you to be perfectly capable of misleading us all utterly - I don't trust that you are the last active Jeskeri, for instance. On that basis, I would feel far more comfortable reducing the risk of a 'hammer' vote returning you to the senate through your death.

Yes, I can ignore what you say - but knowing your propensity for deception and overwhelming desire to win, I don't think leaving you alive to whisper honeyed words to those who don't know better than to ignore you at this point is wise!

Personally, I'm suspicious of Elenion - he reacted incredibly strangely to my attempt to have you ejected from the senate, and hasn't been confirmed - a scan on him to prove that he isn't Jeskeri would be my preference.

I'm about to board a flight, so from about 15 minutes time I will not have internet for 3 hours or so.

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Amanuensis, I understand the frustration of waiting for games - I haven't survived past cycle 2 for the last 5 long games I've played.

Your post is hugely appreciated, in terms of material to analyse. However, I believe you to be perfectly capable of misleading us all utterly - I don't trust that you are the last active Jeskeri, for instance. On that basis, I would feel far more comfortable reducing the risk of a 'hammer' vote returning you to the senate through your death.

Yes, I can ignore what you say - but knowing your propensity for deception and overwhelming desire to win, I don't think leaving you alive to whisper honeyed words to those who don't know better than to ignore you at this point is wise!

Personally, I'm suspicious of Elenion - he reacted incredibly strangely to my attempt to have you ejected from the senate, and hasn't been confirmed - a scan on him to prove that he isn't Jeskeri would be my preference.

I'm about to board a flight, so from about 15 minutes time I will not have internet for 3 hours or so.

Yeah, sorry about that, again. I really did forget about you dying early in LG22, let alone you even being in that game. I have a pretty atrocious memory.

I understand that concern. I love hammers and take advantage of them whenever I can. But think about it; why reveal myself if that was my intent? It would have been a lot better to try convincing villagers to re-elect me and supplement it with a hammer. Whether or not you acknowledge that I'm telling the truth about me being the only active Jeskeri, fearing a hammer at this point would involve Jeskeri outnumbering villagers. Do you really think that's likely, with both Conq and Meta dead? At least at this point in the game where 12 players are still alive and only 2 of the 7 dead players are villagers, whether or not there is another active Jeskeri to perform a hammer can easily be prevented by everyone voting to elect Straw next turn.

But my honeyed words are so sweet  and honest!

While possible, I don't believe that Elenion also being Jeskeri is probable. If you think that Elenion and I are both Jeskeri, that would require you acknowledging two facts: first, that the Senate began with two Jeskeri, and second, that the Jeskeri began with two Landlords. Elenion proved this turn that he is a Landlord by adding a recall vote onto Bard.

Safe travels, friend.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Amanuensis