Quick Fix Game 20: Summitmist Manor

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

5 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Umm.. Free pass?

Basically if you're inactive again, then you die. 

[Stick. she/her]

 

24 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Umm.. Free pass?

Posts like this won't count btw :-P

[Haelbarde he/him]

28 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Umm.. Free pass?

As the others have said, the inactivity filter kills players who don't meet my minimum requirements of activity (it's based on if you've posted any game discussion relevant comments and my perception of if you're trying to contribute, either by discussion or RP). But for a couple of reasons, I don't want to instantly kill people who don't post, so everyone has, for want of a better term, a 'free pass' which gets used up the first time you meet the conditions of the filter.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Assassin in Burgundy said:

But wouldn't it have still shown up in the vote count?

I'm seeing a bit of both of you talking past each other here. Nyali is saying that it makes no sense for an Eliminator to allow one of their own to be killed by a random coin-toss (well, RNG), so if JUQ and Arinian had been evil, (and since we already know cloudjumper is a Villager), the Eliminators would have preferred to force a lynch on someone rather than risking a 1/3 chance (epistemically, anyway) that a teammate would die. Sure, JUQ and Arinian could both be Eliminators, but that just stacks the risk even more heavily for the Eliminators: they would then have to run a 2/3rd risk of losing someone, which doesn't make sense on their risk calculus.

I think Assassin (unfortunate name! ) is claiming that it would have been bad for them to have done so, because to do so would be to reveal themselves: generally, the Village frowns very hard on last minute votes, and that would have more or less guaranteed insta-suspicion.

On the first level, both of you are correct: it could have been a case where Team Evil had to weigh the risks between tanking the 1/3rd chance, or tanking the suspicion sure to arise from a last-minute forced-lynch of a Villager. Except that Nyali's reasoning slightly misrepresents things:

The first point of interest I'm going to focus on is the period before 6:25AM. (Everything is indexed to my time, but I've included the relevant posts in the links, so if you're curious what that converts to, just mouseover the 'hours' timestamp to see when they posted.) Why 6:25AM? Because at 6:25AM (my time), the M'Hael reminds everyone that a tied lynch will result in a randomly-chosen death. This could have been because of Magestar's question. Or this could be because the Eliminators asked, in their doc. (Hinting that they might have had reason, this time, to be concerned about a tie - as compared to in the previous cycle.)

So: the state of the voting in the period just before 6:25AM is as follows:

STINK (0): Alvron<1>
Arinian (4): Kasimir <1>, Nyali, JUQ, Kynedath, Alvron<2>
Stick (0): Arinian<1>
Joe (0): Kasimir <2>
JUQ (2): Kasimir <3>, Elenion
Kynedath (3): Doctor, Magestar<1>, Arinian<2>, Arraenae, Arinian<4>
Cloudjumper (2): Sart, Joe
Arraenae (1): STINK, Arinian<3>

I've italicised Alvron<2>, using his shift from STINK to Arinian as the beginning of the period of interest - right before Hael gets on to clarify stuff. What goes on in this period? At 5:52AM, Alv shifts his vote, as previously noted. His reason is that he thinks one of <STINK, Stick, Orlok> is evil, but they won't get lynched today, so he'll go for the lesser evil ( ) and thus Arinian. At 5:59AM, Arinian shifts his vote from Arraenae to Kynedath, chiefly because he doesn't want to die. And a minute later, at 6AM, Elenion puts a vote on JUQ. The state of play, thus, is that we would expect Arinian to be lynched. Kynedath is trailing at 3 votes to 4.

Then: (and this is after Hael's clarification about the tie), at 10:58AM (my time), Doc swaps his vote to JUQ, reasoning he would prefer to force a tie because "I'm less certainty [sic] that kyne or arinian are Elims and I might as well force a tie. " So noted. We now know Doc is a Villager, so that at least doesn't help us too much. The rollover is, for context, about thirty-two minutes away.

This, therefore, is the state of play at 10:58AM:

STINK (0): Alvron<1>
Arinian (4): Kasimir <1>, Nyali, JUQ, Kynedath, Alvron<2>
Stick (0): Arinian<1>
Joe (0): Kasimir <2>
JUQ (3): Kasimir <3>, Elenion, Doctor<2>
Kynedath (2): Doctor<1>, Magestar<1>, Arinian<2>, Arraenae, Arinian<4>
Cloudjumper (2): Sart, Joe
Arraenae (1): STINK, Arinian<3>

Why does this matter? Because the final vote switch happened at 11:24AM. That's not the last second, but that's an extremely last minute switch from Arinian to cloudjumper, coming just six minutes before the rollover. Alv's reasoning appears to be along the lines of, "If Arinian is an Eliminator, then we would expect his teammates to make a fuss about the fact he's headed for a lynch. But there is no such fuss, therefore it seems that Arinian isn't an Eliminator." He removes his vote from Arinian and places it on cloudjumper, giving us a three-way tie between Arinian, JUQ, and cloudjumper. That's immediately strange: if Alv thinks that the lack of fuss surrounding Arinian's lynch indicates Arinian is likely innocent, then why go for a three-way tie? Why not place his vote on JUQ? After all, if he's happy to go for a tie, that means he's okay with a 1/3rd chance JUQ could be lynched. So why suddenly create one?

I initially had more detailed analysis, but I just got massively chewed out by my supervisor, so I'm sorry to drop the ball, but I'm frankly not in the mood to analyse stuff, play, and generally be a fun person right about now. Suffice to say that I think one major caveat on the "Eliminators would save their teammates" narrative would be that they'd have to be on to see Alv's stunt. Not to mention it would depend on how they weighted the risk of being suspicious (for forcing a late lynch) as compared to simply allowing the dice to roll. Let's not forget that if they were suspicious and got lynched because of that last minute vote, it would automatically render whoever they tried to save suspicious. So I'm not really convinced by Nyali's reasoning that this means we shouldn't be as suspicious of Arinian and/or JUQ because they're more likely to be Villagers: Team Evil could simply feel that the consequences of saving a teammate would lead to worse consequences.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

If this is a bit vauge, sorry... im. A little unwell currently and my head is just. Bleh. So. Thisll have to do, 'pologies. I promised I'd do it so i did, even if it isnt as detailed as i had oroginally planned it to be. Bleh.

 

Also claiming those white mage shoes pls!

---

0% good, 50% dunno/neutral, 100% bad/die fiend!
Note- originally i was going to put comments next to all but due to being headachey, d-ya mind if i dont?  Im open to people asking me about specific players percentages though. Cant guarantee i had a reason tho. Some do. Some dont. *shrugs*


1- Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) - 53%
2- Stormblessed (Darkness Ascendant) 45%
3- Sartinia (Sart) 47%
4- Boris (Elenion) 59%
5- Thendir (Magestar) 50%
6- Arinian (Arinian) 44%
7- Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) 48%
8- Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) 55%
11- Stub-Tail (Alvron) 58% - hrm. Hrrmm.... my gut isnt liking you. Idk its... i guess maybe its your voting? Im not sure but. Hmm.
12- Stick (I am a Stick) 49%
13- Kipper (Kipper) 45%
14- Guilty (Elodin) 55%
16- Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) 45%
17- Rhea (Nyali) 47%
18- Jayjay (Arraenae) 53% dunno why but. When i saw doc died i just had this feeling of suspicion and paranoia concerning you.
20- Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) -n/a cause bias. Only really about one post per cycle, hasn't yet voted on anyone. Cant say im contributing too much sorry.
21- Kjartan & Mus (Kasimir) 38% - im finding myself agreeing with most things he says. 
22- John (JUQ) 40%
23- Stink - 44%

 

Note most of these stay within 10% of 50% so these arent really strong reads. But, it at least gives you guys an idea of my views on people currently i guess. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Urgh. Last thoughts before I sign off for the night to get a drink and be utterly miserable about screwing up again and getting yet another yelling at from my supervisor. [Guys, unless you think you're immortal, I'd recommend posting a list of your 'definitive suspicions' and reasoning - doesn't have to be fully done, but at least it gives people something/somewhere to go on, if they should so choose, in case you die by the next cycle.]

So:

At this point, I have no reason to really think so/it's mostly gut, but I'm wary of most of the people lurking around the edges. IMO, inactivity is an extremely unappealing strategy for the Eliminators this game because of the filter, so if you think the Eliminators are chiefly lurking and letting us kill ourselves and loling at our lynches, then you should be looking at the quiet people, or the people appearing to contribute/showing up every once in a while but not doing that much. (Even if you don't think they're all lurkers, it's worth considering that there might be at least one or two of them employing that strategy.) Assassin, for instance, popped up a few times this cycle, but didn't really say much. (And I'm not going to rehash that Wilson v. Elenion and co. issue in LG28, or trigger Kipper with 'oh how the hell do you determine 'much' ' anyway so I'm just going to articulate my standards.) People who say 'much' are people who tell us where they stand. We know who they're suspicious of and why. We know what their views are, which gives us data from which to work: are their views ones that help the Eliminators? Are they responsive to evidence? Are they showing a tendency to distort the events of past cycles? What do they gain from their particular perspectives? Etc.

Some people who've said some things don't really map well onto this metric. Kipper left a promissary note about posting more, and I'm hoping someone will prod him this cycle or the next. I generally think JUQ has been hanging back a bit, but maybe that's me - it would be good to hear more too. Same for Assassin, and I think last cycle, Magestar [I'd consider him a borderline case] asked us to ask him why he thinks Alv is suspicious. Well, okay, I'll bite: why is Alv suspicious, in your view? I find Sart beginning to blend into the background for me, too, but he'd be yet another borderline case. I'd say the same of Burnt and Arinian: given my own RL thing making me not so keen to analyse, I can't blame her, but it's [=her reasons for her suspicions, even if they're in percentages] definitely worth flagging and pursuing over the next cycle. One might wonder about a similar issue for Arinian - lots of his voting appears to be reactionary, i.e. saving his life. Which is understandable, but then that leaves us at a definite blank for what/where his suspicions are. He's voted for Stick at points, but why? Who do you suspect, Arinian? Who are you beginning to trust, and what are your reasons?

Similar issues for Orlok - he expressed suspicion of Alv, but that's just about it. It would generally help to hear more from him, but again, RL. Joe did do a long post, but same thing applies.

I don't think this is an exhaustive or a conclusive list. And I'm wary of having people focus on a list because this is dangerous - it means I'm dictating the terms of the debate and I shouldn't be allowed to do that. Rather, I'd encourage people to think about who you think hasn't been forthcoming with their views and suspicions and to press them for it. It's understandable that suspicions can shift - and really, they should, with more evidence. But forcing people to nail down where they stand at this point in time is helpful for us, especially in terms of tracing out connections between players, even illogical ones.

So. Enough with this cautionary pre-amble. My actual suspicions at the moment: Elenion (reasons suggested earlier, chiefly I'm having difficulty reconciling his willingness to go down on Ecth with his sudden caution and what seems like almost a way of attempting to shift the focus of the debate onto other people), and Alvron. Since I'm signing out and will probably miss rollover, I've decided to go with the person I'm most suspicious of, but I'd definitely like an answer from Elenion.

I'm not sure what to make of the Nyali - Arraenae - JUQ - Straw quartet. There are things that don't make sense to me about the people in this set, but I'm not absolutely certain if it's enough to elevate them into actual suspicions. Of all of them, I think I would be the most concerned about JUQ or Nyali.

Finally, since my desire to analyse has gone bye-bye with getting yelled at, I can safely say I'm just going to leave a big question mark on STINK >> See y'all on the other side.

Edited to add: JUQ and Nyali reasons already mentioned; Arraenae is just because she seems to be pushing really hard against someone for Day 1 stuff. But I'll look more closely again. Straw - I've also mentioned in past cycles.

2nd Edit to Add: Elodin's another one I'd put in the 'needs to say more' category.

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by Kasimir

[Arinian]

For now I gonna throw my vote on Stick. I know that It's not substantial and I can lose my free pass but right now I don't have enough time to re-read all what you posted today.

[Stick. she/her]

16 minutes ago, Arinian said:

For now I gonna throw my vote on Stick. I know that It's not substantial and I can lose my free pass but right now I don't have enough time to re-read all what you posted today.

I...sigh 

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

The begger felt like dying! 

There wasn't much going on in the manor anyway

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Magestar [I'd consider him a borderline case] asked us to ask him why he thinks Alv is suspicious. Well, okay, I'll bite: why is Alv suspicious, in your view?

THANK YOU.  Also, in the future, it might be a better idea to have mentioned me, because I almost missed this.  Not something I'd like to have happened.

Also, I think I explained why I missed C1, and I apologize for doing so.  I'll be much more active over the next week or so.

My suspicions right now mirror Kas' to some extent, however, I'm not really suspicious of Alv (This bit is going to be a bit of a joke.), and I'm still somewhat suspicious of Kynedath. I have an awful cold RN, so my brain isn't working at it's best, but I'm going to try and cover for that with more activity.

Also, I'd love to have the regular [Staff], if no one minds.  I don't think that's been taken yet?

I'll make a suspicions list in my next post, when I have a bit more time.  I have to take a quiz today, but the good news is it's the last bit of school I have before break.  So I'll be able to say more relevant stuff later.

---

Thendir walked up to Kjartan.  "It's quite simple, really."  He said, his wrinkled face creeping into a smile,  "Stub-tail bet against Innocent being an Elim, when Boris bet his wine bottles.  Innocent turned out not to be an Elim, and, that same night, Zelda, the other person who had bet against Boris, died!"  Thendir waved his staff about, pointing to people as they mentioned them.  "This means that Stub-tail got all the wine!  I propose that he knew that Innocent was innocent, and bet for that, knowing that he would get all the wine!  Then he killed Zelda, so as to be the only person with wine!"

Thendir paused momentarily, for dramatic effect.  "I propose we kill Stub-Tail, take the wine, and destroy it."  Thendir mimed smashing wine bottles with his staff.  "The wine is obviously an object of great evil."  He coughed.  "We should probably kill Boris while we're at it."

(I was bored.  Thendir's views in this matter do not reflect my own.)

Edited December 16, 2016 by Magestar

[Stick. she/her]

I feel like I should vote before I forget and go to sleep >> Can we get a vote tally?

Edit: Wait what the hell why am I getting lynched 

Stick(2): Sart, Arinian

Alv(1): Kas

I'm voting for Alv partly because I want to have a chance of survival but also because Alv is on my suspicion list, as stated earlier.

Byes 

Edited December 16, 2016 by I_am_a_Stick

[Alvron he/him]

Vote Tally:
Stink (2): Len, Alv
Stick (2): Sart, Ari
Len (0): Kas
Alv (2): Kas, Stick

Aww.  Kas voted on me.  Warm fuzzies. 

Well, I said I would be willing to be one of the tied votes but I was really hoping it wasn't going to be this round.  Stink.  Care to join the party?

BTW Mage, I only got one bottle of wine.  Len kept the other as Lopen was unable to claim his.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Alvron

[A Joe in the Bush]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm currently still doing a bit of reading, so I'll come back to this in a bit, but Joe's comment earlier struck me as being a bit odd, and I wanted to say something about it:

I'm guessing 4-5 Eliminators for this game, going either by the 1/5th rule, or Meta's square-root rule. I'm going to work with the assumption there are 5, because it's better to overestimate when figuring out how much breathing room we have, as compared to underestimating. To make it clear, this therefore assumes we began this game with 18 Villagers (23-5). At this point, we've lost 4 Villagers, putting us 14 : 5.

I want to say we have a decent amount of breathing room, because we have a buffer of about 8* people between us and the Eliminators. (I say 8 because I kind of disagree with Joe dismissing the ability of the Eliminators to put a quick hammer as a completely end-game strategy. It's all going to depend on the end-game dynamics. So. Here's a scenario that assumes we're 6 to the Eliminator 5. But the Village is not voting unanimously - our votes are scattered. The Eliminators put in a hammer, and now we're 5-5. They can effectively just tie us the next cycle, and go for the kill. Of course, this requires perfect activity from Eliminators and Villagers, which is unlikely. That could complicate things. Here's an example of how this could be complicated - say we're actually 6 - 5 or 7 - 5. But it's nearing the end of the cycle, and one or two inactives are likely to get killed by the filter. Cue quick hammer. So I really want to make two points about this: I think Joe is being too dismissive (by design?) - I think that as the game drags on, whichever of us is still around to see the late mid-game or the endgame has to be wary because the Village can't afford to be blindsided that way, if it should pass. We especially need to keep an eye on inactivity, and especially the sort that means someone is going to be filter-killed.)

So essentially, I think two things affect our buffer: inactives getting filter-killed, and how close we are to the critical point when the Eliminators could, in theory, force-vote their way to victory. Still, it's fair to say that we have a bit of breathing room, at this point. (Proper analysis later, I promise.)

I was typing out a refutal to your points, but while doing the math, i realized i was using a fallacious math. I was operating under the assumption that doing a hammer would only give them a 50% chance of winning, unless they were already tied. But, if they use the hammer to get down to a tie, then they have a 50% chance of winning each turn, but not a 50% chance of losing. So, I'm switching to Kas's Logic. We do need to worry about the hammer.

11 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

My current suspicions are Joe, Alv, Len, and kinda Rae and Stink too. Though I don't have solid reasons for suspecting any of them. They're all gut reads and guesses. Sue me.

Oh I will. My Lawyers will see your in court for Defamation of character!

3 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Vote Tally:
Stink (2): Len, Alv
Stick (2): Sart, Ari
Len (0): Kas
Alv (2): Kas, Stick

I'm once again in the position of not having any real suspicion of any of the three people up for lynch. However, I am going to vote for Alvron. Yesterday he voted on the person with the secondmost votes from the first day. He said he had a reason for this, but declined to say the reason. Now that he isn't doing that any more. I would like to know the reason. 

[Alvron he/him]

14 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I'm once again in the position of not having any real suspicion of any of the three people up for lynch. However, I am going to vote for Alvron. Yesterday he voted on the person with the secondmost votes from the first day. He said he had a reason for this, but declined to say the reason. Now that he isn't doing that any more. I would like to know the reason. 

Ah, but I did say so, just not in the way you expected.  I wanted to see if anyone was going to try and change the lynch target closer to the end of the cycle.  When no one did it made me think that the Elims were happy with the lynch target therefore most likely they were innocent.  I am doing the same thing this cycle but using a three way tie to see if anyone shifts the vote away from a tie.  Apart from those tied that is, I expect it from them.  It's easy enough to move away from a tie but doing so when an Elim is up for the chop makes it a little easier later down the line.

[Arrae]

Cycle One, Things That Seem Weird, Part One. Sorry if this seems like rambling, I typed this partially as I was eating lunch.

Ecth says that he's innocent and he feels like he should know what the Five Tenets are. 9:11 PM PST.

Len votes for Ecth, saying that Ecth was talking a lot and and his gut told him Ecth was an elim. Doesn't mention the Five Tenets. That seems like a rather quick amount of time to get a gut read based off of someone's activity, since the game only started 3 hours ago, but I suppose a gut read is a gut read. 11:20 PM.

Nyali votes on Assassin in RP and doesn't give a reason. Assassin hasn't posted at this point. Looks like a poke vote. 12:50 AM.

Kasimir puts a vote on Kynedath. Doesn't state a reason. Kynedath hasn't posted yet. Another poke vote?

Stick says that C1 lynches always hit villagers, and voting is fun since "you can vote on whoever you suspect without rising suspicions on yourself later on when that suspect turns out to be a villager bc 'it was just C1 and no-one had any solid reads'." There's also white text that says "I'm an elim. Jk. Lol." She poke votes Arinian for being online but not posting. I'm not sure what to make of this post. It sounds weird, but it also seems like Stick knew it sounded weird and put in a 

Hael says that items don't affect gameplay or show alignment. 3:17 AM.

Kynedath asks Kasimir if the vote is a poke vote, and also votes on Lopen. You all already know what I think of that, so I'm not going to repeat my analysis again. 6:40 AM.

Kasimir jokes and makes it obvious that it was a poke vote. He votes for Ecth for his mention of the Five Tenets. At this point Ecth hasn't said that he owns the Five Tenets item, so I suppose it could have looked like Ecth was confused about flavor text in his PM/in a doc. Kasimir seems familiar with Elder Scrolls. 6:48 AM.

Assassin RPs. 7:12 AM.

Len RPs and says that the Five Tenets are related to the Dark Brotherhood, the elim team. He asks where Ecth heard about the Five Tenets. 7:42 AM.

Kasimir says that he wants to lynch someone C1. He gives context about the game and the Five Tenets, which he says are "of the Dark Brotherhood." He mention's Hael's clarification and says that people have started with flavor items related to their character. He votes on Ecth (again) and asks where he has heard of the Five Tenets (again.) Ecth still hasn't said that he owns the Five Tenets item. Since Kas mentioned flavor items and Hael's clarification about items, he seems to have considered that Ecth might have the Five Tenets item. However, he seems to have missed the bit that says items don't show alignment. 8:15 AM.

Nyali quotes Kas and says that she thinks items are distributed only semi-randomly, so having a book on the Five Tenets is a little suspicious. She says this contrary to Hael's clarification that items "have no bearing on the player's alignment." Nyali's theory goes directly against the WOH (Word of Hael), so it is blatantly wrong. She does not vote on Ecth. 8:21 AM.

Kynedath agrees with Nyali (also going against the WOH). He retracts his vote on Lopen and puts it on Ecth. 8:59 AM.

Stick wonders if Ecth has Five Tenets-related items, and says that if he does, she doesn't know what to make of it. This brings the total number of people who have missed the WOH about items being unrelated to alignment to four. 9:13 AM.

Kynedath responds to Stick and says that that's the premise of the accusations against Ecth. 9:15 AM.

JUQ calls the entire thing a bandwagon, and votes on Arinian. As others have noted, this does not put the lynch at a tie, this actually breaks the tie and gives Arinian one more vote than Ecth. Interestingly enough, he doesn't challenge the reason of these votes. Another person who has missed the WOH, maybe. 10:08 AM.

EDIT: @Kasimir, I know I pushed hard against Kyn for "Day one stuff". That's how I get my suspicions. I look for wording or tones or arguments that feel off, and Kynedath's did, for reasons I outlined both C1 and C2. If I don't pick on those things, I'm rather useless as a player.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Arraenae

[Elenion he/him]

@Kasimir Sorry for the delay! We got walloped by a snowstorm and lost power for two hours, so no internet on my computer, and my tablet doesn't get data, only WiFi.

Boris walked in from a balcony, snow encrusting his hat. "I didn't even know it snowed here!

"Now onto business: I think you missed the points of what I said.

"First up, you point out that I have taken a complete reversal of tactics since we killed Innocent. You are exactly right. As I mentioned, we need a new strategy. I tried the don't-let-the-suspicious-ones-off strategy, and it failed. So now I've switched gears and are trying a new approach because we were 'getting nowhere' as I put it.

"Second, my strategy switch doesn't entail leaving my suspicions of JUQ, Kynedath, and Arinian behind. What I suggested is that we put them on the back burner as pretty suspicious until we find someone else whom the assassins didn't think we'd be on to. Now here's what I implied, but I guess I didn't specify it clearly enough: after we find a new target and confirm them by lynch, we'll then have info that will allow us to analyze the lynchee's days 1 and 2 voting habits, and should allow us to see whom the assassins were trying to defend. We then kill the assassin out of the suspicious trio, without killing the other two (I find it most likely that only one of them is an assassin)."

Boris paused to catch his breath,

"But I do like what's happened since I stepped outside. We're looking at more people now. And of them, I find Alvron the most suspicious (STINK, although I still have my eye on him). Why? Because the criminals I've hunted [elims I've played against] always need an 'out' if something goes wrong. The problem with Alv's arguments is that they give him a built-in 'out': chance. He could rig every vote to kill an innocent, and then justify it just by blaming bad luck. That's dangerous. Add in his claim that he's trying something new [new playstyle], and you get the perfect cover. I'm not convinced."

[Magestar he/him]

42 minutes ago, Alvron said:

BTW Mage, I only got one bottle of wine.  Len kept the other as Lopen was unable to claim his.

"Well Tarnation."  Thendir said.  He spat on the floor.  "Well, I still think there's something suspicious about you.  And that wine, which, obviously, is a poor year.  Nothing like that (mumbled date) vintage I had the other day."

---

I'm in the same position as Joe right now, but I think I'll vote for Stick.  A tie seems the best way to deal with this to me, seeing as I'm not particularly suspicious of any of these people.  I'm more suspicious of Stink and Alv than Stick, however, so that's where my vote is going.  I believe we now have a tie?

Also, for my suspicions list, I'm going to borrow this nice list of players that Burnt made.  Thank you, Burnt.  

1- Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) - Rather quiet.  Had not posted a whole lot of game relevant info, mostly skirting the edges of responding to people and contributing.  Elim Tactic to remain neutral and Unnoticed?  Who knows.
2- Stormblessed (Darkness Ascendant) 45%
3- Sartinia (Sart) 47%
4- Boris (Elenion) 59%
5- Thendir (Magestar) 50%
6- Arinian (Arinian) 44%
7- Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) 48%
8- Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) 55%
11- Stub-Tail (Alvron) Fairly normal read.  Would be surprised if Alv survives very long with his rep.  If he does, suspect shenanigans. 
12- Stick (I am a Stick) Neutral/Good Read.
13- Kipper (Kipper) Inactive.  Will probably die by filter.
14- Guilty (Elodin) Ummm.  Quiet?  Somewhat helpful.  I can't get a read on him.  I may have forgotten he was playing.
16- Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) Not seeing a reason to be suspicious of him.
17- Rhea (Nyali) Mildly suspicious because of voting patterns and going against WoH with her theory.  Basically what Rae said.  But wait, I'm suspicious of Rae to!
18- Jayjay (Arraenae) This is odd:

13 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Stick says that C1 lynches always hit villagers, and voting is fun since "you can vote on whoever you suspect without rising suspicions on yourself later on when that suspect turns out to be a villager bc 'it was just C1 and no-one had any solid reads'." There's also white text that says "I'm an elim. Jk. Lol." She poke votes Arinian for being online but not posting. I'm not sure what to make of this post. It sounds weird, but it also seems like Stick knew it sounded weird and put in a 

It just cuts off.  What's that?  Did you copy and paste this from a  Doc, or just forget to type it in?  Idk.  Plus, I've been getting a bad gut read on Rae.  Something about her tone.  Been fairly active.
20- Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) Seems to be acting like normal Burnt.  Can't say a lot about her.
21- Kjartan & Mus (Kasimir) Meh.  Again, I'll be surprised if he survives a lot longer, considering how much he's been contributing.  If he survives much longer, I say we lynch him.
22- John (JUQ) Quiet.  Idk.  Plus, I'm getting tired of making viable suspicions by the 22nd player.
23- Stink - Whatever.   Maybe evil.  Idk.  Idc.

Well that's about it.   I'm tired now.  Bai.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Magestar

[Arrae]

Oh. Whoops. This is why you don't type while eating lunch.  I meant to say that it sounds weird and Stick knew it sounded weird so she put in some joke whitetext to defuse the weirdness of it. Also, I've been on finals schedule for the past few days, which contrary to most people, actually gives me more time to play SE. The last finals was yesterday, so now I'm completely free of school.

[Magestar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

The last finals was yesterday, so now I'm completely free of school.

Same.  I feel so... Relaxed.  It's so weird.  

13 minutes ago, Elenion said:

"But I do like what's happened since I stepped outside. We're looking at more people now. And of them, I find Alvron the most suspicious (STINK, although I still have my eye on him). Why? Because the criminals I've hunted [elims I've played against] always need an 'out' if something goes wrong. The problem with Alv's arguments is that they give him a built-in 'out': chance. He could rig every vote to kill an innocent, and then justify it just by blaming bad luck. That's dangerous. Add in his claim that he's trying something new [new playstyle], and you get the perfect cover. I'm not convinced."

Len, if Alv ends up being innocent, I'm going to be very suspicious of you.  I really don't mind letting the RNG decide, although I wish there were better options.

I do see what you're saying about Alv, though, and I don't think we should discount him.  So I'm not going to argue against killing Alv, because I think it will give us a lot of info.  But you're on thin ice, Len.

[STINK he/him]

You don't mind letting the RNG decide, because then you can just handwave any innocent's death that you were involved in by saying 'roll of the dice'?

[Arrae]

Also, I can't see the relation between a sentence ending randomly and having that written in a doc. When elims copy and paste stuff out of docs, like what Aman always used to do, usually they have people read over it. I'm pretty sure if I was an elim, they'd point out that the Stick section cuts off randomly. I don't copy and paste things in short paragraphs, I usually transport it all in one chunk, which means that stuff in the middle will be transported, and the only places I can lose material is at the very beginning or the end, if I don't highlight everything. Maybe you copy and paste things from docs in little paragraphs, but I don't. It won't result in a random sentence being cut off in the middle of a wall of text.

[Magestar he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

You don't mind letting the RNG decide, because then you can just handwave any innocent's death that you were involved in by saying 'roll of the dice'?

More because I don't really find any of the people up for lynch super suspicious.  Good try though.

1 minute ago, Arraenae said:

Also, I can't see the relation between a sentence ending randomly and having that written in a doc. When elims copy and paste stuff out of docs, like what Aman always used to do, usually they have people read over it. I'm pretty sure if I was an elim, they'd point out that the Stick section cuts off randomly. I don't copy and paste things in short paragraphs, I usually transport it all in one chunk, which means that stuff in the middle will be transported, and the only places I can lose material is at the very beginning or the end, if I don't highlight everything. Maybe you copy and paste things from docs in little paragraphs, but I don't. It won't result in a random sentence being cut off in the middle of a wall of text.

It was a bit of a shot in the dark.  It's more likely that you'd forget to finish a sentence when writing in a Doc, from my experience, but I don't really thing it's very viable.  I think the way you reacted to that is more interesting that the fact that you didn't finish the sentence.  Neither thing really definitely makes you look suspicious, though.

[Nyali she/her]

32 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Nyali quotes Kas and says that she thinks items are distributed only semi-randomly, so having a book on the Five Tenets is a little suspicious. She says this contrary to Hael's clarification that items "have no bearing on the player's alignment." Nyali's theory goes directly against the WOH (Word of Hael), so it is blatantly wrong. She does not vote on Ecth. 8:21 AM.

You missed the part where I did vote, then someone pointed out my mistake, and I retracted. Sorry I missed a rule clarification.

 

I'm going to put a vote on Elenion. I don't know why no one else is voting for him - people keep calling him the most suspicious player. His reasoning on Ecthelion might have been influenced by the fact that they are brothers and siblings like to lynch each other (apparently), but it just reads as suspicious to me.

[STINK he/him]

1 minute ago, Magestar said:

More because I don't really find any of the people up for lynch super suspicious.  Good try though.

Okay, so you find none of the people in the lynch super suspicious. Do you:

(A) Suggest another person to lynch that you find suspicious.

(B) Go 'Eh who cares' and let it go to chance.

Don't know about you, but one certainly looks more evil than the other. 

Also it's not a 'try' at whatever you think I'm doing, more I just don't understand at all why anyone would go 'let's just leave it up to chance'. 

[Arrae]

4 minutes ago, Magestar said:

More because I don't really find any of the people up for lynch super suspicious.  Good try though.

It was a bit of a shot in the dark.  It's more likely that you'd forget to finish a sentence when writing in a Doc, from my experience, but I don't really thing it's very viable.  I think the way you reacted to that is more interesting that the fact that you didn't finish the sentence.  Neither thing really definitely makes you look suspicious, though.

Yep. Hardball, Part II, Chapter 7: "Leave no shot unanswered." Part of the new playstyle I'm trying. Basically says, when people say bad things about you, respond as quickly as possible. Has a fun anecdote about how not responding to George Bush's mudslinging did bad things to Michael Dukakis's political career.