Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[Magestar he/him]

-sigh-  With 11 minutes left, I think it'd probably be wise for me to move my vote to Lopen.  Len.  Lopen, I'll have you know I'm not terribly suspicious of you, but we can't have another no-lynch, so I'm going to prevent any vote manipulators from causing one.  Sorry about this.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Magestar

[Seonid he/him]

Five minutes remaining.

[Seonid he/him]

The cycle is over!

[Seonid he/him]

LG29: Night Four - Unleashed Fears

As dawn broke, the worldhoppers of Sel woke to a world much less secure than the one they had gone to sleep in. Another Shard was dead, Shattered by the power of the Lord of Hate.

But this time, the outlet of their fears was not protected. This time, blood would calm their fears. There was, after all, nothing quite like killing someone you were afraid of to make you not afraid of them further.

The howling mob formed in the streets of Arelon, where Kaloo lived. He was well-known to be a late sleeper, and today was no different. In that respect, at least. Kaloo was also a deep sleeper, so the first inkling he had of anything being wrong was when his front door was battered down. Groggy and bleary eyed, he arose weakly, trying to focus on his surroundings as shadowy forms burst into his bedroom and dragged him from his bed.

He died before waking up enough to realize what was happening.


Kaloo (TheMightyLopen) has been lynched! Their role and alignment will be revealed when they pass from the Cognitive Realm.

Vote Count:
Assassin (1): Bard
Lopen (6): Assassin, Mage, Alvron, DroughtBringer, Arinian, Len
Mage (4): Lopen, Stick, Araris, Doc
Len (1): Kasimir


Night 4 has begun, and will end in a little under 26 hours.

 

Player List:
1. Assassin in Burgundy - First of the Game
2. Master Elodin - Second of the Signups
3. Jondesu - Quintus 17th Shard Worldhopper
4. AliasSheep - Kelen Taldar
5. Darkness Ascendant - Kaldain Selblessed
6. A Joe in the Bush - Jack Tormander Returned Agent of Autonomy!
7. Doc12 - Silence
8. Kynedath - Desten Kyde
9. TheMightyLopen - Kaloo
10. Straw - Malum Farcimen
11. Young Bard - Serol
12. Magestar - Magestar
13. Alvron - Lorna
14. Dalinar Kholin - Sanya
15. Harambe - PUNisher
16. I_am_a_Stick - Stic
17. RubiksCube - cubefright archive
18. DroughtBringer - Ralar
19. Araris Valerian - Aralis
20. Arinian - Arinian
21. Zephrer - Tardeick
22. Conquestor - Farallen Oniz Vessel of Preservation!
23. Sart - Sam Trudite
24. Aonar Faileas - Nilan Izenry
25. Elenion - emissary of Mandos
26. Kasimir - Tenth of the Dusk

Edited January 2, 2017 by Alvron

[Seonid he/him]

Note: A mistake was made in tallying the votes! It has now been corrected!

[Magestar he/him]

Oh, look, someone with a vote manipulation wants me dead.

What else is new.

[Seonid he/him]

More vote mistakes fixed - don't worry, they didn't affect the lynch!

[Elenion he/him]

Lol Mage.  Someone with manip really wants me alive, but neither of those moves were mine. Were I not myself I would be pretty suspicious of myself right now.  Let's see; someone moved Doc's vote to Mage, and Kas' vote to a no-vote.

Endowment, please DO NOT return Lopen. We need to see if I was right and he was a Vessel of Odium, but we can't do that if he is returned.

[Elenion he/him]

My tablet apparently will not edit previous posts. Lovely.

Ninja'd with Kas' vote appearing. I guess that's only 1 manip then, but it's still concerning. Anyone want to claim it? Stick and Araris are most likely to have done it.

 

[Stick. she/her]

Why isn't Harambe's alignment and stuff revealed?

32 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I guess that's only 1 manip then, but it's still concerning. Anyone want to claim it? Stick and Araris are most likely to have done it.

Aye, if I had to manipulate someone's vote, I'd change a vote that would actually have an effect to the lynch :-P I don't know why anyone would change it the way it is.

got wrapped up in IRL stuff and didn't get the time to respond to Mage, plus the two-hour early thing...

As I mentioned earlier, I didn't have time to read all those posts last turn so I just looked at the vote tally and decided to vote on one of the three majors  I chose Mage bc I found him the most suspicious based on previous cycles compared to Len and Lopen. Now that I read the posts made last cycle, I actually see better options :/ but eh

[Magestar he/him]

Just now, I_am_a_Stick said:

As I mentioned earlier, I didn't have time to read all those posts last turn so I just looked at the vote tally and decided to vote on one of the three majors  I chose Mage bc I found him the most suspicious based on previous cycles compared to Len and Lopen. Now that I read the posts made last cycle, I actually see better options :/ but eh

TL;DR:  Looking back, it might have not have been the greatest idea to vote on Mage. I'm choosing to interpret this that way.  Don't judge me.

Thanks.  I needed to hear someone say that, finally.  

[Stick. she/her]

10 minutes ago, Magestar said:

TL;DR:  Looking back, it might have not have been the greatest idea to vote on Mage. I'm choosing to interpret this that way.  Don't judge me.

Thanks.  I needed to hear someone say that, finally.  

I sense white text 

[Kasimir he/him]

It's interesting we spent the past cycle focusing on Odium candidates, and it's something that definitely escalated my suspicion of those driving the Odium hunt. Losing Devotion hurt, but it's almost as if we're happily turning this game into Everyone versus Odium, and it isn't. Let's look at the bigger picture again: Batman Hoid can't kill. Team Hoid does not have a Faction kill. Since we're several Shards down at the moment, Team Hoid only has two options: get Cultivation to not be Shattered and to un-Shatter everyone and catch 'em all, or outnumber every other Faction combined.

Let me spell this out again, carefully.

1. If Team Hoid is focusing on collecting all the Shards, they don't need to worry about the kills. Kills will be handy, but all they need to do is to outlast the lynches and get Shards lynched, to force Shards to circulate, hopefully passing to a member of Team Hoid. (This makes me suspicious of the information Alv is apparently privy to, even if the rest of us aren't.) Since some Shards are shattered, Team Hoid will likely be angling to: A. protect Cultivation, and/or B. take control of Cultivation, in order to un-Shatter the Shards and re-acquire them. Their official win con is to acquire all the ten Shards - I'm not sure what this means for Shshsh [=the secret spoilery Shard] But let's set that issue aside for the time being. This goal would mean that Team Hoid currently needs to remove Odium, in order to collect their Shard. We don't necessarily need to. 

There are obvious variations: Team Hoid could be angling for positions of trust, as is common with conversion Factions. But what this means that if Cultivation is Shattered, Team Hoid is automatically forced to take on the tougher victory condition - see: 2.

2. If Team Hoid is working towards their alternate win condition, they've got a tough slog ahead. Once there is no means of patching together the Shards, they're going to have to outnumber every other Faction combined. This includes Odium, Survival, and Autonomy, and generates an obvious and strong clash with Autonomy since: A. Autonomy cannot convert Hoid, and B. Autonomy's win condition is to convert every living player, which by definition implies that Autonomy is going to be a big Faction to swamp, and Team Hoid doesn't even have a kill. This, I think, would put Team Hoid closer to a standard Eliminator team, since they have to kill to whittle down our numbers, and otherwise, force mislynches and so on. This means their first priority would be to acquire a kill ability, whether in the form of Ruin, a conversion-alliance with Team Odium, or Voidbringers being refuelled by Endowment. Without a kill ability, their only hope would be: A. to force us to mis-kill, B. hope Odium causes mass carnage, C. force mislynches, whether through vote manipulation or otherwise.

I don't quite know which track Team Hoid will go for, and it's definitely a possibility Team Hoid will try to set themselves up for both cases, which means that acquiring Ruin will be top on their list. (Let's hope Ruin or Honor are not already in their hands, anyway, since Team Hoid can convert Shards.)

Why I think this matters: we don't want to miss the forest for the trees. We want to make sense of what we should be looking out for in daily lynch/discussion/analysis, and it's not immediately obvious from their win con that Team Hoid will be playing straightforwardly like a standard Eliminator team, meaning our analysis should reflect/make sense of that. Similarly, we don't want to be focusing on Odium so much that we forget about Team Hoid and allow them to take advantage of that - it will be costly.

Finally: since I likely* have no more charges left, meaning I am pretty much useless at this point - I scanned Araris. Unless I've made a horrid mistake somewhere, he's not Odium.

[Aonar he/him]

Are you claiming Trapper then Kas? I don't believe any other role can say with absolute certainty that a player cannot be Odium.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Aonar Faileas said:

Are you claiming Trapper then Kas? I don't believe any other role can say with absolute certainty that a player cannot be Odium.

Sadly, although Tenth of the Dusk is indeed a trapper, he was not endowed with that role

[Magestar he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Sadly, although Tenth of the Dusk is indeed a trapper, he was not endowed with that role

Actually, as I'm also out of charges, I can say that a Mistborn can confirm someone is not Odium.  Cultivation, I would not mind a refill.  I targeted Alv N2, and he did not use any kill actions.  But Odium did use a kill.  So, I can be reasonably confidant that Alv is not Odium, I think.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Magestar said:

Actually, as I'm also out of charges, I can say that a Mistborn can confirm someone is not Odium.  Cultivation, I would not mind a refill.  I targeted Alv N2, and he did not use any kill actions.  But Odium did use a kill.  So, I can be reasonably confidant that Alv is not Odium, I think.

Didn't you get roleblocked though? Or was that on a different night?

Edit: Cultivation, if you want to give me a refill, hit someone else first. I won't be good for anything until Night 5, so that's an absurd amount of downtime.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Kasimir

[Aonar he/him]

8 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Actually, as I'm also out of charges, I can say that a Mistborn can confirm someone is not Odium.  Cultivation, I would not mind a refill.  I targeted Alv N2, and he did not use any kill actions.  But Odium did use a kill.  So, I can be reasonably confidant that Alv is not Odium, I think.

Right, that's fair then. He specifically said scan, though, and Awakener could be subverted with the Mastrell screen, or by something as simple as passing the Shard between the Vessel and the Champion. 

And echoing what Kas said, didn't you claim to be roleblocked that night?

[Magestar he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Didn't you get roleblocked though? Or was that on a different night?

I was role blocked on N2, and targeted Alv on N3.  Typo, sorry.

Technically, I did also target Alv on N2, but I was role blocked.  So I tried again N3.   Sorry Alv.  I was a little bit worried you had a kill role.  

That's basically my action history.

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Right, that's fair then. He specifically said scan, though, and Awakener could be subverted with the Mastrell screen, or by something as simple as passing the Shard between the Vessel and the Champion. 

And echoing what Kas said, didn't you claim to be roleblocked that night?

Well, technically it's not really a scan and I've probably McGuyvered the role. I'm a Forger - or was, since I now have Araris's role (or lack thereof) and Araris is a Forger. He could use it, of course, in which case I have no idea if I'm going to be a Forger again on Night 5, or if we have temporarily created more Forgers. The new Forger wouldn't be able to do anything though since Araris using my remaining stamp would mean whoever it is would be a Forger with no stamps  

Specifically, I checked in with Seonid since I didn't want to have wasted a 'scan' - Forgery cannot give me the abilities of a Shard (obviously, this was in the rules), but I would receive the base role of 'Vessel of X', with X being the Shard in question. In other words, if Araris were Odium, I would expect to receive the role 'Vessel of Odium'. Even if Araris were Odium and he had passed the Shard to his Champion, recall that ex-Shards still retain the base role of Vessel - this doesn't change even if you no longer hold the Shard. Suffice to say that I did not receive the role 'Vessel of Odium', meaning that Araris has never held that Shard.

Unless I've missed something out, of course.

Note: other Forgers out there, if you don't have anything better to do, consider doing a role-swap in order to 'scan' for Odium. I'm not sure it's foolproof (I haven't thought in great detail about it), but it might beat sitting around, wondering what to do with those stamps...

Edited January 2, 2017 by Kasimir
Language

[Elenion he/him]

The reason that Odium is such a big threat in my mind is that Odium will blow you to smithereens while Auto and Hoid will just invite you into their circle, and because so far Odium has been making a killing with those shards (pun intended), while I doubt that Hoid has had as much success.

I assume that if a Shard is regenerated, that will be announced in-thread. If so, then we can tell that the Shard is not having too much success with Option 1. They either lack Cult, the shattered shards, or both. As for their alternate win con, I think that Hoid has the advantage over Auto in that Auto can't convert Shards, so Auto will probably waste a few conversions. Still, I think that overall Auto should be able to keep Hoid mostly in check from a faction size standpoint.

So while Auto has no motivation to kill and Hoid is apparently having troubles, Odium is going Hate mode. Also, I'd rather be converted than killed, but that's just me.

[Alvron he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

This makes me suspicious of the information Alv is apparently privy to, even if the rest of us aren't.

It's not much information.  In our world PM Lopen claimed to have a role from a certain planet. FotS to be precise.  I however had my doubts and used my ability to test his claim.  It came back different than what he claimed.  In fact he turned out to be a Shard.  From Roshar.  Now there are three Shards from Roshar, Honour, Cultivation and Odium.  Two of which would be good to be removed from game like I said.  Those being Odium and Culty.  After my post in thread, Lopen and I got to talking and he claimed he was Odium.  We talked for a while and decided that he could help us.  I was going to remove my vote from him close to rollover but sadly the new time slipped by me and by the time I did get on, there were plenty of votes already on Lopen.

I am very sorry you got lynched Lopen.  And I greatly regret the role I played in it as I love working with you and really hope to do so again in future games.

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

I was role blocked on N2, and targeted Alv on N3.  Typo, sorry.

Technically, I did also target Alv on N2, but I was role blocked.  So I tried again N3.   Sorry Alv.  I was a little bit worried you had a kill role.  

No worries Mage.  I'd be worried about me too.    After all, I have my rep for a reason.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Alvron
replaced also with already

[Sart he/him]

What ability are you referring to Alvron?

[Alvron he/him]

My role of course.

[Magestar he/him]

Example A;  Vague Curiosity.

11 minutes ago, Sart said:

What ability are you referring to, Alvron?

Example B; Vague Vagueness.

6 minutes ago, Alvron said:

My role, of course.

You guys are so effective.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Magestar