Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

There goes the lynch...

And in another aspect, we could lynch Rae again, but then we get back into the "Dalinar Cycle", and that would get messy. So now suspicions are still high for Rae, I don't think Nyali is out of the park yet, and I still think we should be better spending our lynches on those suspicious non voters!

[Conquestor he/him]

Hey guys, this is a crazy theory, but what if all the spiked are mistborn? It would make sense, at least in the book, because spiked were Inquisitors who had every allomantic power. I'm still suspicious of Jondesu and he had survived being attacked, and if he had soothed someone, it would prove my theory.

"All the power belongs to those that don't know how to use it." "If I could just place this spiked in the right spot." Mr. Hoid was talking to himself in a secret, underground room. He was about to place a steel spike in his heart. "Why am I doing this?" "Do I really want to take that chance?" No, he really didn't, so, he sat up and put the spike back in the blood container. He wasn't about to let Ruin in his mind for the sake of research! But, he realized it didn't matter anyway, everyone is going to be killed, by . . .

[little wilson she/her]

@Elenion I'd put the odds of that D1 soothe being your brother at about 99.99%.

@Conquestor There's a difference between all Spiked being Mistborn and all Mistborn being Spiked. The first means that the village could have Mistborn of our own. The second means that we don't.

I'm...not sure the evidence supports all the Mistborn being Spiked. It's possible all the Spiked could be Mistborn, however. But if all the Mistborn were Spiked, the village would need to have a lot of Mistings, and while that's possible, Kipper was a Regular and I have reason to believe he's not the only one. I'm not even going to begin to guess how many Regulars there are, but even just 3-4 puts the village at a power disadvantage if all the Mistborn are Spiked.

Plus, what kind of Mistings does the village have then? We know there are no Tineyes. I don't see much evidence of there being a slew of vote manipulation (my gut is saying that the vote manipulation we've seen is the work of many Mistborn drawing zinc/brass, and I'd wager that not all of those Mistborn are Spiked). I don't see much evidence for seekers/smokers, though admittedly, there hasn't been much time for that, and it's hard to know for sure about either of those with PMs being down. So Thugs/Lurchers. Which...could actually be a decent counter to a full team of Mistborn, possibly.

My gut still says that some of the Mistborn are not Spiked. That could just stem from a fear of facing a full team of Mistborn, but even still. I think at the very least, the "Coinshot" who attacked Dalinar was village and I don't think they were a Coinshot. I think they were a Mistborn who drew Steel that night. After all, if they were a Coinshot, what would it have hurt to attack Dalinar again the next night? Sure, he probably would've been protected (unless that was a Mistborn who drew iron the previous night), but given that they didn't attack anyone instead, would it really have mattered? No. I think they didn't attack Dalinar again because they couldn't, because they weren't actually a Coinshot. Which means, if that's right, that the village has at least one Mistborn of our own.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, I didn't get around to contributing last cycle, but all I really would have had time for was to place a vote, and it would have gone on Rae, who I had voiced my suspicion of several times before. I suppose it isn't too big of a deal that I didn't get that vote in, since Rae was lynched anyways.

If all the spiked are mistborn, and there were at least 5 of them from the start, then we should have had Tin more cycles than we have. And that assumes no village mistborn. Each mistborn will have had around a 50% chance to pull Tin by now. So it is unlikely that there are more than 3-4 total mistborn in the game.

[Silverblade5 he/him]

Ryth got mentioned in the write up? And it wasn't for Ryth's death? Ryth is shocked! Shocked!

[manukos he/him]

@Conquestor interesting thought , i would realy , reaaaly hope that it isn't the case . 
btw do we have an estimation on how many elims we have left 

i am also curious to see what the spiked will do in regard to Rae. also  any ideas for next day's lynch?

 

[Madagascar]

Another day, another night, another shycle of endlessh madnessh an' deshpair. Matilda ish too old for thish... shycle of endlessh madnessh an' deshpair. Why doesh thish happen to every village I go to? Werewolvesh, robotsh, zombiesh, shpiked. Am I curshed or something? I jusht wantsh shume peashe, an' to find my parentsh. I'm shure they're around here shumewhere.

And to drink.

Moshtly to drink.

[Silverblade5 he/him]

Random idea that Ryth only just thought of: What if there are no mistings in the game, and everyone who's not a regular is a Mistborn? Is there anyone who would be willing to step forward and cite themselves using the same power consecutively to disprove this theory?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Perhaps the greatest faculty our minds possess is the ability to cope with pain. Classic thinking teaches us of the four doors of the mind, which everyone moves through according to their need.

First is the door of sleep. Sleep offers us a retreat from the world and all its pain. Sleep marks passing time, giving us distance from the things that have hurt us. When a person is wounded they will often fall unconscious. Similarly, someone who hears traumatic news will often swoon or faint. This is the mind's way of protecting itself from pain by stepping through the first door.

 

Felix woke up in the darkness. What... What was going on?

He had a hazy memory of a mob of townspeople, then, in the confusion, a blow to the back of the head.

Ugh... Survivor help this rusting town.

Felix rolled over. He was in a bed, and outside ash falling... His room in the manor. A small scrap of paper on the table next to him read "We apologize for the inconvenience."

Huh. Felix sat there for a few minutes trying to make sense of things. Then he eventually gave up. He needed to know what was going on with the town.

He left his room, closing the door carefully behind him, and went down the stairs to meet the townspeople.

"I have returned."

 

11 hours ago, Magestar said:

Carmichael looked down at his notes.  Then he looked up at Nicki, who was now escaping over the roofs.  Then he looked back at his noted.  His eyes narrowed.  He had been so certain.   

"You've got to be kidding me." He said, throwing his book down.  "I spent all this time-"

Carmichael started stomping on the book.  He just -stomp- couldn't -stomp- believe -stomp- that Nicki -stomp- had Escaped! -kick-

Carmichael sighed.  He'd probably lose money over this.  He was pretty sure he had bet with someone about Nicki...  He couldn't remember.

Ok.  Well, that basically expresses my feelings.  I don't really know what else to do.  I'd suggest the Coinshot target someone tonight, but after Dalinar, I don't think we should waste any more lynches on Rae just yet.  To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the Elims are made up of Coinshots and Thugs, if it does turn out that there aren't any roleless.  -sigh-

Carmichael picked up the book, and looked at it one more time.  Then he threw it over his shoulder.  He was going to get to the bottom of this.

Later, I hope I'll have time to respond to El.  I really don't right now, and like I said earlier, my family is going snowboarding all week.  I should have some time later though.

What happened to those quote boxes?  

 

10 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

There goes the lynch...

And in another aspect, we could lynch Rae again, but then we get back into the "Dalinar Cycle", and that would get messy. So now suspicions are still high for Rae, I don't think Nyali is out of the park yet, and I still think we should be better spending our lynches on those suspicious non voters!

 

Okay... So, can I just say that I find this line of reasoning to be unwise and possibly suspect?

I mean, I wasn't there when Rae claimed pewter, nor have I dug up that post in the countless pages I was gone. Maybe there's something I am missing here. Actually, there probably is (if so, please disregard the rant below; I will catch up on the last day's events eventually).

But seriously? You don't want to waste lynches... I totally get that. But the Dalinar lynch wasn't a waste! Yeah, it was absurdly hard to kill him, but it was still absolutely the right thing to do. If we think someone is an elim, but we think it will take more than one cycle to kill them... That's a terrible reason not to get started. If I knew from the start that Dalinar was an elim but could survive that many attacks... I still would have tried to get him lynched. Rust and ruin people, what else are we going to do in a game but kill someone we think is an elim? We would have had to use up lynches to kill Dalinar somewhere down the line anyway...

 

At the same time. Not necessarily a reason to go after Rae at night. If Rae really is an elim, then the elim lurcher will probably choose to protect them tonight. Better to do it by votes.

 

Actually, more on that. General strategy for village coinshots: kill people who you suspect, but who you do not think everyone suspects. If it is obvious that everyone wants an individual dead, and you attack them... If they are an elim, they will be lurched, and if they are innocent, they won't be lurched. Try not to target anyone who is too obvious. But also don't random kill. Kill someone who you legitimately find suspicious but who is not the most obvious coinshot target out there.

 

Also, one other remark. There is a lot of pewter in this game. Wow.

And while I wouldn't be surprised if the elims had one other mistborn and maybe the town had one too, I doubt the elims have all mistborn. As people have already brought up, if all the elims were mistborn, there would be a lot more tin in this game.

 

2 minutes ago, Silverblade5 said:

Random idea that Ryth only just thought of: What if there are no mistings in the game, and everyone who's not a regular is a Mistborn? Is there anyone who would be willing to step forward and cite themselves using the same power consecutively to disprove this theory?

This implies that you are either a mistborn or roleless. There doesn't seem to be very much motivation to lie about that, either.

Anyways, when Ecthelion died he was a confirmed soother, so I'm afraid the theory is invalid. No need for anyone to reveal roles.

Actually, maybe this is a perfectly innocent wondering, but the paranoid side of me wonders if this is just bait to get people to reveal their roles.

[Silverblade5 he/him]

@Drake Marshall

Thank you for that. Ryth completely forgot about that. Carry on as normal then. Ryth agrees with your previous point, and is starting to suspect anyone who was against a lynch for that reason. Because Nyail was the most common alternate offered by people using this line of though, she is starting to look less suspicious in Ryth's eyes.

[Elenion he/him]

Ryth, what makes Nyali less suspicious now? I found her more suspicious than Rae yesterday, and now that Rae is confirmed to have Pewter like she claimed I'm even more suspicious of Nyali.

Wilson, I doubt that all of those manips are due to Mistborn. We're averaging one manip per cycle, and running the probabilities we'd need at least 8 Mistborn in the game to consistently equal that.

@little wilson @Silverblade5

[Seonid he/him]

 Well, we know that Rae wasn't lying about having pewter. That's something.

Still think Nyali is more likely to be evil, but truth be told, I'm not very suspicious there either.

The most suspicious person in my eyes at the moment is Wonko.

Just a note, Stick's vote was apparently messed with (I haven't checked myself from last cycle, and am relying on information from up -  thread). There are (at least?) four possible options here. Stick could have been Soothed. One of the no - votes could have Rioted Stick's vote to a no - vote. Or, Stick could be a Rioter that hit a Smoked target. Fourth, it is possible that Stick was hit by 2 different Rioters and that the vote was cancelled as a result.

The first possibility is the most likely one, but the others are not out of the realm of possibility.

Unfortunately, the answer to this question does not give us insight into alignment yet.

Parting thoughts on the Coinshot. Ok beginning to strongly believe that the Coinshot (of which there is likely one - unless we want to believe that one or more Mistborn pulled steel for three consecutive nights - not impossible, but certainly not likely compared to the alternative) is Spiked, and is playing the "I'm trying to act like a villager" game.

I'm not certain of it, but I've lost a game because I was certain that the eliminators didn't have another kill role (you know what I'm taking about @OrlokTsubodai), and I'd rather not dismiss my suspicions out of hand. If Lopen wasn't the Lurcher who protected Wilson, then there is at least one more. And if it wasn't the Spiked Lurcher who protected Wilson (either because of WGG or otherwise) then we have at least 3 of them. That's enough to make me think there could be a second kill on the eliminator team.

[Silverblade5 he/him]

21 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Ryth, what makes Nyali less suspicious now? I found her more suspicious than Rae yesterday, and now that Rae is confirmed to have Pewter like she claimed I'm even more suspicious of Nyali.

Wilson, I doubt that all of those manips are due to Mistborn. We're averaging one manip per cycle, and running the probabilities we'd need at least 8 Mistborn in the game to consistently equal that.

@little wilson @Silverblade5

People begin suspecting Rae do to being a vocal defender of Dalinar and option her for a lynch.
Rae claims thug.
People start saying that because she'll take multiple hits to kill, she shouldn't be lynched, optioning  Nyail as an alternate

These people are conveniently forgetting that an evil person who takes multiple hits to kill is still a person that needs to die. The basic reasoning that Ryth is seeing behind this is 'because this thing will take extra time and effort, it is not a thing worth doing'. They are then shifting the focus to Nyail, who, as far as we know, is a much easier kill. 'Because this thing is easier to do, it is the thing most worth doing'. Interestingly enough, Ryth believes Rae was using similar reasoning during one of her defenses of Dalinar. What Ryth's theory is is that, assuming Rae was evil, teammates were trying to shift focus off of Rae, and onto another convenient target, Nyail. Ryth is now asking for the help of you, the village, in proving or disproving this theory.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Silverblade5

[Elenion he/him]

@Silverblade5 Ryth, we could have that by lynching Nyali instead of Rae. That way, if Nyali turns out evil, we could have avoided wasting a lynch on Rae's pewter.

Unrelated, do you guys think that using Herwynbe's book I could Spike some of Dalinar's appearance? He had some really nice forearms.

[Jondesu he/him]

Remart actually laughed at Ryth's silly idea. "I could prove I'm just a Thug without pewter left in me, but all that would do is get me dead. It's not something I can repeat, exactly. I'll swear by The Lord Ruler that I'm no Mistborn, though."

He took a gulp of ale and stomped his peg.

"Told ya'll not to waste your time chasing down Nicki, too. Even if she's one of them spiked, she knew you were coming for her and told you she'd escape. Now you all just look like fools, standing there with your jaws gaping. Me, I'm just gonna take another slice of ham and go to bed. Ain't nothing better to do here."

Edited January 23, 2017 by Jondesu

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Silverblade5 said:

Random idea that Ryth only just thought of: What if there are no mistings in the game, and everyone who's not a regular is a Mistborn? Is there anyone who would be willing to step forward and cite themselves using the same power consecutively to disprove this theory?

Uh, Ecth and Straw were village not-Mistborns. Lopen was a Lurcher. So there are confirmed village Mistings in this game.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Elenion, we actually only need ~4 mistborn for that, since there are 2 vote manip powers.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Well, for everyone saying that just because Rae survived the first lynch on her is no reason not to go through with it, I never disagreed with that statement. I simply said it would be messy. Messy things are messy, and messes are not good. I am supportive of what Seonid said about Wonko. I've had my eye on him for awhile. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

21 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Remart actually laughed at Ryth's silly idea. "I could prove I'm just a Thug without pewter left in me, but all that would do is get me dead. It's not something I can repeat, exactly. I'll swear by The Lord Ruler that I'm no Mistborn, though."

He took a gulp of ale and stomped his peg.

"Told ya'll not to waste your time chasing down Nicki, too. Even if she's one of them spiked, she knew you were coming for her and told you she'd escape. Now you all just look like fools, standing there with your jaws gaping. Me, I'm just gonna take another slice of ham and go to bed. Ain't nothing better to do here."

I appreciate the RP, but considering you didn't make any kind of OOC comments below it like I did when I defended Dalinar only for the sake of RP... I assume you actually mean this.

And, pardon me, but I have a hard time seeing any sense to this argument.

If it takes two kills to kill an eliminator, why on earth is that a reason to never use the requisite two cycles to kill them?

It almost feels like you are trying to draw out a coinshot to attack you.

 

In my opinion, the only argument to not lynch Rae that makes sense is Elenion's:

48 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@Silverblade5 Ryth, we could have that by lynching Nyali instead of Rae. That way, if Nyali turns out evil, we could have avoided wasting a lynch on Rae's pewter.

And, as you may have noticed, this argument, while insightful, no longer applies to our current situation. We already wasted a lynch on Rae. At this point, there is no reason not to follow through (But don't do that with a coinshot attack, since it would be wasted due to the fact that elims probably have a lurcher).

[Jondesu he/him]

I probably should have made myself more clear with some OOG text, yeah. I do think it was a waste, but that's because I'm convinced she's not even Spiked, and we've now had the discussion run away from us without a lot of variety for another day, largely to me because people weren't actually thinking things through. Most of the arguments I saw were illogical, like what I pointed out in Nyali's, and I definitely think we should have lynched Nyali instead. Now, I think she's likely a good target for the next lynch, since I don't think that simply surviving a lynch makes Rae guiltier, and I think a lot of people are focusing on the wrong things. 

[Arrae]

I've tried my best to be ridiculously active this game in order to draw out a Spiked attack on me. That's why I've been posting so much during the nights and making my new style of analysis so visible to everybody. I'm kind of miffed that people decided to lynch me instead. (Of course, I'm even more miffed at myself, because I thought I was finally getting good at this game. Turns out those suspicious tendencies are still as strong as ever.)

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

I probably should have made myself more clear with some OOG text, yeah. I do think it was a waste, but that's because I'm convinced she's not even Spiked, and we've now had the discussion run away from us without a lot of variety for another day, largely to me because people weren't actually thinking things through. Most of the arguments I saw were illogical, like what I pointed out in Nyali's, and I definitely think we should have lynched Nyali instead. Now, I think she's likely a good target for the next lynch, since I don't think that simply surviving a lynch makes Rae guiltier, and I think a lot of people are focusing on the wrong things. 

This is a fair point. Yes, if Nyali is more suspicious, it still makes more sense to lynch Nyali and not Rae.

Surviving does not make Rae any more or less suspicious than before. People should not be making decisions based on someone's survival, since elims and townies can both have access to pewter.

I still find Rae more suspicious, which is why, in the absence of new information, I would probably vote Rae on the lynch on the next day cycle. However, I still need to catch up on some of the previous cycle, which might potentially change my mind about things.

[Seonid he/him]

18 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

I appreciate the RP, but considering you didn't make any kind of OOC comments below it like I did when I defended Dalinar only for the sake of RP... I assume you actually mean this.

And, pardon me, but I have a hard time seeing any sense to this argument.

If it takes two kills to kill an eliminator, why on earth is that a reason to never use the requisite two cycles to kill them?

It almost feels like you are trying to draw out a coinshot to attack you.

 

In my opinion, the only argument to not lynch Rae that makes sense is Elenion's:

And, as you may have noticed, this argument, while insightful, no longer applies to our current situation. We already wasted a lynch on Rae. At this point, there is no reason not to follow through (But don't do that with a coinshot attack, since it would be wasted due to the fact that elims probably have a lurcher).

Wrong. For those of us who don't believe that Rae is evil, and who can't find any merit to any of the arguments against her yesterday, lynching her again would be just as stupid as it was yesterday. If she was even moderately suspicious yesterday, there would be good reason to follow up today. But the only reason she got lynched was because the village was lazy and didn't bother actually listening and engaging with anyone who wasn't pointing at Rae.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Seonid
Fixing spelling errors

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Seonid said:

Wrong. For those of us who don't believe that Rae is evil, and who can't find any merit to any of the arguments against her yesterday, lynching her again would be just as stupid as it was yesterday. If she was even moderately suspicious yesterday, there would be good reason to follow up today. But the only reason she got lynched was because the village was lazy and didn't bother actually listening and engaging with anyone who want pointing at Rae.

Perhaps. But Is that the reasoning any of you initially cited? Initially your argument was basically "well, the lynch failed, better give up."

I see where you are coming from if you simply believe that Rae is not the best lynch choice.

But the logic everyone first brought up to defend Rae was... Well, dangerous to the town, to put it simply.

And, to be frank, I'm not sure how I feel about everyone backtracking on that initial reasoning now that there is backlash against it.

Some of you are undoubtedly perfectly sincere, but if Rae turns out guilty, you will probably have a bit of explaining to do.

[Seonid he/him]

10 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Perhaps. But Is that the reasoning any of you initially cited? Initially your argument was basically "well, the lynch failed, better give up."

I see where you are coming from if you simply believe that Rae is not the best lynch choice.

But the logic everyone first brought up to defend Rae was... Well, dangerous to the town, to put it simply.

And, to be frank, I'm not sure how I feel about everyone backtracking on that initial reasoning now that there is backlash against it.

Some of you are undoubtedly perfectly sincere, but if Rae turns out guilty, you will probably have a bit of explaining to do.

My logic was never "we couldn't lynch her, so we shouldn't try again." If you had read my strong defense of her last cycle, you would know that I was never suspicious of her to begin with. Rather, I voted for Nyali because she was slightly suspicious to me, and could potentially have been the rioter that tried to save Dalinar. Better that than someone I was and am convinced is innocent.

When I saw that she had survived, my convent was literally to the effect that her survival had proved her truthful about having pewter that night.

That's it. I wanted to vote for Wonko last cycle, but by the time I got on, the bandwagon on Rae was strong (and for reasons that held no water whatsoever). So I voted Nyali to try and save Rae.

With that in mind - all publicly documented, by the way - my argument today has consistently been that I didn't think she was evil then, I still don't think she is evil now, and I want to lynch someone who I do think is evil.

 

EDIT: And I claim no responsibility for the views of anyone else who defends Rae. If they are faulty, they are faulty, but it doesn't make my arguments more or less valid.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Seonid