Long Game 33: Life

[Alvron he/him]

Just now, randuir said:

That would have required a trip to Imre, which isn't too likely this early in the term, I think.

Depends on if they wanted their Pipes. I know that if I had the skill then I would've gone as soon as I could to maximize the benefit of having them.

[Straw he/him]

Darkness and Darkness. For the tuition reductions. Don't forget to make a PM for a tution reduction!

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I wasn't able to complete my analysis last night, due to the volume of posts and the length of time it takes, but will get up what I have when I get home from work, and will continue.

For now, I'd reiterate the point I made about voting with intent. No, we don't immediately find out whether or not our target was a skindancer, but we do get to build a picture of which players others defend, which is incredibly useful when we do start gaining information about alignments. At that point, we can catch multiple skindancers through association, rather than having to catch each individually.

As such, Queensteph, Queensteph: 

In C1, you've made four posts by the point I had to cease analysis for the night.

I have the following post summaries in my spreadsheet:

8. RP, groups players by social class

51. Asks PK to explain the mass voting. Sounds sensible, but confusing. Doesn't want to follow a plan she doesn't understand. Asks Stink whether it's not a good idea to keep art from thread

58. Thanks PK for clarifying, doesn't see how it helps beyind lowering tuition. Votes Brightness on those grounds. Tells Sart it's because Hael is Hael in player list

64. Jumps of voting as doesn't need money. Vote tally. No vote the way to go.

I have a number of thoughts based on these posts. 

The first, whilst useful, didn't commit you to any thoughts on the game. It gives the impression of contribution to discussion whilst not giving us anything that might provide an insight into your alignment. Why not conduct some analysis on role distribution, given you're focusing on it?

Your second post raised a red flag for me. You seemed far too eager to agree with Paranoid King's plan, whilst in a self-admitted position of not understanding it. This, to me, gives the impression that you want to be seen to be involved in planning, whilst not presenting a challenging position that might draw attention to yourself.

Your next post seems similarly non-confrontational. You again claim not to see how the plan helps beyond tuition reduction, and then go on to vote on this basis anyway, despite it being to far through the cycle, in accordance with Paranoid King's suggestions.

It is the next post in combination with these that has earned you my votes. Here, you undertake a volte-face, but six posts later, in the face of disagreement with Paranoid King's plan from Drake Marshall, and indeed claim that needing the tuition reduction isn't enough to motivate you to vote. Now, I'm not arguing that opinions can't change in the face of evidence, but you seem to be changing opinion to fit with whatever is said, without your own analysis of plans. 

I will reiterate that my analysis does not extend beyond post 73 of T1M1, and am perfectly willing to accept that there may be major considerations which I have overlooked.

[Aonar he/him]

Whichever one of the Nine stole my Namer status, shame on you. >> As another Ruh with a crappy pipes stat (and very little time to RP) basically my whole game plan revolved around getting Wind last turn. Now I get to hang out in Imre and do nothing for two turns. >>

[STINK he/him]

46 minutes ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Whichever one of the Nine stole my Namer status, shame on you. >> As another Ruh with a crappy pipes stat (and very little time to RP) basically my whole game plan revolved around getting Wind last turn. Now I get to hang out in Imre and do nothing for two turns. >>

That's what happens when you don't ask others to kindly not interrupt your study.

[Haelbarde he/him]

If this ever gets rerun,  you should make the Edema performance bonus a fixed minimum,  rather than a small bonus.  It makes no sense for Edema,  who get a lodging discount due to their performing ability to be useless performers,  and presumably below average.

[Jondesu he/him]

Apologies, @Haelbarde, I didn't even fully comprehend the Edema Rah status, and I won't vote on you or any other Edema's without good suspicion. I'm glad you didn't end up being brought on the horns because of my mistake.

[Haelbarde he/him]

All good.  A jot and an EP isn't a big deal,  and to be clear,  I don't want to discourage discussion or votes based on suspicion,  so if you're suspicious,  go right ahead!  Though earlier in the cycle would be preferable,  so I can respond (end of cycle is 4-6am or something for me)

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

6 hours ago, Alvron said:

Eh, I wasn't worried about you attacking me back then either, this seemed the perfect chance to call it even.  btw, you still keeping the fluffy blankie close by? 

A good start would be a list of those staying at the Pony.  Anyone care to reveal if they are at the Pony?

....Yes. Yes i am. Blankie is here always.

[STINK he/him]

Speaking of EP and promotions and stuff. I just found out that I only get 4EP now. So yeah, that's something to note for all you peeps that don't know the rules by heart (so like, most people?).

AND OBLIGATORY STAY AWAY FROM MY LINGUISTICS I'VE NEARLY DISCOVERED THE COMMA

[Stick. she/her]

Well. 10 players got elevated. 4 players on the streets. DA, Aman and Assassin of which having dropped out/being inactive. And Sart. I'm guessing that's because he didn't post at all last turn, so he may have not been around to send in his lodging order. He did get elevated though.

And Mage got targeted by the skin dancers. Is write-up's based on Mage's RP rather than giving any actual hints? Like had Mage been spending his EPs to impress the Master Archivist? Don't really know if that matters though. Did the skin dancers want to get elevated in that field with the least people in their way as possible? Mage's RP did indicate he'd be going for the Archives.

[little wilson she/her]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

10 players got elevated.

I should hope not, unless there's a mysterious 10th Master floating around.

[Paranoid King he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Well. 10 players got elevated.

By the way, why would @Sart put in EP but not post in the thread? I mean, he's an Edema Ruh, so he desperately needs the money. Unless he's not planning to attend the University? But then why would he put in orders for EP? Unless he just plans to get an ability and leave as soon as possible? It's confusing.

And is he not posting because of inactivity or... no, because all he needed to do was say "Hey guys, I've got a lot going on," and he'd get a full talent reduction. I feel like he's trying to stay under the radar, like you can in normal games, but that didn't work here.

Well, he'll be dead soon enough, because he's on the streets, but I'll complain about him anyways. Sart.

 

[DeTess she/her]

13 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

By the way, why would Sart put in EP but not post in the thread? I mean, he's an Edema Ruh, so he desperately needs the money. Unless he's not planning to attend the University? But then why would he put in orders for EP? Unless he just plans to get an ability and leave as soon as possible? It's confusing.

If Sart had put in the EP on month 1, he could have been elevated based on that. If he'd gone inactive for the next month, he might have forgotten to put in lodging orders, and ended up on the street.

Edit: I'll also try to have some analysis up before the end of the cycle, but that will be up within the last couple of hours.

Edited May 3, 2017 by randuir

[Paranoid King he/him]

Yeah, but he didn't post during either of the terms. It's a full talent reduction just for posting, so I don't see why he wouldn't do that.

[ImpossibleBowler he/him]

Just read all the tags. They're Funny!

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Yeah, but he didn't post during either of the terms. It's a full talent reduction just for posting, so I don't see why he wouldn't do that.

 I've counted 4 posts by him in the first term (remember that you can check someones profile to see their most recent posts).

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Paranoid King, @randuir, Sart said during T1M1 that he would only study for a single term (post 31 of the game), although later (post 41) said that he might be able to stay for an additional cycle, if he were able to file a complaint, which he then did on QueenSteph (post 57). I haven't yet analysed T1M2, but will add further thoughts on Sart later.

@Paranoid King, @randuir, @little wilson, @Ornstein, given you're all around, what are your thoughts on my proposal last turn that we actually use the vote effectively, and on my thoughts about @queensteph

Edited May 3, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai
Can't add a question mark after @queensteph apparently. >>

[little wilson she/her]

I agree with both? Particularly about Steph, but I mentioned I was suspicious of her last turn, and that's why I voted on her turn 1. My suspicion has not lessened.

[ImpossibleBowler he/him]

... i'm not sure.

 

About Queensteph though, I don't think i agree. 

[Paranoid King he/him]

Ah. My bad. I tried searching for Sart's name with the search bar.

4 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Sart said during T1M1 that he would only study for a single term (post 31 of the game), although later (post 41) said that he might be able to stay for an additional cycle, if he were able to file a complaint, which he then did on QueenSteph (post 57). I haven't yet analysed T1M2, but will add further thoughts on Sart later.

Given you're all around, what are your thoughts on my proposal last turn that we actually use the vote effectively, and on my thoughts about Queensteph?

Well, complaints this game don't give us info like they do in others. They just tend to inconvenience people. So, vote on people you want to inconvenience, not those you want to learn more about?

Yeah, Queensteph seems worth voting on. I'll go for it.

[STINK he/him]

You know those annoying guts? The thing that generally means you can't quite explain why and it always looks really suspicious but I don't even care 'bout that?

Jondesu.

Get gutted, Jon. 

[Stick. she/her]

27 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I should hope not, unless there's a mysterious 10th Master floating around.

I can swear I typed 9...

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Paranoid King, my thoughts on this last cycle (an addendum to another point being made):

Looking over the LG18 spreadsheet, I would reiterate to everyone, the importance of lodging. Mercenaries kill, saving the skindancers two turns for every player who becomes a victim, which happened to 7 of 24 players last game. Even without Wilson's die, and their eagerness for bloodshed (despite her own more enlightened predilections), the streets are dangerous. It's probably too late in the day to remind everyone this cycle, but it's not a bad idea going forward.

Coupled with insanity, and the check it poses on village strength (the crockery being tantamount to death), I'd have thought that we're unlikely to see more than 5 eliminators this game, despite the weakness of sabotages vs traditional kills. The eliminators will have a material advantage in coordination in the early game, and in a game with the opportunities for synergy such as this, such early coordination will pay dividends. We can, of course, set the eliminators back in their planning. Expulsions for the village are unfortunate, and reduce a single player's power. Expelling a skin dancer may upset the balance of their team.

As such, I would support actually dangerous lynches going forward from the next cycle. I realise this is rather hypocritical, but I am unable to vote from a position of knowledge today - a situation I fully intend to have corrected by tomorrow.

To expound and explain, the point I'm making here is that expulsion is of greater inconvenience to the skindancers, who are likely to try to build a synergistic team, than to the village.

The more salient point I made earlier this cycle. The information from a lynch doesn't come from revealing their alignment, but from the interactions of players surrounding the lynch - who ignores it, who engages in discussing a player, who defends them, who proposes a different lynch target. All of those we get without needing to know the alignment of the player who was voted for. This means that when we catch a single skindancer, they provide valuable information as to the identity of the other skindancers, which means we don't have to catch mistakes made by each of them.

[Arinian]

10 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Interesting. All nine fields raised someone. Unfortunately, one was not me... D:

Seeing as I have it prepared, I shall post this now...

@Arinian (and @Jondesu and @randuir, though it's unclear exactly what your thoughts had been)

O:

Sorry, M'Hael () forgot that you are Edema Ruh.

Also if someone interested I still staying at Horse and Four.

11 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Ah. My bad. I tried searching for Sart's name with the search bar.

Well, complaints this game don't give us info like they do in others. They just tend to inconvenience people. So, vote on people you want to inconvenience, not those you want to learn more about?

Yeah, Queensteph seems worth voting on. I'll go for it.

Honestly, I don't see why people is suspicious of her and I don't like your behavior. You too fast with throwing votes. PK, DA.

RP:

Spoiler

Hmm… What to tell? Oh, I just remembered what I wanted to say.

Second time when Darian studied in University ended not so brightly as previous one. Almost all his time he was wasting trying to get elevation working in Artificery and studying in Archives. Honestly he was not so interested in work with books in Archives but more in one bright eyed person with long blond hair and charming smile. Her name was… hmm… I can’t remember and I doubt that Darian remember too due to events that happened later, but I   will tell about that events little bit later. All that you need to know about that magnificent lady that she almost all her time was spending in Archives with books and so Darian. But then one sunny day she went insane.

What? You want to hear more about that? No, no… that’s boring story she just went insane that’s all.

Of course Darian visited her in Crockery hoping that her mind will return to her but that not happened. So couple months later he just dropped study and disappeared again.

Where he was all this time I don’t know so even don’t ask me about that. What I can say that this period in time he almost all time was drunk.