Long Game 33: Life

[Sparkrunner he/him]

I think that the whole Steph bandwagon is suspicious. Mebbe the skinnies trying to get a noble,one who could buy all kinds of neat things in Imre, expelled. Probably unwarranted suspicion, bug worth looking at.

 

[queensteph she/her]

@little wilson Ok i knew you had placed a vote on me I just wasn't sure who it was that did the first vote.

I put a vote on you (D1) because, if i remember correctly, the cycle was about to be over and I wanted to place a vote that would do the least amount of harm and since you had said you didn't mind if people voted on you i went ahead and did it. I wasn't trying to close the option for anyone else. Although I don't much see how it mattered because if someone else had voted on you twice already I would've still voted on someone else. so either way the same amount of people would've been voted on. I placed a vote on you this time because, yes, I am suspicious of you. And now I am of Burnt for reasons you stated becuase didn't even know the grams were sold out, so thanks for telling me.  I don't see why it would be unheard of if a skindancer offered themselves up? It's not like you get exposed and it's an easy way to get on people's good sides.

[little wilson she/her]

2 minutes ago, queensteph said:

I put a vote on you (D1) because, if i remember correctly, the cycle was about to be over and I wanted to place a vote that would do the least amount of harm and since you had said you didn't mind if people voted on you i went ahead and did it.

I didn't mind if people voted on me for tuition reduction. Which you didn't care about.

[queensteph she/her]

@little wilson  i just didn't catch that you only wanted people who wanted tuition reductions to vote on you at first.

which is why, after you asked me about tuitions, i removed my vote on you?

the only reason i wanted to place a second vote was because I wanted to lower my penalties. 

I've already said this several times. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

So... More discussion on Steph.

I believe the voting thing the first cycle isn't terribly indicative, personally. Maybe it seems a bit off, but it looks like it could easily be an honest mistake. I think you guys are looking so hard to see if people are acting logically, and they aren't always going to do what you would have done in their place. They're going to be confused sometimes. I don't think Steph's vote on Wilson really crowded out anyone who actually needed a tuition reduction, and I don't really see the eliminators casting a vote like that. If the eliminators didn't have one of their own in the voting pool, they probably wouldn't have voted and hoped it got more villagers a lashing. If they did have one or more team members at risk, they probably would have placed a vote somewhere it would actually matter, not on someone who already said they were at the Golden Pony. I really think Steph was honestly mistaken about the rules surrounding the Golden Pony. Which I can understand, because I really didn't understand the rules about the Golden Pony during the first turn either.

 

On the other hand. I find Wilson's revelation about the gram quite interesting.

I believe it is indeed correct that only a Vintish noble could have bought one this early (unless there isn't any announcement when people win pipes, but I'm pretty sure there is one).

Now, I can see some really good reasons for members of either team to buy a gram quickly.

A village would like a gram because it is a 2-shot protection from sabotage, which seems very useful (and a gram is better talents-per-protection value than 2 body guards or 2 bloodless, if you have the money to burn). Plus a gram additionally keeps you safe from other villagers mistakenly using kill actions on you, which is also pretty useful for a villager.

An eliminator would probably have even better reasons to buy a gram. First of all, there are the reasons Wilson listed. You gain a transferable protection from things like assassins, which gives the eliminator team security. Second, you keep everyone else from getting access to a gram. Provided you have the money for it, an eliminator might as well keep a gram out of village hands. And a Vintish noble definitely has the money.

 

So... I'd say buying a gram so early in the game might be marginally suspicious, simply because it seems like the benefits for eliminators are slightly greater then the benefits for villagers. I would hesitate to vote on someone on those grounds, but I'd definitely be watching them.

But... More to the point... Steph denied having purchased the gram.

That claim is really quite easy to validate. So I'm interested to hear... @Burnt Spaghetti, can you confirm that you bought the gram, or are you also going to deny buying it?

I doubt an eliminator would be so careless to lie about something so obviously easy to test, but it's worth a shot. If Burnt can confirm that Steph is telling the truth, I personally wouldn't see much reason to continue suspecting Steph.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Just popping in to say that I have a LOT going on for the rest of the week, and will probably be mostly inactive for the next few days. I'll still put in actions and post in the thread occasionally, but you're not going to see any detailed analysis from me.

[little wilson she/her]

12 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

(unless there isn't any announcement when people win pipes, but I'm pretty sure there is one).

I'm not sure there's an announcement when people win Pipes, but, more to the point, that doesn't even matter. The earliest anyone could've tried for the Pipes is T1M2. The 10 talents the Pipes bring would come at the same time the stipend comes through, which is after you purchase things in Imre. Therefore, even if a non-Vint won the Pipes T1M2, they could not have purchased the gram. The only players who could purchase the gram in Term 1 at all are the Vints.

 

Quote

A village would like a gram because it is a 2-shot protection from sabotage, which seems very useful (and a gram is better talents-per-protection value than 2 body guards or 2 bloodless, if you have the money to burn). Plus a gram additionally keeps you safe from other villagers mistakenly using kill actions on you, which is also pretty useful for a villager.

Emphasis mine

From the rules doc:

So, uh, yeah. 2-shot protection from sabotage, for 7 talents less than the gram. Why exactly would a villager go for the gram over the Bodyguard, again?

 

Quote

Steph denied having purchased the gram.

Denying it is literally the only she could've done, regardless of if it's true or not. If she's a Skindancer, she doesn't want everyone knowing she has a gram. She wants people to think Burnt does and split the suspicion on Burnt. If she's a student and she has a gram, she's also not likely to want everyone--Skindancers included--to know that she has a gram, because then they know she's protected from their attack and can direct their attention elsewhere, which makes her 15 talent purchase pointless. The same goes for Burnt. I fully expect Burnt to deny having a gram as well.

My interest is in Cluny. He's really intent on not having Steph punished again. Is no one else curious why he's so adamant in Cycle 2 about someone?

Actually....punished again. I've been thinking about this wrong. Steph was punished on T1M1 for Reckless Use and lashed, before it was even possible to obtain Nahlrout so she would've had the turn roleblock. Even if she'd placed an order to go to Imre, she couldn't have purchased a gram because she couldn't do anything that turn. She was recovering in Medica. Mage also couldn't have purchased the gram, because Imre actions happen before offensive, and the gram would've blocked the sabotage. Which leaves Burnt. And now that I think about it, Burnt didn't really seem terribly phased about her lashing. Perhaps that's because she'd purchased a bit of nahlrout to stop the effects so she could actually continue Skindancing on her way.

And since I still don't see why a villager, even a rich one, would purchase a 15 talent gram for the 2-sabotage protection over an 8 talent Bodyguard that also has 2-sabotage protection, I think I'm going to be retracting from Steph (who couldn't have bought the gram) and voting for Burnt. Steph Steph. Burnt Burnt.

[Alvron he/him]

Vote Tally:
Darkness (5): Straw*2, Ari, HH, Joe
Steph (4): Orlok*2, PK, HH, Wilson*2
Sart (1): PK
Jon (1): Stink
PK (3): Ari, Cluny, Steph
HH (1): Cluny
Aman (2): Joe, Alv
Burnt (4): Wilson*2, Drake*2

Aman.  For now.  Will hopefully be able to place proper votes in a couple of hours.

Edit: Updated Tally

Edited May 4, 2017 by Alvron

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Actually....punished again. I've been thinking about this wrong. Steph was punished on T1M1 for Reckless Use and lashed, before it was even possible to obtain Nahlrout so she would've had the turn roleblock. Even if she'd placed an order to go to Imre, she couldn't have purchased a gram because she couldn't do anything that turn. She was recovering in Medica. Mage also couldn't have purchased the gram, because Imre actions happen before offensive, and the gram would've blocked the sabotage. Which leaves Burnt. And now that I think about it, Burnt didn't really seem terribly phased about her lashing. Perhaps that's because she'd purchased a bit of nahlrout to stop the effects so she could actually continue Skindancing on her way.

And since I still don't see why a villager, even a rich one, would purchase a 15 talent gram for the 2-sabotage protection over an 8 talent Bodyguard that also has 2-sabotage protection, I think I'm going to be retracting from Steph (who couldn't have bought the gram) and voting for Burnt. Steph Steph. Burnt Burnt.

Hmmmm.... Good catch. You're right. Can't be Steph.

And if bodyguard really is two shots... Now that is odd. I didn't know that...

It could still of coarse be a mistake. Maybe Burnt simply made a bad purchase as a villager. But I agree that it doesn't make very much logical sense, to purchase a gram if you only wanted to protect yourself. And I highly doubt that a villager would honestly want to give away a gram (unless they were an artificer and could make more, but then why buy one in the first place?).

But one thing about your accusation doesn't really line up to me. If Burnt was buying a gram to protect her eliminator buddies, why not just buy two bodyguards instead? I know you can't transfer ownership of a bodyguard after you purchase it, but you can purchase one on behalf of someone else. It seems that two non-transferrable protective powers is better then one transferable one, even for an eliminator.

And yet... 2 bodyguards is definitely a better deal for a villager, because that nets you 4 protections against sabotages where a gram only nets you 2 protections against sabotages. But an eliminator doesn't care about sabotage protection. They want protection from actual kills. And a bodyguard is only 1-shot protection for a kill, not a 2-shot. Which makes the gram a much more attractive option for an eliminator. A gram, like 2 body guards, can ultimately block 2 kills. But it's transferable, and also 1 talent cheaper than 2 bodyguards. Which makes a gram a good idea for an eliminator to buy, but a bad idea for a villager to buy.

I think the case is strong enough to vote Burnt Burnt.

[little wilson she/her]

I believe the same person cannot purchase two Assassins or two Bodyguards at the same time. They can purchase multiple throughout the game, but if you purchase one, you have to wait for the current contract to end before you can purchase a new one. Which would explain why one wouldn't purchase two Bodyguards and then place them on others.

Also, I messed up the price of the Bodyguard. It's 7 talents right now. 7-8, it's all the same to the poor. Either way, I can't afford it, and it's still significantly cheaper than the gram.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Hmmm... In that case I can see why a villager who didn't care about money might buy a gram.

But a bodyguard still looks like a better choice, so I'll keep the vote up. I'm less certain about it though.

[Haelbarde he/him]

I'm not a 100% on the rules for the Imre,  but can one go to Devi's and purchase something from the black market /the apocathery on the same turn? Because if so,  then an Aturan Nobleperson could also purchase a gram. Commoners still wouldn't.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Haelbarde

[queensteph she/her]

I'm going to take my vote off of Wilson, because I trust her more now that she's targeted Burnt. 

I thought there would probably be a Vintish Noble skindancer, and seeing as how Mage was already sabotaged, only me and Burnt are left.

I didn't vote on her earlier because I didn't want to vote on her just based on her rank, but Wilson brought up a good argument with the gram.

And as I obviously know I'm village then my suspicions are on Burnt. If the skindancers don't have a VN then I'm sorry. 

 

Edit: I would like to hear from Burnt though, it kinda sucks that she can't try to stick up for herself (unless she hurries rn). 

Edited May 4, 2017 by queensteph
the red font i'd used was too dark

[Haelbarde he/him]

I checked through the elim doc from lg18, and when I went to the imre in that game,  I got my talent pipes, a loan from Devi,  a gram and 2 nahlrout all in one turn. So any of our five Aturans could also have purchased the gram, by getting a loan.

[queensteph she/her]

2 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

I checked through the elim doc from lg18, and when I went to the imre in that game,  I got my talent pipes, a loan from Devi,  a gram and 2 nahlrout all in one turn. So any of our five Aturans could also have purchased the gram, by getting a loan.

Hm okay, i'm sorry for being so wishy washy (you can hate me it's okay i hate me too ) but seeing as how Burnt isn't the only one able to buy a gram I think I'll remove my vote from her. I'm still suspicious of her, obviously, but I don't want her to get uber punished just because of her rank if she's NOT a skindancer, plus it doesn't look like she'll have time to comment on any of this til next turn so I want to give her a fighting chance at least. I'm sure this whole conversation will carry into the next turn. 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

I did infact buy a gram.

And nahlrot. So i aint lashed either. 

And failed at my talent pipes. Not that i needed more money.

 

So why did i get a gram? Cause paranoia? Cause stopping anyone else getting one? And cause i could?

Why am i paranoid? (When arent i paranoid). Cause i fully expected a vintish to be eliminated somehow early on.  And i was fully justified in this. Mage was a vintish and just got sabotaged. And then when i put in orders to buy a gram, i was currently at a potential expulsion risk. A sabotaged expelled student insta dies. Soo. Woulda been a good opportunity to be sabotaged imo. Sure i could have gotten a bodyguard. But. Why get a bodyguard when i can afford a gram? Same with bloodless. Why get bloodless when i can afford a gram?  Grams arent a limitless resource and i could afford one. Id be a idiot to not get one tbh. If i were a skindancer, why would i leave it there for a villager to get it? If i were a villager why would i leave it there for a skindancer to get it?

 

 

Also.

I see a lot of "oh noes burnt wont be on to respond"

 

Im australian. Its 4pm. Rollover is somehing like. 2 or 3ish am.

 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I think the relevant point in Wilson's argument is that a bodyguard is actually just as good as a gram for your stated purposes. But a gram might be preferable for an eliminator's purposes.

I'll admit, I'm not very sure about your guilt. Before you actually made your defense, I was still quite aware that getting a gram might simply seem like the best course of action. I mean, in truth, the simple fact that the gram costs more might make actually it look better to you, even though practically speaking it really isn't superior to a bodyguard. People with a lot of money tend to gravitate towards the most expensive item, even when in a utilitarian sense it isn't any better than much cheaper alternatives, and I don't see why a game is any exception to that pattern.

So, yeah. You could totally be innocent. I understand that.

I'm not going to retract my vote tonight though. I believe the gram purchase is odd enough that I am willing to vote on you.

I should be online before rollover tomorrow, in case some critical new development requires me to change my vote. But yeah.

Oh, also, Wilson. As much as you are making good points, it hasn't completely escaped my notice that you are basically trying to get a sabotage-immune person lynched. Now, given your thought process, it really doesn't seem like you are doing it for evil motives. And, plus, I am also voting on Burnt. But I'll at least voice the fact of it. In the unlikely chance that you are actually doing it to be evil, I don't want it to go completely under the radar

Edited May 4, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Okay fair enough 

Still think its a bit trigger happy that just cause i bought a item thats useful to the holder regardless of alignment that i should be expelled. But sure. Expell me. Leave me as a vintish chilling in the imre. I believe expelled students can still buy everything. Im probably more useful there anyways.

Anyways. Im exhausted (yes its only 5pm but i had my first student teacher placement today so im quite drained) so imma nap. I'll be back in a few hours.

If people want to lynch me so be it. I wont counter vote unless people decide that vote spreading is what they want to do. Why? Dont have suspicions other than annoyance at being voted for again.

Hey maybe if im expelled i will buy bloodless and bodyguards instead! Why not! Stockpile it all! Dont that sound fun?

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Hey maybe if im expelled i will buy bloodless and bodyguards instead! Why not! Stockpile it all! Dont that sound fun?

Just stay away from those assassins, k?  

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

Just stay away from those assassins, k?  

But whyyy. Assassins make wonderful company.

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

But whyyy. Assassins make wonderful company.

Because you give them ideas.  Ideas that might end with sharp things being poked into soft fleshy things.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

Because you give them ideas.  Ideas that might end with sharp things being poked into soft fleshy things.

Ideas like going to a nice food place and stabing knives and forks into soft fleshy meaty food?

[Alvron he/him]

Just now, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Ideas like going to a nice food place and stabing knives and forks into soft fleshy meaty food?

See!  That's precisely what I'm talking about.  What's wrong with a spoon?  A nice dull rusty spoon?

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Just now, Alvron said:

See!  That's precisely what I'm talking about.  What's wrong with a spoon?  A nice dull rusty spoon?

You reckon going for icecream would be better? Wouldn't the rust ruin the flavour though? 

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

You reckon going for icecream would be better? Wouldn't the rust ruin the flavour though? 

Frozen yogurt instead.  Assassins gotta watch their weight else they can't sneak in and stick sharp things into fleshy things.  Depends on the flavour I suppose.