Long Game 33: Life

[Elbereth she/her]

After a few turns of rollover, we've determined that it is possible for us to shorten the rollover period to 6 hours. I'm perfectly happy to do to this cycle, and will do so unless a number of people particularly disagree. Cycle would now end at 6 p.m. MDT / 1 a.m. BST / australians calculate your own time.  The new end will be: 

 

Also, clarification: writeups will not include clues to elevations. They will include clarifications for other things - sabotages, for instance, and kills. (I forgot to clarify, actually. DA was killed by Mercenaries, in case that was unclear. His writeup will be posted sometime today)

[Stick. she/her]

25 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Does anyone have a list of who hasn't been elevated?

1.    BrightnessRadiant

2.    Aman

3.    Stick

4.    Assassin

5.    Ornstein

6.    Straw

7.    Wilson

8.    Randuir

9.    Hael (INSANE)

10. Silverblade (INSANE)

11. DA (DEAD)

i guess those are the ones not elevated 

Edited May 5, 2017 by _Stick_

[DeTess she/her]

Telar was spending long days at the university again. He was determined to earn and Elevation to E’lir this term, but after thoroughly ruining his chances by oversleeping, he needed to put in a lot of work to make it happen.

So he took on extra assignments, and worked twice as hard on all mandatory work to try and repair the damage. If this meant spending most of his waking hours in classes or lectures, so be it.

Right now he was slaving away on an assignment for his Medica courses. He’d still not gotten over the nausea he suffered from whenever he was confronted with pictures of severely damaged human bodies, but he’d promised his father that he’d follow these course, so he just wrestled through as best he could.

Another student was sitting at a desk next to his. Though maybe sitting wasn’t the right word. Reclining? Lounging? Resting? The student would wake up, study for a couple of minutes, then fall asleep again.

Telar took a better look at what the student was doing. Based on his notes and the book he was currently using as a pillow he was studying the human bone structure. Among his notes was a rough drawing of a human rib-cage with the names of the various bones marked.

Telar looked back to his own work. One of the questions he needed to answer was about the basic complications that could occur because of the various ribs breaking. The diagram the sleeping student had made would certainly be useful for that. He started to reach over to the other students notes. The boy was asleep, so he wouldn’t notice that the note had gone missing, and judging by his clothing he was a Noble, so it wasn’t like he needed to rush through his study anyway.

‘It is human nature to always find justification for his actions, no matter how selfish and unjustifiable that action is.’ Telar sighed and pulled his hand back. The one Medica course he actually enjoyed was psychology, but it did make fooling yourself quite difficult.

Telar reached out to the other student again, and gently shook his shoulder o wake him up. “Hey, I’m sorry to wake you, but I’d noticed we are working on something similar. Maybe if we help each-other out , we can both go home early and get some proper rest.” Telar offered his hand to the other student. “I’m Telar Pike, by the way.”

@Hemalurgic_Headshot.

I'll try to get some more analysis up tomorrow.

[Alvron he/him]

3 hours ago, Arinian said:

But looks like I can't do nothing with that. Alv, Alv.  Why this game so uninteresting for you? Oh, it's will be great if you will say me in which field you was elevated... hmm... lets make exchange I will say in which field I was elevated and you will say in which you was, in PM of course. Then maybe I will retract my vote.

Whoever said I wasn't interested in the game?  I am very much interested just likely not in the way you think.  Mage, Burnt and Hael hydra  are all playing and I have something to settle with each one.  I am a little upset that both Mage and Hael hydra  are insane as it removes some of the fun but I'm sure I can find something interesting to do to them.

If you think I was uninterested in game by way of the back and forth post of me and Burnt then know that that was purely to lower my post:PM ratio. 

And if you think I'm going to share my field of study with you in a PM because you voted on me, then you don't know me at all.  PM safety is one of my hallmarks.  But if you want to play that game then let's have some fun.  Ari, Ari.  Let us both go on the horns and see which of us the Gods of Luck and Chance favor more.

[Straw he/him]

@A Joe in the Bush Your wish is granted! Arinian Arinian. I'm making graphs because I don't have many opinions and I feel that data is useful to the village.

Here's your requested graph:

People, feel free to ask me to make a certain graph for you.

Edited May 5, 2017 by Straw

[A Joe in the Bush]

Can you make a graph of all votes, including retracted votes, across all cycles?

[Straw he/him]

Will you take your vote off me if I do?

EDIT: My current post count is the number people call when they see me.

Edited May 5, 2017 by Straw

[A Joe in the Bush]

Sure, and Nice one.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I've had a day's work, and have just spent more than five hours analysing the game. I've had very little sleep this week, and am unlikely to get a sensible post up tonight, due to tiredness.

@A Joe in the Bush, I can provide the data for such a graph, but am really running out of energy tonight, and want to spend the time I have before falling asleep making a post.

So, I haven't quite caught up. I've done maybe 150 posts today, and have about 80 to go. 

As such, take what I say bearing that in mind. On the other hand, I have read everything multiple times, and it's a moot point this time.

I, too, am suspicious of Straw. His actions this game have been very consistent. I've analysed 313 posts so far this game, and am not sure he's yet presented his own thoughts on anything, in the twelve posts he's made up to this point.

In post 20, he announced he was here.

In post 22, he glared at HH for asking him a question.

In post 45, he looked at some of the rules, and broke down income by social class.

In post 80, he wrote down the tuition calculation.

In post 86, he told Queensteph the BB Code for voting.

In post 91, he votes on Randuir for tuition reduction.

In post 95, he suggests Joe makes charts.

In post 99, he graphs income and tuition.

In post 123, he announces that we've learnt that Silverblade (who was just sabotaged) was probably not a skindancer).

In post 152, he makes a pie chart. I haven't written down what it was about, but recall it being of limited value.

In post 171, he summons Drake, and asks him to remove his vote from Hemalurgic Headshot (although notably not from Burnt).

In post 240, he votes on DA for tuition reduction.

 

In none of these posts has Straw provided any thoughts of his own. He's been active this game, and more so than usual, but hasn't once stuck his head over the parapet to offer suggestions, or anything that might be analysed. This, to me, raises the question of why he is trying to appear active and contributing, whilst not actually really doing so.

@Straw, different though your charts are, would you care to actually offer opinions on players, so that we may analyse you, rather than hiding behind uncontroversial charts?

[Arinian]

38 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Whoever said I wasn't interested in the game?  I am very much interested just likely not in the way you think.  Mage, Burnt and Hael hydra  are all playing and I have something to settle with each one.  I am a little upset that both Mage and Hael hydra  are insane as it removes some of the fun but I'm sure I can find something interesting to do to them.

If you think I was uninterested in game by way of the back and forth post of me and Burnt then know that that was purely to lower my post:PM ratio. 

And if you think I'm going to share my field of study with you in a PM because you voted on me, then you don't know me at all.  PM safety is one of my hallmarks.  But if you want to play that game then let's have some fun.  Ari, Ari.  Let us both go on the horns and see which of us the Gods of Luck and Chance favor more.

I made large answer but site messed up it. So, okay,  lets just  test my luck. But looking back on LG30 I know how everything will end.

Oh also to people who votes on me you really think that I'm so idiot? Like what need I have had to make previous post if I elim? How many people was suspicious of me? Not many. Why I would make so risky post if I elim? No reasons. But okay.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Arinian said:

I made large answer but site messed up it. So, okay,  lets just  test my luck. But looking back on LG30 I know how everything will end.

Oh also to people who votes on me you really think that I'm so idiot? Like what need I have had to make previous post if I elim? How many people was suspicious of me? Not many. Why I would make so risky post if I elim? No reasons. But okay.

Let me turn this around. Why would you try to extort a role-claim from one of the players least capable of taking the two talent hit if you are village? Especially since you haven't stated any suspicion of Alvron before this, If I'm not particularly mistaken.

[Arinian]

4 minutes ago, randuir said:

Let me turn this around. Why would you try to extort a role-claim from one of the players least capable of taking the two talent hit if you are village? Especially since you haven't stated any suspicion of Alvron before this, If I'm not particularly mistaken.

I'm not gonna bother myself with answer. Cause that will change truly nothing. Believe me or not is all that you got is all that I give.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

Spoiler

 

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Telar was spending long days at the university again. He was determined to earn and Elevation to E’lir this term, but after thoroughly ruining his chances by oversleeping, he needed to put in a lot of work to make it happen.

So he took on extra assignments, and worked twice as hard on all mandatory work to try and repair the damage. If this meant spending most of his waking hours in classes or lectures, so be it.

Right now he was slaving away on an assignment for his Medica courses. He’d still not gotten over the nausea he suffered from whenever he was confronted with pictures of severely damaged human bodies, but he’d promised his father that he’d follow these course, so he just wrestled through as best he could.

Another student was sitting at a desk next to his. Though maybe sitting wasn’t the right word. Reclining? Lounging? Resting? The student would wake up, study for a couple of minutes, then fall asleep again.

Telar took a better look at what the student was doing. Based on his notes and the book he was currently using as a pillow he was studying the human bone structure. Among his notes was a rough drawing of a human rib-cage with the names of the various bones marked.

Telar looked back to his own work. One of the questions he needed to answer was about the basic complications that could occur because of the various ribs breaking. The diagram the sleeping student had made would certainly be useful for that. He started to reach over to the other students notes. The boy was asleep, so he wouldn’t notice that the note had gone missing, and judging by his clothing he was a Noble, so it wasn’t like he needed to rush through his study anyway.

‘It is human nature to always find justification for his actions, no matter how selfish and unjustifiable that action is.’ Telar sighed and pulled his hand back. The one Medica course he actually enjoyed was psychology, but it did make fooling yourself quite difficult.

Telar reached out to the other student again, and gently shook his shoulder o wake him up. “Hey, I’m sorry to wake you, but I’d noticed we are working on something similar. Maybe if we help each-other out , we can both go home early and get some proper rest.” Telar offered his hand to the other student. “I’m Telar Pike, by the way.”

@Hemalurgic_Headshot.

I'll try to get some more analysis up tomorrow.

Noremac's head shot up. He blinked several times and glanced around through groggy eyes. "Hello? Who's there?" He called out. Then he turned to his side. There was another student, who was looking at him with a mixture of confusion and concern. Noremac quickly straightened himself, hastily fixed his hair, and nodded courteously his fellow student.

"Oh hello, it is quite nice to meet you. I'm Noremac, by the way. Noremac Quwester. Is that Physicks? What a coincidence! I'm working on the same thing. Perhaps, maybe, would could help each other out?"

[Alvron he/him]

29 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I made large answer but site messed up it. So, okay,  lets just  test my luck. But looking back on LG30 I know how everything will end.

Good times.  Good times.  Who knows, maybe the Gods of Luck and Chance favor you this time.  

17 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I'm not gonna bother myself with answer. Cause that will change truly nothing. Believe me or not is all that you got is all that I give.

Believe you on what?  You haven't given us anything to believe you on.  I like you Ari.  I think you are a great addition to our community but you really need to flesh out your thoughts a little more.

Edited May 5, 2017 by Alvron

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Gah. I should be asleep.

Having reread through this cycle, I should put some thoughts up on Arinian.

Arinian has made eleven posts up to where I've analysed, but a number of these are irrelevant or merely humourous. I do not have the energy to go through them all.

I would draw attention to the following posts, through. 

In his third post (124), in T1M2, Arinian declared that we learnt nothing important, that the T1M1 voting was a mess, and that PK shouldn't have started it, despite taking part in the lynch himself, voting on Silverblade In post 102. This could be explained by further reflection, but is worth noting.

The next part worth considering are his votes on Stick and Brightness in T1M2 (post 194). On the basis of votes on himself, he votes on Stick and Brightness to reduce the chances of his getting expelled, but after Stick tells him he's not staying at the Golden Pony, withdraws votes on both of them in post 199. This makes absolutely no sense to me. Either the votes were to reduce the chances of his expulsion/punishment on the horns, in which case Stick's announcement would have been welcome, or they were to reduce tuition, in which case he only needed one vote, and in which case Arinian's original explanation of his votes makes no sense. @Arinian, why were you inconsistent here?

Whilst I'll certainly consider your explanation, for now, Arinian.

[Sart he/him]

Titud began to pace around the room. His term was nearly gone. He had gone to Imre this month to potentially gain more funds through contracts. Unfortunately, most of them were impossible, terrible jokes, or both. He needed to analyze what data he had available, especially if he was going to die on the streets.

4 hours ago, Straw said:

@A Joe in the Bush Your wish is granted! Arinian Arinian. I'm making graphs because I don't have many opinions and I feel that data is useful to the village.

Here's your requested graph:

People, feel free to ask me to make a certain graph for you.

The chart Straw had made would be useful. Titud wanted to maximize the village's potential for the upcoming terms. Even if he himself died, he wanted the campus to be efficient. Becoming a Master was a great power, that they could use to great effect. However, the campus had not evenly divided itself.

First, he took note of Orlok's and STINK's status. They had been elevated twice. STINK had been publicly claiming Linguistics for a while, so Titud decided to examine that field.

Suppose someone else, called Player X, was also trying to compete with STINK for Linguistics. For the first term, both Player X and Stink would be investing in Linguistics 10 points each. Stink was chosen the first night. That had a 50% chance of happening, so that was not unusual. Stink would of course lose 5 EP in this deal. Now suppose that both Player X and Stink continue to fight over Linguistics. Player X can invest 5 points, while Stink only has 4. Thus, Player X would have 15 points, while Stink would only have 9. That means that Stink would have a 37.5% chance of getting Linguistics again. And that's assuming that only one person went into the field. If two other people went in, then Stink would have a much more uphill battle. If Stink got voted for, then the probability continues to get smaller (was Stink voted for? I know he didn't get put on the Horns, but I can't find a vote count)

Where this got particularly interesting was Locke Alveron (Orlok). Locke had been advanced twice, in whatever fields he had chosen. That was especially grievous, as he had been put on the Horns. If he had spread out his EP, then there would have been a good chance that he had lost some in one field. That would make his points even less, which would continue to lower the probabilities. Therefore, Sart suspected that Orlok had found a field that no one else had gone in. @OrlokTsubodai what field have you been studying in?

There was also the matter of the missing elevation. It could be from the field that Sart had invested in, but it would be an odd possibility.

@Elbereth Can living on the streets make the promotion action fail? Also, can you be elevated while in Imre? What about if you're not attending the university that term?

If Sart was truly the only person in his field, then the math did not add up. He had invested 5 EP the first month, but had forgotten to send in actions the second. So, he had gotten lucky, and his EP was reduced down to 0. The last month, he had added 4 EP to the same field. However, he had not been promoted, so there were only two possibilities. Either his promotion failed, because he was out on the streets, or someone else had invested in his field. It hardly mattered. Sart needed a break. Perhaps then he could finally begin scanning for Skindancers. "If I don't die first..." he muttered under his breath.

Edited May 6, 2017 by Sart
Greened out vote

[Elbereth she/her]

Elevation is an action that the Master takes, not that you take, so no. 

You can be elevated while in Imre or while not attending. 

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Sart, I'm a Re'lar in Sympathy, with Malignant Sympathy Protection and Malfeasance. Not sure why being elevated warrants a vote, given I'm a Cealdish commoner, and have already been on the horns. I'll be lucky if I can afford tuition at all this turn, let alone if I end up on the horns again.

[Straw he/him]

Listen, Orlok, I'm suspicious of Arinian because of how he was trying to get info on elevations. I don't know why you're voting on me, as there are many villagers who have expressed fewer opinions than me. I personally think that what fields people go into is not particularly indicative of their alignment because all fields have bonuses for both alignments. That enough for you Orlok? Because I cannot afford to be taken onto the Horns.

[queensteph she/her]

4 hours ago, Alvron said:

Whoever said I wasn't interested in the game?  I am very much interested just likely not in the way you think.  Mage, Burnt and Hael hydra  are all playing and I have something to settle with each one.  I am a little upset that both Mage and Hael hydra  are insane as it removes some of the fun but I'm sure I can find something interesting to do to them.

If you think I was uninterested in game by way of the back and forth post of me and Burnt then know that that was purely to lower my post:PM ratio. 

And if you think I'm going to share my field of study with you in a PM because you voted on me, then you don't know me at all.  PM safety is one of my hallmarks.  But if you want to play that game then let's have some fun.  Ari, Ari.  Let us both go on the horns and see which of us the Gods of Luck and Chance favor more.

(Edit :Boldness mine) I'm gonna have to trademark that  (totes jk)

I don't get the whole bandwagon thing on Arinian, although I do think it wasn't the best way to ask someone what they're studying (since it should be the students decision on whether to share their info and to whom), I don't see why it's making everyone seem butthurt. Not enough to warrant 8(?) votes on him. To me it just seems like he was tired of feeling like he's in the dark (although we all basically are since it's only M2). Everyone at least kindof gave a reason for their vote though, except for Straw. Until Orlok placed a vote on him and even then to me Arinian didn't really seem to be "trying to get info on elevations" per say, more like he just wanted information of any kind to help along his analysis. It could be seen as suspicious, I have to agree, but not so suspicious where almost every active player votes on him. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts more on why they chose to cast a complaint on Ari.

 

Edit: I'll try to get another RP up before the turn is over!

Edited May 6, 2017 by queensteph

[Sart he/him]

Hmm... Orlok. Well, that gives more information. It's interesting that Wilson immediately jumped to Sympathy as being the most likely candidate for only having one person in it. @little wilson Why did you post that Sympathy was likely to not have anyone studying it? It seems to be a very useful role, especially mommet-making. I had assumed that it would be heavily invested in, so I didn't bother with it. What made you think that it would be empty?

Edited May 6, 2017 by Sart
Greened out vote

[little wilson she/her]

LG 18 and the fact that either no one invested in it the whole game, or very few did. I imagine that's why Orlok picked it: he remembered the lack of interest and knew he could make it work for him. The fact that he's been elevated twice indicates that he is indeed one of the only players, if not the only, going for that field. Sart.

[queensteph she/her]

Vote Tally:

Drake(1): STINK

Stick(1): STINK

Alvron(2): Arinian*2

Stink(1): Drake

Arinian(8): Cluny, Jondesu, HH, Alvron*2, Straw*2, Orlok

Straw(3): Joe In The Bush, Orlok, Steph

Orlok(1): Sart

Wilson(1): Sart

Sart(1): Wilson

 

I was just going to add this to my previous post, but Sart and Wilson both posted as I was making it. So it's updated now.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Okay well...I want to be elevated too please  

This has been an interesting turn so far..finally people are voting on a common suspicion! I was reading through the thread when I came to Arinian's post asking Alv to share info in PMs and I was like ok but then he said he would remove his vote "if" he shared and I was like "whoa, that is not okay. Isn't that like blackmail?" And then I continued on the thread and was like yup it's not just me lol Arinian

@queensteph why are you defending Arinian when everyone is upset with him for a good reason? Shouldn't we be trying to vote and expel our biggest suspicions? Even if he was just trying to get info, voting on someone and then saying you will remove the vote if they share info with you, is not the way a student should do things. He may be innocent but it sure looks fishy to me. He's no more lost when it comes to info than the rest of us. 

I will be back with a more extensive analysis and RP in a bit.