[OB] Who's the Copycat Murderer?

[Calderis he/him]

9 minutes ago, robardin said:

Fact #1: a ruthless and cold-blooded killer is in Urithiru, willing to kill an innocent person in a grisly and very specific manner, to achieve a specific aim.

We don't knot that Perel was an innocent person, or that the killer has a specific goal. 

12 minutes ago, robardin said:

There is also the remote possibility that the Second Killer is not in either group, but is someone who was already in Urithiru who saw Sadeas' body before its discovery without seeing the actual murder, and just disappeared without informing anybody else. Until we see any reason for anybody to have done this, let's ignore this possibility as pointless.

12 minutes ago, robardin said:

Mraize is the most likely killer, and the motive remains unclear.

These statements are contradictory. 

14 minutes ago, robardin said:

On the other hand

-snip-

look for someone whose behavior reveals that they ALSO know the killer was not the same, and you've found someone who knows who killed Sadeas.

I agree. 

And yeah... The crazy Adolin theory is straight out of a amateur novel. No way. 

[+robardin he/him]

Just now, Calderis said:

These statements are contradictory. 

Do you think Mraize's motives are obvious, if it's him?

The most likely reason is to gain leverage on Shallan - which only works if Mraize saw the murder occur. (Which I think is the most likely.)

But it's still also possible that Mraize doesn't know it's Adolin, and was the putative person who found the body before its discovery by Bridge Four/Sadeas' corps, and didn't report it to anyone - that is, nobody not in the Ghostbloods. And that the conclusion of whatever the Ghostblood's motives are, which we don't really know, was "do something to flush out the real killer", which this act qualifies as, in a very Ghostbloody way.

As for Perel possibly not being innocent, I meant innocent of deserving death at this particular time, at that particular place (Urithiru), and in this manner. It seems pretty clear he was used primarily as a prop to send a message. He'd never even appeared in SA in any capacity before, right? So him turning out to have been "secretly involved in something all along" would be kind of terrible writing?

[Calderis he/him]

21 minutes ago, robardin said:

Do you think Mraize's motives are obvious, if it's him?

Eh, I don't think it's him, but my point was only that Mraize being most likely contradicted your exclusion of a member not in either Bridge Four or Sadeas' soldiers. 

As for Perel and the circumstances and place of his death... This is actually making me question if we're on the right track with anyone's guesses. 

I think this Perel is the same as the one mentioned in the battle of Narak. He's one of Sebarial's soldiers, but Sebarial brought his troops to the plains. The treading water comment, and the placement of the body makes it seem linked to the "treading water" comment. 

So the killer would need to both know that Adolin is Sadeas' killer, and have been present to hear the comment pass between him and Adolin. Who that could be I have no idea. 

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

Doing the second murder to flush out the first murderer really doesn't convince me. Say, what if Shallan had killed Sadeas. He was going to be a threat to the KR, she is a KR. Motive. Would she bat an eye at the investigation? Nope. 

The one thing that I'm becoming more convinced is, I'll be shocked if the reasoning/plot of whoever did the murder works. The only thing that this is showing is how it could be good or bad for nearly everyone depending on how its spun. And far too much randomness is involved in that, as well as the control and abilities of too many people.

Then again...maybe its just us 17th Shard at it again .

[Sliverofnone]

I'm also going to go with 'other' on this one. Whoever is responsible is definitely trying to get Adolin's attention. I definitely think that Renarin may know what is happening, but I don't think the killer is going to be an obvious guess.

I think this is going to introduce a new plot line into the story, and I think at the end of this we will find out if Adolin is to become a Radiant or not. I think that this will drive Adolin toward ultimately becoming a radiant or surgebinder at least, but something bad must happen to him first. Every other radiant that we have met is damaged somehow, but not Adolin, so something must happen, and I think its unrelated to the characters we've met so far.

[Varenus]

The culprit is obviously tower voodoo. 

Seriously though, based on the introduction for Oathbringer it seems that some of the Knights Radiant were up to no good.

Maybe evil odium spren now haunt the place. 

[maxal she/her]

Something important to remember: Brandon confirmed there were no witnesses. Hence, Mraize or anybody did not witness Adolin murder Sadeas: no one knows he did it. Thus, the only individuals who had access to the crime scene and the body were: the Sadeas's guards, Bridge 4, Dalinar, Aladar, Sebrarial, Palona, Renarin, Dalinar and... Ialai who was fetched right after we finished reading chapter 3. So while it isn't impossible someone else "accidentally" found the body, kept it to himself because he is a member of a secret society and then went to devise a plan to do "I don't know what with it", it is highly improbable. The Sadeas's guards did state it: the tower is huge, complicated and easy to get lost into. They couldn't trace back their Highprince for a full day, thus to think Mraize found it really isn't the most probable theory right now.

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

Its not too wild a stretch to imagine one of Sadeas guards belongs to the Ghostbloods. Or any secret society. Its possible we should also add Diagram in as suspects, also have agents everywhere, and with Szeth out...they have nearly zero possibility of murdering Dalinar.

[maxal she/her]

2 hours ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

Its not too wild a stretch to imagine one of Sadeas guards belongs to the Ghostbloods. Or any secret society. Its possible we should also add Diagram in as suspects, also have agents everywhere, and with Szeth out...they have nearly zero possibility of murdering Dalinar.

But improbable. It does not make for a good plot twist.

[Calderis he/him]

1 hour ago, maxal said:

But improbable. It does not make for a good plot twist.

I don't personally disagree with this, but obviously a good chunk of people do.

[+robardin he/him]

14 hours ago, maxal said:

Something important to remember: Brandon confirmed there were no witnesses. Hence, Mraize or anybody did not witness Adolin murder Sadeas: no one knows he did it. Thus, the only individuals who had access to the crime scene and the body were: the Sadeas's guards, Bridge 4, Dalinar, Aladar, Sebrarial, Palona, Renarin, Dalinar and... Ialai who was fetched right after we finished reading chapter 3. So while it isn't impossible someone else "accidentally" found the body, kept it to himself because he is a member of a secret society and then went to devise a plan to do "I don't know what with it", it is highly improbable. The Sadeas's guards did state it: the tower is huge, complicated and easy to get lost into. They couldn't trace back their Highprince for a full day, thus to think Mraize found it really isn't the most probable theory right now.

Are you suggesting Ialai committed the Second Murder herself, personally? Would she, a middle-aged woman, be physically capable of doing that to a trained officer, in what was clearly a prolonged struggle? Because if it wasn't her doing it personally while being the one who saw Sadeas' body in its original arrangement, then I don't think commissioning the murder by proxy assassin wouldn't be a good enough basis. I can't see a verbal description of things being good enough for as exact a duplication as the eyewitnesses describe.

I agree that if Mraize did it, it was because he was there to see it happen, not that he somehow stumbled upon Sadeas' body after the fact and decided to monkey around; and that if he wasn't there to see it, there is no real reason to suspect his or the Ghostblood's involvement in Murder #2. Not enough of a rationale to go on, unless we get some more info later.

However, I am not 100% sold on reading into Brandon's comment that  "there were no witnesses [at all]", if the comment was this one: (sorry for quoting an indirect quote, but after a few minutes of looking at the comments on the Tor website under the Oathbringer preview Chapters 1-3, and even 4-6, I didn't see anything posted by Brandon?) -

Quote

someone asked Brandon if Dalinar will punish Adolin, to which he answered Dalinar does not know, nobody knows, but he would if he did.

It could be that the context of "nobody" means "nobody in the Alethi camps" (i.e., nobody from either Dalinar's or Sadeas/Ialai's factions). After all, if having the reader wonder who might know about Adolin's actions and how were going to be a significant point in Oathbringer (and to me it SHOULD be, at this point of the story - I love that we're having this discussion!), he wouldn't just come out and say "no, don't worry about that angle, move along". And technically, I would say, he didn't do that.

On the other hand, if Brandon truly did NOT mean that to be a significant part of reading Oathbringer, he might well feel free to drop that kind of an offhand statement in the comment section of an internet discussion. That's not sarcasm, that genuinely is something I think he would do. So, I certainly can't rule it out, either.

 

Edited September 15, 2017 by robardin

[DSC01 he/him]

You know, I had been thinking about this question in terms of the implications of the killing in the public eye, and I may be wrong in doing so.

@maxal noted that everyone was ready to forget about Sadeas until the second murder happened. I disagree. I think that no one in Dalinar's circle cared much about it, but that surely the entirety of the Sadeas camp was shouting for Kholin blood, and others must suspect someone from the Kholin camp as well. Most of the other highprinces tend to be fickle and foolish, and a murder accusation--even if impossible to prove--could damage Dalinar's reputation pretty seriously.

I therefore found it very unlikely that Ialai was behind this second murder. The man killed was an ally of Kholin, and everyone assumes that he was killed by the same person as Sadeas. That being the case, it makes it seem like whoever killed Sadeas must not have been doing so for political reasons. Some have made the case that the copycat murder (perhaps murders, in the future) are intended to stir up the guilt of whoever killed Sadeas--yes, I know that we  know it is Adolin, but Ialai doesn't--and trip them up enough to get a confession.

The one possibility that I didn't consider--and I feel dumb now--is that Ialai is behind the other murder, but she assumes that the Kholins were behind Sadeas's death by assassination. The murder is supposed to be payback (in which case, more are surely to come, since she won't consider a random Sebarial man as equal to Sadeas), and staging the body to look like Sadeas is supposed to send a message to Daliner et al that this is a revenge killing. Maybe this was never supposed to manipulate anyone's thinking, and it was intended as direct reprisal that Dalinar was expected to immediately understand as such.

It is possible that Ialai will realize that Dalinar really has no idea who killed Sadeas and genuinely thinks that they have a serial killer randomly killing people on their hands. This could actually help Adolin out because she will then turn her focus from the Kholins, never realizing that it could have been a crime of passion and not a deliberate assassination.

[mariapapadia she/her]

I think we might be focusing too much only on the few chapters we've seen so far ? We only saw 3 chapters from Dalinar's perspective before the second murder, so I don't think everyone forgot about it, but there were other things happening so maybe that's why the murder investigation didn't get covered more. 

I also don;t think that the motive and the killer are completly unrelated to the identity of the victim, otherwise why would it refer to the victim by his name and not just " a soldier " from Sebarial's army ? I belive there might be a more complex plot, so this is why I would base my guess on "Others".

While some arguments might be plausible in Ialai's favor, it feels a little too obvious and .. maybe not that exciting for the story ? I realise these are not enough motives to dismiss Ialai, but most of the evidence pointing to her is circumstantial. But in all fairness so it is for everyone else.

Edited September 15, 2017 by mariapapadia

[TheDoomsday he/him]

I may as well throw in my 2 cents.

I only read the chapters yesterday, and the murder really intrigued me. The rifts between Adolin and his family that may happen because of this will make for some juicy reading .

That said, I don't think the copycat murderer is Ialai. That is the dominant theory, but it just seems to obvious to me.

When I read the scene, I was somehow reminded of the murders in The Rithmatist. A series of strange murders that were done by a person that nobody suspected.

I also believe that there will be more murders. Just 1 copy isn't enough.

I don't think I really got anywhere with this post...

[heridfel]

5 hours ago, DSC01 said:

You know, I had been thinking about this question in terms of the implications of the killing in the public eye, and I may be wrong in doing so.

@maxal noted that everyone was ready to forget about Sadeas until the second murder happened. I disagree. I think that no one in Dalinar's circle cared much about it, but that surely the entirety of the Sadeas camp was shouting for Kholin blood, and others must suspect someone from the Kholin camp as well. Most of the other highprinces tend to be fickle and foolish, and a murder accusation--even if impossible to prove--could damage Dalinar's reputation pretty seriously.

I think that you are overestimating the stability of the Alethi political structure. The requirement for becoming a Highprince is essentially having enough power to get people to call you a Highprince. I think that "Sadeas' camp", left without an heir, would quickly devolve into the lesser Brightlords who were under him trying to take on his role.

For the challenges of trying to maintain a dynasty in Alethkar, look no further than House Kholin. Elkohar is the son of the first king in modern history, and is showing all of the problems associated with the ruler changing from a great man and powerful warlord to his son, who is not nearly so impressive. There are plenty of people who have a living memory of his father, which would normally help to find support for the heir, but it's taking Dalinar to keep the whole thing from fracturing. It doesn't help that he's responsible for some of those fractures, but that's who Dalinar is.

Edited September 15, 2017 by heridfel

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

16 minutes ago, heridfel said:

I think that you are overestimating the stability of the Alethi political structure. The requirement for becoming a Highprince is essentially having enough power to get people to call you a Highprince. I think that "Sadeas' camp", left without an heir, would quickly devolve into the lesser Brightlords who were under him trying to take on his role.

For the challenges of trying to maintain a dynasty in Alethkar, look no further than House Kholin. Elkohar is the son of the first king in modern history, and is showing all of the problems associated with the ruler changing from a great man and powerful warlord to his son, who is not nearly so impressive. There are plenty of people who have a living memory of his father, which would normally help to find support for the heir, but it's taking Dalinar to keep the whole thing from fracturing. It doesn't help that he's responsible for some of those fractures, but that's who Dalinar is.

Thats a really good post. However, I believe the problem was in having Elhokar be the heir in the first place. If Dalinar had become king after the death of Gavilar, its quite likely he wouldn't be nowhere near as personally advanced (bonded to Stormfather) as he is now. But its quite likely the kingdom would be a lot more solid. Do you see Dalinar as either Blackthorn or current Dalinar letting the highprinces behave like they do for long? Part of the reason things got so bad was that he was letting incompetent Elhokar rule (or unrule) the country until the Tower. 

If Gavilar had just been a highprince, following Alethi custom Dalinar would have become highprince (as it happened) and Elhokar would have been completely ignored as he couldn't get anywhere close to enough support against Dalinar. The mistake was trying to change from a rough democracy (the one with most support gets the title) to a monarchy via a weak heir. 

I despise nearly every part of Vorinism, and Alethi law by extension. But how they pick highprince is one of the few things to which I see the merit. Heir, and if the heir isn't strong/smart enough to do the job it goes on to the next person. It may lead to some ruthless people in charge, but at least they are capable even if hateful .

[maxal she/her]

10 hours ago, DSC01 said:

You know, I had been thinking about this question in terms of the implications of the killing in the public eye, and I may be wrong in doing so.

@maxal noted that everyone was ready to forget about Sadeas until the second murder happened. I disagree. I think that no one in Dalinar's circle cared much about it, but that surely the entirety of the Sadeas camp was shouting for Kholin blood, and others must suspect someone from the Kholin camp as well. Most of the other highprinces tend to be fickle and foolish, and a murder accusation--even if impossible to prove--could damage Dalinar's reputation pretty seriously.

I therefore found it very unlikely that Ialai was behind this second murder. The man killed was an ally of Kholin, and everyone assumes that he was killed by the same person as Sadeas. That being the case, it makes it seem like whoever killed Sadeas must not have been doing so for political reasons. Some have made the case that the copycat murder (perhaps murders, in the future) are intended to stir up the guilt of whoever killed Sadeas--yes, I know that we  know it is Adolin, but Ialai doesn't--and trip them up enough to get a confession.

The one possibility that I didn't consider--and I feel dumb now--is that Ialai is behind the other murder, but she assumes that the Kholins were behind Sadeas's death by assassination. The murder is supposed to be payback (in which case, more are surely to come, since she won't consider a random Sebarial man as equal to Sadeas), and staging the body to look like Sadeas is supposed to send a message to Daliner et al that this is a revenge killing. Maybe this was never supposed to manipulate anyone's thinking, and it was intended as direct reprisal that Dalinar was expected to immediately understand as such.

It is possible that Ialai will realize that Dalinar really has no idea who killed Sadeas and genuinely thinks that they have a serial killer randomly killing people on their hands. This could actually help Adolin out because she will then turn her focus from the Kholins, never realizing that it could have been a crime of passion and not a deliberate assassination.

Yes, you are right. Everyone within Dalinar's circle was willing to ignore the murder and to move onto more important issues. I suspect it lured Adolin into a false sense of security thinking he got away with it. How relief he must have been to see everyone pleased with the murder? His greatest wishes were exhausted: he can keep his secret. Nobody has to know, he can remain forever in denial, he may never have to deal with it. I however agree people within the opposite factions were so willing to forget. Worst, the fact Dalinar seems so not pro-active at finding the culprit might give the impression he did order it. Hence, the ploy to destabilize Dalinar or, at the very least, divert his attention from whatever else they may be planning to remove him from power. Kadash's warning was real: I suspect the are those working with the Ardents to discredit Dalinar.

Yes, the murdered man was an ally. This is precisely the point: have Dalinar's allies think he does not have the situation into control. Make them think they were wrong to support him. Switch their alliance.

I can get behind the second murder being "revenge" or a "warning", but I tend to think there are other reasons behind it. I do agree it may be the end goal is not to make Adolin trip, but it may end up being the surprising unpredictable effect much to whoever is calling the shots delight. Either way, if it is Ialai then I expect it is part of a larger plan.

10 hours ago, robardin said:

Are you suggesting Ialai committed the Second Murder herself, personally? Would she, a middle-aged woman, be physically capable of doing that to a trained officer, in what was clearly a prolonged struggle? Because if it wasn't her doing it personally while being the one who saw Sadeas' body in its original arrangement, then I don't think commissioning the murder by proxy assassin wouldn't be a good enough basis. I can't see a verbal description of things being good enough for as exact a duplication as the eyewitnesses describe.

No, of course not. Ialai did not kill the man with her own hands: she ordered one of her numerous assassins to do it. As for the witness comment, well, it could be as you say, your interpretation does sound legit, but it feels rather anti-climatic there was a silent witness ready to strike, but we'll see.

[Rasha]

Most of the people here are overlooking a part of the murder. They try to think how the motivation of the killer relates to the kholin / Adolin, when in fact we are not even sure of that. 

Let's imagine that the killer has an alibi for the first murder (Sadeas), and then decide to profit from it. He can now murder whoever he wishes as long as he takes care of making the crime scene exactly like the first one. It is an opportunity that benefit more people than just secret societies or enemies of the kholin family. Everyone can go on a murder rampage as long as they are careful enough to dress the scene and careful enough to not get caught while doing it. The potential for chaos is enormous and I believe that there won't be only one murderer to catch, but several opportunists. 

[Aminar]

6 minutes ago, Rasha said:

Most of the people here are overlooking a part of the murder. They try to think how the motivation of the killer relates to the kholin / Adolin, when in fact we are not even sure of that. 

Let's imagine that the killer has an alibi for the first murder (Sadeas), and then decide to profit from it. He can now murder whoever he wishes as long as he takes care of making the crime scene exactly like the first one. It is an opportunity that benefit more people than just secret societies or enemies of the kholin family. Everyone can go on a murder rampage as long as they are careful enough to dress the scene and careful enough to not get caught while doing it. The potential for chaos is enormous and I believe that there won't be only one murderer to catch, but several opportunists. 

That's extremely unlikely. 

I do agree that the new murderer doesn't know who killed Sadeas. But I doubt the new murderer is just an opportunist. Everything about it screams "statement." And that statement isn't "I know who you are." It's "This is Revenge for the murder of Torol Sadeas." And they will likely keep avenging until their suspect pool is gone.  

[djammmer]

the 17th shard is my guess.

 

[Salkara]

13 hours ago, djammmer said:

the 17th shard is my guess.

It's like Cosmere Clue:

Baon in the hallway with the shotgun!

No, it was Galladon in the library with an Aon!

No, it was Demoux in the kitchen with a sword!

Edited September 16, 2017 by Salkara
Mobile autocorrect

[Hyarmenatan]

Actually, is there a reason why Adolin is handling the investigation instead of Aladar? As far as I remember, Dalinar named Aladar the Highprince of Justice. Is he seizing the power and authority once again, unable to let go and allow others to do their jobs? This happens so often that it is slowly starting to become really irritating. 

[Aminar]

8 hours ago, Hyarmenatan said:

Actually, is there a reason why Adolin is handling the investigation instead of Aladar? As far as I remember, Dalinar named Aladar the Highprince of Justice. Is he seizing the power and authority once again, unable to let go and allow others to do their jobs? This happens so often that it is slowly starting to become really irritating. 

Politics. It shows that House Kholin is not sweeping the death of their chief rival under the rug. 

[The Invested Beard]

Guys the murderer is clearly....

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Sanderson.

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

12 hours ago, Hyarmenatan said:

Actually, is there a reason why Adolin is handling the investigation instead of Aladar? As far as I remember, Dalinar named Aladar the Highprince of Justice. Is he seizing the power and authority once again, unable to let go and allow others to do their jobs? This happens so often that it is slowly starting to become really irritating. 

He actually asked Adolin to be his liason with Aladar. Basically, as said above politics. Highprince of Information working along with the Kholins and current rulers of both Alethkar and Urithiru.