Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[MonsterMetroid]

I was hoping to read over stuff day 1 would help narrow things down... but there doesn't seem to be much there that I can tell besides Alvron creeps me out as a clown , and I thought that living might be the thief just from RP but I don't think he would grab a crab if he was... but a thief probably wouldnt grab a bribe either.  I haven't played with Orlok before, but I get a villager vibe from him. It seems to me he is just trying to generate discussion and analysis. But I know that one of my big problems in the games I play is that I am too trusting. 

@Alvron was acting kind of crazy in the QF game and sticking out like a sore thumb but I'm not sure if thats the way he always plays so I think that is NAI at least  with what information I have.

@Eternum, @A Budgie, and @BrightnessRadiant I don't know anything about and nothing really stood out to me about them day 1 :/

And me... as elenion pointed out I am a suspect unfortunately and I don't know how to prove that I am village yet.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

So, yep...I knew I could take an item during the cycle and actually completely spaced on it LOL. I had 9 minutes left to get on and submit an order after I responded to a pm someone sent me and posted my apologies in thread for being absent so if I was an elim I would've just checked to see what item I should go for in the doc lol xD darn tho cuz I wanted an item  oh yeah and I could also have had time to submit a kill but ya know I wouldn't be telling you if I did. 

I still haven't caught up on the rest of day 1 so I'll get to that after I clean my room up today. (My room is becoming a guest room for a week, starting today, so imagine what you'd want to do to yours before that happens LOL) I'll be back on this time tho I promise! And also since there is still supplies left I'll be going for one of those this time.

@Elenion awww thanks I'm flattered that I'm hard to read. 

[Alvron he/him]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

I think most/all of us would agree that we need to lynch one of the 6 with no alibi. I've laid out my case for why Orlok should be our target, but I'm not dead-set on him. Does anyone have a player they'd rather lynch than Orlok, and if so, who and why?

Ooh, lynch me, lynch me!  As for why, because it will be fun.  At least it will be if I'm tied with someone else.  Com'on.  Having the votes tied between two of the six suspects is a good idea.

1 hour ago, MonsterMetroid said:

@Alvron was acting kind of crazy in the QF game and sticking out like a sore thumb but I'm not sure if thats the way he always plays so I think that is NAI at least  with what information I have.

Heh.  Play enough games with me and you will find that my style changes every game and that I always look suspicious.  Very, very few are ever able to get a reliable read on me and even then it's sporadic.

[MonsterMetroid]

29 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Ooh, lynch me, lynch me!  As for why, because it will be fun.  At least it will be if I'm tied with someone else.  Com'on.  Having the votes tied between two of the six suspects is a good idea.

Why? is there vote manipulation in this game that we can analyze?

 

29 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Heh.  Play enough games with me and you will find that my style changes every game and that I always look suspicious.  Very, very few are ever able to get a reliable read on me and even then it's sporadic.

Hahaha I kind of figured that you acting quirky  in and of itself  wasn't an indicator... but if you start talking to ruin again *gestures to voting box*

Side note sorry I haven't been RPing I meant to this game but anytime I try I feel like my character comes off a bit... culturally insensitive maybe so I think I'm just gonna avoid it. That and Rping in rithmatist land feels hard in general maybe because we don't know as much about it as other worlds.

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Why? is there vote manipulation in this game that we can analyze?

No one took any bribes so unless a Prepared player started with some, there shouldn't be any vote manipulations this round.

As for tying up the votes with me, it's just fun to do.  Plus one can always see if someone doesn't want to be tied or if someone else breaks the tie and save a fellow elim.  Tying up votes in the first couple of cycles is always a good idea IMO.

1 minute ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Hahaha I kind of figured that you acting quirky  in and of itself  wasn't an indicator... but if you start talking to ruin again *gestures to voting box*

Heh.  It's not Ruin you need to be worried about. 

[Elenion he/him]

8 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

Why? is there vote manipulation in this game that we can analyze?

 

Hahaha I kind of figured that you acting quirky  in and of itself  wasn't an indicator... but if you start talking to ruin again *gestures to voting box*

Side note sorry I haven't been RPing I meant to this game but anytime I try I feel like my character comes off a bit... culturally insensitive maybe so I think I'm just gonna avoid it. That and Rping in rithmatist land feels hard in general maybe because we don't know as much about it as other worlds.

There is not, other than bribes, but Alv practically worships the random number generator. He does things like this for adrenaline rush of possible death.

No RP = no problem.

 

Edit: I've seen the vote-tying strategy work in past games, but if I switch the tie will be between Eternum and Alv. I'd rather have the existing tire between Orlok and Eternum.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Elenion

[Alvron he/him]

Just now, Elenion said:

There is not, other than bribes, but Alv practically worships the random number generator. He does things like this for adrenaline rush of possible death.

Please, it's the Gods of Luck and Chance that I follow.  Not the RNG.  It's far too fickle for my tastes.

[Elenion he/him]

Wait... Alv, if you vote on yourself it will be a 3-way tie.

Edit: scratch that, didn't see Drake's vote. It's already a 3 way tie.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Elenion

[Alvron he/him]

13 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Wait... Alv, if you vote on yourself it will be a 3-way tie.

Edit: scratch that, didn't see Drake's vote. It's already a 3 way tie.

Let's make it a four way lynch.  Monster.

In fact, let's have all six suspects up for the lynch.  Think of the fun.

[Elenion he/him]

I don't think this is a good idea, @Alvron, because there are 2 elims (and a possible thief) among the 6. All an elim has to do is say "I know I'm village, so I don't want to die", and vote on one of the 3-4 villagers in the field, and we have a mislynch. I'd rather we stack up on one or two of the most promising targets.

Vote tally:

Alv (1): Drake

Eternum (1): Jon

Orlok (1): Len

Monster (1): Alv

[Alvron he/him]

5 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I don't think this is a good idea, @Alvron, because there are 2 elims (and a possible thief) among the 6. All an elim has to do is say "I know I'm village, so I don't want to die", and vote on one of the 3-4 villagers in the field, and we have a mislynch. I'd rather we stack up on one or two of the most promising targets.

We have a 4 in 6 chance of a mislynch anyway.  If they do break the tie, they run the risk of being swiftly lynched the very next round.

[Elenion he/him]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

We have a 4 in 6 chance of a mislynch anyway.  If they do break the tie, they run the risk of being swiftly lynched the very next round.

I think our chances are much better than 4 in 6. Even if we assume that my analysis didn't net the thief in the 6, we can still do analysis on the 6 players to determine who is more likely to be an elim. Orlok, I believe, has a far higher chance of being evil than Budgie, who wasn't even on for turnover. Brightness has a higher chance of being evil than Monster.

 

My list of elims out of the 6, by likelihood:

1. Orlok (moderate distrust). I've already made a large post about why he should be at the top of the list, so I won't repeat that.

2. Brightness (minor distrust). Admits to being on at turnover and having an opportunity to put in the kill. I've played enough Secret Hitler and Wolfia with her to know that she can play it cool when she's evil.

3. Alv (very minor distrust). I don't like his tie-the-lynch strategy. Very minor negative read on him for that.

4. Eternum (neutral). Not too much info to analyze. Jon called him for withholding information, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. Subject to change based on Eternum's next post.

5. Budgie (slight trust). I think his claim of missing turnover is legit.

5. Monster (moderate-strong trust). He came up with the idea of narrowing the field independently from me, and so it's partially due to him that we're at this good spot right now. Add in taking his village-ness for granted and there's a good case for him being village.

[MonsterMetroid]

19 minutes ago, Alvron said:

In fact, let's have all six suspects up for the lynch.  Think of the fun.

... hmmm I guess If I did die it would give me more time with the puppers  jk jk I don't want to die and leave the village in worse shape so I wont purposefully try to die... but I can kind of see why Alvron likes this because the suspense is kind of addicting haha. Ok who else is among the 6 then that wasn't voted for?

BrightnessRadiant there we got 5 now 

 

[Elenion he/him]

@Drake Marshall @Jondesu You've both been on and analyzing. Save us from this madness!  

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Elenion said:

@Drake Marshall @Jondesu You've both been on and analyzing. Save us from this madness!  

If this state of affairs continues, I might consider switching my vote to Orlok, as I would rather not lynch Monster or Eternum.

Alvron makes a point of being opaque, more even than I do. And while I respect that, I trust he will understand my course of action, given the circumstantial evidence. He had the wherewithal to make an action order, and I do not get the feeling that he attempted to take an item and failed. My working hypothesis is that he was the one who snagged the map. Granted, the last time I accused Alvron and he created a tie like this, he was innocent, but I fully believe Alvron would be doing this no matter his alignment.

Orlok has done maybe two things that I could see elim!Orlok doing. Also, he is online right now but still has not responded to my PMs  Which in of itself is kind of suspect because the last thing I asked him was whether he had attempted to get an item or not. There are two reasons I am reluctant to lynch him though. One, because I half wonder if he did not take an item as a matter of principle, because he expressed the concern in PM to me that everybody taking items might be gamebreaking. And two, because it paints a target on his back, and while some players might enjoy the challenge and the IKYK of that, I believe Orlok would tend towards a more practically minded tactic if he were an eliminator.

BR, Eternum, and Budgie are also all legitimate suspects, but my read of those 3 is too hazy to do much with it.

I am pretty sure I trust Monster for their analysis... Although the unanimity that everyone has hopped on the idea of hunting inside that pool of 6 does give me a little pause.

[MonsterMetroid]

20 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Orlok has done maybe two things that I could see elim!Orlok doing. Also, he is online right now but still has not responded to my PMs  Which in of itself is kind of suspect because the last thing I asked him was whether he had attempted to get an item or not. There are two reasons I am reluctant to lynch him though. One, because I half wonder if he did not take an item as a matter of principle, because he expressed the concern in PM to me that everybody taking items might be gamebreaking. And two, because it paints a target on his back, and while some players might enjoy the challenge and the IKYK of that, I believe Orlok would tend towards a more practically minded tactic if he were an eliminator.

I was originally worried cause he hasn't responded to my PM's either but I think maybe it is because he is in charge of AG4 right? So he is probably busy with that. I kind of get a villager read from him personally but what are teh two things he has done that make you think he is elim Drake? I will reread his posts though cause if two of you are thinking it it doesn't hurt to double check.

Edit: Just noticed on my rereads of his posts that he did say he was "unwell" which might explain his lack of posts. And unless he has used that excuse before in previous games I'm kind of inclined to believe him *shrug* but I will keep reading back.

Edited February 5, 2018 by MonsterMetroid

[Alvron he/him]

44 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

If this state of affairs continues, I might consider switching my vote to Orlok, as I would rather not lynch Monster or Eternum.

Alvron makes a point of being opaque, more even than I do. And while I respect that, I trust he will understand my course of action, given the circumstantial evidence. He had the wherewithal to make an action order, and I do not get the feeling that he attempted to take an item and failed. My working hypothesis is that he was the one who snagged the map. Granted, the last time I accused Alvron and he created a tie like this, he was innocent, but I fully believe Alvron would be doing this no matter his alignment.

But Drake, you're the only one voting on me.  If you switch I'll be left out of the fun.  

Of course I understand you Drakey dear. You have a solid suspicion to work with.  No one can fault you for voting on me.  However, I would like to point out that I never said I placed an action.  I said that just because I missed rollover, doesn't mean I didn't place an action.  I might of placed an action or I might not have placed an action.

Also, I love your use of wherewithal.  It's so seldom used these days.

[Caesura she/her]

39 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

I am pretty sure I trust Monster for their analysis... Although the unanimity that everyone has hopped on the idea of hunting inside that pool of 6 does give me a little pause.

I was going to say that this theory seems pretty solid, although now I'm second-guessing myself. 

I want to try and be a bit more active on the thread when I'm able to be online, but I'm still having some trouble getting a decent read on a lot of people. I'm going to write up some notes later this afternoon to get a feel for things and get my thoughts in order, so I'll be back after that

[Jondesu he/him]

I would consider switching my vote, but I don’t know that I think Orlok is the stronger candidate for the lynch. I’d probably vote for Alv first, but I’m not that suspicious of him either, so my preference would be BR or Eternum.

[Alvron he/him]

Oi!  I just noticed.  Someone took my vote off Mac.  How rude.  I also don't see why they would do that given they are Village but my best guess is that it was Mac themselves and that's why they didn't show up with an item on death even though they were a Prepared role.

But still, to mess with my vote.  How mean and rude.  And mean.  

Edit:  Yep, the write up itself shows Mac bribing a creepy clown not to vote on him so that must be it.

[MonsterMetroid]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

Oi!  I just noticed.  Someone took my vote off Mac.  How rude.  I also don't see why they would do that given they are Village but my best guess is that it was Mac themselves and that's why they didn't show up with an item on death even though they were a Prepared role.

But still, to mess with my vote.  How mean and rude.  And mean.  

If it was to anyone else he would be doing it to spare your conscience. But yeah to you it was petty and in spite of you

[Alvron he/him]

3 minutes ago, MonsterMetroid said:

If it was to anyone else he would be doing it to spare your conscience. But yeah to you it was petty and in spite of you

[Kynedath]

I get a fairly strong village read from Orlok. The only points that I see against him are that he didn't take an item and that he benefited from the sudden bandwagons against Steeldancer and Mac. His arguments in cycle 1 were generally for the benefit of the village and his thoughts seemed very genuine to me.

Alvron though . . . storms I hate trying to analyze you! Your cryptic speech and sudden vote on Mac make me suspicious of you, and you've done practically nothing to make me trust you. That being said, for you it's business as usual. I still think that it's odd you would only start to take things more seriously when Steel was in danger and a bandwagon formed.

I agree that there are most likely two elims in the pool of players we are focusing on, but the others don't really set off any alarms. Orlok has the most controversy surrounding him, but I trust Alvron a lot less.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ok, Alvron, stop with the clowns! They freak me out!!! 

I would just like to say that my general SE activity is probably going to go down, because I have not been giving enough time to my school work, and that needs to get done before I spend all day one here. 

So, I'm going to try to get some analysis within the next hour. I will also say I think this 5 way tie or whatever is a suitably AWFUL idea. No matter how much you love it Alvron, that kind of thing is ripe for vote manipulation. even if no one took any bribes. Just give me a bit to go through day 1. 

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I've been hospitalised, and may not be able to post again before the end of the cycle.