Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

I checked Eternum and Bard as promised. Eternum’s posts look and sound very village, and I’m not really sure what I was reading him as evil for. Putting him in my tentative trust group. 

Bard is a bit different. He’s popped in only thrice, and seems to be distancing himself from Drought with a poke-vote earlier last cycle. He afterwards didn’t come on at all later in the cycle, despite my poke (though to be fair I forgot to tag him). He’s gone after me the whole game, which probably hasn’t helped my read on him, but looking at the extra Drought vote on me I could easily see Bard as Drought’s Ciridae lover partner. 

So I’m tentatively looking at this:

Strong Village

Rae, Snipexe, Orlok***, Bort, Fifth  

Village 

Eternum, Devotary

Slight Village

Drought, Bard, Alv

Others

Megasif, Wonko, Aonar, Xionehp, Walin, Itiah, CadCom, Arinian

Dead

Elandera, Steel

***Orlok is Orlok and should never be fully trusted without being scanned. Ever. (Plus I’d still like him to respond to my accusation thing from earlier)

I’d really be happy looking at anyone in the “slight village” or “others” category, or even the two people in my “village” box. The only people in the strong village box are those that are basically hardcleared. (I put myself in there. Call this whatever you want.)

Note- I do not discount anyone, in any box, from being the Cthaeh. That will be a tougher nut to crack, but if we kill all the Elims we don’t really need to worry about him because he can only win if one elim survives with him.

[I think I am here. he/him]

Woah! Bort voted for me. Totally not cool, Bort.  Bort.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

On 27/05/2018 at 1:30 AM, Fifth Scholar said:

To get a sense for Orlok playing as a bluffing Eliminator, I read back through QF27, which didn’t really help with my Orlok paranoia, nor my current analysis of him. There aren’t any significant parallels I can draw between that Orlok and this one, so I’m still reading Orlok as village, especially given his helpfulness and general commentary. 

Actually, there might be one: 

So my main issue with this is the assumption that the Cthaeh *would* act a certain way. I’m not sure I particularly like this logic, because each person is going to play being a certain role a different way. This is (supposedly) the way Orlok would play things, but Alv pointed out another way to go about it, and I could mention various others, I’m sure. There isn’t a right/wrong way of playing a certain role that instantly disproves you from being it by just taking one action. I’m actually closer to Alv’s view of things here, as the Cthaeh has no particular incentive to work alongside the elim team to the exclusion of all else. So Orlok bringing this up does not clear him in my eyes from being Cthaeh, and reminds me of similar posts of his from QF27:

(For reference (thinking of newer players), Orlok was an Eliminator in QF27 and pulled one of the most dastardly moves in SE history, getting the Eliminator team to attack and save him twice. The sheer unlikelihood of this led to the village universally trusting him, and these posts are Orlok responding to his only opponent. This was particularly egregious considering his name was literally a variant of Sauron’s, the exact variant he’d used to deceive the Elves before, in fact. But I digress)

So yeah. Despite all this, I still maintain a strong trust of Orlok, though it’s mitigated by his recent statement. I do think that he is in no way an Eliminator, but I would definitely not be surprised post game if he flips as such, and wouldn’t put a D1 bus of a teammate behind him just to pick up trust reads. But as I’ve said repeatedly, I maintain a strong village read on him, a lot of which is coming from our PM. 

I think the first thing to make clear is that there’s very rarely a reason not to trust me, and to ignore Fifth’s repeated attempts to spread unwarranted paranoia about my playstyle.

More seriously, the crux of your argument is the parallel between my pointing to two situations as the only way that it could go. I appreciate that the parallel is unhelpful, but would say that in this game, I hadn’t given any serious thought as to how the Cthaeh would play. Finding myself accused of being the Cthaeh, I had to respond and gave little thought to recursive or manipulative explanations. I would strongly suggest scanning me, though, and having that relayed to the thread. Once you’ve scanned me, feel free to contact me if you’d like me to put you in contact with someone cleared, to relay the information to the thread.

 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Bort, because I've never been voted upon before. I'm sorry for not responding much on the thread: I don't really know much about this sort of gameplay, so I don't really feel I have much to add. However, I got a PM from Orlok that was quite strange.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@xinoehp512, I asked you, as I’ve asked many others, for a role trade - I think there’s a lot we can learn this game from having people prove roles.

[Bort he/him]

3 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Bort, because I've never been voted upon before. I'm sorry for not responding much on the thread: I don't really know much about this sort of gameplay, so I don't really feel I have much to add. However, I got a PM from Orlok that was quite strange.

Then I am honoured to take your vote virginity.  I think I should keep my vote where it is, just for this reason

My read on Orlok from what he has said so far is 'tentatively trustworthy'. I mean, his posts have come across as pretty villager to me, but it is SE. You should never really trust anyone unless they are verified for you.

And now, something for everyone, actually adding to something Orlok already posted - information from secrets I have received via PM (not from Orlok, just to be clear, lol).

Quote

 

The Cthaeth can heal.

Encanis has a limited, but powerful attack.

 

I wonder if this means that Cthaeth can produce the Rhinna flowers. If so, could I order one please?

And the Encanis' 'limited but powerful attack,' I hope this means their unstoppable kill can only be used once, or under specific conditions.

Edit:

Oh! @I think I am here. - Sorry, missed your post when I first read the thread. That was a poke vote yesterday, to encourage you to play, since you've not posted yet. I'm glad to see it got your attention, even if a day late

Edited May 28, 2018 by Bort

[CadCom he/him]

Hey guys! Memorial day weekend has made my posts a bit less frequent than I would like.  I hope to start much better analysis starting tomorrow. But, unfortunately, from the little analysis I've done, everyone seems slightly village, except for like one quirk for most of the people I've analyzed. I don't really want to be part of any lynch train, but I don't want to lose my lifelines due to inactivity, so I will place a tentative placeholder vote on Aonar for trying to lynch the GM

[Bort he/him]

So, rereading the game from the start, and something about cycle one struck me. According to Wonko, it's bad luck in the KKC world to insult tinkers. My joke vote on Elandera was for insulting tinkers in his/her first post. In the rules, it says:

Quote

"A tinker's debt is always paid: Once for any simple trade. Twice for freely-given aid. Thrice for any insult made."

And Elandera died because I woke up five minutes before the end of the cycle, and was too sleepy to think about changing my vote.

So, there you go. Don't insult tinkers, or you'll get yours. All the proof we could ever need.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Looking at the vote counts, specifically the two votes on Snipexe, it seems that players affected by a flutist still appear to have voted as if they hadn't been thus affected. My vote vanished because I was chased by Scrael.

The three players who would have died of inactivity this cycle have showed up and voted which is excellent, though Aonar's vote is apparently invalid and the other two are voting for players that are likely villagers. With a Scraeling Master out there, any of these three, and anyone else who twice neglects to vote, is vulnerable to being killed via vote nullification (unless they're Tehlin Monks). I'm going to be in that latter group unless I vote today, so I'll put a vote on Cadmium Compounder, largely because I want to know why he choose to vote for Steelancer. I will also note that Walin was viewing the thread late enough in the cycle to have seen that Steeldancer was going to be lynched, but the fact that Walin's vote weight was set to 0 on cycle 1 makes it difficult for me to believe he's anything but a Jester.

[Arrae]

10 hours ago, Alvron said:

Wow.  24 hours into the cycle and only 3 (valid) votes?  I can kinda understand as there hasn't been any Elim kills so there isn't a whole lot we can go on.

Bah, sorry about that. My motivation got completely stolen by a fanfic binge. I'll have something up later today.

Off the top of my head, people I might look at: Devotary, Cadcom, Wonko, Eternum.

[CadCom he/him]

To be completely honest on the reason I voted for steeldancer was because he had the most votes other than Snip when I voted. Snip was on my team for LG 45, and died really early. It was also snips first game, so I didn't want him dying so early again on his second game. I felt bad for him. So I voted for the person with the next closest amount of votes.

I hadn't done a whole lot of analysis. I'm trying to do more this cycle, but haven't been able to do a whole lot yet, so my vote is staying on aonar for now, until I can do more analysis.

[Eternum he/him]

5 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I think the first thing to make clear is that there’s very rarely a reason not to trust me, and to ignore Fifth’s repeated attempts to spread unwarranted paranoia about my playstyle.

I've been burned by this assumption at least twice

I played in QF27, Orlok (It was my first game, actually! One heck of an introduction, huh?)-- You can't fool me! Or, well, you can. And have...

Bort, never ask for something from the Cthaeh. You'll get it, and then end up starting a war that destroys multiple civilizations you were supposed to protect, then possibly turn into a mythical creature on whose name nobody can seem to agree on. Fun times! 

Jokes aside. The person I'm really most suspicious of right now is Wonko. I voted for them last cycle half-heartedly, but right now they seem like the best choice. @Wonko the Sane, you have two votes on you. As Alv said way before me, care to respond?

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I was reluctant to do this yesterday, after the torrid first cycle for the eliminators, but Wonko.

Wonko gave me information that didn’t line up with that given to me by my two other sources. It wasn’t that it was differing information, but information put in a strange way, and lacking an important detail. Both other sources mentioned that Encanis was hard to banish, which Wonko omitted. 

More damning, however, is that the Tehlin Monk blocked him last night (having blocked Elantera D1), and there was no kill last night.

[Eternum he/him]

..Bravo, Tehlin Monk. Bravo. This must not be fun for the elims, and I empathize, but.. impressive. Luck factors into this heavily, but I'd like to keep my faith in humanity at its current peak and assume it was pure deduction and skill

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Sorry for my inactivity here- I’ve been in a PM whirlwind and haven’t actually said much in thread. 

I’ll add my vote to Wonko on the assumption that I was wrong, and our Monk is actually really good at guessing targets.  Bravo to the Monk (and Orlok). I’ll point out that Wonko is either Encanis, a Skindancer, or Cinder, as the Scraeling Master used their action last cycle to block Devotary’s vote, apparently. 

I know I was previously operating under the assumption of a four-person Eliminator team, but I realized it could be five if two of them were lovers. Which leads me to doubt the cleared nature of Drought somewhat, I suppose. 

9 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Strong Village

Rae, Snipexe, Orlok***, Bort, Fifth 

Village 

Devotary

Slight Village

Alv, CadCom

Too Little to Tell

Megasif, Aonar, Xionehp, Walin, Itiah, Arinian, Eternum

Lean Elim

Bard, Drought?

Elims

Wonko

Dead

Elandera, Steel

My readslist from earlier, updated with current information. I realize Eternum plummeted, and he’s in the neutral category because I want to reassess him. I shifted the Bard/Drought pair down a bit to reflect my new thoughts on an Elim couple. 

[Arrae]

12 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I know I was previously operating under the assumption of a four-person Eliminator team, but I realized it could be five if two of them were lovers. Which leads me to doubt the cleared nature of Drought somewhat, I suppose. 

Why would Drought's lover, if they were elim, put a vote on another elim and create a tie? That doesn't make any sense. Sure they might gain some trust, but at the same time they lose a powerful role (or what I'm assuming is a powerful role).

Wonko PMed me (2nd in the chain, apparently), saying that Encanis has a limited but powerful kill and that the Cthaeh can heal. Later he clarified that he heard about Rhinna flowers and assumed they were from the Cthaeh, because of what he knew about the KKC books. @Orlok Tsubodai, does that match what he told you?

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Yes, that does, whereas the the information from two confirmed Sithe included the part about Encanis being difficult to banish.

[Megasif he/him]

I'll change my vote to Wonko.

I don't really have any strong feelings about anyone atm so I'll join this wagon.

[Snipexe he/him]

Well what has been said above is quite damning, so I’m going to vote Wonko

[Megasif he/him]

Also, fifth, to answer your question from before. My vote was just to see what happened and if anyone else tried to jump on.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Also, fifth, to answer your question from before. My vote was just to see what happened and if anyone else tried to jump on.

Fair enough, I suppose. I’ve certainly done so in the past. 

40 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Why would Drought's lover, if they were elim, put a vote on another elim and create a tie? That doesn't make any sense. Sure they might gain some trust, but at the same time they lose a powerful role (or what I'm assuming is a powerful role).

Yeah kinda realized this right after posting. I mean, a bus is a possibility, but the #1 suspect for an Elandera bus is definitely Orlok, who I’m clearing, so I should likely drop this train of thought  

[Arinian]

Arinian.

[Alvron he/him]

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I was reluctant to do this yesterday, after the torrid first cycle for the eliminators, but Wonko.

Wonko gave me information that didn’t line up with that given to me by my two other sources. It wasn’t that it was differing information, but information put in a strange way, and lacking an important detail. Both other sources mentioned that Encanis was hard to banish, which Wonko omitted. 

More damning, however, is that the Tehlin Monk blocked him last night (having blocked Elantera D1), and there was no kill last night.

To be fair, I would keep some information back if I was going to pass some along to you as well so I can't fault Wonko for doing so.  You are Orlok after all, one of the most devious players around.  I might be hard to read for others but you give off Village vibes no matter which side you are on.

You sure the Monk is legit?  They might be an Elim claiming to be blocking to cover up the lack of kills.  Or maybe they are the Ctheah and are claiming the blocked kills of the Monk as their own.  Which is dangerous as a counter claim could end their game.

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

..Bravo, Tehlin Monk. Bravo. This must not be fun for the elims, and I empathize, but.. impressive. Luck factors into this heavily, but I'd like to keep my faith in humanity at its current peak and assume it was pure deduction and skill

 As a devoted follower of the Gods of Luck and Chance, I choose to believe that the Monk, if true, has the blessing of Luck and Chance.   May they continue to smile upon you Monk. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Cadmium Compounder, Wonko. From his profile, it appears that @Wonko the Sane has been online since Eternum and Orlok called him out, and I'd like to hear what he has to say in his defense. I doubt an elim or the Cthaeh would fake being a Monk just to get one villager killed this early in the game with one elim already dead, so I'm strongly inclined to believe the claimant is truly a Monk that roleblocked Wonko last cycle.

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Yes, that does, whereas the the information from two confirmed Sithe included the part about Encanis being difficult to banish.

To confirm, your two Sithe informants told you that Encanis has a limited powerful kill, that the Cthaeh can heal, and that Encanis is difficult to banish, while Wonko only gave you the first two pieces of information?

 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

*Sigh*. I never was a very good Elim. Also, we've been unreasonably unlucky this game. Alv, I blame your gods.

You probably should have thought it through before letting the sister of someone called "The Necromancer" join your troupe.