Long Game 51: A Traitor in the Obligators

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'd guess that we just don't have a Coinshot. Also, how is a Smoker any more useful to the village in this game than in other Scadrial games?

Edit: I'll have no internet access for the next 36 hours or so, but I should be back on roughly 5 hours before the cycle ends, so I'll vote then.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Araris Valerian

[Mailliw73 he/him]

2 hours ago, Alvron said:

Well, poop.  Either the Coinshot is inactive, evil or didn't want to kill Itiah.  Or Itiah is the Seer and we cost them another Atium.  Now we get all the fun of deciding if it's worth lynching them again.

In the mean time, Maill.  You publicly claimed as a Smoker, a very valuable role for the Obligator during the cycle you revealed.  You are also a very convincing and cunning player.  I told you when you revealed that lynching you D4 would be the best course of action and here we are.  You have not gained any votes nor much in the way of suspicion making you a great target for conversion.  The fact I'm alive makes me think you aren't evil but at the same time, not killing me would be more fun for you.  As things currently stand you are my best bet for a successful lynch.  Aman and Itiah would be my next top suspects.

So, we, assuming 4 atium beads max, have a max of 4 eliminators now. If Itiah is the traitor, then there shouldn't be the possibility of any more converts, since the lynch would've taken one of the beads. If not, then there could still be the possibility of one more conversion. That puts us with at least 8 more players than the eliminators, though a good portion are inactive. 

I totally expected this. I assume you mean that my role is very valuable to the traitor, not Obligator, since we are all Obligators? If so, yes, I agree. Though I maintain that, because of my public announcing of my role, the traitor has chosen to avoid me, presumably because of this very thing. Alv, thank you for the compliment! It means a lot from you.  I haven't killed you because I can't have killed you. I haven't bothered to send in any actions this game, since Smoking others doesn't seem like a help and I'd like to keep my votes where they are. I'd suggest we look at those cleared from the first couple cycles, as CadCom's clearing means nothing and Fura could then have been chosen for a conversion after the reveal. I personally have more suspicion of CadCom of the two, though after realizing his jumping on Itiah's lynch was probably to stay alive, it has lessened. 

I have this problem with always thinking Araris is evil, even when he's not, so I don't really want to act on that. Alv, I can't read, so I'll avoid that for now. Though we may want to lynch him to be safe in a couple days if we haven't found the traitors. Itiah's thug claim rings a bit less true to me, since one player very openly came to me claiming that same role earlier on in the game, which I think is a very village thing to do, not a traitor tactic. I know that there can be multiple of each role, so Itiah's on the backburner in my mind. I'd prefer not to waste the lynch on them, letting the Coinshot take care of it, but we may not be able to leave it up to them. 

Lumgol rings honest to me. Coop, much the same, though if we have a less active traitor, they may be them. Karn, I haven't heard from in a while, nothing there. Nohadon hasn't said anything in days, so I'd suggest him for a Coinshot after Itiah if we have one. Aman hasn't said much of anything, but he is in another game. I'm wondering if he has any suspicions now, since we likely have a full eliminator team by this point. Gancho seems a bit off to me, but that may be just a difference in play style from what I'm used to. Rath, I've still got that bit of a gut feeling nagging at me, but no longer strong enough to push for a lynch there. Snipe hasn't really said anything either, so I'd encourage him to share his thoughts. Jon, apparently a few people suspect, but I can't entirely see why. Stink hasn't said anything really either. Wow. 

Today I'd probably actually push for a lynch on one of the less active players, considering that no one really stands out to me and I think a traitor that has been lurking and sending orders but not posting would be very liklely this game. So I'd lean towards Stink, Jon, Snipe, Aman, Karn, or Coop. Sorry this is super long. @STINK How you doing, buddy?

[Snipexe he/him]

The reason I really haven't said much is because I don't feel like there's a ton to say. Basically anyone I trust could have been converted from the time that I trust them till now.  I think the easiest way to analyze now is to see how people change from the first cycles to the next. The change from village to elim might mean that they have to reevaluate who they are targeting and focusing on. However it will take several more cycles to do even that, to observe the changes from PreCon(The previous cycles) part of the game to the PostCon (The next cycles), and so I'm not going to vote for anyone yet.

[Furamirionind]

@Mailliw73 STINK was also in MR32, however ended up dropping out of it due to computer troubles. As I dont think they have gotten on the shard since they posted having computer issues, I think they likely may still be occurring.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

@Mailliw73 STINK was also in MR32, however ended up dropping out of it due to computer troubles. As I dont think they have gotten on the shard since they posted having computer issues, I think they likely may still be occurring.

Ah. In that case, Stink. Karn, how about you? What suspicions do you have?

[Alvron he/him]

According to the chain PM I got, Karn has been scanned as village.

[Karnatheon he/him]

Well. Sorry I haven't been very active. Been busy with stuff. Really tired right now, so no real analysis, just some thoughts. Yay for Seekers. But like people have said detections only help us for a turn. Thanks for what I assume to be a poke vote to remind me to say something. I don't know if we should lynch someone just for claiming a role, unless someone had claimed Coinshot or something, since we know one hasn't been active. At least not enough to kill anyone. Other people are more experienced here than me though, so I'll defer to your knowledge on that. I keep meaning to dedicate time to reread everything so I can give some input, but I still haven't. Hopefully tomorrow something with more substance will happen.

[Jondesu he/him]

I dunno, Mailliw appears to be playing an IKYK game with the Seer with that reveal, or rather with the village regardless of their alignment at the time, and I think that’s enough to consider a lynch. If I had more solid information on someone like a positive Seeker scan, sure, I’d go there, but for now I think I like the logic of this lynch.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Jondesu
Misspelling

[CadCom he/him]

The two arguments that have made the most sense to me as this game has progressed is that of Jondesu's inactivity which just so happened to be at the same that we aren't sure if the traitor performed any actions, or was active, and The one against Mailliw. I understand everything that he's saying regarding the IKYK with the seer. "I've revealed, so the seer won't want me, because smoker is a role that they would normally want, but because I've revealed, and everyone knows that, they'll try to kill me." 

But the thing is, that also gives him the opportunity to argue that IKYK, which seems like it has the possibility to be dangerous to the village. Don't get me wrong, I love the move, and think it was a great way to mix up the normal routine of SE, but in this case, my gut tells me that he's on the wrong side of this IKYK.

[Jondesu he/him]

Mailliw has now tried to trick me into revealing if I have a role via PM by pretending to know what it was and asking who I used it on, despite me never even mentioning having a role. That’s striking me as very suspicious. I’ll be keeping my vote for sure.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

43 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Mailliw has now tried to trick me into revealing if I have a role via PM by pretending to know what it was and asking who I used it on, despite me never even mentioning having a role. That’s striking me as very suspicious. I’ll be keeping my vote for sure.

Haven’t we played a game together before? 

[Gancho Libre he/him]

I think I'll stick with my Itiah vote, but that may change.

[Alvron he/him]

4 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Mailliw has now tried to trick me into revealing if I have a role via PM by pretending to know what it was and asking who I used it on, despite me never even mentioning having a role. That’s striking me as very suspicious. I’ll be keeping my vote for sure.

That's a fairly standard Maill tactic.  Works surprisingly often.  Also gets him lynched just as often.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

17 minutes ago, Alvron said:

That's a fairly standard Maill tactic.  Works surprisingly often.  Also gets him lynched just as often.

Exactly. I held off from using it early game because I’d rather we not talk only about my weird tactics and use that to lynch me again. But without much communication in this game, I tried many tactics and gambits to get people talking. Apparently this one worked, though the discussion isn’t exactly what I wanted. But fine. I see that you won’t believe me till I’m dead. Karn. Maill. This is not the best way to help us since we’re losing more and more of the active players but if you believe this’ll help, my life is ultimately worth less than the village. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm sad because I locked Alvron village for the rest of the game in the very beginning but I kinda want to vote for him 

[Alvron he/him]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Exactly. I held off from using it early game because I’d rather we not talk only about my weird tactics and use that to lynch me again. But without much communication in this game, I tried many tactics and gambits to get people talking. Apparently this one worked, though the discussion isn’t exactly what I wanted. But fine. I see that you won’t believe me till I’m dead. Karn. Maill. This is not the best way to help us since we’re losing more and more of the active players but if you believe this’ll help, my life is ultimately worth less than the village. 

^ Also a Maill tactic but not one used often.  And it's one that's working on me.  Damnation Maill.  If you turn out to be evil....

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm sad because I locked Alvron village for the rest of the game in the very beginning but I kinda want to vote for him 

And this is one of the reasons you're high on my suspicion list.  Locking me in as Village that early is just begging for me to be converted or for you to gain a good deal of trust points when I end up dead and flip village.

I'm concerned that there has been very little to no talk about if we should lynch Itiah.  We have a line on a fairly decent shot of killing the Seer but no one wants to take the risk of it being a Thug?

[Amanuensis he/him]

26 minutes ago, Alvron said:

And this is one of the reasons you're high on my suspicion list.  Locking me in as Village that early is just begging for me to be converted or for you to gain a good deal of trust points when I end up dead and flip village.

Actually the thing with that comment was I completely forgot this was a conversion game until a few minutes after I posted and then I found it amusing enough to leave. No ulterior motives, I assure you 

[Furamirionind]

Well, at most, I think it is safe to say there are no more than 13 Thugs... According to what I have heard from other people, no more than 10. This is assuming none of several roles... 9, 8, 7... roleless… 6, 5... 

I think 5 thugs maximum, probably more like 3-4... so a 1/5 chance of hitting the seer? idk. Probably worth lynching ITIAH... I just don't want to...

[Lumgol she/her]

I'll still vote Itiah. I think it's worth giving Maill a chance this game.

[Karnatheon he/him]

Uh, am I the only one really confused by Fura there? I get the last part, about there being 3 or 4 Thugs. But, he's literally just saying numbers. Am I reading that right @Furamirionind

[Furamirionind]

9 minutes ago, Karnatheon said:

Uh, am I the only one really confused by Fura there? I get the last part, about there being 3 or 4 Thugs. But, he's literally just saying numbers. Am I reading that right @Furamirionind

Lol, I understand your confusion Karn. I have been really busy lately, and have had some pretty serious medical issues over the past week or so... so what you got a glimpse of there was a piece of my mind.  I literally wrote down what I was thinking and posted it.

The reason you are confused, was I started assuming every person in the game was a Thug. Then subtract the dead, subtract players confirmed to be not a thug, then subtract players of other roles assuming one of those roles, subtract a couple more for probable role duplicates, subtract some for the roleless... and you see the result before you. A Fura approved estimate of 3-4 thugs. : )

[Mailliw73 he/him]

My thoughts on the Itiah lynch: 

• If Itiah is the traitor
  • We caused one bead to be removed by the lynch
    • If he had 3 beads of Atium, he's at 2
      • He probably would've started using at least one early on in the game, if not both. 
      • If he had 3, my opinion is that he's out
    • If he had 4 beads, he's at 3
      • He probably used at least one, probably 2, before the lynch
      • He probably used it to convert last night or to survive the coinshot
        • either way, probably out of Atium
  • In my opinion, if he is the traitor, he is likely out of atium at this point. Meaning yes he can die this lynch, but also that he specifically isn't much of a threat on his own, but those he converted with roles are. 
• If Itiah is not the traitor
  • He's a Thug
    • He will die this turn if lynchched, and he could be either village or converted.
  • He's a lurcher who lurched himself(this could be a misunderstanding on my part of the rules, it may not be possible to do this)
    • He lurched himself again and won't die from this lynch either. 

Overall, my thoughts on Itiah are that he's suspicious, but that he's not much of a threat. However it falls, unless he is the traitor and had 5 beads of atium(which would be ridiculous), he probably can't do much harm. I'm not opposed to lynching him, but want to see what the other options are too.

My other thoughts for a lynch:
Jondesu. What happened to all those who were voting on Jon last cycle for being suspicious, though I didn't necessarily agree, and now aren't even looking at him?
Snipexe. From my PMs with Snipe, I'm losing trust in him. His messages have been off-putting and one specific plan requires either him or Itiah to be lying because it didn't happen the way it was supposed to. The way Snipe reacted to it, I'd be more convinced of Snipe lying about this than Itiah. Itiah, village or not, would have no reason to lie. 
CadCom. Still mild suspicion, I'd be on board with a lynch there. 
Aman. Uncharacteristically quiet this game, only really popping on to make little comments. 

I'd also be on board with lynching Coop, Nohadon, or Stink, since I'm not fully convinced we don't have an inactive or lurking traitor.

3 hours ago, Alvron said:

^ Also a Maill tactic but not one used often.  And it's one that's working on me.  Damnation Maill.  If you turn out to be evil....

It's legit, Alv. That's why it works. I'm still willing to lynch myself(which is why I haven't switched my vote), if that's what enough people really think is best for us. I'd rather lynch a person that someone has suspicions on for things that happened after D1.

[Snipexe he/him]

9 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Snipexe. From my PMs with Snipe, I'm losing trust in him. His messages have been off-putting and one specific plan requires either him or Itiah to be lying because it didn't happen the way it was supposed to. The way Snipe reacted to it, I'd be more convinced of Snipe lying about this than Itiah. Itiah, village or not, would have no reason to lie. 

Can you be more specific about the plan you are referring to?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

1 hour ago, Snipexe said:

Can you be more specific about the plan you are referring to?

It involves your role claim, so I didn't share it publicly. If you want me to, I can.

[I think I am here. he/him]

I half want to vote for myself like Maill did but I think that might make me more suspicous. But for now I think I’ll vote on Alvron . It was brought up that you would be a good target for an elim conversion, I think the Seer might have taken that to heart.

You have been a key lynch leader for most of the game, and those lynches have (strategically might I add) ended in the death of a bunch of villagers.

Now, knowing the fact that there wouldn’t be many elims in a standard SE game, mislynches happen, which is to be suspected. But the fact that you’ve been leading these... there might be something more.

Another thing, is that even after explaination and defense you still were one of the main voters, which sounds like you were pushing for a lynch. Especially considering how fast that lynch turned on me. Teammates?

And on the Walin lynch, which you led, and then immediately denounced those who voted on you, while keeping your own vote.

I don’t know how much support I’ll get in the lynch, but I want to bring up these points, especially since others have appeared a little suspcious of you even before this post, including Aman.