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I apologize for the double post, but it's been three hours and I finally finished my analysis. I skimmed over most of last night once it turned to talk about the Joe group.

My top suspicions at the moment include Fifth as convert and Kidpen as possible OG.

I did a quick read through of D1, but focused starting on N1, because that's when the first possibility of a conversion entered into play. Since it was Alvron who turned out to be Babaji, I kind of threw out the general assumptions about who might have been converted. Also, since two of their teammates were big targets early, it's not without reason to think they'd convert early.

The notes are rough, and mostly my own musings as I read through. I tried not to focus on Fifth, but there was a lot that just stood out to me about his posts.

Fifth:

Spoiler

N1

Says he’s not reading too much into HH trying to aid Road. Again, seems to try to get suspicion away from Temptation. BUT, he does then name Devotary and Alv as suspicious (distancing maybe?)

D2

Backs off suspicion against Devotary as some others are gaining suspicions. Also possibly distancing when he says he claimed mild suspicion of Roadwalker post-Guest lynch. That “mild suspicion” was the prior post, which said he wasn’t reading much into what happened.

Pushes to get himself lynched. Easily could have been converted attempt at clearing his name without lasting harm.

States mild suspicion of Devotary, saying her stance on Elephant’s ID should be kept in mind while reviewing her other posts, but doesn’t actually review any of her other posts.

**Devotary’s post**

Distancing in case either one died?

N2

The first one (that I noticed) to suggest the conversion didn’t likely happen until later. Also claims Roleplayer, which meant a lot of people backed off on the suspicion.

**Adavantos/Amanuensis post**

The argument for Fifth here is he didn’t take an action N1. But N1 he would have had a passive ability (extra life), and no need to put in an action. To me, Beirst would be the option to submit kills, because scans wouldn’t work on them.

D3

If Fifth is spammer, I doubt Drought is. He also says Rand is focusing on the wrong group of people, but doesn’t really explain why.

N3

He lied about what role he had, later claiming it was a kill coinshot role, not a defensive coinshot role. This easily could have been an attempt to avoid being the target of a village kill.

As for Fifth claiming the Rath kill, aside from what I said earlier, it could also have been Spammers hoping the Joe faction would show up as some kind of neutral, which would allow them to push for removing it and getting the focus off themselves.

Kidpen:

Spoiler

Attempts to cast suspicion away from Devotary onto CadCom, who called Devotary out for being protected (and who later turned out to be Vodiyehi)

Later voted on Devotary, when suspicions weren’t going away, and the clear lynch leader

Claims Chronic Inactive (name makes sense), but the ability tied to it (picking dead role) doesn’t quite seem to fit to me. Feels like a spammer attempt to appear village. Also, note, this came after Alvron’s claim of Tiebreaker (another correct sounding name). Once the standard naming conventions started to show, the elims might have gotten together to create role names that follow said convention, especially if they’d already converted someone (like Fifth, a Roleplayer).

So he apparently hasn’t picked up an ability yet? I was offered something similar to Steel’s ability when the Hero role was revoked, but it was a one-time use. At first, I suspected Kidpen’s claim to be more like what was offered. He suggests here it was a once a cycle, or he hadn’t used the ability. He also deflected it to being able to do it later.

My suspicion of Fifth is much higher than my suspicion on Kidpen, hence the vote.

Also, I'd like to keep an eye on both Snipexe and Xino, partially due to low content and past history of such while elims, and partially because of their quick votes on CadCom during D3.

I'm a little less suspicious of Drought. I realized that though his claim of Code Monkey isn't completely with what we've seen for names so far, it's also not impossible considering Multi-Boxer. Also, Alvron had claimed something plausible, so if Drought were elim, I'm sure they'd have been able to come up with something more along those lines.

Also Fifth, I finally see what you mean by weird voting on D2 at least. That can entirely be blamed on my crazy busy weekend, and not being able to dedicate enough time to the game. I've always been of the mindset I'd rather vote than not. My vote switch was simply because I finally had time to review earlier arguments, combined with arguments presented by Adavantos. We'd also seen several different vote manipulations, and I wanted to avoid that possibility, just in case.

Overall reads:

Spoiler

Actual name
Elandera
Droughtbringer
Xinoehp512
Furamirionind
Young Bard
Devotary
Randuir
Steeldancer
I think I am here.
Fifth Scholar
Cadmium Compounder
Roadwalker
Lumgol
Snipexe
Alvron
Rathmaskal
Araris
Rae
Jondesu
Kidpen
Mailliw
Hemalurgic Headshot
Amanuensis
Sapphire Elephant

 

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Hmmm, with the full explanations from Snipexe and Furami it seems like Droughts explanation fits. It certainly fits a bit better than 'drought is Beirst, and there's 3 people that are redirecting, but haven't claimed for some reason' , so Droughtbringer.

@Elandera, you make an interesting case against Fifth, but can you explain why he would claim the kill on Rath at all if he was a spammer? Because that's the one major thing I'm just not seeing him doing if he was a spammer using the spammer kill, as there was nothing to be gained from it as far as I can see. If he made that claim, and then immediately suggested a lynch on someone based on activity I could see the goal being to guide the village to a mislynch, but as it stands I can't see the motive.

@Kidpen, did you pick up the vote manipulation power? If so, could you demonstrate it this cycle?

@Snipexe, can you share what exactly you targeted cadcom with?

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59 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

@Elandera, you make an interesting case against Fifth, but can you explain why he would claim the kill on Rath at all if he was a spammer? Because that's the one major thing I'm just not seeing him doing if he was a spammer using the spammer kill, as there was nothing to be gained from it as far as I can see. If he made that claim, and then immediately suggested a lynch on someone based on activity I could see the goal being to guide the village to a mislynch, but as it stands I can't see the motive.

He didn't outright say to lynch an inactive, but it was his first suggestion that the spammers might be inactive. It seemed a subtle point in a direction he wanted. 

Also, why not claim the kill? There have been enough kills going around from all sources, it would be fairly easy to claim it as a village kill and have people accept it. 

As for why Rath, it's possible the spammers were hoping the Joe role would appear more nefarious. As far as I can tell, there's not a single spammer among those converted, so they wouldn't know what the role actually contained. If it wasn't nefarious, then whoever killed Rath could claim it was just an attempt to get the truth.

And as for claiming, we've also had a ton of scans out there. Claiming it for one purpose before someone who might have scanned you calls you out for lying about your role that cycle makes sense, and eases people's suspicion.

I recognize all of this is a bit of a stretch, but in my reads, I couldn't identify anyone else who also seemed suspicious.

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8 hours ago, Elandera said:

I apologize for the double post, but it's been three hours and I finally finished my analysis. I skimmed over most of last night once it turned to talk about the Joe group.

My top suspicions at the moment include Fifth as convert and Kidpen as possible OG.

I did a quick read through of D1, but focused starting on N1, because that's when the first possibility of a conversion entered into play. Since it was Alvron who turned out to be Babaji, I kind of threw out the general assumptions about who might have been converted. Also, since two of their teammates were big targets early, it's not without reason to think they'd convert early.

The notes are rough, and mostly my own musings as I read through. I tried not to focus on Fifth, but there was a lot that just stood out to me about his posts.

Fifth:

  Hide contents

N1

Says he’s not reading too much into HH trying to aid Road. Again, seems to try to get suspicion away from Temptation. BUT, he does then name Devotary and Alv as suspicious (distancing maybe?)

D2

Backs off suspicion against Devotary as some others are gaining suspicions. Also possibly distancing when he says he claimed mild suspicion of Roadwalker post-Guest lynch. That “mild suspicion” was the prior post, which said he wasn’t reading much into what happened.

Pushes to get himself lynched. Easily could have been converted attempt at clearing his name without lasting harm.

States mild suspicion of Devotary, saying her stance on Elephant’s ID should be kept in mind while reviewing her other posts, but doesn’t actually review any of her other posts.

**Devotary’s post**

Distancing in case either one died?

N2

The first one (that I noticed) to suggest the conversion didn’t likely happen until later. Also claims Roleplayer, which meant a lot of people backed off on the suspicion.

**Adavantos/Amanuensis post**

The argument for Fifth here is he didn’t take an action N1. But N1 he would have had a passive ability (extra life), and no need to put in an action. To me, Beirst would be the option to submit kills, because scans wouldn’t work on them.

D3

If Fifth is spammer, I doubt Drought is. He also says Rand is focusing on the wrong group of people, but doesn’t really explain why.

N3

He lied about what role he had, later claiming it was a kill coinshot role, not a defensive coinshot role. This easily could have been an attempt to avoid being the target of a village kill.

As for Fifth claiming the Rath kill, aside from what I said earlier, it could also have been Spammers hoping the Joe faction would show up as some kind of neutral, which would allow them to push for removing it and getting the focus off themselves.

Kidpen:

  Reveal hidden contents

Attempts to cast suspicion away from Devotary onto CadCom, who called Devotary out for being protected (and who later turned out to be Vodiyehi)

Later voted on Devotary, when suspicions weren’t going away, and the clear lynch leader

Claims Chronic Inactive (name makes sense), but the ability tied to it (picking dead role) doesn’t quite seem to fit to me. Feels like a spammer attempt to appear village. Also, note, this came after Alvron’s claim of Tiebreaker (another correct sounding name). Once the standard naming conventions started to show, the elims might have gotten together to create role names that follow said convention, especially if they’d already converted someone (like Fifth, a Roleplayer).

So he apparently hasn’t picked up an ability yet? I was offered something similar to Steel’s ability when the Hero role was revoked, but it was a one-time use. At first, I suspected Kidpen’s claim to be more like what was offered. He suggests here it was a once a cycle, or he hadn’t used the ability. He also deflected it to being able to do it later.

My suspicion of Fifth is much higher than my suspicion on Kidpen, hence the vote.

Also, I'd like to keep an eye on both Snipexe and Xino, partially due to low content and past history of such while elims, and partially because of their quick votes on CadCom during D3.

I'm a little less suspicious of Drought. I realized that though his claim of Code Monkey isn't completely with what we've seen for names so far, it's also not impossible considering Multi-Boxer. Also, Alvron had claimed something plausible, so if Drought were elim, I'm sure they'd have been able to come up with something more along those lines.

Also Fifth, I finally see what you mean by weird voting on D2 at least. That can entirely be blamed on my crazy busy weekend, and not being able to dedicate enough time to the game. I've always been of the mindset I'd rather vote than not. My vote switch was simply because I finally had time to review earlier arguments, combined with arguments presented by Adavantos. We'd also seen several different vote manipulations, and I wanted to avoid that possibility, just in case.

Overall reads:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Actual name
Elandera
Droughtbringer
Xinoehp512
Furamirionind
Young Bard
Devotary
Randuir
Steeldancer
I think I am here.
Fifth Scholar
Cadmium Compounder
Roadwalker
Lumgol
Snipexe
Alvron
Rathmaskal
Araris
Rae
Jondesu
Kidpen
Mailliw
Hemalurgic Headshot
Amanuensis
Sapphire Elephant

 

Perhaps my analysis of those inactives will have to wait. :P Your concerns are valid, Elandera, as I’ve hardly been on-point this game, but I believe your case against me cherry-picks a little, and is generally indicative of why I remain distrustful of you up to this point. 

On your note that the Spambots would convert early, this is true, but also slightly IKYK-ish. Converting N1 is a little shortsighted, as your chances of getting a good role are diminished, as are your chances of getting a trusted villager; besides, with the limited data set that D1 provides, unless Alv has particular reason to fear for his life (and I don’t imagine he would), it’d be in the Spambots’ best interest to delay conversion until it became less fraught with the risks that often come with solely relying on D1 information as a guide, such as converting an initially active player who quickly dropped in activity. I think it’s most likely the conversion occurred N2, with the possibility of a N1 convert existent but slim. 

N1: The information I had at the time was that HH was dead, and a spammer, and has defended Road. Seeing him defend an inactive seemed highly NAI, as I’ve seen plenty of Eliminators (actual Eliminators) attempt to pocket villagers that way. That said, I’ve also seen HH defend teammates like that, so I brought it up with the caveat that it might be nothing, and that defence of an inactive teammate isn’t always the greatest idea, and let others draw their own conclusions. 

D2: I backed off suspicion on Devotary along with literally almost everybody else who was saying she looked cleaner after Road flipped evil, and that her vote wasn’t to save Guest; this was before the whole controversy with CadCom’s claims, and her being outed as Vodiyehi. 

It could have been a converted attempt at clearing my name, but it could equally be a village attempt (which it was), so I’m not seeing how you’re drawing AI information from this. In either position, I want to clear my name, so why are you bringing this up? Further, even assuming the Spambots had already used their conversion, why would they choose me? I was scattered and/or less active on D1, hadn’t really contributed much yet, and showed few indicators that I would make a good Eliminator—in addition to the slight suspicion which I was under, I would become a poor conversion target.

Would not expressing suspicion of Devotary help clear my name? Also, I never claimed I was reviewing Devotary’s other posts; in fact, I thought that it was clear that again, without the time to do full analysis myself, that others would use the points I was bringing to light to help inform their views on others. In this way, I was hoping to create discussion with the limited time I had. 

Finally, I feel as though it’s fairly clear the Spambots wanted me lynched, and only fell towards Devotary when things looked inevitable. Characterising a tying vote on me as mere distancing is odd, as is the notion that the village’s top four leading candidates were all evil on the first two days of discussion. It’s interesting that Elandera, who is within this group, is somewhat attempting to deflect suspicion away from it, and towards me. 

N2: In that post, I actually left both options open (a N1 or N2 conversion), and suggested the Spammers were doing one of the two. As this was fairly early on in the game, I’d disagree with your assessment that I’m somehow misleading the village into assuming a false date of conversion, and was instead pointing out that re-evaluation of everyone would be more necessary. 

In reference to your point about Aman, you’ve said earlier that you believed the Spambots had Vashikaran, not Beirst, so your pivoting on this is interesting. I’m wondering slightly, at this point, about an Elandera/Bard team. 

D3: I wrote that post at about an hour past my bedtime, so I never did get to specifying that, but essentially Rand was beginning to focus on inactives, which I felt was a bad idea when so many active players remained alive, and focusing analysis on less-actives tends to kill discussion.

N3: It could have, but I had literally no reason to admit I was lying if I was evil, as I could have just said nothing and continued to let the village think I was who I said I was, and claiming the only kill that happened during the Night certainly isn’t something a Spambot would likely do. The only reason I’d felt compelled to claim the previous Night regardless was because Bard had pressured me into doing so, and with a new kill role I really didn’t want to be tampered with, so I claimed something I figured would dissuade Vashikaran from hitting me. 

To further clarify, my paranoia with Rath wasn’t the Joe claim; that was incidental, and secondary to my true purpose in killing him: I wanted to see if he was using a roleclaim to deflect suspicion from his incredibly suspicious comments at the end of D2 (no offence Rath, and my apologies for your death, but your defence of Devotary did look suspicious), and regardless, with no real details given about the role Rath claimed, I was worried he was using it as a shield against suspicion for those earlier comments. I actually had a kill on Elandera before changing to Rath at the last second, figuring he was slightly more suspicious. Now I’m slightly wishing I’d chosen the other way, as I could have used Elan’s claimed scan to (mostly) clear Rath, but as things stand I unfortunately can’t clear her. 

Edit: I somehow missed your second post, Elandera, but would add that if I was trying to push lynches on inactives, then I’m doing a terrible job of it. I’ve advocated several times for a focus on more active players and to let the Crusader take out minimally actives, and still believe that’s the ideal policy here. 

Edited by Seventh Saint
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You know, I said “upvote me” in an attempt to pull some reverse psychology and not get upvoted. You guys are crazy. 

Anyway, sorry about not showing up/doing analysis. This next week is going to be freaking nuts, I have like 3 tests and general conference this week so please tag me or something if I don’t show up. I’m around, just probably going crazy. 

Game relevant stuff: I have no idea what’s going on, I action blocked myself using my newly acquired role last night, so that was fun, so no I didn’t participate in any action redirection or anything. As for me, without PMs unfortunately I cannot act as a village huh of information and my analysis isn’t necessarily right just because I’m confirmed good. So I’ll just be around if you need me. As for who we should lynch, I have no idea. We are way ahead of the spammers at the moment, so we can probably afford a mislynch. So let’s just lynch someone who will give us information. And now that I’ve checked in I have to get started on studying for all those tests. RIP me. 

Edit: what the HECK. 97 upvotes in the last week? Winner of 5 days in the last week? WHY MUST YOU KEEP UPVOTING SAPPHIRE ELEPHANT MORE THAN ME????

Edited by NotASteelClone
5 days. Sapphire won 5 days. You guys are nuts.
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Alright, I can't promise a wall of text right now, but I'll see what i can do. before I get tot hat though: @xinoehp512, did you change anyone's target last night? Otherwise, the lack of claim for the last unaccounted for redirect could have been the result of sookesiled using your role, and would confirm that that role exists (assuming Snipexe is telling the truth, of course).

Anyway, I believe Meta, Snip, Araris, Kidpen and Walin are the People of Interest for being the last OG spammer(s), if any areleft at all (I promise I'll start hunting for a convert starting next cycle, but that'll be significantly more work that i don't have time for right now).

Meta stated support for the Roadwalker lynch relatively early (when he only had 3 votes, and me and Ada where trying to lynch Elandera), but only voted after the Rae counter-wagon failed. They seem to be punting serious effort into solving the game, and based on their comments they seem to have a village role of some sort. Doesn't clear them from being the convert, but I'm reading them as slight village right now.

Snipexe was aware of why people where suspicious of Devotary during D2, as he said as much in thread. That makes it even more odd why he decided to vote for Cadcom instead during that cycle. Their role and redirect-claim this cycle came after several other people made similar claims, so it could have been fabricated, though I'm not suspicious enough of him to want to risk killing a potential village protection role this cycle.

Araris had been voting on Alv since D1. A D1 vote I could see as distancing, but his consistent vote on Alv seems to be genuine. His lack of strong reasonoing actually makes it look slightly better, as Spammer!araris could have just found a better reason elsewhere when it looked like Alv was in trouble to try and get the lynch of him.

Kidpen's vote on cadcom early N2 looks off, to put it mildly. I did harbor similar doubts, as I asked similar questions to kidpen shortly after Cadcoms claim, but I can't figure out the reason for village!kidpen to vote there. IF they can prove their role this cycle they'd clearly not be an OG eliminator, which makes the cadcom interaction look less suspicious, but if they can't, I'd be up for lynching them next cycle.

I've got absolutely nothing on Walin, which bothers me. He has checked in with some regularity, but apart from a vote on Rath after he'd already been scan-cleared he hasn't really done much.

So, if I where to order these 5 from most to least suspicious, it'd Be Kidpen, Snipexe, Walin, Araris, Metabard. I've explained above why I'm willing to give Kidpen the benefit of the doubt for one more cycle, and why I don't want to vote on Snipexe, right now, so that means my vote ends up on Walin.

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I'm sorry I haven't been active this weekend, guys. Been having a rough couple days. Call me crazy, but I want to see a Drought flip. Whether or not he's telling the truth about his role (which I doubt, for the record) all I'm seeing is problems getting caused by it. Plus there's an itch of paranoia in the back of my mind saying the remaining elims are weaving some elaborate lies to clear each other / get us on a bad track.

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Hey guys. Weekends(IRL) always slow my activity greatly. I'll try to get some analysis in, but I've barely had time to even skim the thread. I should be back up tomorrow though. Unfortunately at the moment I dont have any very great suspicions. So if I dont have time to do a more in depth analysis, I may end up voting on someone who will simply give us more information. 

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Please do not ask for upvotes on any account or for any reason as that is against the site rules.  Upvotes should only be given if there is a post you think is worthy of upvoting.

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@Seventh Saint, I apologize if my post seems to cherry-pick. It was not my intention. The posts I gathered were the ones that included something suspicious, and my notes were why I thought it was suspicious. I also pull posts from every player that seems off, which, unfortunately, only included posts from Kidpen. No one else was setting off my elim alarm bells. It's also why my vote is bouncing around more than a toddler on caffeine. There's no one who seems worth a vote at this point.

There's just been something in the back of my mind telling me that you're deceiving us all. However, you make very good counter arguments. Most of what I thought was suspicious could easily be confused villager. So, Fifth.

As for what role I think is left among the Spammers, I have bounced a few times. It's all speculation, and I don't think Beirst is outside the realm of possibilities (consider me suggesting prior to learning about redirects that Drought might be Beirst), though I did think Vashikaran was more likely. With the Snipexe redirect, at this point it seems Sooke might actually be the one left. I'm leaving each possibility open in my mind, just in case someone's actions fit a particular role. I don't want to dismiss possibilities and have it turn on me later.

Since I should probably vote, Kidpen. I'm skeptical at best about your role claim, and feel you could easily be one of the starting elims.

Vote Count (traditional usernames):

Bard (1) - Fura
Drought (4) - Bard, Lum, Fifth, Aman
Walin (1) - Randuir
Kidpen (1) - Elandera

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I picked up the role manipulation power last night, so I can prove it today. I'll post what I'll move close to the end of the cycle. The specific flavor of why Chronic Inactive does what it does is that a Chronic Inactive isn't around during the beginning and then is at the end. I'll do something more in depth later.

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Look the upvote thing is genuinely out of hand. I understand it’s funny. I get my reaction probably egged it on a bit. But here’s the thing- if my content is good on an anonymous account, then my content on my actual account is worth upvoting as well. I am a bit curious about the greater willingness to give upvotes to an anonymous account... is it just because it was confirmed villager? Is it because I was saying genuinely intelligent things? Because I consider myself a pretty experienced villager, and I say smart things pretty often I think, and don’t necessarily get upvotes for it. Which isn’t a problem, I don’t play for upvotes. But it does annoy me when people upvote anonymous accounts in the first place. Which is why it annoys me to the point where I’m not choosing to use my elephant account unless I eventually need to use my second vote. So please just... stop thank you. If you want to upvote me for saying something relevant, upvote this account. Otherwise, go upvote a cosmere meme or something.

Edit: also if you have that many upvotes to give you damnation better be upvoting Joe and Crimsn for designing the game. 

Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to return to cramming 4 weeks of molecular biology into my head so I don’t fail this test. 

Edited by NotASteelClone
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Well, I don't have the time to type up any thoughts from reading through the thread, except that Bard's posts seem slightly off to me, and seems like the best place to put my vote.

Unless something dramatic changes in the next few hours then I am out.

Sorry I was not more active, but it's been a pleasure playing this game with you all. It was my last game for the next two years, so I'll see you all in two.

Thanks again,

Droughtbringer

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I also choose this guy’s last game.

:ph34r: Zoop

———————

I’ve got very little attention on me, but what little there is I can’t exactly counter. My playstyle is just: Post once per cycle, forget sometimes, avoid the inactivity filter. 

Whether I’m a villager or an eliminator, my inactivity is not a ploy, despite how helpful it is at not getting me killed. I’ll try and be more active if that makes analysis of my actions easier—I’d rather not get lynched because of my constant willingness to forgoe actual activity. Neither of my arms are broken, after all.

On the subject of the lynch: I haven’t read enough to have suspicions. Since Drought’s already going to die, I’ll just throw a protest vote on <color=red>  Bard <\color> for now.

And a message for Drought: F. You were a good player, and I’ll miss you (before I go as well), which deserves a well-pressed F.

Edited by Walin
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I feel this deserves more than an F lol. This deserves a 7 stab salute. patriotic music plays, Steel stabs Drought in the gut 7 times, crying the entire time. 
We salute you, esteemed member of our elite community. sobbing begins we (I) will never forget you (for the 2.5 months I'll be around here) and will always cherish the games we played together (which I can't remember off the top of my head because my brain has been stuffed with information about the trp operon. I'm sorry). Droughtbringer. 

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Ten minutes dearies~

EDIT:

@May I suggest The Only Joe, it's been an immense pleasure knowing and playing with you the last year or so (probably even much longer??? I'm super bad with keeping track of this stuff tbh. I still write 2015 on official documents, sometimes). I know you're going to do great things on your mission. Can't wait to hear all about it when you're back!

Edited by Adavantos
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3 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

3 hours and 33 minutes until the turn ends darlings~

 

6 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Ten minutes dearies~

Why you guys impersonating me? :<

Also, turn has ended, my darlings.

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