Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Alvron he/him]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, quick clarification, you can not use your one PM per turn to add more people to pre-existing PMs.

To add to this, adding a player to an already existing PM is against the rules.  You have to make a new one if you want to bring in another person.

[Steeldancer he/him]

7 minutes ago, Alvron said:

To add to this, adding a player to an already existing PM is against the rules.  You have to make a new one if you want to bring in another person.

@Fifth Scholar  Fifth, look at this color. Isn’t it glorious? It’s readable, it’s an IM color, and most importantly, I don’t have to highlight it to read it.  I just had to make me feelings known on this very important issue. Carry on.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

58 minutes ago, Sart said:

"Answer your own question."

I think it's fairly clear that the answer is that I wouldn't have voted for anyone, seeing as how that's what I did. Along with Aman, you are another player who has criticised the lack of votes without offering what you would have done. You've said that you would have voted for anyone, but is that Ark? Drake? A random player not up for the lynch? I would assume that your plan would have been to keep your vote on me and let the lynch continue as a tie, but that may not be the case.

[Stick. she/her]

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Amanuensis was attacked, but survived!

...ok

Regardless of whether this is a WGG like some of you have suggested, I see this as a win - a villager didn't die, and so the elims aren't any closer to victory than they were one turn ago. I agree with Drake's assessment, it doesn't seem very plausible for the elims to forget to submit a kill N1 so I'm guessing the kandra was unable to perform an independent kill of their own.

6 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

If a mistborn!Kandra wanted to protect themselves on the first night, that could potentially implicate Aman.

Ooooooo 

Anyway, I'm voting Fura mostly because I found their last minute post at the end of D1 kinda off, as I've mentioned earlier, and also because they seem to be defending Aman here quite a bit and insisting we soft-clear him. I think lynching Fura would give us valuable info on Aman's possible alignment, and some info on Fifth's as well. Basically I think that if fura flips elim, aman is likely an elim too, and if fura flips village, I would lean village on aman and lean elim on fifth.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Amanuensis was attacked, but survived!

I have to say, seeing this was such an incredible relief. I always expect to die within the first few cycles when I'm a Villager, so getting saved - and by a N1 kill, no less! - feels really, really good. Especially since I have no idea who protected me.

I'm not a Thug, which means someone Lurched me. No one has exchanged roles with me in PM so I'm not sure if it's one of the few players that messaged me or somebody else. But no matter who it is, I want to say thank you, and good job! It doesn't make up for losing our Mistborn entirely, but it certainly nice to delay the elim's win con.

As for the elims... really? You want to attack me the first night, presumably before I can get my post out on Devotary (and to a lesser extent, Rath and Fura?).

Okay. I see how it is.

Responses to posts this turn and the aforementioned promises, incoming.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, @Walin asked if a pinch hitter could sub in for him, and @Young Bard has graciously agreed to do so! Starting now, Bard will be taking Walin's place.

[Young Bard he/him]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, @Walin asked if a pinch hitter could sub in for him, and @Young Bard has graciously agreed to do so! Starting now, Bard will be taking Walin's place.

Hi - I'm not caught up right now, but I hope to have caught up and to have done some kind of analysis by the end of the Day Turn.

[Furamirionind]

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Basically I think that if fura flips elim, aman is likely an elim too, and if fura flips village, I would lean village on aman and lean elim on fifth.

Why would you lean elim on Fifth if I flip village?

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm not a Thug, which means someone Lurched me. No one has exchanged roles with me in PM so I'm not sure if it's one of the few players that messaged me or somebody else. But no matter who it is, I want to say thank you, and good job! It doesn't make up for losing our Mistborn entirely, but it certainly nice to delay the elim's win con.

Are you encouraging potential Lurchers to roleclaim to you? @lurchers this is a bad idea. Dont do it.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

As for the elims... really? You want to attack me the first night, presumably before I can get my post out on Devotary (and to a lesser extent, Rath and Fura?).

Okay. I see how it is.

Hmm....

---------

Welcome Bard!

[Stick. she/her]

3 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Hi - I'm not caught up right now, but I hope to have caught up and to have done some kind of analysis by the end of the Day Turn.

Welcome, Bard! 

Edit:

ninjad by Fura

Quote

Why would you lean elim on Fifth if I flip village?

Because I’ll lean slight village on Aman then, which in turn would make me wary of Fifth given their interaction last cycle (which I said was probably either v-v or e-v/v-e), as well as Fifth’s suspicion of Aman this cycle with the suggestions of the WGG and all. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

What are the chances of a WGG on N1 on someone under mild suspicion at best? I'd say astronomical.

Well, awesome! Great job to whatever caused Aman to survive.

13 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

High. AG3 is the easiest example and I can pull others. Not to mention that this is the exact kind of move Elim!Aman would make. I again just got back from an eight hour hiatus so give me time to look at PMs and yesterday’s thread. 

12 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Sure, he isnt hard cleared but I think he is as cleared as anyone can be after C1.

Why would he do that though as an elim? There is an SK in this game, where there wasnt in AG3. There are also scanning roles that can check to see if Aman is a thug or not.

Basically, even if we clear an elim!Aman for this, we can catch him later.

11 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Well, that was quick. I guess I'm not too surprised somebody attacked Aman, but I expected it would take another cycle or two. They also survived. Possible explanations:

1. The eliminator team perceived Amanuensis as a threat (which is interesting, because there are also a good few players on the shard that would not react by killing a player they deemed someone to watch out for at the first possible opportunity). A village lurcher (or thug!Aman) protected Aman.
2. The eliminators, including Amanuensis, decided to try a WGG, and presumably had a role to do so with.

Fura: I disagree that the chances of a WGG on N1 are astronomical. As Fifth remind shortly after, it's happened before, and it's definitely something I would do. I have no problem posting this because I harbor no ill intentions or guilt, but if I were an eliminator and had the opportunity to pull off a WGG, I would do it as soon as possible, no questions asked.

Why? Because when I'm a villager, it's expected that I get attacked early. Maybe not N1 but N2 or N3 are very good bets. Every time I'm an eliminator this is something I struggle with. I have to consider the implications of every single kill I put in (I ask myself, in the case someone calls it out, how can I justify the eliminators attacking another person over me?). Honestly a lot of the time I can't and it ends up getting me killed or at least not trusted, so I have to resort to heavy distancing and implicating villagers I intentionally let live so that when I flip there's at least a mislynch or two after the fact.

I'm definitely not hard cleared, and I respect that Fifth is keeping a healthy amount of paranoia. I would do the same thing if I was them. If anyone clears me, I hope it's because of the content of my posts.

That all said, it's not a WGG, and I'm very grateful for whoever saved me. I'm assuming it means they read me as village and worried I might be taken out. Whoever you are, if you haven't PM'd me already, it might be best that you don't. I'm very concerned about the existence of an Eliminator Tineye, not to mention an Eliminator Hazekiller. If they manage to figure out your identity than they would be able to roleblock you while attacking me again to ensure I'm dead for good.

That all said, I'm a bit confused Fura. If I'm evil while not being a Thug, that means the elims would either have a Lurcher or a Mistborn. If it's a Mistborn and they are discovered, then it would be very clearly a WGG, but if it's a Lurcher, the only way the village would know if said Lurcher eventually died. In any other scenario, how would you go about proving I'm evil later on in the game?

I too am interested in the fact the eliminators went for me D1. It says a lot, and I think I've managed to pin down a few villager alignments because of it, which really helps me to narrow down suspects. For example, those who PM'd me in the first cycle, I think have a higher likelihood of being village (spending a PM on someone they intend to kill would be a bit of a waste, no?). And likewise, I'm a bit more suspicious of people who PM'd me after the fact, because they might be looking for even a little information on who the Lurcher could be.

11 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Moreover, I'm pretty interested in the fact that there was only one attack, not more. I doubt the eliminators failed to make a kill. Possible explanations:

1. The SK does not have a kill and thus couldn't make one.
   • Probably because they have infiltrated the eliminator team and meant to rely on the eliminator kill. They are a kandra, after all.
2. The SK has a kill, but they also had a different action they wanted to do instead.
   • This possibility would support my theory of a kandra mistborn.
     • If a mistborn!Kandra wanted to protect themselves on the first night, that could potentially implicate Aman.
3. The SK was inactive, and forgot to submit a kill order.
   • In this case, they will probably die to the inactivity filter soon. The good thing about this possibility is that we'll know if this is true in at least a few cycles.

I too am curious about there being no second kill. I'm glad that a potential Coinshot didn't try firing in the dark. As for the kandra, it's possible they have a limited number of kills or decided to play the long game, as your second bullet represents. I welcome any Seekers to scan me so they can see I'm not a kandra. I'm willing to state that I have a role, so it shouldn't be an issue.

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I think it's fairly clear that the answer is that I wouldn't have voted for anyone, seeing as how that's what I did. Along with Aman, you are another player who has criticised the lack of votes without offering what you would have done. You've said that you would have voted for anyone, but is that Ark? Drake? A random player not up for the lynch? I would assume that your plan would have been to keep your vote on me and let the lynch continue as a tie, but that may not be the case.

Did I criticize a lack of votes, Devotary? I don't believe I have, and I'll admit, trying to paint me in an inaccurate light is a bit of a red flag. If I'm wrong, please show us, otherwise I may end up voting on you, because it kinda feels like you're trying to subconsciously ride on some of the credit I might get for surviving this kill.

20 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Hi - I'm not caught up right now, but I hope to have caught up and to have done some kind of analysis by the end of the Day Turn.

Welcome Bard! I'm very happy to have you!

17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Are you encouraging potential Lurchers to roleclaim to you? @lurchers this is a bad idea. Dont do it.

Hmm....

---------

Welcome Bard!

I'm not, Fura. I've clarified this above. That lost post I made was only responding to the write up. I hadn't read the thread at the time, but wanted to get that info out ASAP.

Edited June 13, 2019 by Amanuensis
Missed some justifications

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Did I criticize a lack of votes, Devotary? I don't believe I have, and I'll admit, trying to paint me in an inaccurate light is a bit of a red flag. If I'm wrong, please show us, otherwise I may end up voting on you, because it kinda feels like you're trying to subconsciously ride on some of the credit I might get for surviving this kill.

Quote

I do harbor suspicion of those who were present at turn over and chose not to act. I agree with the assessment that it was a V/V lynch, which means eliminators would have no problem leaving things be. I find that a lot more likely than Drake being evil and people not wanting to vote for Ark to prevent suspicion falling on their heads for saving him.

Here you suggest that those who didn't vote towards the end of the cycle were suspicious for having done so. I'm not really seeing any particular difference between choosing not to vote towards the end of cycle, and choosing not to vote in general. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Here you suggest that those who didn't vote towards the end of the cycle were suspicious for having done so. I'm not really seeing any particular difference between choosing not to vote towards the end of cycle, and choosing not to vote in general. 

Ah I understand now. I’m not necessarily critizing the lack of votes. What I’m more concerned about is people not even posting their stance when they had the opportunity. Fura at least mentioned they don’t really want an Ark or Drake lynch, which I find less suspicious than being present and saying nothing.

If I were present, I probably would have been tagging other people to weigh in on the two, and if no one else voted anyway or they ended up voting on Drake, I could see myself voting for Ark to save him. I would rather people not Lynch those I read as village.

Since I notice I’m saying I read Drake as village despite not explaining why (beyond the rath interaction) I will go ahead and quote his posts later today so I can point out some reasons why.

For now though I’m at the beach and about to swim. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Alright, that analysis. I keep promising it, and here it actually is. 

First, some quick responses: 

12 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Are you encouraging potential Lurchers to roleclaim to you? @lurchers this is a bad idea. Dont do it.

Given that you encouraged Thugs to claim to you, even essentially threatening them if they didn’t, I find this a little hypocritical. 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

As for the elims... really? You want to attack me the first night, presumably before I can get my post out on Devotary (and to a lesser extent, Rath and Fura?).

Note, before I continue with an actual case on Aman; obviously, if he’s village, then these are legitimate suspicions, but if he’s evil then Devotary is probably clear of being an Elim, and one of Rath and Fura are evil with him. 

Also, hello to Bard. Good to see more activity. @Young Bard, to help you catch up, do you mind giving your thoughts on Drake as you reread the thread? (Totally not trying to offload analysis in any way, here )

9 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

@Fifth Scholar  Fifth, look at this color. Isn’t it glorious? It’s readable, it’s an IM color, and most importantly, I don’t have to highlight it to read it.  I just had to make me feelings known on this very important issue. Carry on.

What was that? I agree with everything you say about this luxuriant yellow I’m now employing. As I’m now using an IM colour, and should therefore probably make some sort of announcement, I’ll note that you technically shouldn’t comment here as you’re not participating, but I’ll let it go if only to troll you more with this shade of yellow for just a little...bit...longer...

12 hours ago, Straw said:

Yay for no kill, I guess. I guess this kind of compensates for losing a Mistborn?

Would like to note a quick suspicion of Straw for this post. It contributes very little to discussion, while appearing to say something vaguely villager-ish. As with Fura’s post following Aman’s attack and survival, it’s also a little suspicious for its quick way of brushing over Aman’s survival, and the hesitant language sets off a few alarms. Village!Straw is still brief, but tends towards concise and relevant commentary rather than “throwaway” posts like these which are good at making somebody appear active but allows them to remain in the shadows. 

Now, onto my case against Furamirionind: 

Quote

Just checking in. 

Hi.

I'll poke Fifth.

Fifth

First post of the game with a fairly standard poke vote. I don’t see anything that particularly stands out here, other than the fact that Fura perhaps could have had more to contribute than a poke on me, particularly since she wasn’t eliciting my opinions on any one thing in particular. 

Quote

I like the idea of the Kandra in the elim team. It is also possible that in that case, the Kandra would have no extra kill? And would instead rely on the elim kill...

Actually, that's unlikely as the elims would have to start killing themselves if they are too far ahead...

I also think it would be too easy for the elims to find an elim!Kandra, though I admit, this does technically rely apon their secret abilities

This post looks substantial, but is ultimately commentary on a completely NAI subject, is confined to pure speculation, and doesn’t help advance discussion in a helpful direction; indeed, it further sidetracks it from the commentary on players and actual roles which drives the production of AI content. 

Quote

Haha, but they cant just out the elims, because that would out them as a Kandra, and they would be lynched as well. (Plus the elims are their source of kills)

Ooh, I like this hypothetical unlikely scenario...

Further discourse on this subject, which again drew the village down somewhat of a rabbit-hole and created no meaningful content to analyse. I’d be fine if this sort of speculation was tied into something else, such as a broader analysis or RP, but the sole focus on this matter is where such posts become detrimental, disfocusing the village. 

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Sorry Fifth, I am getting a village read from your posts, yet keep forgetting to remove my vote.

NAI. I’m suspicious of pocketing, but I’m always suspicious, and a villager would post that just as much as an Elim.  

Quote

[Aman Quote]

I still don't really understand. Are you suggesting a no-lynch, or suggesting that we vote and discuss lynching as early as possible?

I would like to hear some more from Sart.

I am trying not to spend do much time on SE over this week. Afterwards, my health will be better, and I will hopefully have figured out my summer schedule better, so I will be a bit more active here. (I say this knowing my activity probably won't change much either way)

Fifth
Sart

The first part gives me Elim vibes, but only if Aman is evil. This is because one typical Eliminator strategy is to quote and question each other in thread so it looks like they’re interacting and feeling each other out there, and aren’t weirdly avoiding each other like they would, if, say, they shared a doc, and Aman being one of the very first people quoted makes me think Fura is using this strategy if, as I suspect, they’re evil together. Either way, as this is a fairly easy question for Aman to answer, it seems perfect for the sort of mild distancing which Elims prefer.

Another poke vote, though much later in the cycle when enough analysable content had been produced as to make such a measure unnecessary. As such, despite the factors which Fura mentions which may have contributed to this being her only idea at the time, I’m leaning slightly Eliminator from this post. 

An essentially NAI joke post follows which I shan’t analyse.

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My only issue with this, is... Can I talk about MR35's D1? it's still ongoing, so idk how much I am allowed to talk about it...

Basically there was no lynch D1 there as well, and there were a lot of complaints about the lack of lynch D2.

Again chooses to address only Aman with a fairly short question which is easily answered, setting herself slightly against Aman and away from him without actually taking a stance on the D1 lynch. Reluctance to take a stance + possible distancing gives me another Eliminator read. 

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Hi Sart.

Im not going to place my vote on anyone at the moment. I will do so either tonight or in the morning based on suspicions

Edit: oops

{color=green]Sart

Edit: oops again...

Edit again?: For some reason it deleted my removed vote...

Sart

Basically NAI—either alignment would have withdrawn the poke vote. I’ll note that she promised to vote later here but never followed through on this pledge. I think at this point, either village or Eliminator Fura would realise that poke votes weren’t helping and stopped using them. 

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Ventyl is 100% village.
I am 99% certain that my previous statement is correct. I'll reread the thread in a moment and see where my vote lands.

Quickly noting another promise to vote which was not kept. The bulk of my issue with this post is the 99% clear of Ventyl, which she never particularly explains, and which appears to be either pocketing or a blatant attempt to get a fellow teammate trusted. There’s little reason for a villager to have that degree of confidence in anyone's alignment, and I’m also wary of Stick for later echoing this sentiment, particularly as it’s unexplained. I too view Ventyl as village, but not to the assumed degree which these two jumped to. 

Quote

[@Drake] fifth has an interesting case on you. You are also tied for the most votes right now. Anything you want to say to convince those without placed votes to vote on people who arent you?

Fura calls for Drake to comment, which I’d mark as slightly village if Drake is village—I feel like an Eliminator might take the occasion to add a vote here and kill a villager. That said, if Drake is village and Fura did cast the deciding vote, that would have been slightly suspicious, something an Elim would avoid, which is why I’m hesitant on everyone who refrained from voting yesterday—I’m a little more swayed by the “village Drake” arguments, and concede the possibility of the Elims standing aside with clean hands as we chose between killing two villagers, then stepping in with an “I told you so” after the fact. As that’s what Aman has done, that obviously contributes to my suspicion of him, and the attack on him yesterday. 

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I dont want either drake or Ark dead, but I also dont want to last minute vote swing...

Edit ninjad

There’s this post, which is a major reason for my suspicion of Fura and although Stick already mentioned it, it’s worth bringing back up. Unwillingness to be affiliated with villager deaths or take definitive stances on divisive and AI situations are classic Elim tells. 

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Well... that's bad. Lynching MB D1... and there almost certainly isnt a second one unless they are an elim/Kandra.

At least this means we dont have to worry about people claiming MB when they survive a lynch.

If you are a MB, I encourage you to PM me and tell me now. Otherwise i wont trust you if you claim after surviving a lynch.

Edit:

@Fifth Scholar I am less inclined to think Drake an elim, if he was, surely the tie would have been broken to kill Ark... I think this was a VV lynch.

First paragraph, though I viewed it as Elim to begin with for false sympathy, is probably NAI on reflection—a villager would probably share the same sentiments. 

Essentially coercing the Mistborn and Thugs to claim to her is a fairly elim move—as I brought up at the time, there was no reason Fura was inherently trustworthy. 

The final paragraph is neutral leaning village. It’s a good point on Drake, though given that I was tunnelling at the time I wasn’t prepared to really hear it. 

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Why me? Because I dont believe there to be anyone more or less trustworthy than myself at the moment, and they have to claim to someone. Otherwise I might direct a potential MB to them.

If they dont claim to anyone, I will do the best in my ability to lynch the next person who claims MB.

You can speculate on Drake being an SK, but as of now, I dont see any good reason why I should believe that. There is a 1/15 chance that what you say is correct.

I really don’t like the first two paragraphs here—it seems like a false dilemma is being set up: claim to Fura or somebody else now, or be lynched and not be able to claim later. Also, a standard case that we can’t take your word on you being a villager, as everyone will say that, and the alleged confidence you possess in your alignment is not a reason to trust you. 

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Between the three, I think Fura's oddities this game may be an example of Too Wolfy to be Wolf. Furthermore, my knee jerk reaction to Rath pointing out Devotary and Fura alongside him is that he's not trying to hide and thus more likely a villager. But if I analyze that further, it's probably NAI since an eliminator would likely be more conscious of that fact and bring it up anyway.

^This is from Aman, and is part of why I’m considering an Aman/Fura team. They’ve been relatively close for most of the game, and the noncommittal defence of Fura here is another reason that I suspect they’re working together. 

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What about Villager Bucks™makes you biased towards them? Was this discussed somewhere I don't know about?

Which post do you take issue with, and what about it troubles you?

Questions to Snip and Devotary. Mostly NAI, potentially a very slight village lean. Might look for a teammate here if Fura flips Elim for the distancing reasons I mentioned earlier—Snip or Straw would probably be my guess for the third person in an Aman/Fura team. 

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[Drake quote]

Not trying to argue that I am an elim this game, however, the reason I was receptive to a no-lynch last game, was purely because I haven't been in a game with a no lynch. After being in one, I didn't like having D2 basically being a D1 lynch, and I don't think it is a good idea if it can be helped.

Basically, elims get lots of information for N1 and N2 kills, while the village doesn't get much info until N2. The solution, is for everyone to go inactive until D2, but then no one who died N1 will have played the game, and strategically going inactive is the best idea to discourage fun I have ever heard.

Basically, I think no-lynches are bad because of MR35, even though I was willing then.

Although I’m not entirely sure what Fura’s getting at here, I doubt it’s particularly relevant to her alignment (though I give this a very slight village reading for the stance on D1 lynches, though that reading is perhaps compromised by the fact that she never participated in it). 

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Why should the coinshot PM someone? Generally, it would be safer for them to keep a low profile. The risk of PMing a Kandra/Elim is one that I would not encourage them to take. We should know for certain if they are in the game D2/D3 depending on when they make their first kill.

There are reasons for a power role to PM somebody they think is village and offer them a role trade, and despite the risk it is the Coinshot’s call. That said, NAI as Fura could hold this position from either alignment. 

Hi Xino, Who do you trust the most, and who do you trust the least?

NAI questioning, really. 

That was long, and I apologise for its length, but combined with reads I’ve been getting from PMs on Fura, I definitely believe she ought to be lynched today. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Yeah, I don't really agree with lynching Fura.

Mostly because I have a PM with Fura, and after asking them to explain their thought process on some things and their reads, I don't really feel like this is the thought process of an elim.

There's also the fact that most of the things Fura is doing that they are being suspected for, are things I suspected village!Fura of in the last MR (which we can now talk about, because it finished).

 

So I'm a bit more inclined to suspect Devotary. Reasons:

• Rath and Devotary are the two people I found when looking for "people who tried to avoid input on the lynch". I would be pretty surprised if none of the elims were exhibiting this behavior pattern in a village-village D1 lynch.
  • However, Rath's response to my initially raising that point kind of points to their being village (thanks for pointing that out, Fura). I also have a better gut read on Rath.
• The D1 interaction where Devotary needed to clarify that one post was interesting and kind of odd. I'm not sure I can put my finger on what seemed off in that interaction, because I don't even think the post that Devotary needed to clarify was really all that suspicious, but yeah.
• There's also the fact that so far Devotary has focused mostly on game analysis and not analysis of people, although I concede that this isn't strongly alignment indicative because there isn't as much to analyze with people yet (it's more that the players who are already analyzing other players seem slightly more village to me).

[Furamirionind]

That's good analysis on me by Fifth. I was very inconsistent on my opinion of Fifth, but it sounds very genuine to me. This locks my current read on Fifth as village. No more flip flopping on Fifth for me.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Quickly noting another promise to vote which was not kept. The bulk of my issue with this post is the 99% clear of Ventyl, which she never particularly explains, and which appears to be either pocketing or a blatant attempt to get a fellow teammate trusted. There’s little reason for a villager to have that degree of confidence in anyone's alignment, and I’m also wary of Stick for later echoing this sentiment, particularly as it’s unexplained. I too view Ventyl as village, but not to the assumed degree which these two jumped to. 

Well, it was mainly to do with the GM-Ventyl interaction, combined with it being stated in an edit, combined with the topic. If Ventyl was an elim, I don't think Striker would be giving him pointers, and I also don't think, if he was to give pointers, it would be to give more thoughts. However, as all these things make lots of sense with a village Ventyl, we should clear him. 
I didn't say this, as I generally don't like using this sort of meta reasons to give reads on people, however, I think they are more often accurate than not.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Given that you encouraged Thugs to claim to you, even essentially threatening them if they didn’t, I find this a little hypocritical. 

I disagree. I was asking the Mistborn to claim. Not Thugs. The reason I asked this, was because I didn't think there would be another MB, yet an Elim!Thug that survives the lynch might very well claim Mistborn to prevent them from being lynched again. I was avoiding that scenario, not just asking for roleclaims.

---

Had to walk away for a while due to being at work. Ninja'd by Drake.

---

I am mostly suspicious of Stick right now. Primarily because of this part:

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Quote

[Fura quote]

Why would you lean elim on Fifth if I flip village?

Because I’ll lean slight village on Aman then, which in turn would make me wary of Fifth given their interaction last cycle (which I said was probably either v-v or e-v/v-e), as well as Fifth’s suspicion of Aman this cycle with the suggestions of the WGG and all.

This is reading way too much into my death. If I flipped elim, you could reasonably conclude that Aman is as well. However, if I flip village, why is Aman village? I could have been a pocketed or misled villager. My posts are not automatically correct just because I am village. I pressed Stick on this in our PM, and they started hedging... hedging to me... on my own lynch? lol

you also say that Fifth-Aman is v-v or e-v. But you quickly overlook the possibility of them being v-v. If Aman is village, there is a good chance they are v-v I think.

Edit: I'll vote on Stick. This way I at least have some sort of voting pattern to be tracked. : )

Stick

Edited June 13, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Straw he/him]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Would like to note a quick suspicion of Straw for this post. It contributes very little to discussion, while appearing to say something vaguely villager-ish. As with Fura’s post following Aman’s attack and survival, it’s also a little suspicious for its quick way of brushing over Aman’s survival, and the hesitant language sets off a few alarms. Village!Straw is still brief, but tends towards concise and relevant commentary rather than “throwaway” posts like these which are good at making somebody appear active but allows them to remain in the shadows. 

I was unsure if I would be able to get on twice later in the turn, so i wanted to make sure that i could get two posts in. i'd rather not get killed by the filter. 

The hesitant language was due to me being worried that it might be a WGG. However, I was unsure about the viability of a N1 WGG, as it would attract too much attention to Aman, who already seemed to be seen as a villager. I was also a bit worried that we would suffer from a lack of information that would be able to to kickstart discussion. D1 had very few votes, and didn't appear to have very much stuff that could prompt discussion today.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

What's the vote tally?

[Furamirionind]

I think the vote count is as follows:

Devotary(2): Sart, Drake

Fura(2): Stick, Fifth

Stick(1): Fura

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

What's the vote tally?

• (2) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, 
• (2) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, 
• (1) _Stick_: Furamirionind,

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I think the vote count is as follows:

Devotary(2): Sart, Drake

Fura(2): Stick, Fifth

Stick(1): Fura

Oops, Ninja'd. You got it right though, Fura.

Xino. Have you been keeping up with the game? As far as I'm aware, you haven't expressed any opinions on the game so far.

[Stick. she/her]

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

However, if I flip village, why is Aman village? I could have been a pocketed or misled villager. My posts are not automatically correct just because I am village.

I said, to quote myself, “I’ll lean slight village” on Aman. I implied nothing about that being his definitive alignment. 

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

you also say that Fifth-Aman is v-v or e-v. But you quickly overlook the possibility of them being v-v. If Aman is village, there is a good chance they are v-v I think.

Again, what makes you think I overlooked all other possibilities? I said “would make me wary of Fifth”. Cuz there’s a chance. I’m speculating.  

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I’ve realized that the current version of the Police win-con makes it near impossible for the Kandra to meet their win-con. In order to make this more fair for everyone involved, I am changing the rules so that the Police have to kill the Kandra and the Rebels in order to win. 

[Sart he/him]

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Fura: I disagree that the chances of a WGG on N1 are astronomical. As Fifth remind shortly after, it's happened before, and it's definitely something I would do. I have no problem posting this because I harbor no ill intentions or guilt, but if I were an eliminator and had the opportunity to pull off a WGG, I would do it as soon as possible, no questions asked.

Why? Because when I'm a villager, it's expected that I get attacked early. Maybe not N1 but N2 or N3 are very good bets. Every time I'm an eliminator this is something I struggle with. I have to consider the implications of every single kill I put in (I ask myself, in the case someone calls it out, how can I justify the eliminators attacking another person over me?). Honestly a lot of the time I can't and it ends up getting me killed or at least not trusted, so I have to resort to heavy distancing and implicating villagers I intentionally let live so that when I flip there's at least a mislynch or two after the fact.

I'm definitely not hard cleared, and I respect that Fifth is keeping a healthy amount of paranoia. I would do the same thing if I was them. If anyone clears me, I hope it's because of the content of my posts.

That all said, it's not a WGG, and I'm very grateful for whoever saved me. I'm assuming it means they read me as village and worried I might be taken out. Whoever you are, if you haven't PM'd me already, it might be best that you don't. I'm very concerned about the existence of an Eliminator Tineye, not to mention an Eliminator Hazekiller. If they manage to figure out your identity than they would be able to roleblock you while attacking me again to ensure I'm dead for good.

That all said, I'm a bit confused Fura. If I'm evil while not being a Thug, that means the elims would either have a Lurcher or a Mistborn. If it's a Mistborn and they are discovered, then it would be very clearly a WGG, but if it's a Lurcher, the only way the village would know if said Lurcher eventually died. In any other scenario, how would you go about proving I'm evil later on in the game?

I too am interested in the fact the eliminators went for me D1. It says a lot, and I think I've managed to pin down a few villager alignments because of it, which really helps me to narrow down suspects. For example, those who PM'd me in the first cycle, I think have a higher likelihood of being village (spending a PM on someone they intend to kill would be a bit of a waste, no?). And likewise, I'm a bit more suspicious of people who PM'd me after the fact, because they might be looking for even a little information on who the Lurcher could be.

I too am curious about there being no second kill. I'm glad that a potential Coinshot didn't try firing in the dark. As for the kandra, it's possible they have a limited number of kills or decided to play the long game, as your second bullet represents. I welcome any Seekers to scan me so they can see I'm not a kandra. I'm willing to state that I have a role, so it shouldn't be an issue.

Did I criticize a lack of votes, Devotary? I don't believe I have, and I'll admit, trying to paint me in an inaccurate light is a bit of a red flag. If I'm wrong, please show us, otherwise I may end up voting on you, because it kinda feels like you're trying to subconsciously ride on some of the credit I might get for surviving this kill.

Welcome Bard! I'm very happy to have you!

I'm not, Fura. I've clarified this above. That lost post I made was only responding to the write up. I hadn't read the thread at the time, but wanted to get that info out ASAP.

(Emphasis Mine)

"That seems odd. Wouldn't you want to know the identity of the person who saved you? I don't consider Lurchers to be that high of target. Sure, the protection is nice, but we're risking our lives every day. I don't expect to get out of this without a few casualties. Look at it this way. If you're telling the truth, you have someone to confirm your story, and exonerate you. If you're working for the Rebels though, you'd have to drag in another teammate to support your story. If they revealed themselves, we would have two honest cops, with an unlikely possibility of two Rebels. If I were the Lurcher, I'd consider revealing it to the Police Corps as a whole. Apparently they can self-protect, so it would always be a guessing game for the Rebels to deal with them. Because of this suggestion though, I'm starting to suspect you again. I don't like that."

"That was a lot of words coming from you."

"..."

"And back to being quiet..."

[Aonar he/him]

Ah, but there's another possibility you're all overlooking; the hardcore reverse-WGG mindgame.  

(Sorry not sorry. I just got off work and caught up with the thread a few minutes ago; I'm dead tired and sore everywhere.  I'm in absolutely zero shape for serious discussion right now. However, there's a 50/50 chance I won't have time to catch up before rollover tomorrow (since it's less than an hour after I get off work) so I'm going to stick around for a bit and try to get into a mindset where I can do some analysis before I need to sleep. /shurg See y'all then, hopefully.)

Edited June 14, 2019 by Aonar

[Lumgol she/her]

Furamirionind has just made too many posts that seem elim.

Asking Mistborn to claim to them in PM's. Then asking other roles not to?

Starting off by saying that tonight's kill was definitely not a WGG. Instead of listing the options and analyzing each one, Fura straight-up said (I'm paraphrasing) "This was definitely not a WGG because [Fura's reasoning]".

Although I have reasons to believe that tonight's kill was likely not a WGG, and I tentatively trust Aman, this sounds... too much like a cover-up?

People have argued that Fura is sounding TWTBAW, but why? If someone's village, why couldn't they just sound village? If someone is sounding suspicious, I'll still find them suspicious even if it seems like "too much".

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

 

• Rath and Devotary are the two people I found when looking for "people who tried to avoid input on the lynch". I would be pretty surprised if none of the elims were exhibiting this behavior pattern in a village-village D1 lynch.
  • However, Rath's response to my initially raising that point kind of points to their being village (thanks for pointing that out, Fura). I also have a better gut read on Rath.
• The D1 interaction where Devotary needed to clarify that one post was interesting and kind of odd. I'm not sure I can put my finger on what seemed off in that interaction, because I don't even think the post that Devotary needed to clarify was really all that suspicious, but yeah.
• There's also the fact that so far Devotary has focused mostly on game analysis and not analysis of people, although I concede that this isn't strongly alignment indicative because there isn't as much to analyze with people yet (it's more that the players who are already analyzing other players seem slightly more village to me).

There was a fairly common sentiment towards the end of D1 that there weren't any good lynch targets, with only one vote in the last twenty hours of the cycle. Some people wanted a lynch but didn't have any clear targets(Fifth, Ventyl, Rath, Stick apparently), some people would have preferred not to have a lynch(Aman, I would say Fura fits in here, I would rather have had a no-lynch than a lynch decided by so few players and for largely arbitrary reasons) and others were ambivalent(Lum, all the people who posted but didn't vote or indicate any sort of suspicion/lack of suspicion).

I responded to concerns about my D1 post because people were interpreting it to mean that I supported late cycle lynches to ensure that players couldn't burn pewter to survive the lynch. As this was not what I had been trying to communicate, I clarified what my actual opinions were, that we should not be trying to sneak lynches past pewter burners. I would consider breaking a tie in the last half hour of the cycle to count as a last hour lynch. With presumably our only village Mistborn dead, it's more likely that someone who survives a lynch is evil, but that doesn't mean we should lynch people without giving them time to defend themselves.

I tend to focus on game analysis rather than player analysis early in the game because I'm better at the former. I tend not to have any solid leads in the first few cycles, and will rarely share my unfounded opinions.

53 minutes ago, Sart said:

If I were the Lurcher, I'd consider revealing it to the Police Corps as a whole. Apparently they can self-protect, so it would always be a guessing game for the Rebels to deal with them.

An unknown Lurcher who can soak up a kill is a nice thing to have, and if there's an elim Hazekiller, that Lurcher could easily be killed. If Aman was protected by a village Lurcher, it's not particularly important for Aman to know who it was, though that Lurcher may well want to let someone know they valued Aman's continued existence over their own if Aman was about to be lynched for surviving a kill. It is true that Aman's worries about elim Tineyes are an overreaction, as Tineyes don't see when PMs were created and thus won't be able to tell when someone PMd Aman unless he was scanned last night and this day.

22 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Starting off by saying that tonight's kill was definitely not a WGG. Instead of listing the options and analyzing each one, Fura straight-up said (I'm paraphrasing) "This was definitely not a WGG because [Fura's reasoning]".

Although I have reasons to believe that tonight's kill was likely not a WGG, and I tentatively trust Aman, this sounds... too much like a cover-up?

What would elim!Fura be covering up if the elims tried and failed to kill village!Aman? I've seen elims be overly enthusiastic about a villager surviving a kill, but it's not really a cover-up if Aman is village unless the elims decided to go with Aonar's possibility, which I feel sure has a name other than Wounded Buffalo Gambit. Other than role based reasons(being the Lurcher who protected Aman, Seeking Aman as a Thug or Lurcher, trying and failing to kill Aman, etc.) why do you believe that Aman's survival was not due to elim protection?