Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[xinoehp512 he/him]

I'm really falling off the wagon here, folks...

[Amanuensis he/him]

25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

An unknown Lurcher who can soak up a kill is a nice thing to have, and if there's an elim Hazekiller, that Lurcher could easily be killed. If Aman was protected by a village Lurcher, it's not particularly important for Aman to know who it was, though that Lurcher may well want to let someone know they valued Aman's continued existence over their own if Aman was about to be lynched for surviving a kill. It is true that Aman's worries about elim Tineyes are an overreaction, as Tineyes don't see when PMs were created and thus won't be able to tell when someone PMd Aman unless he was scanned last night and this day.

I disagree that it's an overreaction. It would be different if everyone agreed to send me a PM ASAP, but it's not like I have a lot of PMs. Even narrowing the list of Lurchers to six names would be beneficial, since they can cross reference that information with interactions in the thread.

Plus, all I said is "It might be best." As in, I'm leaving it up to the Lurcher's discretion.

ED1T:

17 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I'm really falling off the wagon here, folks...

What can we do to help @xinoehp512?

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Lumgol she/her]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Other than role based reasons(being the Lurcher who protected Aman, Seeking Aman as a Thug or Lurcher, trying and failing to kill Aman, etc.) why do you believe that Aman's survival was not due to elim protection?

I said that I have reasons to believe that Aman's survival was not due to elim protection. I specifically chose this wording because I don't have any concrete evidence to believe that, I just see a lot of plausible options that don't involve a WGG. A village Lurcher could have protected Aman. Aman might be a Thug. Something less likely is that an elim Lurcher might have protected Village!Aman to gain trust, and I find that less likely because no one has openly claimed Lurcher here.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

After catching up on this, I’m finding Devotary suspicious, mainly because I agree with other peoples post about her. So if you’re wondering that’s why I’m putting this vote on you. I’m also getting village vibes from Aman and Fura, so I don’t believe that’s a e-e interaction.

 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There was a fairly common sentiment towards the end of D1 that there weren't any good lynch targets, with only one vote in the last twenty hours of the cycle. Some people wanted a lynch but didn't have any clear targets(Fifth, Ventyl, Rath, Stick apparently), some people would have preferred not to have a lynch(Aman, I would say Fura fits in here, I would rather have had a no-lynch than a lynch decided by so few players and for largely arbitrary reasons) and others were ambivalent(Lum, all the people who posted but didn't vote or indicate any sort of suspicion/lack of suspicion).

I am of the belief that if many people are unhappy with the lynch, then they should change it. But that's besides the point.

Thank you for providing this explanation. Do you believe any of those categories might correlate with alignment?

For that matter, what category if any would you place yourself in?

[Furamirionind]

It's hard to change the lynch 10 minutes to rollover. I tried once in MR35, and not only did it not work, but it made me look really suspicious. I dont blame any villager or elim for not trying to change the lynch that late due to that. I am an example of that. If I was around an hour or so before rollover, I would have likely tried to get a non-Ark/Drake lynch. 

Edit: lums analysis has felt really forced all game to me. I can try to explain when I get home.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

After catching up on this, I’m finding Devotary suspicious, mainly because I agree with other peoples post about her. So if you’re wondering that’s why I’m putting this vote on you. I’m also getting village vibes from Aman and Fura, so I don’t believe that’s a e-e interaction.

I suppose I am the main alternative to Fura at this point, though I'm not entirely sure why. I understand why Drake is voting for me, but not where Sart's vote came from. Which posts are you referring to?

3 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

I am of the belief that if many people are unhappy with the lynch, then they should change it. But that's besides the point.

Thank you for providing this explanation. Do you believe any of those categories might correlate with alignment?

For that matter, what category if any would you place yourself in?

This time for sure I'll be around to change the lynch. Not wanting a lynch is more dependent on opinions in past games. If someone doesn't have a history of wanting to avoid D1 lynches, or is far more likely to do so when evil or good, then it could become AI. Some types of ambivalence are NAI, such as posts made solely to avoid the filter. Popping in to notice the state of the lynch and then not stating any opinions is more elim leaning. There's probably room there for further clarification.

Wanting to have a lynch but not seeing any good targets has the most bearing on alignment, though that doesn't mean it's clear which way. I've cast tie-breaking/tie making votes on v-v, v-e and e-e lynches as elim and villager*, often making the wrong choice as a villager in a v-e scenario. *Technically village-aligned SK for that last one. The closer to rollover and the less chance of actually getting an alternative lynch, the lower bearing wanting a lynch but not having any great options has on alignment. Elims will make the "wrong" choice more often though, so seeing the alignment of those up for the lynch does help to some degree.

I placed myself in the 'would prefer not to have a lynch' category, though that was mostly dependent on the lynch being between you and Ark, with the only other options being Walin and suicide. Not voting D1 didn't turn out well for me in Qf37 or MR35, so it would be nice if I could stop doing that.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I don't really have strong feelings for anyone up for the lynch right now. I don't agree with Stick's assessment of Fura, but also don't think it is out of character for Stick. However, I find it hard to believe that no elims have voted at all this cycle. I've already made my mild suspicion of Drake known, so I'll look somewhere else since I've tended to vote very singlemindedly the last few games I've been in. @Sart Sart, do you have further thoughts in response to Devotary?

Also, @xinoehp512, consider this a non-lethal poke vote. Who would you lynch right now? You've been asking about vote tallies but have yet to give us anything substantial to work with.

[Amanuensis he/him]

• (3) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, 
• (3) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, 
• (1) _Stick_: Furamirionind,
• (1) Sart: Araris Valerian, 

So yesterday I preemptively got all of Drake's posts loaded to analyze, but now that I've woken up and realized he's not even being voted for, I think I'll put them aside and focus on Devotary and Fura (plus Rath, should I have the time, though it's unlikely since I'll be traveling back to Zagreb later today). Between the two, I'll take a look at Fura first since people keep saying we seem to be working together (we're not), not to mention I have more village reads voting against them (Fifth and Lum) than just Mrake on the other side of the split.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis
Color fix

[Amanuensis he/him]

Furamirionind

1. Third post of the game (hour and a half after game began). Poke votes Fifth. NAI
2. Begins speculation on elim!kandra. Leans toward unlikely. Given how early in the game this discussion is, I'll rank it as NAI
3. Based on Rath and Stick's speculations, comes to like the idea of an elim!kandra. Still NAI
4. Apologizes for not removing vote from Fifth despite reading them as Village (I do too so I understand why). Questions my initial statement on a no lynch (reasonable, as several others commented on it). Also votes Sart to get him talking more, and says they're trying not to spend much time on SE this week due to health related reasons. For the most part I find this NAI without knowing Sart's alignment, but maybe a slight Village lean due to the phase of the game.
5. Joke about the Mistborn claiming by using emojis. NAI
6. Is apprehensive about a no-lynch due to an ongoing game. While I personally expect an eliminator would want to lynch on the first day regardless, it's a reasonable concern for villagers as well, so I don't know if I can say anything more than NAI.
7. Responds to Sart's response and drops their vote, then says they'll probably not vote until later. Due to the nature of this being a poke vote, it's difficult to tell Fura's intentions other than getting Sart's attention. NAI depending on Sart's alignment.
8. Asserts that Ventyl is village (later explained to be for meta reasons). If Ventyl is really village (which I think is more likely due to non-meta reasons), then I kinda doubt Fura would comment on it at all. There's a possibility it could be a pocketing attempt or a disingenuous village read on a villager for credit, but I find that less likely than ignoring it and hoping no one comments. Very slight Village lean.
9. Pings Mrake about Fifth's case on him, when he is tied for votes with Ark 2-2. This is when there's a little more than an hour left in the turn. I would do this from both alignments personally, and have a pretty good amount of trust in Fura's wolf game, so I think I can't give them Village lean for not being bloodthirsty. NAI with the caveat that if Drake is Village like I suspect, it would make sense to grab his attention rather than interfere directly.
10. Posts that they don't want either Drake or Ark dead, but would rather let things pan out than present a new target for a last-minute swing. This stance makes sense from either alignment in a V-V world. In the event that Drake is on an elim team with Fura, then I'd still expect them to vote rather than leave it to chance (unless Drake is a vanilla elim). In other words... NAI depending on Drake's role/alignment.
11. Encourages any surviving Mistborn to PM them soon, otherwise they'll be suspicious. Is the first to propose a V/V lynch, which I think Fura could have come to conclusion at the end of the previous turn, when no one was making an effort to interfere. In spite of their previous post I kind of find this suspicious. Both factors combined, I give this post a slight Elim lean.
12. Responds to Fifth's questioning of Fura wanting Mistborn to claim to them. Doesn't find anyone more trustworthy, which is reasonable for a villager on N1, though I'm not much a fan of that kind of stratagem. Sees little good reason why Drake would be the kandra and gives 1/15 odds (note that at the time, there's 16 living players, so it essentially says nothing). If I look at it in a vacuum, probably NAI, but the previous post makes me lean slight Elim as well.
13. Prods Snipexe's wording about bias and Villager Buck's(TM), and asks for more info  on Lum's suspicion of Devotary.  Feels more nit-picky than solvy to me, but could really be coming from either alignment. NAI with maybe slight Elim lean.
14. Note that Fura doesn't acknowledge Snip's response, which I would expect a villager to follow up on. Explains why they were apprehensive of no D1 lynch this game (in spite of them supporting it in MR35). While the latter half is pretty NAI, I'm suspicious of the fact they ignored Snip. Slight Elim.
15. Asks Ventyl why a Coinshot should claim to someone, which I can see interpreted as hypocritical based on their previous Mistborn PM request. Slight Elim lean.
16. Asks Xino who they trust the most / least. NAI given how many of us have tried to get Xino more involved.
17. States the odds of a N1 WGG being astronomical, which I took issue with already. While Fura isn't wrong, I would expect a Villager to be less certain / bring up other possibilities. Since I think the elims were caught flat-footed by this development, I'll give this an Elim lean.
18. Responds to Fifth's question of Fura's previous post with further explanation on why they find a WGG so unlikely. I also questioned this because I don't see what ways a WGG could be proven without killing elim!me or an elim!Lurcher/Mistborn. Slight Elim lean.
19. Questions why Stick would lean elim on Fifth if Fura is village, and asks me if I'm trying to get the Lurcher to claim to me. Considering the Mistborn PM request, again, seeing a little bit of hypocrisy here. Slight Elim lean. Here's my full post on the matter.
20. Says Fifth's analysis of Fura is good / feels genuine, and reads him as village. Clarifies the meta reason for believing Ventyl is a Villager, and why they didn't mention it before due to it being meta-based. Also explains that they were trying to avoid an elim!Thug claiming MB to avoid the lynch with their PM request. My problem with this logic is if Fura is village, that means they think it would be reasonable for two village Mistborn to exist. That seems incredibly unlikely so I would expect a Villager to just leave things at "anyone else who claims Mistborn is inherently suspicious." Also votes on Stick for her response to earlier questioning. Believes Stick was reading too much into her flip and hedged in their PM, while also questioning the fact that Stick thinks Fifth and I are V-E or E-V instead of V-V. I actually can see Fura's logic against Stick, though I'm a bit apprehensive considering a portion of it deals with conversations I can't see. I think this might be the best example of E!Fura - V!Stick or V!Fura - E!Stick. Considering previous posts, I'm leaning the first. Slight Elim lean.
21. Vote count. NAI
22. Again neglects responding to Stick's answer, as Fura did with Snip. Further explains they tried to change the lynch toward the end of a cycle in MR35 and was determined suspicious for it. Honestly NAI again because both a villager and eliminator would learn from that lesson. Also edits in that Lum's analysis feels forced. I trust Lum so this doesn't look good for Fura either. Slight Elim lean.

And that's all their posts. Earlier I posited that Fura might be an example of TWTBW, but after Fifth pointed out in PMs that it could be a matter of Fura's eliminator tells coming out due to rushing their posts, I think I'm coming around to the idea. Additionally, due to a fact that of these 22 posts, most of them are NAI, I think that could be an indicator of an elim trying to blend with lots of minimal content posts.

Here's one thing though. At 11:28 PM on Wednesday (N1, I believe) Fura PM'd me and asked for a PM-contacts trade. I didn't consider the implications of informing Fura much at the time, but I agreed and now I'm a little worried Fura was testing to see if I was networking a lot with the Village. In the event that Fura's an eliminator this was a very bad call on my part, and now that I think about it, I might prefer to resolve this lynch even after I do my analysis of Devotary. Especially since Fura hasn't replied anything more after N1 (while I have).

ED1T: This all said, I have a concern I would like to address. It's pretty much entirely speculation based on info we don't have about the kandra, but I have been trying to figure out a way the kandra role might work without a night kill.

Given kandra's are known for the ability to disguise themselves as dead people (and the fact this isn't an anonymous game that would allow for the usual mechanic), I'm wondering if it works as kind of infection. With the goal to be the last player standing, the kandra may require being killed to win. The way it might work is that in the event of the kandra being lynched, they can choose among the voters who they infect. In the event of a night kill, whoever puts the kill in would become the new kandra. Write up wise, it would be like the kandra died, but really one of the killers becomes the new kandra, and their win con changes to die as well.

Strategically, it would make the most sense to play like a Town of Salem Jester, I.E. intentionally acting suspicious enough to be lynched so they have more options of who continues their legacy. The goal would be for the kandra to collectively work to ensure the last player alive is the kandra. It's a way for the kandra to jump between alignments without breaking the game, too, since if an eliminator became the kandra they would have no reason to spill their teammates names to the village, as they're now effectively neutral with an unrelated win con to the village/elim war.

Chances of this being true are probably 1/100, but it's something that crossed my mind, and I figured it would be better to air it out in the thread rather than let it lie (especially since Fura would be the most obvious candidate for a role like this).

ED2T:

@StrikerEZ, is there a chance of other secrets existing in this game? Or is the kandra guaranteed to be the only one?

My main issue with this concept is how would we remove the kandra for good.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis
Adding colors

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Given kandra's are known for the ability to disguise themselves as dead people (and the fact this isn't an anonymous game that would allow for the usual mechanic), I'm wondering if it works as kind of infection. With the goal to be the last player standing, the kandra may require being killed to win. The way it might work is that in the event of the kandra being lynched, they can choose among the voters who they infect. In the event of a night kill, whoever puts the kill in would become the new kandra. Write up wise, it would be like the kandra died, but really one of the killers becomes the new kandra, and their win con changes to die as well.

Strategically, it would make the most sense to play like a Town of Salem Jester, I.E. intentionally acting suspicious enough to be lynched so they have more options of who continues their legacy. The goal would be for the kandra to collectively work to ensure the last player alive is the kandra. It's a way for the kandra to jump between alignments without breaking the game, too, since if an eliminator became the kandra they would have no reason to spill their teammates names to the village, as they're now effectively neutral with an unrelated win con to the village/elim war.

Chances of this being true are probably 1/100, but it's something that crossed my mind, and I figured it would be better to air it out in the thread rather than let it lie (especially since Fura would be the most obvious candidate for a role like this).

Although my paranoia tells me this is you defending Fura in a roundabout way, I won't deny that you bring up a fascinating possibility. Kind of reminds me of the mechanic in Frr's QF. And given Striker's clarification:

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, I’ve realized that the current version of the Police win-con makes it near impossible for the Kandra to meet their win-con. In order to make this more fair for everyone involved, I am changing the rules so that the Police have to kill the Kandra and the Rebels in order to win. 

it kind of makes sense. If the kandra win-con is made easier/possible to achieve by modifying our wincon so that we have to kill them, I'd suspect that their win-con involves them dying (or at least being discovered by the village?)...and the only way that would make sense given the whole 'be the last player standing' thing is by somehow not dying. Hm.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Here's one thing though. At 11:28 PM on Wednesday (N1, I believe) Fura PM'd me and asked for a PM-contacts trade. I didn't consider the implications of informing Fura much at the time, but I agreed and now I'm a little worried Fura was testing to see if I was networking a lot with the Village. In the event that Fura's an eliminator this was a very bad call on my part, and now that I think about it, I might prefer to resolve this lynch even after I do my analysis of Devotary. Especially since Fura hasn't replied anything more after N1 (while I have).

Just getting back and seeing this, and not remarking on the rest of your post (as I’ve already stated what I believe about each of Fura’s posts), but I can attest that Fura also tried to sniff out my PM contacts as well, and despite me rebuffing her, somebody else told her anyway because the two were in contact. She also initially refused a role-trade, then upon accepting it, made a deliberately false claim which basically ruined a beautiful plan I had formulated, then backtracked and claimed a role which I find suspicious. In addition, she’s just generally shied away from giving definitive opinions on her suspicions, and my PMs have gone similarly quiet. 

In regards to your bodyhopping Kandra theory, it is interesting, but I doubt it’s actually the case considering that having a player change alignment almost every cycle would probably break the game. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

In regards to your bodyhopping Kandra theory, it is interesting, but I doubt it’s actually the case considering that having a player change alignment almost every cycle would probably break the game. 

I don’t think it would be an every cycle thing, to be fair. It’s more like even if the kandra lives, they can still further their win con by getting other people killed, and if they ever die they still have a chance. The biggest problem I have with the theory is I have no clue how we would kill the kandra for good, especially with the change Striker made to the village win con. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@StrikerEZ, is there a chance of other secrets existing in this game? Or is the kandra guaranteed to be the only one?

PAFO (play and find out) 

[Furamirionind]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

My problem with this logic is if Fura is village, that means they think it would be reasonable for two village Mistborn to exist. That seems incredibly unlikely so I would expect a Villager to just leave things at "anyone else who claims Mistborn is inherently suspicious."

My Kandra theory is they can spend an action to adopt the role of a dead player. I asked this after Ark's lynch. My goal, was hoping the Kandra would claim to someone. This would also prevent elims from being able to claim MB when surviving a lynch.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Here's one thing though. At 11:28 PM on Wednesday (N1, I believe) Fura PM'd me and asked for a PM-contacts trade. I didn't consider the implications of informing Fura much at the time, but I agreed and now I'm a little worried Fura was testing to see if I was networking a lot with the Village. In the event that Fura's an eliminator this was a very bad call on my part, and now that I think about it, I might prefer to resolve this lynch even after I do my analysis of Devotary. Especially since Fura hasn't replied anything more after N1 (while I have).

I was going to argue that I've done this before as a villager, but I think the last time I had was Sarts FFA QF... so that hardly has any bearing on my alignment.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Here's one thing though. At 11:28 PM on Wednesday (N1, I believe) Fura PM'd me and asked for a PM-contacts trade. I didn't consider the implications of informing Fura much at the time, but I agreed and now I'm a little worried Fura was testing to see if I was networking a lot with the Village

I mean, that's kind of exactly what I was doing. However, if you are so concerned with that information you gave me, why did you continue telling me about your PM contacts after the night ended?

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Says Fifth's analysis of Fura is good / feels genuine, and reads him as village. Clarifies the meta reason for believing Ventyl is a Villager, and why they didn't mention it before due to it being meta-based. Also explains that they were trying to avoid an elim!Thug claiming MB to avoid the lynch with their PM request. My problem with this logic is if Fura is village, that means they think it would be reasonable for two village Mistborn to exist. That seems incredibly unlikely so I would expect a Villager to just leave things at "anyone else who claims Mistborn is inherently suspicious." Also votes on Stick for her response to earlier questioning. Believes Stick was reading too much into her flip and hedged in their PM, while also questioning the fact that Stick thinks Fifth and I are V-E or E-V instead of V-V. I actually can see Fura's logic against Stick, though I'm a bit apprehensive considering a portion of it deals with conversations I can't see. I think this might be the best example of E!Fura - V!Stick or V!Fura - E!Stick. Considering previous posts, I'm leaning the first. Slight Elim lean

Hmm. I didnt question your elim read of this post on first read through... but it is misleading. You arent actually elim reading the post. You are assuming my evil alignment, then casting your elim read of my post because of that. Come on Aman. Your better than that.

I know you're busy, but what this should prompt you to do is analyze Stick before casting a read of that post... or just say you arent sure.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Questions why Stick would lean elim on Fifth if Fura is village, and asks me if I'm trying to get the Lurcher to claim to me. Considering the Mistborn PM request, again, seeing a little bit of hypocrisy here. Slight Elim lean. Here's my full post on the matter.

You say in a differant reaponse that you see where my suspicion of Stick is coming from. This would imply to me while you arent able to see all the data, you think this a reasonable arguement for a villager to make, yet here you only focus on the "hypocrisy".

------------------

You say my play this game looks very possibly like a rushed elim who is showing their tells. Is it not possible, I am a rushed villager showing their tells?

------------------

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Just getting back and seeing this, and not remarking on the rest of your post (as I’ve already stated what I believe about each of Fura’s posts), but I can attest that Fura also tried to sniff out my PM contacts as well, and despite me rebuffing her, somebody else told her anyway because the two were in contact. She also initially refused a role-trade, then upon accepting it, made a deliberately false claim which basically ruined a beautiful plan I had formulated, then backtracked and claimed a role which I find suspicious. In addition, she’s just generally shied away from giving definitive opinions on her suspicions, and my PMs have gone similarly quiet. 

In regards to your bodyhopping Kandra theory, it is interesting, but I doubt it’s actually the case considering that having a player change alignment almost every cycle would probably break the game. 

Wait a second... I didnt try to "sniff out your PMs". I offered an honest trade.

You are upset I false claimed to you? Honestly, before I even false claimed, you offered me an unequal trade for my role. Your role + PMs just for my role. I found this suspicious and told you such. You think I would roleclaim to someone I specifically found suspicious? 

Next, you are being VERY misleading here. Idk if you made your plan before or after I roleclaimed, but you didnt wait on my approval before taking action. Dont blame me for that...

------------------------

I dont like the sudden apperant change of opinion on Stick by Aman. Aman told me he was suspicious of Stick and one other due to PMing him imidiately after he survived the night. 

I think Lum-Stick-Aman elim team. Though Aman has done a lot of distancing with Stick, so I am not certain if they can be on the same team. Perhaps one of them is a Kandra...

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

16 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Wait a second... I didnt try to "sniff out your PMs". I offered an honest trade.

You are upset I false claimed to you? Honestly, before I even false claimed, you offered me an unequal trade for my role. Your role + PMs just for my role. I found this suspicious and told you such. You think I would roleclaim to someone I specifically found suspicious? 

Next, you are being VERY misleading here. Idk if you made your plan before or after I roleclaimed, but you didnt wait on my approval before taking action. Dont blame me for that...

It was an “honest trade,” but not really, because you apparently already knew who I was in touch with. 

Yes, it was unequal. I’ve already stated that I’m comfortable with unequal trades if they’re skewed against me as long as I’m getting some information. I thought your role would be as valuable as my role and my contacts, and was therefore willing to exchange both. And given that you essentially eventually did, I can only answer that question with a yes. 

Before, but the plan was contingent on only one other person knowing about it to be effective. Once I wasted that on your false claim, it can no longer be executed. 

[Straw he/him]

21 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

My Kandra theory is they can spend an action to adopt the role of a dead player. I asked this after Ark's lynch. My goal, was hoping the Kandra would claim to someone. This would also prevent elims from being able to claim MB when surviving a lynch.

I'm pretty sure that Kandra can't copy allomantic powers.

[Furamirionind]

12 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

It was an “honest trade,” but not really, because you apparently already knew who I was in touch with. 

How does that make it not an honest trade? If anything it makes it more honest due to me not needing to give you information on me in exchange for it, yet I still did.

12 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Quote

You are upset I false claimed to you? Honestly, before I even false claimed, you offered me an unequal trade for my role. Your role + PMs just for my role. I found this suspicious and told you such. You think I would roleclaim to someone I specifically found suspicious?

Yes, it was unequal. I’ve already stated that I’m comfortable with unequal trades if they’re skewed against me as long as I’m getting some information. I thought your role would be as valuable as my role and my contacts, and was therefore willing to exchange both. And given that you essentially eventually did, I can only answer that question with a yes. 

Yes, out of pity. And that was it. I also have said my reads have been flipping on you a lot. Just about with every one of your posts in fact.

12 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Before, but the plan was contingent on only one other person knowing about it to be effective. Once I wasted that on your false claim, it can no longer be executed. 

Not true. Just don't include me and it works fine. Care to take this to PMs?

Edit:

11 minutes ago, Straw said:

I'm pretty sure that Kandra can't copy allomantic powers.

Well, yes according to lore... But... Mechanics? :'( it's just a theory...

Edited June 14, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis he/him]

37 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I mean, that's kind of exactly what I was doing. However, if you are so concerned with that information you gave me, why did you continue telling me about your PM contacts after the night ended?

Hmm. I didnt question your elim read of this post on first read through... but it is misleading. You arent actually elim reading the post. You are assuming my evil alignment, then casting your elim read of my post because of that. Come on Aman. Your better than that.

I know you're busy, but what this should prompt you to do is analyze Stick before casting a read of that post... or just say you arent sure.

You say in a differant reaponse that you see where my suspicion of Stick is coming from. This would imply to me while you arent able to see all the data, you think this a reasonable arguement for a villager to make, yet here you only focus on the "hypocrisy".

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You say my play this game looks very possibly like a rushed elim who is showing their tells. Is it not possible, I am a rushed villager showing their tells?

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I dont like the sudden apperant change of opinion on Stick by Aman. Aman told me he was suspicious of Stick and one other due to PMing him imidiately after he survived the night. 

I think Lum-Stick-Aman elim team. Though Aman has done a lot of distancing with Stick, so I am not certain if they can be on the same team. Perhaps one of them is a Kandra...

I didn’t consider that an elim would reach out to me on D2 until after I sent you those names. I should have thought it through more first, but that was a mistake on my part, and I legit groaned at myself for doing something that dumb. It’s part of the reason that I advised against the Lurcher claiming in PMs, just in case they were one of the players that PM’d me already. If you turned out to be an eliminator I would have been very upset at myself if I got them killed that way.

Oh, I’m not elim reading that post. I’m elim reading the situation. I actually found what you pointed out about Stick very compelling, but with everything else going on and the possibility of you being evil, I can’t necessarily trust your assessment. If you are indeed evil,  it could very well be you trying to get a mislynch on Stick. There’s also a possibility about distancing but I find that less likely than V-E or E-V.

I do see where the Stick thing is coming from, but they replied and you still didn’t acknowledge it, and from what I remember their answer was fairly reasonable, if NAI. The point is I have no good reason to trust either one of you, but if one of you is evil, I can maybe trust the other a little. I do find the fact you glossed over both Snip’s and Stick’s responses as problematic regardless, which puts you in a more negative light.

Not to mention that as you go through posts like this, suspicion kind of inherently builds. It’s hard not to let reads from previous posts not color future posts in a similar light. So I will admit that might have been a factor in it coming off like that.

I don’t disagree that you could just be a rushed villager. I just don’t know enough to say right now, but I’ll admit it doesn’t look good.

While I am wary of Stick because they PM’d me after, that doesn’t mean they are definitely an elim. It’s a factor I’m keeping in mind. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

49 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I dont like the sudden apperant change of opinion on Stick by Aman. Aman told me he was suspicious of Stick and one other due to PMing him imidiately after he survived the night. 

 

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

While I am wary of Stick because they PM’d me after, that doesn’t mean they are definitely an elim. It’s a factor I’m keeping in mind. 

Why’s PMing suspicious? After the general suspicion surrounding your NK survival, people PMing you asking about it shouldn’t really be something odd. 

[Furamirionind]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Why’s PMing suspicious? After the general suspicion surrounding your NK survival, people PMing you asking about it shouldn’t really be something odd. 

As a villager, would you be likely to PM Aman after he survives an attack?
  Yes, though you would also be likely to PM him pretty much anytime.

As a villager, would you be likely to PM Aman before he survives an attack?
  Yes, though you would also be likely to PM him pretty much anytime.

As an elim, would you be likely to PM Aman after he survives an attack?
  Yes, Learn why he survived, look like a helpful village, etc.

As a villager elim, would you be likely to PM Aman before he survives an attack?
  No, It's a waste of a PM, and assuming no WGG/elim!Aman, the elims have no reason to believe Aman would survive.

Edit:

Aman's suspicion of me trying to figure out how connected he is before killing him is, I admit, a good reason for an elim to PM him before he dies though.
Though in my case, I have historically (I personally believe) used PMs pretty well with living players. It is where I try to pocket players, and it is where I put a ton of effort trying to misdirect people, and I have a high success rate based on previous games. Me creating a PM with someone I want to kill as an elim, is a waste of my abilities.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

38 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Care to take this to PMs?

Sure? Also, my request that anyone who doesn’t have a better target to PM to please PM me still stands. 

@Snipexe @Araris Valerian @Young Bard I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on Fura and Aman, if you would. 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Hi folks, I'm trying to keep up with the thread and will try to get some good analysis out there, but I'm kind of slammed at work right now.  In the meantime, I'm not going to to a second day without a vote.

Assuming Aman's votecount is correct, we're sitting here before my vote:

• Devotary (3) - Sart, Drake, Ventyl
• Fura (3) - Stick, Fifth, Lum
• Stick (1) - Fura
• Sart (1) - Araris

Reads on people involved in the lynch so far:

• Devotary: neutral; lean village
• Sart: neutral - I rather enjoy how Sart is able to effectively incorporate game play into RP.
• Drake: lean elim - One of the main reasons I'm leaning elim on Drake is due to the potential for pocketing.  Drake has twice brought up concerns specifically with me and managed to change those into village reads pretty quickly. 
• Ventyl: neutral
• Fura: neutral; lean elim - So, this is where I'm sitting with Fura...but after Fura's performance last game where pretty much everyone was reading village.Fura, I'm actually wondering if the fact that I'm leaning elim.Fura means that village.Fura is more likely
• Stick: strong village
• Fifth: lean village
• Araris: neutral

Somehow Aman is flying a bit under the radar and hasn't voted yet, but my Aman impression currently is *ninja Stick* neutral; lean village

That leaves the following people somewhat unaccounted for:

• @Young Bard - hey, how's it going?  Get a chance to catch up yet?
• @Aonar - sounds like you aren't going to be around for the rest of the cycle *Ninja Fura*
• @Snipexe - you had a chance to look at the thread and Aman's non-death yet?
• @Straw - I have to agree your first comment today read a bit elim-esque, and your second was rather NAI.  Anything reads you want to get out?
• @xinoehp512 - What wagon are you falling off here?  Struggling to be engaged in the game?  If so, what can I (or anyone else) do to help?  If you need more RP happening, no one seems to have had any information on my identity yet, so maybe you could jump in there?

And with that, I've spent way too much time on this considering the amount of work I actually need to get done :/  Hopefully that's helpful for people to see where I stand right now.  (Had to hop into a short meeting in the middle of this as well, so I'm hoping my thought processes make sense.)

Oh, as for a vote?  I might as well go with where my strongest suspicion lies.  Drake - if that doesn't take off at all and the lynch remains between Devotary and Fura, I'll likely switch over to Fura between the two.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Somehow Aman is flying a bit under the radar and hasn't voted yet, but my Aman impression currently is *ninja Stick* neutral; lean village

I'm waiting to do at least one more isolation today before I vote. I was leaning on voting for Devotary at the start of the cycle, but after isolating Fura, I'm seriously considering joining that lynch. Sadly I'm on a bus for another three hours, and while it does have wifi, I barely have room to type. This post is, what? 6 sentences long? And it's nearly taken me 5 minutes to write it, so I might just save the real work for when I'm back home.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Wait a second... I didnt try to "sniff out your PMs". I offered an honest trade.

You are upset I false claimed to you? Honestly, before I even false claimed, you offered me an unequal trade for my role. Your role + PMs just for my role. I found this suspicious and told you such. You think I would roleclaim to someone I specifically found suspicious? 

Next, you are being VERY misleading here. Idk if you made your plan before or after I roleclaimed, but you didnt wait on my approval before taking action. Dont blame me for that...

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I dont like the sudden apperant change of opinion on Stick by Aman. Aman told me he was suspicious of Stick and one other due to PMing him imidiately after he survived the night. 

I think Lum-Stick-Aman elim team. Though Aman has done a lot of distancing with Stick, so I am not certain if they can be on the same team. Perhaps one of them is a Kandra...

I find this bit of Fura's post to be rather suspicious, especially the bit about the elim team composition. I'm hesitant to make a call on Fifth's PM role trade, but that whole interaction makes me think that one of Fifth/Fura is more likely to be elim.

I'm sad that Sart @Sart and @xinoehp512 haven't chimed in at all, but I think it makes more sense for me to vote on Fura now. I don't have any sort of elim read on Devotary.

(this post in in response to Fifth pinging me about Fura and Aman)

I don't really have time to do analysis of Aman right now, but I don't think he stands out too much to me. Just normal Aman stuff.