Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Furamirionind]

I dont want either drake or Ark dead, but I also dont want to last minute vote swing...

Edit ninjad

Edited June 12, 2019 by Furamirionind

[StrikerEZ he/him]

That's it! Turn is over! I'll start sending out PMs, then Night 1 will be posted.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Night 1 - An Unfortunate Turn of Events

Draff had needed to leave during the discussions over the course of the day. He couldn’t stand to be around all those people as they turned on each other, one by one. We’re supposed to be a team, he thought to himself, yet now we’re all so quick to judge every word we say, in case someone thinks we might be a rebel.
Already, there had been a slight panic as several people had started to question Wilco over how he’d phrased one of his sentences. Someone had even thrown a folded up piece of green paper at him during the chaos. Eventually, the crowd calmed down, but it quickly spread to two targets, Thomas and Arr.
When Draff came back to the central room, he found Arr sprawled across the ground, his face bloodied. Quickly, he ran over to check on him. Thankfully, he was still breathing and seemed to be conscious, though it looked like he’d have to be sent home soon.
“Why did they do this to you?” Draff asked him.
Arr coughed, struggling to catch his breath. “They thought I must’ve been a rebel, so they ganged up on me.” He paused as coughed again, this time harder, “They wouldn’t believe me, no matter how many times I told them I was innocent.”
Draff sighed. He spent a little while longer questioning Arr, but he’d been beat up pretty badly and couldn’t remember exactly who had started the beating. Finally, Draff helped get Arr to the infirmary so he could be patched up and sent home.
Draff had a sinking feeling that tonight could be even worse.

~

Walin(1): Ark1002
Mrake Darshall(2): Araris Valerian, Fifth Scholar
Ark1002(2): Mrake Darshall, Ventyl
Devotary of Spontaneity(1): Sart
Ark1002 was lynched! They were a Police Mistborn!

PMs are open, but remember that each player may only make one new PM each turn. Remember to include me and Mailliw in all PMs, and group PMs ARE allowed. This turn will last 24 hours and will end at 7:30 PM CDT on June 12.

Player List: 

Spoiler

1. Amanuensis, aka "Detective Wilco Renaud"
2. Ark1002, aka "Arr K. Thousantoo" Police Mistborn
3. Lumgol, aka "TBD"
4. Fifth Scholar, aka “Serdig Darillid”
5. Araris Valerian, aka “Fade”
6. Ventyl, aka “Lafay Etteax”
7. Furamirionind, aka "Furamirionind"
8. Rathmaskal
9. Devotary of Spontaneity, aka "Sindale"
10. Sart
11. _Stick_, aka "Stick"
12. Walin, aka " Nedar Latfin"
13. Aonar, aka "Ainm Lathair"
14. Snipexe
15. Straw, aka "Mertis tyl Loesp"
16. Drake Marshall, aka “Thomas Blackburn”
17. xinoehp512

 

Edited June 12, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

...ouch. That is not what I hoped to return to.

Right. First, this somewhat strengthens my suspicions of Drake if he was in any sort of contact with Ark—I see Ventyl’s vote as a lot cleaner than Drake’s, and would certainly like to hear more from him now. Who did you PM yesterday, Drake? Same goes for you as well, Ventyl. If you’d prefer not to share it’s understandable, but sharing might go a long way towards us knowing that you didn’t have evil intent in voting for Ark if he claimed something incriminating. (Although to think of it they might be elim teammates with somebody else who contacted Ark, so perhaps this isn’t the best idea unless everyone claimed, which I wouldn’t advocate.)

Next, if Drake does prove to be evil, we need to take a long, hard look at the people who abstained from voting at the end of last cycle and let two random votes kill what’s likely our best remaining role. While the odds of a coinshot are depressingly low, perhaps a Kandra will be willing to target Drake tonight? :> If Drake is evil, Rath is a likely partner, with Devotary perhaps being with the two of them as well. 

[Furamirionind]

Well... that's bad. Lynching MB D1... and there almost certainly isnt a second one unless they are an elim/Kandra.

At least this means we dont have to worry about people claiming MB when they survive a lynch.

If you are a MB, I encourage you to PM me and tell me now. Otherwise i wont trust you if you claim after surviving a lynch.

Edit:

@Fifth Scholar I am less inclined to think Drake an elim, if he was, surely the tie would have been broken to kill Ark... I think this was a VV lynch.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If you are a MB, I encourage you to PM me and tell me now. Otherwise i wont trust you if you claim after surviving a lynch.

Why you? This seems heavily suspicious; how are you any more trustworthy than another player that a remaining Mistborn ought to claim? 

@Furamirionind, justifying a third vote on Ark would prove difficult, as the lynch had zero logical basis, and would make whoever cast the vote look suspicious as Braize. With Drake also not really around for the end of the cycle, the Elim team may have also had a more disorganised response to the Drake lynch were he among their number. Another possibility is that Drake is the Kandra, and was evil for the reasons I mentioned but had no team to rally behind him. Or he’s a villager who just got on the wrong side of a lot of things, but I’m inclined to view him as suspicious for the reasons I mentioned at the end of yesterday.

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Why you? This seems heavily suspicious; how are you any more trustworthy than another player that a remaining Mistborn ought to claim? 

@Furamirionind, justifying a third vote on Ark would prove difficult, as the lynch had zero logical basis, and would make whoever cast the vote look suspicious as Braize. With Drake also not really around for the end of the cycle, the Elim team may have also had a more disorganised response to the Drake lynch were he among their number. Another possibility is that Drake is the Kandra, and was evil for the reasons I mentioned but had no team to rally behind him. Or he’s a villager who just got on the wrong side of a lot of things, but I’m inclined to view him as suspicious for the reasons I mentioned at the end of yesterday.

Why me? Because I dont believe there to be anyone more or less trustworthy than myself at the moment, and they have to claim to someone. Otherwise I might direct a potential MB to them.

If they dont claim to anyone, I will do the best in my ability to lynch the next person who claims MB.

You can speculate on Drake being an SK, but as of now, I dont see any good reason why I should believe that. There is a 1/15 chance that what you say is correct.

[Lumgol she/her]

I PMed Aman last turn, @Amanuensis can confirm.

@Furamirionind, why are you expecting a mistborn to claim to you if it's been stated that they're likely elim or kandra?

Edited June 12, 2019 by Lumgol
at'd Fura

[Sart he/him]

"Cowards."
"Well, it's hard to..."
"Doesn't matter."
"Well, what would you have..."
"Voted."
"On..."
"Anyone."
"..."
"..."
"So what now?"
"Analyze, listen, and wait."

[Aonar he/him]

Popping in to note this quickly; I have a job now (yay) but it's 12 hour days (less yay) so I might not be around tonnes. Like I said earlier, still hoping to be around enough to contribute; but this is part of the reason I was reluctant to sign up for this. Don't expect anything from me except for weekends and like 7-10pm CDT, basically.

[Stick. she/her]

First of all, please don’t think I don’t care about this game enough to even vote.:P Timezone shenanigans happened...I thought the turn would last an hour longer than it did. Google tells me 8:30 PM CDT is 5:30 AM my time, so I thought I’d get a little sleep and wake up about an hour before rollover to check the lynch status and vote. But I got up at quarter to 5 and...the thread was closed. Apparently 8:30 CDT is 4:30 AM...Don’t know why google decided to mislead me.:( If I were on on time I probs would’ve voted for Drake. Not quite cuz I found him suspicious but because it would’ve given us more info than an ark lynch. (Because Drake had posted more posts of substance than ark had, so we’d have had more to go off from after the flip).

And while it’s super unfortunate that we lost a village Mistborn, I think I’m gonna soft clear Drake now. I don’t think the elims would have just sat back and watched the RNG decide whether elim!drake got lynched. And if they did somehow get info about Ark’s role through PMs, I’d expect there to be at least three votes on ark. But again, if we’re dealing with village!drake then the elims probably wouldn’t have cared which one of the two got lynched D1 (since they could’ve just Nk’d ark) and thus left it at the tie. This is assuming they knew about ark’s role, of course.

also Fura’s post from last cycle makes me a little suspicious: 

Quote

I dont want either drake or Ark dead, but I also dont want to last minute vote swing...

Sounds very neutral, and like something an elim would say to escape suspicion, I think. 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

What was going on with this place?  He still had no idea who he was or how he'd gotten there...only that it seemed likely that he was a police officer based on the uniform he was wearing.  He'd had a few people give him cautious nods so far, but no one had given him enough of an opening to get much information out of them.  Then, they'd decided to beat one of the other officers half to death?!  He got a sinking feeling that was how he'd ended up in this situation, unable to remember anything.

~~

OK, so elim.Drake doesn't make much sense to me either, although I didn't actually see who was online around rollover and could have affected the final vote tally.  (I need to start paying a bit more attention to that)  Based on posts, me, Devotary, and Fura were all online....and all decided to not vote that close to rollover...  So, that definitely doesn't clear any of us to any degree unless Drake is an elim.  (At that point, I think we'd all get soft cleared from being elims...but kandra is still outstanding)

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

...ouch. That is not what I hoped to return to.

Right. First, this somewhat strengthens my suspicions of Drake if he was in any sort of contact with Ark—I see Ventyl’s vote as a lot cleaner than Drake’s, and would certainly like to hear more from him now. Who did you PM yesterday, Drake? Same goes for you as well, Ventyl. If you’d prefer not to share it’s understandable, but sharing might go a long way towards us knowing that you didn’t have evil intent in voting for Ark if he claimed something incriminating. (Although to think of it they might be elim teammates with somebody else who contacted Ark, so perhaps this isn’t the best idea unless everyone claimed, which I wouldn’t advocate.)

Next, if Drake does prove to be evil, we need to take a long, hard look at the people who abstained from voting at the end of last cycle and let two random votes kill what’s likely our best remaining role. While the odds of a coinshot are depressingly low, perhaps a Kandra will be willing to target Drake tonight? :> If Drake is evil, Rath is a likely partner, with Devotary perhaps being with the two of them as well. 

I'm trying to fight the urge to say I told you so, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel a little vindicated about my stance on not lynching anyone yesterday

On a serious note, it's very unfortunate we lost our Mistborn already. If there's no Coinshot like we've speculated, and if there's no other Mistborn (which I'm fairly confident about, given the strength of the role), then we're going to have to rely on lynches alone, going forward. Even so, I would like to discuss who a potential Villigante should target, if we want them to target anyone at all.

Generally I would support them going after the other lynch candidate, but I really don't agree with the reasons presented about Drake and I'm reading him as Village independently anyway. Since I didn't previously realize that it's two cycles of consistent inactivity to get people filtered out, I actually wouldn't be opposed to a Villagante taking out some of the players who aren't participating. Xino in particular comes to mind if only because in response to my prodding, the only thing he posted was a greeting and a bunch of emojis. That said, I don't think N1 is an appropriate time for a Villagante to start killing, so I'd rather them abstain for now. What are other people's thoughts on the matter?

Ventyl seems fine so far, though I'm not entirely sure where Fura's 100% * 99% village read comes from. Regardless, they are new and should be left be for at least another two cycles after this one.

I do harbor suspicion of those who were present at turn over and chose not to act. I agree with the assessment that it was a V/V lynch, which means eliminators would have no problem leaving things be. I find that a lot more likely than Drake being evil and people not wanting to vote for Ark to prevent suspicion falling on their heads for saving him.

15 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I PMed Aman last turn, @Amanuensis can confirm.

@Furamirionind, why are you expecting a mistborn to claim to you if it's been stated that they're likely elim or kandra?

I can indeed confirm. I promise I'll reply again soon. I'm visiting a friend on the Croatian coast for the next few days, so my activity may be sporadic.

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

...

And while it’s super unfortunate that we lost a village Mistborn, I think I’m gonna soft clear Drake now. I don’t think the elims would have just sat back and watched the RNG decide whether elim!drake got lynched. And if they did somehow get info about Ark’s role through PMs, I’d expect there to be at least three votes on ark. But again, if we’re dealing with village!drake then the elims probably wouldn’t have cared which one of the two got lynched D1 (since they could’ve just Nk’d ark) and thus left it at the tie. This is assuming they knew about ark’s role, of course.

also Fura’s post from last cycle makes me a little suspicious: 

Sounds very neutral, and like something an elim would say to escape suspicion, I think. 

Mostly quoting this to say that I'm mostly on the same page, Stick. Fura is someone I want to take a closer look going forward. In the event that I die tonight, I hope people will examine those who were present at the end of the turn and did nothing.

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

OK, so elim.Drake doesn't make much sense to me either, although I didn't actually see who was online around rollover and could have affected the final vote tally.  (I need to start paying a bit more attention to that)  Based on posts, me, Devotary, and Fura were all online....and all decided to not vote that close to rollover...  So, that definitely doesn't clear any of us to any degree unless Drake is an elim.  (At that point, I think we'd all get soft cleared from being elims...but kandra is still outstanding)

Between the three, I think Fura's oddities this game may be an example of Too Wolfy to be Wolf. Furthermore, my knee jerk reaction to Rath pointing out Devotary and Fura alongside him is that he's not trying to hide and thus more likely a villager. But if I analyze that further, it's probably NAI since an eliminator would likely be more conscious of that fact and bring it up anyway.

I still haven't looked into Devotary like I said I would yesterday, and I'm sorry about that. I'll do my best to examine their posts and inform the thread of my findings before this turn ends.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

And while it’s super unfortunate that we lost a village Mistborn, I think I’m gonna soft clear Drake now. I don’t think the elims would have just sat back and watched the RNG decide whether elim!drake got lynched. And if they did somehow get info about Ark’s role through PMs, I’d expect there to be at least three votes on ark. But again, if we’re dealing with village!drake then the elims probably wouldn’t have cared which one of the two got lynched D1 (since they could’ve just Nk’d ark) and thus left it at the tie. This is assuming they knew about ark’s role, of course.

I don't really see why Ark would have claimed Mistborn to anyone D1. I'm not sure if Tineyes can target dead players, but I wouldn't expect knowing who Ark had PMs with would point to an elim who lynched Ark for his role. There doesn't appear to have been any vote manipulation, so unless Fifth and/or Araris were smoked, it appears that nobody attempted to save Drake.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I do harbor suspicion of those who were present at turn over and chose not to act. I agree with the assessment that it was a V/V lynch, which means eliminators would have no problem leaving things be. I find that a lot more likely than Drake being evil and people not wanting to vote for Ark to prevent suspicion falling on their heads for saving him.

Who would you have voted for had you been around for rollover? I don't think you expressed any particular suspicion of Drake, but would you have finalised the lynch on Drake for information, gone after Ark to lynch a less active player, tried to start a new lynch ~15 minutes before rollover, or just let the tied lynch stand?

[Stick. she/her]

16 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't really see why Ark would have claimed Mistborn to anyone D1. I'm not sure if Tineyes can target dead players, but I wouldn't expect knowing who Ark had PMs with would point to an elim who lynched Ark for his role.

Yeah I was mostly just saying that in response to Fifth's comment about ark's role possibly being revealed in PMs.

[Walin he/him]

If there are any pinch-hitters, I think I'm going to have to duck out. I don't have as much time as I thought I did, so I won't be able to do any analysis or anything before I die.

[Furamirionind]

Quote

Checking in! I’m enjoying Aman’s villager bucks, they seem like a cool idea, though a little biased, and more a way of quantifying reads then anything else.

@Snipexe What about Villager Bucks™ makes you biased towards them? Was this discussed somewhere I don't know about?

Quote

@Devotary of Spontaneity's posts feel a bit off to me... I'm not sure why, and I can't really pinpoint it. But there's not really something that particularly sticks out or warrants a vote. So you're staying neutral for now, and I'm keeping an eye on you.

Which post do you take issue with, and what about it troubles you?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Whoops. Turns out I wasn't online at rollover.

Still, if I was online, I wouldn't have changed my vote. I'm rather attached to my own life, and putting me up for the lynch would force my hand. And even if Ark had claimed mistborn, I probably would have been more likely to lynch them because of that (a village role that can pretty much clear themselves of being an eliminator and then subsequently survive attacks just didn't seem all that likely to me, but apparently I was wrong, which is kind of scary if other factions are balanced against that and we don't have our mistborn anymore). So, while it's a pretty bad outcome, I'm pretty sure that would have happened either way.

17 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

this somewhat strengthens my suspicions of Drake if he was in any sort of contact with Ark

Ark, in PM: "Drake I'm a village mistborn probably keep me alive"

Drake, in-thread: "So I feel like lynching Ark today"

Think about what you are suggesting. As chance had it, Ark wasn't online after my vote, otherwise they probably would have claimed and probably used pewter to survive. But how do you propose I could have known Ark would never have been online for a good 24 hours? If Ark had claimed mistborn to me in a PM, all it would have taken is for Ark to be online at some point in the next 24 hours to notice that I'm lynching him after he claimed village mistborn to me, and I would be finished.

For what you are suggesting to be possible, either Ark or myself would have had to have made a fairly serious error in judgement: Ark by telling me both that he was a village mistborn and that he absolutely would not be around for the next cycle to stop a lynch on him, or me by not considering the massive risks of pulling something like this without a way of knowing Ark wouldn't have been online.

Even if Ark had claimed mistborn to elim!Drake in a PM, I could have night-killed him without exposing myself (I would probably wait a cycle in case he was baiting me). Or if the elim team has vote manips (which I think is most likely the case, given 3-4 elims each with a high probability of having some kind of role) that would have been an even safer and more reliable way to do it. For that matter, the fact that vote manips or other voters didn't break the tie to protect me is a strong hint that I'm a villager.

 

Considering that this was a tied lynch between villagers, I am more inclined to suspect the people who distanced themselves from the lynch, kept their head down and hands off, because they were okay with how things were going.

(I would hesitate to call consuming half the thread in D1 lynch discussion "keeping one's head down" so I'm not suspecting Aman on account of that, although I wouldn't say it makes Aman more trustworthy either)

In other words, I am looking for people who:

• Were reasonably active last cycle
• Didn't vote
• Didn't cite objection to the idea of a D1 lynch as a reason for not voting
• Don't have a history (that I know of) of avoiding D1 lynches

People who could maybe fit that description:

• Devotary
• Rath
• Fura(?) told me they were receptive to the idea of no D1 lynch in a PM so I'm less inclined to suspect Fura for not participating

It might've been dumb to start making suspect lists on D1 when there isn't that much criteria yet (so is N1 too early? ), but I'm a firm proponent in the efficacy of suspect lists. It gives other people a lot of information about your connections to other players, and I think it's a pretty good way to catch eliminator teams.

It's a shame because I previously had soft trust reads on both Rath and Devotary. Guess that puts them back into neutral read, maybe slightly elim read.

 

I don't think I have much more to comment on, so peace out.

Oh look, I got ninja'd by a bunch of people.

[Snipexe he/him]

25 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Snipexe What about Villager Bucks™ makes you biased towards them? Was this discussed somewhere I don't know about

I meant that they are biased in that Aman was the one handing them out (at least at the time), and so who he reads as village, or who he thought contributed to the village, is who gets the currency. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm not sure if Tineyes can target dead players

They can't.

[Furamirionind]

19 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Fura(?) told me they were receptive to the idea of no D1 lynch in a PM so I'm less inclined to suspect Fura for not participating

Not trying to argue that I am an elim this game, however, the reason I was receptive to a no-lynch last game, was purely because I haven't been in a game with a no lynch. After being in one, I didn't like having D2 basically being a D1 lynch, and I don't think it is a good idea if it can be helped.

Basically, elims get lots of information for N1 and N2 kills, while the village doesn't get much info until N2. The solution, is for everyone to go inactive until D2, but then no one who died N1 will have played the game, and strategically going inactive is the best idea to discourage fun I have ever heard.

Basically, I think no-lynches are bad because of MR35, even though I was willing then.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

27 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

(I would hesitate to call consuming half the thread in D1 lynch discussion "keeping one's head down" so I'm not suspecting Aman on account of that, although I wouldn't say it makes Aman more trustworthy either)

In other words, I am looking for people who:

• Were reasonably active last cycle
• Didn't vote
• Didn't cite objection to the idea of a D1 lynch as a reason for not voting
• Don't have a history (that I know of) of avoiding D1 lynches

Wait, why?  I'm having trouble following this logic.  You seem to be specifically looking at people who were fairly active D1 but didn't vote and yet Aman doesn't fit the bill?  Your last two bullets seem especially designed to remove Aman from your list.

Edit: Side note, I chuckled at your conversation with Ark.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Rathmaskal
Chuckle

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

7 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Wait, why?  I'm having trouble following this logic.  You seem to be specifically looking at people who were fairly active D1 but didn't vote and yet Aman doesn't fit the bill?  Your last two bullets seem especially designed to remove Aman from your list.

People who are trying to keep their heads down, which is what distancing from the lynch entails, don't do what Aman did.

More generally, it's just statistics. If so-and-so person always opposes the D1 lynch or just generally doesn't participate in it, it's not really a useful data point to know that they did it in this game too. It's a lot more interesting if somebody is acting hands-off when sometimes they do get involved, and we can wonder why they chose not to this time.

Edited June 12, 2019 by MrakeDarshall
typo

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Hmmm, OK...definitely don't think I was 'keeping my head down' D1...

For reference, Aman and Stick both were highly active D1, didn't vote, and both voted D1 in the last LG.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Well, this... this is not good. I could’ve stopped that vote on Ark and got Drake lynched, because even if he is Village it would’ve saved our Mistborn. I suggest that if anybody is a Village coinshot, PM somebody who you think is village, and if it’s me I’d be willing to role trade. If there is no Coinshot, then my offer is not valid. 

Yet again, thank you everybody for giving me mercy.