Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Haelbarde said:

I guess @Furamirionind and @Snipexe - what point in the last cycle did Striker PM you about the scan?

I never PM’d Snip. And I PM’d Fura...maybe a couple hours before the reveal in thread? I can’t really remember. That day all kinda blurred together for me since I had a bad day at work. 

[Haelbarde he/him]

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I never PM’d Snip. And I PM’d Fura...maybe a couple hours before the reveal in thread? I can’t really remember. That day all kinda blurred together for me since I had a bad day at work. 

How did Snip relate to the chain then?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

15 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

How did Snip relate to the chain then?

I dunno. What’s he claiming he knew again?

[Haelbarde he/him]

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I dunno. What’s he claiming he knew again?

 

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

[...] And it’s possible that one of the people in the chain (me, Devotary, Snip, and technically Fura since I told him about the scan as well) is corrupt. I’m not willing to bet a lynch on either of those things yet, but we’ll see how things go once I get off work. 

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Haelbarde I literally have no idea why I put Snip there. I just checked and I never made a PM with him. Fura did ask me when I PM’d Snip in the PM between me and Fura, so maybe I somehow imagined that I actually did?

Oh, I think I meant to say whoever revealed the result that Lum was scanned as corrupt to the thread instead of Snip. Was that you, Hael?

[Haelbarde he/him]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Haelbarde I literally have no idea why I put Snip there. I just checked and I never made a PM with him. Fura did ask me when I PM’d Snip in the PM between me and Fura, so maybe I somehow imagined that I actually did?

Oh, I think I meant to say whoever revealed the result that Lum was scanned as corrupt to the thread instead of Snip. Was that you, Hael?

That would make a little more sense. And yes, that was me.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

That would make a little more sense. And yes, that was me.

Yeah, that must’ve been what I meant. Sorry about the confusion.

[Furamirionind]

53 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

It seemed important information to know - if he only sent the PM in the hour or two prior to that, then it's highly suspect and would read more of an eliminator trying to get out of a lynch. If it had been sent much earlier and just passing through another or player or two is what made it take so long to reach me, meaning it had been initiated long before he was under any pressure, then I'd be much more willing to trust Striker. If Devotary had said that it'd only been 2 or 3 hours before, I'd have put a vote on Striker. Obviously Devotary indicated that the PM came way before any votes in thread on Striker so we went with the Lumgol lynch. Unless Striker and Devotary are both evil, and were trying to win village favour. I guess @Furamirionind and @Snipexe - what point in the last cycle did Striker PM you about the scan?

Striker PMed me at the same time I retracted my vote on him xD

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I am staunchly against a Gaea lynch, and am going to vote on Wilson. Signing off for the cycle.

[Arrae]

An analysis of Lum, for further leads:

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Hello, checking in. I've only skimmed the thread so far, but I'm here. 

I feel like it would benefit the elims more if PM's were closed (which would prevent village cooperation, pooling of resources, etc), so I'm a bit reluctant to lynch Wilson. It could definitely be the case that Wilson is corrupt and the fact that lynching her closes PM's is meant to dissuade us from doing that. If there's any constable I would suggest lynching today, it would... probably be Joe? Lynching Gaea today would be a waste of her ability, since there's no one in jail right now. Although not being able to buy items would not be fun, I think it's a better alternative than losing PM's. Besides, the elims would better be able to pool their resources and coordinate which items for everyone to use. So, as much as I don't like the idea of not being able to buy items, I think that it'll probably be of more benefit to the village. If anyone thinks otherwise, I would love to hear their explanations  

This post...doesn't line up? Lum votes on Joe with no reasoning given and has a long spiel about Gaea that's inconclusive/waffley of her value to the village?

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Alright now, Striker, please tell me why you decided to frame me. 

Was it because you regretted your posts and knew suspicion was going to come onto you?

With your voting on yourself to make sure Snipexe wouldn't be lynched, I assumed you would be less willing to deflect attention away from yourself onto another villager.

(edit: @StrikerEZ)

Lum counterclaims against Striker, and now that she's flipped elim, this definitely feels more like the act of an elim who tried to bluff things out.

I don't think it's likely that Striker is an elim who tried to bus Lum to get out of a lynch. Lum only had one post before this, and was under little to no suspicion. Why would an elim try to save themselves from a lynch by bussing another one who was flying under the radar? There aren't any important roles to protect. Additionally, this would take a fair amount of effort to set up -- one of the elims would've had to scan Lum the cycle before. Why go to all of this effort? It seems a little absurd to think that the elims could know that one of their own would come under fire the next cycle and decide to counter that by bussing another one of their own.

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Oof. I'll have to... um... actually closely read the thread now... welp... uhhhhhh

@Furamirionind Have a few sentences for now

Elandera's defense of Striker seems pretty village. I imagine an elim would have tried to tunnel on somebody else (assuming Striker was elim), for instance, voting for me when Hael posted my "scan" results.

Alvron: I'm definitely liking that he has a lot of content, and I'd say I agree with his argument about lynching players rather than constables, especially if there are a lot of strong suspects at the moment. As I've mentioned before, I'm a big fan of PM's and definitely wouldn't want to lose them. I'd be somewhat more ok with losing the black market, but I'd definitely prefer to keep that for now.  However, he's being pretty forceful with his arguments... I'd expect such from either a player under a lot of pressure: either a suspected player, which he isn't, or a player who has a lot of motivation to not have one of the constables lynched. This makes sense, because even if we lynched a village constable today, we would know which constable is corrupt the next day, so it would benefit elim!Alvron to really drive in his argument.

Also, Alvron has said a lot of other things which I haven't really looked into as much; that part just happened to stand out to me as I was skimming the thread XD

 

I'm curious why Lum picked Elandera and Alv. Lum has a long opinion of Alv, and a much shorter one for Elandera. Personally, I think it's possible that she tried to point out Elandera but also in a fairly noncommittal way, as a form of distancing.

I'll take a look at Elandera in my next post.

[Bugsy he/him]

15 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

There aren't any important roles to protect.

Are we sure about that? Joe is... rather known for his love of secrets, and Lum flipped as Kleptomaniac.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

As an extension of my earlier argument, what would constitute “solid evidence” that one of the two is corrupt? The writeups aren’t revealing anything, and conjecture is the best we have to go on. In effect, I feel like those taking the stance that we don’t have enough information on the constables are simply trying to dodge the necessity of taking an actual stance here on which one is guilty. We will never have enough information to definitively know which Constable to kill. The best we can do is take the best guess we can based on what we do know, and in my mind, that’s a Gaea lynch. But postponing on the grounds that we don’t have enough information is simply deceptive—we never will, and using this logic will lead to continual delay with untrustworthy lynches dominating the information we do get on players. 

Personally, I'm not advocating we wait because I think new evidence will come to light (although, there's a small chance it will). I just want more time to think. Having time to think about things for a while is very underrated in QFs. There's a reason why elims have noticeably worse win rates in LGs than in QFs.

26 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Are we sure about that? Joe is... rather known for his love of secrets, and Lum flipped as Kleptomaniac.

That was one of my first questions to Joe. He said there are no secrets.

 

EDIT: I had forgotten about my vote tally script. Useful stuff.

Vote Tally
Arraenae (3): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine, StrikerEZ
xxGaea (2): Elandera, Fifth Scholar
little wilson (1): Araris Valerian

Edited August 7, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I really don’t like how close those votes are...it feels like there’s a setup for vote manip to determine this lynch. 

[Alvron he/him]

Hate to play devils advocate and I know it's late in the cycle but what if the flip was wrong.  The more I think about it, the more I can't see why Lum didn't offload their items.  Passing comes before everything else so why not give them to another elim?  Lum had plenty of time to do so as the lynch was turned to them with hours to go in the cycle and they did post a couple of times afterwards so there isn't any reason not to ditch the Ledger at very least.  Not having the Ledger would likely make us question if it's a true flip or not on it's own.  But they did have one which supports Strikers story.

I'm very likely overthinking it but I feel really uncomfortable with how that turned out.  If Elim, getting rid of the Ledger would be the best option but being Village they wouldn't know who to pass it to that could be trusted.  There is a third option in that Striker or an Elim passed a Ledger to Lum before they got lynched to insure one would be revealed.  I'm kinda ruling that one out though as it just leads to an IKYK that even I don't want to toy with.


As for todays lynch, I'm not voting for Gaea under any circumstances.  In fact I oppose it completely.  If we must lynch a Constable (which I still think is a waste) then I'm voting for Wilson.  I'm really not seeing any reason to lynch Rae.  If anyone can give a proper reason why they think she's suspicious I might be willing to change my vote.

[Furamirionind]

I'm running out of posts!

Don't vote on Rae, don't vote on Wilson, don't vote on Gaea.

It sucks that we don't have real leads right now, and it's so late... Sorry I was so busy all day, but I thought I've made it clear to everyone these are bad options, yet NO ONE is looking at anyone else?

Until I find someone to lynch: I'll take a Fura lynch over anyone currently up for the lynch.

Fura 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Oh gosh, this is not what I wanted to happen one bit.

@Furamirionind please, just vote on Rae. We don’t have enough time to move enough votes over to you right now (assuming Drake would even want to move his vote to you). 

[Furamirionind]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Oh gosh, this is not what I wanted to happen one bit.

@Furamirionind please, just vote on Rae. We don’t have enough time to move enough votes over to you right now (assuming Drake would even want to move his vote to you). 

no

[Kidpen he/him]

5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

don't vote on Wilson, don't vote on Gaea.

Wait what why? Did I miss an argument for not even considering lynching a constable this turn?

[Elandera she/her]

I'm going to sleep in the next half-hour or so, and I don't like any of the lynches either. Gaea. I haven't had the time I wanted to in order to actually analyse the connections there, and I don't want to waste our last Constable lynch. Not yet, at least. We definitely need to consider it next turn, though.

Fura, I'm not voting on you. You read too villagery for me to vote on you, and that's just another wasted lynch, like Rae's would likely end up.

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Oh gosh, this is not what I wanted to happen one bit.

@Furamirionind please, just vote on Rae. We don’t have enough time to move enough votes over to you right now (assuming Drake would even want to move his vote to you). 

I disagree. Rae only has three votes on her, one of which is yours. There are at least three of us online at the moment. We surely can come up with a better target than Rae. What is your reasoning there, anyways?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@DrakeMarshmallow @RayOfSunshine Would you be willing to vote on Fura instead of Rae? I don’t think we’ll be able to get him to switch his vote off himself, and the Constables’ lynches are way too close for comfort to me. 

EDIT: Oh, I got super ninja’d

Edited August 7, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Elandera said:

I'm going to sleep in the next half-hour or so, and I don't like any of the lynches either. Gaea. I haven't had the time I wanted to in order to actually analyse the connections there, and I don't want to waste our last Constable lynch. Not yet, at least. We definitely need to consider it next turn, though.

 

I'll try to get something up by then...

Edit:

People we never lynch today:

StrikerEZ
DrakeMarshmallow
Fifth Scholar
Rae
Haelbarde
Elandera

Edited August 7, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elbereth she/her]

Quote

Knowing Fura (sort of), I would disagree with you. Village!Fura tried something very similar in MR35, trying to get people to claim their attack targets to suss out eliminators. Incidentally, I was the loudest voice in opposition to said accountability, mostly just because I wanted to run around firing destructors at people unchecked, but that is besides the point  I think this is pretty in character for village!Fura.

...

More to the point, I don't like the Joe lynch very much. I say this a lot, probably at least twice in every game I play these days, but this lynch is waay to easy for an eliminator constable. I am the only person defending Joe, and I'm only doing it pretty late in the cycle. As I am Joe's sole defender, the only particularly likely conclusions are that either Joe is innocent, or that both Joe and myself are evil. Unless I am evil, there is no evidence of an eliminator team trying to save corrupt!Joe. In short, if you want to lynch Joe, you might as well lynch me first, instead of wasting one of our very limited number of constable lynches. I'm serious, please go through me if you want to get to him. You can recover from my loss easier than from mislynching a constable.

@DrakeMarshmallow not knowing the game, the difference between that game and this one is that in this one Fura's suggestion was actively detrimental. (Also, my vote on Fura then was more to see how others reacted, and the complete lack of response from anyone but you kind of makes me just suspect them more? We'll see how I feel by the end of this post, but my suspicion there remains.) @Furamirionind unless I missed it, I didn't ever see your response about this either. 

I disagree that an elim team would try to save the corrupt constable particularly strongly? I'm of the opinion that the corrupt constable is nice, but not necessary, for the elims. So they'll be happy if the wrong constable is lynched, but I don't think they'd try to stop a lynch train if one were happening. (Moot point as Joe was good, but still.) 

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....well dang. I was really hoping that Joe was going to be corrupt. I don’t want to lose the black market or the PMs. 

Personally, I don’t know why some people have immediately jumped onto a Snip lynch. Yes, it’s highly likely that the elims would truly to pass around the dagger(s) like that...but come on, that’s so obvious. I’d be more worried about elims trying to frame someone to cause a mislynch this way rather than them trying to horde the daggers.

@StrikerEZ I'm just going to say this post is suspicious, especially the emotions about Joe. I know it's already been said, and my thoughts will come more later, but wanted to add my voice here since it was literally my first thought on reading this post. 

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I suspect El is village. (Based on a wild theory, and not analysis)

@Furamirionind uh, care to share?  I appreciate the support, but am rather curious about this theory of yours. 

 

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No.  Just no.  In my opinion lynching Gaea is the worst thing for us to do as village.  I was willing to let it be a three way tie last cycle as then we would've wasted only one lynch but if we lynch either Wilson or Gaea then another cycle would be wasted.  I just don't understand why finding the corrupt constable is so important.
Yes, our lynch results will be reliable but so what if they aren't.  It's not like we need them.  Finding an elim through connections isn't as reliable as many think it is.  Yet they put great stock in it.  Sure when it works it's great but when it doesn't it can lead on a wild goose chase that causes far more harm than it would good if it did work.

@Alvron I actually have a bit of an elim read on you for once? I feel like you're using wanting the black market, which you'd do regardless of alignment, as an easy way to defend Gaea without having anyone read you badly for it, and you're playing it up a great deal (to the extent it's most of what you're responding to, and your actual reads are a lot sparser). 

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I would be wary of assuming lack of opposition means the target is village, especially as it's still a fairly close lynch and we have six hours until rollover. Ignoring a lynch on a teammate until much closer to rollover is a valid strategy for the elims precisely because there's a tendency for villagers to back off a lynch that seems too easy. That certainly doesn't mean Striker is evil, but he's not in enough danger that there would be a coordinated elim effort to save him if he was.

@Devotary of Spontaneity I just wanted to emphasize this. Lack of opposition on an elim target is not abnormal - it's a lot more valuable for a team member to distance themself in case they're unable to save the lynchee and end up suspected themselves. So it's a tool to use with care. 

 

More responses to come (in a second post because I don't want to lose my multiquote but it's on a different webpage). My general thoughts are that I'm still really conflicted about Striker - I know exactly how unlikely it is he is an elim and am probably tunneling but I'm still reading him really evil. >> I'm also getting elim reads on Fura and Alv (see above) and Fifth. I don't like the Rae lynch. 

More to come in a moment, including my vote. 

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

7 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I disagree. Rae only has three votes on her, one of which is yours. There are at least three of us online at the moment. We surely can come up with a better target than Rae. What is your reasoning there, anyways?

I panicked when I saw Alv and Fura’s votes and didn’t realize other people were on. 

Honestly, there’s not anyone I feel solidly enough about to lynch at this point. Besides for the fact that I really don’t want to lynch a constable. We honestly might have a better shot at lynching an inactive and possibly hitting an elim. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Alvron he/him]

22 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

That was one of my first questions to Joe. He said there are no secrets.

He lied.  There's at least one secret in the OP that I saw.  

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Wait what why? Did I miss an argument for not even considering lynching a constable this turn?

That's a strange thing to see you post. Are you inactive or lurcking?