Quick Fix Game 40: Uneasy Lies

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Arraenae said:

I don't have anywhere better to place my vote now, and we need discussion, so I might as well be belligerent about that Give me your thoughts on El and I might take this vote off.

Well, El’s pretty great. She does some cool dancing stuff every now and then and she’s pretty nice....

Oh you meant in the game.

The only thing she’s done so far is stab vote Wilson. Well, she also said we should probably have some discussion that isn’t just “oh hey look at the new rules,” which is a pretty good point. I definitely was gonna do that. Well, either that or make jokes about how I messed up the first run.

For real though, if I were the spy again, I’d definitely lead the village along in lynches against villagers, get myself lynched, and then dare the elims to assassinate me.

@Elbereth I didn’t include Stick because she’s not in the game anymore, right? And I’m not discounting the fact that, statistically speaking, it is possible that one of/both of Tess and Itiah are elims again. I’m just saying it’s less likely than them not being elims again. Plus, I never said Kas would specifically choose a different team, just that they probably weren’t elims again. Should’ve clarified I was coming at it from a stats perspective. 

Also, why did you only say what if the elim team included Tess and not Itiah in your last sentence? Is there something you know that we don’t???? 

Rae Elbereth

[Elbereth she/her]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

 I didn’t include Stick because she’s not in the game anymore, right? And I’m not discounting the fact that, statistically speaking, it is possible that one of/both of Tess and Itiah are elims again. I’m just saying it’s less likely than them not being elims again. Plus, I never said Kas would specifically choose a different team, just that they probably weren’t elims again. Should’ve clarified I was coming at it from a stats perspective. 

Also, why did you only say what if the elim team included Tess and not Itiah in your last sentence? Is there something you know that we don’t???? 

Rae Elbereth

Totally forgot Stick wasn’t playing, whoops.  And... I see what you’re saying, but the distributions of each game are independent events. You can’t use one to infer information about the other. If I flip a coin twice and the first is heads, the fact that two heads is a lower likelihood overall in the set of combinations of two coin flips does not mean that my second flip is less likely to be heads. Does that make sense? 

It was an example, clearly.  

[Arrae]

2 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Totally forgot Stick wasn’t playing, whoops.  And... I see what you’re saying, but the distributions of each game are independent events. You can’t use one to infer information about the other. If I flip a coin twice and the first is heads, the fact that two heads is a lower likelihood overall in the set of combinations of two coin flips does not mean that my second flip is less likely to be heads. Does that make sense? 

It was an example, clearly.  

It depends on if the GM wants to make things completely different from the first time. There's been at least one game where the rerun was done in a way that everybody got exactly the same roles as before (and this turned into a mess because somebody figured it out, too). El, you should know exactly what I'm talking about.

Let's try not to metagame who's village or not based on the fact that this is a rerun, yeah? Seems like the sort of thing that can be potentially problematic if we look into it too deeply. I'd prefer to catch people on the merits of what they've said and done, not how Kas and Hael decided to redistribute things.

[Elbereth she/her]

I know exactly what you’re talking about and have full confidence that Kas did not repeat that mistake.  But yes, essentially agreed - not only because it could be problematic, but because I don’t think it even contains any actual useful information. 

Thus, my vote.  

[Arrae]

Hmm. Actually, El, I agree with your vote. Assuming a completely random distribution with no GM handpicks, Itiah-Tess is as likely as Itah-Wilson, Bard-Tess, or even Burnt-Alv. It's the type of mistake that an overeager player could make, as a villager seeking to contribute or an elim seeking to appear to contribute. Overall, Striker feels like he's trying too hard now. He's overreacting to things, especially here:

58 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Would an elim ask if you wanted to test RNGesus with him? If you want, I’m totally willing to put both of us up for the lynch. Wilson can tag along too if she wants. 

 

39 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, why did you only say what if the elim team included Tess and not Itiah in your last sentence? Is there something you know that we don’t???? 

Rae Elbereth

Also, he voted on me, and didn't retract it immediately after I responded, so I'm feeling a little salty

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

I still need to figure out who my character is, but I’m not currently in a position to focus enough to do that. So, I won’t be RPing for a bit right now. 

I’d just want to say that the odds of Tess and Itiah being elims again are probably pretty slim. I’m not gonna completely write them off yet, but I won’t be focusing on them much, besides for how other players react to them. I know there’s an inactivity filter, but isn’t that just if you don’t make any actions? It’d be far too easy for an inactive elim to stay alive by not posting, therefore not getting suspected, but still surviving by putting in actions. However, if they did that, we’d be able to tell since they wouldn’t be removed from the game. So I’ll leave the players who haven’t posted yet alone for now. 

 

Ehm...

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

What makes you think it’s any less probable that Tess or Itiah is evil? Why didn’t you include Stick in that list? Why would Kas deliberately pick a team which is composed of entirely separate members instead of letting RNG run its course? I can see saying that all three aren’t evil together, but if the new evil team happened to include Tess, I don’t see why Kas would throw that out. 

Yeah, what Elbereth said, pretty much  I doubt that my past role has any bearing on my current role. If anything, historical information suggests that I'm more likely to be an elim if my last game was an elim, as I tend to be on long village or elim streaks, rather than having it mixed up.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

54 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Totally forgot Stick wasn’t playing, whoops.  And... I see what you’re saying, but the distributions of each game are independent events. You can’t use one to infer information about the other. If I flip a coin twice and the first is heads, the fact that two heads is a lower likelihood overall in the set of combinations of two coin flips does not mean that my second flip is less likely to be heads. Does that make sense? 

It was an example, clearly.  

I mean, yes, if we take just this version of the game in isolation, the probability that Itiah and Tess are elims is just as likely as any other set of elims. But the probability it happens twice in a row is much smaller than it happening once. Never said it was impossible, just unlikely. And once they get on and start interacting with others more, I’d totally be willing to ignore my thoughts about the probabilities if I suspected them. 

50 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Let's try not to metagame who's village or not based on the fact that this is a rerun, yeah? Seems like the sort of thing that can be potentially problematic if we look into it too deeply. I'd prefer to catch people on the merits of what they've said and done, not how Kas and Hael decided to redistribute things.

 

48 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I know exactly what you’re talking about and have full confidence that Kas did not repeat that mistake.  But yes, essentially agreed - not only because it could be problematic, but because I don’t think it even contains any actual useful information. 

Thus, my vote.  

Sorry for bringing it up. I was trying to come up with something that might spark a discussion, and there wasn’t much that had been said yet that I could react to. So I just posted the first thing that came to my mind. 

28 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Hmm. Actually, El, I agree with your vote. Assuming a completely random distribution with no GM handpicks, Itiah-Tess is as likely as Itah-Wilson, Bard-Tess, or even Burnt-Alv. It's the type of mistake that an overeager player could make, as a villager seeking to contribute or an elim seeking to appear to contribute. Overall, Striker feels like he's trying too hard now. He's overreacting to things, especially here:

I’m gonna be completely honest here. I think you’re overthinking my posts way too much.

After I thought too hard last run of the game, I decided today that I wouldn’t really think about things before I started. I was just posting whatever came to the top of my head, disregarding how it might sound from an outside perspective. 

(I’m still down to be lynched, by the way. It’s ultimately your loss [or win if you’re actually an elim])

30 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Also, he voted on me, and didn't retract it immediately after I responded, so I'm feeling a little salty

I mean, your vote is still on me

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Yeah, what Elbereth said, pretty much  I doubt that my past role has any bearing on my current role. If anything, historical information suggests that I'm more likely to be an elim if my last game was an elim, as I tend to be on long village or elim streaks, rather than having it mixed up.

Okay guys, I get it. I had faulty statistical reasoning.  

I’m not gonna lie, this post has me trusting Tess. If Tess was an elim again, would she really bring up the fact that she goes on elim streaks? Granted, maybe not bringing it up would be kind of obvious (if you were aware of that info, which I was not), but still. 

Also, there’s probably a bit of some confirmation bias going on in my head right now.

[Kasimir he/him]

We return you to your regularly-scheduled rule clarifications, and another reminder to familiarise yourself with the updates on Assasination and the Reform Spy.

With that:

1. What do the lucky numbers mean?
They're flavour. This game has more flavouring than a packet of instant noodles.  But if you strike the lottery, give me a call!

2. The Embedded Operative gets different bonuses based on which cycle and which side they make their choice for. Choosing in the third and fifth cycles are mutually exclusive.

3. The third cycle Discovery bonus essentially 'shares' the kill with the Discovery Faction. The Embedded Operative gets it on every other cycle, and the Discovery Faction gets it on every other cycle. (Mutually exclusive.)

4. Is everybody in the same role again? Or was RNG used?

Quote

 And the people gathered before RNGesus and said, "Lord, I know you dispense roles but did you have to make me a vanilla? And why is my role red? Am I a secret Eliminator?"

And the Lord RNGesus made no reply.

"Lord," said the people, "Say to us that you have selected us by chance." And RNGesus stretched out his hand and blessed them with incredibly strange lynch results and unguessable role distros.

"But surely Lord," said the one known as Striker, who was loved by RNGesus, "You didn't make the same people evil again?"

"Yea," said RNGesus, "I am thy god and thou shalt not put thy god to the test," and he smiled and Kas and Hael sighed at another cursed lynch.

Spoiler

PAFO

5. Discovery and the EO know who each other are, if the EO chooses Disco in C3. They just can't communicate.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Kasimir

[Elbereth she/her]

20 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, yes, if we take just this version of the game in isolation, the probability that Itiah and Tess are elims is just as likely as any other set of elims. But the probability it happens twice in a row is much smaller than it happening once. Never said it was impossible, just unlikely. And once they get on and start interacting with others more, I’d totally be willing to ignore my thoughts about the probabilities if I suspected them. 

Okay guys, I get it. I had faulty statistical reasoning.  

I’m not gonna lie, this post has me trusting Tess. If Tess was an elim again, would she really bring up the fact that she goes on elim streaks? Granted, maybe not bringing it up would be kind of obvious (if you were aware of that info, which I was not), but still. 

The probability of it happening twice in a row is much smaller, yes, but again - the distributions are independent events. The probability of rolling a 20-sided dice and getting a 20 two times in a row is 1 in 400. But if you roll and get a 20 the first time, and pause before rolling the second time? The probability that you'll get a 20 again is still 1 in 20. The dice hasn't magically changed weight because it rolled a 20 last time. 

Yes, you did.  

Disagreed entirely.  For the same reason that if Tess had seen your post earlier than I had, she would've disagreed with it for exactly the same reasons I did. Tess is significantly too good for that comment to be alignment indicative, in my opinion. 

And my vote is staying on you, because while I don't think the original comment was especially indicative, I haven't liked your responses since. Sorry.  

EDIT: @Arraenae RP?  

Edited October 18, 2019 by Elbereth

[Arrae]

@StrikerEZ, you voted on me first, so you should've removed it first

[little wilson she/her]

A conspiracy. Of all the accursed luck, it had to be a conspiracy she'd fallen into. Didn't these people know that conspiracies were so five years ago? Ugh.

Zhier scanned the crowd in the teahouse, hoping that either her informant or, if she was truly lucky, the creator himself was here. Or herself. Impossible to know either way. And even if the creator were here, how was she supposed to recognize hi-

Wait. Her eyes traced their path backwards. Yes, there, along the wall, a vaguely familiar dark figure. She almost laughed. If they were looking for Discovery agents in their midst, Asterion was surely the most obvious choice, and yet no one seemed to even notice him.

Not that she cared, she reminded herself, even though another part of her mind wondered who he worked with. But no. No, it didn't matter. She wasn't here about any conspiracy. She was only here for the creator.

Unless she was called here because helping the conspiracy would fulfill her vendetta. What if....what if the emperor was the creator?

But conspiracies, she sighed. I'm getting too old for this.

[Young Bard he/him]

I read Striker's statement as more of a guessing game about what Kas and Hael would do than a statement about mathematical probability - as a probabilistic statement, it's definitely incorrect - as a statement about what Kas/Hael (Kale?  ) might do, it may or may not be correct, but as Rae pointed out, it's more interesting and fair to base lynches on reads rather than metagaming even if it were possible to read Kale's mind, which I severely doubt.

That said, I'm not especially suspicious of Striker for it, and it seems more like a villager grasping at straws to me.

16 hours ago, STINK said:

As someone who was not involved in this supposed last cycle you are all hallucinating, I also don't really have anything of merit to add just wanted to say something you know how it is

Hmmm... Stink, you have a distinctive style, which sometimes slips into a kind of self-parody, or trying to mimic your own style, if that makes sense - I think this is one of those incidences, and I'm trying to work out whether that's alignment indicative or not. But it's the best I've got right now.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Young Bard

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

Ellira stared at Joon, wide-eyed. “Didn’t you see what they just did to that poor woman? If we go outside, we’ll be killed.” Someone’s out of his depth, apparently. Just my luck. 

She began sniffling. “Why would they want to kill us? I haven’t done anything wrong!” Maybe her crying trigger his protective instincts enough to snap out of his shock. 

Bold of you, to assume that Joon has protective instincts. Bolder of you still to assume I can RP them

---

"I don't think they want to kill you," Joon said. He moved closer to hug Ellira, then reconsidered his pants and stepped back. "I think we walked into the wrong place at the wrong time. We should be safe if we hide from the crossfire."

Joon looked around and grimaced. The entire teahouse was bristling with tension, and some of the patrons had even started accusing each other.

There was only one option. Normally, Joon would never be so crass, but desperate times made for desperate measures.

"Milady, would you like to accompany me to the bathroom? I'm sure we can find a way to pass the time while we wait."

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

The probability of it happening twice in a row is much smaller, yes, but again - the distributions are independent events. The probability of rolling a 20-sided dice and getting a 20 two times in a row is 1 in 400. But if you roll and get a 20 the first time, and pause before rolling the second time? The probability that you'll get a 20 again is still 1 in 20. The dice hasn't magically changed weight because it rolled a 20 last time. 

Yes, you did.  

I mean, I never said the probability changed, just that the probability of it happening twice in a row is lower than it just happening the first time. Anyway, we’ve discussed this long enough.

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

Disagreed entirely.  For the same reason that if Tess had seen your post earlier than I had, she would've disagreed with it for exactly the same reasons I did. Tess is significantly too good for that comment to be alignment indicative, in my opinion.

I mean, that’s a fair. Probably true. Just something about the way she phrased it sounded genuine to me? I dunno, maybe I’m grasping at straws (is he in this game?). 

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

And my vote is staying on you, because while I don't think the original comment was especially indicative, I haven't liked your responses since. Sorry.  

I mean, that’s fair. To be fair, I just voted on you to see how you’d respond, and I’m pretty sure you’re coming at me from a villager perspective and not an elim perspective, so Elbereth. 

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

@StrikerEZ, you voted on me first, so you should've removed it first

That’s a pretty valid reason, honestly.

Also, before I had to leave for my therapist appointment, I was gonna point out how no one had come to defend me yet, which was worrying considering that if an elim is up for lynch, at least one person will defend them...and then Bard came and defended me.  Now I can’t claim I’m not an elim because no one’s been defending me. Thanks @Young Bard for the believing that my statistics analysis was wrong and for not being that suspicious of me.

I am curious about your vote on STINK though. Can you elaborate more on why his post feels like a self-parody?

[Rathmaskal he/him]

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

Anyway, I'm a bit at a loss of what to say now. Everything I wanted to say I already said last cycle, and everything there was to say about what I had said has also already been said, I think.

What about the things to say about the things that were said about the things you said?

4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I’d just want to say that the odds of Tess and Itiah being elims again are probably pretty slim. I’m not gonna completely write them off yet, but I won’t be focusing on them much, besides for how other players react to them.

But you can't make that assumption?!  #DeadHorse #Beating #IKnow37OtherPeopleAlreadyPointedThisOutButIFeltLeftOut

Vote Count:

Rae () - Striker
Striker (2) - Rae, Elbereth
Wilson () - Elbereth
Elbereth () - Striker
Alvron (1) - Wilson
Stink (1) - Bard

[StrikerEZ he/him]

31 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

But you can't make that assumption?!  #DeadHorse #Beating #IKnow37OtherPeopleAlreadyPointedThisOutButIFeltLeftOut

bUt YoU cAn’T mAkE tHaT aSsUmpTioN?!?!

Alv @Alvron Wanna let RNGesus choose who lives? If you vote on STINK, he can join the fun too. 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I read Striker's statement as more of a guessing game about what Kas and Hael would do than a statement about mathematical probability - as a probabilistic statement, it's definitely incorrect - as a statement about what Kas/Hael (Kale?  ) might do, it may or may not be correct, but as Rae pointed out, it's more interesting and fair to base lynches on reads rather than metagaming even if it were possible to read Kale's mind, which I severely doubt.

Ahem. You mean Kale'elin, Herald of the Healthy Superfood Lifestyle, with a side dish of great justice! Remember to eat enough fibre, kids! I return you to your regular scheduled backstabbing and murderparty now 

Also, on a more serious note: please remember to go back and retract your votes guys! I'm free enough avoiding reports to be able to count and to see what you mean, but please do help to make it easier on me, as I already messed up one of the trackers just now  

Edit: Arbiters cannot change non-existing votes. They can only change existing votes, either by re-directing them or converting them to a no-vote.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Kasimir

[+Ed Venture]

It was still a good idea to show up early to a meeting. It was wise to be early, especially when the meeting could be about a conspiracy. People could die. It could be a trap. One never knows. Being early...you had a jump on everyone else. People who showed up late...one had to be sharp to survive. Darela wasn't smart. Too forgiving. Too open. She was gone.

Lawrence shifted his mask up uncover his mouth to take a sip of tea. Smiling, he watched life pass outside the teahouse. People strolled the streets unaware that soon, their world would be falling apart. And the masked man in the innocent teahouse would be a part of it.

As more people entered, the tension grew. He watched himself stand up and greet his fellow Conspirators. He watched himself stand up to grab a steamed bun. All the while he thought, taking in the information. And a dead body hiding in the storeroom. Crossbow bolts. That escalated quickly Lawrence thought. So he began screaming, a shocked look covering his face for all to see. A corpse, how delightful. Lawrence smiled inwardly, it was time for a show.

~ ~ ~

That was fun. Too bad I didn’t write more RP the first time.

I know that I’m late to the meta game party but it doesn’t change anything. It’s just going to confirmed by a lynch or two. Right now it’s just slowing down discussion.

So Rath for dead horse beating. It’s no longer helpful. And what did the horse do to you? 

Edited October 19, 2019 by Butt Ad Venture

[Elandera she/her]

Five hours before the clandestine meeting at Frozen Moon:

Clang, clang, ping. Clang, clang, ping.

Marzia fell into a steady rhythm as she hammered the glowing metal plate against the anvil. The sound resonated deep within her, creating a salve for her soul. More than ever before, she needed to feel grounded - safe. The world was an unsteady place.

Clang, clang, ping.

Darela dead. A strange note. Unfinished blueprints.

Clang, clang, ping.

The plating she was working against the anvil was just a piece revealed by the schematics. It was incredible. Intricate. Beautiful. It would solidify her place as the finest armorer in the Rose Empire. 

Marzia shoved the metal back into the pile of red coals, then slowly worked the bellows. The coals grew brighter as a wave of heat washed over her.

It would be useless without the rest of the blueprints. She would go to that meeting. Nothing would stop her from finishing that armor.

---

Writing that RP took longer than expected, and now I'm running short on time. I'll try to place a vote later tonight, once I get the chance to more thoroughly read what's happened so far.

Thoughts from my skimmed read: I find Striker vaguely suspicious, but I think I tend to find him suspicious no matter his alignment (I think I've tried to lynch him early in every game I've played with him ). The other people with votes currently don't seem to have warranted them, at least that I've found. They seem to be more stabs in the dark, which for D1, isn't terrible but it's also not ideal. I want to keep an eye on El, though I can't articulate why at the moment. Something seems off.

[Alvron he/him]

The teacup rattled against the saucer as he placed it back on the table.  His head was pounding, the pain pulsing behind his right eye like a blacksmith pounding steel on an anvil.

He reached down to grasp the handle of the teacup before snatching it back.  A half forgotten memory surfacing through the pain.

The taste of mint on his tongue.  The spilled contents of a cup.  A smile from someone that could've been an ally.

Asterion shakily pushed the tea as far away as he could.  He looked towards the exit only to see another bolt it closed.  Panic rising his eyes darted around the room looking for more exits.  Instead of an exit he found himself locking eyes with a ghost.  Memories rising unbidden to his minds eye.

A womans face covered in syrup and blood as glitter and hair slowly drifted down upon her.  Flames licking the body as an inhuman screech tore through the air from the mechanical monstrosity that flew in the sky belching smoke.  Twin laughter drifting on the wind.

His mind reeling as it tried to separate past from present, dream from reality.

She's not here.  She's not real.

His breathing becoming more and more rapid, Asterion stood, took a couple of steps towards the ghost that haunted him.  He reached forth a hand only to let it fall limp once again, his courage fleeing him as quickly as it came.

He had to get out.  Another door.  A window.  Anything!  He needed to get out!

[Elbereth she/her]

5 hours ago, Arraenae said:

"I don't think they want to kill you," Joon said. He moved closer to hug Ellira, then reconsidered his pants and stepped back. "I think we walked into the wrong place at the wrong time. We should be safe if we hide from the crossfire."

Joon looked around and grimaced. The entire teahouse was bristling with tension, and some of the patrons had even started accusing each other.

There was only one option. Normally, Joon would never be so crass, but desperate times made for desperate measures.

"Milady, would you like to accompany me to the bathroom? I'm sure we can find a way to pass the time while we wait."

Ellira tilted her head, considering. She did want to keep an eye on the room - her orders were to observe and take note, not hide away in a bathroom with someone who’d just wet his pants. But the situation was growing more dangerous than anticipated. 

“We would have to- the bathroom is past- I don’t want to walk anywhere near that... body.” They could probably get there without walking past the body, but he wouldn’t know that, seeing as he’d seemingly never visited the Frozen Moon before. “Maybe... maybe just moving away further from the window would be good.” She’d picked a spot that had a good view of the room, but it was a bit too close to crossbow range for her liking. 

She picked up her hairpin that he’d given back to her, and proffered an unsteady hand to him. 

---

 

EDIT: Forgot to add the non RP stuff. @Elandera, do let me know if you figure out what seems off.  

Also, Alv, I love Asterion so much. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Elbereth

[Alvron he/him]

4 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Also, Alv, I love Asterion so much. 

He could do with a hug.  He's having a rough day.

[Elbereth she/her]

I would offer, but Ellira is unfortunately occupied - and even if she weren’t would not be offering the hug out of kindness. I think Asterion might be better off without her trying to use him.  

(Someone who hasn’t RPed yet, go hug Asterion) 

[little wilson she/her]

13 minutes ago, Alvron said:

He could do with a hug.  He's having a rough day.

Considering why he just ran off, I don't think he needs a hug from Zhier either. Or maybe he does.... That could be fun. >:)

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

The other people with votes currently don't seem to have warranted them, at least that I've found.

Pfft. Excuse me? My vote is perfectly warranted. What better reason than a former agent of exactly what we're looking for?

[STINK he/him]

5 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmm... Stink, you have a distinctive style, which sometimes slips into a kind of self-parody, or trying to mimic your own style, if that makes sense - I think this is one of those incidences, and I'm trying to work out whether that's alignment indicative or not. But it's the best I've got right now.

I hate to reinforce this whole 'distinctive-style' thing you got going on here with all this RP, but this is paranoia that I'm being myself in a way that isn't myself?