Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Hmm. Actually, I'm guessing there were no duplicate roles assigned to the elim team. We know they have each of the following:

Smuggler (Shard of Reading)

* Impersonator (Zillah or Silb)

* Extortionist (Unknown)

* Escort (Unknown)

Renowned (Straw)

Gossip (Fura)

Stalker (Pyro)

I'm guessing that the only role they didn't get was Bartender, because giving them another kill would be unbalanced. 

That means they presumptively still have a Bodyguard and a Gambling Tycoon. That means, much as it pains me, Sart appears to be clear (assuming Kynedath was telling the truth about the scan result).

Kynedath's intervention into the Sart lynch still strikes me as suspect, though, and I think some of @DeTess' analysis earlier backs that up. It could be that they expected Sart would be killed, and wanted credit for defending a villager. I also haven't entirely ruled out a Kynedath / Sart elim team where Sart isn't actually a smuggler, and Kynedath lied to cover them. Whatever the case, that's where my vote will be for now. 

(Sorry for the double post, but it felt substantive enough to warrant it) 

Your vote on Kyne doesn't make any sense. Isn't Kyne a Renowned...?

[Coffeecat she/her]

I agree, kyne is too valuable for finding elims.

the risk that they are village is too high.

 

[Bugsy he/him]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

Your vote on Kyne doesn't make any sense. Isn't Kyne a Renowned...?

...oops. In my defense, all my notes are on a computer I don’t currently have access to  

Kynedath, BR

[DeTess she/her]

I don't think there's more than 8 elims, as though they can instantly win once they have a 3/5th's majority, once they reach parity they already get control of the lynch, which means the villages is done, just as in any other game. The 'grace period' between parity and 3/5th's majority isn't there fore the village, it's there for bleeder.

Now, on to some role analysis. We know that the elims have an active extortionist and an active escort. This could potentially be the same person, but I don't think so, especially since an elim escorting (blocking sart from proving their role) happened the same cycle bugsy got redirected. These people needed to have been active starting C4 all the way to now, and likely were people the elims trusted to remain active because a single cycle slipped by one of them would unleash a rather ticked off Bleeder.

Currently,t he group of suspects is as follows (taken from my similar post last cycle, correcting for those cleared by the shard lynch):

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

Coda ( Coda )

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )

Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )

Archivald ( The_Archivist )

Lady Lumen ( Mist )

Emi ( Emi )

TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )

Hammond ( Megasif )

Now, off these BR, The_archivist and Zillah don't meet the activity requirement. Kynedath has claimed renowned and I don't think he's lying. Still, an update on scan results would be welcome, @Kynedath.

Coda has claimed gossip, but there's no reason to assume they can't have a second role, and they have been active enough tthat they could have submitted actions. Emi has not been active in the thread, but she's been on the Shard enough that she could have submitted actions. @Emi (and @Coda too), this puts you in a position where the village is going to have to seriously consider lynching you. there's no way to clear you of anything, and you're active enough that you're not a potential afk elim that we could ignore. I'd appreciate it if you could step up your activity here a bit.

Lord silberfarben is in the same boat as Emi and Coda too. Xino likewise has enough activity, but I think they're less likely to be an elim at this point because of their interactions with reading. Mist is also active enough to be submitting actions for the elims. Megasif subbed in, but he subbed in right on time for the beginning of this trick the elims pulled. However, since Pyro claimed their extorionist targeted me C1, Megasif can't be the elim!extorionist.

So that leaves me with six possible eilm!escorts and five possible elim!extorionists

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

Coda ( Coda )

Lady Lumen ( Mist )

Emi ( Emi )

Hammond ( Megasif ) (can not be elim!extorionist)

Off these, I'm leaning village on Xino and mist. I'm also suspecting lord silberfarben of being an elim impersonator, but lynching him to make sure is probably a good idea either way. That leaves three potential targets for two roles. pretty good odds, all things considered  

I'm going to move my vote to Coda for now, as between coda, emi and megasif coda's the only one I have an active suspicion off, rather than simply going through a process of elimination.

Also, since I reckon the village ahs at least one escort (and possibly two), might I suggest escorting bugsy next cycle, to stop the elims from using bleeder against us.

 

[Emi she/her]

I’m not active because I’m not sure what I can say here. Everyone is more experienced, so I’m scared, that I will just confuse you.

[DeTess she/her]

2 hours ago, Emi said:

I’m not active because I’m not sure what I can say here. Everyone is more experienced, so I’m scared, that I will just confuse you.

But the problem with that approach is that you'll never catch up or get better if you do that, and everyone else is left with a player that we can't read, because they don't participate. Everyone started as a beginner once, and the only way to get better is to participate.

I know catching up to the game in its entirety is daunting, but if you can't do that, at least just pick one or two living players and do some analysis on them. That gives the rest of us clues as to how you're viewing the game, and based on the arguments you make for people's alignments we can figure out your own alignment. This isn't even a case of being correct in your analysis, just about showing us how you're looking at the game.

Edited June 7, 2020 by DeTess

[Mat he/him]

DeTess has the magical 666 reputation points! Torturer of Heralds

[Emi she/her]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

DeTess has the magical 666 reputation points! Torturer of Heralds

Nice! And I think, that she isn’t an elim, because she want people to vote and that can possibly lynch her. However, @DeTess votes for for Coda, which can mean that she wants us to not to vote for Bugsy, because both of them are elims and she doesn’t want us to lynch him.

(I hope it had sense and if not then sorry.)

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Emi said:

Nice! And I think, that she isn’t an elim, because she want people to vote and that can possibly lynch her. However, @DeTess votes for for Coda, which can mean that she wants us to not to vote for Bugsy, because both of them are elims and she doesn’t want us to lynch him.

(I hope it had sense and if not then sorry.)

Well, Bugsy claimed Bleeder, and the only reason he would do that is if it were true. I think DeTess voted Coda because she believes there are enough elims to win the game if we lynch Bugsy this cycle, which I personally doubt.

[Emi she/her]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Well, Bugsy claimed Bleeder, and the only reason he would do that is if it were true. I think DeTess voted Coda because she believes there are enough elims to win the game if we lynch Bugsy this cycle, which I personally doubt.

Makes sense

Edited June 7, 2020 by Emi

[DeTess she/her]

58 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Well, Bugsy claimed Bleeder, and the only reason he would do that is if it were true. I think DeTess voted Coda because she believes there are enough elims to win the game if we lynch Bugsy this cycle, which I personally doubt.

Actually, if at all possible I want to try and set up a tie situation (Ideally with the elim slightly ahead to force the elims to rely on vote manip to get the lynch on Bleeder as well) so we can get the best of both worlds.

[Bugsy he/him]

6 hours ago, DeTess said:

I'm going to move my vote to Coda for now, as between coda, emi and megasif coda's the only one I have an active suspicion off, rather than simply going through a process of elimination.

None of the elims have had 2 roles so far - I think Joe is treating “constable” as being a role. That means that if Coda’s honest about being a gossip, I don’t believe he has any chance of being an elim, and I don’t see any reason for him to lie.

I think we’d instead be best served by voting for either Silb or Emi, who both strike me as potential elims and who don’t have an existing role claim as an alibi

[Bugsy he/him]

Ok. Substantive double post again.

To start, here’s the current vote count, best I can figure:

Silb (1) : Bugsy

Bugsy (4) : Silb, Sart, Matrim, Emi

BR (1) : Experience

Coda (1) : DeTess

@Emi, now that you know I’m not an eliminator, would you consider moving your vote? I am Bleeder, but I’m no threat to the village, because I’m being roleblocked or redirected every cycle. It’s much more important that we lynch eliminators right now.

@Matrim, could you explain why you’re voting on me instead of hunting for an elim? Also, you haven’t claimed your role before - would you mind doing so now?

@Sart, I’m guessing I won’t persuade you to try and lynch someone else, but can you try and lynch someone else too? In order to tie the lynch between me and an elim, the elim needs 3 more votes than me. That way their impersonator can’t swing the lynch. You moving your vote to Silb or BR would go a long way towards accomplishing that.

@Experience @DeTess, I really think Silb is the best vote right now, but we need to agree on a candidate we can all vote for. I don’t think Coda is likely to be an elim, so I’d ask that we either go with BR or Silb, though I’d be open to other ideas.

[Emi she/her]

Ok, so I can vote for DeTess, (Bugsy) because after careful consideration, yeah, she seems quite good alternative elim

[Mat he/him]

33 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Actually, if at all possible I want to try and set up a tie situation (Ideally with the elim slightly ahead to force the elims to rely on vote manip to get the lynch on Bleeder as well) so we can get the best of both worlds.

Yes, this would be good.

5 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

@Matrim, could you explain why you’re voting on me instead of hunting for an elim? Also, you haven’t claimed your role before - would you mind doing so now?

So, initially I was voting you because with the possibility of half the elim team already being gone they didn't seem like such a big threat as Bleeder who just role-claimed. Now with your reasoning and DeTess's logic I'm not sure. 

As for the roleclaim, I am an impersonator, the one who moved Coda's vote from Straw to Pyro C2. I have done nothing else as I have been escorted thrice I believe, and nothing else really felt substantial enough to do that and as this role isn't really that big of a deal I didn't claim before. (Though when TJ was theorizing I came close)

Bugsy, BR in the interest of a tie, subject to change back before the day ends.

4 minutes ago, Emi said:

Ok, so I can vote for DeTess, (Bugsy) because after careful consideration, yeah, she seems quite good alternative elim

Also, I believe you are the first person to think this. For good reason. Why exactly...?

[DeTess she/her]

15 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

 

@Experience @DeTess, I really think Silb is the best vote right now, but we need to agree on a candidate we can all vote for. I don’t think Coda is likely to be an elim, so I’d ask that we either go with BR or Silb, though I’d be open to other ideas.

I'm fine with a Silberfarben lynch as well. Either Silberfarben or Coda is fine with me, and if Silberfarben is more likely to happen this cycle then that's the lynch I'll settle for, especially because, even in the unlikely event of Silberfarben being village, we still get an elim (Zillah, in this case) out of the deal because of TJ's role analysis.

[Emi she/her]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Also, I believe you are the first person to think this. For good reason. Why exactly...?

Because DeTess never voted for elims, as I took a fast look on earlier posts.

[Megasif he/him]

Hi. interesting development

That's why we always lynch an outed elim. 

That's why we should always take the bleeder down to 1 life rather than having them 2 lives even later in the game. 

Detess!elim is possible especially with their quick turnaround on lynching the bleeder and trying to go for an 'elim'.

Best way to go from here (in my opinion)

We lynch bugsy once, let night actions resolve, and see where we are tomorrow. 

Reason:

Busgy is over-exagerating our bad position. Quite a few elims are down. Best thing for bugsy is delay and try to hunt elim, because with a decent case on him by one the elims as a bleeder and he could be a runaway wagon. Plus he gets more time to get winstig.

Honestly if I were bleeder and I didn't want to be a tool for the elims, I wouldn't submit an action to be redirected. Bugsy has made this attempt and fair enough. Time to level the ground and at least bring bugsy in danger. Everyone is playing to their win-con. Pyro and bugsy were and are both furthering their wincon. And it is definitely more fun 

Bugsy

Also I'm up for trying out Detess tomorrow. (Although not 100% on this, I think it's a good plan of action. If he's elim, he needs pressure and if he's not, he may live longer )

Edited June 7, 2020 by Megasif

[Experience he/him]

55 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

@Experience @DeTess, I really think Silb is the best vote right now, but we need to agree on a candidate we can all vote for. I don’t think Coda is likely to be an elim, so I’d ask that we either go with BR or Silb, though I’d be open to other ideas.

I guess I'm also up for a Silber lynch, though if they are a villager, we're going to be in trouble. (BR)

[Megasif he/him]

I know Detess wants a tie but it's an unnecessary risk for village in the case we are tying a a village for the lynch.

[Mist she/her]

BrightnessRadiant suggested that there would be one more elim than expected. Votes Straw, said last cycle would like to go after Pyro. Orlok thought she could be evil. She defended Pyro for saying he would be less active the first few cycles. Others gave warning and did not receive suspicion. She tried to avoid a tie C1 lynch because the elims could tilt it in their favor. Appears to be having trouble keeping up with high volume of posts. She last visited 17th Shard on Tuesday. Suspicious.

Bugsy claimed Bleeder/Gambling Tycoon. He suggested that there would be no duplicate roles on the elim team. He wouldn’t be surprised by 9 elims. He states that if we lynch him, we should go the whole hog and do it twice. He says the elims will be controlling my actions. Once he is dead, he believes the elims will kill Winsting, a powerful village player. It would be difficult for the village to win while lynching Bugsy because of numbers. However, Bugsy already has some knowledge of who Winsting is not, mainly from Pyro. If we wait to lynch him, we risk him finding Winsting and ending the game. 

Quote

Bugsy: I believe so long as Bleeder is alive we’re perpetually a cycle from losing.

From here: https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/90037-mid-range-game-42-the-auction-of-lord-winsting/?page=45#comment-996879

Kynedath cleared Sart by scanning him. He is a Renowned. As a Renowned, he is valuable for finding elims. He stated that we do need to keep the elims in check. He hasn’t posted yet this cycle. Trust

I agree that we need to find an active elim.

I think we need to create a tied lynch, with the suspected elim ahead by a vote or two, in case the elims have vote manipulation. BrightnessRadiant. I would be willing to change to Bugsy. 

I disagree that we need to lynch Bugsy twice if we lynch him. Lynching him once now will remove one of his lives, allowing for faster removal if we realize we are unable to keep him from attacking.

With everyone united against Bleeder, we had several mislynches. I assume the elims learned much more information than the village. 

[Bugsy he/him]

9 minutes ago, Megasif said:

I know Detess wants a tie but it's an unnecessary risk for village in the case we are tying a a village for the lynch.

There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping.

Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it.

6 minutes ago, Mist said:

However, Bugsy already has some knowledge of who Winsting is not, mainly from Pyro. If we wait to lynch him, we risk him finding Winsting and ending the game. 

Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game. 

8 minutes ago, Mist said:

I agree that we need to find an active elim.

I think we need to create a tied lynch, with the suspected elim ahead by a vote or two, in case the elims have vote manipulation. BrightnessRadiant.

BR isn’t active  It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train

20 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Honestly if I were bleeder and I didn't want to be a tool for the elims, I wouldn't submit an action to be redirected.

Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself.

@Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, Emi said:

Because DeTess never voted for elims, as I took a fast look on earlier posts.

I voted on shard of reading, initiated the lynch on Pyro, revealed Furami's targeting of Araris after Devotary PM'd me about their scan and voted on Straw... which I think covers all dead elims so far?

Also, I got attacked by the elims, at a time where i really don't think it'd make sense for them to want to WGG* me?

And I've made it clear several times now that I want a tie between bugsy and an elim, not for bugsy to be left alone. I suggest those looking for elims focus on those dog-piling bugsy right now, not those trying to take out the elim team.

* a WGG is when an elim attacks one of their own while arranging for protection to make that person look village.

Edited June 7, 2020 by DeTess

[Megasif he/him]

5 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping.

Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it.

Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game. 

BR isn’t active  It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train

Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself.

@Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?

Role is secret 

Suspicious in the sense the sense that I'm a 'villager calling out for one bleeder lynch' or an 'elim calling for a bleeder lynch' as I don't seem to be the bleeder 

[DeTess she/her]

36 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Detess!elim is possible especially with their quick turnaround on lynching the bleeder and trying to go for an 'elim'.

Can you explain this statement? First, 'elim' suggests you have reason to believe the people I accused are innocent. If so, I'm certain we'd all like to hear why.

Second of all, can you explain in what world someone trying to find the elims is suspected of being one, while someone trying to lynch someone that explicitly isn't an elim should be trusted?

Edited June 7, 2020 by DeTess