Why roshar should attack Scadrial soon and therefore they probably will

[Bigmikey357 he/him]

You know,  maybe Scadrial is actually doing the infiltration invasion plan already.  Axindewth (sp?) did give the voidspren to Venli after all. If the goal is to keep Roshar from gaining too much power on a Cosmere scale then kicking off a new Desolation has almost no downside. There are two concerns when pursuing such a strategy,  one an inevitable consequence and the other kinda of a worse case scenario. The consequence,  Rosharan forces gain valuable, practical experience in fighting supernatural foes.  Since they already have experience with mundane foes giving them any more experience is problematic.  The worse case scenario is if the conflict ends too quickly,  even worse if the humans and Singers unite. Think of the weapon of mass magical destruction represented by anti-light. That discovery came about through collaboration.  If they could collaborate on a permanent basis then the offworld problem gets solved way too quickly for the piece of mind of any Cosmere-aware society that isn’t Roshar. But based on the history of conflict on Roshar this would seem like a very outside possibility from an outsider's perspective.  But if Scadrial did indeed put the plan into motion then Dalinar would be absolutely terrifying to them.

[Valigus]

On 2/2/2021 at 0:26 PM, Bigmikey357 said:

If Roshar aimed to become the rulers of the entire Cosmere then taking out Scadrial right now as a preemptive strike would be a great idea. But of course none of this matters if they can't get there. And let's be clear,  Scadrial isn't going to be as vulnerable as they are right now for long. But I don't believe most of the advantages Roshar possesses in terms of strength of magic and military experience would be relevant for this invasion.  The main reason to throw a large army at a place is to provide an occupation force once you smash it. But if you're Roshar why would you want to? They have nothing you want or need. Their tech is easily transported,  any natural resources they have can be made, the concept of mass production can be stolen. Their people are short, kinda strong from living in higher gravity, but generally unhealthy and, from a Rosharan perspective,  plague-ridden. So the mission isn't going to be conquer and occupy, it instead should be destabilize and sabotage. Send in Lightweaving troops and do your damndest to keep the locals ignorant of your mission until it's too late. They don't have local Shard support either; Harmony is dealing with something. 

Honestly though,  I  think Scadrial should be the one doing the invading, and I think they could execute the Rosharan plan I outlined above much better. Keep those powerful warmongering rubes occupied with their own planet,  blockade them. Of course the god of Hatred might object. 

Exactly and if they just go with the light weaver plan and what can Scadrial do Lightweavers are significantly more versatile kandra, sure they aren’t as good at infiltration but they are way better assassins, can take anyone currently on Scadrial who isn’t kelsier in a 1v1 and do on.

[Valigus]

On 2/3/2021 at 6:11 PM, Bigmikey357 said:

You know,  maybe Scadrial is actually doing the infiltration invasion plan already.  Axindewth (sp?) did give the voidspren to Venli after all. If the goal is to keep Roshar from gaining too much power on a Cosmere scale then kicking off a new Desolation has almost no downside. There are two concerns when pursuing such a strategy,  one an inevitable consequence and the other kinda of a worse case scenario. The consequence,  Rosharan forces gain valuable, practical experience in fighting supernatural foes.  Since they already have experience with mundane foes giving them any more experience is problematic.  The worse case scenario is if the conflict ends too quickly,  even worse if the humans and Singers unite. Think of the weapon of mass magical destruction represented by anti-light. That discovery came about through collaboration.  If they could collaborate on a permanent basis then the offworld problem gets solved way too quickly for the piece of mind of any Cosmere-aware society that isn’t Roshar. But based on the history of conflict on Roshar this would seem like a very outside possibility from an outsider's perspective.  But if Scadrial did indeed put the plan into motion then Dalinar would be absolutely terrifying to them.

Yeah if they are pulling this plan off it’s backfiring they are taking the as far as we have seen most experience best troops in the cosmere and given them training to fight not just the supernatural but supernatural beings far more dangerous then anything on Scadrial short of a fullborn.

mid humans and singers unit they are basically unstoppable singers are in my opinion on the same level as most koloss in terms of lethality because while they are smaller they are still strong heavily armored which kolosss aren’t and far more disciplined and able to use complex tactics, humans on the other hand have been consistently shown to be highly flexible a great rosharan army coudl be comprised of singer frontline and more flexible human skirmishers.

the biggest thing I think is roshar has bondmsitsh which are borderline shard levels of power and also the best fighters we have seen ever on the cosmere the fused have fought for 700 years straight, Sahel has personally trained many of them, kaladin and szeth could probably take a fullborn in the right circumstances. Their roster is just insane.

[Forms of mind]

so is it generaly accepted that the world hoppers from interlude 1 book 1 are responsible for purelake disease that liren talks about at the very begining of ROW. 

[Bejarden he/him]

36 minutes ago, Forms of mind said:

so is it generaly accepted that the world hoppers from interlude 1 book 1 are responsible for purelake disease that liren talks about at the very begining of ROW. 

I thought that was a Covid cameo.

A plague from the west=China 

Coughing was the symptoms and hand washing recommended = Covid

Called a New plague = Novel carona virus 

 

[Green chicken]

36 minutes ago, Bejardin1250 said:

I thought that was a Covid cameo.

A plague from the west=China 

Coughing was the symptoms and hand washing recommended = Covid

Called a New plague = Novel carona virus 

 

The plague was mention at the end of wor. 

[Forms of mind]

36 minutes ago, Bejardin1250 said:

I thought that was a Covid cameo.

A plague from the west=China 

Coughing was the symptoms and hand washing recommended = Covid

Called a New plague = Novel carona virus 

 

This is funny.

[Bejarden he/him]

1 minute ago, Green chicken said:

The plague was mention at the end of wor. 

Really interesting . I did not know that.

Can you get me that quote

[Forms of mind]

2 minutes ago, Green chicken said:

The plague was mention at the end of wor. 

I thought liren makes a quick reference to the plauge when talking about refuges in chapter 1 or 2. i could be wrong.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Forms of mind

[Bejarden he/him]

Yes he does

Green chicken is saying it was mentioned even in WoR

Edited April 23, 2021 by Bejardin1250

[Halyo_Alex he/him]

Brandon predicted Covid

[Green chicken]

24 minutes ago, Bejardin1250 said:

Yes he does

Green chicken is saying it was mentioned even in WoR

The specific quote from wor in chapter 89 is:

"Beyond that, there were sudden and unexpected reports, coming via spanreed, of Kholinar rioting. No straight answers there yet, either. And what was this he heard of a plague in the Purelake? Storms what a mess this all had become."

Edited April 23, 2021 by Green chicken
spelling

[LewsTherinTelescope]

4 hours ago, Forms of mind said:

so is it generaly accepted that the world hoppers from interlude 1 book 1 are responsible for purelake disease that liren talks about at the very begining of ROW. 

Yeah. It's sort of amusing it was the worldhopper org specifically focused on non-intervention that brought a disease there... lol.

Though, note that "plague" is something of a misnomer:

Quote

stormfather (paraphrased)

Does the plague on the Purelake has anything to do with the fact that the magic fish form symbiotic bonds with spren?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

No, worldhoppers brought a disease to Roshar that they didn't have before. It's the common cold. Rosharans' Investiture makes it so they're usually a healthy bunch so something like the cold is kind of frightening. "It's a plague of the sniffles."

stormfather [Alternate wording from ZenBossanova's report] (paraphrased)

Another person asked about the plague in the Purelake.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Turns out, that was a pathogen introduced by worldhoppers. People on Roshar normally have greater health than elsewhere in the cosmere because they are more Invested (Stormlight and all that). This plague was what we call… the common cold.

Firefight Phoenix signing (Jan. 21, 2015)

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

On 4/23/2021 at 10:40 PM, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Yeah. It's sort of amusing it was the worldhopper org specifically focused on non-intervention that brought a disease there... lol.

Though, note that "plague" is something of a misnomer:

Please note that the Common Cold can be lethal if:

A: you are immune compromised.

B: You have preexisting respiratory issues

C: It is an entirely novel variant to which your immune system is unfamiliar.

Also, the Common Cold is often a Corona virus... so yes, Roshar had Covid before Covid was a thing. And more people should be dying from it, considering viruses don’t seem to exist on Roshar and the virus should have mutated repeatedly by now... as Cold viruses are known to do.

[Frustration he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Please note that the Common Cold can be lethal if:

A: you are immune compromised.

B: You have preexisting respiratory issues

C: It is an entirely novel variant to which your immune system is unfamiliar.

Also, the Common Cold is often a Corona virus... so yes, Roshar had Covid before Covid was a thing. And more people should be dying from it, considering viruses don’t seem to exist on Roshar and the virus should have mutated repeatedly by now... as Cold viruses are known to do.

Roshar also has more investiture, which some WoB's indicat might improve thier immune system

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

1 minute ago, Frustration said:

Roshar also has more investiture, which some WoB's indicat might improve thier immune system

This is true. It is worth noting that the Common Cold really isn’t harmless though...

[LewsTherinTelescope]

3 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Please note that the Common Cold can be lethal if:

A: you are immune compromised.

B: You have preexisting respiratory issues

C: It is an entirely novel variant to which your immune system is unfamiliar.

Also, the Common Cold is often a Corona virus... so yes, Roshar had Covid before Covid was a thing. And more people should be dying from it, considering viruses don’t seem to exist on Roshar and the virus should have mutated repeatedly by now... as Cold viruses are known to do.

Yeah, but the way the WoB puts it, it sounds like it's not particularly major for them (it's paraphrased, but both phrasings talk about Rosharans having stronger immune systems, and "its a plague of the sniffles” is in quotes). So while it can be a big deal, it sounds like it is not necessarily so for most Rosharans. RoW even mentions it was kind of overhyped (chapter 23):

Quote

He settled into a rhythm, seeing patients, occasionally sticking his head into the next exam room to ask his father for advice on a diagnosis or remedy. He dealt with an unusual number of coughs. Apparently there was something moving through the tower—a sickness that left people with mucus in their lungs and an overall feeling of aches. He’d never encountered anything like it. His father had been tracking it though, and said that Kharbranthian surgeons reported it wasn’t deadly. A plague from the West that, when all was said and done, didn’t live up to its reputation. The sickness barely attracted any plaguespren—though there didn’t seem to be many around the tower to attract, so that would be part of it.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

23 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Yeah, but the way the WoB puts it, it sounds like it's not particularly major for them (it's paraphrased, but both phrasings talk about Rosharans having stronger immune systems, and "its a plague of the sniffles” is in quotes). So while it can be a big deal, it sounds like it is not necessarily so for most Rosharans. RoW even mentions it was kind of overhyped (chapter 23):

My impression was more along the lines of: “I don’t think Brandon realizes that the Common Cold is dangerous and people die from it.” Though we can explain no one in the tower dying of the Common Cold on the basis of: good immune systems, being in overall good health (most of the population are soldiers), and the relative youth of the population at least some (the very young and very old) should be getting more severely sick.

People should still be dying though, even if not many do. About 20 per 100000 (CDC) die from cold related issues. Since Rosharans don’t have preexisting protections to viruses, I’d double it to 40 per million. Considering the tower’s population there should be a notable number of severe reactions and a handful of deaths. So the fact that no one has really gotten ill is very weird to me, because that doesn’t track with the common cold.

Also: Babies should be dying. Straight up. Infants don’t have fully functional immune systems, Stormlight or no Stormlight. Specifically, they struggle to fight off viruses. They get immunity from their mother’s, at least at the start. If mom never had the Common Cold than baby has no immunity to it. And infants are more at risk for developing complications and have weaker respiratory systems.

So the Purelake Plague should be killing infants under a month. The fact that it isn’t seems more of a research failure than anything that has been explained in-world.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

44 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

My impression was more along the lines of: “I don’t think Brandon realizes that the Common Cold is dangerous and people die from it.”

Ah, okay. That makes more sense. Yeah that is kinda odd.

[danex he/him]

48 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

My impression was more along the lines of: “I don’t think Brandon realizes that the Common Cold is dangerous and people die from it.”

I disagree, Brandon does know that and he accounted for it. Very clearly too imo, in that same WoB. 

Quote

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Turns out, that was a pathogen introduced by worldhoppers. People on Roshar normally have greater health than elsewhere in the cosmere because they are more Invested (Stormlight and all that). This plague was what we call… the common cold.

He specifically says that Rosharans have greater health than elsewhere in the Cosmere, implying that if this situation was reversed, and the Common Cold was introduced on say, Scadrial, that the results would be what you say they should be. 

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

4 hours ago, Dannex said:

I disagree, Brandon does know that and he accounted for it. Very clearly too imo, in that same WoB. 

He specifically says that Rosharans have greater health than elsewhere in the Cosmere, implying that if this situation was reversed, and the Common Cold was introduced on say, Scadrial, that the results would be what you say they should be. 

That... still doesn’t explain why babies aren’t dying. Better health doesn’t matter when you don’t have an immune system capable of fighting viruses or an inherited immunity to viruses. It just explains why most of the population isn’t dying; there should still be outliers getting badly sick and most of those should be infants under a month.

[therunner he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

That... still doesn’t explain why babies aren’t dying. Better health doesn’t matter when you don’t have an immune system capable of fighting viruses or an inherited immunity to viruses. It just explains why most of the population isn’t dying; there should still be outliers getting badly sick and most of those should be infants under a month.

Invested healing in general does not require immune system or anything like it. If they are healthier because they are slightly invested due to all the investiture flying around, then that health is one associated with aligning spiritual and physical aspects, not due to immune system. Spiritual ideal is one without illness, so it can be enough to prevent its development or at least hinder it.

[Frustration he/him]

1 hour ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

That... still doesn’t explain why babies aren’t dying. Better health doesn’t matter when you don’t have an immune system capable of fighting viruses or an inherited immunity to viruses. It just explains why most of the population isn’t dying; there should still be outliers getting badly sick and most of those should be infants under a month.

It doesn't say that no one is dying, just that it wasn't anywhere near deadly enough to be considered a Plauge.

And esspecially if you compare even 40 out of a million to a quarter of an entire continent, from the most famous real world example than even that fourty seems laughably low.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

32 minutes ago, Frustration said:

It doesn't say that no one is dying, just that it wasn't anywhere near deadly enough to be considered a Plauge.

And esspecially if you compare even 40 out of a million to a quarter of an entire continent, from the most famous real world example than even that fourty seems laughably low.

If it’s primarily causing infant deaths, then that would explain why it’s called a plague though...

[Frustration he/him]

I just remembered that Rosharans are of Ashynite dissent, so they probably have some residual immune system.