Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Kasimir he/him]

Time-check: You have slightly under eleven and a half hours to rollover. Get those orders in and be sure to hug a buddy today!

Note that I will be having a slightly busier than normal workday, so ask clarifications early, especially if your orders will depend on those.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more.

My original reasoning for looking at Striker was his vote placement on Books D1. He and Ventyl obviously have been proven, so Stick was the next one on the list there. Stick and Pyro(who voted on Striker D1 and I had found that interesting) also ended up being the final votes on Striker this day.  And Experience is the next interesting one to me. Their claim of me pocketing them, maybe rioting and so losing their vote on me(?), and general evasiveness and vagueness has me suspicious.

So if you're reading Stick as somewhat village and Striker and Ventyl are dead, does that make you reconsider which Books votes are more likely to be evil? Knowing if Illwei or Reading are evil could give a better understanding of when an elim shift to Books would have happened, unless they're both village in which case the elims had free reign to do whatever they wanted.

Pocketing means something different than it used to, gets applied far more readily nowadays to a wider variety of non-hostile interactions, so this isn't an Experience specific thing. I also don't think it's likely that an elim rioter would expose their existence so pointlessly with the prospect of getting alignment scanned, regardless of whether or not XP is a rioter.

I do also note that you're agreeing with Striker's read of you being strong elim.

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

That means that the late-ish push on books becomes suspicious. This is because pushing a villager as a counterwagon to a villager is something that strongly benefits elims, since it ensures that the original villager (striker) gets killed the next day. Since striker was really the only candidate at that point, I think that this strategy makes a whole lot of sense from their perspective, since they didn't have much else to do.

The second category of people I'm suspicious of is the people who voiced concerns over Ventyl.  Ventyl was the obvious kill there, and fanning doubt over him to discourage lurchers makes sense if you're going to kill him. But they were killed by Coinshot, and the elim kill targeted someone very low-priority. This is what made me think about a coinshot/mistborn elim. After all, if there was two elim kills, casting doubt over a villager that was relatively clear in order to 'justify' a coinshot kill would be smart.

Striker wasn't the only or even the main alternative candidate to Books. The first vote on Books was when Illwei had four votes and Striker, Reading, and Quinn all had two. The Books wagon started gaining steam to bring it into a 3-3-3 tie with Reading and Illwei, with Striker still at two votes. The late push on Books ocurred when Reading was the main alternative with four votes and Striker remaining at two, and ultimately ended up with that same two.

Striker was really the main one concerned about Ventyl and he's a villager. Mat was wary but that's not the same as suggesting a Coinshot hit Ventyl.

 

[Stick. she/her]

Looking at the full player list, here are the people I've got tentative village reads (or at least, somewhat-village reads) on, in no particular order:

Mat, Quinn, TUO, Fifth, Dannex, Stink, Bip, Tani, Bard, Maill, Pyro (this one's a gut read), Reading (this one's on thin ice)

By PoE, I'm left with these people:

Gears, Araris, Elan, Ash, TJ, illwei, Devo, Exp, Windrunner, Burnt, Daisy

That's 11 people, so I need to cut the list down by 4 to 5 people >> let me know if I've missed anyone

The bolded players haven't been talking much, so I don't know if I can really remove them from the list any time soon @Daisy has yet to speak  

I'll probably write a much bigger post during the day including my reasoning for the above reads. I might probably revise the list depending on the night kill(s).

[Quivil she/her]

15 hours ago, Illwei said:

the blood of all the ducks you've killed

 

Who me? (innocent face)

[Kasimir he/him]

Final time check: you have under two hours left in this Turn. Get those orders in!

[Kasimir he/him]

So, GM Announcement:

I've spoken to @Elbereth due to the fact my IM is currently not available (time crunch.) The short is: I've been pulling 2-3 hour nights for 1.5 months in the lead-up to a major competition presentation to the commander. It's done today, and my team did unexpectedly well (we won actually, and my division is going bananas) even though we just really didn't want the biggest boss to be mad at us.

I'm this close to passing out on the spot and I don't think I have it in me to last until 2300hrs. I've already made mistakes in processing some orders (the affected players will know.) As such, El has suggested that I kick rollover back to 2300hrs tomorrow, effectively granting everyone 24 more horus in the night, during which I will be passed out and sleeping like the gloriously triumphant dead man I am and trying to recover to the point I can at least competently GM this.

tldr; tired wrung-out Kas is half-arsed Kas, y'all deserve better, 24 hours more, come back, I'm gonna sleep like the dead and recharge my drained batteries. Goodnight world.

Edited March 4, 2021 by Kasimir

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So, GM Announcement:

I've spoken to Elbereth due to the fact my IM is currently not available (time crunch.) The short is: I've been pulling 2-3 hour nights for 1.5 months in the lead-up to a major competition presentation to the commander. It's done today, and my team did unexpectedly well (we won actually, and my division is going bananas) even though we just really didn't want the biggest boss to be mad at us.

I'm this close to passing out on the spot and I don't think I have it in me to last until 2300hrs. I've already made mistakes in processing some orders (the affected players will know.) As such, El has suggested that I kick rollover back to 2300hrs tomorrow, effectively granting everyone 24 more horus in the night, during which I will be passed out and sleeping like the gloriously triumphant dead man I am and trying to recover to the point I can at least competently GM this.

tldr; tired wrung-out Kas is half-arsed Kas, y'all deserve better, 24 hours more, come back, I'm gonna sleep like the dead and recharge my drained batteries. Goodnight world.

You get that well deserved rest man. Sleep well! Promise we won't start riots while you aren't looking

[Mailliw73 he/him]

10 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So if you're reading Stick as somewhat village and Striker and Ventyl are dead, does that make you reconsider which Books votes are more likely to be evil? Knowing if Illwei or Reading are evil could give a better understanding of when an elim shift to Books would have happened, unless they're both village in which case the elims had free reign to do whatever they wanted.

Pocketing means something different than it used to, gets applied far more readily nowadays to a wider variety of non-hostile interactions, so this isn't an Experience specific thing. I also don't think it's likely that an elim rioter would expose their existence so pointlessly with the prospect of getting alignment scanned, regardless of whether or not XP is a rioter.

I do also note that you're agreeing with Striker's read of you being strong elim.

I agree that Reading and particularly Illwei's flip would help us to better understand the Books train a lot better, since I am more confused now where the elims joined in, if at all. 

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. (Green-confirmed village, blue-moderate village, orange-moderate elim, yellow-lean elim, everyone else, if they're a mild read I didn't put any colors)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?). 

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement. 

Hopefully some of that made sense to some of you...

On your last paragraph, I didn't feel the need to explicitly point out that that was obviously a read I didn't agree with.  

[Quivil she/her]

2 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

You get that well deserved rest man. Sleep well! Promise we won't start riots while you aren't looking

Let's start a riot while Kasimir's not looking!

[---]

all we need is one person to vote during this night phase and I'll riot it dw

[STINK he/him]

Illwei

[Shard of Reading he/him]

Stink you stole my joke!

 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

8 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

Stink you stole my joke!

 

Classic Stink. 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Let's start a riot while Kasimir's not looking!

Me likey.

 

[Quivil she/her]

I have a gut feeling against Maill... and possibly some PMs stuff... just thought y'all should know...

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Tani said:

I have a gut feeling against Maill... and possibly some PMs stuff... just thought y'all should know...

That's funny, considering I do as well, and also have an elim read on you. Hmm. In fact, you two are my only suspicions that really stayed after Striker died.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

23 minutes ago, Tani said:

I have a gut feeling against Maill... and possibly some PMs stuff... just thought y'all should know...

The PMs stuff is all a big misunderstanding, I think. 

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's funny, considering I do as well, and also have an elim read on you. Hmm. In fact, you two are my only suspicions that really stayed after Striker died.

I'm pretty sure everyone has a permanent gut feeling against me in every game ever. I play with too random of a style for village gut reads, I think. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

The PMs stuff is all a big misunderstanding, I think. 

I'm pretty sure everyone has a permanent gut feeling against me in every game ever. I play with too random of a style for village gut reads, I think. 

I'm currently gut reading you slight village.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

7 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm currently gut reading you slight village.

Who are you and how did you manage this witchcraft?

[Kasimir he/him]

11 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

You get that well deserved rest man. Sleep well! Promise we won't start riots while you aren't looking

Things a GM does not want to wake up to after going dark for a night:

-Burnt offering to start a riot 

-Tani and TUO agreeing 

-Wyrm encouraging dead players, spectators, and the freaking IM to swear in my damn spec doc >> What the hell, bro... 

[Mat he/him]

The child returned the following night. Philico had remained by the abandoned building he had met the boy at before, telling himself it was that he was too lazy to move but knowing it was in hope of exactly what happened: A small shadow approaching him and silently sitting down a few feet in front of him.

“It’s late to be out here, boy.” Philico said. 

The shadow that was the child shifted. “Where else would I go?”

“Home.”

Philico noted the child slumping down. “I don’t got a home.”

He tightened his lips. “Parents? Mom and Dad?”

The child’s voice suddenly became choked up. “Dead.”

Philico said a silent prayer for the boy. He shouldn’t have to suffer like this, even in a situation as grim as Fallion’s Tears’ was. “What’s your name, boy?”

In the moonlight, he saw the boy’s face look up from the ground. “Peter.”

Philico smiled. “Peter. That’s a nice name. I’m… Phil.”

“It’s good to meet you, Mr. Phil.” Peter said, the words sounding practiced. Whoever his parents had been, they seemed to have taught him basic manners.

“Well, Peter, would you like to see a trick?”

Peter nodded vigorously, a grin breaking through his solemn nature. Yes, this was what he had come for. He simply had been too shy to ask.

Philico reached his hand behind his back, letting four hordelings crawl out and form a ball shape. No, he then thought. I need to do something better than that.

Instead, he let the ball dissolve back into him. And he began to make stuff up.

“Long ago,” he said, “In this very spot, before Fallion’s Tears had its name, a farming community was established. At its head were two men, named Ico and Draimon.” He chuckled a bit at that- the sounds came from the rest of his full name- Philicodraimon.

Peter listened, transfixed, completely believing the story. Well, as long as he was enjoying himself.

“These two men were brothers, and they didn’t get along very well. Ico wanted to conquer the various lands-” Philico skittered hordelings he had prepared across the floor, and in the darkness he imagined Peter would picture it as a miniature army. “-While Draimon just wanted to settle down.”

At the trick, Peter jumped, and then laughed. “Go on!” he said. 

“Eventually, the disagreement between them became so great that Ico plotted to kill Draimon. Stab his own brother in the back!” Peter gasped, not at the story, but because Philico had used a sizable portion of his own leg to form into a sword. Philico stood in a way that made it hard to tell, and to Peter would just look as if he had materialized a sword out of thin air.

“But Draimon was clever, and knew of his brother’s plans. The night of Ico’s attack Draimon slipped out of town, vowing only to return when he could overpower his brother and put him in his place. What happened next was extraordinary.” Philico sent synchronized colored hordelings in a fan pattern that made Peter gape.

“What next?” The boy asked, still hanging on each of Philico’s words.

“Next…” Philico finally realized how late it must be. Even now, young bodies needed sleep.

“Next, you go to bed and hear the rest tomorrow.”

“Aw…” Peter said, but the way he obediently stood up with a smile made it clear he was satisfied. “Goodbye, Mr. Philico. I hope you don’t die!” And he was gone.

“What a world this is that a child says that at a normal departure.” he murmured to himself. “But I do too.”

[Quivil she/her]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

“What next?” The boy asked, still hanging on each of Philico’s words.

“Next…” Philico finally realized how late it must be. Even now, young bodies needed sleep.

“Next, you go to bed and hear the rest tomorrow.”

“Aw…” Peter said, but the way he obediently stood up with a smile made it clear he was satisfied. “Goodbye, Mr. Philico. I hope you don’t die!” And he was gone.

“What a world this is that a child says that at a normal departure.” he murmured to himself. “But I do too.”

Let's not kill Matrim. I want to hear the rest of the story!

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Tani said:

Let's not kill Matrim. I want to hear the rest of the story!

Hahahahaahahaha my master plan is working!

[Quivil she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hahahahaahahaha my master plan is working!

Yep.

Guys, I want you all to know that I read Matrim as totally and definitely village.

At least until they finish the story.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

>INB4 the Spiked kill Matrim to lower the village's morale