Mid-Range Game 51: Come On Down To Irontown

[Kasimir he/him]

Cycle Four: 11th Doxil, 237

Spoiler

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Szeth was elected to the Inner Circle! He was aligned with the Workers!

Alvron has been elected Worker Leader!

The cycle has begun, and will end at 2300hrs (GMT+8) on Saturday, 3rd July!

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Inner Circle Votes:

Szeth (3): Tani, Striker
Archer (2): Mat, Liranil
Biplet (2): Araris, Lotus
Mat (1): Fifth
Lotus (1): Szeth
TUO (1): Mist

Worker Leader Votes:

Alv (5): Mat, Araris, Szeth, Lotus, Fifth
Steel (2): Tani, Archer
Mat (1): Striker
Szeth (1): Mist

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

1. What happens if a player is elected to the IC and as WL in the same cycle?

The IC election takes precedence. WL passes to the player with the next-highest amount of votes. Can neither confirm nor deny if broadsheet will reflect the divine status of a player who secures both top votes somehow >>

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice as Philico
2. @Tani as Sobek
3. @Araris Valerian as some grouchy old guy
4. Szeth_Pancakes - Worker
5. @Dannex as the kandra DaaNex
6. @Lotus
7. @Steeldancer as Steel
8. @The Unknown Order as Watcher, feeling the sweetness of freedom for another century
9. @Fifth Scholar as Darrel, old man who's seen one too many scrapes and retirement beckons
10. @Ashbringer as  Derrick, a happy-go-lucky steel guider who's finally found a chance for his voice to lead to some change
11. @StrikerEZ as Variel, a man with a nervous habit of wiping as much dirt off his clothes as possible
12. @Alvron as Klaas Vaak, an elderly gentleman with a bag of fine sand
13. |TJ| as Sonny, an overenthusiastic brash and showy young worker seeking revolution by revenge - Worker
14. Elandera - Loyalist
15. @Liranil
16. @Archer as Chalkboard, a general laborer with a voice like nails on a chalkboard
17. @Mist
18. @Biplet as Nolle, local overly friendly worker who gets a little too talkative after a few drinks at the Bent Boxing

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

I guess Striker wasn’t trying to mess with something with that switch lol. Was kind of paranoid about that all of a sudden. Ok.

Archer Liranil?

[Quivil she/her]

Steel

[Steeldancer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Tani said:

Steel

Ayyy ayyy Tani, you and archer are being great supports to my eventual election. I'll let you choose what kind of Cola you want when I get elected! 
The Steel Election Campaign is busy with various Hawaiian matters today, and must put off finishing the investigation into the various candidates. However, within the next 24 hours there should be enough time for the final report to be submitted. The official Steel Election Campaign's votes will be submitted at that point. 

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess Striker wasn’t trying to mess with something with that switch lol. Was kind of paranoid about that all of a sudden. Ok.

Archer Liranil?

Maaat. You're confusing me. We had two villagers in the lead there, so it didn't really matter where votes went. But support is support, so perhaps you aren't as evil as first thought. Huh. If the village hits 3 councillors, it's a really dangerous situation for the elims, so I don't see the value in letting another villager through this easily. 

Striker playing chaos demon felt elimy to me. Ashbringer had a good post in another game on why arbitrarily creating ties sucks that I agreed with. Tani I have mixed feelings about. She thought it'd make a tie, so I'll judge it as if she did. It's better than trying to force an e/v tie, but it stopped my ascension, so it's obviously bad. :P. My best trust right now is Liranil, who pointed out the logic of if you trust me, you should vote for me, not who I'm voting for. I'm still down to be elected, then if she gets in, that's our four, so I don't need any more village trusts. Easy peezy. I can stop reorganizing connection webs every 15 minutes. 

Edit: also I'd rather be voted out than have the responsibility of double votes, so please either get rid of me or let me be hopelessly harmless (not the WL) 

Liranil Liranil

Edited July 1, 2021 by Archer

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Maaat. You're confusing me. We had two villagers in the lead there, so it didn't really matter where votes went. But support is support, so perhaps you aren't as evil as first thought. Huh. If the village hits 3 councillors, it's a really dangerous situation for the elims, so I don't see the value in letting another villager through this easily. 

No I mean before Szeth flipped, Striker last-second switched from you to Szeth and I suddenly worried they were e/e, which would make you village. Obviously that wasn’t the case and I still village read you. It was a what if that didn’t happen, that’s all. Which imo makes Striker’s switch NAI, because if it was v/v it doesn’t matter if he does it as elim and a villager could just do it anyway :P. If he’s elim you’re village for sure though.

[Quivil she/her]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Tani I have mixed feelings about. She thought it'd make a tie, so I'll judge it as if she did. It's better than trying to force an e/v tie, but it stopped my ascension, so it's obviously bad.

I swiched back partially for the tie and mostly because I trust Szeth more than you, even before he(?) flipped vil.

Edit: Also, Steel.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Tani

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Striker playing chaos demon felt elimy to me. Ashbringer had a good post in another game on why arbitrarily creating ties sucks that I agreed with.

Just want to say: I completely disagree. Ties are very fun and I like making them at any point I possibly can. Regardless of alignment. Just go look at the last QF to see that (I think that’s the game it was) I do it as a villager. And I’m sure you can probably find examples where I did it as an elim as well, I just can’t remember it off the top of my head. 

[Alvron he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Alvron has been elected Worker Leader!

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Liranil?

I just get elected to WL and already you're trying to take my power away from me?!  Well, I guess you shouldn't be counting on my vote for you this cycle.   

 

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Just want to say: I completely disagree. Ties are very fun and I like making them at any point I possibly can. Regardless of alignment.

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

I just get elected to WL and already you're trying to take my power away from me?!  Well, I guess you shouldn't be counting on my vote for you this cycle.   

 

You think I could get the Gods of Luck and Chance you represent to sponsor me? 

[Quivil she/her]

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

You think I could get the Gods of Luck and Chance you represent to sponsor me? 

Nah.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

27 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

You think I could get the Gods of Luck and Chance you represent to sponsor me? 

The real question is, how many animal crackers do you have laying around?  

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No I mean before Szeth flipped, Striker last-second switched from you to Szeth and I suddenly worried they were e/e, which would make you village. Obviously that wasn’t the case and I still village read you. It was a what if that didn’t happen, that’s all. Which imo makes Striker’s switch NAI, because if it was v/v it doesn’t matter if he does it as elim and a villager could just do it anyway :P. If he’s elim you’re village for sure though.

So this is the post I want to focus on because I have a possibly genius, possibly idiotic idea for winning the game by force (without making the Tineye tip their hand) based on last cycle, and Mat’s comment here inspired it. Essentially, today everyone votes on Striker and we might as well let Alv be Worker Leader again, though I don’t care as much about the second. 

If Striker is village (I’m putting arbitrary 85% odds on this, since I don’t see a reason for him to do the Szeth hammer thing as an Elim when he’d already led a wagon on a very vocal villager, which would have been more than enough to gain trust): We’re up 3-1. Since the Elims would have to elect three of their own, we triangúlate three people who would basically be “impossible teammates” (I’ll say myself, Archer, and Mat arbitrarily as people whom I’ve disagreed with sharply but read as village), and elect them all in order of least to most suspicious. The Elims have to tip their hand early with a hammer or lose, and we’re going straight to the Assassination cycle. This is the happy outcome where I’m right about my reads after failing at Szeth and Elandera, and possibly even get elected, so this would be great.

Then there’s possibility two, with arbitrary 15% odds. Striker’s good voting record and random switch were all a ploy, and he’s evil. It’s now 2-2 and seems to be a bit tougher, but it’s really 3-2 and pretty much 4-2 because in this world, Archer is 1000% extra double cleared, plus tax, for obvious reasons (elim!Striker would have to be absolutely boneheaded to move his double vote off a teammate like that to create a tie), and Biplet is slightly less cleared, but e!Striker could have easily switched to an e!Bip on the grounds that she’s his girlfriend and not too many people would have questioned it given that she already had two votes, so she’s in the clear as well. The Elims would have had a golden opportunity to put either of the two through last cycle and didn’t. We elect Archer then Biplet and win. If one of them is super deepwolfing, we avoid electing people who supported Elan, Striker and the elim in the past (which would sadly include me), and our analysis should be good enough to get the final villager on the IC. So what say you all?

[Alvron he/him]

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

You think I could get the Gods of Luck and Chance you represent to sponsor me? 

I can always put in the request.  The question is, what's it worth to you to have their sponsorship?

[Steeldancer he/him]

15 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I can always put in the request.  The question is, what's it worth to you to have their sponsorship?

At least 5 pairs of shoes and my good reputation. 

[Quivil she/her]

Spoiler

14 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The real question is, how many animal crackers do you have laying around?  

So this is the post I want to focus on because I have a possibly genius, possibly idiotic idea for winning the game by force (without making the Tineye tip their hand) based on last cycle, and Mat’s comment here inspired it. Essentially, today everyone votes on Striker and we might as well let Alv be Worker Leader again, though I don’t care as much about the second. 

If Striker is village (I’m putting arbitrary 85% odds on this, since I don’t see a reason for him to do the Szeth hammer thing as an Elim when he’d already led a wagon on a very vocal villager, which would have been more than enough to gain trust): We’re up 3-1. Since the Elims would have to elect three of their own, we triangúlate three people who would basically be “impossible teammates” (I’ll say myself, Archer, and Mat arbitrarily as people whom I’ve disagreed with sharply but read as village), and elect them all in order of least to most suspicious. The Elims have to tip their hand early with a hammer or lose, and we’re going straight to the Assassination cycle. This is the happy outcome where I’m right about my reads after failing at Szeth and Elandera, and possibly even get elected, so this would be great.

Then there’s possibility two, with arbitrary 15% odds. Striker’s good voting record and random switch were all a ploy, and he’s evil. It’s now 2-2 and seems to be a bit tougher, but it’s really 3-2 and pretty much 4-2 because in this world, Archer is 1000% extra double cleared, plus tax, for obvious reasons (elim!Striker would have to be absolutely boneheaded to move his double vote off a teammate like that to create a tie), and Biplet is slightly less cleared, but e!Striker could have easily switched to an e!Bip on the grounds that she’s his girlfriend and not too many people would have questioned it given that she already had two votes, so she’s in the clear as well. The Elims would have had a golden opportunity to put either of the two through last cycle and didn’t. We elect Archer then Biplet and win. If one of them is super deepwolfing, we avoid electing people who supported Elan, Striker and the elim in the past (which would sadly include me), and our analysis should be good enough to get the final villager on the IC. So what say you all?

 

(The hidden bit is a really long quote, Fifth's post.)

Sure. This sounds good. (It also very much sounds like something a villager would say.) Striker.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, so, not sure how I feel about Fifth voting on me, but I would not be opposed to getting elected this cycle if that's what you guys want. In case that's not what you guys want as a whole, I'll be voting for Archer as a second option for the election, as he's someone I trust. I'll also be voting for Alvron for WL because I trust him as well, plus having him as a WL for whatever happens next cycle sounds like a good idea to me.

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IC:

Striker (2): Fifth Scholar, Tani
Archer (2): Matrim's Dice, Striker
Liranil (1): Archer

WL:

Alvron (2): Fifth Scholar, Striker
Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, Archer 

Filling the empty space

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Here's my reasoning for my reads:

Steel: They feel like a villager who's trying to get elected and using roleplay to do so. I also don't think an elim would be as blatant as Steel has been.

Striker is confusing me.

Mat: I actually hadn't noticed the connections to Elandera and was just gut reading this, but now it's stronger due to those.

Fifth: I'm still getting a little gut on his last few posts, but his previous feels good to me, so read this as a null I guess, an evidence supported null.

I haven't voted for the IC yet, and I don't think I will yet, if ever.

[Quivil she/her]

27 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

WL:

Alvron (2): Fifth Scholar, Striker
Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, Archer 

I voted Steel for WL

6 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I haven't voted for the IC yet, and I don't think I will yet, if ever.

You just voted Steel for IC. Purple is WL, red is IC.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Tani

[Biplet she/her]

Hello, I've missed a lot thanks to Life(tm) but I'm here to try again! Hooray!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I am going to vote for Fifth for WL. And I agree with Fifth on Striker, who has taken some concrete action to help the village, whereas it's a bit harder to tell with other people. In particular, if one of Archer/Biplet is elim, then Striker is almost certainly village. If Striker is somehow elim, then Archer and Biplet are likely both village (the hammer would be a ploy to gain trust here). I think I've ended up just restating Fifth's post from above, but Striker/Bip/Archer should only contain 1 elim at most, so we just elect all 3 and win.

Fifth is the WL candidate since he isn't any of the three people from above, which means there won't be any weirdness where we want the WL to vote for themselves but they can't. And I like his plan, since I can pretty much reach the same conclusion on my own.

I'd also like to request that Striker remove his vote from Archer if Striker wants to get elected this turn. That will make a switch later on less likely, if he is comfortable with this plan of attack.

[Liranil she/her]

Something about Fifth's reasoning strikes me as off and I don't like it. Maybe it's because they included hard number percentages when there's really no reason for that? 

But I'm much more inclined to trust Archer than Striker right now. Szeth flipping bill doesn't clear Archer (or Striker IMO), but it is a point in Archer's favor. Like I said last round, why be willing to trust Archer's suggestion that we vote for Szeth if we don't trust him enough to vote him?

(Sorry if my vote doesn't work, I'm on mobile.)

[Mat he/him]

I think I’m still inclined to vote based on my reasoning instead of numbers and probability, especially when I don’t actually remember why Bip/Striker can’t be e/e (I don’t think they are, but I don’t think there’s any reason they technically couldn’t be) and you can call me paranoid but I’m nervous about a plan stated by someone I’ve had a zero percent success rate village reading (who I’m village reading now) that gets consecutive agreements and is about someone who voted Elandera.

Maybe that’s not fair since I also voted Elan, but since I know I’m village maybe that makes Striker more likely to be elim :P. I don’t have any specific problem with the plan and wouldn’t even be upset if it went through, but I’d still rather go with my trusts as opposed to numbers.

[Alvron he/him]

@Kasimir 2 things

First: Go to sleep!
Second:  When you wake up from your 3-5 hour nap, what happens if someone is voted WL and IC on the same cycle? 
I admit, I really want to see what happens (in regards to the broadsheet) and might even start my own campaign to see if I can do it.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I'm...not sure how I feel about the fact that two players I'm not sure I trust (Fifth and Araris) are both voting for me...but I think I'm just going to go with it. Archer because I'm fine with getting elected by now. I would be fine with any of the other election candidates that currently have votes on them though. I mostly wouldn't be fine with electing Fifth, Araris, and Bip. I'm a little worried by how much Araris has been trying to get me elected, as if he's hoping to pocket me and get his vote on me. Fifth's tone has just been throwing me off all game, even if I think his current plan makes sense for us to try and do. And I'm not sure how I feel about Bip being this quiet. Especially with Araris also voting on her a bunch as well. 

And now that Liranil has started showing up more as well, I'm getting an odd tone from her as well. Not so much from her votes, but because of just how she's talking in general.

Anyway, have a new VC

Quote

IC:

Striker (3): Fifth Scholar, Tani, Araris
Archer (2): Matrim's Dice, Liranil
Steeldancer (1): TUO
Liranil (1): Archer

WL:

Alvron (2): Fifth Scholar, Striker
Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, Archer 
Steeldancer (1): Tani
Fifth Scholar (1): Araris

This version should be all correct.