Mid-Range Game 51: Come On Down To Irontown

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, Alvron said:

@Kasimir 2 things

First: Go to sleep!
Second:  When you wake up from your 3-5 hour nap, what happens if someone is voted WL and IC on the same cycle? 
I admit, I really want to see what happens (in regards to the broadsheet) and might even start my own campaign to see if I can do it.

Clarified on one of the previous cycles I believe — IC takes priority so they are elected, and then WL passes to next-highest train. 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 hour ago, Liranil said:

Something about Fifth's reasoning strikes me as off and I don't like it. Maybe it's because they included hard number percentages when there's really no reason for that? 

I said those were completely arbitrary, for the record. The point of my plan is that it doesn’t really matter whether Striker’s good or not, as we win either way assuming we follow through with it  The percentages were kinda just my updated read on Striker himself. So I guess I’m proving your point that they probably weren’t necessary, but they were fun, so  

1 hour ago, Liranil said:

Like I said last round, why be willing to trust Archer's suggestion that we vote for Szeth if we don't trust him enough to vote him?

This is a good point and I found the Szeth vote weird too, but next round with a Striker exe, we’re either up 3-1 or we eliminate the uncertainty around Archer completely and go up 3-2 (and 4-2 in a perfect world), so I’d prefer delaying his election by another cycle regardless. I do agree that he’s probably village though.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think I’m still inclined to vote based on my reasoning instead of numbers and probability, especially when I don’t actually remember why Bip/Striker can’t be e/e (I don’t think they are, but I don’t think there’s any reason they technically couldn’t be) and you can call me paranoid but I’m nervous about a plan stated by someone I’ve had a zero percent success rate village reading (who I’m village reading now) that gets consecutive agreements and is about someone who voted Elandera.

Maybe that’s not fair since I also voted Elan, but since I know I’m village maybe that makes Striker more likely to be elim :P. I don’t have any specific problem with the plan and wouldn’t even be upset if it went through, but I’d still rather go with my trusts as opposed to numbers.

Did Striker vote Elan? I thought her wagon was me, you, Araris and Steel, who claims to have been sheeping me. Regardless, the point on Bip is that similar to Archer, e!Striker could have easily elected e!Bip last cycle on personal grounds which nobody really would have questioned instead of swinging his double vote to Szeth, especially since she already had two votes. It’s less airtight than Archer, who was actually leading in votes, but assuming the Elims to be acting with some semblance of rationality, it’s better to get one of their own on the IC with minimal suspicion than to…not, which makes me think the pair isn’t e/e. (If Striker is evil, which I maintain is unlikely, there’s another reason he probably chose Szeth over Archer and Bip, but I’ll leave it vague on the grounds of not giving the Elims more ideas to work with.) And I really don’t blame your hesitancy, my play this game is looking a lot more AG4 than it is MR33, but I had an idea and thought it was a good one, so I shared it anyway  

[Archer he/him]

22 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The real question is, how many animal crackers do you have laying around?  

So this is the post I want to focus on because I have a possibly genius, possibly idiotic idea for winning the game by force (without making the Tineye tip their hand) based on last cycle, and Mat’s comment here inspired it. Essentially, today everyone votes on Striker and we might as well let Alv be Worker Leader again, though I don’t care as much about the second. 

...

Knowing that I’m a villager, and being suspicious of Striker for easily trusting Elandera (despite their not doing much to earn said trust), I’m not going to vote for them. I don’t however mind the dichotomy because I know it guarantees a villager will be elected. At worst, we end the experiment with 3 villagers on the council to 2 elims.

If e!Striker is elected, it’s too early to hammer and my village alignment will be apparent, so the scheme will work as intended. Then I’d recommend tapping Liranil to complete our quartet.

If v!Striker is elected, I’d actually recommend looking elsewhere for villagers. My reads are made in good faith, but in that situation it’ll look like an elim trying to sus villagers. There’s plenty of other candidates for election, at that point, I’ll take a backseat and support someone else. Probably Fifth, because then they’d have suggested a v/v plan and that’s a disaster for the elims.

Good suggestion!

7 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Here's my reasoning for my reads: Steel: They feel like a villager who's trying to get elected and using roleplay to do so. I also don't think an elim would be as blatant as Steel has been.

The way this game works, once an elim supports a teammate getting elected, it becomes really really hard for them to get elected themselves. So they need to find ways to get elected that don't rely on their teammates being their sole supporters. RP is a good way to do that, so I'm suspicious of their campaign. 

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I am going to vote for Fifth for WL. And I agree with Fifth on Striker, who has taken some concrete action to help the village, whereas it's a bit harder to tell with other people. In particular, if one of Archer/Biplet is elim, then Striker is almost certainly village. If Striker is somehow elim, then Archer and Biplet are likely both village (the hammer would be a ploy to gain trust here). I think I've ended up just restating Fifth's post from above, but Striker/Bip/Archer should only contain 1 elim at most, so we just elect all 3 and win.

Fifth is the WL candidate since he isn't any of the three people from above, which means there won't be any weirdness where we want the WL to vote for themselves but they can't. And I like his plan, since I can pretty much reach the same conclusion on my own.

I'd also like to request that Striker remove his vote from Archer if Striker wants to get elected this turn. That will make a switch later on less likely, if he is comfortable with this plan of attack.

It would have been difficult for Striker to contribute to the elim team after switching off a villager onto an elim like that, IRL fake reasons or not. But I think he would have been fine with the cost because it only burns his chances, and he's got five or so teammates that can be elected instead. So I think you're right about Biplet and Striker not being e/e, which makes his vote switching look less malicious. Interesting. 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Did Striker vote Elan? I thought her wagon was me, you, Araris and Steel, who claims to have been sheeping me. 

Striker was on Elan until the wagon was large enough to be assured, then he hopped off iirc

[Liranil she/her]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I said those were completely arbitrary, for the record. The point of my plan is that it doesn’t really matter whether Striker’s good or not, as we win either way assuming we follow through with it  The percentages were kinda just my updated read on Striker himself. So I guess I’m proving your point that they probably weren’t necessary, but they were fun, so  

Oh, I know that your numbers were arbitrary, and that you said that. Arbitrary numbers seem like a good way to get people who aren't paying too much attention to go "huh, that makes sense" and follow your logic. But I'm sure I'm reading too much into that. 

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

And now that Liranil has started showing up more as well, I'm getting an odd tone from her as well. Not so much from her votes, but because of just how she's talking in general.

Lol, I get it, I don't even know what I'm saying half the time anyway.

Some of the connections people are making between players don't make any sense and everything's kind of jumbled. My brain hurts too much for this game. I'm fine with the Striker plan, I don't really have a read on him, but I don't agree with all of the things people think his flip is going to tell us. The Striker/Biplet connection Fifth made seems shaky to me.

IDK. I want to vote Archer for WL but he said he didn't want that.

[Biplet she/her]

I definitely like the reasoning behind Striker for the IC vote. I've had a good read on him for a bit now, despite my lack of playing.

Liranil. Subject to change.

[+Lotus she/her]

Jim, I’m not a huge fan of the striker Vite. Been getting kinda bad vibes from him.

 Alvlon and Mist  for now 

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

 Alvlon and Mist  for now 

Hey now.  Why you voting for me?  I'm not evil!  I don't deserve to be voted out.   

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

Hey now.  Why you voting for me?  I'm not evil!  I don't deserve to be voted out.   

I don't think that's how this works.  

[Alvron he/him]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don't think that's how this works.  

Sure it does.  Every other game I get voted on, I say I'm not evil and I get more votes so that's exactly how it works.

[Liranil she/her]

7 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Jim, I’m not a huge fan of the striker Vite. Been getting kinda bad vibes from him.

 Alvlon and Mist  for now 

So you don't think it's a good idea to vote Striker, so you're adding another person to the mix?

[Alvron he/him]

♪♫♪♫♪
I'm so tired
I haven't slept a wink
I'm so tired
My mind is on the blink
I wonder, should I get up and fix myself a drink?
No, no, no
I'm so tired
I don't know what to do
I'm so tired
It's doing me harm
You know I can't sleep
I can't stop my brain
You know it's three weeks
I'm going insane
♫♪♫♪♫♪♫♪

You know Kas, you really should sleep more.

[+Lotus she/her]

29 minutes ago, Liranil said:

So you don't think it's a good idea to vote Striker, so you're adding another person to the mix?

KAS radio’s official comment on this is that they’re fact checkers were too tired to go and figure out who else was in the running

[Quivil she/her]

I've decided to pull a Kas and not sleep much tonight.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Tani

[Mist she/her]

Also why do I do this so often like first day of a game I'm like woooo let's go analysis and then later cycles it's like oh yeah that thing that everyone wants me to do.

Huh. I...I appreciate the sentiment in a vote but am wondering about reasoning, since I've made like one post this game. Well Lotus did vote Illwei (heh other me) previously too also as a poke. Well I'm here, mostly. 

Nooooo Tani but sleep is good says the person not sleeping

Elandera was sus of a Striker Szeth pair at least I think I'm reading my notes right I'd better go check why didn't I use full sentences okay well fair that was a while back

okay I'm going to sleep I'll be back

[The Unknown Order he/him]

On 7/2/2021 at 10:43 AM, Tani said:

I voted Steel for WL

You just voted Steel for IC. Purple is WL, red is IC.

*sighs* Striker, Striker.

18 hours ago, Archer said:

The way this game works, once an elim supports a teammate getting elected, it becomes really really hard for them to get elected themselves. So they need to find ways to get elected that don't rely on their teammates being their sole supporters. RP is a good way to do that, so I'm suspicious of their campaign. 

Look at how, frankly, inefficient Steel's campaign is. Does that look like a strategy for getting elected? It has only gotten two or three serious votes and a couple of trusts.

Edited July 3, 2021 by The Unknown Order

[Kasimir he/him]

This is your timecheck: Nine more hours to rollover.

[Mist she/her]

21 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Here's my reasoning for my reads:

Steel: They feel like a villager who's trying to get elected and using roleplay to do so. I also don't think an elim would be as blatant as Steel has been.

Striker is confusing me.

Mat: I actually hadn't noticed the connections to Elandera and was just gut reading this, but now it's stronger due to those.

Fifth: I'm still getting a little gut on his last few posts, but his previous feels good to me, so read this as a null I guess, an evidence supported null.

I haven't voted for the IC yet, and I don't think I will yet, if ever.

 

8 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

*sighs* Striker, Striker.

Look at how, frankly, inefficient Steel's campaign is. Does that look like a strategy for getting elected? It has only gotten two or three serious votes and a couple of trusts.

Did you mean to unvote Steel?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

So, here's a VC:

Quote

IC:

Striker (4): Fifth Scholar, Tani, Araris, Biplet
Archer (2): Matrim's Dice, Liranil
Alvron (1): Lotus
Liranil (1): Archer

WL:

Liranil (3): Matrim's Dice, Archer, Biplet
Alvron (2): Fifth Scholar, Striker
Steeldancer (1): Tani
Striker (1): TUO
Fifth Scholar (1): Araris
Mist (1): Lotus

Looks like I'm about to be elected. I'm not sure how I feel about it being done by a bunch of people I'm not sure about, but hey, can't complain.

[Kasimir he/him]

Alright, time's up, and the cycle's ended.

I was tired enough I almost posted this warning/rollover to the Day 4 thread of LG78 just 'cause it was at the top of the forum so that'd have been awkward, gg me, sorry Striker and Bip  

Now, to sort these things out...

[Quivil she/her]

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I was tired enough I almost posted this warning/rollover to the Day 4 thread of LG78 just 'cause it was at the top of the forum so that'd have been awkward, gg me, sorry Striker and Bip  

Kas, you need to sleep.

[Kasimir he/him]

Cycle Five - 12th Doxil, 237

Spoiler

---

Striker was elected to the Inner Circle! He was aligned with the Loyalists!

Liranil has been elected Worker Leader!

The cycle has begun, and will end at 2300hrs (GMT+8) on Monday, 5rd July!

Quote

Inner Circle Votes:

Striker (4): Tani, Araris, Fifth, Biplet
Archer (2): Mat, Liranil
Alv (1): Lotus
Liranil (1): Archer
Steel (1): TUO

Worker Leader Votes:

Liranil (3): Mat, Archer, Biplet
Alv (2): Fifth, Striker
Fifth (1): Araris
Mist (1): Lotus
Steel (1): Tani
Striker (1): TUO

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

Stuff

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice as Philico
2. @Tani as Sobek
3. @Araris Valerian as some grouchy old guy
4. Szeth_Pancakes - Worker
5. @Dannex as the kandra DaaNex
6. @Lotus
7. @Steeldancer as Steel
8. @The Unknown Order as Watcher, feeling the sweetness of freedom for another century
9. @Fifth Scholar as Darrel, old man who's seen one too many scrapes and retirement beckons
10. @Ashbringer as  Derrick, a happy-go-lucky steel guider who's finally found a chance for his voice to lead to some change
11. StrikerEZ as Variel, a man with a nervous habit of wiping as much dirt off his clothes as possible - Loyalist
12. @Alvron as Klaas Vaak, an elderly gentleman with a bag of fine sand
13. |TJ| as Sonny, an overenthusiastic brash and showy young worker seeking revolution by revenge - Worker
14. Elandera - Loyalist
15. @Liranil
16. @Archer as Chalkboard, a general laborer with a voice like nails on a chalkboard
17. @Mist
18. @Biplet as Nolle, local overly friendly worker who gets a little too talkative after a few drinks at the Bent Boxing

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Kasimir

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Welp. I’m currently batting .125 on my reads (thought TJ was null, Elandera village, Szeth evil and Striker village), so that’s an exciting return to real analysis. On the plus side, I did plan for this, so Archer Mat, and once we elect him and Bip (or someone else like Mat, since apparently people aren’t as sure of her as I am), we should win. Kinda disappointed that it’s happening this way and not because I had genius insight into alignments, but I’ll take anything at this point  

[Steeldancer he/him]

Fifth you've voted for 2 evils now. Kinda sus bro

[Mat he/him]

Yeah I’m with Steel, not following through his plan like he said :P. That doesn’t seem like a good idea. Especially since Bip just went along with it, no consideration.

Archer, Liranil. I propose Archer’s alternate, with him and then Liranil.