Long Game 78: The Legend of Zelda: The False Heroes

[Quivil she/her]

Please vote Tani off if you have nothing else productive to do. I'm getting this game and the MR mixed up. If it will convince you to kill me, I'll even joke-claim elim. Or Zelda. Or Link. Or whatever role you want dead.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Tani

[Archer he/him]

Now that we have at least one elim off of Illwei's trust list, I'm actually less singlemindedly interested in hunting through it for elims. So I'm not going to vote for you, Tani, today! 

Dannex probably survived because the elims expected Mipha to protect them.

I have two theories:
-Link was redirected, in which case, his cover is blown and we should begin panicking and Zelda needs to go into deep cover
-Link didn't want to kill someone Zelda might scan, so they used their smarts and made a good unexpected selection
Based on their bluetext about their tennis tournament, their inactivity wasn't intentional. Otherwise I'd be a little irked if that strat was employed intentionally.

Araris poked Ashbringer, fake claimed a joke role to get on Illwei's village reads list presumably, asked for a Kas PM, advocated for consolidation of votes and held his in reserve to vote on someone who seemed like a viable exe target, voted for Azmine, supported Illwei's read of TUO being TWTBAW, then said they were as confident as they'd ever been that TUO was village, switched from Azmine to TUO D1.
D2 they voted Ashbringer again, argued his analysis was invalid, and got needled by Mat.
From this, I believe Ashbringer, TJ, and Azmine are cleared. TUO appears to be an elim who got in trouble early and needed his teammates to bail him out. Illwei on her own supporting him could be misdirection, but two seems too much to ignore. TUO
Unless anyone has any objections, this cycle is probably gonna be pretty quiet and straightforward. Soooo anyone got any ideas on how we can protect our conf goods now that Mipha has died?

[Quivil she/her]

Ok. I suppose I can be useful while I'm waiting for death. TUO.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Matrim's Dice has been killed! They were a Hyrulean Mipha!
Araris Valerian has been killed! They were a Yiga King Rhoam!

Neat. One for two isn't bad, and for the record I definitely called it about King Rhoam being evil.

Losing Mipha kinda sucks though. I'm going to suggest that if you have a Durian and you aren't Zelda or Link, maybe pass it to someone you think is one of those roles? Idk it should increase our chances of denying the elims their win condition.

4 hours ago, |TJ| said:

I'll go back to TUO btw. Both Illwei and Araris very strongly defended TUO in the first cycle, that it's gotta be a move that screams 'it's too elimy for the elims to defend themselves so we're gonna do exactly that". I'll be back after re-reading the thread looking for Araris interactions.

I'm wary of this, honestly. I guess it's possible, but idk I don't really see Araris bluntly defending a teammate like that.

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Please vote Tani off if you have nothing else productive to do. I'm getting this game and the MR mixed up. If it will convince you to kill me, I'll even joke-claim elim. Or Zelda. Or Link. Or whatever role you want dead.

I mean, people are going to vote for who they suspect. I'm not going to vote for you just because you asked  I don't suspect you that much. Like, if you sincerely want to withdraw from the game (which would be sad but yeah sometimes other stuff has to take priority), you can very much do that without voting yourself up, which would only be harmful to whoever your faction is. and if the request wasn't sincere then well we'll cross that bridge when we get to it

 

Unless I'm mistaken it doesn't seem likely that people would follow me on Steel so for now I'm gonna try TJ.

[Quivil she/her]

27 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I mean, people are going to vote for who they suspect. I'm not going to vote for you just because you asked  I don't suspect you that much. Like, if you sincerely want to withdraw from the game (which would be sad but yeah sometimes other stuff has to take priority), you can very much do that without voting yourself up, which would only be harmful to whoever your faction is.

IF YOU HAVE NOTHING ELSE (read: more) PRODUCTIVE TO DO.

[danex he/him]

34 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm wary of this, honestly. I guess it's possible, but idk I don't really see Araris bluntly defending a teammate like that.

I mean, cmon, when 2 known elims have both defended this person, that can’t be a coincidence right?

TUO

34 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

so for now I'm gonna try TJ.

Why? I’ve been reading TJ fairly village. More Null-Village I guess, but def not elim.

[attic_gremlin]

Right now I tend to agree that 2 confirmed elims heavily defending TUO from the beginning is too much to be a coincidence

[YeetAroundABush]

Very Sorry, TUO, but there's too much evidence against you.

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Tani said:

Please vote Tani off if you have nothing else productive to do. I'm getting this game and the MR mixed up. If it will convince you to kill me, I'll even joke-claim elim. Or Zelda. Or Link. Or whatever role you want dead.

Upon further consideration, this kinda feels like a desperate elim tactic. If its an OOC thing, it should be dealt with OOC. I'd white text that, but I'm on mobile, which is where running jokes go to die. 

Hey Dannex, are you in contact with Zelda and able to reveal scan results? I'm hoping they got one off on Tani. 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Neat. One for two isn't bad, and for the record I definitely called it about King Rhoam being evil.

Losing Mipha kinda sucks though. I'm going to suggest that if you have a Durian and you aren't Zelda or Link, maybe pass it to someone you think is one of those roles? Idk it should increase our chances of denying the elims their win condition.

I'm wary of this, honestly. I guess it's possible, but idk I don't really see Araris bluntly defending a teammate like that.

Unless I'm mistaken it doesn't seem likely that people would follow me on Steel so for now I'm gonna try TJ.

Araris said quoteish "I'm the most confident I've ever been D1 that TUO is village". That's very out of character for him. TUO got some serious scrutiny D1. If he was evil, his teammates may have been forced to defend them. Is your theory they just wanted to look good off his village flip? Wouldn't it be suspicious how confident they were? why must you start acting evil when I was easing up on my elim read of you :/

Steel who Illwei had as their top suspect? You're correct, I wouldn't vote for them. :P. TUO's flip is very indicative of TJ's alignment, so by the end of Today you should have some of the info you seek. 

Edit: also, if TUO claims Link, I won't believe them, by the way. Just putting that out there for later

Edited June 28, 2021 by Archer

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’ll go for TUO as well.

Araris and Illwei didn’t interact much at all. I find that interesting, but with Stick flipping Village and Mat getting NKd that leaves Archer, Steel, Drake, and Ash for major Illwei connections. Steel and Drake would be the ones I’m most wary of, but we might want to look at people Illwei pointedly didn’t interact with, such as… Tani, I guess. But TUO is definitely tied to Illwei much stronger than adjacency tally says.

@The Unknown Order because we seem to be bandwagoning, if for good reason.

I’ll be mobile only for the next week, so while I’ll still be around expect fewer posts and especially fewer massive ones.

[quillinthestars he/him]

I was ready to vote for TUO before all the bandwagoning happened, so you can count me in on that

[Alvron he/him]

With Mipha dead, Dannex's time is limited unless we have a Knight or two hanging around that is willing to protect them.  But if we don't then I think it's a good idea to make use of the confirmed village while we can.  To that end I ask that every Postman puts one random player in contact with Dannex so we can get some information gathered that Dannex could pass along to a trusted source.

[danex he/him]

27 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I ask that every Postman puts one random player in contact with Dannex so we can get some information gathered that Dannex could pass along to a trusted source.

Sure, I’m down for that.

I don’t know how helpful it’d be, especially considering I’m 99% sure I have this game solved

but it’s definitely not a bad plan.

How many Elims do we think there are? 5? 

[Quivil she/her]

Personally, I think there are 72 elims.

No opinion on this. How many players are there again?

[Alvron he/him]

25 minutes ago, Dannex said:

I don’t know how helpful it’d be, especially considering I’m 99% sure I have this game solved

If you have it solved then please share with the class.

[danex he/him]

11 minutes ago, Alvron said:

If you have it solved then please share with the class.

Ah, but that would take all the fun out of everything, wouldn’t it?

Also I’m not actually that confident, and if I voice my suspicions now it could possibly backfire.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, Dannex said:

I mean, cmon, when 2 known elims have both defended this person, that can’t be a coincidence right?

TUO

Why? I’ve been reading TJ fairly village. More Null-Village I guess, but def not elim.

 

Where elims are concerned coincidences are rare, but that does not say as much about alignment as you seem to be suggesting.

Basically, my reasons for thinking TJ is a better bet for the exe are:

• Their tone in the D1 discussion felt very different than usual imo
• It sorta stuck out to me that TJ said they always do a PM with Kas and Illwei, and IIRC only really asked for a PM with one of those players in this game
• Kinda feels like they were trying to downplay / devalue analysis of things Illwei had said but idk

I'm not as sure about this as I'd like to be, but I'm more sure about it than I am about TUO.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Upon further consideration, this kinda feels like a desperate elim tactic. If its an OOC thing, it should be dealt with OOC. I'd white text that, but I'm on mobile, which is where running jokes go to die. 

Hey Dannex, are you in contact with Zelda and able to reveal scan results? I'm hoping they got one off on Tani. 

Agreed. @Dannex I am going to assume you would have passed it on if Zelda had scanned an eliminator.

Quote

Araris said quoteish "I'm the most confident I've ever been D1 that TUO is village". That's very out of character for him. TUO got some serious scrutiny D1. If he was evil, his teammates may have been forced to defend them. Is your theory they just wanted to look good off his village flip? Wouldn't it be suspicious how confident they were? why must you start acting evil when I was easing up on my elim read of you :/

Steel who Illwei had as their top suspect? You're correct, I wouldn't vote for them. :P. TUO's flip is very indicative of TJ's alignment, so by the end of Today you should have some of the info you seek. 

Edit: also, if TUO claims Link, I won't believe them, by the way. Just putting that out there for later

I reiterate some of what I said in our PM: In theory, I could get behind TUO being in the running for the votes. The reasoning against them might prove accurate, and while they aren't my top suspicion at all they definitely aren't on my trust reads either. But the train on them feels... Exaggerated, I guess? I'm not sure if that's the right way to describe it but it doesn't feel to me like a train that is bound for success. Tell me true, do you seriously think it will be? I'm literally the only one defending TUO, after two dead eliminators defended TUO, and even TUO hasn't showed up to defend themselves. There should be enough elims still out there to defend TUO if they wanted to, and by your own theory it seems like they would want to. It feels like y'all who aren't evil are letting yourselves focus all on one thing.

I will apologize for opposing this only if it turns out I'm wrong 

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

With Mipha dead, Dannex's time is limited unless we have a Knight or two hanging around that is willing to protect them.  But if we don't then I think it's a good idea to make use of the confirmed village while we can.  To that end I ask that every Postman puts one random player in contact with Dannex so we can get some information gathered that Dannex could pass along to a trusted source.

I'm a little confused what kind of information you're fishing for. Not many people will have scan results, so it'd jsut be roleclaims? Everything else should be publicly available 

41 minutes ago, Dannex said:

How many Elims do we think there are? 5? 

26/4 is 6.5, so it should be 6 elims, with one of them being a Thug. 

Edit: Drake is confusing me, because I suspect TUO has been written off by the elims by now. I still believe he's ignoring the obvious in favour of paranoia, but that's his sword to die on. Keeps it interesting! 

Also, Dannex, I'd like to know if you any scan results. Perhaps we could get them shortly before the end of the Night turn? In case you die, we'll have them, but the elims won't be able to switch the NK fast enough to react to it kinda thing. And obviously still be cautious of outing anyone needlessly

Edited June 29, 2021 by Archer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Tani said:

Please vote Tani off if you have nothing else productive to do. I'm getting this game and the MR mixed up. If it will convince you to kill me, I'll even joke-claim elim. Or Zelda. Or Link. Or whatever role you want dead.

You can request a pinch hitter if you no longer wish to play this game. It looks like Xino is available.

16 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

 I am going to assume you would have passed it on if Zelda had scanned an eliminator.

There's no reason to assume Dannex is in contact with Zelda. That would require a postman to have guessed who Zelda is and been able to put her in a PM with Dannex, since neither of them can make PMs on their own.

[Alvron he/him]

49 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm a little confused what kind of information you're fishing for. Not many people will have scan results, so it'd jsut be roleclaims? Everything else should be publicly available 

I'm not fishing for any information.  I'm not in contact with Dannex or anyone for that matter.  But I am hoping to get what information that is out there gathered and hopefully safeguarded.

Zelda should've gotten off two alignment scans
Revali has the results from their two actions
Urbosa hopefully roleblocked two players by now and know they at least didn't submit the attacks
And any Sheikah also have information that could be useful

Right now, as far as I know, they have no one to confide in / thread reveal for them.  Gathering that information is important and as Dannex is the only ,all but confirmed, villager they are the logical choice for it to go to.

[Quivil she/her]

I forget, what do the Sheikah do? And Revali? EDIT Also Im too lazy to go find the rules and look it up arent you so proud of me.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Tani

[Ashbringer he/him]

Right now, I don’t think any scanners should reveal their intel to anyone, except if Zelda can to someone she confirmed is good. Or on the outside chance that Revali (target scanner) or Urbosa (roleblocker) catches what they know to be the Elim kill, and even then I’d recommend thinking very carefully about it.

We’re down a Mipha and a Knight, and Zelda’s purported identity is known to at least some individuals. Outing Link is not an option. Not even to Dannex.

Especially not to Dannex. No offense, but I’m a bit gambit-shy.

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Araris poked Ashbringer, fake claimed a joke role to get on Illwei's village reads list presumably, asked for a Kas PM, advocated for consolidation of votes and held his in reserve to vote on someone who seemed like a viable exe target, voted for Azmine, supported Illwei's read of TUO being TWTBAW, then said they were as confident as they'd ever been that TUO was village, switched from Azmine to TUO D1.

Azmine to TJ, btw.

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Basically, my reasons for thinking TJ is a better bet for the exe are:

• Their tone in the D1 discussion felt very different than usual imo
• It sorta stuck out to me that TJ said they always do a PM with Kas and Illwei, and IIRC only really asked for a PM with one of those players in this game
• Kinda feels like they were trying to downplay / devalue analysis of things Illwei had said but idk

I'm not as sure about this as I'd like to be, but I'm more sure about it than I am about TUO.

• How was my tone different?
• I did not say that I always PM with Kas and Illwei. I said I *only* PM with Kas and Illwei. Besides, the reason I asked for a PM with Kas was partially as a joke to annoy him, and partially because when me and Kas PM, we're always gamesolving, and when me and Illwei PM we're talking about the most random things with a little gamesolving sprinkled in between. And I believe I've already mentioned that Kas plays very rarely nowadays, so me preferring a PM with Kas in a limited PM isn't nearly as malicious as you're making it out to be. 
• I don't get this either. What was I trying to downplay or undervalue? And more importantly why would I be doing that as Illwei's teammate?

I was feeling a tiny bit better about you from posts in the last cycle, but this vote is very very weird. 

So I was looking at you as well, when I was re-reading Araris' posts from previous cycles and I found something interesting. 

Refer to this post from C1: 
Drake's read post has a total of 2 elim reads - Steel and Pyro.

Quote

1. The Young Pyromancer: Everything they've been saying kinda suggests that they are pretty engaged with the game, but I'm not seeing a lot of thread activity and I kinda doubt Pyro has a bunch of PMs, which kinda says "doc activity" to me but idk

Quote

Um ok Pyro @The Young Pyromancer im sorry but the gods of RNG hath chosen you, unless you can give me a good reason to vote for someone else. I may live to regret asking this but who do you think I should vote for? 

Note that at this point in time, Illwei is leading in votes, and Drake is the first player to make it 2-2. But besides the point, why would you choose to RNG a vote when you have 2 elim reads? And on top of that, your RNG chose one of your only two elim reads? How likely is that? I feel like RNG is a very easy reason you gave to protect Illwei's train from running even further. Drake. I'm not comfortable with everyone running away with TUO train.

Edit: @Archer and @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your thoughts, given you voted for Drake last cycle?

Edited June 29, 2021 by |TJ|

[Steeldancer he/him]

Alright I finally got around to looking at the thread, took some more notes, but there's something I want to address. This whole game, Drake has been suspicious of me for seemingly no reason. Voted on me first turn, and continues to express suspicion of me. Drake would you like to give some actual reasoning for why I'm an elim read to you?

[Archer he/him]

6 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Azmine to TJ, btw.

•  

Note that at this point in time, Illwei is leading in votes, and Drake is the first player to make it 2-2. But besides the point, why would you choose to RNG a vote when you have 2 elim reads? And on top of that, your RNG chose one of your only two elim reads? How likely is that? I feel like RNG is a very easy reason you gave to protect Illwei's train from running even further. Drake. I'm not comfortable with everyone running away with TUO train.

Edit: @Archer and @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your thoughts, given you voted for Drake last cycle?

Good correction. And good catch! I'd misremembered and thought the Pyro vote was in defense of TUO, not Illwei
I think the RNG is more suspicious than the Pyro vote. I was on the Pyro train too, but for Drake, in context, it looks like a way to subtly move on from a teammate's exe (TUO or Illwei, take your pick). I think he faked RNGing.

If I didn't know better, I'd swear you two were distancing though. After TUO flips elim, Drake is the obvious next choice given their defence of them today, so I'd rather take the bird in hand than risk what is see as like a 20% of failure? I think I'm 99% sure of TUO, 80% on Drake. Drake is avoiding the logical courses of action in favour of stretched reasoning, but he's doing it so blatantly that it almost gives me pause.

As far as I know, Drake has some Mighty Bananas, by the way. Yay, PM was useful for something. At this point, it's a good enough case that I suspect Link will take care of them tonight. I'd rather not split the vote and have the elims obviously hammer but manage to use the Night turns that buys them to kill our conf goods. 

Best elim team guess right now is TUO (defence by two elims), Drake (RNG, revealed my PM, defended elims), Tani (who I thought had a stats wiki, but I was mistaken. Also they seem to be engaged in a gambit right now), and probably one less active person to bring us to six. Purple gave me bad vibes for their vote on me; seemed kinda like the elim doc suggested it.