Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Oxblood Beagle]

Oxblood is a bloody busybody, and that doesn't seem like it will change. Sorry.

[Amber Vulture]

You know what would be even more frustrating? Being evil and dying because we thought you were someone else who was also evil. To answer your question, Flamingo, it would have been more valuable to have the reassurance that you weren't going to body hop, because an elim would have reacted pretty much the way you did - except having stalled until the end of the Night, they would have hopped bodies. Elims generally have an inflated sense of how in danger they are, so let's assume for a minute that the Flamingo exe is misguided. That also explains why Opal Lion didn't die, because they were leading the village the wrong way. 

I'm getting bad vibes from Tuatara. I think their failure to submit extra actions is on par with Weasel's gem hoarding. Both seem sus. 

Is Oxblood Beagle a bloodhound joke or did they just have another word for red 

[Azure Mouse]

All this gemstone analysis is making my brain hurt.  I hope you know what you're doing, because I certainly wouldn't be able to call you out if you made a mistake.  

I agree that we need to take a closer look at the chaos that happened last turn... The thing that stands out to me is Heron's voting behavior.

Spoiler

On 7/29/2021 at 2:02 AM, Mint Heron said:

[OOC: First off, here is a poorly formatted VC due to the restraints of the mobile text editor.

Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon

Rhino (1): Vulture

Vulture (1): Scorpion

Falcon (1): Rhino

Hyena (1): Lion

Second, why is that two of my suspicions are being voted on by someone else I suspect (Scorpion voting for Vulture and Falcon voting for Tuatara). Surely it’s not because some of them might actually be incorrect.

Is it strange of me to suspect Falcon for going for what I feel like is a poorly reasoned vote on someone I do actually suspect for other reasons? Yes, I agree that not voting is odd, but there have been countless villagers in previous games that have spent most of their games not voting. I do not think this fact alone makes one an elim, and to me it looks like an elim trying to find any reason to vote on someone. Whether or not Tuatara is an elim like I believe they are doesn’t negate the fact that the reasons given for the vote on Tuatara feel odd to me. For this reason, and the odd feelings their tone has given me in the past, I shall vote on Falcon. I am trying to avoid reacting negatively to creating ties in this game, because I know that it is still only roughly a quarter of the way through the cycle. There is plenty of time for the tie to be broken, whether by myself or someone else. Take this as a promise that I shall move my vote later in the cycle if I need to prevent a tie.

I’m not too upset about either of the current leading exe candidates. I am aware that my reasonings for them both being elims in my mind is…contradictory, at first glance, but I believe it works.

Anyway, here is a the new VC, as of my vote:

Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon

Falcon (2): Rhino, Heron

Rhino (1): Vulture

Vulture (1): Scorpion

Hyena (1): Lion

In addition, I shall go ahead and say that I am in possession of a gem from the village stash. I will leave whether or not I used it a secret, to prevent from too much information going into elim hands.]

 

Heron starts off by voting for Falcon. This is not too unusual, as they had previously expressed suspicion of Falcon. They also, however, choose Emerald over Tuatara, whom they have been suspicious of since day 1.

On 7/29/2021 at 9:54 PM, Mint Heron said:

[OOC: Mostly just posting this for later reference, since I'm about to lose access to my computer, and I would like to have a VC with the right spacing between lines. Here is the current VC:

Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Falcon (2): Rhino, Heron
Hyena (2): Lion, Flamingo
Rhino (1): Vulture
Vulture (1): Scorpion

I am pretty okay with where the votes are now. I might move my vote closer to rollover in order to truly secure the exe if necessary, but I think things are fine right now.]

Heron indicates here that they are fine with Tuatara's lynch, but their vote remains on Falcon.

On 7/30/2021 at 11:58 AM, Mint Heron said:

[OOC: It is currently a tie. I guess I am the one who has to decide who dies this turn. Of the three candidates for the exe, I only really truly suspect Tuatara. Though that is mostly because of early D1 things and a tone that just rubs me the wrong way still. I don't really suspect Beagle at all, and I personally think that the Beagle train is likely a reaction to Hyena getting a train on them out of nowhere. Convenient that Hyena shows up out of nowhere right as a train forms on him, yes? I think I am going to vote for....

Wow, okay, a lot just happened. Okay, after that all sorts itself out, my points still stand. I think I am going to vote for Hyena. Most of my suspicion for Tuatara has been driven by their first post in the game, and I really don't think they have done much to suspect since then. Though I am suspicious of their vote on Beagle. But I think, based solely on votes and timing of this turn, Hyena is our best bet.

Here is the new VC:

Hyena (4): Lion, Rhino, Vulture, Heron
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Heron (1): Flamingo
Vulture (1): Scorpion

This is nerve-wracking. I hope this is the right move.]

When it came down to a tie with Tuatara and others, Heron did not vote Tuatara- instead choosing to vote for a player they had not suspected at all before.

What is more, Heron mentioned in our PM how their suspicion of Tuatara was related to the fact that they had become much more quiet over the past few days & let suspicion slide off of them. This seems to contradict the opinion they give here. Overall, it seems like a elim attempting to avoid their teammate being lynched.

TL;DR Heron has been inconsistent in their votes and with opinions expressed in PMs. 

Fumesh huddled.

It was said that the storms were sent to cleanse the world of war. Sweep away the corpses, wash away the blood... make it so as nothing had ever happened.

But the storm had been powerless against the storm that raged in the hearts of these singers. You could see it in the way they glanced at each other, sharp enough to cut stone. The stormwall hadn't broken, not yet... but it would soon.

Fumesh almost wondered if there even were spies. The singers had done a well enough job killing each other in broad daylight- who's to say a few hadn't taken up settling their grievances in the darkness as well?

He petted his furry animal and fed it another crumb. It, at least, he could count on.

[Amber Vulture]

Good post, Mouse

Heron

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I kind of really don't like the switch but I've been sussing Heron the whole game pretty much so I'm not sure why. I'm really stuck on Flamingo being Malibu but there's multiple possibilities that work where that's not the case. Trying to tell myself to keep an open mind, really.

Hey @Cream Tuatara, did you send those two PMs? To who?

And did anyone get one of those PMs?

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Ugh. I don’t like Flamingo’s tone. Because it’s throwing off my confidence. I still think they’re likely Elim, but Mavset-im has to be our priority because of their unblockable kill.
Flamingo 

Is Heron really the most likely other choice? I’m switching for now, but planning to get back on and read more arguments tomorrow.

@Plum Rhinoceros, I got a PM from Cream. Edit: also contained Mouse and Falcon.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

3 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Ugh. I don’t like Flamingo’s tone. Because it’s throwing off my confidence. I still think they’re likely Elim, but Mavset-im has to be our priority because of their unblockable kill.
Flamingo 

Is Heron really the most likely other choice? I’m switching for now, but planning to get back on and read more arguments tomorrow.

@Plum Rhinoceros, I got a PM from Cream.

I don't think Heron is the other Mavset candidate... well, it's Flamingo, Tuatara, or one of [Beagle, Mouse, Heron]. Flamingo can prove themselves after today assuming they vote alone (the issue being if they're Mavset and we misexe, it's too late after today), Tuatara can prove themselves right now, and the three I mentioned I'm not entirely sure but that's the situation where Mavset snatched an Artform gem D1 for some reason. Those three I think are the three that could have it, they haven't proven a role thus far.

Who else was in the PM?

Continuing to not like how I'm one of the only Flamingo voters, hmm.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Amethyst Scorpion]

11 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Who else was in the PM?

I edited it in, but you were too fast: Falcon and Moose, both of whom have responded.

However, I think this was pointed out a time or two but has been largely overlooked (even by me), but if Mavset-im hasn’t body-hopped yet, they can still talk in PMs. Making all of this useless. Whose idea was it to track down Malibu this way? 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I edited it in, but you were too fast: Falcon and Moose, both of whom have responded.

However, I think this was pointed out a time or two but has been largely overlooked (even by me), but if Mavset-im hasn’t body-hopped yet, they can still talk in PMs. Making all of this useless. Whose idea was it to track down Malibu this way? 

Assuming you meant Mouse  

It was a good idea when we thought we had caught Flamingo Malibu and that they were going to hop :P. Since they apparently didn't it's not useful, but we can rinse and repeat next Night turn if we need to. It's a good and viable strategy. But we need to get an elim today first.

*** (Below I attempt to narrow the PoE. It doesn't go very well. See if you guys can do better)

The way I see it, there are three teams that could be the case. Or at least three ideas of teams. Here's a not very helpful breakdown of my thinking:

Option One: Malibu Flamingo

In this scenario, Flamingo is Mavset-im. Fairly straightforward and decently likely, in my opinion. I think their possible teammates (in no particular order) are Beagle, Mouse, Falcon, Weasel, Scorpion, with an outside chance of Heron and the slimmest of all chances possible of Vulture.

Option Two: Malibu Tuatara

In this scenario, Tuatara is Mavset and is lying about making two PMs- meaning one of the claimed PMs holds only teammates and doesn't actually exist. Interestingly, the claimed PM we have includes Scorpion, Falcon, and Mouse- all people who were in the last elim list and ones that fit here as well. In this case I think Heron is most definitely evil, and Beagle, the three in the PM, and Weasel fit as well. Basically my point here is that whether Tuatara or Flamingo is Malibu I don't think it changes anything whereas the team guesses is concerned, but I wouldn't put them as teammates with each other.

Option Three: Malibu Mouse/Beagle/Heron

I group these together because, as I already said, I kind of think it doesn't really matter. At this point we only have a certain pool of people that work, and this grouping really is pretty much completely useless cause I'm literally just removing myself, Vulture, Dragonfly and Lion, then saying that the elims are in the rest. Which like, yeah. True, thanks Rhino, didn't think about that. I know

TL;DR: I would be surprised if the elim team wasn't within [Beagle, Heron, Weasel, Scorpion, Flamingo, Tuatara, Falcon, Mouse] which is an absurdly big pool, but 5/8 I guess is the majority of those players. I think Flamingo only is evil if they are Mavset, and if that's the case Tuatara is likely clear. Similarly, Flamingo won't be evil if Tuatara's Mavset, but Tuatara could still be evil if say, Heron is. Really this whole post was me uselessly saying my thoughts but maybe there's something in here. 

I guess what I'm getting at is- if we come to a consensus where we can agree that <Player> is probably elim regardless of who else is, that's who we should exe. I tried to do that here but ended up putting everyone with everyone because I don't know how to do this kind of process of elimination and shrinking the PoE, but maybe someone else can do better.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

40 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

However, I think this was pointed out a time or two but has been largely overlooked (even by me), but if Mavset-im hasn’t body-hopped yet, they can still talk in PMs. Making all of this useless. Whose idea was it to track down Malibu this way? 

Malibu can't take forms, so Tuatara being able to make two PMs at once means they can't be Malibu. I can confirm getting a PM from Tuatara today that also includes Weasel and Heron, the last of which has not yet responded.

 

[Mint Heron]

Flamingo (2): Rhino, Tuatara
Heron (6): Lion, Flamingo, Mouse, Vulture, Scorpion
Scorpion (1): Heron

Well, that’s unfortunate. Can’t say I’m surprised. I figured this would come eventually, with how off my reads/voting have been this game. Or, well, sort of. Most of the suspects I’ve had this game are still alive. Two of them are voting for me, one on Flamingo, and Falcon still hasn’t voted yet. I just don’t know what to make of this. I think I’m going to leave my vote where it is, mostly just wanted to make a new VC to show everyone what’s up with the votes. Also, there’s only 5 votes on me if Flamingo isn’t in mediationform, but I don’t see why they wouldn’t be.

EDIT: I should also mention, I most likely won’t be on very much until shortly before rollover, or maybe 12-14 hours before rollover as well. Just depends.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Mint Heron

[Oxblood Beagle]

And here we are again. Heron. First Tuatara, then Hyena, now Scorpion? You never answered what had changed to shift you to Hyena when I asked in my mega-post (not that many people did respond to that, but still), and I don't remember you going after either Scorpion or Hyena, or at least with any force. So I would very much like to know what you're doing.

 

I need to make this longer. Sort of lost a post.

 

Jalnor was in shock. The mateform… they'd been the one that Jalnor had been set against. Neither had been killed, as neither had enough supporters to actually get either of them... either of them...

And now they lay dead on the ground all the same. Killed by the servants of Odium for not falling to the will of the singers. They hadn't wanted this. Nobody had, Jalnor thought. Yet it had happened all the same, and the why, the why... some even thought they had been a Fused.

What on Roshar was happening to them? Jalnor? These singers, these listeners, them all? 

[Opal Lion]

6 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

However, I think this was pointed out a time or two but has been largely overlooked (even by me), but if Mavset-im hasn’t body-hopped yet, they can still talk in PMs. Making all of this useless. Whose idea was it to track down Malibu this way? 

6 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

It was a good idea when we thought we had caught Flamingo Malibu and that they were going to hop :P. Since they apparently didn't it's not useful, but we can rinse and repeat next Night turn if we need to. It's a good and viable strategy. But we need to get an elim today first.

 

This, plus the fact that this is anyway near the point in the game where the Elims might just use the Malibu kill. We do have an unaccounted for mateform gemstone (which Weasel claimed) - but while it's unlikely that there's a hidden mateform no one sounded off on, it's good to confirm that there was no mateform bodysnatch. This lets us properly read the Hyena kill result as indicating that Hyena is Village and Hyena did not get a gem D1 due to numbers and how Steel rolled for mateform previously.

5 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Malibu can't take forms, so Tuatara being able to make two PMs at once means they can't be Malibu. I can confirm getting a PM from Tuatara today that also includes Weasel and Heron, the last of which has not yet responded.

So it depends on whether you think Flamingo is Village or not. If you do, then no matter how kayana the 'Malibu took an artform gemstone D1' path is, that becomes the most tempting option. It's possible that Tuatara took the artform gem D1 and is now lying to cover for Malibu, but it doesn't significantly matter to me because that still points out that our Malibu has to be hiding in the <Mouse, Heron, Beagle> triad.

And I feel like given the volatility in end-cycle voting last cycle, Beagle being Malibu is unlikely. Losing Malibu is not good for the Elim team - losing an unblockable kill is kayana, and there's nothing to stop Village trusts from stabilising after Malibu is gone, so the mere presence of Malibu is good for them. I can't imagine them being so chill about losing Malibu, of all roles, though weirder things have happened, so maybe low to moderate probability. Warform Elim is possible, but I really don't inherently see self-pres as suspicious. Forcing a tie to self-pres is a bold decision, but when I tracked the votes, Beagle's shift wouldn't cause a tie, just kill Hyena and save himself. This changes if Heron is Evil. 

Anyway, it's been a busy OT weekend. I hope to get some time to redo the vote analysis by building in Hyena's and Dingo's alignments but we'll see if I'm granted that.

Want to note that @Onyx Flamingo voted Heron for that exact same reasoning D4.

My one issue with the analysis is that OG Mouse and Heron both voted Tuatara on D1:

I'm just going to shamelessly copy my post from D4:

"It's hard to be sure but we had a Swan-Dingo-Tuatara window at one juncture. Ross was the key swing, but Ross is Village.

Specifically:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (1): Rhino
Swan (2): Scorpion, Lion

These things happen: Swan goes onto Dingo, so we get:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (2): Rhino, Swan
Swan (2): Scorpion, Lion

In response, Flamingo goes after Swan for voting alongside their key suspicion:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (2): Rhino, Swan
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

And then Dragonfly goes on Dingo:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (3): Rhino, Swan, Dragonfly
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

So we have a 4-3-3 window where Tuatara is in the lead. I think the question is whether the other two trains were started to see what sticks and what saves Tuatara, but I find that a bit questionable because Swan was Village and I have high credence that Dragonfly is Village.

And Ross, a known Villager, is the key vote, turning the Swan train into the final train:

Quote

Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron, Mouse
Dingo (3): Rhino, Swan, Dragonfly
Swan (4): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo, Ross

That's a decent amount of overt Villager activity, based off my existing credences (cf. Ross, Dragonfly, Swan, I exclude myself only because I know, GM PM issues.) We already knew there were scattered Elims, or at least a glance at the greens suggest Elims were scattered, but I think really lends to the sense the Elims either weren't especially worried, or overtly wrangling. Possible as well that high Village activity might have meant they didn't need to move in earnest. I don't know. Something to keep in mind as I move to the D2 data I suppose.

So, one key question: who didn't vote that cycle?

Quote

Tuatara, Weasel, Ostrich, Crocodile, and Beagle.

Won't rule out the possibility there is a crouching Elim, but spread out definitely seems right."

We now know the Dingo train was a Village train, Swan was Village, and the general consensus is high credence that Swan and Dragonfly are Elim, so if we are narrowing down for Elim activity:

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

I want to point out several things. Dingo was a leading train at one point and was a Village train. The Swan train was a Village train. As much as it is a tempting prospect, the window for a Tuatara LAFO has long come and gone but if the argument relies on Heron/Tuatara being E/E, it's weird that Heron was so chill with Tuatara being the leading train, requiring Ross to break the tie and go after Swan instead.

I'm still not fond of the very self-conscious and defensive tone of Heron's post so my vote is remaining there for now.

But suppose, for the sake of argument, that Heron is Elim. My question is: where are the Elims D1?

Day One:

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

I don't think this is of necessity correct; this just reflects my current distribution of credences. Flamingo and Tuatara are probably the most negotiable. I don't colour myself out of courtesy. That leaves me with a pool of the above and:

Quote

Tuatara, Weasel, Ostrich, Crocodile, and Beagle.

<Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Heron, Mouse, Weasel, Beagle>

Well, let's crudely go on to the next few Days I suppose:

Day Two:

Quote

Scorp (0): Lion<1>, Heron<1>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Vulture<2>, Ross<2>, Flamingo<2>
Dingo (0): Rhino<1>, Flamingo<1>
Rhino (0): Dingo<1>
Lion (0): Vulture<1>, Lion<2>
Mouse (0): Ross<1>
Ross (3): Rhino<2>, Lion<3>, Dragonfly, Heron<3>
Vulture (0): Heron<2>
Dragonfly (1): Scorp
Tuatara (2): Heron<4>, Ross<3>
Beagle (1): Beagle

Tuatara comes up as an alternative, though Heron-driven. Movement is between Penguin and Ross, and we now know both trains are v/v. Strictly from the perspective of the votes, Heron comes off poorly as pulling off of a bad lynch. Stand by early!Lion's assessment of this.

Interestingly, this points to two things IMO: Heron's suspicions are static. This isn't an Elim-only thing but Villagers trying to solve the game will often fluctuate more in who they suspect. I myself went from Flamingo Delenda Est to "I think Flamingo's Village though" just from Night Four to Day Five. I chilled on the Scorpion suspicion but they're climbing my radar again. Second, this is yet another cycle in which we see Heron go on Ross, get @ about why they haven't voted their actual suspicions, and then immediately drop off Ross and go right back to Tuatara. 

Non-voters:

Quote

Mouse (inactive), Hyena, Tuatara, Falcon, Weasel, Ostrich

It's a v/v train so once again, our peripherals look bad. Unfortunately, we just don't get that much more out of this.

Day Three:

Quote

Falcon (0): Lion<1>, Rhino<3>
Penguin (6): Flamingo, Rhino<2>, Scorp, Lion<3>, Vulture<2>, Rhino<4>, Beagle
Rhino (0): Falcon<1>
Heron (1): Dragonfly, Vulture<1>
Beagle (0): Lion<2>
Vulture (3): Heron, Penguin, Falcon<2>
Flamingo (0): Rhino<1>

Feel like we almost certainly have an Elim on this one due to size, but that being said. Let's look at non-voters first:

Quote

Mouse (inactive), Tuatara, Dingo, Hyena, Weasel, Ostrich

We now know we had three inactive/non-voting Villagers (at least.) Ouch. Inactivity or not, Beagle's voting patterns make them difficult to read so they're still not getting a Village read from me at this point.

Day Four:

Quote

Beagle (4): Tuatara, Lion<3>, Vulture<2>, Hyena, Dragonfly<1>, Vulture<4>, Lion<5>
Hyena (4): Lion<2>, Flamingo<1>, Rhino<2>, Lion<4>, Vulture<3>, Heron<2>, Beagle<2>, Dragonfly<2>
Vulture (1): Scorpion
Heron (1): Flamingo<2>
Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle<1>
Rhino (0): Lion<1>, Vulture<1>
Falcon (0): Rhino<1>, Heron<1>

Non-voters:

Quote

Weasel

If Heron is Evil, I'd relook at Mouse and Falcon again. Possible for contagion of suspicions among teammates. Mouse is in a sweet spot of contributing but static voting, so I'm not going to give them too strong a Village read at this juncture. Falcon also doesn't look good from the static voting perspective, but funny enough, I actually read them a bit more Village for it. It's so "IDEC" low-effort that I feel an Elim would actually want to appear like they're trying harder.

...Oh, bother. I'm going to have to do a new reads list at some point, aren't I?

Beagle voting on Tuatara for not trying to do much is just a bit rich, I gotta say. Am I basically live-commenting as I try to fix this up? Apparently yes.

Heron says they're fine with Tuatara in the lead and might move closer to rollover to secure the lynch. Rhino disagrees. Fire ensues.

Tuatara...actually Tuatara's post on Beagle reads kind of retaliatory but also kind of low-effort, but not blatantly low-effort, and the tone is off to me. Thought I'd flag that. Tuatara sounds like they're shopping around for suspicions and eventually ends up on the two people who have aggroed them but not Falcon.

And Lion immediately has never found a train he dislikes, or is on a secret mission to try to vote every player in the game at least once because he jumps right along onto Beagle. Sadge.

...And here we come to the Confusionstorm, the Evervote where it is rumoured that Vulture, Lion, and Dragonfly continue to vote in hell to this very day.

Lion starts screaming. I feel you mate, I really do.

Genuine question for those who suspect Beagle as Beagle's a light Elim/null minus for me at most. Beagle hasn't claimed but they're reading Evil Ash to me but I only played Evil Ash once and don't know his meta. Is this what you all are picking up on that I'm not?

[Plum Rhinoceros]

2 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Genuine question for those who suspect Beagle as Beagle's a light Elim/null minus for me at most. Beagle hasn't claimed but they're reading Evil Ash to me but I only played Evil Ash once and don't know his meta. Is this what you all are picking up on that I'm not?

I've just been reading Beagle as Ash in general since D1- and I can never read Ash in the first place, so...

But they voted Heron. Like. Is that a scare tactic? A bussing tactic? Are we just wrong?

Beagle

[Amber Vulture]

10 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I tried to do that here but ended up putting everyone with everyone because I don't know how to do this kind of process of elimination and shrinking the PoE, but maybe someone else can do better.

Rhino definitely isn't Ash

The amount of votes on Heron makes me uncomfortable. It's too easy. But I'm not going to move just because of that. 

It's 8v;5e now ya. Mix today for 7v;5e, NK brings 6v;5e. At that point, we must be right or lose. I'm thinking of Flamingo's proof of role doesnt happen, they'll claim RB. So that's not even a slam dunk. 

Lion mentioned earlier seeing Heron directing some pressure at Flamingo. At this point, I'm just assuming we're wrong about them being evil. Unfortunately, Tuatara picked a 2nd PM group of possibly all elims, as others have said. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that we may have bagged an elim D1 and I didn't believe it. Regardless of the field, I'm still feeling a Heron exe. Then I'm hoping for a hop because that's basically a guaranteed free elim kill for us at the cost of a Warform. 

[Opal Lion]

6 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Lion mentioned earlier seeing Heron directing some pressure at Flamingo. At this point, I'm just assuming we're wrong about them being evil. Unfortunately, Tuatara picked a 2nd PM group of possibly all elims, as others have said. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that we may have bagged an elim D1 and I didn't believe it. Regardless of the field, I'm still feeling a Heron exe. Then I'm hoping for a hop because that's basically a guaranteed free elim kill for us at the cost of a Warform. 

Keep talking to your buddies.

PM buddies don't let PM buddies get bodystolen.

Stay in groups kids, it's too dangerous to go it alone!

[Plum Rhinoceros]

5 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

It's 8v;5e now ya. Mix today for 7v;5e, NK brings 6v;5e. At that point, we must be right or lose. I'm thinking of Flamingo's proof of role doesnt happen, they'll claim RB. So that's not even a slam dunk. 

It's 7:5, actually. Today is exlo.

[Opal Lion]

12 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

It's 7:5, actually. Today is exlo.

That's actually why I'm worried about Beagle. It's not a write-off: failed lynches that are closely-contested are often still informative but if we go for the potential warform Elim and fail, we're in trouble: 7/5 -> 6/5 -> only to find out welp, we were wrong the day before, game over. It's still a game over, it's just that we maybe bought ourselves one more Day to get it right, I suppose, but we won't have a flip to bank on, and if the Elim team goes low info kill, just hitting me or you or Dragonfly would guarantee a death and not give us that much more info than we really have to go on. If Flamingo is Village, that buys us a bit more space because of voting firepower unless Flamingo is offed at 6/5.

To be fair, I guess Heron is a gamble too but given Heron was telling you and me they had a role that day, and presumably wanted to soft warform/scholarform, hell knows.

@Amber Vulture Scorpion I think - I went back through the votes and noticed Heron nudged Scorpion D2. That stuck out a bit to me as a vote flexibility issue which isn't uniquely Village but tends to be more Elim-leaning if we're on D5 and the best you can do is still Tuatara (well, was Tuatara) and Scorpion.

 

Edited to add: Not to put too much pressure on us but the ideal scenario has us lynching Malibu today. And candy and teddy bears for everyone!

 

The moderately realistic ideal scenario has us lynching any Elim today, as long as they're dead.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

My issue with Heron is that no one has an issue with Heron :P.

I looked at the D4 end count again though, and boy does nothing make sense.

If Beagle is elim, why weren't there more elims on Hyena? Heron and Beagle themselves are the only real candidates. Is it because the train was last-minute, or was it v/v?

If it was v/v, why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? If it was v/e why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? Why is >50% of our PoE voting on other players in our PoE?

Edited August 1, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Amber Vulture]

24 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

It's 7:5, actually. Today is exlo.

Oh snap. I was about to make a post suggesting a switch to Weasel because they're a gem hoarder and two(?) Nights ago they PMed me with 15 minutes to go before rollover just to say hi and that felt like an elim saving their action until they'd decided who was submitting the NK /if they needed to bodyhop. 

12 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

That's actually why I'm worried about Beagle. It's not a write-off: failed lynches that are closely-contested are often still informative but if we go for the potential warform Elim and fail, we're in trouble: 7/5 -> 6/5 -> only to find out welp, we were wrong the day before, game over. It's still a game over, it's just that we maybe bought ourselves one more Day to get it right, I suppose, but we won't have a flip to bank on, and if the Elim team goes low info kill, just hitting me or you or Dragonfly would guarantee a death and not give us that much more info than we really have to go on. If Flamingo is Village, that buys us a bit more space because of voting firepower unless Flamingo is offed at 6/5.

To be fair, I guess Heron is a gamble too but given Heron was telling you and me they had a role that day, and presumably wanted to soft warform/scholarform, hell knows.

@Amber Vulture Scorpion I think - I went back through the votes and noticed Heron nudged Scorpion D2. That stuck out a bit to me as a vote flexibility issue which isn't uniquely Village but tends to be more Elim-leaning if we're on D5 and the best you can do is still Tuatara (well, was Tuatara) and Scorpion.

 

Edited to add: Not to put too much pressure on us but the ideal scenario has us lynching Malibu today. And candy and teddy bears for everyone!

 

The moderately realistic ideal scenario has us lynching any Elim today, as long as they're dead.

I think if feel most comfortable doing Heron > Mouse > Weasel. If they bodyhop, with the amount of PMs we have, I'm confident we'll catch them. And it's a high confidence exe because they're unable to PM, and that's hard proof. So I'm not too worried about that. 

Interesting on Scorp. Maybe they are good, as Rhino has been suggesting. Bringing my Village to Vulture, Lion, Rhino, Dragonfly, Scorpion, Flamingo, +1. Team Evil being Heron, Mouse, Weasel,+2.

The remainder pool being Beagle, Tuatara, Falcon. Beagle seems the evilest of the bunch, then it's a toss up between the last two. 

I actually feel really good about those groups, so wooooo let's go Heron hunting. 

2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

My issue with Heron is that no one has an issue with Heron :P.

I looked at the D4 end count again though, and boy does nothing make sense.

If Beagle is elim, why weren't there more elims on Hyena? Heron and Beagle themselves are the only real candidates. Is it because the train was last-minute, or was it v/v?

If it was v/v, why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? If it was v/e why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? Why is >50% of our PoE voting on other players in our PoE?

Did Weasel or Mouse even vote that Day. I can't remember, but could be some inactivity hurting them. Beagle and Heron certainly came in to assert their favoured position at the end, as shown by the tie. 

[Opal Lion]

29 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

My issue with Heron is that no one has an issue with Heron :P.

1. You do

2. We barely hit the 50% cycle mark bro.

3. I'm beginning to think that if you have high credences in the noisier players being Village, what other options do a peripheral/passive Elim team have? They could create a countertrain but that would reveal them instantly. The best play under those circumstances would be to seed multiple counterwagons and hope one takes off. You always want a high preponderance of Villagers on your countertrain or enough, though this late, it may not matter as much.

Not saying this makes Heron automatically Elim but I wonder if given how this Elim team has been playing - what options do they really have?

The largely consensus non-strong Village-read pool is:

<Scorpion, Falcon, Mouse, Tuatara, Heron, Beagle, Weasel, Flamingo>

Who among them could create an alternate train or argue strongly for Heron without appearing odd or to be behaving uncharacteristically?

The strength of passive or under-the-radar play is that it's frithing hard to locate you. The problem is it gives you fewer options to control and redirect Village attention once found.

14 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

I think if feel most comfortable doing Heron > Mouse > Weasel. If they bodyhop, with the amount of PMs we have, I'm confident we'll catch them. And it's a high confidence exe because they're unable to PM, and that's hard proof. So I'm not too worried about that. 

You mentioned this earlier and I'm noticing vagueness about the Malibu kill. Malibu bodyhop is a free Elim kill only if we find them. Malibu bodyhop reduces Village count by 1 but keeps the Elim count constant. Of course we'd grinch them the next day anyway so I suspect they'll either do the quiet player thing, or simply leave Malibu bodyhop for a potential game-ender.

14 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Did Weasel or Mouse even vote that Day. I can't remember, but could be some inactivity hurting them. Beagle and Heron certainly came in to assert their favoured position at the end, as shown by the tie. 

Mouse was first on Tuatara, never moved. Weasel didn't vote.

Edited to add:

29 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

If Beagle is elim, why weren't there more elims on Hyena? Heron and Beagle themselves are the only real candidates. Is it because the train was last-minute, or was it v/v?

If it was v/v, why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? If it was v/e why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere? Why is >50% of our PoE voting on other players in our PoE?

This has been what I've been asking all this while. If Heron and Beagle are both Evil, why is it that the main voteswingers were Vulture, myself, and Dragonfly? Why did the volatility of the cycle not draw more Elims to the votes? The only answer I can think of is that Beagle was warform and they were fine with letting Beagle absorb a hit if need be, especially with the votes that close.

Quote

If it was v/v, why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere?

To me, that's expected behaviour. Why implicate yourself when you can let the Village cut each other's throats? I generally do not expect Elims to be packing the v/v trains because they have no stake in doing so. One lynch is as good as another if it isn't them.

Quote

If it was v/e why is >50% our PoE voting elsewhere?

This is the one that doesn't make sense to me and I've been asking about.

Quote

Why is >50% of our PoE voting on other players in our PoE?

Distancing is a thing, isn't it? Devo, Araris, Eiwlil, Maili, Fifth and STINK extreme-bussed each other in LG74. We're not facing that team but I could see distancing and vote-splitting as a viable strategy for Elims to hide. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

1. You do

True, but that's reactive and has nothing to do with Heron themselves.

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

2. We barely hit the 50% cycle mark bro.

Yeahhh I know but I get nervous anyway...

Would the elims hammer today? I could see the elims hammering today. That's worrisome.

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

3. I'm beginning to think that if you have high credences in the noisier players being Village, what other options do a peripheral/passive Elim team have? They could create a countertrain but that would reveal them instantly. The best play under those circumstances would be to seed multiple counterwagons and hope one takes off. You always want a high preponderance of Villagers on your countertrain or enough, though this late, it may not matter as much.

Mmm okay. Fair.

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

The only answer I can think of is that Beagle was warform and they were fine with letting Beagle absorb a hit if need be, especially with the votes that close.

Ah. Beagle is a Warform candidate, huh. Beagle. Lol watch me just abstain today because I have no storming idea :P.

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

Distancing is a thing, isn't it? Devo, Araris, Eiwlil, Maili, Fifth and STINK extreme-bussed each other in LG74. We're not facing that team but I could see distancing and vote-splitting as a viable strategy for Elims to hide. 

It just seems sort of pointless to me. I mean, I guess if we're ripping each other apart the only people they can vote without jumping onto a village train is themselves.

But I also reference D1 Tuatara here- voted on by Falcon, Heron, and Mouse. That's something to consider, I think.

[Opal Lion]

49 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Would the elims hammer today? I could see the elims hammering today. That's worrisome.

I'd say I intend to be on at rollover to stop a possible hammer but I'm just one person. You're also talking to the guy who participated in the three-way mess at the end of D4. Be afraid. Be very afraid. For the Elims to hammer, they'd almost certainly need one person on the Heron wagon, too. And if they have the other mediationform gem or if their scholar just popped one out...ngh.

49 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Ah. Beagle is a Warform candidate, huh. Beagle. Lol watch me just abstain today because I have no storming idea :P.

1. To be fair, so is Heron. I feel the circumstances point at Village Beagle or Evil Warform Beagle, I just can't decide which, but strictly-speaking, nothing stops Heron from being warform either so I guess what I'm saying is just go with your best shot

2. We need to get the correct answer today, and not answering the question is not giving us the correct answer either >>

49 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

It just seems sort of pointless to me. I mean, I guess if we're ripping each other apart the only people they can vote without jumping onto a village train is themselves.

Yeah. But also it's a good way of provoking indecision. God knows while my suspicion of Scorpion has climbed up again, if you ask me between Weasel and Scorpion, it's just a shrug from me.

49 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

But I also reference D1 Tuatara here- voted on by Falcon, Heron, and Mouse. That's something to consider, I think.

Yeah. That's the one that really nags at me because that would be extreme bussing. Not E/E/E/E seems to be the right answer but maybe not more than two Es in that group I guess. Maybe Mouse/Tuatara not E/E would be the better way to put it. It's twice Mouse has had no issues with a train going off on Tuatara. But the one thing that keeps striking me about Tuatara is that Ross was the decisive voteswing that lynch. Of course, maybe Ross made it so the Elims didn't need to intervene and they would've had to if not for Ross but here let me add some text so my shrug emoji isn't handless ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Edited to add:

2 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

It's 8v;5e now ya. Mix today for 7v;5e, NK brings 6v;5e. At that point, we must be right or lose. I'm thinking of Flamingo's proof of role doesnt happen, they'll claim RB. So that's not even a slam dunk. 

Doesn't work that way. Checked with Steel - Mediationform's double vote is a passive, and votes are not actions anyway so it can't be roleblocked. Mediationform doesn't make someone Village but it does make someone not Malibu. But since a significant amount of heat Flamingo attracted was for being the lead Malibu candidate, not being Malibu should drop Flamingo back in reads, more trust if Heron (current train as of time of typing anyway) flips Evil.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Opal Lion
justification

[Azure Mouse]

WPGXVXVIPRCFEGOO
ESZRUGIINUTQTKKT

TATYIMSWLALCUXUZ
CVPODJTYWSGTGSGV

 

NZXVFIFPNLDAOWYX
EDMMCQIAESRBTFUD

If I had been Mouse C1, perhaps I would have grabbed artform.  

[Cream Tuatara]

56 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

WPGXVXVIPRCFEGOO
ESZRUGIINUTQTKKT

TATYIMSWLALCUXUZ
CVPODJTYWSGTGSGV

 

 

NZXVFIFPNLDAOWYX
EDMMCQIAESRBTFUD

If I had been Mouse C1, perhaps I would have grabbed artform.  

Hey, codes are forbidden outside of anonymous message roles.