alder24

27 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Syl was attracted to Kaladin. If it only just transitioned, it might still be in that primal state where it's not as aware yet.

That's true, this is a possible and likely explanation. However, I wouldn't call Kaladin's emotion's simple and there was also a voice (the Wind?) involved in Syl's transition. But on the other hand maybe Navani's emotions were vastly deeper at that moment because they were related to a great revelation about a fundamental part of her identity. Calling them simple would be a misservice.

29 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

RPG, picture was shared in this Kickstarter update.

Thanks, missed that.

30 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Only a little bit (WoR 6):

  Reveal hidden contents

In her quarters, Pattern moved up the wall beside her, watching without eyes as she searched for a passage she remembered, which mentioned spren that spoke. Not just windspren and riverspren, which would mimic people and make playful comments. Those were a step up from ordinary spren, but there was yet another level of spren, one rarely seen. Spren like Pattern, who had real conversations with people.

It doesn't sound like they can do full conversations.

That's why it would be so weird - they can't have a logical conversation, they just say random words or mimic each other. They still talk to each other, so it's a conversation, but it just makes no sense at all, so Wyndle can compare Lift's nonsense to this situation. 

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Right, and I’m saying there’s options where it was only the imprisonment of Mishram that damaged things and caused the tower to fail. The Sibling didn’t say “yeah I was having problems with my Light for a while”, they said that they had their Light and then lost it the exact same day Mishram was bound.

What is the timeline in your opinion? I think you believe that Radiants started to record some messages when the Tower was still fully functional and Sibling was engaged, Mishram was imprisoned, the Tower started failing, the Sibling withdrew, they recorded more gems and left the Tower, then the Recreance happened? Is that correct? As I said, I believe all gems were recorded before Mishram's capture and the gemstone archive makes even more sense if you sort it by drawers - the very first records talk about the Sibling's withdrawal and their fabrials failing, the very last are about plans to put BAM in a gemstone. What records speak to you as evidently recorded post-Misham?

It didn't have to be a problem with Light, it could have been some Connection problem, Honor's changing, some deeper Spiritual problem with the Sibling, maybe an Unmade influence - we don't know what it was, but it didn't have to be just that they weren't able to produce Towerlight.

18 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

There’s also other ways that a bond can break without the Oaths breaking and leaving a deadeye.

But neither knights nor their spren knew Deadeyes would be created. Maya did expect pain, but not death. They would have no reasons to do it any other way - and if their bond was at the 5th Ideal, it can't be broken without killing the spren (Notum's words).

Melishi dying in the process of binding is possible, but based on the Thrill's binding I don't really see what could cause his death. 

31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Or he could have just left the tower (to go bind Mishram or to exile) and let the bond naturally fade.

I don't think the bond fades and gets broken, it would be weaker, a Bondsmith would lose their powers, but it would never be broken just because Melishi/Navani left the Tower for too long. 

34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

(Also the Sibling’s a they, iirc.)

Sorry, I know, my mistake. 

On 9/24/2024 at 1:10 PM, The Stick said:

I would say that they have to abandon Narak, but in doing so use anti-Stormlight on that Oathgate spren to cover their backs.

35 minutes ago, Corgen said:

You can kill the Oathgate spren in Azimir with Anti-Voidlight, preventing them from transporting the army.

How about we find a way to stop them that doesn't involve killing spren? Most spren still can't forgive humans for killing their kind during Recreance, if Radiants now start doing this just for minor strategic advantages then all spren will turn away from them and humanity will be left with no Surgebinders. Winning one battle is not worth losing the entire war.

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Mishram's actions and binding seems to be what the Sibling themself thinks is the issue, in RoW 49. They say they lost Honor's tone when BAM was bound, and that Honor could have helped but was too mad (and soon after too dead) to do so. Not before.

Yes, the imprisonment of Mishram caused the Tower to shut down completely, but this happened after the Sibling broke her bond with Melishi and after Radiants noted that the Sibling behaved weirdly and some systems had stopped working. We don't know what caused the Tower to fail before Mishram was imprisoned and that's what I was talking about. The bond with Melishi had to be broken before Mishram was imprisoned, otherwise the Sibling would have been still able to produce her light and would have been Deadeyed by the act of breaking the bond. 

14 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

But I imagine we'll find out in Wind and Truth.

Agreed, there are still way too many uncertainties around the Recreance and binding of Mishram and it seems like WaT will be heavily focused on this. I'm a bit sad that Shallan didn't press Kalak to reveal the full truth about Recreance (in epigraphs he said he knows the truth) because now Kalak is out of their reach. 

14 hours ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

The description matches how mistspren look:

You have a point, their description does look similar, so maybe they are Mistspren. But why would a Mistspren be attracted to her at that moment? She was overjoyed due to her acknowledging her self-worth and becoming a Radiant, which seems like a Lightweaver/Elsecaller thing to me, not Truthwatcher. Yes, the Truthwatcher's bits were still there, the excitement for science and future discoveries, but I don't think it was a dominant feeling. And that would be the first time when a True Spren was attracted to simple emotions - which is weird on its own. Maybe the awakening of the Sibling made them act like this, but I still think we can't say for sure a Keenspren is a Radiant spren, although it seems far more likely to me. 

Where is that image from? I don't recognize it from this fragment.

14 hours ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

They also have conversations, which doesn't make sense if they aren't sapient spren:

Another good point, but I have to say that Windspren sometimes talks. So maybe that's why Wyndle referred to Keenspren as he heard non-sapient spren talking to each other and yet Lift still made a weird conversation than Keenspren.

And that made me think - what if their similarity to Mistspren and potential ability to talk is an indication that they are a platespren of Truthwacthers? Windspren are almost unrecognizable from Honorspren, they can look exactly the same, they can talk and even use Adhesion, so why can't other spren have a similar relation with their platespren? Rarity wouldn’t prevent them from being a Keenspren - Logicspren are very rare in the east, yet they’re Elsecaller’s platespren.

Hello, welcome to the Shard.

4 hours ago, Lenth said:

Mishram Connected to the singers and provided them with forms of power, and assumedly also allowed the Fused to be reborn

Not at all. Fused were still trapped on Braize when Mishram found a way to grant forms of power to Singers and started the False Desolation without Fused and Voidspren. Fused can reborn today with Mishram being still trapped. Mishram isn't related to Fused in that way.

4 hours ago, Lenth said:

So, my thought is, does Kelsier want Mishram so she can Connect to him and make him a Fused? He could then be reborn in a singer body and have access to Investiture. If he gets his hand on some lerasium, he could even be Mistborn again.

I think that's outside of Mishram's power, or rather Odium wouldn't allow her to make new Fused. We have no idea if Mishram can create a Cognitive Shadow, which Fused is, but she can grant forms of power. So yes, Kelsier might want to have Mishram to grant him some powers (which doesn't make you a Fused), maybe even Allomancy if she plays properly with Connections. 

And Kelsier would not want to become a Fused - they are bound to Odium, filled with his investiture and trapped on Roshar. None of this is attractive at all. He already is a kind of Fused, just without a stable body. Fused are Cognitive Shadows, just like Kelsier is.

4 hours ago, Lenth said:

Are there any other theories about why the Ghostbloods want Mishram so much?

A few, off the top of my head: 

1. Use Mishram's Connection manipulation powers to unkey Stormlight so it can be moved out of Roshar.
2. Use Mishram's Connection manipulation powers to give forms of power to Ghostbloods.
3. Use Mishram's Connection manipulation powers to awaken Preservation's fragment in every Scadrian and make everyone a Metalborn.
4. Use Mishram's Connection manipulation powers to allow Kelsier to leave Scadrial.
5. Generate Voidlight.

4 hours ago, Atlas333 said:

I'm willing to bet that Sibling platespren will be keenspren, given that they've so far only shown up around Navani after her bond. 

One spren that Navani has never before seen in her life? A spren which name she knew meaning it's a known type of spren spotted by other people on Roshar? And that spren is the Sibling's platespren? I'm not really buying this. There are some spren which are very rare, like Gloomspren seen by Kaladin. OB ch 5:

Quote

“Wow,” Syl said. “Gloomspren.”
Kaladin looked up and noted an unusual spren whipping about. Long, grey, like a tattered streamer of cloth in the wind. It wound around him, fluttering. He’d seen its like only once or twice before.
“Why are they so rare?” Kaladin asked. “People feel gloomy all the time.”
“Who knows?” Syl said. “Some spren are common. Some are uncommon.”

59 minutes ago, Kesamijr said:

I think Keenspren are Radiant spren?

Probably just a soon to be radiant announcing themselves in that case.

i can’t strike through here idk why. But this is wrong

On the wiki keenspren are listed as Radiant spren, but we know all the radiant spren?

We know all 10 types of Radiant spren and Keenspren is not one of them. 

The WoB on which wiki is based said only that Keenspren is a nickname but Brandon neither confirmed nor denied if they are Radiant spren. I'm pretty sure with its appearance in recent WaT chapter we can safely say it's just an emotion spren and the WoB is outdated or there is just another name for Keenspren. 

1 hour ago, Kesamijr said:

or e) the Nightwatcher isn’t the 3rd bondsmith spren it’s like BAM or something? Maybe the nightwatcher has been confirmed but there’s a weird overlap here but nowhere else based on how we’re theorizing right now.

Nightwatcher was confirmed by the Stormfather to be a Bondsmith spren.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Then why did the Sibling withdraw? The three main things thag were happening at that time were BAM being being bound, the Recreance, and Honor fully dying - in that order. If all the gems are pre-Binding, then the Sibling would have to be withdrawing for some other reason.

OB ch 67, 68 and 70 epigraphs:

Quote

"This generation has had only one Bondsmith, and some blame the divisions among us upon this fact. The true problem is far deeper. I believe that Honor himself is changing."

"My research into the cognitive reflections of the spren at the tower has been deeply illustrative. Some thought that the Sibling had withdrawn from men by intent- but I find counter to that theory."

"Something is happening to the Sibling. I agree this is true, but the division among the Knights Radiant is not to blame. Our perceived worthiness is a separate issue."

Honor was already in the process of dying (it was a protracted event)  and he changed in some way (he was also raving about Dawnshards at the same time). Something was happening to the Sibling, something that the Sibling might not even have any control over, which others perceived as the Sibling withdrawing. I wouldn't be surprised if Honor's death throes affected the Sibling. 

It's also possible that whatever Mishram did to Connect herself to every Singer, affected the Sibling as well. After all, if her imprisonment wounded everyone who belonged to Roshar, the very act of forging that Connection might have caused the Sibling to behave weirdly. However this is highly speculative. 

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I’m pretty sure what you need is a strong Connection to the Unmade - which non-Bondsmiths can make over time, but Bondsmiths can much more easily produce. Plus the archive specifically calls out they need Melishi.

Yes, Connection can be forged, but that doesn't give you understanding. Read again the chapter in which Dalinar captured the Thrill (OB 120) - it's because Dalinar understood it on the deepest level possible that he was able to open himself to it and embrace it. A forged Connection won't provide you this kind of understanding. 

Yes, the gemstone said they need Melishi, but this can also mean that Melishi was the only one who understood Mishram like Dalinar understood Nergaoul.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Ah, fair. Misremembered that one. But I still do think the timing is mixed up.

I don't really see any evidence for this. It seems to me like the decision was made to abandon the Tower and Radiants were allowed to make a time capsule. During Recreance the Sibling was unbonded and abandoned, the Oathgates were already closed, nobody would be allowed to enter the Tower to record anything shortly before.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I highly doubt that’s a hard and fast rule, otherwise Ivory would have called out Pattern to Jasnah in WoK / Pattern called out Syl to Shallan in WoR (or as a deeper cut, known Syl had survived the Recreance). The Sibling’s more aware of what goes on in their tower.

The situation between the Sibling and Ivory/Pattern/Syl was a bit different. The Sibling was looking at the potential candidates for a bond, while others were already bonded and wouldn't be looking at others deeply enough to notice their bonds.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

If they’d really known how, I’d imagine they’d also really known why as well. The whole “we chose” thing seemed a surprise to everyone involved.

But they didn't know how. They just knew the Sibling broke their bond before the Recreance, but they didn't know why they made such a decision and how they knew to do that. 

1 minute ago, DrPhysics said:

Since it depends on speed squared, it's also true that the slower you go the weaker it is. 

It would take hours for air drag to slow him down to what a human would perceive as stopped. 

This isn't a good place to argue about this, but Kaladin is above the cloud layer, at night, with strong wind blowing all around him - he lacks a good reference point and nearly motionless would be perceived by him as truly motionless. I highly doubt it would take hours like you suggesting. 

16 hours ago, robardin said:

Do we really need to spoiler WoBs ... in an all-Cosmere spoiler forum? LOL

It's a spoiler for length, not for spoilers.

16 hours ago, robardin said:

Well, what if these were not Skybreaker Radiants, with Nahel bonds?

2 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

At the risk of repeating myself: The only way I can see to satisfy that condition without exporting Skybreakers is that you bond the Highspren on Scadrial by Scadrians.

Well, there is another option. Renarin is hard to define as a true modern Radiant with his bond with an Enlightened spren. He's something new, outside of the Radiant orders established by Ishar. What if those are "Skybreakers" bonded with an Enlightened Highspren? Mraize does want to cooperate with Sja-Anat and bond one of her spren, so maybe Ghostbloods eventually succeeded and Sja-Anat convinced Highspren to be Enlightened and they bonded with some of their agents?

The height can be explained by a simple perception trick combined with healing. Or they were originally from Scadrial, they bonded spren on Roshar and returned to Scadrial - we're talking about Ghostbloods members, they can be from everywhere.

RoW ch 54:

Quote

"When Glys and I bonded, we became … something new."

17 hours ago, robardin said:

What if they were Skybreaker squires, and somehow that squiring doesn't require as much physical proximity as we've seen the Windrunner squires requiring?

I think it's highly unlikely for Skybreaker's squires to work differently than all other orders. Squires require proximity and why would Skybreakers be different? And such strong connections rarely span distances that large. Yumi ch 21:

Quote

"You could be from somewhere farther out, I guess, but Connection on this level rarely spans that distance."

6 hours ago, Qviqve said:

but we know that by RoW the Skybreakers are aligned with Odium... does it mean that they are no longer Radiant Knight and become something else?

They are still Radiants.

6 hours ago, Qviqve said:

• Do we know if the Honorblades can get out of Roshar? Could something have happened to Nale in WaT, and his Honorblade being taken by the GB? By the epigraphs of WaT we know that the Wind and Heralds have vanished, so this could be a possibility

Yes, they can be carried out of Roshar, no, they can't grant powers to multiple people, they don't grant squires - one person holding a Honorblade gets powers, nobody else. There was a whole group of people with powers in TLM.

11 hours ago, DrPhysics said:

This isn't a typo, but it is a physics error that has bugged me for years and would be easy to fix.

One page 612:

If he dismissed his lashing except for one up and one down, there would be nothing to slow him to a stop (air drag isn't that strong). It's newton's first law: it doesn't take a force to move, it takes a force to change how you are moving.

The fix would be for him to stop first, cancel the lashings, then hang in the air.

I see no error here. This is the one example where you can't ignore air drag as that's the only force acting on Kaladin at that moment and it's enough to eventually stop him. It's not that weak to have no effect on Kaladin, it depends on the speed squared - the faster you move, the stronger drag is.

6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Dalinar sought an heir for Urithiru in case he dies. From the perspective of continuity of government that is obviously a necessity if the king intends to enter a duell. However, in the long run it seems problematic.

The Bondsmiths are the natural leaders of the Knights Radiant. In fact if both Dalniar and Navani died, it would seem to me that the Stormfather would be required to restart the process for finding a new Bondsmith. So eventually there will be a Bondsmith.

And then what? There is a king, who is not a Bondsmith. Will the new Bondsmith take orders from the king? That would seem to be a violation of the basic setup of the Knights Radiant. Will the king abdicate? Then the new Bondsmith will always be the one who overthrew Dalinar's true successor.

So how was this done before the fall of Urithiru? I would speculate that the Bondsmiths had squires and a Bondsmith regularly talked with his squires and his spren about the eventuality of succession. The Stormfather, not being human, sees the current procedure as an extension of the old procedure.

They can share the power and responsibilities, have two kings at the same time - not that uncommon in the past. 

We don't know how it worked in the past, we know there were 10 thrones in Urithiru, one for every ruler of the Silver Kingdoms. It's unlikely however they had any say in the matters of the Tower and the Radiants themselves. We don't know if Radiants even had a ruler and not some kind of council or some form of democracy.

6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Why does he get it past Jasnah and Hoid? To put it bluntly, they see it as futile. If Dalinar and Navani die, it will be over. Hoid will flee and Jasnah will surrender to Odium.

Dalinar assumes he will die in the contest, not before or after, but during it. In any case there will be no war, there will be no conflict, the borders will solidify and there would be no reason for Jasnah to surrender to Odium, who isn't their enemy anymore. Someone however has to rule over the Tower and command the Radiants - they will still exist, Urithiru will still be inhabited. 

6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

To be fair I should say how it ought to be done. The closest current analog of the Knights Radiant is, oddly enough, the Vatican. They use a council of officials as an interim government.

Yup, I agree it's very likely that Urithiru government system will shift towards democracy - especially considering that Jashan is planning to go in that direction with Alethkar already.

15 hours ago, Malim said:

Could this have been something preemptive on the Sibling's part then?  Melishi is going to try to capture BAM.  They don't know what, if any, the implications will be, so they take precautions.  Melishi creates the defences, the Sibling starts to withdraw, and the plan goes ahead.  Sure they didn't know what exactly would happen with greater Connection, they may have not even thought about it, but could this simply be a fail safe?

I highly doubt it. The plan wasn't even fully drafted when the Tower was already failing and Melishi wasn't involved in its creation - it was scholar Radiants. Also it was suggested by one record that the Sibling withdrew unintentionally, something affected them before all of this was happening. 

15 hours ago, Malim said:

Another thought: what if the plan itself went against the Sibling's beliefs?  They don't like Spren being captured and held after all.  I could see a scenario playing out like between Kaladin and Syl when he was going along with the plan to kill Elhokar.  The Sibling starts to lose themself, and withdraws, but in the actual moment, they break the bond, not Melishi.  Would this still deadeye them?  Not necessarily if it happened at the same time.  The Sibling is on a higher level than Syl after all, maybe they were able to sever the bond themselves without as many drawbacks.  If the bond had been already lessened, it might work.

This might have contributed to the disagreement between the Sibling and Radiants, but this can't be the sole reason. Kaladin swore two conflicting Oaths which was the root of his problem, Melishi wasn't even involved in the planning so I doubt he would have any reason to swear something like that. Syl was losing her mind because she needs Kaladin to think in the Physical Realm - the god spren like Stormfather or the Sibling don't need that. They are fully capable of thinking and existing in the Physical Realm on their own (yes, the bond changes them and expands their mind, but they all think clearly without it). The Sibling shouldn't have been affected by unkept Oaths like Syl was. 

Breaking the bond before Mishram was captured shouldn't cause the Sibling to lose themselves like this, they would just lose the bond and be fine with all systems online. Breaking the bond during the imprisonment would either result in Melishi's inability to complete the process, or the Sibling would turn deadeye once the process was finished (assuming Bondsmith powers were needed to imprison Mishram, which I seriously doubt based on two other examples of Unmades being captured - you just need someone who knows that Unnamed very well and who can open themselves for them).

12 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

while another comments on the effects it seemingly had, which would be after.

No, it could have. No gem was recorded after Mishram's imprisonment. OB ch 81 epigraphs:

Quote

"We are uncertain the effects this will have on the parsh. At the very least, it should deny them forms of power. Melishi is confident, but Naze-daughter-Kuzodo warns of unintended side effects."

13 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

It’s the Honorspren who say that it was the Sibling that ended the bond, and they wouldn’t actually know what happened.

They may not know what actually happened, but spren know when somebody is bonded - the Sibling was able to tell that Rlain was already taken. They were other spren who survived the Recreance (Blended for example), they would be the ones who knew there was no Bondsmith during Recreance and the Sibling broke their bond with Melishi. 

4 minutes ago, Malim said:

It was revealed that Navani's bond with the Sibling is limited both spacialy and in time.  Specifically, she cannot leave the Tower for prolonged periods without the bond weakening.  Could this be a clue as to what happened between Melishi and the Sibling?  Melishi leaves the Tower to hunt down BAM, maybe because he/she (can't remember if gender was ever stated) was the only active Bondsmith.  This weakened the bond and led to the reduction in power and withdraw of the Sibling that we see in the Gem Archive.  Melishi still had enough of a bond to do whatever needed to be done, and captured BAM in the Spirit Realm.  Then the bond was totally severed.

I'm 100% sure this wasn't it. The reduction of power would manifest in the same way as Syl leaving Kaladin for longer - his powers would fade but the bond would remain, when reunited he would regain his powers (we've seen this a little in WoR). But this shouldn't break the bond or affect the Sibling because they can create their own light - Towerlight - and with it power all functions and fabrials of the Tower, with or without the bond. I can't believe that there wasn't a longer period of time with unbonded Sibling in the past - if loss of the bond caused Urithiru to fail, this would have happened periodically in the past, yet Radiants had no clue what was happening with the Tower before the Recreance. Moreover, the hunt for BAM was not happening at the time of recording the gem archive and abandoning Urithiru - it was still being planned and they even said they would need Melishi for this in the future. 

The death of Honor and the wound caused by capturing BAM caused the Sibling to lose its ability to hear their own Tone and create the Towerlight, but something else was happening to the Sibling which made some protections and fabrials to fail. It was also said that the Sibling was the one who broke their bond - if the bond was broken after Mishram was captured, the Sibling would have become a Deadeye.

27 minutes ago, Nesh said:

I think we have a WOB that they weren't Skybreakers, but I'm having trouble finding it at the moment.

The WoB:

17 minutes ago, Nesh said:

Well, the fact that they weren't glowing also makes me doubt that they were any kind of Raidiant.

5 minutes ago, robardin said:

Why don't they visibly glow? Well, who said they're still powered by Stormlight? If they are flying based on having had some of that Dor-in-a-Jar stuff, maybe that doesn't leak out as quickly?

They can't take Stormlight off-world for all we know. And the Dor indeed doesn't make people glow - Armal and other Metalborn in the Set's village drank the entire jar of Dor and none of them were said to be glowing. 

Even if they somehow had Stormlight, they can hold so little of it in their bodies that they wouldn't be visibly glowing - Kaladin did this all the time during WoR to hide his abilities. 

21 minutes ago, CtrlAltDepressed said:

is it possible the rock is actually Talns Honorblade? 

No, they can't change their shape, they don't manifest a spren, they are stuck in this form.

14 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

Yes, Rayse needed to do this. He feared he might lose, he feared Dalinar learned something from Ishar, he was afraid of him. He needed to end this before Dalinar learned more, he needed to win decisively or end the war for good. And the more he waits, the more Radiants will be made. Waiting doesn't serve him, in the end there will be enough Radiants to launch a successful counter offensive and retake all three places if they were to fall. The status quo of the last 7000 years would be upheld, Desolations would be raging on forever, endless war, endless casualties, endless prison - Rayse needed to break the cycle. Even his Shard, the power he held, was in conflict with him over this. RoW ch 112:

Quote

“I would prefer,” Odium said, “to make an agreement.”
Why so eager? Dalinar thought. It’s the power, isn’t it? It’s ripping you apart for delaying. It wants out.

Without the deadline, Dalinar would be able to relax, plan a layered defense and even withdraw from some of those attacked positions, reorganize and counterattack, retaking them. Capturing one city, deeply surrounded by the enemy territory is not a good strategy if you need to defend it in the long run. Sure, Oathgates are a huge help, but even they wouldn't be enough. Dalinar would have enough manpower to mobilize, enough territory to retreat towards and enough time to fight for those cities.

56 minutes ago, Master Silver said:

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

Or even wilder, will Mraize strike first?

I think he will do this. Mraize is a hunter, he enjoys the hunt, he won't wait for Shallan to make her move, he will strike first.

Adolin won't ever agree to fight and kill his father, he still loves him. But that's not the point of choosing Adolin as the champion of Odium. The point is to make Dalinar unwilling to fight and break the terms, which would free Odium. For this Adolin is an ideal choice (Gavinor too tbf) and Taravangian can manipulate him into becoming his champion, promising him he won't have to fight or kill his father. This does make sense, but it would require a lot of preparation and a lot of highly unlikely set of events for Adolin to turn against his father. 

8 hours ago, TruthMisting said:

We also know Nale is the only Herald that joined his order of Radiants and he's also the one that seems the most okay. Ishar is insane, Kalek has battle shock, Taln is unresponsive, Ash has issues with her image, every single one that we have seen is not at a 100% except Nale? I mean, looking back I can't think of a moment where he wasn't logical.

Just no. Even he admits his mind isn't to be trusted anymore. He's insane, just as others, his insanity is manifested by the lack of emotions and extreme zeal in executing the law to the very letter. He's not doing well at all. Nahle Bond can't help Heralds regain their sanity. Edgedancer ch 19:

Quote

“I am sorry I must do this,” Darkness said. “Once I would have welcomed you as a sister.”
“No,” Lift said. “You’re not really sorry, are you? Can you even feel something like sorrow?”
He stopped in the hallway, sphere still gripped before him for light. He actually seemed to be considering her question.
[...]
“There are many useful emotions.”
“Which you totally feel, all the time.”
“Of course I do.…” He trailed off, and again seemed to be considering what she’d said. He cocked his head.

OB ch 106:

Quote

“We will endeavor to be as passionless and logical as you, aboshi.”
Nin laughed. It didn’t seem to carry the mirth that it should have. “Me? No, Szeth-son-Neturo. I am hardly passionless. This is the problem.” He paused, staring out the window at the distant ships. “I am … different from how I once was. Worse, perhaps? Despite all that, a part of me wishes to be merciful.”

8 hours ago, TruthMisting said:

And are we to believe that not one Radiant spoke an oath near him giving him time to reconsider?

This happened in Edgedancer, the clarity of his mind returned briefly after Lift swore the 3rd Idea and he was confronted with his failure. Edgedancer ch 19:

Quote

“I will listen,” Lift shouted, “to those who have been ignored!”
[...]
In that moment it seemed, strangely, that something within him emerged. It was stupid of her to think that with everything happening—the rain, the winds, the red lightning—she could see a difference in his eyes. But she swore that she could.
He seemed to focus, like a person waking up from a daze. His sword dropped from his fingers and puffed away into mist.
Then he slumped to his knees. “Storms. Jezrien … Ishar … It is true. I’ve failed.” He bowed his head.
And he started weeping.

39 minutes ago, PanicPug said:

As for Kelsiers bars, if he mentally splits them into tip - main body - tip (that still sounds like a stretch to me, but I can live with that) ... how far does it go? Like, would one be able to split a bar (or any object for that matter) into let's say 20 different equal parts and influence each of them separately? Is that what Zane is doing? So many questions 

They can split a metal object to many, many lines - they can see like an Inquisitor and have lines pointing to every axi at the highest end of this ability (the very highest). They can push on every line. 

33 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

In Zane's case, the equal force push/pull on a coin against the battlement means the coin cannot move, but he rotates slowly, pulling down his feet and pushing up his head (until upright)

Huh, thanks for explaining this, I never really understood this scene before. I always thought he found some coins below the wall because of his increased A-steel from a spike, which were invisible to Vin, but I always knew I was missing something here. Now it makes a lot of sense.

5 hours ago, coolsnow7 said:

Not entirely relatedly, do you have any idea what this questioner/Brandon are getting at?

Unfortunately, we don't.

10 hours ago, NerdyAarakocra said:

Additionally, I'm starting to be concerned about the race to find BAM. I don't know why the Ghostbloods want her if they already have Kelek.

My bet is Connection. BAM is able to manipulate Connection. Stormlight is tied to Roshar and Honor with Connection - removing that using BAM will allow them to carry it out of the system. Something they want to do very much. Is that the only reason? I don't know, but it's the simplest. Kalak can't do that, he can't even free himself from Roshar. Kelsier wants Kalak not just to find out where Mishram is, he wants him also to learn more about how to avoid becoming like Kalak. 

RoW ch 13:

TLM spoilers:

12 hours ago, Dreamwa1ker said:

What if this is how the final Shard is introduced? If it turns out to have an intent like "Prudence" or "Wisdom" that could be a fantastic person to review a Shardic contract for a mistake. 

Oh yes, you reminded me of this WoB:

We will have the name of the last Shard in WaT. I agree, it's also possible this is the old friend Hoid will talk to.