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He saw it first in his tea leaves. The art of prediction was a subtle one - the angled points towards the centre indicated impending danger, but the reversed spike meant awareness. Someone, perhaps several someones, were planning to kill him today. At first Kalfaix was paranoid. He kept away from the shadows - when performing to urchins or nobles, he kept a careful eye on every member of the crowd. But there were too many people to keep track of. Soon, he knew, he would slip up, and drink a poisoned drink, or feel the cold metal of a knife between his shoulderblades. The last sensation he would ever feel. It scared him - and as dusk approached, he could not stop the impending sense of dread. What would happen when the Immortal Kalfaix, the Survivorist, who claimed to have conquered death itself, died? Would they see him as a sham? He would never know. Perhaps that was why Harmony did not allow men to know their date of death. It blackened the hours leading up to it - every joyful moment, every smile, was put on edge by the knowledge that he might not do it again. Kalfaix tried to smile the rest of the day, prove that wrong, but it came out like a grimace. Not knowing your death was the ultimate form of blissful ignorance. He wondered why they would kill him, but supposed it didn’t really matter. Now, as the sun began to claw at the horizon, he knew the end was near. Someone in this crowd had prepared something. A special brand of death for a special brand of person. Kalfaix hoped he would go out fighting, like he had so long claimed he would. But maybe it was better to go peacefully. He stared at his palm. Not to read it, but to observe the sweat pooling there. The shaking fingers. When you believed you were immortal, you never really got used to mortality. He claimed he had conquered death - but he had just ignored it, his entire life, until it was right behind him and gripping his shoulders. Perhaps that was why Kalfaix had moved, from place to place, for so long. To outrun the black hound chasing him. But no one could run forever. Not from this. Kalfaix wasn’t ready. Not yet. But you had to make the most of the time you had - now, he wished he had. Might as well start now. As the sun went down, he composed himself. Stilled his shaking hands, and thought. What emotion would he die with? He settled on hope. He hoped that he would go out fighting. He could not stop death - but he wouldn’t make it easy for them, whoever it was. The man with the scales, deciding fates? Perhaps it was foolish madness to disobey. He hoped he would do it anyway. He hoped that they would remember him as he was, with a card raised to the sky and magic on his lips, with a cheering crowd below him. A swirling river, his childhood, three juggling balls arcing to the heavens. In the last day, he had been a husk of a man in a black shawl, fearing for his life. He hoped they would remember his greatness, and not his terror. He hoped there was an afterlife. He would find out soon enough. Those moments were gone, now. Memories lost. Time to die. - So I don’t think there’s much suspicious about the lynch against me, although it sort of killed discussion. (Keep activity up, people!) It’s a little frustrating that on the most part people aren’t engaging with my arguments, but I don’t think it’s unfair that I will be lynched. More information to the village. In regards to Orlok’s playstyle; you’re fine. It’s not an issue. The case against me was excellently outlined, and these last cycles have been pretty fun for me anyway. No point voting now, I suppose. I’m interested to see the process for death.

So I had some responses written up for Fifth’s post, but since he died I can’t really post them. Bother. Suffice it to say that I agreed and disagreed with some of it. I can’t say I find anything very suspicious regarding the lynch against me, although it would be nice if that didn’t stifle discussion. As usual I will do a read on the previous cycle before making a decision, but I will probably vote. It would also be nice if people responded to my arguments. Although Orlok has outlined a good case against me, it feels rather like people are overlooking my posts. Even if it doesn’t change your mind I would like people to consider what I have to say.

No 50 quotes? Awww. Hopefully I can finish this response before rollover. I think the important thing to bear in mind here is the psychology of a new player. Yes, that’s not an excuse for suspicious behaviour, and it should never be one. But it outlines the fact that I don’t have a lot of experience. Playing SE games is a lot like swimming in the 1800’s. You start in the deep end. (No, I didn’t take history.) Everyone wants to kill you, immediately, and there is incentive to act as knowledgeably and carefully as possible, even as a villager. If you’re obviously new, nobody will listen to you. And if you’re not careful, you will be lynched, regardless of your alignment. This sort of system promotes new players from holding back, lest they make mistakes that get them killed, and voting late in the cycle lest you misplace your foot. You don’t want to put a vote on someone, go to bed, and wake up to find a fully formed wagon against you. So while you are nominally playing for the village team, new players act much more like survivors than villagers, until they start to build up enough experience. Is it any reason to wonder, then, that I would hold off on voting so I didn’t get myself lynched? And when I did have to vote, that I voted for a formed wagon that had the backing for several experienced players, or voted on people who had suspicions already formed against them? Which is another point; Devotary and Fifth were pushing that lynch hard. That’s as close as you can get to a confirmed lynch D1. The result of all this is that new players play like survivors in the early rounds. Yes, I know I just said that being inexperienced is no excuse for suspicious behaviour. If someone is cleared by village, but a “new player” pushes a lynch against them, then that is separate from the new player mindset. Lynch. If people are voting late in the cycle, however, and trying to make their vote count, no matter how misguided those attempts may be, then I’d argue that that is much more indicative of a new village. The fact that I was unable to form gutreads, as I originally assumed I would be able to, meant that I joined a lynch that experienced players were pushing. Similarly: The fact that I wasn’t sure where to shift my vote (aforementioned careful play) meant that I would have likely not placed a new one - I therefore left it to promote discussion while I could work out who seemed suspicious. This seemed entirely reasonable at the time, although I’ll stop the practice if it’s a bad idea. Someone stated that you were a potentially dangerous, unreadable player - there was no similar movement against Fifth. At the time I praised him, Fifth didn’t have as much traction, and I didn’t sincerely believe that I’d be able to shift the Praise vote. (You could also argue that people develop a paranoia of their original GMs. I’ve had a hard time adjusting to your different role.) What part of “not restricting our analysis” is alignment indicative? The fact that I joined the wagon indicated to me that village would have been convinced to join it - I saw someone (albeit someone I had a village read on) trying to focus on a group of people, and I encouraged them to cast a wider net. We didn’t necessarily know whether elims were hiding in that lynch, and it would have been a bad idea to lynch based on someone joining a pretty inviting wagon. Continuing my campaign of not restricting our analysis, which I thought Fifth may be trying to do. Survival instinct of a new player. At the time of writing, only you and Rath had enough votes to swing it away from me, and I mistakenly assumed that tie votes were consistent across games. I thought it a better idea to lynch possible elim candidates, no matter how unlikely those candidates were, than to let the only confirmed villager die. That’s why I originally went Fifth - when less people followed up than I expected and we were only an hour away from the end of the cycle, I voted against the only players who I could - people who had votes already. Better to lynch a possible elim, in my mind, than kill the only person who I knew the alignment of. You appear to have missed my explanation of why I voted against you, even when I didn’t have a very good argument. It’s in this cycle, just below one of your other posts. Rath was threatening to lynch me to survive - I shifted my vote to one of the other candidates who could be elim. Real life does happen, and the argument I provided doesn’t hold up, but it was a poor justification for a dual survival instinct and the best lynch candidate I could find with minutes to spare. In conclusion; a new player mindset doesn’t clear suspicious behavior, but it does provide reasoning for certain voting and posting patterns that may be considered anomalous, like holding off on votes and playing like a survivor. Your other arguments appear to draw from the basis that I’m suspicious, which rely on said new player actions.

You weren’t my first choice for lynch (you weren’t even my second) but I deemed it possible, if not likely, that you were elim. Since I know my own alignment, it was better to take a gamble about someone else’s alignment than have a guaranteed village death, even if said gamble wasn’t very well justified. (It was also so late in the cycle that my vote couldn’t have had an effect on anyone else’s.) You are known as being notoriously hard to read, so I wasn’t really able to tell either way. Fortunately, the lynch rules are different in this game, which I did not realise. I am a little hyped to see this multiquote masterpiece, however.

...Huh. I thought that tied lynches just resulted in a coin flip over who would die? Apparently not. I would still like to hear from @Orlok Tsubodai, as their explanation would help dissuade my gathering suspicions. I’d also encourage the coinshot(s) to make up for the tie. The two deaths on the first night suggest that there is at least one, but they haven’t been submitting every turn. That was a waste of a turn unfortunately. Activity wasn’t great, which didn’t help very much. Hopefully we start to see some more posting over the weekend.

Rath, Coop Badadah is Ark, yes. That’s fair. I had a village read on you as well, although now I’m honestly not sure. But of all of the votes against Itiah, Orlok’s seemed the flimsiest - they promised to provide justification, but it’s been three days and a full cycle since then. Coop Edit: Er, @Rathmaskal? World’s most awkward ninja.

It surprises me that more concern hasn’t been raised over the Itiah vote. Four votes were placed within the last 12 hours of the cycle, which swung the lynch away from being between Fifth and Rath. This makes me suspect that Fifth was concerned about, and got other elims to swing the vote late in the cycle. I’m interested to see what Rath will do with influence, which could be just as revealing as starting a lynch against them. EDIT: Fifth, Rath Less people voted than I thought. In the interest of self preservation (I need to preserve the only confirmed village that I know) I will go with Rath. As one of the other candidates for being responsible for the Itiah swing, they are a safe bet (although I don’t understand Nohadon’s reasoning for their vote). I’ll pokepraise Coop as well, as I think some more activity would be nice.

We technically don’t, but logical deduction can help us deduce what happened. Either Ela is elim or village. If they’re elim, then the attack is either an attempt to gain our trust or an attack by a coinshot. Given that there was only one kill submitted, and that a group of elims are more likely to submit an action than a single village coinshot, we can probably safely assume that the attack on Ela is from the elim team. The attack could be a WGG, however, given past plays where thugs have been killed after discovering their role, and the fact that they have to submit an action to burn pewter every night to survive, it would be unlikely for it to be a WGG with a thug. The second option is that the elim team has a Lurcher, and Ela isn’t a thug. That’s probably the most likely WGG scenario, although Rath said that they found it unlikely that the elims would have that role (since it’s a little OP). If Ela is village, there isn’t really any reason for them to lie about being a thug. The only reason for a Lurcher to not contact them is if they don’t trust her; but it’s unlikely that she would be lurched in the first place if that was the case. Therefore, Ela is probably a village thug. We can’t entirely clear the possibility of a WGG, but I’m applying Occam’s razor.

I am arguing against you being elim, which is why I retracted my vote and posted what I did above. (It was a sort of pokevote in the first place.) It’s Araris and others who have outlined suspicion of you. As for influence, there was a tie for Praise, so no one was influential. (Ninja’d, Rath.)

As stated in one of my earlier posts: I was planning to change my vote once I did a read on everyone. Ark seemed to me as more of an inexperienced player, as I (possibly mistakenly) assumed this was one of his first rodeos. I considered it hypocritical to lynch someone due to inexperience. It was also somewhat of a pokevote - rereading my posts, that’s not entirely clear, but I think it explains my actions somewhat. (I also believe that Steel’s vote was based on a gutread.) As for Ela being attacked, I can’t think of a reason for her to lie about that. And while being a thug is NAI, given the timing and a general rule that elims are more active as a group than any individual coinshot, I’d agree that this softclears her.

If you could elaborate a bit more on why that post set you off, that would be excellent - especially since you agreed with me in its first half. Which is what I said: It’s this, combined with the aforementioned odd tone that I started to pick up on a second read through, that set me off on Fifth. I don’t see Rath as elim, and I think Ark is just inexperienced.

Ark, Elandera Right now, I’m mostly just getting an inexperienced vibe from Ark - not inactive, persay, but holding back. It’s entirely possible that they are elim, but it is always harder to tell. (If you could speak up a little more, Ark, that would be excellent - if you’re village it would help us to clear you. And if you’re elim - well, who doesn’t like a little bit of lynching every now and then? ) I did a read of Fifth, and while his posts are strangely worded, that’s all very circumstantial. I do, however, take issue with voting Rath for what I read to be a fairly innocent although narrow way of trying to detect elims. If Fifth flips elim, then it’s entirely possible that several CadCom voters are also elim, and he was trying to prevent analysis of them. I will continue to praise Elandera.

I promised I would analyse, so here I am. Firstly, the CadCom lynch. The main questions surrounding this are whether it was suspicious, and whether or not elims would have joined it. I don’t believe it was suspicious at all; with both Fifth and Devotary strongly encouraging it, who are two experienced analysts, then it naturally follows that there would be village joining that lynch (especially, if I may add, inexperienced players who didn’t trust their own gut. I’m hesitantly filing Ark’s vote against Snip in this category as well, although that case is quite different as the Snip lynch was a pokevote that turned into a wagon). So I’m not considering those votes as a whole suspicious. The question remains whether elims would have joined. Given the size of votes it’s possible that an elim would be in the group. However, I’d say it’s equally likely that the elims would’ve just let the lynch happen, especially because the second possible lynch was Snip. Both candidates were village, so I wouldn’t think that elims would have incentive to push one over the other. (If Snip turned out elim, then it would be much more likely that many of the votes against Cadmium would have been elims trying to tip the balance, which is why I think Snip was targeted so quickly. The elim kill would therefore likely be against Devotary, aforementioned good analyst.) So, while its entirely possible there is an elim hiding among the late votes, I don’t think we should restrict our analysis to just those candidates; that would be an excellent way to burn through several cycles without furthering the cause. We should be looking at wider behaviour, and considering the votes in context of other actions, in order to determine elims. The Fifth-Orlok discussion is interesting, even if you ignore the reaction to it. Due to my position I’m most certainly not qualified to comment on the Meta surrounding the games (should change my name - almost Ookla season). But it doesn’t indicate anything about alignments to an outside perspective. It could be two experienced elims playing off each other, or one trying to dissuade suspicion of another, or just two villagers getting paranoid. I haven’t been able to develop a solid read on either of them, despite initially favouring Fifth in what was on reflection a kneejerk reaction. But I’ll go through later and see if anything piques my interest. We shouldn’t necessarily assume one is an elim, although that was my initial reaction. But we should keep an eye on both of them to see if they act up in the future. If enough people get consistent elim reads on one of them, though, we shouldn’t hesitate to start acting on that. Votes? I’d like to hear a little more out of Ark (@Ark1002) as it’s their votes I am most unsure about right now. That will most likely change after I do a read on everyone. As for Praise, I’ve been getting good vibes from Elandera so far.

My Orlok opinion was largely kneejerk reaction to an unusual power being granted to an experienced player, which I wasn’t entirely sure what to make of. Looking back I think I shouldn’t have reacted in such a way, as Orlok hasn’t done anything that indicates elim for me. But at the time people reporting him as possibly dangerous was enough to set off alarm bells. I’ll try not to do that again. As for the CadCom lynch; as others have stated, with several experienced players pushing this lynch pretty heavily, it’s understandable that some village would jump on board without much trouble (especially since the Snip lynch seemed to originate from a pokevote). Given the numbers there will probably be at least one elim among there, but I think who that elim is can’t be determined by whether or not they joined the lynch, as it’s something both village and elim would want to push. (But, again, I will try to explain my votes in greater detail into the future beyond agreeing with someone). Lynch: Fifth (1): Orlok, Orlok Shqueeves (3): Fifth, Elandera Ark (1): Araris Xino (1): Rathmaksal Steel (1): Bard Praise Snip (0): Orlok Aonar (1): Orlok Elandera (2): Fifth Itiah (1): Rathmaksal Rathmaksal (1): Araris Bard (1): Elandera Araris (1): Bard I realise this post isn’t very substantial, so I will try and do some solid analysis soon.

(Ninja’d, Devotary.) Kalfaix stared at the news, a monocle pressed up to his right eye. Murder of an allomancer? The sheets were in an uproar - anyone could be next, they claimed. But little did they know that Immortal Kalfaix could not be killed. How long had he been alive for? Several decades, by now, and through all that time he hadn’t been dead for one second of it. Statistically speaking, he was immortal. Even if someone plotted against someone, he would turn their knives into handkerchiefs and disappear with a flash of smoke, without a trace of him left. (There was that one time he left his shoes behind, but that hadn’t happened since, and the shoes weren’t that comfortable anyway.) It was a shame, though. Miomounder could have been vital to the effort of stamping out those Hemalurgic creatures - he dared not call them human. For now, they had to rely on their own wits.

I agree with Fifth’s and Devotary’s analysis. No problems with it that I can see. xinoehp, Fifth Scholar CadCom, Fifth Scholar

As he approached the barrier, one hand firmly closed around his long-range object manipulation device, Alum began feeling a distinct sense of malaise. As if something was... off, somehow. It was probably his mind's default reaction to being near an object so powerful, even if it couldn't affect him. But the deserted street, the long expanse of quiet empty alleyway leading up to the massive metal spike... it put him on edge. But, surprisingly, nothing happened. No mistbeavers swarmed from beneath the cobblestones to tear Alum apart - no portals opened to transport him to an alien dimension. There was only the man, and the stick, and the street, and the spike. He knew when he had reached the Aonic boundary. A shimmer extended up from the ground, ever so slightly curved. Not entirely transparent, but not entirely opaque, either. The massive metal object was visible through the barrier. But yet he could get a sense of the madness that this shield contained - for it blocked out the horrors, but looking from an outside perspective he understood that there were things missing. From Rashan's texts that he had read. Endless chaos, turning, mirroring, folding away... Enough of that. Alum stared at the dessicated, mouldy object that had once been a pineapple, then at the stick. Don't look at the shield. For even though it blocked the chaos, it blocked too much, making the act of looking through from a close distance an altogether uncanny affair. Pyrus had disappeared. Perhaps that was for the best. With part of him hoping against hope that nothing happened, he lifted his stick. And poked the barrier.

“These are all good ideas. I, for one, would like to see what happens to Investiture.” Alum pulled out his last spheres, but they were dun. “Mahz? You should have some Stormlight. As for me, I might get just a little bit closer to the barrier, just to see what attacks me.” He began to walk towards the forcefield, slowly, waiting for whatever preliminary defences there were to trigger. And perhaps, once he got closer, he would be able to observe the Aons that made up the barrier more closely.

I’ll hold my pokevote until you vote, if that’s alright (unless you know you won’t be able to). - Kalfaix smiled. “Ah. An audience. Yes, yes, pick a card. No, not that one! Not that one either. I suppose that one will do. Now, take a good long look at it, and memorise it.” He began cutting the deck to distract from the fact that he was predicting which card Severance held. Judging from the markings, it was a six of clubs. “Now, put it back here. Excellent. And now I shall shuffle...” He pulled a Zarrow, carefully manipulating the card around the deck. Cut it to the bottom, then some overhands, and finally shuffle it up to the top. Kalfaix smiled gleefully. “Would you agree that the deck has been shuffled thoroughly?” Not waiting for a reply, he pretended to summon the card in question to the top of the deck. Then, with excessive melodrama, he pulled it out, to reveal... The three of hearts. Blast. “Not that one. Sorry.” He pulled up the next card, and the next, and the next, cards fluttering to the ground. The six was nowhere to be found. In despair he fanned the deck out, only to discover the six of clubs was no longer in the deck at all. How had that happened? In despair, he threw the deck over his shoulder. “The evil influences in this room have meddled with my powers!” Kalfaix announced. “Truly, this house is in a bad place. I need to go gather my prescient thoughts.” In a huff, he went to kneel in the corner, adopting a meditative pose. He had learnt it from a man from Tathingdwelm and it had the double bonus of being very dramatic and extremely comfortable. It didn’t help with meditation at all, of course, but that was showbusiness for you.

I’m not sure if Nohadon’s abstention is being counted or not. We have yet to hear from a few people, so I’ll pokevote @xinoehp512. I’m also concerned about the Orlok praise, since we could be shooting ourselves in the foot, but it seems like they’ll get it anyway at this point. For now I’ll go with Fifth, who I think is a possible alternative. xinoehp/Fifth

It’s interesting to see who everyone was. I didn’t guess anyone (unsurprisingly). I thought Wit was Rand for a while, though. I was also very careful not to give the game away during the proceedings, although the fact no one guessed who I was (although I’m flattered by some of the guesses) probably indicates that no one knows me here well enough. If you ever see someone using Latin and complex run-on sentences, you’ve caught me. Even more wow. Looking at the spreadsheet just makes my head spin. It’s interesting to see just how close I and others came to fulfilling our wincons on multiple occasions - and I can’t help but smile reading the Beggar Feast doc and seeing everything from an outside perspective.

I... wow. I have a lot of thoughts, suggestions and praise to give on this, and I’m not really in a place to cover everything. I’ll do that later. But briefly: that was way too much fun. Congratulations to Wilson, Elbereth and Orlok for running an extremely successful and extremely enjoyable game. Firstly; I was Ialai. This was my first proper SE game. I think I did OK, but I didn’t meet my final wincon. Luck and IRL business (and my cooperators) seemed to conspire against me over the last few turns. In the end I determined that it was best to prevent the Desolation - killing Tearim to cover all the bases - than to follow my own goals. That didn’t really work out, but that’s hindsight for you. I’d like to thank those who helped me - especially whoever Liss was, since I ended up getting her lynched. Sorry. I don’t think it ever fully transpired that I set Adolin up completely and knowingly for the lynch, either. And sorry to Torol, for killing you via redirect. (Oops!) And to Szeth, for killing you. I might have missed some people. If this sort of game were to be ever run again (after a long hiatus, as the GMs attempt to regain whatever semblance of sanity that they lost during the undoubtedly nightmarish rollovers), then I would love to be a part of it. Well done, everyone. (Who did kill Straw? Do we know?)

A drumroll started up. Coloured smoke filtered through the door. Bright lights spun and strobed and wheeled around, illuminating a shadow in the doorway. Tall, darkly robed, and mysterious. Exotic animals were released for maximum effect, and a brightly coloured bird flapped heavily across the room, drawing eyes and shouts. Green and yellow feathers swirled as, with a flash of red powder, the screaming delight of fans of and the sound of amazement of all who looked upon him, the Travelling Magician, Imortal Kalfaix stepped into the room. He wished. In actuality, Kalfaix hadn’t had any time to prepare a proper introduction, especially with all the nasty Spiked business. No swooning crowds, no stagehands. He’d been shuffled into the meeting like a jack of clubs after a riffle, with no more respect than a measly beggar doing parkour tricks. His trip had went without much more than a gourmet meal. When one had travelled so far they had expected more from their house. But he was Kalfaix, renowned non-Allomantic sorcerer and generally amazing person, and he would make the most of what he had. And what did could magician do without resources? Card tricks. With a single deft flick of a hand, Kalfaix fanned the deck, letting them flutter and spin between his fingers, careful constructions unfolding like origami. Ignoring the few errant cards wafting to the crowd after his display, the Renowned Traveller spoke aloud: “O great House Heron! Never fear! Kalfaix, the Renowned Seer, of Tarier, is here. I suspect my unique prescient and magical talents may be of particular use in this situation. Would anyone care to pick a card?” Alright! First LG, which I’m excited about, and it looks like I can properly get involved in this one. To briefly comment on what other people have said, a D1 lynch is usually a good idea. Even if it’s wrong, we get voting patterns and vouches, which is about the only concrete evidence we can receive during the early game. As for the Praise vote, we’ll want to be careful with that one. As a result I’m not going to vote yet, until I can get a solid gutread both ways on someone.

Sorry for the very late entry, but if there’s still room I’ll sign up as the Immortal Kalfaix, a travelling magician. If not, I’m happy to pinch hit.