Long Game 82: Secrets Written in Metal

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Um, do you actually think that (prior to seeing the flip)? Because you are both currently voting for Archer, and seemed slightly willing to vote Illwei earlier. I'm currently trying to make my vote not pointless without moving it. Which is honestly not something I've tried a lot before on D1.

No, I don’t. I said if Archer flips village. Not when.

[Kasimir he/him]

Oh God I nearly missed rollover.

Right, more thoughts:

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

He was being a bit of a jerk, and there were things to defend against. It felt like he danced around the issue of his playstyle for a while, and someone else actually pointed out that he'd said that pre-game. And I don't really know how to justify that I saw those things as jerkish, but they definitely felt a little bit harsher than if he was just trying to "jokingly pointing out logical inconsistencies." And honestly if Archer flips vil, this series of posts feels very much an elim move to gain trust to me - you're trying to switch my vote off vil!Archer and onto vil!Illwei to gain some easy village points.

I dunno but I actually get a soft Village toneread off this. Partly what Araris said about Evil Szeth having no reason to scope (as opposed to tunnel) this hard on Archer, but partly also because it reads more engaged than I've gotten off Szeth's earlier posts, enough to tip me off the fence.

58 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

I don’t really like her reasoning for voting Archer, and I think elim!Illwei would definitely take a chance to vote out v!Archer. I didn't have any read on Sart, and I have a slightly positive read of Archer. I do realize my vote is currently kinda useless, so let’s see if I can fix that.

Hmm.

58 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

Sart has pulled off of you, interested in an Illwei vote? Mostly because I’d prefer to vote out someone that has been talking. The elims will have Tani as a no-info kill regardless of whether we vote out Mage.

Will they go no info though? Is this the current trend?

12 hours ago, ookla the lowercase said:

and i'm ninja'd by araris but i think i trust illwei though... so uh... to heck with it, i'm taking the coward's way out. mage. he's the only person who hasn't posted. let the contribution crusade ride again.

I'm looking at this again. I'm not a fan of contribution crusade lynches. I think they can be easy places for Elims to hide, but they're useful in allowing us to exclude certain options.

This means of the current live, viable options:

• Archer
• Mage
• Illwei

I'm most eh about the Mage lynch. I think it's a bit too late in the cycle to veer there and hope for the best. I have no particularly strong feelings about Archer or Illwei. I'm not a fan of the argument that Evil Illwei might gun for an Village Archer lynch D1 if she can because Eiwlil gonna Eiwlil. 

I'm sticking with Danex. I still don't like that raw opportunism, and either way, Archer's headed for the lynch.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

stormfather

i really hope archer doesn’t flip vil

sorry i yelled at you araris

asdfghjkl

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Confused said:

stormfather

i really hope archer doesn’t flip vil

sorry i yelled at you araris

asdfghjkl

I don't think you were being a jerk. You were just joking, right?

[Archer he/him]

Doing a speed read, but I'm getting village vibes from both Araris and Szeth from their conversation. Elims don't usually slug it out if they don't have to. 

Illwei, Mage

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Porched said:

I don't think you were being a jerk. You were just joking, right?

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Porched said:

I don't think you were being a jerk. You were just joking, right?

I read it as 'jerking' for a few hot seconds and went 'damn that's one hell of a pun.'

[Archer he/him]

*Kas pointedly refrains from taking my tie bait*

I see how it is. :P. 

[Mat he/him]

Time! Cycle will be up when it's up.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Paranormal said:

*Kas pointedly refrains from taking my tie bait*

I see how it is. :P. 

I think you're referring to Striker here. No point in causing a tie now. Elims can't react in this window, if they're even on.

[Mat he/him]

LG82: Night One: Bronze is Love, Bronze is Life

Brawnze was new to Luthadel, but he didn't think that was any excuse for the behavior of the locals. They just didn't understand the bronze. Bronze was love, bronze was life. Bronze was not food.

That was a pity, really.

He was constantly forced to move from group to group as more and more people disregarded his bronze. Why didn't they understand? It was not hard to understand. Take the bronze, use the bronze, just don't eat the bronze. Maybe the people didn't like Brawnze's attempt at lunch.

The crowd of people following him grew. Maybe Brawnze was being successful! But the people weren't taking the bronze. No. Brawnze was not successful until the people took the bronze.

"Hey!" he shouted. "Take this bronze!" Brawnze gestured at the sled. "Use this bronze!"

"We don't need more metal!" someone shouted. Other voices joined in. So loud. Brawnze couldn't tell what the loud people were saying.

"Bronze!" he protested.

An arrow suddenly flew from the left, and time seemed to slow to a crawl. Brawnze looked down at his chest, where he knew it would hit.

Ping!

Brawnze smiled wide, showing his teeth to the silenced crowd. He pulled back his shirt, revealing a dented metal breastplate underneath.

"Bronze!"

---

Archer was executed, but survived!

Vote Count:

• Archer (3): Szeth_Pancakes, Illwei, Danex
• Illwei (2): Araris Valerian, Archer
• Mage (1): Sart
• Danex (1): Kasimir

Night One has begun, and will end in about 24 hours, on Saturday, December 4th, at 10am PST.

• Don't forget to submit any actions you may or may not have...
• PMs are closed
• Pinging @Mage for inactivity, even though I don't have an official filter.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Ookla the Porched (Araris Valerian) - Lord Hadrian Penrod
2. @Ooklil' the Wei (Illwei)
3. @Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos (Tani) - Reva
4. @ookla the quantificational (Danex)
5. @Ookla the Confused (Szeth_Pancakes)
6. @Mage
7. @ookla the lowercase (Sart)
8. @Ookla the Paranormal (Archer) - Brawnze
9. @Ookla the Wyrmslayer (Kasimir) - Kiril Jerzy

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ookla the Pianist

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

SCUD STORMS BLOOD AND DARKNESS

[Kasimir he/him]

FIELD LOGS #0412-CTU

Hurried communication with the prof. Was reminded it is the foremost duty of a scholar to keep up with note-taking. Wasted field study otherwise.

Brawnze [=Archer] was suspected to be one of the Feruchemists. Someone tried to shoot Brawnze. Seems he came prepared. Possible demonstration of Allomancy, or perhaps Feruchemy. The locals here do not seem afraid to rely on metal for more mundane means of protection. Seems odd that he did not signal it though. A well-protected target is often itself a deterrent. [=Well, we now know there's one Thug-type role in this game. Hey Archer, any reason you wanted to wager on a tie with Illwei this late rather than telling us the lynch wasn't gonna work?]

No sign of Emotional Allomancy or any Feruchemical equivalent that I could detect. Just old-fashioned hostility between Feruchemical and Allomantic subcultures. Understand the conflict began with repeated arguments about which Metallic Art was superior; similarity to the literature on thieving gang subcultures in Elendel, some of whom claim a connection to the thieving crews of the Survivor's days in the Final Empire. [=No obvious sign of vote manip. Might be because it didn't exist, or there was no need to. I feel that if Archer was Elim, it's interesting his teammates didn't choose to reveal vote manip to protect that extra life. It's not impossible they felt concealing vote manip was more important. But it's odd to me to burn an extra life when you don't have to. And Archer arguably did try to pull me onto Illwei which is consistent with either alignment IMO.]

Perhaps there are more Thugs or similar Feruchemists concealed here. Penrod [=Araris] speculated earlier that the conflict between the Feruchemists and Allomancers would be over swiftly. He might be more optimistic than expected. A number of Thugs or Feruchemical equivalents would slow matters down quite a bit. Yet, that itself ought to imply the existence of a Coinshot...

The night will carry more information with it, no doubt.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Brawnze [=Archer] was suspected to be one of the Feruchemists. Someone tried to shoot Brawnze. Seems he came prepared. Possible demonstration of Allomancy, or perhaps Feruchemy. The locals here do not seem afraid to rely on metal for more mundane means of protection. Seems odd that he did not signal it though. A well-protected target is often itself a deterrent. [=Well, we now know there's one Thug-type role in this game. Hey Archer, any reason you wanted to wager on a tie with Illwei this late rather than telling us the lynch wasn't gonna work?]

Maybe, instead of a role, it's an item? Idk

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

Maybe, instead of a role, it's an item? Idk

Possible too. I just think in Tyrian terms automatically since this is in theory a Scadrial game at core with Allomancers versus Feruchemists.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

Possible too. I just think in Tyrian terms automatically since this is in theory a Scadrial game at core with Allomancers versus Feruchemists.

The writers got the idea of an item in my head, but when I think about it more, it’s more likely that there’s a Thug-type role. Don’t take that as hard fact though.

[Kasimir he/him]

38 minutes ago, Ookla the Confused said:

The writers got the idea of an item in my head, but when I think about it more, it’s more likely that there’s a Thug-type role. Don’t take that as hard fact though.

If he's a Thug, it would be appropriate though. Prescient name.

Brawnze, geddit >>

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

12 minutes ago, Ookla the Wyrmslayer said:

If he's a Thug, it would be appropriate though. Prescient name.

Brawnze, geddit >>

[Archer he/him]

Surprise. :D. I figured I could at least wrangle up a tie, which created the possibility that I wouldn't be exed, and I could keep my pewter a secret. (But Archer, you ask, why were you worried if you had an extra life? I would point you to the last anon game where I was very adverse to being exed even though I would have survived. I like to have a chance of killing someone evil every time. Being injured isn't productive.)

Kas, I didn't mention my role because I think that would have encouraged votes, not dissuaded them. It also lessons the stakes, which I felt had been raised to an informative level. I stand by my assessment that Szeth got way too involved in a bad argument to be evil. I'm sure their teammates would have suggested they back off at some point, although I think e!Szeth plays a bit lone wolf? I was evil with them in a game where we basically half sussed each other the whole time and didn't question each other's approaches too much. 

Szeth, to answer your previous question, it's been like the last four or so games? Hard to remember. 

2 hours ago, Ookla the Confused said:

Maybe, instead of a role, it's an item? Idk

Do you have an item? If you do, that confuses my assumptions about the game. 

So here's my outstanding questions. 

-Why so many vanity votes? I appreciate Araris' attempt to persuade the thread to join him, but I expected him to give up in the face of Szeth's refusal to move and change his vote to somewhere more meaningful, like on Mage. I also may have misjudged whether v!Kas would jump at the chance to make a tie for its own sake, but I also figured that he'd like the Illwei/Me coinflip. Or he'd vote manip proof the wagon on me. Just voting Danex was fairly pointless since Danex rarely comes on for early rollovers. (Araris-Mage, Kas-Illwei possible e-es.)

A possible reason is the elims' hesitance to all be an a bad wagon. 

-Who's my theoretical teammate? It's gotta be someone who didn't avoid helping me and that I didn't try to make a wagon on, which knocks out most of the group. By the way, if you're another villager with an extra life, you might want to consider what the elims have to balance that. Is it a three person team or are they packing some firepower? There was no vote manip, so I think a lot of power roles are on the table. 

-Who is evil? Araris and Szeth are trusts. Sart's vote was hard to read. Mage and Tani are nulls. I don't like Kas' vote. Danex and Illwei's were worse. If we're gunning for the elim who is hiding in the peripherals, I would be willing to vote Illwei tommorow. 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

Do you have an item?

No and also i forgot - i'm a thug too just btw

Edit: oops

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ookla the Confused
Quoting PMs is not allowed

[Kasimir he/him]

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

-Why so many vanity votes? I appreciate Araris' attempt to persuade the thread to join him, but I expected him to give up in the face of Szeth's refusal to move and change his vote to somewhere more meaningful, like on Mage. I also may have misjudged whether v!Kas would jump at the chance to make a tie for its own sake, but I also figured that he'd like the Illwei/Me coinflip. Or he'd vote manip proof the wagon on me. Just voting Danex was fairly pointless since Danex rarely comes on for early rollovers. (Araris-Mage, Kas-Illwei possible e-es.)

In very general terms, when ties don't lead to a no kill, I don't like vote manip-proofing wagons, because suppose there was vote manip. The mere fact that vote manip exists in this blackout, small group game is informative, as is who the vote manip was trying to kill or save, in light of the flip information. This goes doubly because everyone who could have been killed by vote manip was someone I didn't mind getting a flip off, except for Mage, but in Mage's case, it's more eh, whatever. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Contribution Crusade lynches work under very specific circumstances. (Namely, by flushing out lurking Elims or the teammates of inactive Elims - if the latter at all.) By the end of the cycle, it was apparent to me this was not going to work, and lynching Mage felt like a waste of time, especially when the big throwdown was between you and Szeth-Illwei.

So I don't play with Danex enough in games where Danex is active to note Danex's rollover sign-on patterns. But moreover, in light of my thoughts in the previous paragraph, I'm tired of being dragged into lynches I don't feel or don't particularly care about. One way or another, we were going to get a flip I was okay with getting. I might as well put my vote and my pressure where my suspicions actually are and see if I can get a reaction out of Danex or another player, or if I can get someone else to go with me on this. I didn't like Danex's opportunistic vote. I felt better about Szeth which meant Szeth wasn't on the table.

[---]

I was so excited to announce a townread on Szeth but now its absolutely useless. cool.

If you play, don't forget to read the rules (which i still think should be numbered for ease of reference).

Quote

Don’t quote anything from your GM PM during the game for any reason. This includes quoting your role PM or action results. Do not show your GM PM to any other player.

---

Anyways, Archer is self-resolving imo.

Kas might be town.

this game feels more like a quick fix, kas, doesn't it?

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I was so excited to announce a townread on Szeth but now its absolutely useless. cool.

If you play, don't forget to read the rules (which i still think should be numbered for ease of reference).

---

Anyways, Archer is self-resolving imo.

Kas might be town.

this game feels more like a quick fix, kas, doesn't it?

yeah i know Devotary told me off

also sorry for ruining your read

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

this game feels more like a quick fix, kas, doesn't it?

>shrugwormmon.jpg

Szeth claimed Thug, Archer is Thug. At current prevalence levels, I would not be surprised to find more Thugs within this game. (QF1 flashbacks where everyone except me seemed to be a Gunner...) That might slow things down enough to be a bit less fast-paced. But one problem is that high Thug prevalence doesn't quite favour the Village - it's balanced out with the slower information rate, since mislynch rates would then be potentially higher, and technically mislynching Village Thugs helps Elims guarantee a kill. And this is without postulating Elim Coinshots etcetera.

tldr; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

40 minutes ago, Ookla the Paranormal said:

-Who is evil? Araris and Szeth are trusts. Sart's vote was hard to read. Mage and Tani are nulls. I don't like Kas' vote. Danex and Illwei's were worse. If we're gunning for the elim who is hiding in the peripherals, I would be willing to vote Illwei tommorow. 

I could see a thug!Illwei/Archer team, though that seems a bit unbalanced. Maybe also a Danex/Archer team? Wasn't Archer the only one saying Danex's vote on him was opportunistic?