Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[JNV]

Hi Im cancelling my PM everyone plan cause I just dont have time to sustain that many meaningful conversations but if you want to chat Im happy to respond 

So heres some posts that exist and made my brain spin

21 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Oh, hey, I know who I am.

Hello friends, Elvish, Elfish, and everything inbetween.

Rules analysis coming tomorrow, which means you should definitely vote me since we all know that's one of my Elim tells.

See like this inherently just pulls at my instinctual suspicion but like I just dont see the only evil guy behaving like this like The Unknown Novel is always susupciious to me but not deliberately antagonistic towards the masses as far as I recall so not so much a trust as a 'I have no idea why youd do this as evil especially in this game' thing

20 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

Matrim's Dice

Sorta the same feelings as with The Unknown Novel defnitely pings the evildar but I dont get it 

20 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm curious why the GM thought it was safe to drop the C1 exe protection for the elim. Just rolling the dice to avoid making the round feel pointless? Or did they give them a protection item that Devo wants to swindle them out of by *checks notes* asking politely. 

TUN is asking to be killed. Which makes me think they're village. Dannnnex on the other hand, has no comments? 

Dannnnnnnex

This rings false on eperson displays abnormal for them inherently suspicious behavior gets a trust one person displays normal expected but also inherently suspicious behavior gets a vote it just feels contrived honestly the question bit feels normal though its just the last bit and how its framed as 'heres something good heres something bad' when its just the same wobbles

20 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'd put more stock on wanting to die closer to rollover.

But I fully endorse NFC (TM) reads.

What does NFC mean 

16 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I have to agree that it is interesting that Melkor lost his first turn immunity it is even more interesting to me that he has only 1 conversion, which means that whoever Melkor is, they are going to want to use it very wisely. Honestly, I would spend at least 2 cycles smithing a helm or trinkets/killing people and then going for the convert, unless we somehow found him by happenstance by that point. I believe that both of these are due to the fact that the village has been having... trouble lately. I mean, Devo and Vorros took on a fully powered village, by themselves and won! That combined with the facts that the village roles in this game are much less powerful and that Melkor gets to choose his teammate gives the Elims a pretty decent chance.

I think that we can agree that Melkor isn't going to convert someone that's under the hot seat just because they want their teammate to last. Whether they choose someone who's neutral or Vil leaned by most people, is much harder to guess and is likely to be based off of playstyle. Also, getting a read on Melkor is going to be darn near impossible, because we aren't looking for a coordinated team, we're looking for a single person right now. Melkor's only goal right now is pure survival so we just have to find the person with "the most to live for".

This currently brings to my mind TUN, Devo, and JNV.

TUN because he posted about how he is going to post about something that is usually elim behavior from him but it doesn't mean anything this time. I really only slightly think he could be Melkor,

Devo, well he pretty much screams survival and having more that one shield wouldn't do anything for him since you have to activate it as an action and thus it would make more sense to smithy a bunch of shields and hand them out to many people. I however think that this is a little too out there, but then again, that seems to be Devo's elim strategy, so I wouldn't put it past him to do this. I would vote for him, but...

JNV, the rules analysis was kind of all over and more like a recommendation on how to play the different roles that one might have. This makes me slightly suspicious but what really draws my attention is that the post feels rushed. Like they wanted to get it out and make it seem like a big deal so that they wouldn't be considered for exeing. This one is more of gut feeling, so I'll probably end up moving my vote to Devo or TUN, but JNV's post is just a great way to hide in the chaos.

I think Devotary was joking I mean tonally it was funny to me all the definitelys and such thrown in you know  and yeah thats exactly my rule analysis I throw something togteher at midnight saying what people should do before I sleep 

8 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

You're right, I kind of tunnel visioned there. There are a number of viable Melkor strategies, so I agree, we should try to stay open minded.

I'm parking my vote on JNV for now. 

Im a parking lot now thats cool never been one of those before

7 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

As a person who is currently reading the Silmarillion, punch people, don't trust Melkor, punch some more people, and party.

I'm going to be saying this a lot, but that was a joke, pointed at you since you said that was my Elim tell last time I did it, (I think you got me exed too) and then I flipped vil.

I don't know enough about Aegnor, but he can step in Things place I guess.

As I said above, it was a joke because that has always been NAI for me (despite what some people may think, Mat).

I'd be in the discussion more if I could, but unlike Kas I have to sleep now and again.

I still plan on doing that rules analysis, but I have other things I'm going to be doing for a little while, but I think I will still get it done before rollover.

Well its almost rollover hows that role anlaysis coming along

4 hours ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

I don’t really know the devious strategies for this game, and since I think role-claiming is allowed, I’m just going to say it. I’m Feanor! Yay.

................................huh

You wanna toss any items my way before you get murdered?

42 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Once you do get a convert, you'll be able to fakeclaim a role much more easily.

Feanor can keep the kill for himself but that delays his roleclaim and makes him a conversion target.

It's good for there to be 1-2 people who don't vote so Orators can prove their role if they wish.

I think Archer is Melkor. I'll even say the name this time. Subtle complaining about losing exe immunity + discussing conversion times and targets + Finwe hunting.

My planned response to this goes out the window cause of the claim so one sec let me get some thoughts on that

Heres the thing heres the thing heres the thing having a role doesnt confirm anything cause you can have more than one

Also dan+ex for living cause I do want to live but in a more ideal world Id be voting for someone who ahsnt said anything yet or is just floating by 

[danex he/him]

Danex (3): Archer, bookworm, JNV
Conquestor (1): Kas,
JNV (2): Conquestor, SS
Araris (1): Mat
TWW (1): Danex

Guess I'm going JNV for self pres

[Conquestor he/him]

@JNV

Look, don't do it for the self save! Here... 

TUN hasn't done anything today but wizard has made weird plays and has given no explanation, so I say we vote for him! Don't just murder Dan! 

Wizard

All those that want Dan to live, join me! 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

While I agree they are good points and that Archer could very well be Archer. Is there anything particular about JNV that you find weird? 

I did find their first post a little weird, but I was mostly waiting for them to post again. 

I do like this post. Seems less suspicious to me.

JNV to Kasimir

[danex he/him]

Danex (3): Archer, bookworm, JNV
Conquestor (1): Kas,
JNV (1): Danex
Araris (1): Mat
TWW (1): Conquestor
Kas (1): SS

3 minutes left

I'm claiming messenger

i can prove this next cycle by revealing the contents of someones PM
tell me who you have a PM with and ill tell you the contents.

[JNV]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

TUN hasn't done anything today but wizard has made weird plays and has given no explanation, so I say we vote for him! Don't just murder Dan! 

Wizard

All those that want Dan to live, join me! 

Would you be willing to go for Shining Silhouette for vote volitility and no reasons to be found

[Archer he/him]

Turns out Symph is voting. But Wizard isn't, so they'll have their vote moved instead. I put it on someone I suspect

[danex he/him]

TWW

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, dannnnnnex said:

I'm claiming messenger

i can prove this next cycle by revealing the contents of someones PM
tell me who you have a PM with and ill tell you the contents.

Read Kas and I's.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

[Conquestor he/him]

Wait... 

Save Dan! Vote for Wizard's weird votes! 

@dannnnnnex Vote for wizard as everyone else has left the JNV train! @Matrim's Dice I think you thought that Wizard was being weird and I think we

Just now, JNV said:

Would you be willing to go for Shining Silhouette for vote volitility and no reasons to be found

Actually, yes, I could go for that, but they are super new and so I would like to hear more from them. 

[Mat he/him]

I leave for five minutes —

No time to figure out what happened, let the votes fall where they do :P.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Conquestor said:

Wait... 

Save Dan! Vote for Wizard's weird votes! 

@dannnnnnex Vote for wizard as everyone else has left the JNV train! @Matrim's Dice I think you thought that Wizard was being weird and I think we

Actually, yes, I could go for that, but they are super new and so I would like to hear more from them. 

I do have my reasons, and I can do an explanation next cycle. I just wanted to get my votes in before time

[Conquestor he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I leave for five minutes —

No time to figure out what happened, let the votes fall where they do :P.

SAVE DAN! PLEASE! 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

“Finrod was with Turgon, his friend; but Galadriel, the only woman of the Noldor to stand that day tall and valiant among the commanding princes, was eager to be gone. No oaths she swore, but the words of Feanor concerning Middle-earth had kindled in her heart, for she yearned to see the wide unguarded lands and to rule there a realm at her own will.” J.R.R. Tolkien, The Silmarillion, “Of the Flight of the Noldor”

Ere Manwe was aware, the peace of Valinor was poisoned. The Noldor began to murmur against him, questioning why he had set Melkor to roam free. A smaller number still sued for his clemency, and even the Valar began to speak out. At the festival Nienna proclaimed the imprisonment of the greatest of the Ainur a failure, reasoning with surprising fervour that his time in the fastness of Mandos had served only to further the corruption of his mind. Tulkas spoke mildly against her, but being overruled by the other voices, he held his words and his fists until such a time as the Enemy should reveal himself more openly.

Then Feanor, moved by the spirit within him, stirred the Noldor with passionate speech, invoking the destruction of the lamps and the past misdeeds of their old foe. ‘Why indeed, O Noldoli,’ he cried, ‘should we suffer that Melkor, who has ever given us naught but betrayal and sorrow, roam free about these lands, guised in fair-seeming speech? Is it not for his sake that my father cannot join the great feasts of our people, that he watches with sleepless eye over our fastness at Formenos where our greatest works and treasures lie hidden; that our people are stirred to bitter words and self-ruin? Should we not seek him out and put an end to him? Yet the Valar would have us remain in their girdle, while he roams free.’ 

Thus spoke Feanor in the presence of all, and his indomitable will, fearing not the wrath of Vala or Noldor or creature foul or fair, was such that the Noldor were put to shame, and stirred in their hearts to the commitment of the end of Melkor’s reign. Yet in his words Feanor could find naught but zeal to unite them; and so it was that soon the debate of the Elves turned to factions and dissension. Mandos and Varda looked on, silent, as each brought forward one whom they found suspicious, and ultimately Galadriel of the house of Finarfin was chosen. Desire she had to see the broader lands of Middle-earth, much as Feanor did, yet unlike her cousin she had not yet the words to drive her fellow princes to reason and action. So Mandos took her to himself; and in the depths of the Mountain she dwelt, till the Enemy came forth openly once more.

---

The Wandering Wizard (Galadriel) was Faithful!

Vote Count:

Wizard (2)

Dannex (2)

Araris (2)

Kas (1)

TUN (1)

Cycle Two has begun! It will end in 22.5 hours, at 10:00 PM EDT on Tuesday 6 September. Get votes and actions in!

Action results are going out shortly. PMs are still open. There is still an exe today.

Good luck!

Player List:

1. The Unknown Novel as Aegnor, son of Finarfin

2. Araris Valerian as Findor, star-watcher and boat-builder

3. Matrim's Dice as TBD

4. Shining Silhouette as Sircyn, son of Tellyn

5. JNV as Menelir of the Sea and Sky, a concerned wanderer

6. Conquestor as Sethryn, son of the Rememberer

7. The Wandering Wizard as TBD Galadriel

8. da[n=??]ex as TBD

9. Devotary of Spontaneity as Nienna, a Vala committed to criminal justice reform

10. SymphonianBookworm as TBD

11. Archer as Tarell the Toothsayer

12. Kasimir as Tulkas the Valiant

Edited September 6, 2022 by Fifth Scholar

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Vote Count:

Wizard (2)

Dannex (2)

Araris (2)

Kas (1)

The hell.

AFAIK, this should be:

Quote

Wiz (2): Danex, Conq
Danex (2): Wiz, Archer
Shining (1): JNV
Kas (1): Shining
Araris (1): Mat
TUN (1): Araris
Conq (1): Kas

As far as I can work out, this is the delta:

Quote

Wiz (2): Danex, Conq
Danex (2): Wiz, Archer
Shining (1): JNV
Kas (1): Shining
Araris (1): Mat
TUN (1): Araris
Conq (1): Kas

Three bolded votes disappeared, the italicised vote was likely added to. Unclear if this was Archer's action. Gemstones can affect vote-related actions but not votes, so that's fun.

Noble action or potential jewel here - did anyone ( @JNV, @Araris Valerian) receive a jewel? I've not (yet?) received any message about my receiving a jewel, so if true, this means that Conq cannot be Melkor (barring some universe in which either of us is Melkor and the other one is converted.) 

Forgot this is a 24-hour cycle, not 48 hours >> I guess my brain still favours MRs and LGs. I didn't get to finish my longpost before EoD and should've realised the need to check the vote state, but oh well. I'm going to paste everything I was working on not because it was especially enlightening but because I am offended by the idea my effort was wasted otherwise.

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...The Messenger is village, for sure, I think. At least right now. Unless Melkor can have another role? Or do you just mean, for the game, in general, since conversions :P.

Basically. We have no idea who Melkor will hit but I want to keep live the possibility that anyone can get hit, including a Messenger, unless Fingolfin happens to be a very good goalkeeper  

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's essentially what I came to, yeah. Play it normal. There isn't a complete downside to Finwe dying, but I think if there's an argument not to purposefully out them it's that it wouldn't be very nice to just hand him over to Melkor so we could get our Silmarils :P.

I wouldn't say complete downside, but I think it's useful to be able to rule someone out of both the Melkor and convert suspect pools (which are of necessity separate) so to that extent, I think that killing Finwe is info-denial. That being said, I don't particularly care too much, as I expect both Finwe (in extremis) and Sailors to be some of the more popular fakeclaims, especially since Melkor and Convert will need more innocuous claims. (Melkor might go for Smith I suppose.)

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Mostly because I want to know who plans on doing that even if they only get around to making a couple of them and I'm not included in that batch. Mat announced it, who else is taking that risk and why? 

Okay, fair.

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Hence why I said near tie. Worst case scenario for them is they miss their chance to convert and get exed C2, but if they can put it off, they better their ability to mess with our reads in the back half of the game. So my intention is to make the risk seem too worth the reward of putting it off. If they even have one vote and there's some unpredictable villagers on at EOD who might bring them into the lead/signals they'll pursue them tomorrow as a suspect, then I think they'll use their conversion. 

/shrug at the majority of this in that I have no strong disagreements or agreements, but I do agree on the bolded bit - our reads are at risk of being unstable so long as we cannot confirm a conversion has taken place, so in a way, getting rid of that ASAP is better for us, and allows us to do our job properly. (Though our best case scenario is if Melkor burns a convert on Finwe or someone whom Fingolfin is protecting.)

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I did correctly identify e!Kas that one time

Not to diminish your thunder a little, but I don't think there has been a game in which E!me hasn't been gutted off the bat. Ask Joe and Macen and Stick I have theories about why but they're not really relevant here and now, but also Melkor, I'm not interested, I hate conversion games, no thank you.

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So... why are we strategizing for Melkor, that seems generally unhelpful for the village xD I get knowing what they're gonna do is helpful to us, but thinking we know and being wrong is pretty much the worst so I'd rather stay off the topic and let them try to figure it out :P.

Yes and no. But you might remember MR53 here

8 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

As a person who is currently reading the Silmarillion, punch people, don't trust Melkor, punch some more people, and party.

*punches the air* AWWW YEAH THE PARTY TRUCK'S IN TOWN

*slaps truck*

THIS THING CAN FIT SO MUCH PARTY INSIDE

Unless you're Melkor.

I don't trust you if you're Melkor.

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I feel like Gandalf after Frodo chose to go through Moria .

These words are accepted.

....I hate multiquoting I hate multiquoting I HATE MULTIQUOTING WHY.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Storms. The vote on TUN should still be there. Other than that it should be fine. Sorry about that, carry on >>

[Mat he/him]

Hmm. I’ll probably need to reread EoD a couple times to make sense of it—

A few million dollar questions:

No kill; does that mean (in order if my personal ranking of likeliness) a conversion? An attempted and failed conversion? A blocked kill? Melkor creating an item? Misdirection? Maybe switch the second and third there, idk 

Do we take the tie at face value or is Araris or Dannex actually Melkor? Either way there was a coin flip. I doubt this is worth pursuing. Do we know how the VC ended up like that, does it make sense? I think this proves Archer’s role, but as this game is awesome that isn’t a guarantee of alignment anymore >>

And I guess Wiz flipped vanilla. For some reason it didn’t occur to me that was an option.

Dannex, any messages to report?

@Kasimir on mobile so quoting is undesirable but does notMelkor!Conq still stand with Fifth’s correction? Also, it went over my head why that was a thing anyway. Just because he had to be the reason the votes disappeared?

And you can say you’re always immediately caught as elim but it still felt good  And besides, I’d be careful mentioning that when I know of three people who have separately admitted suspicion of you  

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Storms. The vote on TUN should still be there. Other than that it should be fine. Sorry about that, carry on >>

Okay, then

@JNV, have you, perchance, obtained a jewel?  

Mat. I felt the shift on me given I did nothing but sleep felt as though he was waiting for someone to suggest suspicion then opportunistically riding it.

From last cycle: general NFCs reads still (JNV: NFC = No Frickin' Clue) until I can get closely caught up, had mild sus of Conq which is sharply receding in light of his EoD 'Save Danex' movement and the fact that I received no Jewel (I accept the Jewel point only exonerates potentially of being Melkor; it doesn't mean he can't have been converted.) Still very mildly positive on Devo due to the fact I cannot see her playing this aggressively when Evil - she is extremely flexible in terms of playstyle so I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but I feel her Elim play thus far leans more reactive.

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I guess Wiz flipped vanilla. For some reason it didn’t occur to me that was an option.

 

Fifth is saying he flipped Galadriel and Faithful-aligned Galadriel. V!Galadriel. Galadriel protects. My brothers in the Village this was not a good result >>

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Kasimir on mobile so quoting is undesirable but does notMelkor!Conq still stand with Fifth’s correction? Also, it went over my head why that was a thing anyway. Just because he had to be the reason the votes disappeared?

 

Only one role in this game can swap votes, and that's the Orator. The Orator can only change a no vote to a vote. No other item or role in this game shifts votes. Everything else removes votes. Only two ways to remove a vote in this game: you are a Noble, or you used a Jewel. So either Conq is a Noble, or he used a Jewel on me, giving it to me, in order to remove my vote on him.

I did not receive a Jewel. Therefore, Conq is a Noble. And while he could very well have been converted, he cannot be Melkor. Melkor is only Melkor. ( @Fifth Scholar please confirm Melkor can have no other role I'm getting paranoid now, kthx.)

The TUN point doesn't change much, it does mean we can't apply the same line of reasoning to TUN but oh well >> I'd be interested if JNV received a Jewel because if they did, this could help clear Shining from our Melkor pool (yes, I know Shining made an uncontested Feanor claim, but.)

I don't know if it proves Archer's role, FYI. The vote manip Archer claimed he would do wasn't legal anyway.

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No kill; does that mean (in order if my personal ranking of likeliness) a conversion? An attempted and failed conversion? A blocked kill? Melkor creating an item? Misdirection? Maybe switch the second and third there, idk 

I'd lean conversion. Possible attempted and failed, yes, blocked kill should still be reported (if protect, I suppose - @Fifth Scholar?) I am surprised that our Feanor claimant hasn't been targeted, but Feanor could be a good conversion or kill target so either way, wouldn't say Shining is out of the woods just yet.

Edited to add:

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And besides, I’d be careful mentioning that when I know of three people who have separately admitted suspicion of you  

Doesn't hurt. It's interesting to see if anyone's keen to pile on opportunistically, do vote pool analysis for Melkor, and I've always been fine with dying if my flip gives the Village more info to work with  

Edited September 6, 2022 by Kasimir

[JNV]

Just now, Kasimir said:

@JNV, have you, perchance, obtained a jewel?  

No jewel

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I did not receive a Jewel. Therefore, Conq is a Noble. And while he could very well have been converted, he cannot be Melkor. Melkor is only Melkor. ( @Fifth Scholar please confirm Melkor can have no other role I'm getting paranoid now, kthx.)

Im not Fifth but heres the thing people can have two roles and when I asked fifth about if Melkor could I got a PAFO so... yeah we cant trust roleclears entirely 

On the topic of confirmable role actions Im assuming Archer did the Araris vote thing unless anyone wants to counter that 

The issue with analysis of the first cycle is everyones alone so all actions kinda have the same motivation of find and vote suspicious looking people while also not looking too suspicious to stay alive longer so Im just going to look at it by notable player and give mostly wobbled thoguhts of a tired brain

The Unknown Novle is funnily enough just an unknown that Ill always suspect and Im trying to figure that out honestly but for now just a blob of confusion but do note that theyre not a great conversion target 

Shining Silhouette has felt wobbly cause of the shifting votes but honestly I dont feel like they fit my constructed profile for Melkor which might not be a great way to go suspicion wise honestly

Conquestors whole save dan+ex thing seems unMelkorlike 

Ok going to sleep now bye

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My brothers in the Village

Your brothers in Eru?  

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Melkor is only Melkor. ( @Fifth Scholar please confirm Melkor can have no other role I'm getting paranoid now, kthx.)

 

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

blocked kill should still be reported (if protect, I suppose - @Fifth Scholar?)

blocked kills are reported, yes

[Mat he/him]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Mat. I felt the shift on me given I did nothing but sleep felt as though he was waiting for someone to suggest suspicion then opportunistically riding it.

Interesting overexaggeration of my progression you have there :P.

1. This isn't a new thing, I've mentioned in PMs to people feeling ehish about you, along with that I'd rather not explore that D1 and just that in general I like to solve you later game. You know, for paranoia reasons. But I didn't come out of the blue and decide to push you, I'm not even pushing you:
2. This isn't even really a thing. I offhandedly mentioned it in thread, I think (?) once last turn, and then just in joking right now. No opportunistic anything, or this would be a push. And like, weak point, but cmon why would e!me knowingly push v!you, that's most certainly not the easiest path forward  
3. Am I not allowed to reread your posts and reconsider while you're asleep? Can I only get reads off of new content as it is put out?

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fifth is saying he flipped Galadriel and Faithful-aligned Galadriel. V!Galadriel. Galadriel protects. My brothers in the Village this was not a good result >>

...Yeah don't mind my brain just skipping over the part where it says 'Galadriel' and just going to the green 'Faithful' :P. I get it now >>

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Only two ways to remove a vote in this game: you are a Noble, or you used a Jewel. So either Conq is a Noble, or he used a Jewel on me, giving it to me, in order to remove my vote on him. I did not receive a Jewel. Therefore, Conq is a Noble.

I'd be interested if JNV received a Jewel because if they did, this could help clear Shining from our Melkor pool (yes, I know Shining made an uncontested Feanor claim, but.)

I don't know if it proves Archer's role, FYI. The vote manip Archer claimed he would do wasn't legal anyway.

I see, thanks.

Bookworm claimed Feanor, not Shining. I think.

I guess I just saw that Archer said he'd move a vote to Araris, and there it is.

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Doesn't hurt. It's interesting to see if anyone's keen to pile on opportunistically, do vote pool analysis for Melkor, and I've always been fine with dying if my flip gives the Village more info to work with  

I'd be interested to see you attempt that given that I usually like to do VC analysis to find links between teammates, but I know we approach VC analysis very differently  

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Double ninja'd

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

1. Am I not allowed to reread your posts and reconsider while you're asleep? Can I only get reads off of new content as it is put out?

This was why it felt opportunistic: because there was no progression I could see. Because you were basically: "gut village but paranoia" (reasonable), waited for Danex to say something, then suddenly "actually I feel gut eh." That's as compatible with rethinking (good) as it is with being opportunistic and waiting to jump in after someone else had said it (bad.) My point about sleeping isn't about you not being able to reconsider when I'm sleeping, it's the fact that because I was sleeping I was not putting out new content.

So if there is no new content, where does this come from? Where is the inciting difference as far as you have shown other than someone saying they had an eh feeling about me, and you suddenly deciding you did as well?

Your point about easier routes for E!you than pushing V!me is precisely why I wanted to pressure you about this, FWIW. Because I do think this is why the more strategic way is to let another player do it, and which is why I don't particularly care about everyone else not you in this context  I have absolutely no issue about Danex gut reading me negatively, I just did not like seeing a switch without a sense of what is behind it, so of course I have to push you about it :eyes: 

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Bookworm claimed Feanor, not Shining. I think.

RIP, thanks.

I'm going to lean single role unless proven otherwise. It's true of Danex's claim, Archer's claim, Bookworm's claim, and certainly as far as I can tell, of my own GM PM. Double role is very rare and the last time this happened was in Tani's QF at the start of this year, which I wouldn't take to be standard. I can see Fifth PAFOing because he doesn't want to put Melkor at a disadvantage by confirming there can only be one role. Given we should be able to narrow down on Melkor with reasonable speed, I am fine narrowing the pool, keeping in mind this assumption can be fallible, and then revising if we have reason to believe this doesn't make sense.

Of the current Melkor pool:

Strictly speaking: <TUN, Araris, Mat, JNV, Danex, Devo, Bookworm, Archer, Kas.>

Removed Conq and Shining for mechanical reasons - likely Nobles. I leave myself inside as a courtesy but obviously won't be regarding myself as a serious starter.

I lean very lightly Village on Devo, and I think JNV makes a good point that if there is no counterclaim, then the Orator move basically has to be Archer's one way or another. Bookworm's Feanor claim has not been contested. I guess I'll leave Devo in there for the moment. But @dannnnnnex, any way of confirming you retrieved my message and Devo's? If we clear Danex as well, we're left with:

<TUN, Araris, Mat, JNV, Devo, Kas>

Of this pool, I'm provisionally leaning more to TUN and Araris, no real read on JNV, and my vote won't kill you anytime soon Mat  

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'd be interested to see you attempt that given that I usually like to do VC analysis to find links between teammates, but I know we approach VC analysis very differently  

There shouldn't be too much of a teammate link in this case. I really have the MR53 case powerfully in mind this game since the dynamic was very largely similar, and as Melkor is still a bit fragile, I judge that there's the usual "where do you want to appear in the batch of 'people prosecuting a bad lynch' problem. It won't be definitive, it's just got to be conditional profiling, adjust as you go, and so on.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So we have claims that both Shining and Conq are nobles? Nothing could have added the extra vote but an Orator and I don't see a non-Archer player doing that to mess up his proof. With Symph's Feanor claim that I can't imagine Melkor doing because it's so easily proven that leaves 1. The Unknown Novel 2. Araris Valerian 3. Matrim's Dice 5. JNV 8. da[n=??]ex 12. Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This was why it felt opportunistic: because there was no progression I could see. Because you were basically: "gut village but paranoia" (reasonable), waited for Danex to say something, then suddenly "actually I feel gut eh." That's as compatible with rethinking (good) as it is with being opportunistic and waiting to jump in after someone else had said it (bad.) My point about sleeping isn't about you not being able to reconsider when I'm sleeping, it's the fact that because I was sleeping I was not putting out new content.

I didn't post the progression because I figured I could revisit it later :P. Which maybe was a mistake, but it wasn't a huge case or anything. Just that I reskimmed the thread and noticed a few things I maybe could put my finger on, but maybe not.

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So if there is no new content, where does this come from? Where is the inciting difference as far as you have shown other than someone saying they had an eh feeling about me, and you suddenly deciding you did as well?

My rereading and quiet decision? Dunno what you want me to say here, I didn't write a post about it since I didn't think it was worth the time yet. It became worth mentioning when it became apparent I wasn't the only one. This reasoning doesn't hold because it shuts down the world where I reread, reconsidered, and held the thought. Which I do quite a lot, actually, in every game.

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

my vote won't kill you anytime soon Mat  

I know, but you know me  >>

Off to bed, will reread tomorrow (mostly EoD) and come with a newer reads list. I guess focusing on the pool of 6 possible Melkors we have out there, though technically it's possible that Melkor has a role.