Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[Conquestor he/him]

Yes I am a noble, but I was trying to hold off on that so I could help hide more useful roles. I am sorry Wizard, you just didn't do anything and I felt pretty good about Dan being vil. It would also make sense that Shining is also a noble which means that he can't be Melkor. I would bet on that because I don't think there are starting items... at least I didn't start with one. 

That EoD was so chaotic and @Kasimir it was SymphonianBookworm who claimed to be Feanor, not Shining. Speaking of which. @dannnnnnex Did you get your promised item from Symphonian?

I agree that the fact that there was no kill is ominous... too ominous. 

43 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No kill; does that mean (in order if my personal ranking of likeliness) a conversion? An attempted and failed conversion? A blocked kill? Melkor creating an item? Misdirection? Maybe switch the second and third there, idk 

Do we take the tie at face value or is Araris or Dannex actually Melkor? Either way there was a coin flip. I doubt this is worth pursuing. Do we know how the VC ended up like that, does it make sense? I think this proves Archer’s role, but as this game is awesome that isn’t a guarantee of alignment anymore >>

I agree with your personal ordering of likeliness. I do want to do a little more thorough of a run through though.

The world of Conversion:

I could really see him convert if he was Araris or Dan because they were on the chopping block and any last minute actions could have spelled their doom. The other option is that he was really lonely and wanted a teammate/worried about future action blocks.

Melkor submits his conversion target and hits Finwe. If this is the case then it is likely they will get killed at the end of this cycle from the Melkorkill. The only other way that Melkor could fail in his conversion is if he hit someone that Fingolfin whispered to. I would also expect this person to die at the end of the cycle to the Melkorkill just in case it is Finwe.

Melkor submits his conversion target and hits literally anyone else. They join his team and we can begin to look for e/e interactions. In this world I could see Mat, Shining, Archer, Devo, Symphonian, Kasimir, JNV, and TUN. This is because Melkor wouldn't want his convert to have a chance of dying in the three way tie.

The world of the Melkorkill:

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

blocked kills are reported, yes

Doesn't exist.

Now that I've gone through the options, I think that it is most likely that Melkor spent his action crafting so that he can play mind games with us and see what we do. This would also give himself item actions. Even more diabolical, he could've smithed something and gave it to someone! This way he could gain the trust of a player.... maybe.

 

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm going to lean single role unless proven otherwise. It's true of Danex's claim, Archer's claim, Bookworm's claim, and certainly as far as I can tell, of my own GM PM. Double role is very rare and the last time this happened was in Tani's QF at the start of this year, which I wouldn't take to be standard. I can see Fifth PAFOing because he doesn't want to put Melkor at a disadvantage by confirming there can only be one role. Given we should be able to narrow down on Melkor with reasonable speed, I am fine narrowing the pool, keeping in mind this assumption can be fallible, and then revising if we have reason to believe this doesn't make sense.

There shouldn't be too much of a teammate link in this case. I really have the MR53 case powerfully in mind this game since the dynamic was very largely similar, and as Melkor is still a bit fragile, I judge that there's the usual "where do you want to appear in the batch of 'people prosecuting a bad lynch' problem. It won't be definitive, it's just got to be conditional profiling, adjust as you go, and so on.

I'm just going to say this and hopefully help someone much more experienced than I am. I am a Noble, but I am also a Son of Feanor. Given that there is only 1 conversion. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Melkor actually had another role such as Noble, Sailor, or Orator. This would greatly balance out having only one conversion in my own eyes. Also, if Melkor was a Orator, he would have 4 role actions he would have to choose from and if he had to prove himself to use the action... he couldn't have done anything else. Among other things. There seems to be only one Orator because there were four non voters and only one of them was moved. Given that there are only 11 roles and that there are 12 of us, I question whether there is only one Orator or if there are more...

@Fifth Scholar What happens when two Orators target the same person to try and move their vote?

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My rereading and quiet decision? Dunno what you want me to say here, I didn't write a post about it since I didn't think it was worth the time yet. It became worth mentioning when it became apparent I wasn't the only one. This reasoning doesn't hold because it shuts down the world where I reread, reconsidered, and held the thought. Which I do quite a lot, actually, in every game.

Mostly I see something that doesn't ping right and then apply pressure to see what comes out, rather than wanting you to say something, so this works  

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I know, but you know me  >>

Fine, Mat  

JNV. I'm conflicted about this - I think JNV is the sort of player attentive to detail enough to ask about the possibility of dual roles, but this is also something that is very much not a default setting in SE, and seldom-asked. I do also think that Melkor might very well benefit from/want to buy more time with the ambiguity of whether we can really narrow down on a Melkor suspect pool or not.

I do need to look at vote progression/shifts eventually.

FWIW I do think Melkor will obviously not claim Melkor - Melkor will claim a non-provable role or a provable one like Smith (which Devo has forestalled) so either way, we will be going in the approximately right direction anyway.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

I'm just going to say this and hopefully help someone much more experienced than I am. I am a Noble, but I am also a Son of Feanor. Given that there is only 1 conversion. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Melkor actually had another role such as Noble, Sailor, or Orator. This would greatly balance out having only one conversion in my own eyes. Also, if Melkor was a Orator, he would have 4 role actions he would have to choose from and if he had to prove himself to use the action... he couldn't have done anything else. Among other things. There seems to be only one Orator because there were four non voters and only one of them was moved. Given that there are only 11 roles and that there are 12 of us, I question whether there is only one Orator or if there are more...

Nevermind, then. Hmm.

JNV

Kas

Edited September 6, 2022 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Right, I forgot, no editing votes in a post even though we live dangerously these days.

@Fifth Scholar: JNV, Kas

If you would like a PM, I suggest you send me one because I have been living in terrible solitary deprivation and I am beginning to sympathise with Melkor's sentence of solitary imprisonment (MELKOR! *clenches fists angrily*)

Edited September 6, 2022 by Kasimir
justification

[danex he/him]

I didn't have time to switch my action to a Kas/Devo PM, that EoD was very chaotic

I can tell you that Mat and Araris do not have a PM.
I was hoping that I would be conf-vil, at least for this cycle, because of my Messenger claim, but with the reveal that people can have more than one role, I guess that doesn't fly. I am claiming that I am a messenger and only a messenger btw. 
I also did not receive an item from Bookworm. Not sure what to think about that. 

Do we think Melkor used their one conversion? I would assume so, it's what I would've done. 

If I was melkor, I would try and convert the very strong role of Feanor
so uh
Symphonain Bookworm

Edited September 6, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Forgot this is a 24-hour cycle, not 48 hours >> I guess my brain still favours MRs and LGs. I didn't get to finish my longpost before EoD and should've realised the need to check the vote state, but oh well. I'm going to paste everything I was working on not because it was especially enlightening but because I am offended by the idea my effort was wasted otherwise.

I know the pain of both of those. I had my rules analysis ready to post when cycle closed.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And you can say you’re always immediately caught as elim but it still felt good  And besides, I’d be careful mentioning that when I know of three people who have separately admitted suspicion of you  

I'd feel good too, but I got completely pocketed by Kas a few turns later. 

31 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn't post the progression because I figured I could revisit it later :P. Which maybe was a mistake, but it wasn't a huge case or anything. Just that I reskimmed the thread and noticed a few things I maybe could put my finger on, but maybe not.

My rereading and quiet decision? Dunno what you want me to say here, I didn't write a post about it since I didn't think it was worth the time yet. It became worth mentioning when it became apparent I wasn't the only one. This reasoning doesn't hold because it shuts down the world where I reread, reconsidered, and held the thought. Which I do quite a lot, actually, in every game.

I know, but you know me  >>

Off to bed, will reread tomorrow (mostly EoD) and come with a newer reads list. I guess focusing on the pool of 6 possible Melkors we have out there, though technically it's possible that Melkor has a role.

This feels like v!Mat to me.

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Right, I forgot, no editing votes in a post even though we live dangerously these days.

@Fifth Scholar: JNV, Kas

If you would like a PM, I suggest you send me one because I have been living in terrible solitary deprivation and I am beginning to sympathise with Melkor's sentence of solitary imprisonment (MELKOR! *clenches fists angrily*)

What do you mean about living dangerously?

I'd send you one, but then I'd be breaking the rules. Sorry. 

Rules analysis I've been promising:

Spoiler

24-hour combined cycles. Every cycle, there is an exe, and the player with the most votes is imprisoned. Ties are determined randomly.

Standard. Nothing of note.

PMs are open, one-on-one only, so long as a Messenger is alive. This will be announced in the writeup.

I'm not sure if it's in the elims best interests to kill, convert, or leave alone the messenger. Conversion means spying, and PMs stay open, which allows both pocketing and town cores. The Finwe search is helped by PM spying and PMs being present. Finwe can still reply to PMs however, so maybe not hindered all that much. Also, it may be hard to scan, since the kill will need to be sent in. Killing means no PMs, which means no town core, nor pocketing, if it happens early, it also hinders the search for Finwe.

Two-cycle inactivity filter. You must post to evade the filter. 

Also standard. 

Players may take one role action and one item action per cycle.

Interesting. Not many for sure implications though.

If a player dies, his items go to an Heir designated in the GM PM (this is a free action). If a player has not declared an Heir, the items are randomly redistributed. Items must be Heired collectively.

Everyone should be making Heirs, I forgot to c1 because I forgot about this role, but it is a free action a lowers the chance of items getting into elim hands.

A player may hold at most two items. (Silmarils do not count against this limit.) Extra items are lost.

What does lost mean @Fifth Scholar, do they disappear from the game, go to a random person, or to whoever originally had them somehow. 

Factions:

The Faithful: Believe that the Valar have been just and fair rulers for the Noldoli, and that the Elves should enjoy their governance in the Blessed Realm. Win by imprisoning Melkor and any Corrupted.

 

Melkor and the Corrupted: Wish to see the Eldar sundered from the Valar, and from the peace they enjoy in Valinor. Covet the Silmarils. Win by outnumbering the Faithful.

Outnumber is interesting, it wouldn't matter either way, but it will if he get a Helm block or cycles without a kill or convert.

12, 11 c1, 9 c2, 7 c3, 5 c4, 3 c5, 1 c6 and Corrupted win.

Roles:

Melkor: The only starting player in his faction. Possesses X conversions (which may be used as role actions), C1 exe immunity, and the following abilities:

 

Kill: Melkor may target a player and kill him. This ability is lost after his first conversion, and becomes the faction kill of the Corrupted.

 

Craft: May create a Helm, Sword, or two Trinkets. This ability is lost after his second conversion, as the second converted player immediately gains the Smith role.

Melkor never gets a second conversion, so they will always be able to make items. The two Trinkets is powerful because a knife can steal or (depending on the earlier question) erase an item from the game, a jewel vote manips, a Gemstone can steal items from a Smith or redirect a Galadriel protect (dead). A carving is good for gambits but has little help otherwise.

Cunning: Cannot be jailed by a tied exe. Is lost after his third conversion, or his second if he has only 2.

If I'm reading this right, Melkor will never die to a tied exe, because he only has one. Which makes sense but also doesn't. 

Finwe: Cannot be converted or protected. When Finwe is killed or imprisoned, the Silmarils enter the game. Finwe may not create PMs.

Something a lot of people seem to have failed to realize is that Finwe can respond to PMs, so the PM scanner can act as a spoof Finwe scanner and that claiming PMs is slightly less dangerous. Also, Melkor will probably not want to PM anybody so they can clear more people as sending them PMs. 

Feanor: The master craftsman of the Noldor, the Spirit of Fire, maker of the Silmarils which now lie locked in Formenos. Every cycle, may craft a Fell Sword, Sword, Shield, Helm, or Trinket, and give it to himself or another player. 

Basically a much better Smith. Would be a really bad convert for the village, since he can technically kill a player every other cycle in addition to the normal kill.

Son of Feanor: May use the killing potential of the Fell Sword. If one Son of Feanor holds a Silmaril, all Sons of Feanor in the game enter a group PM, which is immune to spying.

Not sure how useful a group doc will be. Otherwise, maybe claim c3 or 40ish since Melkor will probably have already used their convert and Feanor can toss you the Fell Sword.

Fingolfin: More soft-spoken than his half-brother, he may target one other player each cycle and convince him to hold firm to the Valar, protecting him from Melkor’s conversion. Cannot target the same player twice in a row.

@Fifth, does this waste or conversion, or can Melkor use it again.

Galadriel: Fiery and independent, yet sympathetic to Feanor. May protect another player on odd-numbered cycles, and item-scan another player on even-numbered cycles.

Dead.

Smith: Each cycle, may fashion a Shield, Helm, or Trinket for any player. If a Smith attempts to fashion a Sword, he has only a 60% chance of success.

Helms and Shields are probably way to go here. Helm to self first then Shield to yourself and all your trusts.

Sailor: Possesses an extra life.

Not much to say here, I doubt more than two, probably only one so it isn't too likely that they get converted and unbalance stuff. I think they are probably a large reason why Melkor only has one convert. Them and Feanor.

Noble: Well regarded among the Noldoli, these Elves have a vote removed from them each exe.

Orator: May choose one player each cycle who has not voted and move his vote to a player.

Not much to say for these two, both vote manips, so not very good for us if they get converted. 

Messenger: While this role is alive, PMs are open. Each cycle, the Messenger may target two players and read their PM conversation, if one exists. Doing so will alert them that they were spied upon, and render any of their future communication unreadable.

Like I said already, spoof Finwe scanner, not much use otherwise, especially for the village.

Items:

Shield: A player using a Shield may target a player and protect him from all Sword and Fell Sword attacks. Sadly, this offers only 40% effective protection against the Corrupted kill. Cannot be used to guard the same player twice in a row.

Better for the elims because of 40% chance, but also unlikely to be used much by them since action economy with only two players.

Helm: Passive immunity to a Knife or Sword attack. If a Helm blocks a Sword attack, it breaks.

Not much, pretty good item to have. Smiths should probably make it first. 

Sword: A player holding a Sword may target another player and item-block him. Once per game, he may instead action-block another player.

Not sure how useful an item block is, although the action block can stop the kill. @Fifth, is it once per player, item, or both?

Fell Sword: Feanor has perfected the craftsmanship of these swords. A player holding a Fell-Sword may target another player and action-block that player. Once per game, if the holder is Feanor or a Son of Feanor, he may kill another player.

Per player per item is pretty powerful. Action block is very nice for blocking the kill.

Silmaril: Each Silmaril held by a player increases his vote strength by one. 

@Fifth, three Silmarils, correct? And will each go to a different person, true random, or the same player?

Trinket: A small, one-use item. A d4 is rolled when a Trinket is created, and the player receives:

 

Knife. Stab a player, stealing a random item from him. The Knife is dropped and destroyed.

Very good for the elims, not super good for the village though. 

Jewel: Bribe a player, negating his vote. That player receives the Jewel.

Also good for elims, but it can be used just as well by a villager.

Carving: Add an anonymous message to the cycle’s writeup.

Not sure how well this will work, maybe Galadriel could claim item scan, but not much otherwise. 

Gemstone: Redirect another player’s actions to yourself. The gem is lost after this action.

Pretty useful for a Sailor to tank the kill, but other than that, it's only really good for the elims to steal items from the Smith and Feanor.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

I'd send you one, but then I'd be breaking the rules. Sorry. 

TUN.

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

What do you mean about living dangerously?

Nowadays, we tend to edit votes in anyway, and then just @ the GM. This is technically not allowed and El gets grumpy everytime this happens.

-

My current theory is that if any roles are doubled, it's 'Sons of Feanor' as they are essentially a micro-faction and glorified PM group that can kill once if given a Fell Sword and that's it. In that sense, it reminds me of Fifth's Synod mechanic in the Terris LG we GMed. I do lean lightly against Melkor having the Noble role if there is a double - I think that this gives Melkor a bit too much vote survivability, given Melkor also has perma-Cunning. It is possible that the C1 exe survivability got nuked because Melkor might also actually be a Sailor, though quite honestly if I were Melkor and facing an exe, I might fakeclaim Sailor anyway.

Smith is not a portfolio that Melkor has reason to have, and fakeclaiming Smith can hurt Melkor. This leaves us with possible duplicates of Orator, Messenger, or as per my theory, Son of Feanor.

Fingolfin isn't impossible if Fifth really, really hates us, same with Feanor. 

[danex he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I do lean lightly against Melkor having the Noble role if there is a double - I think that this gives Melkor a bit too much vote survivability, given Melkor also has perma-Cunning. It is possible that the C1 exe survivability got nuked because Melkor might also actually be a Sailor, though quite honestly if I were Melkor and facing an exe,

this might be suicide to say, but if i was GMing this game, I'd probably set up Messenger!Melkor
That way if melkor is the first of 2 elims to die, the village gets a handicap of no longer having PMs while hunting down the remaining (converted) elim. 

If we find a second messenger i am putting a lot of suspicion on them.

Edited September 6, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[The Unknown Order he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

TUN.

Nowadays, we tend to edit votes in anyway, and then just @ the GM. This is technically not allowed and El gets grumpy everytime this happens.

That feels like an overreaction, but OK. 

...I did not know that. Thought that was a legitimate part of the rules. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, dannnnnnex said:

this might be suicide to say, but if i was GMing this game, I'd probably set up Messenger!Melkor
That way if melkor is the first of 2 elims to die, the village gets a handicap of no longer having PMs while hunting down the remaining (converted) elim. 

Yeah, it's why I'm leaving that possibility open. Noble is less likely, but the rest are all possible, Feanor is sadism, and Fingolfin is basically a question of how much Fifth wants us to deal with Seeker shenanigans in different form all over again.

8 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Finwe: Cannot be converted or protected. When Finwe is killed or imprisoned, the Silmarils enter the game. Finwe may not create PMs.

Something a lot of people seem to have failed to realize is that Finwe can respond to PMs, so the PM scanner can act as a spoof Finwe scanner and that claiming PMs is slightly less dangerous

I can assure you Finwe is very aware of that and also very sad about it  But let's be real, everyone wants Finwe dead for the shiny Special Jewels (TM) so that the family drama can begin.

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

That feels like an overreaction, but OK. 

...I did not know that. Thought that was a legitimate part of the rules. 

Fakeclaiming Finwe is bold for Melkor, but Melkor does have an incentive to fakeclaim, as Village might deem it better to let Finwe die to Melkor for the Silmarils. Doubt it will last long though, so that might be a point in your favour.

It's become common practice enough that people forget and it depends on the GM, but given the GM-IM pair for this game, I decided to do it the right way, but not without a bit of whining about having to do a fresh post to change my vote  

[The Unknown Order he/him]

48 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fakeclaiming Finwe is bold for Melkor, but Melkor does have an incentive to fakeclaim, as Village might deem it better to let Finwe die to Melkor for the Silmarils. Doubt it will last long though, so that might be a point in your favour.

I'm pretty sure my playstyle this game has accidentally been play so weirdly Melkor would never do that. Or maybe I'm just overreacting from GMIng.

[Kasimir he/him]

Current State of Kas's Thoughts:

• I don't feel especially strongly about TUN for reasons outlined, which as TUN lampshaded, is probably due to being thrown by how he's playing. I do think Finwe is a potential Melkor fakeclaim, due to the incentive for the Village not to waste a lynch on Finwe, and to try to get Melkor to kill Finwe for them so that everyone can get Shiny Special Jewels(TM). (Thanks guys, I feel loved >>) I don't know if counterclaiming Finwe makes sense as a play here, so /shrug, but slight sus anyway. I do think E!TUN tends to fold faster, but players will change playstyle over time, so the hell I know.
   
• If Araris and Mat can confirm they don't have a PM, I lean Village on Danex for now, with the reservation that Melkor could also be a Messenger. Simply put, these are my considerations: A. I think that Danex was an unlikely candidate for conversion (potentially JNV as well) given the EoD volatility surrounding Danex, B. I also think there is a prima facie claim that Danex really is a Messenger. If this is true, we have the following ways that Danex could be right about the lack of an Araris-Mat PM and still be Melkor: i) Danex is both Melkor and a Messenger - possible, but in my view, unlikely; it is true though that a dual Messenger-Melkor Melkor might have deemed the ability to survive and be softcleared as a Messenger to be more important than converting or killing, ii) Danex is Melkor and converted a Messenger (but this would require him to be lucky enough to have converted a Messenger, and likely partially involves (iii), and iii) Danex made a lucky guess, knowing that Araris was unlikely to have a PM with anyone. On the whole, I am a bit more convinced of Messenger!NotMelkor!Danex, and lean towards Danex not having been converted due to volatility, which for now, entails V!Messenger!Danex
   
• I am more inclined to think Conq is Village, though he might very well have been converted. I think the evidence that Conq at least has a Noble's role is fairly strong - the only world in which Conq isn't a Noble is one in which I am a lying Convert, but fortunately for my sanity, Fifth and RNGesus have allowed me to hold my head high in the Halls of Mandos in the knowledge that I did not scorn the cause of the Valar >> Dramatics aside, I think it is less likely for Melkor to also be a Noble, due to the amount of vote resistance it gives him. I also give Conq Village points for pointing out that he has a dual role, as I think that Melkor would have an incentive to encourage the thought that Melkor only has one role - he just has to pose as his secondary role, especially if it is confirmable, or claim Smith family, and allow the Village a few MLs before the error was realised. (Note that if the secondary role is not provable, then no real credit to Conq for that one.) I can't speak to whether Conq may or may not have been converted, though.
   
• Lean tentatively Village on Devo for playstyle reasons, appreciate Devo's catch that Melkor cannot make Shields, no particularly strong feelings otherwise as I am aware that Devo is a very flexible player where playstyle is concerned.
   
• ??? on JNV and Shining; if JNV is truthful, then Shining is a Noble, and unlikely to be Melkor (cf. my thoughts on vote resistance.) It's worth noting there is a world in which one of them is Melkor with a Jewel, and the other a Convert, but eh. If I'm wrong and Melkor is also a Noble, then that's obviously another Melkor world. I don't give JNV as much credit as I do Conq for the point on the dual roles, and I think the distinction to me is a functional one. Conq's claim potentially puts him back in the Melkor suspect pool for the short term, since the Son of Feanor claim can't currently/so nearly be proven, so I would give some credit for it, while JNV would've been in the pool anyway, and therefore re-widening it doesn't of necessity feel as helpful as it can threaten paralysis. I don't know if my differing responses is reasonable though, so I'll need to think about that. No idea what to think about Shining's late vote volatility either.
   
• Archer is Archer. In the absence of an Orator counterclaim, yeah, but being an Orator may not be incompatible with being Melkor, there's the more unlikely world in which he converted an Orator, but also I will never not be somewhat wary of Archer all the same. Don't disagree with his tactics, no strong feelings. (Incidentally, @Archer, what is the PM that Devo to make a late push on you?)
   
• No particular strong feelings on Mat at this juncture, similar for Araris.
   
• Symph is...well. More on Symph in a while. So, I don't disagree with Danex's scrutiny on Symph. My main issue with the 'Symph is Melkor' hypothesis is, quite simply, that there is no Feanor counterclaim. (And if there is a counterclaim, then why didn't it come last cycle? Feanor is a good candidate for Melkor to fakeclaim due to item creation abilities, so actual V!Feanor should've called Symph out. I do think it is unlikely we have a Silmarillion game without Feanor, and there is the very slight chance Fifth was trolly and Melkor is both Melkor and Feanor but I don't ascribe very high likelihood to that.) Despite that, I do want an answer as to Symph's not creating the item after all (especially since it was to be a shield, and Melkor alone cannot make shields. Moreover, Symph did not volunteer to make a shield, and was resistant to the idea of the shield, and ended up offering to make something else instead - so I'd like to hear more from Symph on the whole issue.) I also agree Feanor is a likely convert or kill candidate, so there is that as well. I'm basically very torn between whether Symph is just an erratic new player or Evil.

At this juncture, I'm leaning to Araris or Symph. Symph currently has a vote, but again, I'd just like some clarity on what's going on.

[SymphonianBookworm she/her]

Oh, the reason I didn’t craft a shield for danex was because I crafted a Fell Sword for myself  If you wait one more round before voting me out, I will craft a shield for danex. If I don’t, feel free to vote me out. Also, @dannnnnnex what was in the PM?

[Archer he/him]

--I'm a little less ready to accept Dannex's claim, given the null result, but I'd be placated by Mat and Araris confirming they had no communication with Dannex that Cycle, and a lack of counter-claims. 

--By the way, the TUN-run e!Ashbringer conversion game was a good proof of concept that solo elims are inclined towards PMing if there's secrets to be found. Why not send some innocent tendrils out to see if anyone will at least confirm they aren't that guy who can't PM? Off the top of my head, I think JNV, Kas, Devo, and Mat have mentioned getting in on the PM action, which ups my suspicion of them. 

--Mat's been opportunistic. Seconding my Araris vote, and voting for Kas (which I saw as more of an e!vanity vote than an e!suicide attempt, if it was evil) have been curious actions. 

--Devo read - I'm strongly village reading Devo. Asking small favors of people to make them like you is a well known psychology trick, but then asking for Shields and asking to have their PM read reads as unnecessarily assertive activity for a player who is capable of playing a low-key elim game. Our PM started with them saying 'hey, if you're evil, maybe don't convert me pretty please'. Obviously performative, but it feels like a villager gambit, not an elim one, considering that they'd chosen not to pocket me at that point. I said nice things about them earlier and they repaid me voting for me. Could an elim afford to burn that bridge so pointlessly? They then told me that my target for vote manip would fail and suggested WW instead, which served to narrow the suspect pool by allowing my role proof to succeed. I don't see an elim going to all this counterproductive trouble when they're trying to survive a solo game. 

--A good elim strategy is to let the ignorant villagers fight amongst themselves until it threatens you. Maybe have a preferred exe option ready in case things turn on you, but for the most part, don't interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. So I'll second Kas' positive read of the person who was trying to 'save Dan'. And frankly anyone who was quick to move votes at EoD. 

--I was intentionally vague about my final target at EoD for the extra vote, but I don't think I left enough time for it to be noticed and responded to. My job is to use my two votes to create unpredictability, and I intend to force Malkor's hand by doing so. E!Araris, JNV probably converted already. But E!Mat or anyone else likely didn't. 

If everyone intends to vote, I invite one of you to PM me with your preferred target and I can cast your vote by proxy, with the added benefit of it'll be a surprise to the recipient. Just don't be too obvious about who your pick is in-thread. 

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'd be placated by Mat and Araris confirming they had no communication with Dannex that Cycle, and a lack of counter-claims.

I think dannnnex is saying that he tried to spy on a PM between me and Araris, and that one doesn’t exist, which is true. I have a PM with dannnex myself but that shouldn’t matter here.

Sorry for being absent this morning, I’ve been busy. Yesterday is likely to be my most active day, unfortunately :P. Probably don’t have time for a big catch-up post but in an hour or two I should be able to reply and comment on some things.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

10 hours ago, JNV said:

Shining Silhouette has felt wobbly cause of the shifting votes but honestly I dont feel like they fit my constructed profile for Melkor which might not be a great way to go suspicion wise honestly

I've been busy today with school and the like, so I've only skimmed the thread, but I'd like to address this point.

My last game, the first cycle I didn't vote, so I wanted to vote this game- I voted on JNV because something about their first post felt off, and at that point I didn't have much to go off of besides gut reads. I decided to keep my vote there until they posted again, but they weren't online for the majority of the cycle, and I didn't want to vote on someone who hadn't had a chance to defend themself (probably a rookie move, but whatever).

When Devo posted on Archer I saw that their reasoning for their vote was better than mine and I immediately jumped on it (though that was totally hindsight confirmation bias in rereading the thread).

After Archer roleclaimed, I once again wanted to move my vote because they had a provable claim, and I moved it back to JNV for convenience. Anyway, it was then that JNV posted and their second post felt a lot better to me than the first and since I was only going off gut, I decided to move once more to Kas. Probably should've thought more about moving so much, but it was the end of the cycle and I didn't want to be wrong about where I voted or be a tiebreaker(especially when JNV started getting a lot of votes), so I moved to someone who I felt "eh" about and who didn't have any votes.

Hope that kind of explains my haphazard voting patterns- I'll be more organized next time.

10 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Yes I am a noble, but I was trying to hold off on that so I could help hide more useful roles. I am sorry Wizard, you just didn't do anything and I felt pretty good about Dan being vil. It would also make sense that Shining is also a noble which means that he can't be Melkor.

I am also a noble.

[Mat he/him]

Quick mini sort of catchup post before I do some school for y'all, with a reads list. (Future Mat: It wasn't mini :|)

@Kasimir-- your initial self vote was because you wanted to confirm Conq's claim to be a Son of Feanor, or something else? If your implied claim is true that saves me the trouble of trying to solve you so this is more just to pique my curiosity and clear things up. I do think TUN saying that it'd be not allowed for him to send you a PM could be him misunderstanding the Finwe rules (though it certainly doesn't look like that from his rule analysis) but just to be clear:

@The Unknown Novel, why did you say it wouldn't be allowed for you to send Kas a PM? It makes sense why Kas voted TUN there but the unvote doesn't make sense from me trying to be in Kas' PoV and I feel like I'm missing a piece of the puzzle here.

@dannnnnnex I don't know if Bookworm is the best immediate kill since there's a rather large IKYK to whether they were converted or not, and theoretically Melkor can make stuff anyway and can't use a Fell Sword so Feanor wouldn't be a super useful conversion. But as I said, IKYK so maybe that's just what Melkor wants us to think :P.

Something I've seen before is a strong village lean on Devotary for playing aggressively (don't remember where that came from) and I don't really agree with that, I feel like most or all of Devo's SK/elim wins that I can think of in recent memory came from more aggressive plays, and I wouldn't have called her play this game particularly aggressive with the exception of the Archer vote last cycle. I've never been able to read Devo, so maybe I'm just wary of people who try, but I'd be careful :P. Archer's village read of them is a lot more compelling to me though.

Fwiw I don't think there's any way Bookworm is Melkor. For me they're clear unless they were converted.

@Archer

Quote

--Mat's been opportunistic. Seconding my Araris vote, and voting for Kas (which I saw as more of an e!vanity vote than an e!suicide attempt, if it was evil) have been curious actions. 

1. I mentioned an e lean on Araris before you did and 2. I never voted for Kas :P.

---

Reads: (Light explanations, I've really got to do school :P) Ratings out of ten, numbers are extremely arbitrary.

• TUN- In the world of Kas/TUN Finwe thunderdome I'd go with Kas first. I think the points on him are valid but nothing we've never seen before and been wrong about. It does occur to me only now that his Finwe claim was probably a joke but I think that'd be NAI :P. 4.9/10 villageriness and a potential Melkor.
   
• Araris- I think my main reasoning for Araris from earlier still stands-- that he used old news as far as reading TUN elim goes and made no effort to solve any further. Busy or no Araris has flown under the radar more than normal and that doesn't sit right with me. 3.9/10 villageriness and a potential Melkor.
   
• Shining- In PMs and thread feels the same as last game, but I got the impression from them as a player that they'd be a good elim. I instinctively read his jump on the Archer train as elim, but I was considering following it so that feels like a silly read to make. Plus, is a noble, apparently, so not Melkor, if we believe Melkor can't have a second role. 6.5/10 villageriness.
   
• JNV- I don't agree with Kas' JNV read he gave, when he voted there. Asking questions for me is NAI, and JNV hasn't given me a reason to read them either way right now. They did their NAI vote analysis, their wallpost commenting on selective things (normal) and a self pres vote. Probably should PM for a better read. 5/10 villageriness [Null] Possible Melkor.
   
• Conq- Nobleness + Save Dan! movement + wallposts in a similar style to his last game = 8/10 villageriness
   
• Dannex- Good vibes in PMs + Messenger claim that I can back up both are village indicative but I acknowledge that both of those points are also C1 exclusive. I think that converted!Dannex would certainly try to kill Feanor the way he's doing, and I guess I need to see if I still village read Dannex later today. 7/10 villageriness.
   
• Devo- I more disagree with the reasons behind the v!Devo reads than e!read Devo myself, save for Archer's point-- I do agree that it'd probably be not worth Devo's trouble to do all of that, but as I said above I think it's within Devo's elim meta for it to be possible. 6/10 villageriness, potential Melkor.
   
• Bookworm- I believe they are Feanor. Whether they're converted is a shrug and a half. shrug/10 villageriness.
   
• Archer- Claimed and (I think) proved to be an Orator. I always have trouble reading Archer and am similarly conflicted on his most recent post; the Devo read I liked but the note about PMs I didn't-- I dispute the idea that Melkor is the only one interested in secrets, along with that secrets are the only reason for PMing :P. I'll pay attention to his votes later on, but for now 7/10 villageriness.
   
• Kas- I do think this number would be lower if he hadn't heavily softed Finwe-- I think the reasons behind his votes haven't been very good, any of them, but maybe I just still don't understand Kas' vote philosophy even after that long discussion we had that one time :P. But like, if he's Finwe then he's village and only village, so 8.1/10 villageriness I suppose. Technically a potential Melkor.

Giving us a tier list that makes itself:

Kas, Conq, [Bookworm?]
Dannex, Archer
Shining, Devo
JNV
TUN, Araris

It ends up kinda just being 'claims' above 'non-claims' which I suppose makes sense but I will say that I think at the current stage, assuming a conversion, I think Dannex is the most likely.

I'm closing the tab so I won't reply to anything for the next few hours.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Unknown Order he/him]

42 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Kasimir-- your initial self vote was because you wanted to confirm Conq's claim to be a Son of Feanor, or something else? If your implied claim is true that saves me the trouble of trying to solve you so this is more just to pique my curiosity and clear things up. I do think TUN saying that it'd be not allowed for him to send you a PM could be him misunderstanding the Finwe rules (though it certainly doesn't look like that from his rule analysis) but just to be clear:

@The Unknown Novel, why did you say it wouldn't be allowed for you to send Kas a PM? It makes sense why Kas voted TUN there but the unvote doesn't make sense from me trying to be in Kas' PoV and I feel like I'm missing a piece of the puzzle here

• TUN- In the world of Kas/TUN Finwe thunderdome I'd go with Kas first. I think the points on him are valid but nothing we've never seen before and been wrong about. It does occur to me only now that his Finwe claim was probably a joke but I think that'd be NAI :P. 4.9/10 villageriness and a potential Melkor.
   

I don't know me saying that could ever be a misinterpretation. 

I was softing Finwe as a joke.

Hey, you're finally figuring out how to read me, it only took fifteen games.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

A little over eight hours left! Don’t forget votes and actions.

[danex he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

think at the current stage, assuming a conversion, I think Dannex is the most likely.

I did claim about 2 minutes before EoD
melkor would've had to be very speedy to switch to me that fast
i suppose they could have already been about to convert me, but that seems unlikely, I was up for the exe, not a smart conversion.
I guess next cycle you'll have to be a bit warier of me, but I think Melkor definitely already used his conversion. Not converting as soon as you can would be very foolish. 

Speaking of next cycle, I think it's likely I just die tonight. It is very public knowledge that I did not get a shield, after all.
So I think I have a very strong case going for V!Me atm
So if any of yall have a method of protecting me, please consider using it on me. If you want PMs that is. I guess you just have to decide whether you think Melkor used their conversion already or not. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[SymphonianBookworm she/her]

I think i’m going to vote for The Unknown Novel because their post above seems suspicious to me. The fact that you would joke about having a role and then back out almost immediately also seems suspicious. 

Also, I’m not actually good at telling if people are suspicious or not but it seems like other people are skeptical of them so 

@dannnnnnex I’m crafting you a shield now.

Edited September 6, 2022 by SymphonianBookworm
Ninja’d

[danex he/him]

2 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

@dannnnnnex I’m crafting you a shield now.

I'd like to believe you, but you're my best guess for who the conversion was. 

Also, a shield wouldn't help me survive this cycle, only the next one. 

[Mat he/him]

34 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

I don't know me saying that could ever be a misinterpretation. 

I was softing Finwe as a joke.

Hey, you're finally figuring out how to read me, it only took fifteen games.

I got to the part in the rules analysis after writing that sentence, but yeah.

Got it, thanks :P. Dunno why that didn't just occur to me lol

I mean. All I said was that the people elim reading you are doing the same thing everyone always does, and I ended with a 4.9/10 (essentially me saying: I think the points against you are valid elim points but also probably null) but if that's a good thing in your books, cool I guess :P.

10 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

I did claim about 2 minutes before EoD
melkor would've had to be very speedy to switch to me that fast
i suppose they could have already been about to convert me, but that seems unlikely, I was up for the exe, not a smart conversion.
So I think I have a very strong case going for V!Me atm

That's fair, actually, though, it's certainly possible Melkor switched that fast since there were plenty of people online at EoD but you're right that the uncertainty surrounding who was exed makes that more unlikely. I think 'very strong' is a bit generous, though :P.

I'll join Kas on Araris for the moment.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[danex he/him]

VC:
Araris (2): Mat, Kas
Symph (1): Danex
TUN (1): Symph

7.5 hours left.

[danex he/him]

@Fifth Scholar does Melkor have a doc to talk to his converted friend in?

[Conquestor he/him]

24 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

I think i’m going to vote for The Unknown Novel because their post above seems suspicious to me. The fact that you would joke about having a role and then back out almost immediately also seems suspicious. 

Also, I’m not actually good at telling if people are suspicious or not but it seems like other people are skeptical of them so 

Speaking of suspicious... What are you going to do with that Fell Sword? Also, I wouldn't mind a Fell Sword and I would be happy to use it as basically a Second exe by the village next cycle. It would also help prove that I am indeed a son of Feanor. This would also do the job of proving you to be Feanor since Melkor can't make those swords. 

Also, I agree that Dan was unlikely to be the conversion target. In fact, I think Melkor is unlikely to want Dan has his partner since his role is actually less useful for him in the long run. He might be the target purely for that reason, but honestly I would rather try to luck out on a sailor, Noble, or Orator. Sailor is a whole extra life is super nice and Noble/Orator allow for Lynch survival over multiple cycles, hard to beat that. 

JNV seems sus to me because after me and Shining got off of him and I tried to convince people to save Dan, he tried to convince me to kill Shining because of their vote switching, which I don't believe to be AI for them. It was chaotic, they are new, and are just trying to make the right choices. While JNV hasn't done much, other than his rules analysis and a couple other small posts. I would like to hear more about their reads if nothing else. 

I am very slightly leaning Melkor on Archer, but I'm unsure. I also don't think TUN is Melkor just for the reason that he put himself out there at the beginning for no reason. He could've just posted the rules analysis, much like JNV, and not added anything else other than commentary here and there.

As for Araris... Well, he seems to be flying under the radar and not putting themselves out there, like at all. They voted for TUN last cycle, who most people were suspicious of and haven't done anything yet this cycle.