Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[danex he/him]

This was the VC end of cycle:

Quote

VC:
Araris (3): Mat, Danex, Conq
TUN (1): Symph
Mat (2): Araris, Archer
Devo (2): Kas, Shining

And this is what we ended up with. 

Quote

Araris (4)

Devo (2)

Mat (2)

TUN (1)

Not too much of a difference, just an extra vote on araris. Which is weird, because the only orator we know of is Archer, and he wasn't voting for araris himself.

Possible Scenarios:
1. Mat is an orator, and Archer didn't use his action/isn't actually an orator/got action-blocked
2. Archer moved someone's vote onto araris for....some reason. despite voting someone else.
3. Araris used a gemstone on Archer....not sure why he'd do that though.

I did receive a shield, so slight vil points to symph for that. 

i also scanned Kas and Conq's PM, can provide details if asked. 

[danex he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

(Someone tell me if there is a hole in this line of reasoning.)

someone else could have done the votejacking. a second orator.

[Mat he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice  Rather than the role, I suggest then that we look at actions that are or are not corroborated. Killing and conversion are both role actions, so if roles are used provably during a cycle where a Melkor kill (or convert I guess) takes place, we can whittle down a suspect pool from there.

Edited to add: To be clear, what I had in mind was 'get your suspect pool, use corroborated actions to remove people from it.' Reasoning first, then actions economy.

Works for me. There are a number of passive role abilities, though, so we need to be careful with that too.

8 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

i also scanned Kas and Conq's PM, can provide details if asked. 

I think the open PMs prove your role well enough, just not your allegiance. Haven’t decided that yet. I think I lean more vil on you after Araris’ flip but I’m not sure how connected you are v/v wise, just that I drew e/e connections. I’ll look into that.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

1. Mat is an orator, and Archer didn't use his action/isn't actually an orator/got action-blocked

Possible, but requires Archer to have been lucky enough to have converted an Orator C1 because for Orator!Mat and Archer to be in cahoots C2, Archer has to be Melkor. In Orator!Mat world, the vote manip still means that he cannot have converted anyone. So Archer has had to have fakeclaimed Orator as Melkor and been lucky. (Orator!Melkor!Archer also has the actions economy problem.)

Unlikely for Araris to have used a gemstone. Araris mentioned he would not be around EoC, which is why he never defended himself.

6 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

I did receive a shield, so slight vil points to symph for that. 

This means we know Symph took an action C2, as corroborated by you, and if Conq didn't Heir you, then it basically either came from Symph or JNV. So we have some reason to think Symph didn't kill that cycle. I guess it doesn't rule out a world in which Melkor converts Symph C2 and kills C2, but at least that's what we can say on the basis of actions economy.

8 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

i also scanned Kas and Conq's PM, can provide details if asked. 

In total, what is the number/count of discrete messages in the PM? (Each post by a player in that thread counts as one message.)

[Archer he/him]

Hey, Dannex, what was the first verb Conq used in the Kas PM? And why'd you feel the need to post a that's all folks statement at the end, as if nervous that people would catch you lurking, ready to save yourself if someone started irrationally moving votes around? Why have you been so focused on the votes this game? And going back to C1, why didn't you call your shot about whose PMs you'd scan when you claimed? 

I moved TUN's vote onto Araris, by the way. 

I wonder if the GM gave e!Dannex a role that people wouldn't be eager to exe in a tight-lipped!Araris scenario, that gives them a peek at valuable information, while being provable once they can pass killing duties off to their minion past C1

Dannex

[danex he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

In total, what is the number/count of discrete messages in the PM? (Each post by a player in that thread counts as one message.)

4, if i counted right. 

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

4, if i counted right. 

Sadly correct, and I corroborate this.

I received a shield this cycle as well. I am currently backreading to see if this could have come from Conq as Conq was urging heiring, and this could have bearing on actions economy. I promise to do vote analysis in a bit  

Edited to add:

Conq claimed no starting items. I am currently leaning to the view the two shields were created by a Smith and by Feanor - this doesn't say anything about their alignment, but it confirms that said players cannot have put in a kill last cycle.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kasimir

[danex he/him]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Hey, Dannex, what was the first verb Conq used in the Kas PM?

"saw" (as in past tense of 'see')

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

And why'd you feel the need to post a that's all folks statement at the end, as if nervous that people would catch you lurking, ready to save yourself if someone started irrationally moving votes around?

that is a lot of jumping to conclusions for an 8-word post. I was prepared to die from the elim kill/prepared to have the exe completely screwed over by other people's vote manip.
And wdym lurking, there were so many people in the thread, and I had posted just moments before. 

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Why have you been so focused on the votes this game?

This cycle is the first vote analysis i've done all game, and end of last cycle was concerningly divisive, we were all focused on it.

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

And going back to C1, why didn't you call your shot about whose PMs you'd scan when you claimed?

I hadn't put an action in yet when i claimed. I hurriedly made a guess at who I thought might have a PM before the cycle closed. Didn't see Devo's message about scanning Kas and theirs before it was too late. 

my turn to interrogate
Why were you switching votes like a madman at the end? Why'd you switch someone's vote onto araris? Why didn't you vote araris yourself?

Edited September 7, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

I wonder if the GM gave e!Dannex a role that people wouldn't be eager to exe in a tight-lipped!Araris scenario, that gives them a peek at valuable information, while being provable once they can pass killing duties off to their minion past C1

How is this supposed to work?

[Archer he/him]

41 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

"saw" (as in past tense of 'see')

that is a lot of jumping to conclusions for an 8-word post. I was prepared to die from the elim kill/prepared to have the exe completely screwed over by other people's vote manip.
And wdym lurking, there were so many people in the thread, and I had posted just moments before. 

This cycle is the first vote analysis i've done all game, and end of last cycle was concerningly divisive, we were all focused on it.

I hadn't put an action in yet when i claimed. I hurriedly made a guess at who I thought might have a PM before the cycle closed. Didn't see Devo's message about scanning Kas and theirs before it was too late. 

my turn to interrogate
Why were you switching votes like a madman at the end? Why'd you switch someone's vote onto araris? Why didn't you vote araris yourself?

Thanks. 

I know there were lots of people, but Symph was PMing me until shortly before I voted them, then they left. Mat was posting. You were the only silent one, and playing a low profile game is a sin. 

You've been posting a lot of vote counts, which means you're keeping closer tabs on who might die than anyone else is. Villagers tend to be more ambivalent, especially when they themselves aren't at risk. Elims, especially teammates, get more out of that type of information tracking in real time. It doesn't read as game solving to me. 

Why hadn't you put in that action? Perhaps you'd put in a Malkor action instead and had no intention or even a plan about how you'd use the spying ability. Everyone who has claimed has thought to announce how they'd prove it, so it's an odd anomaly. I propose that you got caught flat footed, but covered it well after converting Mat. You couldn't use a real PM because you might get asked about it when Mat wasn't on to feed you answers. But you could ask who he didn't have a PM with and go with that. 

My Araris secret vote was meant to kill them. I suspected them, for reasons™. My Mat vote was to give teeth to the threat of me voting them in future, in case e!they haven't converted yet due to lack of pressure. And the others were to see if anyone on would panic and say something interesting. 

Edit: To respond to Kas, I think the players would be expected to be adverse to exing the Messanger. It's also a good role for the elims to have so they can spy on PM's, lessening the might of what should mostly be a strong village back channel situation. So Dannex is a Messenger Malkor who faked using the role C1 when they converted someone, then did use it this round. I have no idea if that's consistent with the rules

Edited September 7, 2022 by Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

My Araris secret vote was meant to kill them. I suspected them, for reasons™. My Mat vote was to give teeth to the threat of me voting them in future, in case e!they haven't converted yet due to lack of pressure. And the others were to see if anyone on would panic and say something interesting. 

What reasons?

[danex he/him]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

You've been posting a lot of vote counts, which means you're keeping closer tabs on who might die than anyone else is.

I'm posting vote counts because Fifth said they wouldn't, and because it is actually useful to know who's up for the exe. I feel like that's obvious?? And it was quite literally useful, many people didn't realize how spread the vote was until I posted it.

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Villagers tend to be more ambivalent, especially when they themselves aren't at risk.

Villagers tend to not care about the vote count???????? what???????????

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

Elims, especially teammates, get more out of that type of information tracking in real time.

If i was sharing this information purely for my elim teammates, i'd just put it in our shared doc. Nobody would think i'm suspicious for not sharing a vote count, so why would I give the village an advantage by doing the work for them?

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

Why hadn't you put in that action?

I forgot I could =P
PM spying is almost always useless. especially D1. In my mind, my role was "if alive, then PMs". the spying thing was an afterthought that I only remembered to do when I realized I needed it to prove my claim. 

I feel like you're being strangely illogical. Can't tell if it's because of e!archer or just tunneling!archer

[danex he/him]

Also, 

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

Everyone who has claimed has thought to announce how they'd prove it

I did do that.

Quote

I'm claiming messenger

i can prove this next cycle by revealing the contents of someones PM
tell me who you have a PM with and ill tell you the contents.

But nobody responded quick enough, so I had to guess Mat and Araris, since Mat had indicated in our PM that he had a few PMs open with "a few main people" that he felt would be useful, and he had expressed suspicion of araris earlier, so I figured there were fairly good odds that they had a PM.

Edited September 7, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Mat he/him]

38 minutes ago, Archer said:

So Dannex is a Messenger Malkor who faked using the role C1 when they converted someone, then did use it this round. I have no idea if that's consistent with the rules

Consider the world of v!me. What happens to this theory then? Because I can see e!Dannex here but only if he’s a convert, unless he got a lucky guess with the PM scan on C2. Or learned some other way that Araris didn’t have a PM with me (this would be something like Dannnex’s convertee having a PM with Araris and Araris mentioning that it was his only PM to the convertee, or something of the sort. Not a very likely option, imo)

It is interesting to consider convertee!Dannex though, the first thing that comes to mind is Devo’s large Archer push late D1, which seemed out of place for her. That could be explained by her having submitted a conversion on Dannex and wanting to get the exe elsewhere. Idk how high Devo’s risk tolerance is though for when that didn’t work.

21 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

But nobody responded quick enough, so I had to guess Mat and Araris, since Mat had indicated in our PM that he had a few PMs open with "a few main people" that he felt would be useful, and he had expressed suspicion of araris earlier, so I figured there were fairly good odds that they had a PM.

Ah, but you also were unaware of the fact that my PMs with Araris almost never get more than two messages in. Some people are easier for me to think of things to say to, and Araris isn’t that for me  I do normally like to PM my elim suspects to feel them out but I don’t do that unless I think it’ll actually work.

[Kasimir he/him]

Okay. So I don't think it is as useful to focus on roles due to the prevalence of potential double roles, and we don't want Melkor to be the exception that proves the rule. Fine. I suggested earlier that we should look at actions instead - the key helpful rule here is actions economy-based. Players get one role action and one item action per cycle, that's it. I'm not interested in item actions so much as role actions, because I think this is helpful for us. We know there was a Corrupted kill C2. Let's forget about Melkor for a second. Melkor doesn't matter. (MELKOR! *angry growl with fists clenched*.)

What matters is that someone had to have put in the kill, and that someone had to spend a role action on it. And that player is findable.

Fair warning that the following section is going to be mech reasoning heavy, but I am better at mech than reads so this is where I will start. I will do vote reasoning when I get back from work.

PART A: What is the data?

Spoiler

	C1	C2
TUN	O	O
Mat	O	O
Shining	O	O
JNV	X	X
Danex	X	X
Devo	O	X
Symph	X	X
Archer	X	X
Kas	O	O

This is a simple visualisation of what we know so far, publicly. We are more interested in the C2 column because we know someone Evil put in a kill last cycle. So what does the info say? I'll go over this bit by bit.

JNV claimed to have made themselves a shield C1, and to have made a shield C2. I can confirm having received the shield, and JNV has claimed to have made me the shield, so this is corroboration of JNV's C2 claim.

Danex claimed to have spied on Araris's and Mat's PM C1, and on mine and Conq's C2. I can confirm Danex has gotten both Conq's first verb and the message count correct, and consider it corroboration of Danex's C2 claim.

Someone claimed to have roleblocked Devo. Because Devo was roleblocked, if that player is truthful, Devo cannot have put in the kill. This cannot be strongly corroborated, so I have not bolded or greened it.

Symph claimed to have made themselves a Fell Sword C1, and Danex a shield C2. Danex has claimed to have received a shield, so this is corroboration of Symph's C2 action.

Archer claimed to have votejacked C1, accounting for the extra vote, and to have votejacked TUN onto Araris C2. With no contestation, and the evidence of the extra vote, we have some reason to believe Archer's C2 claim is truthful.

It does not mean that our claimed players are truthful. They could be lying and they could have helpers. But what matters for our purposes is that we have some reason to believe most of these claims. This leaves us with four players who have no alibi and could have made a C2 kill: <Mat, TUN, Shining, Kas.>

Of the four, I am Finwe, High King of the Noldor, and I have no actions, and my claim has not been contested. I begin loyal to the Valar and I cannot be swayed by Melkor's fair words. As such, this means that our pool of potential killers narrows to: <Mat, TUN, Shining.> 

But what if our claimed players aren't truthful?

Part B: Who's the Liar Here?

Spoiler

In this Part, I want to especially look at loopholes, or places where I might have been too quick to consider a player exonerated (see: a repeat of Malibu.) To do so, I am going to pathwalk to generate possibilities compatible with what we know. Because this might be confusing, keep in mind we are not interested in who Melkor specifically is. What we are ultimately interested in is who could have made a kill. Suppositions about who Melkor is is merely the path we take to get there.

This section is where I show my working and there is a lot of possibilities. To check my working, read this. To go to the upshot, check Part C first.

i) JNV

Suppose we have two main possibilities: [J1] JNV kills C2, or [J2] JNV makes me a shield C2. Recall that item creation and killing are both role actions so [J1] and [J2] are mutually exclusive and distinct worlds. In the world where JNV kills C2, JNV's teammate must also be a Smith, capable of making me a shield C2. Then, JNV kills Conq. In the world where JNV makes me a shield C2, JNV's teammate kills Conq. 

Here's the issue. In either [J1] or [J2], someone had to put in the kill or make the shield. This still means we have to look at someone whose actions were not accounted for, because by definition, everyone else's actions have been corroborated. In other words, we are back to the <Mat, TUN, Shining> set. But beyond that, how would that work?

Suppose:

There is a third world [J3] where JNV's teammate is actually Feanor, who makes a shield C2. But then in [J3], JNV and Symph are both Evil. Which means Danex is telling the truth about receiving a shield, I am telling the truth about receiving a shield, so where is the extra Smith who is lying and covering for Symph and/or JNV? Why would a V!Smith do that? There are not enough role actions for this world! I suppose there is one out where Araris Heired me or Danex, but do E!Symph and E!JNV risk claiming to make items, knowing they would face more pressure the next cycle? So JNV-Symph is a possible teaming, but I personally ascribe it low weight.

Here's another example. Suppose in [J4], where JNV's teammate is Devo. Let's once again explore the possibilities: JNV made the Shield C2, or JNV killed C2. If JNV killed C2, then Devo had to have made the shield C2. But then this means that the player who claimed to have action-blocked Devo C2 was lying. This entails at least a three person team, since why would a Villager cover for Devo? Perhaps there is a small escape hatch here: JNV killed, Devo was roleblocked, and I received the shield from Araris.

The same reasoning applies for [J5], where JNV is teamed with Danex. If JNV killed C2, then someone had to make the shield C2. If Danex did it, who viewed my messages? If JNV made the shield C2, who killed C2, if Danex was viewing my messages? This teaming isn't coherent with the results. This world is just barely possible if the shield I received came from Araris.

There is [J6], where JNV is teamed with Archer. Archer either puts in the kill or the Smith action. Our main problem in this world is that we then need to postulate a third teammate to account for where Archer's votejacking action came from! The one escape hatch: the Shield comes from Araris. So this is a barely-coherent team.

ii) Danex

Suppose we have two main possibilities: [DX1] Danex kills C2, or [DX2] Danex spies on my PM with Conq C2. Once again, [DX1] requires Danex to have a teammate capable of spying on messages. In [DX2], Danex needs to have a teammate who put in the kill. Prima facie, we know the teammate has to exist in the <Shining, Mat, TUN> set. But what if this is false?

Consider [DX3], where Archer actually put in the kill or the Messenger spy action. Our main problem in this world is that we then need to postulate a third teammate to account for where Archer's votejacking action came from! So this is not a coherent team.

There's [DX4], where Danex and Symph are teamed. Symph puts in the kill or the Messenger spy action. This world might be coherent: Danex lies about receiving a shield and uses his spying action, while Symph kills. (I have decided to stop commenting about plausibility here or things will get longer and more complex. Let's just look at raw possibility.)

There's [DX5], where Devo and Danex are teamed. This is also a world that might be coherent: Danex spies and Devo kills, or Devo kills and Danex spies. 

[DX6] or a Danex and JNV team world have a common problem: someone had to spy on my PM with Conq, someone had to make the shield, and someone had to make the kill, and given that JNV claimed the shield, I think it is likely that this doesn't work out unless I inherited a shield from Araris.

iii) Devo

Once again, let's look at the main possibilities: [DV1] Devo kills C2, or [DV2] Devo does not take an action C2. [DV1] outright requires the roleblocker to be lying and teamed with Devo. This is a coherent world. [DV2] requires a teammate who put in the kill; again, prima facie, <Mat, TUN. Shining.>

Consider [DV3], where Archer puts in the kill instead. Devo was roleblocked, meaning we need to postulate a third teammate to account for Archer's votejacking. Once again, not a coherent team.

In [DV4], Devo and Symph are teamed. But this requires Symph to have put in the kill, and Danex to have inherited a Shield from Araris. 

In [DV5], Devo and Danex are teamed. This is a world that might be coherent, as discussed in [DX5].

In [DV6], Devo and JNV are teamed. Again, a world where JNV killed (so I had to have received my Shield from Araris.)

iv) Symph

Once again, let's look at the main possibilities: [S1] Symph kills C2, or [S2] Symph makes a shield C2. In [S1], Symph needs a teammate who makes a shield, unless the Shield was inherited; in [S2], Symph absolutely needs a teammate who kills: again, prima facie, <Mat, TUN. Shining.>

In [S3], Symph and Archer are paired. This is a problematic world, requiring either a third teammate to account for Archer's votejacking, or for a shield to have been passed from Araris.

In [S4], Devo and Symph are teamed. But this requires Symph to have put in the kill, and Danex to have inherited a Shield from Araris. 

In [S5], Symph and Danex are teamed. This is a world that might be coherent: Symph kills, Danex spies, and lies about the shield, or inherits the shield. 

In [S6], Symph and JNV are teamed. One of them kills: the other makes a Shield. The missing Shield is inherited from Araris.

v) Archer

The most problematic (  ) guy of the lot. [A1] Archer kills C2, or [A2] Archer votejacks C2. In [S1], Archer needs a teammate who votejacks, and in [A2], Archer needs a teammate who kills. Again, prima facie, <Mat, TUN, Shining.> But let's suppose one of the other actions is false and that player is working with Archer. Who could it be?

[A3] is the world where Devo and Archer are teamed. In [A3], Archer has to have put in the kill C2, which requires us to postulate another, non-roleblocked teammate to have done the votejacking. Not coherent.

[A4] Archer and Symph are teamed. If Archer kills, then Symph has to put in the Orator action, with Danex inheriting a Shield from Araris. Similar analysis for if Archer votejacks.

[A5] Archer and Danex are teamed. This is not a coherent world either, because there are three actions to account for: Orator votejack, Messenger spy, and the kill, which requires us to postulate three players due to actions economy.

[A6] Archer and JNV are teamed. If Archer kills, then Symph has to put in the Orator action, with my inheriting a Shield from Araris. Similar analysis for if Archer votejacks.

So what is the point of all this?

Next Part!

 

Part C: tldr;

If you don't think that one of the Evil players is in <TUN, Shining, Mat>, then you are left with these potential teams:

1. Archer-Symph
2. Archer-JNV
3. Symph-Devo
4. Symph-Danex
5. Symph-JNV
6. Devo-Danex
7. Devo-JNV
8. Danex-JNV

There are a few conclusions:

A. It is very unlikely that Archer is the C2 killer. It is just bloody difficult to account for Archer putting in the kill in light of the fact we have to account for whoever then put in the votejack order. (Thank you, Archer, if you're Village!)

B. There are eight potential teams only if you think that Danex or I may have inherited a Shield from Araris. If you think it is fairly unlikely we may have inherited a Shield, then the number of potential teams collapses to:

1. Devo-Danex
2. Symph-Danex

Any team with Symph or JNV in it is really only viable if we assume/stipulate that Danex or I inherited/received a Shield from Araris. I don't know how likely that is, but I lean unlikely. 

C. Keep in mind that actions are not infallible - roleblocks can be redirected by the use of a gemstone. But if so, then I'd suggest that @SymphonianBookworm keep making items alongside using your Fell Sword to roleblock people - this way, you have some way of telling if you were redirected because someone used a gemstone on you. Otherwise, it's possible to get the wrong results and not be told. I can confirm the roleblock on Devo was not redirected, though.

Part D: Thoughts rn

Of the Mat, TUN, Shining triad, I am struggling to get a read of any particular one. But I also want to look at voting records (even if I've no time to do progression analysis, I'll at least look at some votes.)

Quote

Araris (3): Conq, Danex, Mat
Mat (2): Archer, Araris
Devo (2): Shining, Kas
TUN (1): Symph

End C2, IMO, is fairly low temperature compared to end C1. 

Borrowing Dannex's votecount:

5 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

Araris (1): Mat
Symph (1): Danex
TUN (1): Symph
Mat (1): Araris,
Devo (1): Kas
JNV (1): Conq

75 Minutes left

This is absurdly low temperature, but this makes sense as the vote was so diluted that it didn't have much chance of hitting Melkor's teammate and Melkor was never going to be threatened by it. An hour and fifteen minutes to rollover, Danex and Conq call for consolidation. Granted, I don't expect the Elims to make a big fuss, given there are at most two of them, but the noisiest votehopper near the end was Archer and there was basically no reaction! 

I'm willing to consider Archer as being a bit overprotective of Devo (and his Araris vote as being protective of Devo), but an Archer-Devo team doesn't make sense due to actions economy. So that's not a line of analysis that's worth looking at. 

The first player to break the stalemate is Shining:

Quote

Araris (1): Mat
Symph (1): Danex
TUN (1): Symph
Mat (1): Araris,
Devo (2): Kas, Shining
JNV (1): Conq

Which puts the Devo train in the lead. Shortly after, Danex ties this off with a vote on Araris, which Conq joins at the very same time:

Quote

Araris (3): Mat, Danex, Conq
TUN (1): Symph
Mat (1): Araris,
Devo (2): Kas, Shining

We now know that Conq and Araris were Village - this turned it into a lead train on a Villager, with the Devo train secondary. Likely explains the low reaction. I don't take the Devo train to be alignment indicative.

Not very helpful

But the re-read did make some things stand out:

• I get a fairly genuine vibe off JNV's paranoia/confusion "whaaaat do I do in a conversion game", but recognise that E!JNV is capable of doing that. Even so, lean Village on JNV. Open to different reads/being convinced otherwise.
   
• I am tempted to lean V on Shining due to Shining's reads seeming a bit weird to me in a 'IDGAF what anyone else thinks these are my reads fullstop' kind of way, but I am curious about Shining joining me on Devo. Shining missing the Finwe claim ironically makes me feel a bit better - I think Team Melkor would probably have picked up on it, and Shining just going 'maybe lean E' with no real input on that feels like something an Elim would be more conscious of.
   
• Did Mat legit sign on to a CC lynch of Araris >> The other alternative is that his vote kind of stayed there on the basis of a Dannex-Melkor!Araris team despite Devo pointing out that you could just...get them both to spy on PMs. Though tbf, role confirmation =/= actions economy stuff, but it was hinged on a distro concern so there's that.
   
• I genuinely do not know what to think of TUN. Feel E!TUN is more conciliatory but it wouldn't be the first time a player changed playstyle.
   
• On re-read, I once again lean Village on Devo - there's something more carefree about Devo's C2 engagement with the thread and the way she interjects that vibes more with her Village play. I fully expect to change my mind (and my read) for at least the next seventy times.
   
• I agree with Devo that Danex or JNV getting converted feels like a longshot due to uncertainty about them getting exed. Because conversion comes before the exe on OoA, converting someone can be a real problem - they'd convert in time to die. We know that Conq, who was vehemently behind the save Danex movement, was Village, so I don't see it being Melkor motivated. With the vote uncertainty and thread activity, the idea that Melkor would be fine with converting Danex or JNV seems unlikely (doesn't help if they are Melkor, of course.) The point of this is that I do think that Danex felt like he was trying to solve the game; I guess one could wonder about whether he was trying to get Feanor killed (why else is Feanor not dead?) but that path is an IKYK - and I'm not sure that Danex is taking the best road for actual!Melkor there (arguing that Feanor is Melkor is kind of insane given real Feanor hasn't counterclaimed.)
   
• end!C2 and early C3 Archer leave me feeling very torn. End C2 Archer felt like he was engaging more in performative uncertainty than actual uncertainty, given he was swapping his votes very quickly in a short period of time on players who basically wouldn't have been endangered anyway (two votes with the lead train being three votes.) At the same time, I like the strategy/thought. I still have no idea how his E!Danex theory was meant to work, or his Araris suspicions. So /shrug from me, but acknowledged that it's very hard to make Archer work with an Evil team, so the sensible thing to do is to focus on other players for now.

That's it from me for now, my brain is circling the drain .__.

FYI that I can only be irregularly on at EoD due to wonderful timezones.

[danex he/him]

39 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

That's it from me for now, my brain is circling the drain

This entire post is genius
Incredibly close to solving the entire game.

I would like to now call for TUN, Mat, and Shining to give us some action-claims. or at least give them to kas. The fact that we have no Finwe counterclaim yet + the insane amount of genuine effort that went into that post is enough for me to believe that he is conf-vil. 

if you really arent comfortable with action-claims, at least give us item claims. if you roleblocked anyone, that info is heccin valuable. 

So yeah. TUN, Mat Shining
report to kas
please

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Mat

[danex he/him]

also

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

B. There are eight potential teams only if you think that Danex or I may have inherited a Shield from Araris. If you think it is fairly unlikely we may have inherited a Shield, then the number of potential teams collapses to:

1. Devo-Danex
2. Symph-Danex

I know for a fact that I am not evil
so an elim must be in that trio of action-claimless people, at least from my perspective. 
TUN, most suspicious of you so far. have any actions to claim?

my flip now gives quite a lot of info
which means i don't think the elims will target me
so i am also down to info-exe me
if you guys want to lose PMs that is
maybe we save that for a future cycle

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, dannnnnnex said:

if you really arent comfortable with action-claims, at least give us item claims. if you roleblocked anyone, that info is heccin valuable. 

FYI that AFAIK, when I demarcated them as no real claims, I did include whatever I know of any action claims they may or may not have shared. General PSA to everyone to use mech reasoning with reads because the whole point of Part B is that there are loopholes depending on how kind RNGesus is feeling - so while mech reasoning can help a little, it can't seal the deal.

1 hour ago, dannnnnnex said:

so an elim must be in that trio of action-claimless people, at least from my perspective. 

I would agree with this but as a point of caution, if you or I received a Shield from Araris's death by pure accident, then all of that goes out the window and there are eight possible teams (fewer in your case if you rule yourself out.)

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat

y tho

1 hour ago, dannnnnnex said:

the insane amount of genuine effort that went into that post is enough for me to believe that he is conf-vil. 

Orlok would kill me if I never point out that effort clearing is problematic. But I also admit E!Kas would have no patience because I burned too many hours of my life trying to make this make sense.

Caution that there might be loopholes I miss, in which case, good to hear if anyone has noticed them. But I think the key is to actively go re-read posts.

My struggle is that Mat actually kinda reads Village to me. But I don't understand the Araris vote/reasoning for Araris. Between TUN and Shining, if forced, I would probably be more sold on V!Shining, and the emotion/vibe behind C2 JNV reads genuine Village. But E!JNV scammed me hard before in a LG over the same thing so I do not know if I trust me on it.

Edited to add:

Doesn't count for much, but Danex's response came within a minute of my query. Feels a bit too fast for it to be conveyed by doc, so he's definitely out of the running in my books for C2 killer, either way.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Did Mat legit sign on to a CC lynch of Araris >> The other alternative is that his vote kind of stayed there on the basis of a Dannex-Melkor!Araris team despite Devo pointing out that you could just...get them both to spy on PMs. Though tbf, role confirmation =/= actions economy stuff, but it was hinged on a distro concern so there's that.

Can you not act like the only reason my vote was there was CC and my crack theory >> It wasn't a CC. And my vote was there long before I had the theory. I've explained why I voted there multiple times and I really wish people would stop misrepresenting my actions :P.

Only have time for this bit rn but I'll reply to other stuff in a few hours.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can you not act like the only reason my vote was there was CC and my crack theory >> It wasn't a CC. And my vote was there long before I had the theory. I've explained why I voted there multiple times and I really wish people would stop misrepresenting my actions :P.

Okay, seriously, if I missed it, what was it? Because I re-read C2, and then reluctantly went over C1 again, but the main post that stood out to me was first your statement that Araris was more quiet than he usually was (Araris noted he was busy and offered a post with some thoughts) and your subsequent post with the crack theory. You later stated you most wanted Araris to die of basically everyone else, but that read basically as a reasons-preference based on what you initially offered.

Given my current low SAN, it is likely I missed it if there's another reason there, and honestly other than the ??? Araris moment, I am getting Village off your posts so I'd prefer not to ML you if it can be reasonably avoided >>

Edited to add:

@SymphonianBookworm - If you'd take a strategic suggestion - you might want to consider using your Fell Sword. You have one item action and one role action each cycle, and everytime you roleblock a player, you confirm they didn't put in a kill that cycle. If you're making items, use your best judgement, but it probably would be good if there were a couple more Fell Swords floating around. If you're Village, it is very likely that Melkor is aiming to get us to ML you, so being able to help informationally would be a good way to screw Melkor over  Did you use the Sword C1?

@JNV - Defer to your tactical decisions on item creation and gifting, agreed that Shields are a wise choice, but likely situational. Do not know if Sword is worth the risk for a once-a-game action block and otherwise item block. You claimed to have made a Shield C1. Did you use it C2? If not, you may want to consider using it - again, one item action and one role action means that the item action is free anyway, so may as well go for it. 

Generally, anyone with an item that's not one-use, consider using it  Keep in mind that Shields do also protect from roleblocks and item theft via knives, so a judgement call has to be made there.

@Archer - Mind dropping me a PM? There's a rule interaction IDK if you know about, but that while it is something anyone can work out, I'd rather not make public if I don't have to.

-

I've talked to Fifth about some rules and there's one situation in which the roleblock claim on Devo doesn't pan out - and it does shift the calculus a bit. Basically, this is the world where Devo had a Helm or was guarded with a Shield. In that world, the roleblocker isn't told the roleblock failed, but it does fail. I take the upshot of that to mean that if you think Devo had a Helm or was guarded (and reasonably I think, if the Elims had a player with a Helm, that would be the reasonable player to make the kill), then the idea Devo didn't take an action fails. In which case, we return to a <Devo, Mat, TUN, Shining> pool.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Alright, I'm back. Today will be the same activity wise as yesterday (ideally a bit less, actually, I should focus more on school :P) but I should be around for quick PMs and stuff for the next few hours. I don't think I'll be here for rollover, having to check out twenty minutes before again, which is too bad, but at least I can give a proper warning this time.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Any team with Symph or JNV in it is really only viable if we assume/stipulate that Danex or I inherited/received a Shield from Araris. I don't know how likely that is, but I lean unlikely. 

Can people start with items? Araris making you his Heir seems reasonable and if he started with a shield that would make sense, but I think he probably would have told you if that were the case. Did you claim to have got the shield before JNV said they made it for you? I think leaning unlikely is probably a good way to lean though.

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat

The only way this makes sense to me as Melkor!Devo is as an attempt to be TWTBAW, but given Devo's play this game that wouldn't surprise me.

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, seriously, if I missed it, what was it? Because I re-read C2, and then reluctantly went over C1 again, but the main post that stood out to me was first your statement that Araris was more quiet than he usually was (Araris noted he was busy and offered a post with some thoughts) and your subsequent post with the crack theory. You later stated you most wanted Araris to die of basically everyone else, but that read basically as a reasons-preference based on what you initially offered.

Given my current low SAN, it is likely I missed it if there's another reason there, and honestly other than the ??? Araris moment, I am getting Village off your posts so I'd prefer not to ML you if it can be reasonably avoided >>

Here, I'll walk you through my progression the best I can--

• The first time I mentioned suspicion was an edit in this post, though iirc it was edited in seconds after the post went up. Here is the primary reason I suspected Araris, and it remained true through his death: That his pop-in to vote TUN was picking the easiest option of them all to vote, and that the reasoning he cited is overused for TUN. To me it showed little investment for someone who I think should know TUN's meta.
   
•  The second time was here, in response to Archer. I mention activity a bit here but it's not in the CC sort of way, it's in the 'I just played with v!Araris and there is a very noticeable difference' sort of way. But even then it wasn't my main point. I kinda was testing the waters as far as Archer's read went, because I'd rather vote with someone than on my own as a general rule, but ultimately when it comes down to it I'm gonna vote where my suspicions are. People mistook that for opportunistic which is annoying but also fine, I just thought it was interesting that I got singled out despite me definitely not being the only one who voted someone in response to someone else having a suspicion or vote :P.
   
• Later Araris and I had a small interaction but it didn't explain why the TUN read is different this time, just doubled down on it. There's not really much to note here for my progression, just to say that I was still surprised Araris seemed unaware that his TUN read was almost copy+pasted from a bunch of other TUN games and that caused me to believe that he wasn't unaware at all. (Pause to say here that none of this is meant to be a TUN defense-- I think that the read Araris gave should have resulted in NAI, not elim or village).
   
• He survived the D1 tie, which I suppose is unremarkable now but I may have confibaised that into my reasoning a teeeeeny bit :P. Dannnex was in that tie, too. Maybe I should learn from my mistakes and forget about that but I don't want to forget about it :D.
   
• Friendly reminder that you also voted Araris a few hours into D2, and I didn't see any reasoning from you :P.
   
• My first C2 megatype post is here, if you go to the read there you can see again me citing my reasoning that isn't activity related. It probably wasn't fair of me to say he made no attempt to solve outside of TUN but he did not make a second elim read up to this point, and you know how I tunnel so I don't think it's surprising I turned a blind eye to his comments about the dannex train and the like :P. I read those more as filler than anything else, iirc. And again, the activity point isn't CC focused, it's focused on noting the difference from his v!norm.
   
• This Araris post only responded to my activity point, not my main point, which I thought was interesting. I also didn't like how he just voted the person voting him, when in his vote post there isn't much reasoning for e!me, it looked like he just grabbed names into a PoE and then picked the person going after him. I also disagreed with the TUN point he had in this post (Again- not a TUN defense. I think Melkor!TUN could have fake claimed Finwe, but I think it was a joke whether he's v or e).
  • I responded to that Araris post here, but I essentially just said what I did in the above paragraph. This might be why you only thought I was voting him for activity, but this post only has activity mentioned because it's the only thing Araris mentioned, and I was replying to him.
     
• That same post was where I had my crack theory, and I'm having to restrain myself from explaining it again but can you see how it made sense? xD But the main takeaway here or the thing I'm trying to show you is that it wasn't why I was voting Araris, that I had former reasoning, and that the progression makes sense. The theory added fuel to the fire, though :P.

But yeah, TL;DR is that I thought his TUN read was overused and therefore an easy choice that showed lower effort than I'd have thought from Araris, and that he focused on that read too much, only branching out on his elim reads to vote the person voting him. As a supporting point, activity levels being much lower than his village game from a few weeks ago (which is a different thing than a CC) and the crack theory at the end to solidify my vote.

Hope that makes sense; it was much longer than I ever intended it to be :P.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[SymphonianBookworm she/her]

@dannnnnnex You received my shield, right? Is there anyone claiming to be a Son of Feanor?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

@dannnnnnex You received my shield, right? Is there anyone claiming to be a Son of Feanor?

Publicly claimed Sons of Feanor at the moment are JNV and Devo.

[Kasimir he/him]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can people start with items? Araris making you his Heir seems reasonable and if he started with a shield that would make sense, but I think he probably would have told you if that were the case. Did you claim to have got the shield before JNV said they made it for you? I think leaning unlikely is probably a good way to lean though.

Yes, people can, AFAIK. You know my policy on outing people who don't want to out themselves though, so I will just say I'm aware of multiple cases.

Imagine how thrilled I am that Araris died before I could get a PM >>

I made the shield claim at 1138hrs my time - JNV PMed me about making it at 1141hrs. It's worth noting that JNV asked me in a PM if I wanted a shield at 0809hrs (rollover takes place at 1000hrs for me.)

I think my issue is even if JNV retroactively claimed it, the point of bringing it to the thread is to make sure there is no other V!Smith claiming the Shield. So either it came from Araris (whether through Heiring or randomly, now that Symph has claimed to have made Danex a shield) or it came from someone else, in which case we're back to making sense of whodunnit based off known and corroborated actions.

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But yeah, TL;DR is that I thought his TUN read was overused and therefore an easy choice that showed lower effort than I'd have thought from Araris, and that he focused on that read too much, only branching out on his elim reads to vote the person voting him. As a supporting point, activity levels being much lower than his village game from a few weeks ago (which is a different thing than a CC) and the crack theory at the end to solidify my vote.

Okay, this makes sense to me. It's a bit curious to me that this sort of nudges around the fact that taking the obvious vote because it still has to be done is very much a part of Araris's own meta, but I can see where this makes sense from a 'is he going after obvious low-hanging fruit' sort of angle. I still raise an eyebrow at the activity point but it's less a 'you're Evil' kind of eyebrow raise and more 'my brother in Eru, V!Araris has had low activity games before' kind of deal (hi early AG8!), so it's an outlier but IDK if it's one that'd trip my flag.

33 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Friendly reminder that you also voted Araris a few hours into D2, and I didn't see any reasoning from you :P.

Friendly reminder I leaned Village enough to back off of him after his response to pressure, so my Araris read powers are still intact :D. (I will not be held responsible the next game I back off of him and he's actually Evil, shh.)

Question for you, Mat. Are you willing to lynch Danex this cycle?

11 hours ago, Archer said:

Edit: To respond to Kas, I think the players would be expected to be adverse to exing the Messanger. It's also a good role for the elims to have so they can spy on PM's, lessening the might of what should mostly be a strong village back channel situation. So Dannex is a Messenger Malkor who faked using the role C1 when they converted someone, then did use it this round. I have no idea if that's consistent with the rules

Sorry - missed the edit the first time around. So I don't disagree with this possibility, but for this to work, he'd more or less have to have converted Mat by your stipulation. (Or made an insanely lucky guess about Mat and Araris having no PM - which do you think is more likely?) This also means that Mat had to have put in the kill C2, which is possible. 

What will you do if Danex flips Village? For that matter, your E!Danex world seems to hinge on E!Mat because you generally rely on Mat being converted. If so, why not push Mat prior to Danex?

Edited to add: ACK SORRY FOR THE DOUBLE I WAS TIRED AND THOUGHT THERE WAS ANOTHER POST I WILL CHANGE IT IF NECESSARY AAAAAAAAAAAA

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kasimir