Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[Ashbringer he/him]

I've been a part of several Elim teams that get immediately put on the defensive by an Elim dying or nearly dying in the first cycle. The D1 exe is the best starting point, because otherwise we're just dealing with whoever the Elims (and/or Coinshots) decide to try and kill, which means we'd be down a few players to start.

And Village Coinshots would be in the same boat of the D1 vote if they got to go first, only they can't talk to anyone to figure out a plan. (Or they could, but claiming D1 as a Coinshot is a... risky strategy. I'm not big on roleclaims in general, let alone early ones.)

Even if it catches a Villager first, we need to start somewhere.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I had a reason to keep the vote for Conq but now it's gone with the Xino vote seeming more reasonable.

2 hours ago, The Aspiring Archivist said:

That's very elaborate. Does he usually do this?

Shining's done extensive reads lists like that as an elim and a villager, though this is earlier than usual.

59 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

And that's the biggest thing, when it will happen regardless of me, why should I bother unless I'm confident in my opinion?

The point is that it's not about you, it's to help other people get a read on you by indicating your priorities.

[---]

Devotary is village, lock it in

this one i actually mean ok :P.

Also TUN, when you refuse to vote it not only makes it impossible to find you as a villager (which makes it harder for us to hit elims) but it means we actually have no evidence to go off of for the D2+ exes. Sure the Elims will kill people and that means something but they will always kill someone they want, and that never benefits the village (if they're smart at all)

Also the idea that D1 exes kill villagers more often than not is simply not true. Most likely if you think that it's recency bias or whatever it's called

[Stick. she/her]

13 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Any particular reason for that? 

Spoiler

 

Not gonna lie Shining's reads post is looking a whole lot like AG8 Hyena's D1 reads post just thought I'd point that out.

 

edit:

4 hours ago, The Aspiring Archivist said:

That's very elaborate. Does he usually do this?

Meta question. Interesting, coming from a new player. 

Edited October 24, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Kas - Seems to be having fun so far :P. @Kasimir, why'd you vote Ash? He's now in the lead in the VC I think and potentially up for lynch.

Whoever had named Terrific Birthday Disaster had committed an act of child cruelty.

[OOC: Not exactly my opinion and not directed against you, Shining, but man Araris what were you drinking...and can I have some of it?  ]

Welcome to Tyrian Falls, I guess. Whyever the rusting hells so many parents had collectively decided to name their children TBD was beyond me. For some reason, a tiny suspicious part of me wondered if his Lordship'd had a hand in things. Seemed as like to come out of his sense of humour, or what passed for it, if you asked me. Work for a man long enough, fight with him, and you get a sense for how he is.

Thing is, I'd've said that about Etam for a long time.

Looked like my thoughts were returning to Etam today. Figured it wasn't surprising. Man'd just died, after all.

I'd been taking a walk, outside the local watering hole, and now I'd retreated there like a wounded beast to its den, a bottle of Dyring's brew in my hand. Just a little, to help me think. Just a little, to take away the edge, I figured.

Some of the Village'd been engaged in a lively discussion about whether or not we should be keeping the eyes peeled for any Spiked. Waste of time, I figured. Tipped the bottle to my throat. Say what you like about him, Dyring makes the best aquavit in town. Only borderline legal, but borderline's good enough for me.

Edvan Tyrian'd never, ever liked the idea of uninformed suspicions. Keep your own view, and I most certainly did, but I'd figured you'd've a better chance of stopping an ashfall with your breath than getting the likes of Edvan Tyrian to change his mind. 'Course, maybe some of that talk was for the benefit of the new faces. Though sometimes, I didn't know if they were new to Tyrian Falls. Maybe the drink was doing a bigger number on me than I'd figured.

[OOC: Not interested in that voting discussion. Think it's useful to let the new players know that the consensus position is not represented by TUN's view and is captured by Araris's, but no one is going to change TUN's mind at this point and I consider it a tangent at best.]

'Course, a few people'd been sticking out feelers. Asking me all careful-like, why I'd said maybe that Derrick* [OOC: Ashbringer] chap was maybe a Spiked among us. As if I believed that, so early into this dance. Wasn't that much in my dotage, no. 

[OOC: @Ashbringer - Let me know if he's publicly known as Faleast and I'll edit the character name if necessary but I get the feeling you're not running AraRaash openly this time around.]

Thing is, Rylim Libran [OOC: Bookwyrm] seemed new to this business. Probably something about the nobility keeping their young apart from the rest of us, as though being skaa was something you could catch. His Lordship, he was good about this. And maybe I hold it against them as don't. Still, thing was, I'd been pretty ready to say I figured Rylim was on the up and up. Asking people how to go about this business of finding Spiked, voicing suspicions...well, that didn't seem to me like the sort of thing the Spiked'd do, if you get my drift. Figured they'd have their own ways of talking. Back in Luthadel, anyone wet behind the ears in a crime ring doesn't just ask an ordinary skaa how to go about burgling, if you get my drift. Be lashed for that. No, they ask their fellows. Thieves have their ways about it, you can be sure.

So that was a good point, a point in his favour, that Rylim did. Still, I figured there was something that wasn't making sense to me. 

Thing is, when you deal with them as green as grass, sometimes you want to be sure. Stack the deck, gather a bit more information so you feel comfortable about what you've been thinking, you ken? Figured that with Rylim being so green they'd sell him in the apothecary, and Evenlyn Royale [OOC: Cinnamon] being supposedly just as green, but I had my doubts about that one, she moved and talked like someone as seen this sort of crem before... Well, I figured there was something to be gained in adding my own quiet whispers to their talk about Derrick*.

;eyes; [OOC: Stick] (and whoever had named that poor sod deserved to die in the Deepness for ever and ever!) [OOC: See disclaimer about TBDs] had slightly jarred this by voting for Edvan Tyrian, but I figured not overmuch. Edvan Tyrian was condemning himself, and I doubt anyone felt he was like to keep his voice there when he stood in danger of the hempen jig.

Still, the thought was something like this. Seen enough greenhorns get jumpy, get twitchy. Hard to be comfortable running off so little, and I judged that as was common, their suspicions of Derrick were paper-thin. Couldn't be helped, of course, nature of the beast. But suddenly being one of the voices who'd condemned a man to the noose...that sort of thing made greenhorns twitch, maybe. Figured it was worth taking a look. Couldn't rightly have said why, either. Something about it nudged me there and I'd learned to listen to my gut a long time ago.

But that was the rub. Someone as new as Rylim, I figured he wouldn't have the steel to damn a man to the noose. Fact was, Rylim hadn't blinked at all, and he'd ample time to do so. Wasn't until Derrick'd questioned him, that Rylim'd entertained other thoughts. That didn't ring true to me, not with how green Rylim was supposed to be.

[OOC: I regret everything about RP style. In translation - I've gone on record in a few early PMs as stating I lightly/potentially V!read Bookwyrm for that opening with defeaters. I voted on Ash not because of Ash but because I wanted to get a gauge of how Cin and Book responded to that vote turning their votes into likely lethal ones. And sort of gut about taking a look there, which might always be informed by players pushing the new card - for which I blame LG5. Cin's reactions so far are a bit more seasoned than raw new player, but Book's opening was very much screaming newness and I was hopeful to get a slightly more honest response from Book. My judgement was that if it was E/E distancing on anyone's part, I'd potentially expect an early shift when the stakes still are low, since there's not much of a competitor train. Aware of the current Elim team meta though. Cin digging her heels in there makes me think she might not be E/E with Ash, though I am not confident in this judgement.

I am more interested in Book staying put. In a V!Book world, I don't really judge he has reason to know whether Ash is Village or not, given Ash had made one post prior to that, though some after. I'd expect a player this uninformed about voting to be a bit more twitchy about potentially being a vote on a lethal train that killed a Villager (since V!Book doesn't know whether Ash is V or E) and to go elsewhere. As much as we say that Villagers shouldn't care about looking suspicious, I think really, it takes experience to develop true Villager dgaf. This is why new players often do not vote, or go for edge voting. Book does entertain the idea of hopping but had repeatedly logged in without much reaction before he was explicitly called on his vote by Ash. That makes me think that Book's reaction, which runs counter to his opening, might be more coached, e.g. by an Elim doc.

I am willing to be talked around as I am not confident I am reading this correctly. But this is where I currently am, and I figured I'd throw it to the thread to chew on.

As a side note, I'm ? about Cin digging her heels because I genuinely don't know where grounds for suspicion comes from. And that does make me also wonder if an Elim doc would have suggested this route.]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Not gonna lie Shining's reads post is looking a whole lot like AG8 Hyena's D1 reads post just thought I'd point that out.

I'd heard of the legend of Hyena.

Still, I figured that wasn't the sort of thing that you talked about, not without...breaking things. More than they already were.

Wondered where that was coming from, where ;eyes;'d seen it.

God, I needed more aquavit.

Part of me wondered if it wasn't too late to run, too late to drink myself into an early grave at Dyring's.

His Lordship wouldn't know, and surely his Lordship wouldn't care.

And yet.

I sighed. Figures I hadn't drunk all of my principles into sodden oblivion, yet.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Kasimir
As requested, all Faleast are now Derrick.

[Ashbringer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: @Ashbringer - Let me know if he's publicly known as Faleast and I'll edit the character name if necessary but I get the feeling you're not running AraRaash openly this time around.]

Oh that's a good point...

Let's bring Derrick back, he was fun

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh that's a good point...

Let's bring Derrick back, he was fun

[OOC: As requested, I've changed every 'Faleast' occurrence to 'Derrick'.]

[Just a Silvereye he/him]

Well I am completely lost. I have a handful of slight village learns, but nothing solid so far.

Gonna take my vote off Mat, but I don't see anyone to give it instead so I'm just gonna leave it in the air for now.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

...I'm changing my vote from Ashbringer to Kasimir. Partly as a retaliation vote, and partly because it's weird to change your vote like five times.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

9 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

9 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

uhhhhh
Mat
because sword vote and my commitment to this joke is stronger than my will to live

Y'know, I dislike sword votes. Poke votes are fine, but Danex no me gusta

I feel like one of these times it's going to be E!Dan trying to blend in.

Consider yourself moved to the slight elim list :ferocious+intimidating eyes:

5 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Not gonna lie Shining's reads post is looking a whole lot like AG8 Hyena's D1 reads post just thought I'd point that out.

I found that post. I'm definitely not that organized

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

"Heartfeel" Reads (minimal logic, emotion-based instinct reactions - subject to change as new posts roll in - list order does not matter)

• Coral Swan: Coral's opening posts felt pure to me, and I agree with everything they've said. Will reevaluate later, but I'm removing them from my D1 pool of suspects.
• Saffron Iguana: Like Pearl and Coral, I don't believe past AG distros will have an impact on this game (or if they do, we'd never be able to predict without info from deaths). Casting their opening post aside, their lighthearted tone is disarming, and their question to Pearl about Seekers being strong for elims feels like genuine solving / seeking. 
• Magenta Albatross: I'm getting relatively new player vibes, and their questions don't seem to be forced (like a spiked might do in thread for credit). Leaning village.
• Scarlet Octopus: Font choice makes their content more difficult to parse than I'd like, but I like how thorough their initial vote was. Their subsequent tunneling of Pearl is both offputting and reassuring. Leaning village for now, though I'd like your opinions on more players .
• Salmon Meerkat: Oh boy, I both love and hate Salmon already (no offense on the hate :P). Your posts are like chaos incarnate; fortunately, I found your post with the Sunburst vote to be Chaotic Good rather than Chaotic Evil. Leaning village for now, though I expect your chosen playstyle will cause me difficulty in the future 
• Chartreuse Penguin: I would like to see more than a vote count and a vote on an inactive. why Violet? More importantly, why not anyone that's posted?
• Emerald Falcon: "brain no worky" is it working now? Any thoughts?
• Fuchsia Ostrich: Although their first post was tiny (RP nonwithstanding), their nonchalance toward number of spiked is comforting somehow. Very light village read.
• Mauve Crocodile: For the most part, my read of Mauve was pure neutral. I'm not sure how I feel about the retraction off Pearl and subsequent encouragement for people to vote elsewhere. Possible E/E?
• Melon Dingo: one post, one analyzable paragraph, and its RP semantics do you have any opinions on the players so far?
• Oxblood Beagle: Only responded to Emerald's "brain no worky" with "mood." PLZ GIB MOAR 
• Pearl Chameleon: If I had to vote at the same point as Pearl, I'd probably have done the same as them for the same reason. I have more thoughts on their posts since being put on the defensive, but I'll need to do a proper analysis isolation of the people involved before I take one stance or another. 
• Turquoise Gorilla: Amusing RP, albeit NAI. Need more (or longer posts) to establish a baseline feel. @Turquoise Gorilla
• Amethyst Scorpion: Hm, this might be the player with my least favorite opening post. Not a fan of the firm language (I.E. "so the elim team will be weaker.") Possible slip?

So Hyena was a spiked elim now that I look at it.

@_Stick_, if you have something to say, you can just say it

8 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

7 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Would you rather turn in a test with an almost perfect score last, or turn in a test with a horrible score first, then take the test again and turn in a test with a slightly better score last?

And that's the biggest thing, when it will happen regardless of me, why should I bother unless I'm confident in my opinion?

To return to the previous metaphor, if I have a passing total grade regardless of if I turn in the test, why should I take it unless I'm confident I would only improve that score?

 

I respectfully disagree. I believe that Elims are catchable based on slight mistakes D1, and even if we lynch villagers, Elims' posts from earlier and their reasoning for their posts give us more info to work with.

If we all had that mindset, then it'd be really easy to hide in "trying not to be wrong".

And also, one of these times, E!TUN could easily just pretend to not have enough evidence to vote and hide among the masses.

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Shining's done extensive reads lists like that as an elim and a villager, though this is earlier than usual.

What can I say, sometimes you just gotta start early

Keep 'dem elims on their toes 

14 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

...I'm changing my vote from Ashbringer to Kasimir. Partly as a retaliation vote, and partly because it's weird to change your vote like five times.

Hahahaha check out my previous games.I do that a lot. Speaking of which....

I have no idea why I voted Illwei last night. I wasn't feeling good about Wiz, but I just voted without much evidence. I'll take a look again later. Might change back to Illwei, but I realize that I didn't give it as much thought as I'd like to for my votes.

Right now I'm looking at <Illwei, Wiz, Dan> and might as well take another look at Bookworm after Kas's post. Also not feeling too good about Ash and Archivist. A point for Ash in that it seems like he's gotten a lot of attention for what seems like a little bit. @The Aspiring Archivist, any thoughts on anything I've said? Where do you stand?

It seems like I have a rather large pool but honestly I think my vil lean is still bigger in this game right now 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Partly as a retaliation vote, and partly because it's weird to change your vote like five times.

'Course, I figured, it was definitely weird to be suspicious of multiple people, or to change your suspicions based on evidence, or the state of your thoughts. Can't ask for anything more suspicious than trying to see if you could provoke some response, neither. No, sir, this is Tyrian Falls.

Only a fool would do that. No doubt we'd find the Spiked by jabbing our fingers at the first person we saw, and keeping 'em firmly there.

Absolutely no question about it, at all.

Needed more of that aquavit. Wasn't sure how I was gonna last the day.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

VC according to my reckoning

Devo (0): Kas<1>
TUN (2): Shining<1>, TUN, _Stick_<2>
Cinnamon (1): Ash
Silvereye (0): Mat<1>
Bookwyrm (1): Wiz<1>, Kas<4>
Ash (1): Bookwyrm<1>, Cinnamon, Kas<3>
Wiz (1): Mat<2>
Conq (0): Devo<1>
Alv (0): Stick<1>
Stick (1): Xino
Xino (1): Conq
Mat (1): Silvereye<1>, Danex
Turtle (1): Wiz<2>
Kas (1): Bookwyrm<2>
Illwei (0): Shining<2>
Danex (0): Kas<2>

Edited October 24, 2022 by Shining Silhouette
edit VC

[Alvron he/him]

Shouldn’t Bookwyrm have a 2 next to them since they are valid votes on them currently making them tied with TUN.
Also, Kas, how could you vote for a Wyrm? Or do you think they are an imposter Wyrm?  

edit: for some reason it didn’t quote the post above mine but that is where the first part is directed.
edit two: just saw Wiz has another active vote elsewhere so it’s only one on Wyrm not two. It’s 4:30 in the morning give me a break.  

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

22 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Shouldn’t Bookwyrm have a 2 next to them since they are valid votes on them currently making them tied with TUN.
Also, Kas, how could you vote for a Wyrm? Or do you think they are an imposter Wyrm?  

edit: for some reason it didn’t quote the post above mine but that is where the first part is directed.
edit two: just saw Wiz has another active vote elsewhere so it’s only one on Wyrm not two. It’s 4:30 in the morning give me a break.  

My mistake! Partly through making it I had formatting errors so I copied from an earlier version. Must've not changed everything

Please everyone lmk if I messed up in other places

[The Aspiring Archivist any]

3 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Right now I'm looking at <Illwei, Wiz, Dan> and might as well take another look at Bookworm after Kas's post. Also not feeling too good about Ash and Archivist. A point for Ash in that it seems like he's gotten a lot of attention for what seems like a little bit. @The Aspiring Archivist, any thoughts on anything I've said? Where do you stand?

I don't know. I haven't posted a lot because I'm not really sure what to say or do. I don't have a great gauge for what might indicate someone as elim or whatnot. I think it's interesting that some people are advocating for an educated vote while some people go completely randomly, but that might just be individual playstyle.

[Stick. she/her]

TUN

Silvereye

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well, now there's no train above 1 vote.

That's not going to get us anywhere.

Cinnamon Bookwyrm

@The Bookwyrm what feels weird about changing your vote? Especially D1 where pretty much all info is from the progression of posts and votes as the day goes by?

Also curious about Dannnnex and TUN.

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Bookwyrm (0): Wiz<1>, Kas<4>

[OOC: Bookwyrm is a count of 1, from me.]

3 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Also, Kas, how could you vote for a Wyrm? Or do you think they are an imposter Wyrm?  

[OOC: I point you to Wyrm's complaint to Orlok the other day:

Spoiler

Would find a way to RP post this but I just took painkillers (as usual, happy to bluetext if necessary) and am ready to go sleep so this is not going to happen.

Using two very crude measures because I CBA to do it properly.

 

Not Voting Today:

-Stick [natural opening in PM closer to AG8, plus more engaged than in LG89]
-Shadow [think that move is a bit risky for E!Shadow]
-Cin [can't see E!Cin doubling down or being advised to double down]
-Alv [not sorry, don't play with this guy enough]
-Devo [a bit doubtful but I think I'm beginning to ID E!Devo after a while, and my gut just feels it's V!Devo.]
-TUN [feels like a mode shift from their Elim play, paralleling the QF and the LG.]

Ok With Voting Today:

-JNV [want to say they feel different from E mode, but honestly I'd have said that in LG89 too. Just watch and read posts closely.]
-Illwei [Think the sky will fall before I read her right but will keep trying]
-Conq [Have never seen Conq's E meta, but just do not feel one way or another on Conq]
-Silvereye [Had been writing a post on Silvereye before Silvereye ninjaed me. Response to Danex joining on Mat is more what I expect from new players, cf. Bookwyrm]
-Bookwyrm [Mentioned my thoughts, Stick, you, Mat raise good points, result is a wash for me.]
-Danex [Don't want to apathy clear, and E!Danex can play rando.]
-Xino [Kind of agree, kind of disagree. Xino's playstyle is all over the place, and I can cite games where E!Xino was also fairly engaged (BT2) and games where E!Xino wasn't engaged/low engagement (LG89, that conversion MR) so I feel like it's a wash.]
-Ash [Don't feel one way or another rn.]
-Mat [Am not sure where I stand on Mat but also DK if Mat is too busy. Need to compare with Archer's MR.]
-Turtle [Hasn't shown]
-Shining [No real playstyle difference, understand Stick's concern, so result is a wash. Sorta E!Shadow vibes too.]
-Wiz [Don't see Mat's case on Wiz, but don't really feel positive about Wiz either, just a wash. Have IDed E!Wiz before but that involved a faction game so not sure how much that applies.]

Of all live trains, I see: <TUN, Cinnamon, Bookwyrm, Ash, Mat, Wiz, Stick, Xino, Turtle.> Stick, TUN, and Cinnamon are non-starters for me for today, I don't mind Turtle but recognise it's a bit of a rubbish train at the moment because Turtle hasn't shown, meaning it's more a pragmatic compromise. Arguably you could say it'll try to force Turtle's teammates out of hiding to defend Turtle but I just feel this is not going to give much grist for discussion so IDK if it really is a good train. Could say I am :| about Wiz for that, since it's a very safe space to stash his vote but I don't really know it's worth reigniting the poke vote debate for. I don't like it as a move but I don't think it's something that is particularly outside of Wiz's player profile to do. @Matrim's Dice, thoughts on that, since you're the resident Wiz watcher? Bookwyrm will be me agreeing to stand where I feel and to trade off being able to affect the lynch for this, though admittedly I am already making that trade-off by going to bed at a sane hour.

Part of me feels that it feels quite low temperature so far, which might indicate Elims don't consider vote dilution a threat/no stable votes on an Elim. 

And Stick just pulled off TUN because this has been open in post editor forever. Joy to the world. 

And urgh Ash just moved onto Bookwyrm.

FFS.

Staying put it is then, goodnight.]

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

'Course, I figured, it was definitely weird to be suspicious of multiple people, or to change your suspicions based on evidence, or the state of your thoughts. Can't ask for anything more suspicious than trying to see if you could provoke some response, neither. No, sir, this is Tyrian Falls.

Only a fool would do that. No doubt we'd find the Spiked by jabbing our fingers at the first person we saw, and keeping 'em firmly there.

Absolutely no question about it, at all.

 

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

what feels weird about changing your vote? Especially D1 where pretty much all info is from the progression of posts and votes as the day goes by?

...Hm. I seem to be in some error.

I don't have a very good feel for what and what not is suspicious, considering this is my first SE game. Now that I step back and look at the entire situation, it does make sense to switch around based on how the evidence moves. This is D1, though so it really is hard to tell for sure who is actually acting suspicious....

Well. I'm in a weird position. If nothing changes here, I get killed. Which I don't want to happen. I need to think about this carefully....

Wow, SE is weird. That's why it's fun, though.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My current official (and hopefully correct) vote count:

Spoiler

Book (1): Ash
Turtle (1): Wizard
Xino (1): Conq
TUN (1): TUN
Illwei (1): Shining
Ash (1): Cinnamon
Mat (1): Dannex
Stick (1): Xino
Conq (1): Devo
Kas (1): Book
Silver (1): Stick

Also, please bold your votes, most people are doing this already and it drastically lowers the odds of me making a mistake.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Ashbringer he/him]

7 hours ago, Just a Silvereye said:

Well I am completely lost. I have a handful of slight village learns, but nothing solid so far.

Gonna take my vote off Mat, but I don't see anyone to give it instead so I'm just gonna leave it in the air for now.

 

51 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, now there's no train above 1 vote.

That's not going to get us anywhere.

Cinnamon Bookwyrm

@The Bookwyrm what feels weird about changing your vote? Especially D1 where pretty much all info is from the progression of posts and votes as the day goes by?

Also curious about Dannnnex and TUN.

Silvereye canceled their vote and I moved from Cinnamon to Book.

Edit: also Book is voting Kas now

Edited October 24, 2022 by Ashbringer

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Imagine if the VC stays like this and it gets decided through RNG. I'd prefer to have a say in it, though. 

Illwei

Ash

[Mat he/him]

This will probably be a bit more concise than I'd like (future Mat about to post this is laughing at past Mat and shaking his head at past Mat's ignorance) due to it being the school week but we'll see how this goes. I'm more suited for PMing back and forth right now but whatever  Rereading the turn, and like three variants of the same reads list:

---

Variant One, AKA Typical Reads List:

• Ash: Questioning Bookwyrm is good but I guess he didn't like their answer :P. I think I default to Null- for Ash but I think Null here. Some linkage to other elim reads that I'm noting for later, though.
   
• Wiz: I think the only fair place I can put Wiz is in Null, since I have an extensive history of voting v!Wiz early and here I am voting Wiz again. I still don't like the timing of his vote or the lack of other posts so idk. I guess he did poke Turtle (@Kasimir-- my gut says that's normal for Wiz but I'd have to check) but that doesn't make me lean one way or the other. I think I'll probably defer to the majority regarding Wiz for now, which is awkward since a few people want to defer to me  
   
• Conq: I like his xino thought, and he's been friendly in PMs. Less active than normal but I think I'm ok leaning slight village. Would like to see more from him though.
   
• TUN: I think his nonchalance is more village indicative than not, but this post makes me pause since it's not all that nonchalant... Null-. Getting ganged up on about voting feels like it should mean something but idk what. Opinions are entitled to be had. Unsure as usual.
   
• Illwei: Her start reminds me of last game where she was elim but also that's just how Illwei plays so that's not a valid point. I like her xino take, it makes sense. Null+
   
• Shining: I'm like legitimately scared to village read Shining, there's a few things (more than usual engagement, possible links with other elim reads, testing the waters for suspicions in PMs like I've done as elim before) but also I get a village tone in general from him. Slight village but warily. He's a good player.
   
• Cinnamon: Retaliation votes Ash, then apologizes but doesn't unvote which is odd to me. In that same post they ask why Illwei said xino was village, which is the most thread interaction they've had outside of voting and I think that's notable. I think I land slight elim here because of that xino link, but also because of their retaliation vote, in a different way from Silvereye in that their retraction-but-not-really seems like it could have come from coaching. Since that'd be a weird thing to do by itself, imo. Idk maybe I just don't like retaliation votes
   
• JNV: I'm slightly put off by how strongly JNV made their poke vote stance clear this game as opposed to other games, but I proved to myself that's NAI and so I suppose I resolve to Null. But if I went off my gut it'd be a very small elim lean. So I guess Null-
   
• shadow: Absent, but with reason so that's fine. I know Kas sees her claiming village as v indicative but I don't. Null.
   
• Archivist: I know they've posted but I cannot for the life of me remember what it was even though I just reread the thread. Null.
   
• Silvereye: Retaliation votes me then walks it back, which... eh. I see where Stick is coming from. Slight elim.
   
• Dannnnnnex: On one hand, the sword vote continuation is a great way to not contribute and saying there's nothing to talk about is demonstratably false. On the other hand I buy that v!Dannex does that anyway :P. I think Null- though.
   
• xino: I think Illwei's comment is valid and it's interesting to me that she didn't vote him. Also interesting to me that Shining v read xino out of the gate. I think I defer to Illwei's take here. Slight elim.
   
• Devo: Since my D1 reads are dubious anyway and I have trouble reading Devo (getting better though!) I'll default to Kas' read and say Null+ as I have no idea. Revisiting this later.
   
• Bookwyrm: Lean slight village if I had a gun to my head. I think there's a possibility they've had coaching within the elim doc, but ultimately their thought processes (especially their Ash vote) read to me as sincere and wholesome, things which the Spiked are not. The Kas vote I don't think happens if the e!Bookwyrm's teammates have talked about Kas in any detail at all in the doc (assuming v!Kas) but idk if both are e how that would work :P.
   
• Turtle: Hasn't posted, Null.
   
• Stick: I like her vote jumpiness. That's subject to change if the people she hopped off of start flipping elim, but for the state of the D1 thread I think it kept the pressure and focus moving which is useful. Slight village.
   
• Kas: Not getting the vibe I did when I IDd e!Kas in the thread or in PMs and that's good enough for me right now. Slight village.
   
• Alv: Null, though I am eager to find out how many elims he can kill if he's village

---

Variant Two, AKA Copying Kas:

Wouldn't Mind If They Died (Not Necessarily Who I'd Vote Though):

• Ash, Wiz, TUN, Cinnamon, JNV, shadow, Archivist, Silverye, Dannex, xino, Turtle, Alv

Would Mind If They Died (AKA Definitely Won't Vote):

• Conq, Illwei, Shining, Devo, Bookwyrm, Stick, Kas

---

Variant Three, AKA Typical Tier List:

Kas, Stick
Bookwyrm, Conq, Shining
Devo, Illwei
shadow, Archivist, Alv, Turtle, Ash
Wiz, TUN, Dannex, JNV
Cinnamon, Silvereye, xino

---

I don't think I could live with myself if I killed v!Wiz D1 again, but I'm not throwing my gut out the window entirely either. I trust myself late game much more than I do D1 so I'd rather save Wiz for then. For today, I think I'll propose xino as a countertrain to Bookwyrm-- I'd rather not kill a new player D1 (besides, leaning village there) and I think Illwei's case is alright (though she didn't ever vote, which is interesting) and Conq and Stick both seem okay to me at the current stage (voting xino/voted on by xino, respectively). Not directly opposed to Ash either and if the trains stay as there are (ha) I'll vote there over Bookwyrm. It does look like rollover is at a bad time for me being online though.

@ me with questions and things, off to be productive since this took way too long :P.

---

VC for posterity (and Araris) which is hopefully correct:

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
• Ash (2): Cinnamon, Shining
• Stick (1): Xino
• Xino (2): Conq, Mat
• Mat (1): Danex
• Turtle (1): Wiz
• Kas (1): Bookwyrm
• Silvereye (1): Stick

[xinoehp512 he/him]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
• Ash (2): Cinnamon, Shining
• Stick (1): Xino
• Xino (2): Conq, Mat
• Mat (1): Danex
• Turtle (1): Wiz
• Kas (1): Bookwyrm
• Silvereye (1): Stick

I can second this VC.

Ash, for the sake of self preservation. 

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
• Ash (3): Cinnamon, Shining, Xino
• Xino (2): Conq, Mat
• Mat (1): Danex
• Turtle (1): Wiz
• Kas (1): Bookwyrm
• Silvereye (1): Stick

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by xinoehp512

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Sorry Xino, it's not you, it's me. I know I said I v read you but times are different, things aren't as they used to be. People are saying things.

16 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

These are subject to change at any point in time throughout the game, but here are my thoughts so far.

Ash