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Cycle Four: Scholarly Insanity

Vinnie viewed the expedition differently, now. Those rocks... they changed everything.

All throughout his life, he'd journeyed back and forth across the forests. He'd lost many friends, but always had been aware and skillful enough to survive himself. Sometimes at the expense of others, though the time of his life when he valued only himself was long in the past. But no matter his age, who was with him, or what they were doing, one thing had brought them together through it all.

The instinct of survival.

Those rocks had been sabotaged. Deliberately. That much was obvious. He'd carefully examined the rocks further and found them all to be identical. When he thought about it, the attempt was laughable-- such a stretch of an attack, with no guarantee of success. And yet, it almost had. The absurdity of setting up a bare firepit in the middle of the Forests of Hell apparently counter-acted the absurdity of spiking some rocks with the hope of drawing blood.

But Vinnie could only come to one conclusion. Someone-- or multiple people-- were not here for the purpose of the mission. They were on their own suicide mission, here to kill everyone else. The idea was both thrilling and terrifying. Vinnie felt like he was living in one of the old stories, filled with intrigue, mystery, and blood. Those stories had always made it seem so glamorous, and he'd bought that entirely. But he could see now that this wasn't the case. Nothing could be worse than governing a crew where you couldn't tell the difference between the sane and the insane.

His crew, it would seem, agreed. They were extremely angry about the sudden strike from the saboteur, especially Keen. Vinnie couldn't help but wonder if the older man was faking his dramatic outrage. He had thought it interesting that Keen seemingly came out of retirement for the mission. This would, however unfortunate the news would be, explain that.

The target of most suspicion, however, was a man called Wylir, and Vinnie begrudgingly admitted he could see why. The scholar was already a bit crazed; throughout their journey he had snatched up leaves and traces of dirt for study, and spent long nights awake documenting his research. The fascination seemed unhealthy to Vinnie, but it wasn't his position to judge another's life choices. His crew, however, felt that there was no one else in a better place to have sabotaged the stones.

"But Jal was the one to accuse Jo," Wylir had argued. "Obviously it's them."

While that was true, Jal had not been the only one, and in the end Wylir's counters were all rendered as inferior to the case against him. Jeffrey Jeffrey had turned to Vinnie and asked permission to apprehend Wylir, and though he resisted the idea he reluctantly admitted that they were better safe than sorry. So Wylir had been tied up, and now sat against a tree, under constant watch.

The whole business made Vinnie want to turn back and go home, but he figured that was probably what the saboteurs wanted. Hopefully now that Wylir was under guard, the rest of the mission would go smoothly.

It was half past midnight when he was proven wrong.

Wylir moved like lightning, springing up from his area of confinement. He had been thoroughly tied and gagged, but was able to stand and leap around without aid of his arms for balance. His guards had dozed off, and while Vinnie was awake he had been lost in thought and could do nothing but watch as Wylir threw himself at a knife held by his guard, who started awake to find Wylir bleeding out on top of him. The gag fell out of his mouth, and he began to cackle.

"They're coming!" He gurgled. "They're... coming..."

He slumped over, hitting the ground solidly. Dead.

The whole exchange happened in less than ten seconds, and it was enough time for Vinnie to reach the scene as quickly as he dared. Though he doubted running would make the situation worse, with that much blood all over the forest floor.

As they had the previous night, Shades appeared all around them, angry red eyes blazing. "Forget the silver!" Vinnie bellowed. "RUN!"

Despite his words, he grabbed a handful of silver dust in his left hand and clutched a knife in the other and sprinted the opposite direction. He could hear his crew behind him, though he didn't know how many there were. In his experience, a short sprint did wonders in escaping from Shades-- it seemed counterintuitive, but slowing to a walk soon after beginning rarely did more harm than good. The mess left by Wylir would be helpful in their escape.

Per his thoughts, Vinnie slowed to a walk and raised a hand, signaling the others to do the same. He tensely raised his knife, but they only had to fend off a few shades, which they easily did. As the group continued to move through the forest, Vinnie took a headcount. Everyone was here.

Somehow, they had all survived.


The Bookwyrm was executed! He was a Shade with Silver Dust!

Vote Count:

  • The Bookwyrm (5): Ashbringer, xinoehp512, JNV, Kasimir, The Wandering Wizard
  • JNV (1): The Bookwyrm

Cycle Four has begun, and will end in about 24 hours on Friday, November 11th, at 10am PST.

A few things to remember:

  • You may create a single 1-on-1 PM this turn. It must include both myself and Devo.
  • There will be an execution this turn, with no vote minimum. Tied votes will be RNG'd.
  • One action is allotted per turn, to those with the ability to take one.
  • Failure to post will result in a 40% chance of death.
  • Failure to vote will also result in a 40% chance of death. (Unless you're Turtle, in which case failure to vote has a 50% chance of death).
  • If a Shade is executed today, Violation will take effect.
  • Refer to the rules doc for any further questions, or let myself or Devo know.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @The Wandering Wizard - Jeffrey Jeffrey
  2. Archer - Gale - Crewmember
  3. @Kasimir - Silas Keen
  4. @Turtle - Old Ben
  5. The Unknown Novel - Mat Rims - Crewmember
  6. The Bookwyrm - Wylir - ShadeSilver Dust
  7. @Ashbringer - Not Sure Who
  8. @JNV - Jal
  9. Shining Silhouette - Jo - Crewmember Fenweed Sap
  10. @xinoehp512 - Onyx

 

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Does this outcome happen if violation hits someone with silver dust or what?

Yes. I never decided whether to have it be more like an attacked/survived, and don't have a problem with revealing that if Devo thinks it's better :P.

Edit:

2 minutes ago, Turtle said:

are people notified if their silver dust was used?

Also no, but I also can change that if Devo wants since I don't feel strongly either way. And Silver Dust isn't used up, it's just always there.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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I was under the impression it would just skip them as if they weren't voting, then rolled on the people without dust.

... I don't have dust.

 

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
  • Failure to vote will also result in a 40% chance of death. (Unless you're Turtle, in which case failure to vote has a 50% chance of death).

Huh?

JNV

Edit: Oh. Right. The vote thing stacks.

@Turtle why not just vote on a side train and instead risk the this thing?

Edited by Ashbringer
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Just now, Ashbringer said:

Huh?

It's cumulative. Turtle didn't vote last cycle so the filter increases by 10% for them.

JNV - there are Wiz and Turtle worlds, I think, but JNV is most likely. Turtle's announcement may have come late in cycle, but if Wiz had the time to post, Wiz had the time to withhold the kill.

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Just now, Ashbringer said:

I was under the impression it would just skip them as if they weren't voting, then rolled on the people without dust.

Nope. If the RNG hits someone with dust, that's it, it dies off.

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Huh?

Not voting is accumulative. So if Turtle doesn't vote again, the chance of death is 50% instead of 40% for the rest of you.

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6 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Huh, so the violation hit me and Turtle roleblocked JNV.

Were you told this? Because if not, I think I know what we can expect from this cycle.

(I know, no copying/referencing your GM PM, I just wonder. Simple Yes / No works.)

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1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

No, I was told nothing in my GM PM. So I'm assuming it hit me, because I'm the only person I know that has silver dust.

Oh dear.

JNV claimed silver dust.

I'm expecting a claim-off.

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also tonight should be comparing E!JNV to E!Turtle. E!Wiz a bit, but it still shouldn't be exelo this turn, and Wiz I feel is more V than the other two.

Appreciate.

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6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

kaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaas

why do you do this to meeeee

I'm the Last Son of House Urbain :P I will never complain about some paranoia and contingency planning is always wise.

But uh, it's also not my problem I'm actually Village and that Death still doesn't want to come for me yet :P 

Kinda puts Mat's "N1 Kas or I s2g he won't die" essay in LG90 in perspective I guess. For a while I was thinking he was excessive but I guess he's got a point? Maybe? IDK.

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

JNV claimed dust. And Bookwyrm had dust.

Odds they both have it?

Think it is possible by distro and would allow team to bus but feels to me like team should have at least one utility item, e.g. fenweed sap.

Edited to add:

Silver dust is probably easiest fakeclaim as Shade because Villagers are twice as likely to be affected by violation.

Edited by Kasimir
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JNV

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Think it is possible by distro and would allow team to bus but feels to me like team should have at least one utility item, e.g. fenweed sap.

Thing is, if the elims have fenweed sap why haven't they used it by now?

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6 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Thing is, if the elims have fenweed sap why haven't they used it by now?

That's why I'm wondering.

But there's another thing that doesn't make sense to me and that's the N2 kill on me. It almost makes me wonder if Bookwyrm called the N2 kill, because surely they should've realised that you can't double protect, so you were vulnerable, and I was a pretty good candidate for 'player who got Lurched since Xino can't self-protect anyway.'

In that world, might mean Bookwyrm's partner was inactive so Bookwyrm made the kill decision.

Edited to add: Like, to me, in any sane world, you are the vulnerable power role and the obvious kill. I can keep for one more cycle, so why specifically target me N2?

Edited by Kasimir
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I am going to double-post. I just lost a goddamned edit to the post editor and it is not worth it and I am not going to do this again. I don't care, I'm sorry mods but also not sorry, because I am really mad about losing most of my work through C1 to this goddamned post editor just because I wanted to summon an umlaut.

Did a mass re-read:

Cycle One

Spoiler

I still maintain this post feels very natural and off-the-cuff from Wiz, and shows immediate engagement with the game. IDK, it's carefree in a way I don't necessarily expect from an Elim trying to blend in. As I said previously, I also went straight from a celebratory one liner in the GM PM to the thread, noticed the rule issue, and got ninjaed by Wiz. Given Wiz's attitude towards an Elim rand and having a doc, and that we now know E!Wiz would be Evil with Bookwyrm, I have a hard time seeing E!Wiz manage to be this on the ball with the thread. Still V points for this.

I also really like this post from Ash and I think it comes from a Village mindset. It's hard for Elims to hit the game running - feels like they often have a quiet start to blend in or casual votes or long analyses posts for rules or RP. Ash just goes in and immediately decides that Wiz and I probably aren't E/E. That's a fairly natural bit of analysis that just slipped out. V points to Ash for it.

I am still not fond of Turtle's poke vote, but I have a comment on this later.

The more I re-read this, the more I sort of lean V on this. I'm not really sure that E!Turtle immediately jumps on my mention of Wiz not being in doc, because they know I probably meant something else. It's watered down by the fact that Turtle doesn't vote me for it, as you might expect if Turtle thought they caught an E!slip, but the natural question definitely is how I know Wiz isn't in a doc if I'm Village, so I'll give Turtle a bit of credit for this.

Relaxed engagement from Xino more reminiscent of V!Xino than E!Xino. Some LG90 Stick vote vibes here. V points to Xino.

Oh God thank Harmony this isn't a LG I'd be more mad if I lost an LG re-read.

Sure, this is very likely performative - nothing was at stake as compared to for Silho, and even then, debatable. But I'll note that while Villagers can always be unwilling to die (yes Mat, yes, I know), I am always willing to give a small number of Village points for willingness to die - it's less critical for Villagers than Elims.

First post from Bookwyrm here. Seems a tad opportunistic, but also just out of nowhere: why Wiz, when Silho and I also expressed willingness to die? Possible that Wiz is his teammate and so he's more comfortable poking Wiz. The alternative is that he's just more comfortable poking Wiz than Silho (lead train!) or myself, in case we retaliate.

JNV's post after mine, and after Archer's bombshell post here:

I know what JNV says, but their post is explicitly a 'please don't die to filter' vote on TUN. They mention maybe coming back but don't. V!JNV sometimes doesn't vote, but that's hard to tell in a game like this due to the filter.

I'm more concerned by JNV's failure to engage with Archer's post - IMO it was a deliberately provocative post (Archer acknowledges this) and I called the post JNV bait, but it really is. JNV tends to be sensitive to players doing apparently irrational things, and Archer courting a 40% death chance for a seeming V read absolutely is irrational on the face of it.

JNV mentioning later that they thought that Archer wouldn't really do it and that it was a V!Archer plan - I agree that JNV could be contaminated by later knowledge when explaining their reasoning to me, but the lack of comment at all on this post doesn't feel right to me, given the general negative reactions to Archer for it. I think there's TMI at work here. Evil points to JNV.

Note that JNV's silver dust claim seems plausible. Archer flags a potential soft.

Ash asks who everyone made PMs with. I like this. Some V points. Basic engagement with the game, seeking connections and patterns. I want to flag responses to this as I think they might be helpful as well, just to look at.

I immediately note I made a PM with Ash. Worth noting as well Wiz and JNV opened PMs with me - JNV opened one at about seven hours after the cycle began.

Ash notes he made one with Wiz.

Archer claims a PM with Xino.

Some analysis/thoughts from Ash. Like this Ash :)

On 11/8/2022 at 6:42 PM, Ashbringer said:

Could kill Bookwyrm. Evade.

Ash, what's your reasoning here? Bookwyrm and TUN were your lowest tier, but you voted Turtle, eventually CWed on TUN with me, and killed Archer.

The dodging of Bookwyrm despite Bookwyrm being lowest on reads list does feel a bit negative. Mild Elim points here.

Rules correction with Wiz. More visceral sense that Wiz is more relaxed about engaging with the game here than in LG90. Village points. 

Worth noting that Wiz has JNV/Bookwyrm in highest tier. @The Wandering Wizard - aware you explained later, but am doing a sequential readthrough, so why? Possible E points, but not feeling this. I think Wiz is more a salting Elim than a ballsy Elim. Half a Village point.

Bookwyrm unvotes Wiz and votes on Archer with a post that essentially says nothing much - it's vague as all hell. We're never really clear why he feels his vote on Wiz was invalidated. The vote looks very opportunistic: he's the fourth voter on Archer, which makes me think the Elims favoured the Archer train and wanted to get the ML off if they could.

But I don't actually think the Elims all stacked on the Archer train. Too obvious, especially when Archer would eventually flip Village. The play would be to cast blame to me, or failing which, another member of the Archer train. This team doesn't have strong thread control so I don't feel they'd go for a full stack. If they had strong thread control, Bookwyrm C3 doesn't happen. I note that I think Ash would counsel against such a move as well as Xino, so V points to both of them. Let's look at the votes at the time of Bookwyrm's vote:

On 11/8/2022 at 11:41 AM, Ashbringer said:
  • Archer(4): Xino, Kas, Wiz, Bookwyrm
  • Turtle(1): Ash
  • Wiz(1): Turtle
  • Shining(1): Shining
  • Kas(1): TUN
  • TUN(1): JNV

IMO, this makes Wiz and Xino highly likely to be Village. More so for Wiz, because Wiz directly posted before Bookwyrm. Now, it's true that Elims may sometimes post and vote in a row, and there are two hours thereabouts between Wiz's post and Bookwyrm's. But Wiz voting Bookwyrm already makes Archer the lead train, and Bookwyrm was on Wiz, which means even if they are teammates, Wiz wasn't in particular danger, especially not with me defending Wiz. I don't see an impetus for Bookwyrm to move a nice, distancing vote if Archer is already the lead train via teammate Wiz.

So Village points to both Xino and Wiz here.

Remember I flagged the Turtle poke earlier? Turtle votes Bookwyrm now. I'm leaning towards giving this very mild V points for not being a distancing vote - it's a natural response to Bookwyrm's sus vote here, and moreover, if Turtle was an Elim who'd just gotten on, Bookwyrm is a natural place to just dump their vote, knowing they'd remove it and pass it off as a poke anyway. Free distancing.

FWIW @Ashbringer - it's maybe something that doesn't look at obvious since it was hidden in a meme, but in this post, I tag Bookwyrm and ask if he'd be willing to CW on Turtle with me since he likes retaliation votes. This is what I mean by my priority was to save Archer - my favoured CW was actually Turtle, who I suspected and was voting on. I figured if Bookwyrm was on, that vote might be a possible sell. If I'm Evil and teammates with Bookwyrm, that's risky - if I know Bookwyrm won't be on, that's an unnecessary connection; if not, I'm asking Bookwyrm to make an endangering vote which we both as Elims know will get him sussed as all hell.

Turtle's vote is a self-pres vote so it's really hard to read into this. But I do like the 'change my mind ig' - indicates willingness to possibly go elsewhere, and we've established that the Elims wanted an Archer ML if they could. Slight V points, taken away for pressing on Archer as that can't be read. Net effect: zero :P

FWIW this actually reflects my shift in mindset. I was jokingly asking Mat if he'd go on Turtle, but realised Bookwyrm was not responding and I needed a CW as I really didn't think Archer was Evil off his last posts. There's no way in hell Turtle would CW on Turtle and I V-read Turtle, so this is the point I panic and ping everyone I see in the thread, asking them if they'd be willing to go on TUN. He's not my preference, but I've seen him as null- and null in enough reads I figured he might be a consensus CW. I also figured Turtle might not get choosy if they wanted to live.

I also explicitly state I'm fine if someone wants to counterpropose a CW or talk me back into Archer. No one does.

@Ashbringer - You say you still like Archer, but why then were you voting Turtle? This was prior to Archer's self-pres.

I could see E!Ash not liking the CW because he'd rather a dead Archer. But Ash also agrees to switch if Shining and Turtle agree, and I think that's not a commitment E!Ash makes lightly, so leaning V here.

Turtle here resists moving to TUN. Normally I'd E!read this since we have reason to think Archer was the preferred ML, but this shows that Turtle is being cautious despite self-presing and isn't about to let that override their null+ on TUN. I do take that as a fundamentally Village attitude - Turtle isn't going self-pres at all costs and is wary. I'd expect E!Turtle to be more gung-ho on TUN because with Book MIA, there is no one left to save Turtle, and Archer self-pressing means Turtle has a 50% shot at death.

And Ash, just FYI - here I explicitly ask Shining if he wants to go back to Turtle. The TUN pile was actually partly inertia since I was down for going all on Turtle since Archer was also on Turtle. The problem was that with Archer swapping to TUN and the large train size, I didn't fancy further hops - LG79 reasons. My priority was to keep Archer alive by CWing on someone I didn't have a V read on and we needed an intact train for that.

Turtle is very lost and asks why Silho wants to go back. I think the lostness isn't what an Elim who is one of the lead trains and with a missing teammate would feel. A second point is that I don't think Bookwyrm goes MIA if his teammate is this much in trouble and Ash never saw Bookwyrm on. V points to Turtle.

Turtle screaming instead of going TUN and holds on to TUN read despite volatility and potential Turtle endangerment. Asks why TUN. Feels very genuine, Village points to Turtle.

I think E!Ash is indifferent here. Or would favour the Archer CW in order to stab me.

I don't see what E!Wiz gains by switching. See point about the Elims wanting an Archer ML if possible.

Exhibit T: Lost Villager.

In Summary From C1:

Quote

-Ash, Wiz, Xino, and Turtle look very Village

-JNV looks somewhat Evil (cf. non-reaction to Archer.)

-Elims likely wanted Archer ML -> we can see this from Book stacking on to Archer as the fourth voter. This also implies the preceding Archer train is likely pure <Xino, Kas, Wiz> because there is no need to get Book to make a very suspicious looking vote when Wiz was already making Archer the lead train. Also, when Archer flipped V, suspicion would go onto everyone on the train. Stacking the train means danger for the Elims, especially since we know this team doesn't have thread control.

-Turtle's EoD confusion and refusal to self-pres via voting TUN looks very Village, even more so than before. First, Book should not have been missing if Book's teammate was potentially in danger as a lead train. We know Book never reappeared at EoD, possibly to avoid having to vote on Turtle (saving Archer), as I invited him to. Moreover, Turtle should've been more stressed than confused: this would make Turtle an endangered lone Elim with no backup, making them more willing to self-pres and join the TUN train. This never happened.

-Book favouring the Archer ML also implies the TUN swing was very likely pure. This is because it had the effect of saving Archer. This means that Ash and Wiz both end up looking fairly Village.

Cycle Two:

Spoiler

By and large, my hackles are raised by Ash suggesting it's a WGG - tends to shade into Elim FUD territory over what should've been a straightforward clear. But Ash is also first to vote Bookwyrm. This adds to a trend of putting Bookwyrm under pressure consistently, which I don't know E!Ash does in a two Elim world. Too volatile. Some Village points.

Book is very sensitive to this vote and asks for reasoning. Not sure there's much to read into this, but:

@The Bookwyrm I just noticed your member title and I'm dying of laughter :P

This feels genuine. Book handled the Silho sus badly and if this was meant for distancing, I'd expect a choreographed pushback onto Ash from Book for more distancing points. V to Ash for this.

Again, I like this post from Wiz. Still more engagement with the game and consistent than he's shown in LG90, and I appreciate that he's suppressing paranoid possibilities - in an E!Wiz world, I'd expect more of the FUD he tried with E!Kas in LG90. This is a fairly definitive tie-off. V points.

Turtle vote from Xino could be vote dilution, but I don't really feel anything much about this post. Xino engagement levels continue to be good.

Ash claims the Archer stab. We've litigated the knife issue quite a bit, I think. Slight V points for this - easy for E!Ash to knife me and ML Archer.

FYI, does suggest that Turtle doesn't share a doc with the...many people I've had to clarify a WBG to :P 

Turtle has two posts that demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of Tent rules. I don't think Turtle is on a team with anyone who has a tent. This is just if we think someone is lying about their items.

In retrospect, I feel like Bookwyrm going on Silho could be protective - I'd already had a JNV vote, but it's also very opportunistic, as I'd expressed much suspicion of Silho. Given Book was under pressure from Ash about their suspicions, my read is that Book was having trouble generating authentic suspicions and ended up trying to sheep me by going on Silho.

Bookwyrm unvotes Silho by mutual agreement and retreats into the darkness. I think this is more reason to think that Book was just really responding to voting pressure. He leaves himself an out by saying his suspicions are still there and promises to vote again. 

Turtle theoretically favouring voting Bookwyrm over JNV is a good look. V points.

Very pure exchange between Turtle and Shining. V points. God, I'm just giving them out like candy at this point, right >>

Meaty post from JNV here. Let's translate:

On 11/9/2022 at 11:34 AM, JNV said:

Jal sat a little ways back from the fire and thought about things. Everyone had shown up and given a few opinions yesterday, so the deaths were no accident. No one was tripping over a rock and smashing their face in here. No, just accusations tossed around the fire and blood in the air. For expeditioners, these people sure seemed inexperienced in killing without bloodshed. The early names tossed around the fire were just banter and comedy, more of a game than actual accusations. [=Early votes had nothing behind them.] Bit of a dangerous game, but nothing too strange. Things started heating up with that Keen fellow's side-eye of Gale, saying that death-seeking for vanity's sake was useless and blatantly counter to the goals of the expedition. Got him so riled up he broke his vow of terseness. That accusation was strong as anything, and quite a bit better than theirs, to be honest. [=JNV agrees with my sus of Archer, but doesn't comment on it when they posted back then? Odd.] It was the accusations after that raised eyebrows.

That Jeffrey lad just followed Keen without thought or elaboration. Not exactly the most well-founded accusation, no matter how pretty the language used to deliver it. Same with that Wylir. Just agreeing, following like sheep. [=Note that JNV flags both Wiz and Bookwyrm for making opportunistic following votes.] The only thing more dangerous than someone with power is someone with power and sheep following behind. Gale came back with recriminations against the accusation. Not its contents or its reasoning, but its timing. Apparently, you've got to let nonsense simmer a little, let it contaminate the broth. Dubious, but then again, Gale was dead now, so it wasn't like they could pull any more of this out of their hat. [=JNV finds Archer's baiting strat dubious. Okay, fair, but then...why did you not point it out? Sure, this is Archer's explanation subsequently, and JNV is offline then, but this also just adds to my perspective that Archer's post should've been JNV bait. And it didn't actually attract response from JNV at all.]

Next was a vote from... Jal didn't remember their name. A fella in a shiny hat. Apparently, Wylir's joke accusation for Jeffrey, who'd been asking for death in what Jal assumed was a joke, had not gone over well. [=I am trying to work out if this is a bit kinder to Bookwyrm, and I sort of think it is. Shining gets sussed here for not having reasoning, but Bookwyrm gets off with a joke vote? Odd.] The shiny fella's immediate switch to Old Ben just after someone asking why they weren't on Ben was a bit strange. No justification, no reasoning, just action and reaction. After that, that Mat Rims fellow mentioned Jeffrey for doing something that someone else had also done. No justification for why they preferred the one over the other. If Jal hadn't been asleep while Mat Rims said this, they might have held to their first accusation anyway. [=See. JNV would sus TUN for no justification, but Bookwyrm's poke vote is okay? That feels like they're cutting Bookwyrm quite a bit of slack and they don't really extend that charity to others.]

Keen asked a good question. Why did Jal accuse Mat Rims right before dropping off the map? Well, they knew Mat Rims's sort. They'd faced many such people. They knew, deep in their heart, that no matter what fancy justifications they threw out there, they'd end up on Mat Rims sooner or later. Mat Rims or that Old Ben. Might as well get the going out of the way before the fire gets hot. 

From what other people were saying, the end of yesterday was a bit... hectic. Accusations were flying like mosquitoes, people changing their minds on a dime. Entire coalitions fluctuated between people, and somehow, the vote ended up against that poor Mat Rims. Jal wasn't exactly torn up about it, but they were a little annoyed that all the accusations seemed to be products of the heat of the moment rather than actual thought. Every single accusation against Mat Rims was meaningless noise, especially theirs. It wasn't the first time they'd gotten a man killed in absentia, and it probably wouldn't be the last.

Gale and Mat Rims were exonerated by the highest authority in the land. Of the living, Jal felt good about Keen. Then again, they always felt good about people who talked like every word was a knife balanced on the edge of a philosophical conundrum. [=This is a V read of me, FWIW.] They also felt good about that fella with the memory issues. Took a lot of courage to fess up to intentionally murking folk in the night, and the rest of their behavior seemed pretty clean. [=This is a V read of Ash, FWIW.] The rest... Jeffrey seemed attentive and focused, but Jal wouldn't sleep in the same tent as them, if you catch their meaning. [=Waffled suspicions of Wiz that aren't really explained.] Old Ben was the sort to talk a lot and not say much. It was hard to get a read on them. [=Null on Turtle.] Wylir was a little better, but the way they kept walking back all their accusations rubbed Jal the wrong way. [=You'd think this means that JNV has a better read on Bookwyrm than Turtle from the framing but they also mention being suspicious of Bookwyrm's retractions.] The shiny fellow... there wasn't much against them, but there wasn't much for them either. Same with Onyx. [=Null on Shining and Xino. Null on Xino is odd given Xino survived a NK.] 

Jal wasn't so good at deciphering people from their words, but they'd ended up a bit convinced anyway. There was always the risk of it being more confirmation bias than actual reason, but that fella in the shiny hat [Silhouette] was a a bit tonally strange and had weird accusations with very little foundation. A case could be made for Old Ben, but Jal felt most confident in the shiny fella. 

[So this is odd. JNV goes from a null read of Shining to a negative read of Shining, and a null on Turtle to a negative on Turtle, both one paragraph later. They mention that Bookwyrm has a slightly better read than Turtle, but suspicious retractions, and Book gets dropped. This is twice that JNV is kinder to Book than to other players they focus on. Possible distancing with Book and Wiz. The Book one stands out to me because it reminds me of how E!JNV softballed E!Turtle in LG89 - they tend to be less waffly about actual Villagers when Evil, so I don't expect a tainted V!read here.]

Some Evil points - JNV is fairly kind to Book compared to others in the same tier, combined with waffling and some inconsistencies. Potential partner for Book IMO.

Turtle has an immediate response to the PM question this time. Considers a Bookwyrm/Silho team.

Bookwyrm goes back onto Silho. I don't know/feel it's protective in this instance as I've just unvoted Silho. I think it's more that Bookwyrm is genuinely struggling to develop suspicions.

Another moment where Wiz gets Village points. Wiz asks Bookwyrm if he can put any reasoning to his Silho vote. In an E!Wiz world, I'd expect this to be a softball, choreographed with an answer from Bookwyrm that gets Bookwyrm some Village points. But nothing happens, which makes me lean V!Wiz.

I go back to JNV. FYI, I wonder if this is why the NK came to me. I seem to be the player aggressively pushing JNV in C2 and it might explain why the Elim team (Book maybe?) panicked enough to try to NK me. It could also be a noisy player kill, that's true. But it's just counterintuitive to me that Xino didn't get hit. This does connect in my head to JNV nulling Xino - potential preparation for a WBG play?

Ok, nevermind. Turtle expresses some willingness to go Xino - very, very mild E points. Bookwyrm is in PoE but Turtle not doing very much about it.

Wiz mentions a PM with Bookwyrm, and has Bookwyrm and JNV on lowest tier now. I feel that if Wiz wants to distance with Bookwyrm, he doesn't open a PM with Bookwyrm, because that just opens an Elim IKYK sort of question. That being said, I could see where you could read Wiz's post as distancing, especially since Wiz favours a JNV vote over Bookwyrm. Some Evil points here.

Turtle asking Silho for a simple reads is a pro-Village move. Some V points.

Ash throwing more sus on Bookwyrm looks good here. Some V points. Not too many as Bookwyrm isn't functionally endangered at this point - it's a JNV v. Silho fight. But that being said, this demonstrates consistency and this is more extensive a Bookwyrm push than I'd normally consider for distancing, especially since it's clear Bookwyrm isn't currently capable of holding up his end of a distancing brawl.

Turtle expressing willingness to join on Bookwyrm. Mild, mild V.

Yeah, more V points. Too sustained to be distancing. Dynamic doesn't feel quite right here.

I read this claim as slightly V. This comes very close to rollover, and as a response to my mentioning we need to claim at lylo because there's no point in keeping things quiet. IMO, if Turtle had been preparing to set this up as a clear, timing's a bit too tight for that, and there is no world in which there's a me/Turtle/Xino team. Not convinced Turtle could've immediately gamed it out and realised that being able to claim not RBing Xino matters. E!Turtle would expect me to be dead come rollover.

Orlok would give Wiz slight E points for this. I do this in his honour, but don't strongly feel it.

In Summary From C2:

Quote

-Ash comes out of C2 looking very strongly Village for sustained Bookwyrm sus. This matters because the consistency and the fact Ash hasn't been focusing too much on alternatives this cycle looks good - Bookwyrm isn't quite ready to threadbrawl, I don't think, and E!Ash thus probably doesn't go as hard on Bookwyrm.

-Wiz has a good interaction with Bookwyrm here too that seems V/E - like Ash, you might think that the interactions were distancing, but if so, Bookwyrm should've been better prepared to answer softballs. I don't think so. Bookwyrm clearly wasn't, and never responded to Wiz. I think that makes both Ash and Wiz look pretty Village.

-Some Village points to Turtle for some fairly pure responses, and the fenweed claim a minute from EoD, likely too quick to wargame the utility of claiming. Very mild Village points for willingness to vote Bookwyrm (mild because stated but didn't happen.)

-Some Village points to Xino for tanking the kill; nothing strong from Xino post-wise this cycle, I don't think.

-Evil points to JNV for inconsistency with Archer, and insulation of Bookwyrm from serious suspicion; mild distancing in reads likely given Bookwym blindspot.

Cycle Three:

Spoiler

Thanking the protector can seem a bit sus, but this is Turtle. Very mild thoughts of a Book/Turtle/Xino team >> Ok, let's move on.

Wiz engaging with the gamestate and assessing likely outcomes. I continue to get good vibes from Wiz and he gets some Village points here. I still think the difference with LG90 is very much night-and-day.

Pro-Village move from Ash. Village points.

Early and willing Book voter. Slight V points. Wiz flagged later in a PM he was trying to bait by going JNV, so if benefit of the doubt: slight V points.

Turtle's shift from earlier claiming a Wiz/Bookwyrm/JNV set with the Elims inside to taking it back here seems good, given Turtle's off-the-cuff way of thinking into the thread. I don't see this as an on-the-spot distancing decision. Some V points.

Could give Evil points here for going JNV, but positive if we give benefit of the doubt: cf. note on PM.

Bookwyrm comes up with a sus reads list post to handle the avalanche of suspicion coming his way.

It's worth looking at what he actually says:

Quote

The Wandering Wizard - Null, maybe a slight village lean. Nothing about him has stood out to me this game, but I don't know whether that's because he isn't suspicious, or if he's trying to keep to himself.

Kas - Villager. I haven't played much with Kas, but...there's something about his constant analyses that seem genuine. They're helpful.

Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though.

Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet.

Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean.

JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious.

Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up.

I feel like given it's a small team of two (our working assumption), Book is likely to have tried to distance. Voting Xino just seems Evil, given Xino made two saves in a row, and seems to come from a team mindset that would've hit me over Xino, imagining a potential Xino ML. Of all Book's Elim leans, JNV is the mildest, which makes that look more suspicious. E points to JNV from here. Book speculating a Turtle-Xino team and the fact that Book's reasons are flimsiest on JNV makes me think distancing - they are at least trying to have some substance for Turtle and Xino by claiming voting patterns.

Xino claims the protect, and goes onto Bookwyrm. Fair cop, given Bookwyrm's post. A good post from Xino too - he PMed me that his aim was to see if Bookwyrm could be induced to self-pres on JNV, figuring that a new player might be more reluctant to bus their more experienced teammate. The fact that Bookwyrm returns to the thread but doesn't actually take the bait and remains on Xino despite the tie does point lightly to E!JNV - and also V points to Xino for that line of thinking.

Turtle immediately groks what I'm driving at. But I can't be Oprah with Village points. I like it though.

I do like this. Thinking things through, natural Bookwyrm sus, and feels like Turtle probably would not have agreed with Book's post if Turtle had a shot and given timezones, I'd expect them both to be on a doc together. This is very stark because it feels like Book's post was meant to appeal to Turtle's mention of reads being rather Village! This is another thing that nudges me to E!JNV, FWIW. 

Moderate negative emotional reaction from JNV. Some valid points, but also, JNV isn't exactly in danger at this point. Let's break down JNV's post again:

19 hours ago, JNV said:

Im dropping RP cause Im a bit too fussed  to get into the style and cause Im going to die so it doesnt really matter but like Im not inactive people keep saying my inactivity is suspicious but Ive always posted at like one post every 24 hours its just less obvious in games with longer cycles its not really a big deal but Im getting kinda irrationally fussed at it like one person said it then everyone was saying it and as far as I can tell thats like the only thing going for me and if theres other reasons do tell [=It's possible to read this as an Elim arguing they shouldn't be caught this way, particularly given the strong negative reaction. But I don't think that's charitable and I don't want to do this to JNV. So we're moving on.] but yeah Im just a bit wobbled is it a recent thing like last game people were saying Id forgotten about the game cause I hadnt gotten on in a while like my low activity elvels are nothing new this is just me and gaaaaaah like its not a big deal it shoudlnt be a big deal but Im just fussed over it just very very fussed

Im kinda assuming I die today [=Why? That kinda doesn't feel like a Village mindset, given the votes are cascading on Bookwyrm and I'm the main person driving the JNV train with Wiz maybe backing me up.] I get it really I do I havent done anything with merit apparently when I die look at the people who should know my standard activity levels and perpetuate the myth anyway I have opinions theyre probably wrong but Im committing myself to trusting Kasimir cause I dont think theres a world where I ever dont and cause I think evil them would realize Im a villager evils want at endgame cause Im really bad at it and just sort of marinate me cause like the only reason people have gone for me is cause they said it first as far as I can tell Im also committing to village Ashbringer I dont think the knife is really viable in elim hands plus 50 percent odds at death as evil is a bit much and Im tentatively committing myself to village xinoehp cause of the Kasimir protect now given these assumptions now given these assumptions Ive narrowed my evil pool to Bookwyrm Turtle Wizard

Wizard I dont really like how theyve just been sheeping Kasimir like crazy like every vote post and opniinon is just a Kasimir opinion and like I dont really remember the way they play but like I feel like they usually have a bit more original thought [=Wiz negative for sheeping.]

Bookwyrm I dont like their vote remove vote on Silhoeutte it just feels funny it feels like vanity more than and like their reads list is just nothing its just entirely nothing dressed up with lots of wrods and a weird ocnclusion [=Bookwyrm negative for vanity unvote, and an empty reads list.]

Turtle well honestly I feel like my problem with Turtle is about them tonally not about actually reading them as evil they just dont play and communicate like Id expect and thats more of a me problem like Im sure they dont intend all of their statements to read like sarcasm so Im pretty sure thats just my brain being wobbly but like I have no reason to trust them [=Turtle reads weird]

[=Note that this section is inconclusive. Wiz gets a negative for sheeping, Bookwyrm and Turtle are more indeterminately in PoE. JNV doesn't resolve this and goes on.]

But the evils dont exist in isolation and theres at least one teammate so lets look at connections any connections at all

Wizards first reads list has Bookwyrm in the highest tier and Turtle in the lowest  but weirdly enough the reads list after has Bookwyrm in the lowest tier and Turtle in the middle but like italicized middle which apparently means could go up or down which really means they have no read on Turtle and this cycle they notably show a willingness to vote Bookwyrm that makes me a little hesitant to think theyre teamed cause like if Bookwyrm dies and the village mows thorugh the lower tiers Wizards not the first on the chopping block but theyre pretty early on in the line and if I get voted then Bookwyrm gets voted next kind of out of hand and same thing happens so yeah oh and by the way Wizard I do appreciate the memes [=Doesn't think Wiz is connected to Bookwyrm. Interesting point about willingness to vote Bookwyrm =/= teamed, seeing that JNV goes on to self-pres on Bookwyrm.]

Bookwyrm joke votes Wizard first and also like follows stylistically which feels organic in the most recent reads post they say Wizards kinda meh and Turtle like apparently theyve been voting with xinoeph but like heres the thing would evils really vote together when their lives arent on the line but yeah Im going to say Bookwyrm and Wizard mght not be teamed in a 2 evil world land but like where are the teammates if they exist like based on posts alone Id buy a Wizard Turtle team more easily than Bookwyrm Turtle cause I dont know if the evils would toss their votes on the same person twice in a row when that person is good but also like I think of Bookwyrm as more evil than Wizard and Im not entirely sure why like gaaaah I just dont know [=Sees Bookwyrm as being more Evil than Wiz, but thinks Wiz/Turtle team makes more sense.]

I kinda want to say more but also I got like three hours of sleep last night Im tired Im just going to vote Bookwyrm and be done with it I hope my reasons make sense also in the spirit of claiming and stuff I have silver dust so yeah no action accountability here sorry Ill be on for a bit but like do not expect brain poewr my brain is mush but Id be fine if people want to go for Wizard Im so tired please someone talk to me about life thinking is hard 

[=Willing to go for Wizard, voting Bookwyrm. Kind of odd if you see Bookwyrm as being more Evil than Wizard, but charitably, JNV was splitting the difference. But also IDK, why not vote Turtle if you're primarily looking at a Wiz/Turtle or Bookwyrm/Turtle team? If Turtle is your common denominator, best shot of getting an Evil is to offer a Turtle alt train? I do feel JNV accelerates to E!Bookwyrm faster than I can see, and it feels like a bit of justification for a vote that could fundamentally just be self-pres, but I'd probably just null this. I don't have very strong feelings about this one way or another. Either confused Village or distancing from Bookwyrm. In isolation, don't know which. In the context of other posts, I lean distancing.]

I kind of want to say considering Xino a null+ despite wanting to know if Xino successfully protected is odd, but given Turtle's explanation, am willing to accept this is a playstyle difference.

@The Wandering Wizard Specifically, why did you convince yourself Wiz and JNV were Village early on? What was your reasoning?

Expresses a JNV preference over Bookwyrm. Without benefit of the doubt, this seems E. With benefit of the doubt, I get why. No points here, either way.

I accept the point on the kill, though I note that E!JNV did want to kill me in LG84, and extensively lays out their NK thoughts there. I also would not be surprised if the kill on me was a Bookwyrm kill because I sort of think that most players in this game, JNV included, should know better and go for Xino.

18 hours ago, JNV said:

Ill be honest I know I dont really have a way to prove you wrong I dug this grave myself I dont have any merits or proof in my favor I dont have a real way to convince you of anything and honestly Im at the point in the game where I would normally put a lot less effort into providing any defense of my actions and just let it go except its practically lylo so yeah you get midnight oil JNV logic theres absolutely no reason wy you should trust me and the only reason Im trying is cause its actually important strangely enough but listen if you cnat find me village then go with yoru extensive list of reasons why Im evil and dont let me psych you out of it honestly Im too tired to be trying to debate right now

This is odd. And I give JNV both Village and Evil points here. It feels genuine to me, so they get Village points for it. But I'm also wary about 'proof' language - Mat used it in LG68 when his roleblock was gone, which was...odd because the whole point of this game is unless you have Confirmed Good Seekers or provable confirmed Good roles, nothing is proven, everything must be ascertained and judged in terms of plausibility. It feels unnecessarily cornered, and as though I'd made up my mind, and I hadn't, which was why I was engaging JNV trying to work out if I was tunnelling. It's the standard of proof thing again - we're in a game where even in that same cycle, Turtle still null+ed Xino. There's so much fog of war on the Village side that it's difficult to understand this mindset. It sort of suggests they're only seen as being Evil because they can't meet a really high evidential bar, and that's not really it. So Evil points here.

Ngl this post gave me paranoia about Wiz setting JNV up for a ML after bussing Bookwyrm and this is despite my having fairly robust V!Wiz credences >> This is what I mean by fog of war and the fact that on the Village side, you just don't get certainty. And oh, this is despite my agreeing with Wiz >>

HELLO THIS IS A BYE BYE DISTANCING VOTE

It's extremely telegraphed. I could see, in a V!JNV world, Book's teammate telling him to do that. But then who is Book's teammate? Based off how Books has been playing, this sort of feels like the more direct answer is the better one. This is meant to establish some distance on the way out.

Ash's OoA catch is fairly Village. Village points here.

Late announcement of JNV RB. Good job, Turtle. Village points :) 

In Summary From C3:

Quote

-Ash once again looks rather Village. Wiz can seem Evil but I think this has to be looked not in isolation but in context, and there remains good engagement from Wiz.

-Good pro-Village play from Xino and Turtle.

-Likely BYE BYE distancing vote from Book, and Book's PoE I think seems to suggest E!JNV more than anyone else. If Book was teamed with Turtle, that read list shouldn't have been that sus. Book's conduct in the early part of the cycle IMO suggests an absent teammate who wasn't really on hand to offer too much advice and I feel that this isn't consistent with an Ash or Wiz or Turtle teammate.

-Some Village points to JNV for tone at points, but overall Evil points for tonal/mindset/sus reasons - seems to feel unnecessarily cornered/no fog of war, and some vagueness surrounding Bookwyrm read that feels odd.


IN SUMMATION:

-I strongly V-read @Ashbringer. I think that Ash has consistently shown engagement with the game and the desire to help solve in pro-Village ways. I think that Ash had a very strong C2 of pushing Bookwyrm hard, and Bookwyrm shouldn't have reacted so suspiciously if Bookwyrm and Ash were teamed because that would be choreographed distancing. Ash's consistency on Bookwyrm also makes it unlikely that it was distancing. I think that given Bookwyrm's C1 votes, the TUN swing train was very likely pure, which inclines me to read Ash as being a Villager. I think E!Ash would have MLed Archer and stabbed me C2. I think Ash's paranoia of me fundamentally emerges from a very Village mindset and again, shows engagement with the game.

-I strongly V-read @xinoehp512. Xino feels more relaxed and engaged with the game, and so closer to LG90 Xino than LG89 Xino. Xino blocked two kills in a row. While a world in which Xino was doing so for Village cred is technically possible, it is very, very unlikely. In any normal game, a Lurcher who stopped two kills simultaneously would be a Lurching god. I think that should very genuinely give Xino Village credit. I also like Xino's C3 Bookwyrm vote to try to bait a reaction and read connections from Bookwyrm's reactions. I think given Bookwyrm's behaviour and favouring of an Archer ML, the four-vote Archer train was very likely pure. This implies Xino is very likely Village.

-I strongly V-read @The Wandering Wizard. On balance, I think Wiz is viscerally more engaged with the game and authentic than he was in LG90, and it shows at the degree of thought he's giving, and his willingness to assess without dragging in vagueness or FUD. I think that it makes no sense for Bookwyrm to make an extremely suspicious fourth vote on Archer if Wiz was already voting Archer and if they were teamed. That team gets more mileage from Bookwyrm maintaining a distancing vote. I maintain that Wiz's early responses in the thread suggest V!Wiz; this isn't consistent with E!Wiz who was teammates with E!Bookwyrm of all players. I maintain that I think the four-vote Archer train was very likely pure, which implies V!Wiz. Wiz also has a good C2 reaction with Bookwyrm that makes them unlikely to be teamed - given the fire that Bookwyrm was attracting, if it was a softball, you'd expect Wiz to coach Bookwyrm to respond in a way that attracts less sus. The fact Bookwyrm completely ignored Wiz's prompting for reasoning makes me inclined to think this was not choreographed and they are not teamed. Despite C3, I strongly believe Wiz is Village.

-I strongly V-read @Turtle. I think Turtle's response to the TUN CW is extremely genuine, and if Turtle and Bookwyrm were teamed, Turtle would be more worried than confused or trying to stick with their null+ TUN read and be consistent. This is because Turtle would be an endangered Elim with their only teammate gone missing. I think that Turtle's C2 claim for fenweed sap came at a minute to rollover and read as rather genuine - this also means that the fact the counterintuitive C2 kill on me didn't succeed further points to V!Turtle. Turtle could very easily not claim the fenweed, fenweed Xino, and then have Bookwyrm stab me. Turtle was just reminded of the limits on the tent rules via a conversation in the thread, so I don't think Turtle could make such a mistake. Turtle had some fairly pure C2 responses as well, and expressed some willingness to go onto Bookwyrm with Ash. I don't believe a Turtle/Bookwyrm team mishandles C3, because Bookwyrm would've had a teammate present to coach him on what was honestly a tonally bad response. Turtle also deserves credit for roleblocking the Evil kill. Thank you, Turtle :) 

-I moderately Evil-read @JNV. Honestly, this is a raw PoE thing at this point. But I've also laid out some of the reasons I think I'm still committed to E!JNV. I think JNV's C2 responses are tonally odd, and more consistent with an Elim perspective than a Village one. I do think JNV softwalks Bookwyrm at several points by lightly sussing him but never really committing to it despite going after other players in the same suspicion pool like Silho and Turtle. I still am haunted by JNV's nonreaction to Archer's JNV bait post. I am rather disturbed by what I consider to be a subtle Elim red flag in the emphasis on proof in a game that frankly almost never offers you utter certainty. It doesn't emerge from Villager fog of war. I think Book most clearly implicates JNV as his teammate.

Quote

 

Hi Future Kas. I'm very sure you will be rethinking this several hours later, but I want to remind you you spent a great deal of time poring over this. If you don't have good reason to override these judgements, trust me for once? 

-Past Kas

 

JNV.

If you are a Villager, ner vod, ni ceta. I will avenge you as a true Mando'ad should. But this is where I'm at.

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