Break Tank 3: Dueling at the Warcamps

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Anyway, due to timezones, I don't expect to be around when the thread heats up. Have managed to catch the flu again so I am going to be trying to sleep and/or read The Lost Metal. Have put in my stab order for the cycle, may Tyr guide our blades.

Get some good rest, get well, and enjoy unraveling the secrets of the coserme!

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Worth IDing a range of player targets you'd hit, or will that just make it easier for the TDs to sabotage? Prima facie I'm not willing to hit anyone within <TUN, Xino, Silho, Cinnamon> for obvious reasons.

 

It'd make it easier I'd think. Targets you aren't going to hit is just telling them where not to mark. I'm of the mind don't say who you're willing to target or not, and only claim after the fact. Your point does give the TD's a IKYK but they can always just submit another mark the next time as marks are permanent. Which isn't good for us, unless we can I.D. the TD's before they have enough time to mark us all. It would take a minimum of 12 cycles, going with the 6/6/4 world. Now a 5/6/4 world. 

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

No, they still need at least three more kills. If they still have immunity they have a better chance, or if very few people submit kills in even cycles.

Fewer kills also hurt them, since they need people to be shooting randomly to hit their marked target.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

This game is fast and crazy. 

Uh.....Kas.

Now, who to stab...

[Kasimir he/him]

57 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Because they claimed teams?

55 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

It'd make it easier I'd think. Targets you aren't going to hit is just telling them where not to mark. I'm of the mind don't say who you're willing to target or not, and only claim after the fact. Your point does give the TD's a IKYK but they can always just submit another mark the next time as marks are permanent. Which isn't good for us, unless we can I.D. the TD's before they have enough time to mark us all. It would take a minimum of 12 cycles, going with the 6/6/4 world. Now a 5/6/4 world. 

Adding Wiz to the conversation since it's the same thing.

Basically. The whole point, you [Devo] and Whysper contend, is that claiming teams gives them an incentive to Mark someone in Sadeas's Slayers this cycle to try to get the duelist pair kill they want to. For optimisation purposes. I don't really have a strong opinion since I don't understand this game beyond 'try to stab TD' and some stabs at the sort of dynamic that exists. Marking a claimed SS is only effective insofar as they think there's appetite to stab there. Since that's basically what the TDs want, or so you both think, I'm not inclined to play along. I think slight lopsidedness is more effective in helping us work out extra dispositions. Sure, they'll just mark someone else, or chance the IKYK, but we can't force them to not Mark anyway. Second best to me seems to be forcing them to go for the Mark strategy they'd really rather not have gone for, if they had a choice.

Like...how can we shape their Mark choices?

On the face of it, we really can't. They're going to Mark whoever.

If you think about it though, we sort of can/can't? Like if we're all committed to random stabbing, there's nothing much they can do there so they'll probably just go for whatever maxes their interests. But clearly their Mark strategy is going to be partly shaped by what we are saying here and their read of the gamestate and their tactical considerations so I guess we do have some say. This does assume they'd like people killed ASAP rather than waiting for the long term Mark/stab lottery issue. Just as I'm not sure I'm unconvinced they will try to also shape stabbing decisions. Probably made harder by the fact we're not actually discussing TD suspects in thread. I'm not sure that's a can of beagles I want to open right now. 

They could go for a Mark everyone and wait for us to eventually hit the stab lottery play, which I don't think I can rule out. But given the longer the game drags, the more they might worry we get lucky, I do wonder if they're gonna be cool with that. They get one Mark per cycle so I feel there will be some measure of prioritisation/decision-making/desire to mark the most likely target. You could say that it might've been better for me to not have declared who I wasn't down for hitting to force them to still mark among the SSes and waste the Mark. Maybe so. But to be fair, that'd probably still be a timebomb later in the game anyway. As Wiz points out correctly, the Mark stays. And it could very much be like a MR56 arson sort of Red Wedding, depending. So I sure dunno if that was the best move, yeah.

And yeah Wiz I don't disagree that they'll mark us all eventually. The hope is to start getting them out before that. Mat at least doesn't seem to think this will be a twelve cycle game - he was struggling to believe it'd even be nine cycles and I think one of Devo's projections was four cycles? IDK.

Full disclaimer that I have hot tea, a whole bunch of meds, and I don't know what I think anymore. I'm basically just throwing out thoughts to see if we can make some sense of them  

57 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

No, they still need at least three more kills. If they still have immunity they have a better chance, or if very few people submit kills in even cycles.

Hmm ok.

Turtle's an interesting Mark choice, though.

Where my NKA guy at >>

Edited to add: Goodnight if I am passing out before the thread comes back to life >>

Edited to add 2:

55 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Get some good rest, get well, and enjoy unraveling the secrets of the coserme!

ty!

Edited to add 3:

@Devotary of Spontaneity, thoughts on the fact no one has claimed the stab? Feels like the sort of thing where a counterclaim should be an instant call for a stabbing.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

What if we don't give out immunity? Then the TD's can't hide behind it and we have a greater chance of hitting a TD?

The TD's can still hammer and give immunity, but essentially this would be taking their greatest advantage.

So to even things out. Kas.

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Where my NKA guy at >>

Not me I stabbed Bookwyrm and it failed.

3614001481196494225225121529625324169

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

What if we don't give out immunity? Then the TD's can't hide behind it and we have a greater chance of hitting a TD?

The TD's can still hammer and give immunity, but essentially this would be taking their greatest advantage.

That's what I was wondering, but from the other angle: that with four of them, if they were minded to mess with the immunity, they'd just do it. But I do V!read Devo at the moment, however slightly - I'll admit it's just based off gut and her vibe rather than anything I'd take to the bank - and if I stick with that, then I have to also accept the conclusion the TDs weren't really concerned last cycle since one of them could've very easily tied off the vote by voting another player.

Same problem really: it's a reverse-lynch so the vibe is different and it might not be telling that there's no urgency. But I think we can all agree the energy just wasn't there in the voting.

I figure that if there's a fight for immunity, we'll maybe see it as player group size decreases and there are more latent Marks they want us to trigger. But IDK.

16 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Not me I stabbed Bookwyrm and it failed.

RIP.

Edited to add:

Like maybe think about it this way. I know I'm Village. I don't know about you, truthfully, but let's suppose you are. Opposite problem for you, of course. If I am Village and you are Village, then we had a pure Village train win by a single vote to grant Devo immunity. This feels like the sort of thing that only happens if Devo is Evil or if the TDs are comfortable with it.

I'm currently still okay with V!Devo for now, though again, admit I wouldn't take this to the bank. So the only other conclusion I have to draw is that the TDs are comfortable with it.

I seem to recall a number of the votes were really stable too, and also non-participation of > 50% of the player list, which just seems to underscore a C1 that the TDs (and most players!) were fairly comfortable with/

It stands to reason for players - only one Mark, and stabs don't kill so no one felt particularly motivated to anything.

Edited to add 2:

Sorry, my brain is scrambled egg right now. When I said that four of them could just mess with the immunity - Village is very divided this game and has no real incentive to vote together or even vote at this stage. Easy for four coordinated Elims to scatter and just mess with the votes for the outcome they want. Wouldn't even need a hammer at these numbers. For all we know, the Elims all voted.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Same problem really: it's a reverse-lynch so the vibe is different and it might not be telling that there's no urgency. But I think we can all agree the energy just wasn't there in the voting.

I don't think everyone feels the need to vote. I mean, if I don't feel really anything about anyone, I'd just not vote, rather than self voting. And it would probably be people on my side, since it's kinda a team game and I'd rather my side kill dummies than the other side.

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I figure that if there's a fight for immunity, we'll maybe see it as player group size decreases and there are more latent Marks they want us to trigger. But IDK.

19 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

IDK either. But if we start to stab at people who skew the vote later, that might lead to dummies. Possibly? Best direction for me to start in I think.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

I don't think everyone feels the need to vote. I mean, if I don't feel really anything about anyone, I'd just not vote, rather than self voting. And it would probably be people on my side, since it's kinda a team game and I'd rather my side kill dummies than the other side.

Yeah, basically. It's just the way the incentives are structured. I'd expect TDs to care a bit more but I'd reckon C1 shows they don't - yet.

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

IDK either. But if we start to stab at people who skew the vote later, that might lead to dummies. Possibly? Best direction for me to start in I think.

Eh, later as more people get Marked, I think the calculus shifts because people want immunity to be able to successfully carry out their win con. This goes away if they don't expect to be stabbed. But I won't disagree it feels like a good place to find TDs. But a lot of this depends on correctly modelling Elim team behaviour >>

*grumble cjiuyuf Shades hgcufeytfdwyu*

[Mat he/him]

One hour warning! Don't forget to submit actions!

• xinoehp512 (2): Kasimir, NerdyAarakocra
• Kasimir (2): The Bookwyrm, The Wandering Wizard

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Fewer kills also hurt them, since they need people to be shooting randomly to hit their marked target.

They can mark every cycle so it makes little difference to them whether they kill one person each C2 and 3 or two people C3. It's one more potential attack C2 in the latter case but that's worth it if there are fewer attacks overall.

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think one of Devo's projections was four cycles? IDK.

thoughts on the fact no one has claimed the stab? Feels like the sort of thing where a counterclaim should be an instant call for a stabbing.

Easy for four coordinated Elims to scatter and just mess with the votes for the outcome they want.

Since they now win if everyone dies, minimum is four cycles if they kill exactly two pair. If they kill unpaired it would be up to eight.

I think it means whoever did it wasn't around this cycle, since there's little reason for a villager not to claim.

I think the TDs will be very careful about not visibly supporting each other in immunity votes. One cycle of being unkillable isn't worth 12, now 11 attacks being more likely to hit.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

50 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Not me I stabbed Bookwyrm and it failed.

...I stabbed Wizard and it failed....

[+Whysper she/her]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Looks like apart from the Turtle shot, everyone else failed their action. I'm curious if everyone else put in a kill on a Villager, or if the TDs had immunity or just flipped well on the 50%. 

I would guess they used the immunity. I think it's best to use it at the beginning to keep around as many people as possible. They need to last as many turns as possible to get people marked.

I'm going to put my vote on

xinoehp512

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

My view has basically been said in exchange with Devo: that the more we establish, the easier it is for the survivors to catch the TD in a lie. Part of this does hinge on denying them the ability to keep disappearance numbers even and players making good C1 stabs, but if we can establish numbers, even numbers that have been tainted, then we can identify prima facie falsehoods. Like sure, we'll probably end up with 8/8 in a full claim scenario, but anyone who expected the TDs to call themselves TDs on C1 is delusional and should be taken to the infirmary. The point isn't that they will 'just lie' - it's that we want to catch them lying so that if we're still around by C3, we have a better idea as to where to go.

I just find this argument confusing. What are we establishing with claims that will catch anyone in a lie? There are only 2 factions. It is not like we are gathering claims on roles and can compare actions. We can't really catch anyone lying about actions or something. We can only look at numbers. And the numbers will mostly work out if the TDs split their claims.

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Second best to me seems to be forcing them to go for the Mark strategy they'd really rather not have gone for, if they had a choice.

So what are your options here? I'm not going to stab myself, and I'm willing to consider you and Wiz village for now. That leaves an only choice as someone who hasn't played in a year, or shooting blindly into a mix of unclaimed, which also has a lot of new and returning players.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

I think the TD's if they claimed assigned AA and SS amongst themselves (2 and 2) so the numbers would be balanced.

I also think they invincibleified themselves, so we learned nothing today. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Wiz

Sorry guys at the airport rn but I’ll be finally active when I get home in a couple hours!

[Chantara she/her]

Kas just to even it back out. Someone else can be the tie breaker between Xino and Kas. 
 

“I don’t think anyone expected a death so quickly.” Tara thought. She was both impressed and twice as scared as she had been upon entering the games. Though, it hadn’t been a Training Dummy, which meant they were going to be harder to find than she’d thought.

[+Whysper she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Like...how can we shape their Mark choices?

On the face of it, we really can't. They're going to Mark whoever.

We are shaping their Mark choices with our votes. They will assume that the people voted for are seen as likely Villagers, so less people are likely to attack them. So their Marks will go on people not voted for.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Whysper said:

I just find this argument confusing. What are we establishing with claims that will catch anyone in a lie? There are only 2 factions. It is not like we are gathering claims on roles and can compare actions. We can't really catch anyone lying about actions or something. We can only look at numbers. And the numbers will mostly work out if the TDs split their claims.

Pairs. The key word: will mostly work out, if they split their claims, if they get what they want, which is to keep the numbers even. Your entire argument is predicated on the idea this will work perfectly for them. I disagree because teams plan and then players happen, which fundamentally means chaos happens. In my view, as players start successfully stabbing and disappearing with their partners, and some sabotage happens, the plausible space for TDs to hide vanishes. Trying to pass as paired with each other is risky for TDs. And the more we can exclude people from the pool of "who tf are they even plausibly paired with?" the smaller the space for the TDs to hide in. You can correctly accuse me of being too optimistic we'll stab some TDs but my argument very simply put is you do not simply cook numbers and invent connections that do not exist and not expect that to come back and bite you later on.

7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So what are your options here? I'm not going to stab myself, and I'm willing to consider you and Wiz village for now. That leaves an only choice as someone who hasn't played in a year, or shooting blindly into a mix of unclaimed, which also has a lot of new and returning players.

It sure does. I've made my choice, but I agree the options aren't great. I will say my current conclusion is that C1 is plenty and I don't see a good way to keep with the standard SE hands-off etiquette. I would agree that if you hold to it, then your options are more limited.

Ngl if you really feel you can't ethically stab anyone else, you're welcome to stab me if that helps. I've played enough to be a legitimate target.

I do lean towards the unclaimed shot, and yet I also think it is...odd?

Like. Turtle. Turtle feels like an odd Mark. Closer to the low info Marks unless it's a new player who saw QF63 and made that call. But I'd still expect the Mark to go on someone noisier. Maybe it's my kill meta showing through again, but part of me also feels like that's not a new player call? IDK. I am for now suspecting lurker TDs, at any rate.

Just now, Whysper said:

We are shaping their Mark choices with our votes. They will assume that the people voted for are seen as likely Villagers, so less people are likely to attack them. So their Marks will go on people not voted for.

Whysper? I'd like to thank you for deciding you needed to summarise the rest of my post in one paragraph. Very economical of you! I appreciate this

[+Whysper she/her]

BTW, I think there is also incentive to take hero shots early. Like if there is someone that is highly V read but that you find suspicious and have a bad feeling about and you really think you should check, you better take your shot early while they are less likely marked.  

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Whysper? I'd like to thank you for deciding you needed to summarise the rest of my post in one paragraph. Very economical of you! I appreciate this

Oh sure, glad to help!  

Edited November 16, 2022 by Whysper
adding reply here to not double post

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Whysper said:

BTW, I think there is also incentive to take hero shots early. Like if there is someone that is highly V read but that you find suspicious and have a bad feeling about and you really think you should check, you better take your shot early while they are less likely marked.  

No real disagreement here. Minimises the harm Village-side, and I think even if they are Marked, Mat ruled that if they hit a TD that cycle, they win anyway and just sort of go out as well. Need to recheck the PM on this. Ultimately, it's a good time to do it, and you gotta work off your own reads, in the end.

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Oh sure, glad to help!

P.S. We do try to avoid double-posting, you might recall  Just mark the new post with an edit. Unless it is a vote, in which case never edit that in.

[+Whysper she/her]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

P.S. We do try to avoid double-posting, you might recall  Just mark the new post with an edit. Unless it is a vote, in which case never edit that in.

Yeah, I realized that right after posting and already hid the extra post and edited the previous

Edited November 16, 2022 by Whysper
changed "old" to "extra post"

[Elkanah he/him]

I appreciate all the work Kas is putting toward solving the game and think we should keep him around longer. Kasimir. I agree the Dummies are more likely to be lurking than actively working to solve the game, so I have a village lean on Wizard and Devotary as well.

I'll confirm for Devotary that I am AA

I'm awake now, so I can put a little more into the next cycle

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

I appreciate all the work Kas is putting toward solving the game and think we should keep him around longer.

Ngl...I really don't want to be around longer, and I hope that I will have Zened out of the game after having stabbed a TD, but we'll know in a couple of seconds  

Just in case, since I'm still awake:

Put in an order to stab Chantara. Sorry Devo, as you said, there isn't that much choice. Sorry Chantara if Marked shenanigans go down. It was a toss-up between you and Shshsh and the Sacred Coin told me to go for you.

Side-comment:

JNV hasn't been on in 22 hours. Last post dates to thirty four minutes after the cycle began. Unless the TDs used the immunity really early into the cycle (possible), there's at least a prima facie conflict between E!JNV and the idea the TDs went for the immunity C1. If you are strongly committed to the latter, you should probably be willing to less willing to believe in E!JNV.

Edit: RIP Mat hasn't locked thread yet. See Wiz, Elk, Chan, Devo.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Cycle's closed!

[Mat he/him]

Cycle Three: Commercial Break

*static*

*faint musical jingles which promote various food items, fabrials, well-tailored coats, shardblade stands, and axehound care products*

*more static*

*vigorous flute noises*

*even more static*

...

"AAAAAND we're back! I hope the reception was good! Up in the booth it's hard to hear anything, but I thought I'd take the time to try out our long-distance signals before the matches really picked up. My judgement was good, I think. You didn't miss a thing!"

---

Nothing happened!

Vote Count:

• xinoehp512 (3): Kasimir, NerdyAarakocra, Whysper
• Kasimir (4): The Bookwyrm, The Wandering Wizard, Chantara, Elkanah
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Shining Silhouette

Cycle Three has begun! It will end in about 12 hours, on Wednesday, November 16th at 9pm PST.

For a refresher, here's the rules doc.

• There will be a majority vote today, with no vote minimum. The winner of this vote will receive immunity from being killed during this cycle. This does not save from being removed if your opponent wins. Self-votes will not be counted. A tied vote results in no one receiving immunity.
• Don't forget to submit an action! The cycle moves quick.
• There is no inactivity filter in play, but do your best to post every turn.
• PMs are closed.
• If you did not receive a PM and you submitted an action, it failed.
• For further questions, refer to the aforementioned rules doc or contact me or Araris in your GM PM.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Shining Silhouette
2. @The Wandering Wizard - Lehaz
3. @xinoehp512
4. @Mr. Misting
5. @The Unknown Novel
6. @The Bookwyrm
7. Turtle - Zlaya Cherepaha - Aladar Attacker
8. @NerdyAarakocra - Khora
9. @dannnnnnex
10. @Cinnamon - Miguel
11. @Elkanah - Laelk
12. @Chantara - Tara
13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Kionara
14. @Kasimir - Keredin
15. @JNV - Jeleni
16. @Whysper

 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Well that's interesting.

I stabbed Bookwrym a second time, so that would make me think he's either not a training dummy or he has good 50/50 luck.