Metacognition he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 And the day is over! With the flurry of activity at the end here, I need a little bit of time to finish the write up, but I'll get it up as soon as possible! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metacognition he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Night 6: All Work and No Play Tyrian Falls wasn’t having the best day. Another round of people had been found dead and they found out that their food stores had been infested with rats, contaminating everything and making a prolonged siege impossible. On top of that, they had yet to find any of the culprits responsible! Even so, you don’t live in the shadow of an Ashmount without becoming a hardy people and they soldiered on. Even with repairs to the wall going slowly (tools seemed to break at every turn), they never gave up hope. They would fight until the end. Today, they put their fears of the Spiked behind them. The recent scout reports said the Koloss were only a few days out, depending on how fast they traveled, so today was all about rebuilding. They pulled together and decided that it was pointless to try to rebuild the western gate, not with the time they had, so instead they were closing it off completely. They used stones from the burnt barracks and were stacking them and sealing them; hoping to make a strong enough wall to deter the Koloss. “Put yer backs into it!” Cried a voice from atop one of the nearby homes. “In my youth, we’d haul boulders twice as big from sun up to sun down and then the next day have to move them back! Why, we’d have a wall that was 30 meters high by now!” Peng stood on his rooftop, “encouraging” the rest of the villagers below with tales of his past. Though he was well past his prime, he seemed extremely energetic, constantly waving his cane through the air, as he shouted down to them. “If I had stored strength, I’d show you whippersnappers hows it’s done! Put yer backs into it! If there were any metal in them stones, I’d lift them from here!” Most people just rolled their eyes and grumbled as they went past, continuing to work on the wall. “Hey guys! Look at this!” Cried Newan. “I finally figured out how to swing a sword! I’ll be a hero in no time!” Newan stood off to the side, practicing his “forms,” which he had mainly made up in his head. They were incredibly impractical to anyone who knew even the slightest bit about which end of a sword to hold. “Wow! Check this out! If I swing it like this, it cuts sideways!” “This is what’s wrong with yer generation; no backbone! Back in my day, the ash didn’t fall as harshly as it does today! Hey! Speaking of, you there! Get off of my ash! If you’ve got time to lean, you’ve got time to haul more stones!” The day went on and on. By the time afternoon was coming on, most of the town was grumpy, tired, and drained both physically and mentally. And they hadn’t made nearly as much headway as they hoped. their new “wall” wasn’t more than a few meters high. “Hiyaa! And take that! And that! How about another one of these! Ha! Nothing can stop me now! Don’t you guys worry! I’ll find those Spiked in no time! In fact, here, test me! I’m ready for it! Go ahead and throw something at me! I’ll block it with my awesome sword skills!” After having to put up with the two constantly rubbing it in the rest of their faces, the villagers had had enough. Someone chucked a baseball-sized rock at Newan’s head. Surprisingly, maybe he had learned something, as he actually hit the rock! It traveled up at such a crazy angle, that it clipped Peng in the shoulder, throwing him off balance. With a cry of startlement and pain, Peng stumbled around his rooftop. In his daze, he stumbled right off the edge and landed in a huge pile of ash. The villagers crowded around, expecting the worst, but seconds later, to both their relief and dismay, Peng popped out of the ash, waving his cane around. “I’m okay!” He shouted. “Now what are all of you doing, standing around gawking! Don’t you have a wall to build? Get back to it!” The villagers went back to their work; the entire time wondering how much it would cost to hire someone to, from here on out, sweep up the ash that piled up on their streets…. ____________________________________________________________________ Day 5 ends and Night 6 begins! You have 23 hours to get your orders in, as I try to keep us on track. No one died! Votes (4) Newan- Herwynbe, Reeco, Peng, Senn (4) Peng- Maill, Clancy, Wyra, Riew (1) Wyra- Baron von Piffertiff (1) Herwynbe- Newan (8) No Votes- Joe, Dom, Melend, Jain, Damon, Odustren, Larry, Ament 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peng the Just he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Oh, come on! Just because he didn't put his previous vote in green. *grumble* now we get to have this exact same conversation next lynch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metacognition he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 I have to be fair. I can't make exceptions and I waited till the very last minute. Sorry! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarcomere Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well, this is bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peng the Just he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 (edited) I know you had to do what you did. That last post may have read a little more angry than I meant it. You know the rules and so do I Edited January 17, 2015 by jasonpenguin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newan he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well, I guess nobody decided to sooth my vote. Good coinshot: Unless you have anything better to do, I suggest that you kill me. I honestly am good, but we just wasted a lynch, and I think that people are ready to waste another cycle lynching me. I'm sorry to everyone that I have only been semi-active this whole game. I was hoping to make it up to you all later in the game, but right now my presence is being very unhelpful to team good. So it's time for me to grow up and leave self-preservation mode. Kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seonid he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Alright...this is an interesting situation. There appears to have been a manipulation of the vote. Wyrm's vote was moved from Newan to Peng, resulting in a tie. That appears to be the only vote change. This leads us to ask the question: Why? Why not Soothe somebody else's vote and get Peng lynched? We have seen that they have a Rioter and a Soother to affect votes. So either they wanted a tie, or their Soother hit a Smoked person... Or this wasn't a Spiked action. That's the other option that I can think of. Anybody have other ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyrmhero he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 (edited) Actually, I don't believe that they have ever shown us that they have a Soother to affect votes, at least as far as I remember. Rioting could be the only thing they were able to do to fix the vote - and that's assuming that they had their Rioter on at rollover. The other alternatives are; that both Peng and Newan are Eliminators, but that doesn't seem entirely likely to me, or they want to tie the lynch again and waste our votes. At the very least, the fact that it is a tie will show us something if/when these two die, particularly with the last minute voting going on. Speaking of which, what was with the three votes near the end? We know they have a vote manipulation Role, you should never have put it anywhere near a tie like that. Alright, I know it shouldn't have been if one vote was retracted properly, but even so, it's still way too risky to not have a minor bandwagon at this point at the end of the Day (note, at the end only). Edited January 17, 2015 by Wyrmhero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mckeedee123 he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 (edited) We've seen soothings on nights 3 and 4. That implies that the eliminators have that form of vote leverage. Edited January 17, 2015 by mckeedee123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dowanx Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 My vote must of been soothed as it didn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarcomere Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well, Newan's convinced me. And if he truly is the Village Smoker he claims to be and Peng is also the Villager that I believe he is, then we're incredibly lucky that Pifferdoo's vote didn't go through and that this was a tie.I'm amending my first statement of the cycle: This could be good. As good as a game can be with zero Spiked deaths by the sixth cycle, at least. Which isn't very good, but still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeiryWriter he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Okay, so we didn't lynch any body last night, which if Peng and Newan are both Villagers (which I kind of doubt) would be a good thing. If however either one of them is spiked then we missed an opportunity. I would say it is too soon to say which, hopefully it's the former. On the me and Dowanx posting within minutes of each other thing. Technically this is my third game, but since I died at the first opportunity for the first two this is effectively my first real game, so yes I am a rookie. However not posting in such close proximity is Basic Strategy 101, I would be severely disappointed in myself if I made a blunder that huge. I wouldn't even feel bad if y'all killed me for it, I'd totally have deserved it. However it was a complete coincidence so please don't actually kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dowanx Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Wait when did we post close together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeiryWriter he/him Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Wait when did we post close together? http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/21612-ag-in-the-re-wake-of-the-koloss/page-28?p=217172#entry217172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarcomere Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 And there it is again. Responses were spaced out this time, perhaps, but this bothers me. This feels staged. I'm sorry, but I'm not inclined to believe in coincidences. Perhaps I'm grasping at straws, but straws are all we have now. I'd like all active Villagers to vote for and lynch Weiry tomorrow. I say this now because I might be dead tomorrow and what I say now will almost certainly kill me. I am the Village Soother who was Seeked by Aralis. I Soothed Riew yesterday, and received a confirmation that my Soothing was indeed recorded. Yet Riew's vote didn't change at all. Riew had been Smoked. And I have it on good authority that Newan's coppercloud was off last night. I trust Newan that he is a Village Smoker as he says. Three innocent Village Smokers accounted for. So Riew was Smoked last night, and Newan didn't smoke him. There is a fourth Smoker. And according to probability, the fourth Smoker is likely Spiked. Riew may either be the Spiked Smoker, or have been protected by this Smoker. Either way, I find that Riew is the likeliest Spiked right now. Please lynch Riew. Make a bandwagon. Blame me if that's what it takes. I want inevitability. I want to put something in motion that the Spiked will have no way of stopping or influencing even if they know exactly what our plans are. So I'm going to preemptively vote: Riew. I hope you can and will do the same. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeiryWriter he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 The thing is I compulsively check the forums. I'm here a significant portion of the day. So the fact that I saw and responded to a post (with literally just a link which took a minute to find) in a reasonable amount of time isn't exactly unusual.As I mention in my previous post this being done "on purpose" would require me to be a complete idiot. I reject the implication that because I responded to a post in a timely manner it means I'm spiked. (And if we /were/ both Spiked there is no way in Braize I would have responded to that in the thread).As for your Soothing of me, I certainly can't explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metacognition he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Day 6: Broken Oddities Herwynbe felt like an oddity wherever he went. He was the only Terrisman in Tyrian Falls, but more importantly, he was the only Terrisman he knew of that had Allomancy. He had never been able to figure out how that had happened. He had tried to trace his lineage back, but the Lord Ruler’s breeding programs made that difficult. His only solace was that maybe his oddity could help save this town. Not that he’d had much luck before this. He had innocent blood on his hands and he was starting to doubt himself. He thought he had good reasoning for every kill he had made, but every time, he had been proven wrong. If he killed one more innocent, he’d likely take his own life in shame. Riew was still favoring his arm a little, but it had mostly healed. He was also one of the last to leave the building of the new wall, which the villagers had worked on until the mists made it too difficult to see what they were doing. That made him incredibly easy for Herwynbe to follow. Riew stopped off at Reeco’s tavern/pizzeria for a late dinner and a drink before heading home for the night. Herwynbe stayed out in the mists, not wanting to be seen. He didn’t want to, as being out in the mists alone was a pretty good way to turn up dead these days, but there was nothing he could do about it. And hopefully, out of everyone in the town, he stood the best chance of fighting back if the Spiked attacked him. When Riew left, Herwynbe stayed as far back as possible; he could only barely make his target out in the folds of the mist. As they neared the town square, Riew paused, looking down at his feet and scratched his head as if he had seen something puzzling or had just thought of something. It was now or never. Herwynbe took out a single coin. He had shaved the edges down to make it sharper. Herwynbe didn’t believe in luck. He burned steel, the blue line to the coin jumping out at him. He held it in his palm, pointing towards Riew and with a final, silent prayer, he pushed. The coin zipped out of his outstretched hand on a perfect trajectory for Riew’s chest. Herwynbe almost couldn’t bare to watch. If he was wrong this time…. Just before Herwynbe turned away, the coin veered off to the right halfway between him and Riew. He jumped slightly, surprised by the sudden change and he heard his coin thunk into something wooden. Riew jumped at the sound as well and with a quick glance both left and right, he took off like an arrow from a bow, quickly fading into the mists. Herwynbe didn’t know whether to be grateful or disappointed in this turn of events. True, he hadn’t killed his target, but that also meant that he hadn’t possibly killed yet another villager. He turned to go back to the small tenement that he was renting, knowing that he’d have to still make this decision again the next night and the one after that and so for until the town was purged of the Spiked or the Koloss rolled over them. But at least for tonight maybe he could sleep peacefully, knowing that he hadn’t added to the list of those that he would have to apologize to in the afterlife. It was because he was so consumed in his own thoughts (and the fact that he had turned off his steel) that he never noticed the dagger arcing through the air until it was already buried in his back. ________________________________________________________________________ When the Villagers woke up to continue trying to rebuild the wall, they were greeted by three odd sights in the town square. The first being Herwynbe’s body. The second being that someone had swept the entire square free of ash. The third was that someone had used the cleared space to write an epic more inspiring than the Iliad: It is time for us to fight, and we do so not because we seek the glory of men, but because the other options are worse. We follow the Codes not because they bring gain, but because we loathe the people we would otherwise become. We stand her.e on this battlefield of our town alone because of who we are. Death is the end of all men! What is the measure of him once he is gone? The wealth he accumulated and left for his heirs to squabble over? The glory he obtained, only to be passed on to those who slew him? The lofty positions he held through happenstance? No. We fight here because we understand. The end is the same. It is the path that separates men. When we taste that end, we will do so with our heads held high, eyes to the sun. I am not ashamed of what I have done. Other men may debase themselves to destroy me. Let them have their glory. For I will retain mine! Yes, these are Spiked. Yes, we’re going to fight them. I don’t know what they can do. I don’t know why they’ve come. But we are here to stop them. I know you’re scared, but you have seen my messages in the night. In the town, the others mocked me and dismissed what I’d seen as delusions. Well out there, you see proof that my visions were true! Out there, you see what I have been told would come! I have been sent by the Survivor himself to save this land from destruction. I have seen what those things can do; I have lived lives broken by the Spiked. I’ve seen kingdoms shattered, peoples ruined, technology forgotten. I’ve seen civilization itself brought to the trembling edge of collapse. We will prevent this! Today you fight not for the wealth of a nobleman, or even for the honor of your Lord Ruler. Today, you fight for the good of all men. You will not fight alone! Trust in what I have seen, trust in my words. If those things have returned, then so must the forces that once defeated them. We will see miracles before this day is out, men! We merely have to be strong enough to deserve them. Today, men, I ask of you your lives. I ask of you your lives, and your courage. I ask of you your faith, and your honor— your strength, and your compassion. For today, I lead you to die. I will not ask you to welcome this event. I will not insult you by calling it well, or just, or even glorious. B.ut I will say this. Each moment you fight is a gift to those in this town. Each second we fight is a second longer that those people can draw breath. Each stroke of the sword, each koloss felled, each breath earned is a victory! It is a person protected for a moment longer, a life extended, an enemy frustrated! In the end, they will kill us, But first, they shall fear us! Citizens, do you imagine the future? The streets of the cities flooded with light, green branches on the thresholds, men just, the old blessing the children, the past loving the present, thinkers in full liberty, believers in full equality, human conscience the altar, no more hatred, the fraternity of the workplace and the school, for reward and for penalty, notoriety; to all, labor; for all, law; over all, peace; no more bloodshed, no more war, mothers happy! Courage, and forward! Citizens, where are we headed? To science made government, to the force of things recognized as the only public force, to the natural law having its sanction and penalty in itself and spread by its own self-evidence, to a dawn of truth corresponding with the dawn of day. We are tending toward the union of the peoples; we are tending toward the unity of man. No more fictions; no more parasites. The real governed by the true, such is the aim. I venerate you. Yes, you clearly see future ages; you are right. Citizens, whatever happens today, through our defeat as well as through our victory, we are going to effect a revolution. Just as fires light up the whole city, revolutions light up the whole human race. And what revolution shall we bring about? I’ve just said it, the revolution of the True. From the political point of view, there is one single principle: the sovereignty of man over himself. Light! Light! Everything comes from light, and everything returns to it. Men will be happy. Friends, this hour we are living in and in which I am speaking to you is a somber one, but such is the terrible price of the future. Oh! The human race will be delivered, uplifted, and consoled! We are affirming it in this town. Where would the shout of love begin, if not from the summit of sacrifice? Here day embraces night, and says: I will die with you and you will be born again with me. From the heavy embrace of all desolations springs faith. Sufferings bring their agony here, and ideas their immortality. This agony and immortality will mingle and make up our death. Brother.s, whoever dies here dies in the radiance of the future, and we are entering a grave illuminated by the dawn.” Arise, arise, Citizens of Tyrian Falls! Fell deeds awake: fire and slaughter! spear shall be shaken, shield be splintered, a sword- day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Run now, run now! Run to the gates! Sons of Tyrian Falls! My brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me! A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship. But it is not this day. An hour of Spiked and shattered shields when the age of Men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand! I see a whole army of my townsmen here in defiance of these conquerors. You have come to fight as free men, and free men you are. What would you do without freedom? Will you fight? Aye, fight and you may die. Run and you'll live -- at least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take our freedom! We must defy the Spiked... No.t with violence that will inflame their will, but with a firmness that will open their eyes. When I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it: always. Fight now and live! Never give up! Honor shall be yours! __________________________________________________________________________ Day 6 begins! You have 48 hours. Herwynbe was a Village Coinshot! Updated Player List 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Pifferdoo he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Frickcannon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seonid he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Storm it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarcomere Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well, I don't think there's much else for it but to try and do what I suggested in the last Night Cycle. If anyone has any other ideas or objections, post it or PM me. Or both. Riew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Senn, you've been too convenient his entire game and I can't decide why it is you don't feel right. You've lasted a long time with hardly any suspicion at all and I don't see why. Bandwagoning on Weiry, while it might kill us a Spiked finally, won't get us the info we need for the rest of our lynches. We need these lynches to be Spiked. We don't have much wiggle room left with our Coinshot gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Joe in the Bush Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) . . . I didn't expect that. Mailliw, Not going to explain why just yet, just to be careful. Edited January 18, 2015 by The Only Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyrmhero he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) Let's break down what has happened: Weiry was protected. This could either mean that he is a Lurcher, or that he is Spiked and the Spiked have a Lurcher (which may or may not be Weiry). If the former, then it is likely that he is a Villager. If the latter, then it implies that the Spiked knew who our target was, and were able to protect them because of it. Hreo is dead, and he was our Coinshot. Only two people knew of this - Claincy and Mailliw. Coupled with the fact that the target was protected, I find this very suspicious. Mailliw told me last night that there were three possible targets - Peng, Newan and someone else. I do not know if Claincy knew who the last target was, but even so... Wilson thought we might have a leak early on in the game, and her explanation as to why Claincy was innocent never struck home with me. I requested that the Coinshot get in touch with me (through both Claincy and Mailliw), in case one of the two in contact died and the other was an Eliminator. It could be that my request spurred them to get rid of the Coinshot before I could talk to them or find the fact that he hadn't gotten in contact with me suspicious. Edited January 18, 2015 by Wyrmhero 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claincy he/him Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) This is bad, though I wish it were more of a surprise. I've got a bit to say here, but I want to start by talking about what just happened, and why it happened. You made a bit of a rookie-mistake Sarco, it's understandable but it did hurt us, let me explain: You soothed Weiry and his vote was unaffected so he was smoked, then you told Hero in a private message, so far, so good. It doesn't guarantee that Weiry is spiked but it is a good cause for suspicion (I'll get back to this soon). Hero told me about this, and that he was targeting Weiry tonight, I only say this for full disclosure. At this point in time things were going pretty well, but then you made your last post yesterday and essentially defeated your own efforts. By publicly and clearly declaring both your suspicions and your reasoning for targeting Weiry and making a big deal about lynching him you painted a giant target on him. At that point it was almost guaranteed that if the spiked did have a lurcher (a reasonable guess before that is all but confirmed now) that they would be lurching Weiry. If Weiry is a spiked, then the spiked obviously would have lurched him to protect him. But if he isn't a spiked they almost certainly would have lurched him anyway, confident that in doing so they would block the coinshot's action and lead to Weiry being lynched the next day anyway. Basically giving them an extra cycle to kill someone before suspicion came back to them. If you hadn't posted that last message and Weiry had been lurched we could have been near certain that there was a traitor amongst the most trusted players and we could have been reasonably sure that Weiry was spiked. As it is we can't be nearly as certain either way about either, nor have do we have any good indication from the action of who the traitor might be if there is one. All we really gained from the whole mess was the knowledge that the spiked almost certainly have a lurcher (it technically could have been a mistborn) and we lost our coinshot. A wiser path would have been to wait till the start of this day cycle to make that post, and if you really thought you were about to die you could have sent a message to whichever two people you trusted most, that way even if one was spiked the message would still get out if you happened to die. I understand making the mistake, but I think it's worth explaining why it was a mistake and what the consequences were. Making mistakes is a very effective way of learning after all. So now to talk about Weiry and whether it is worth lynching him, to summarize the main reasons for suspicion: -He was lurched last night. -He was definitely smoked last cycle (if your word can be believed which I am reasonably certain about.) -He and dowanx posted roughly the same thing in rapid succession and the question/answer about that closeness later felt staged to you. I've already noted that I think the spiked would almost certainly have lurched Weiry regardless of his alignment so this doesn't really help us. I am making the assumption here and in the rest of my post that the spiked are highly competent. Given that it is day 6 and not one spiked has been killed or positively identified I think this assumption is a safe one. Weiry being smoked. This is by far the strongest evidence we have against Weiry and it certainly indicates that Weiry might be spiked. There is however another (concerning) possibility. At this point in the game I think almost everyone feels pretty safe in the assumption that Araris was our only seeker, unless the spiked have one which is entirely possible. Regardless, drawing this conclusion and with what may be our only mistborn also pushing up daisies the spiked could be quite justified in thinking that they were no longer at a significant risk of being seeked. If that is the case they could very well be using their smokers offensively, hoping to cause the exact situation we have with Weiry with an innocent villager. Now they might not be doing that, but given how well they've done so far it wouldn't surprise me, if that is the case anyone we discover as smoked has a 50% chance of being the spiked smoker, and a 50% chance of being the innocent being smoked by said spiked smoker. These are not exactly ideal odds. All the same with everything said this is a good enough cause for serious suspicion, but personally I don't find it enough to raise Weiry to the top of my suspects or priority list. This brings us to the close timing and similar nature of Weiry and dowanx's posts. I do not consider this evidence of them both being spiked, in fact, I find it more likely that at most one of the pair is spiked as a result of it. Let me explain my thought process: The obvious and immediate reaction to seeing two people post so close together with the same intent is that they were collaborating somewhere, presumably on the spiked doc, came to a conclusion and acted on it. One of the most rookie mistake the spiked could make. While it is true that both of them are relatively inexperienced I find it a bit difficult to believe that after the spiked's success so far they would make such a fundamental mistake. But let's keep stepping through the logic. The spiked would of course be aware of how obvious this would be, and would know that any experienced player would have difficulty crediting it as a spiked action, so by doing so they could actually reduce suspicion on themselves! I could continue this circular "I know you know" logic forever but it would be kind of pointless, and in this case it actually doesn't make sense. The situation occurred during day 5, at a point in time when neither of them were under any kind of significant public suspicion. There is no way the gambit I described above would result in reducing suspicion. Furthermore one of the chief considerations for spiked when posting is that they absolutely do not want to be associated with eachother with any level of suspicion unless one of the pair is already under suspicion anyway and they are trying a dangerous gambit. This is so that if one spiked is killed, we wouldn't have immediate solid leads on who the other spiked were. In this case to my memory there had been nothing of any significance to link Weiry and dowanx before this point, so in the best possible case the gambit would have gained them, well, basically nothing. So either they made a really stupid mistake, or it was a coincidence. So yeah, if anything I think this is mild evidence that at least one of Weiry and dowanx is not spiked. So to conclude all that, the thing making Weiry suspicious is being smoked during day 5, though that is absolutely a reason to be suspicious of him, it doesn't match up with my personal suspicion of Newan and Peng, though I can't blame anyone for disagreeing. I suppose this is the part where I would traditionally say that my suspicion of Sarco has risen, and perhaps it has marginally, but certainly not significantly. Your actions and logic make sufficient sense as a newer player and while as I've noted above I disagree with your reasoning, it doesn't appear spiked to me. So, to move on to another topic I'd like to look at what has changed in regards to my suspicions of Newan and Peng. Newan 1) said that he had checked every cycle, but didn't have time to read anything in detail so decided he had nothing to add to the discussion and had little idea who to trust/be suspicious of 2) said that when he talked about taking the game seriously, he meant that he just didn't want to die 3) Newan told the coinshot to kill him to stop the village from wasting more time on him 4) he claims to have left, and be leaving his coppercloud down. 1) This is unhelpful behaviour, but there isn't really much to say about it. A villager who cannot or will not vote/discuss is only useful as a potential fodder for the spiked. But this has been discussed plenty earlier. 2) K. That makes a little more sense and sounds a little less spiked, though it's not a great attitude for a team game. I suggest being a little clearer in future 3) I'm trying to remember how much I've said in PMs and how much I've said in the thread regarding people asking to die. My personal opinion is that it does little to indicate whether the person is spiked or not. To summarize: -At first glance it sounds like something only a village would do, publicly sacrificing themselves for the team. (Of course, spiked do do that too, but generally as part of a larger gambit.) -But as that is the obvious assumption it is a workable double bluff for the spiked (Que I know you know ad infinitum) -If you think you are going to die otherwise, suggesting you be killed is worth a shot, cos what the heck, you've got nothing to lose (On this note I would like to note that the only reason Newan wasn't lynched day 5 was that lord Pifferdoo (probably unintentionally) forgot to colour his old vote green. -For it to look less like a last scramble to save your life you need to do it before it becomes obvious that you are going to die anyway. This is true for a villager or a spiked. I don't think this is really a point for or against Newan being spikey, particularly as his timing could be interpreted a couple of different ways. 4) Yeah a spiked would be less likely to be not using their coppercloud, but he could also easily have been bluffing and none of the village emotionmanceres decided to test him so we don't have any solid evidence from this. Anyway, the overall effect of this is that I am a little less suspicious of Newan, not a whole lot though. Peng 1) changed his vote to Newan as an act of self preservation 2) said he was testing me about the number of PMs he had been in 3) reminded Pifferdoo that he needed to put his past vote in green 1) Perfectly natural for anyone to do, nothing suspicious or suggesting innocence here. 2) This seems vaguely more of a village thing to do, but as a spiked if you can catch someone in a contradiction it's an excellent opportunity to get them lynched. *shrug* 3) Yeah, this doesn't really mean anything either way. So overall my thoughts on Peng have changed........not much Maybe a tad less suspicious now though. Ok, here's the part I really haven't been looking forward to talking about. We have to consider the possibility that one of the players in the trust groups is a traitor. I'm not at all sure whether there is or isn't at this point, though we have been aware and watching for the possibility literally since Wilson first contacted me. (At that time it was the two of us watching eachother of course.) I'm going to try to get the relevant facts/points down here and we'll see where things go from there. -The possibility of me or Wilson being spiked based on the original PM setup and our reasons for trusting eachother have been well documented at this point so I'm not going to try to repeat all the inns and outs of that debate. I linked all the relevant posts here if you want to review them. -Given the number of major hits the spiked are either far more lucky than they have any right to be, or they have a trusted traitor, or they have a seeker. -No-one in the trusted group (to my knowledge) knew that Araris was a seeker at the time of his death. -Wilson's death: +To my knowledge only Maill, Sarcomere and myself knew that Wilson was protecting Hero on the night she died. +That said it is entirely possible, if not likely, that the spiked simply guessed that the coinshot would be the one with lurcher protection that night as it was common knowledge that Wilson knew who the coinshot was. +There is a reasonable chance that the spiked also either knew or had guessed that Wilson was a lurcher. I genuinely don't know/remember exactly who knew about Wilson's role. I did, Maill did, Winter did, Hero may have, I think Wyrm might have? I've honestly forgotten if there were others though I have a feeling there were. Can you help me out here Maill? (The PM convo is thousands of words long and kind of a pain to search through, and I've already been working on this post for hours.) -Hero's death +Maill and I both definitely knew Hero was the coinshot, I know that Sarcomere knew that Wilson lurched Hero the night she died, though I don't know for 100% certain if Sarcomere knew that Hero was the coinshot, I'd be surprised if he hadn't worked it out if he didn't know, Wyrm knew enough to work out who the coinshot was and I'm guessing he did so, but I don't know that for certain either. +To be honest, I don't think it would have taken too much guesswork to peg Hero as the coinshot, though that could be personal bias, and again a seeker on the spiked team would make a big difference here. -Everyone knew Weiry was under extreme suspicion and likely to be coinshot (provided they viewed the thread after Sarc's post) though I don't know for certain if Hero told anyone else that he was targeting Weiry. (He did tell me if that wasn't clear from my wording.) I'm not worried about revealing all this because now that Sarcomere has revealed himself I am near certain that the spiked already know who we all are. And knowledge of who knew what about past events is unlikely to be all that much use to them. So anyway, there we are. From what has happened I don't think it is at all certain that there is a spiked (or more than one) in what remains of the "trust group" as such and I from my observations I don't individually think that any of them are spiked, but, *shrug* I cannot discount the possibility entirely. One final quick note: I'm not terribly impressed with Maill or Joe's reasoning in the posts above, can we really afford to be that vague and in-specific or deliberately avoid stating why we suspect them at this point? So now I should vote...writing that big block of text above? That was easier in some ways. Thinking about it all my chief suspicions are Newan, Weiry and Peng. I'm going to put my vote on Peng again, sorry mate. (Check through day 5 posts for the reasons behind my suspicions.) Please tell me if any of the above is unclear/needs to be explained better or if I made any mistakes or missed anything. Edited January 19, 2015 by lord Claincy Ffnord 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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