Mid-Range Game 8: Highborn Intrigue

[Herowannabe he/him]

as to not draw our (hero's) inactive slaying wrath.

[Adamir he/him]

There is a chance that Kipper is attempting a WGG, but said gambit has, from what I've heard, happened often enough to be recognized; he's experienced enough to know that we would suspect a WGG. Then again, it may be a double bluff in the hope that we would assume he is too experienced to attempt a WGG...

 

Which is why we need to make good use of our Seeker roles. Allow me to give my suggestion.

 

Step 1 - Ardent scans Kipper.

 

Step 2 - Ardent reveals scan results.

 

Step 3 - Artifabrian purges Ardent for every cycle from then on, without revealing him/herself to avoid being Corrupted.

 

Now, if our only suspect is RavenRadient, I would like to advocate that the Assassin should kill IrulelikeStink, on the basis that, should he prove innocent, we will have plausible cause for Araris Valerian being an Eliminator. Or, should no one want to risk both Stink and Araris being innocent, wait for an Ardent to be able to scan Araris later on. This is the equivalent of a Day 1 lynch to promote discussion.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Adamir

[STINK he/him]

Wait, you want me killed now?

[Amanuensis he/him]

We would also require a Guardsman to protect the aforementioned Ardent from being killed during the Night by the Eliminators.

 

What are the chances of Kipper being attacked twice in a row? I would suggest putting a Guardsman on him, but really it's pointless because just suggesting it means the Eliminators would expect it and target someone else.

 

 

*EDITED for color*

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[Guest]

See, as Adamir said, I know that everyone would suspect a WGG. Honestly, the focus on WGGs will leave anyone suspicious if they survive a hit at all.

So we really don't know.

Thanks for revealing my PMs, Wilson. Thanks a lot. I'm sure that those certainly contributed to my downfall.

[Guest]

Alvom, the chances of me being attacked are reasonably high, actually. The immediate psychological reaction would be to assume that I have a very useful role, when in reality, the only advantage I have is my PMs.

I would seriously consider hitting me again.

On the other hand, from an acceptance point of view, I'm vetter left alive. Since I now do have suspicion placed on me for a WGG, the longer the Eliminators leave me alive, the more suspicion gets placed on me. The end result? Doing their work for them and wasting a lynch. And it's very likely that that could happen.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ultimately the most efficient way for us to get ahead without killing blind would be to have an ardent reveal themselves and what they've discovered the last two nights, and keep them highly protected with anonymous Artifabrians and Guardsman. Issue is, it wouldn't be hard for an Eliminator to just say he's an Ardent and falsify his findings / make us waste our defensive roles. Assuming we keep the Ardent constantly uncorrupted, the moment he declares an innocent evil and we kill them, they'd be found out; unless, of course, they happen to corrupt our anonymous Artifabrian. Chances of them accidentally getting said Artifabrian would be an about 1/20 as of today, assuming they didn't get hit last night.

 

 

EDIT: @Renegade; now that my reputation level is that of an Ardent, does that mean I can use their ability as well?

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[RavenRadient7 she/her]

... I'm sort of flattered that enough people consider me a threat to place an additional vote on me. Though, considering that Ripples was an eliminator Brightlady, and I voted on her last round, I wouldn't be surprised if she was a vote on me here.

 

Which reminds me. Can someone get the additional vote due to just one vote, or do at least two people have to vote for the same person in order for someone to gain an additional vote on them?

 

Good work, assassin. Ripple's death means that we've got the beginnings to work off of. Someone's mentioned looking at who she voted for first, and who voted against her, but we should also consider who voted with her to ensure phattemer's lynch. I doubt all of them were eliminators, but probably at least one of them were. Unless, of course, the other eliminators saw everyone jumping on the lynch train, and didn't see any reason to join in. Heronwannabe started it, followed by Ripples, followed by Alvom and STINK back to back, ended by Lopen. It seems odd to me that Ripples would jump to vote onto phattemer, when the votes were tied against her, unless she knew at least one of her eliminator friends would back her up. I'm leaning towards not Heron, because he seems focused on inactives and this seems more like Ripples getting her allies to help save her by jumping on a new name who wasn't protecting themselves. In that case, I'm looking at Alvom, Lopen, and STINK, though I'm not ready to put a vote on any of them.

[Adamir he/him]

Feeling like a complete idiot - I forgot that Ripple was a Brightlady, meaning that the anonymous vote on RavenRadiant is an Eliminator ploy. I'm not discounting the WGG, but I'm shifting RavenRadiant alongside Kipper as the two people I am currently convinced are not Eliminators.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I still suspect STINK more than Lopen, though I fear he might be an Eliminator as well. The main thing that bothers me about STINK (on top of everything else I mentioned the other day) is how in the beginning of the game he was anti Day 1 lynching and yet he made a vote at the very end knowing fully well that Phattemer would likely die, and never provided an explanation as to why. Earlier that day he voted only to keep himself from being killed, then retracted it when he was no longer in danger. That I can understand. But suddenly targeting Phat... why the sudden change up, STINK?

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[STINK he/him]

I've explained that multiple times now, even at the beginning of the night 2 thread, so can people actually read what I write? 

 

I voted because at that time, a worldsinger could of killed anyone with 1 vote or more, so I felt that I had to make it so that the worldsinger couldn't influence the lynch without help, and I still am against D1 lynches, but with all the votes being cast around already making it clear that everyone else (apparently) wanted to do a D1 lynch, so I went for an inactive.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@irulelikeSTINK: I just went back to read all of your past posts in an attempt to find the turning point for you. To me it seems to correlate with the moment people shifted focus from you onto Ripple, who turned out to be an eliminator. Also, the excuse you provided (now and then) is not valid to me. Just because everyone else is doing something doesn't mean you should go against what you believe to be right. One aspect of being honorable to me is making a decision and sticking to it, regardless of other people's opinions of you for it. That is the reason why I both waited until the end to vote and cast a vote in the first place; because I didn't want to make a habit of going back on my word. In my opinion that is the same thing as lying. I also want to note that Ripple swore to Preservation she wasn't a conspirator, and in a similar fashion STINK said "Sorry to disappoint, but I am a noble." Looking back, both of these are red flags. It's natural that a conspirator would want to declare their innocence, especially one who might be new. If I personally didn't believe that a man (or woman) should be defined not by what they claim to be but by their actions, I might do the same in their shoes.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[RavenRadient7 she/her]

Winter, I never "switched" to you from Ripples. You were the first vote I placed, as a poke vote, and then I switched to Ripples, whom I left it on the entire rest of the day. Though, I am wondering why you seem so certain that none of the others in the lynch were eliminators, but don't give a reason.

 

Though, I had completely forgotten that conspirers can't use the doc during the day, so unless Ripples had a PM open with a fellow eliminator, which seems like a dangerous thing to do in a game with Couriers, she couldn't have "gotten" her allies to jump onto phattemer's lynch. That doesn't mean none of them decided to join in to aid in protecting her.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm willing to bet that they acted independently, however, I would be interested to hear from a Courier who intercepted messages between Ripple and any of the others who "hopped on the lynch train."

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[STINK he/him]

Alvom, earlier in D1 you said that if I continued to argue against a D1 lynch then you would think that I was an eliminator even more, and now that a D1 lynch has happened you proceed to call me suspicious. So the turning point for me was when I saw a situation where a worldsinger could of killed an active person and instead decided to kill an inactive person as I saw that someone was going to be lynched at the end of the day, with someone already having 3 votes.

[Guest]

Hold on, Eliminators can't use the doc during the day? That's highly unusual. *checks rules* And it's true. Wow. I feel like an idiot. That changes things.

Alvom, a word of caution on votes. Mostly everybody changes their votes once or even twice during the Day. It does not and should not imply dishonesty or lying for people to change their votes. The game is about changing people's opinions through arguments.

Alright, I think that I will place a vote today, but not until I figure out some more items...

Edit: [rant]AND CAN EVERYBODY STORMIN' STOP CLAIMING TO BE VILLAGE?!?!?! IT JUST CREATES ANOTHER UNNECESSARY THING FOR ME TO ANALYZE, FOR NO REASON, AND IT'S FREAKING ANNOYING!! EVERYONE IS VILLAGE! EVERYONE! RUST AND RUIN, IF YOU ARE A VILLAGER, FOR HONOR'S SAKE DON'T BLATANTLY CLAIM TO BE VILLAGE!! IT JUST HURTS YOU!!! EVERYONE KNOWS THAT YOU CLAIM VILLAGE!![/rant]

Edited August 23, 2015 by Guest

[Amanuensis he/him]

The quote he is referring to is this:

 

"Right now, I'm most suspicious of STINK (and TheMightyLopen by association as he could attempting to run interference so his associate doesn't get overrun). I'm about 45% certain he's an Eliminator at this point, and that will likely increase if he continues to resist a Day 1 Lynch, or triggers any other red flags in my mind."

 

I would like to note I used the word likely as there were still circumstances in which you switching would end up being a red flag, which did indeed occur. The fact that the person you saved (regardless of the active / inactive argument) was an eliminator and the person that was killed as a result was innocent makes me suspicious. Especially when you consider Ripple was one of the people who defended you earlier that day. It was also meant to be a nudge to see if you would stick to your beliefs or not.

 

 

EDIT: @Kipper: My point wasn't that he changed votes, but his reasoning for the two votes. The first was in his defense, the second because "everyone else was doing it" and "better than killing an active." 

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[RavenRadient7 she/her]

Winter, that's a good point that Ripples was trying to get someone else lynched, away from her, but she jumped ship onto phattemer as the second vote, meaning that she broke the tie between her and another, more or less ensuring her lynch if her new target wasn't lynched. That seems really dangerous for her, and unless it's a case of her being a new player and not noticing, I'm more inclined to believe that she had at least one person willing to back her up, and throw their own weight onto the new lynch. The short amount of time would make it hard to change lynches, making it even harder for her to not get targeted, but would also make it hard for phattemer to defend himself.

[STINK he/him]

Stick to my beliefs? This is a game about deception and lies.

[Amanuensis he/him]

That's my point. For a majority of the day, you're posts consisted of you preaching against a Day 1 Lynch and you defending yourself from any accusations (or making mundane statements such as 'the paranoia being higher than the moon'). And then suddenly when focus was shifted from you to Ripple you stepped up to the voting booth and laid one down on both the person she decided on in the end and was the only one who could have been sacrificed in her stead. Only an Eliminator would benefit from that.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[STINK he/him]

Focus was shifted from me to whoever long before I voted, and while I decided to vote an inactive rather than an active, this doesn't make me evil. Also, many names were thrown around for lynches but at the end of the day many people were talking about the worldsingers potential, not just me. 

 

You also provided helpful information about the inactives and who could be a 'culprit', Alvom. 

"Seonid hasn't been active for 20 hours.

Venture Mistborn for 10.

Feligon for 5.

Phattemer for 2.

Paranoid King, 1 (he posted approximately 7 hours ago)

 

So any of those last three could certainly be one of our culprits."

 

As well as Alvom saying "I will likely vote against Phattemer if nothing new develops in the next hour." and so Alvom did vote for Phat as well. 

 

 Also, Wilson also made a good point about what so many of you find so suspicous.

 

" I actually believe that a Day 1 lynch benefits the Eliminators more than it does the villagers. Especially with how much we metagame now. It's gotten to the point that so many people are in favor of a Day 1 lynch that the eliminators don't have to really got involved with it. It will just happen without them needing to place any vote on the person lynched. So when a villager ends up lynched, we get focused on who voted for the person, but no eliminators even needed to."

 

At the end of D1, the vote tally was:

 

Phattemer(5): Hero, RippleGylf, Alvom, Stink, Lopen
Ripplegylf(3): Clanky, Raven, sart
Honey Badger(2): Mailliw, Araris 
Wilson(1): Nobles
Stink(1): Orlok
Shallan(1): Haelbarde
Raven(1): Winter Cloud

 

So if I had decided not to vote, then Ripple could of died and it seems that even Alvom agreed with me about lynching Phat instead of Ripple, so why is Alvom now being so suspicious of me?

[Adamir he/him]

Slight suspicions about Winter Cloud for voting for RavenRadiant when we know the Eliminators are out to lynch him; I'll put my vote there for now, since I have no better suspects. Yes, it could still be a Wounded Gazelle Gambit, but we can wait for an ardent to test Raven after Kipper. If someone gives me a better target, I'll happily change my vote. I am also putting Wilson a slight step above Kipper and Raven in terms of suspicion, simply with the chance that the Eliminators orchestrated the nobility vote on her; I am not saying this clears Wilson, as for all we know there was only one Eliminator Brightlord/Brightlady and it could have been Nobles with that role who set that vote.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Adamir

[Amanuensis he/him]

@STINK: Yes, focus was shifted from you before that, but was it shifted to an Eliminator? Let alone one that had much more support against them? It was only after it almost seemed certain that she might die that you started going along with the idea of killing inactives.

 

And you're right, I did provide "helpful information" against the Inactives. I took data that anyone could have found and organized it for everyone to see. I made a healthy contribution to the conversation in accordance with it's current direction so that others could analyze it and make their own decisions. You, however, didn't really add anything except for some offhand comments. Given that I'm completely new to this (both the game and the community) I had no way of knowing that phattemer was one of the more experienced players and that it was atypical of him to be quiet, especially when he was frequently active on the forums and yet not in the thread, until it was brought up by someone else.

 

Additionally, I had no way of knowing if anyone would vote against him after me. Both your vote and Lopen's were sudden and the only explanation provided was to prevent Worldsingers from manipulating the votes. I tied the vote because that's what I wanted. If the eliminators had a Worldsinger, then they would have altered the votes somehow to break it; given who they chose to kill, it would have increased suspicion on the alternative. But what if they didn't have one, and feared that a villager Worldsinger would alter the vote to kill ripple. Then they would need to gap the votes enough that the lynch couldn't be used against them.

 

That is exactly what I think happened.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Alvom

[little wilson she/her]

Some comments about the Ripple voting stuff being discussed:

 

1. Ripple was the second vote on Phatt, placed right after Hero's. Due to the quickness in which she sided with him and the fact that by switching her vote from the person who was tied with her to someone else, I believe that she was distancing herself from someone who was voting for Badger. At that point in time, Badger had three votes on him (counting Ripple's), and I think one of those other votes was an eliminator.

 

2. Alvom mentioning the idea of eliminators backing Ripple up on the vote on Phatt because they didn't have a Worldsinger reminds me of the fact that Ripple mentioned again and again the necessity of more votes to block a Conspirator Worldsinger. This struck me as odd at the time. Vote manipulation is always a concern, but she kept on hitting on that. Perhaps that was because they really don't have a Worldsinger. Though if that's the case, it makes me wonder what they do have, since vote manipulation is always a good thing for eliminators to have. I wonder if they might not actually have a Guard to give them some sort of protection against the assassin, despite the fact that corruption would give them a double kill. If they have an artifabrian, they could easily use the artifabrian (after corrupting them) to corrupt the guard every couple of cycles so they get an additional kill but they also get the protection.

 

Anyway. If they don't have a Worldsinger, Stink and Lopen rise in suspicion considerably, though I still think Lopen is the more concerning of the two.

 

I'm most interested with the Badger vote, though, that Ripple switched from. I find it interesting that Maill was in that number, and that Maill was also the person who first suggested the possibility of a WGG with Kipper, publicly. I'd considered the possibility privately, but even in those PMs, I discounted the likelihood of it. If Kipper is a Noble (as I think is highly likely), it would do the eliminators well to suggest the idea publicly so as to let him gather suspicion. My vote is on Mallan. I will not be moving it.

[Haelbarde he/him]

Will be sleeping for the next while, but should be back on for the 3-4 hours prior to turn over.

Just thought I'd chime in and comment on a few things before I drop off. Re: Raven being night voted. I've been ball parking ~8 Brightlord/ladies. So until we've killed more like 4 of them, I'm assuming that there'll be enough of them that 2 votes would be necessary for it to go through (noting that that is just because I suspect players will vote fairly randomly, rather than it being a requirement of the ability). As far as the reason for the votes on Raven goes, a vote from Ripple would make sense. It could be the Conspirators trying for a WGG, but as Raven hadn't triggered any alarm bells for me, I'm happy to assume that that isn't the case.

The one thing that messes with the analysis of the lynch is the new players. Not being used to us and the metagaming we have going on, if a couple of them were eliminators, teamed up with a (few) semi active more experienced player (or if they just decided to do their own thing, particularly with no doc during the day) I could see them piling on the lynch. I must say that at least for the moment, I'd be falling on the side of trusting Raven, and being suspicious of Stink. However, I'm tired, and want to spend some more time thinking about all this. So I'll come back to cast a vote at some point, hopefully not too close to turnover...