Long Game 14: To Shatter a Shard

[A Joe in the Bush]

I request an extension.

Noted and granted. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Cultivation, might I have my PMs back? I would appreciate your kindness immensely.

[Kipper]

Mailliw,

Why the jellybeans do you need a cycle extension? It's almost like you had to plan with somebody, and it obviously wasn't the thread.

[little wilson she/her]

Obviously it's the last OC. He's trying to plan with them. I really hope Cultivation didn't grant those PMs....

[Kipper]

Don't worry, I didn't. Yeah, me too. I think Cultivation's a pretty smart guy, though.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Time.

[A Joe in the Bush]

The Eleventh Day: Critical Error

 

Wilkin unwound the other end of the red string, pinning it in place on the intended target. He stepped back and looked over his Handiwork. A web of mutlicoloured strings led from picture to picture, each denoting an action, an estimated reaction, and a probable Effect. It looked a lot like how he imagined the Drunk Monkey’s plans to look.

 

There was one string that worried him though. A black one that lead from Odium to nowhere. Where would he strike tonight? Where would his Champion strike? Did he even have a champion? Hopefully his informant would figure it out soon.

 

A knock at the door. Think of the Devil, and they appear. “Wilkin? You in there? We got some intel. I think I know where the Champion will strike.”

 

He turned, still holding the black string, and unlocked the door. His informant pushed it open and strode in, clutching a bundle of papers. They dropped the stack on the desk and looked at the web of strings. Their eyes followed the black string leading from Odium to Wilkin’s hand. “Huh, I guess you already know.”

 

“Wait, again? Me?”

 

The informant nodded. “This info is solid. They’ll be going after you tonight. You’ve annoyed them pretty good.”

 

Wilkin frowned, and pinned the string to his own picture. He might need to rearrange some of the blue strings then. Did he have time to get a lashing in place? “Where did you get the info from?”

 

There was a rasp of metal as a sword was drawn from a scabbard. Wilkin turned in time to see his Informant lunge forward, impaling him through the chest. He stumbled backwards, falling off the sword and slamming into the wall. His vision began to fade as the pain spread throughout his whole body.

 

“There are times when you’re too paranoid Wilkin, and times when you aren’t paranoid enough.”

 

Little Wilson was (finally) killed! She was a Normal Worldhopper!

Once again all PM’s made before this Turn are closed.

[Seonid he/him]

Welp...that was less than I was hoping for.

 

Wilson asked me not to protect her, but to protect a separate player instead. Looks like I should have stuck with my gut feeling there. At this point, she wanted to die, though (she stays in the running for the dodo award that way). She asked me to roleblock Clanky again this cycle, but obviously the kills went through anyways. For full disclosure, I'm Neutral again, because Mail's (still) a troll. I'm nearly certain that Mail's working with the OC's, but he hasn't joined them officially (he couldn't keep making me neutral if he had). I'd recommend killing him, but we can't afford to waste a lynch on him. If we kill another OC without winning, then we can target him with extreme prejudice.

 

Clanky, I'm sorry. That's another set of things I should have listened to my gut about. I'd been arguing for your possible innocence to Wilson for a couple cycles, but I deferred to her judgement. If I hadn't, maybe you would have blocked phatt's kills earlier. Either way, I trust you now. There is only one Odium's Champion left, and this was the last cycle they could use the investment kill. So they are limited to one Shard-kill now.

 

To the new Cultivation, I'd like to be in a PM with Kipper and Clanky, if that's not too presumptuous of me to ask.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Hey, Seonid? I didnt invest in you last night, so if you're still neutral, that means you didn't pick a side, not me.

Edit: Kipper, yes I was trying to plan with the OCs, but it didn't work out.

Edit 2: Kipper

Edited October 4, 2015 by Mailliw73

[Kipper]

Yeah, and for future reference, Maillow cannot Invest once he's picked a side, sooo...

Seonid. Sorry. I do not trust you now.

Edit: And good job on finally dying, Wilson! Keep it up and the Dodo Award will be yours!

Edited October 4, 2015 by Kipper

[STINK he/him]

Im still confused.

[Seonid he/him]

That explains Joe's cryptic comment. I targeted Wilson last night (I forgot to invest in her the day before), and my Joe said that I was still Neutral, and it wasn't because Wilson died. Clanky, did you roleblock me?

 

Kipper, I'm targeting you tonight with my investment. If I'm not going to get PMs, I'll have to do my strategizing and analysis here in thread. I don't have a lot of time today, so I'll post more towards the end of the cycle.

[Kipper]

I'm not Cultivation anymore and I don't know who is. I would appreciate a PM with him/her.

[Clanky he/him]

That explains Joe's cryptic comment. I targeted Wilson last night (I forgot to invest in her the day before), and my Joe said that I was still Neutral, and it wasn't because Wilson died. Clanky, did you roleblock me?

 

Kipper, I'm targeting you tonight with my investment. If I'm not going to get PMs, I'll have to do my strategizing and analysis here in thread. I don't have a lot of time today, so I'll post more towards the end of the cycle.

 

Nope I did not role-block you Seonid, and for the record I do not trust you still. I am not in the right frame of mind to do my analysis at who the last OC is at the moment but I will try and get on for that in a bit.

[RavenRadient7 she/her]

I'd like a PM with the new Cultivation, please.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Can we all just get PMs with you, Cultivation?

[Kipper]

Edit: Seonid

I'm actually going to vote for Karlin instead, because I know there was an Elimimator pinchhitting for inactives. One of those inactives could be Karlin, so...

Edited October 4, 2015 by Kipper

[A Joe in the Bush]

After Alvron's death, I did let him send in actions for Inactive Eliminators. However, that is no longer the case. Alvron cannot send in orders anymore, and has not been able to do so for three turns.

[Kipper]

Karlin.

I'm almost positive it's Seonid then. Everyone else has been cleared in some way. And Seonid's story about Maill being evil, yet being Invested today doesn't add up.

[Seonid he/him]

My story about Mail being evil? Mail's not evil. He's still Neutral (almost certainly). But he is working with the OCs. He hasn't officially switched sides, but he is or was working with them. He claims that it didn't work out. I don't believe it.

 

Also, either Mail or Clanky is lying (or there is a vanishingly small probability that I've missed a way that my investment could be blocked...such as Clanky giving up Ruin.)

 

Kipper, I don't know what to say other than that you've missed something. Because I am not, nor ever have been working with the OC's. I have been nothing but upfront with you and Wilson this whole game. Except for the time that Wilson suspected you right at the beginning of the game, and we made plans to switch protections around from what we had told you, just in case. That only lasted maybe one cycle or so.

 

I get that you don't believe me. I can't change that. If you have to kill me to see, then go ahead and do it. And when I'm either good or neutral (depending on how trollish Mail is feeling - although I would hope that he wouldn't turn me neutral the round I died just to spite me and make me lose...), I hope you can still pull out a village win.

 

More analysis to follow.

[Seonid he/him]

Living Players:

 

Me (Hoid): currently Neutral, investing in Kipper this cycle to turn good. I have one extra life due to investment from Preservation earlier, and have been invested by Cultivation, Dominion, Honor, Preservation, Ruin, and Survival (repeatedly). I attempted investment in Wilson last night to re-join Team Good again, and was told at the start of this cycle that I was still neutral and that no, it wasn't because Wilson was dead. So either Mail must have invested me, contrary to his statement above, or Clanky must have roleblocked me, contrary to his statement above. I suspect that Mail is lying, because he tends to do that. Especially in this game.

 

Kipper: One-time holder of Preservation, but gave the shard up. Has proved himself beyond doubt to be on Team Good.

 

Mailliw: Survival. A troll. Almost certainly not officially joined Team Odium. Confirmed to have been plotting with them and to have been attempting to have worked on their side without officially joining. Asserts that it fell through and that he isn't working with them anymore. I don't believe him, but I don't think we need to kill him. Certainly, Odium is a higher priority.

 

Surgebound Rainspren: Last I checked, hadn't been on the site since Sept. 10th. Alvron was sending in orders for inactives for a while, but Joe said that stopped 3 cycles ago, so he's off of my list.

 

Clanky: Holder of the broken Shard of Ruin. I roleblocked him last night, so he couldn't have made the kills unless he had passed the Shard of Ruin to another holder, who roleblocked me. Possible, but unlikely. I do not believe he is the Champion of Odium.

 

Stink: Not much to say here. Implied he held Cultivation last cycle, but has either passed it on or arbitrarily closed all PMs. I suspect passed on.

 

Raven: Also not much to say. She holds the broken shard of Dominion.

 

Dowanx: Also not much to say.

 

Shards not accounted for: Honor (broken), Cultivation (whole), Endowment (whole), Preservation (whole), Odium (whole).

 

Possible holders: Kipper, Stink, Clanky, Raven, Dowanx, Surgebound Rainspren.

 

I'm going to strike Surgebound from that list, just because of inactivity. If new information forces a revision of that, I'll gladly do so.

 

This leaves 5 potential holders for 5 shards. But, since Honor is broken, it could be stacked with Dominion or Ruin or both or any or both of them in addition to a whole shard. So 4 of those 5 hold shards. Kipper's good, so can't be Odium. That leaves us 4 potential holders of Odium. I roleblocked Clanky. So he almost certainly could not have made those kills. That leaves Dowanx, Raven, and Stink as the only people who can hold Odium.

 

Cultivation, may I please have a one-on-one PM with every player in the game except Surgebound? I would be much obliged. Especially dowanx. And I don't need a new one with Kipper. Thank you very much in advance.

 

EDIT: And if anyone wants to confess to being the new holder of the Shard of Ruin, and to roleblocking me last night, please do so, because that puts Clanky back on the suspect list.

Edited October 5, 2015 by Seonid

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Well, I didn't invest in you, so either something happened or Joe messed up. I think it's the first. 

 

Cult, can I get a PM with everyone?

[Clanky he/him]

Seonid, even if I had passed on Ruin that still doesn't account for when I was role-blocked when I was attempting to block Phat. Since you are the only one that could have done that, Seonid.

 

Does anyone know what shards have invested in Seonid?

[Seonid he/him]

Seonid, even if I had passed on Ruin that still doesn't account for when I was role-blocked when I was attempting to block Phat. Since you are the only one that could have done that, Seonid.

 

Does anyone know what shards have invested in Seonid?

 

I may have posted above listing them in order!

 

Also, if you remember, I admitted roleblocking you that cycle! Just like I admitted roleblocking you last night! And both were at Wilson's suggestion, as she was convinced that you were the last OC. Kipper can back me up on that, at least, for all he doesn't trust me anymore. He was in the same PM. He can see that every cycle for the past 3, Wilson has asked me to roleblock you. That was done in the open between us.

 

Are you being willfully blind here?

[STINK he/him]

So it's Seonid? I'm not really sure...