Long Game 22: Corenne al'Daishar

[little wilson she/her]

EDIT: As has been mentioned to me previously, a tunnel is where a player has a suspicion about someone and they are not being logical about said suspicion. That is not me. Furthermore, I haven't been contradicted by any other players, in fact some agree with me. This is not a tunnel, Wilson. It's analysis.

 

No, a tunnel is when you're so focused on someone being evil that you don't really listen to anything else that could potentially prove otherwise. Typically, people in tunnels are guilty of confirmation bias.

 

So let's look at the facts. I've voted someone for the lynch, giving my reasons for why that person is suspicious. I've voted a Mayor, also giving my reasons for that vote. I've offered my reads on a number of different players, with multiple suspicions. All of this is about as much or more than most of the people who've posted so far.

 

Yet you're saying I'm not contributing anything. You're quick to spin anything I say in a direction that I didn't mean it (as evidenced by my comment about being done with the meta lynch discussion, which I'm pretty sure 90% of the people who read that knew what I meant, but you spun it to mean that I'm done talking about the lynch period and you're still insisting that's what I meant), and you're quick to ignore anything of substance I say. You're focused single-mindedly on me, and you're trying to get the discussion focused around me by asking people their opinions on me or questioning them when they say they tentatively trust me.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's the very definition of a tunnel. 

 

Also, you're barking up the wrong tree and I think you'll very much regret it if I die.

[STINK he/him]

Killing who? Who do you want to kill besides everyone?

Besides everyone? Maybe you.

[Elbereth she/her]

So. Let's talk about roleclaiming, shall we? And really, we're not only talking about roleclaiming. We're talking about trust. That's the big issue here.

Let's see, how do I start...

Your role is important. It's information which at this moment no one knows but you (unless you're a Darkfriend or a Warder/Chaneller pair). The eliminators would dearly love to know your role (no matter what it is - this includes no role. If you want extensive discussion of why vanilla roles are just as important, I believe there's a bunch in AG2. PM me during the night and I can find links if you want. Don't have time to go find them right now.), and they may or may not be actively trying to find those roles out (depending on who's on the team). Plus, they have four (or more; I just picked a number and haven't put any thought into what the numbers actually will be) people gathering information instead of just one, which is basically the current limit on info-gathering for the village. That's four times as much information, which the Darkfriends won't just use for suspicions like the village but in deciding who they kill.

Obviously, this is a bad thing.

So why do people do it? Why do they claim? It's not because they haven't heard this logic in some form before, because for the most part they have.

It's something about PMs, I think. No one would ever think about recklessly claiming like that in thread. (Barring exceptions when it actually makes sense to do so so, like Wyrm in AG2 (ish) or Peng in LG2.) So why do it in PMs?

Two reasons, I think, although they're somewhat related. One, PMs feel more... intimate. Personal. You're a lot more willing to trust one person than a whole group. (Which is why group PMs tend to be quiet unless it's a group of cleared people.) (To an extent, that trust is correct: talking in thread, the eliminators are guaranteed to see what you've said. In PMs, they only have a 20% chance or so. But you feel that way with every person to a greater or lesser degree, and if you tell something (like a role, or whatever other information you have) to multiple people, I think it's easy to fall into the trap of imagining a 20% chance for each instead of somewhat additive. Plus, you imagine it as a smaller chance, perhaps, because you're telling people you trust, but... trust isn't always right. A healthy amount of paranoia will get you far.) And you can talk directly and privately (barring PM spying) to people you trust. I'll come back to that in a moment.

Secondly, at least in my experience, PMs have a mutual, unspoken agreement that even if you don't trust the other person, both of you will respond pretending like you do.

Now, that's not always the case, but in general it is at least at first because 1) a PM without at least a small amount of trust (whether real or not) is not going to last long or be productive, and 2) because most of the time you don't want to accuse someone in a PM when you could accuse them in thread in front of everyone, which puts a lot more pressure on them and then everyone can see their reaction and judge for themselves how suspicious the other is. So you keep this agreement, right. You pretend like you trust each other. And a lot of the time, that gets confused with actually trusting them with information. Which should not happen.

So, why do people claim in PMs? Because they at least somewhat trust the people they're talking to. Should they? No. No, they should not. Every time you're thinking about claiming to someone, imagine that they're a Darkfriend/Corrupted and think what they could do with that information. And balance that against how much you trust someone.

Keep in mind that unless you specifically ask them to (and sometimes even then), people will have much less compunctions about sharing your information than sharing their own. So even if you only tell your role to one person you seriously trust, if they suspect you in return they could very well go around to other people saying "so and so claims this. What do you think?", and it's very easy for that kind of thing to reach the eliminators' ears.

Also keep in mind that there's a conversion role this game. So you could give all of your information to someone you trust, and they could even be village! ...And then they're converted the very next cycle and the Corrupted get all of their information. Which is why we should probably not be claiming or giving information to people even if they're basically cleared.

Stellar example of this, by the way: Joe in QF15. Villager. Not technically confirmed, but still got tons of info C1 because of how village he was acting. Then I converted him C2, and I had all of that information. Don't claim!

Also, there's another question to ask. Why are you claiming? Why does this person need to know who you are? 90% of the time, there's no reason. You're claiming just... because. What's the point of that? If someone else needs to know your role, go ahead and claim to them, but if they don't, why the storms are you telling them?

So don't roleclaim without a good reason. Really. Please, please don't.

Okay, I'm done. Probably won't be able to get a suspicion list up before I have to go, unfortunately. And I almsot certainly won't be on again until after turnover. I do have time to respond to a couple things, though.

What do you think about Wilson, El?

EDIT: As has been mentioned to me previously, a tunnel is where a player has a suspicion about someone and they are not being logical about said suspicion. That is not me. Furthermore, I haven't been contradicted by any other players, in fact some agree with me. This is not a tunnel, Wilson. It's analysis.

I'll respond more fully when I make a suspicion list, but short version - Wilson is far too good of a player for me to read at this stage in the game, really. I'd have to go back through everything she's said to get any kind of idea, and I don't have time for that right now. Sorry.

I'm thinking we stop the meta conversation and talk about killing someone during the day right now. We can save that fun meta conversation for the night.

Agreed, so much. There's not as much to talk about during the night, so that's when we can bring up things like night kill roles and the Corrupted faction and how to deal with that. For now let's focus more on the lynch, I think.

And I'm basically off for the day, now. May be around for fifteen more minutes, maybe, but nothing beyond that. See you on the other side of turnover!

[Master Elodin]

No, a tunnel is when you're so focused on someone being evil that you don't really listen to anything else that could potentially prove otherwise. Typically, people in tunnels are guilty of confirmation bias.

 

So let's look at the facts. I've voted someone for the lynch, giving my reasons for why that person is suspicious. I've voted a Mayor, also giving my reasons for that vote. I've offered my reads on a number of different players, with multiple suspicions. All of this is about as much or more than most of the people who've posted so far.

 

Yet you're saying I'm not contributing anything. You're quick to spin anything I say in a direction that I didn't mean it (as evidenced by my comment about being done with the meta lynch discussion, which I'm pretty sure 90% of the people who read that knew what I meant, but you spun it to mean that I'm done talking about the lynch period and you're still insisting that's what I meant), and you're quick to ignore anything of substance I say. You're focused single-mindedly on me, and you're trying to get the discussion focused around me by asking people their opinions on me or questioning them when they say they tentatively trust me.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's the very definition of a tunnel. 

 

Also, you're barking up the wrong tree and I think you'll very much regret it if I die.

I'm sorry. I realize now that I was being overly aggressive. While I still do not trust you completely, I'll try to be less aggressive.

Besides everyone? Maybe you.

Me specifically? Good luck.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Alright, I'm going to give some of my reads real quick before I have to go.

Wilson-Slight distrust, but I believe that we will regret if she dies. So, not all that sure on her.

Meta-Slight distrust.

Elodin-Slight trust. I like this more outgoing Playstyle.

Elbereth-Slight trust.

Orlok-Slight trust

Lopen-small(less than slight) trust.

Sheep-small distrust

Hael- small trust.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Apologies for not posting much I don't have much to say. I'm in the car on mobile driving back from a wedding and I get car sick easily so I can't read these large elbereth, Wilson, or meta paragraphs. What I will say is that I trust Meta with the mayor role more than the other people up for mayor (other than myself of course).

Also I believe there's no inactivity filter so I encourage the people who, like me, have no better suspicions due to it being day one and lynch inactives for denying us information! Obviously if you have a strong enough suspicioun on someone I believe you should keep your vote on them because that's what I would do and you shouldn't not act on your suspicions just because you don't have any solidified information. Educated guesses are better than random chance.

[Straw he/him]

After going through everything I now have some actual stuff to contribute.

Sart: Something feels weird about him. I can't' really place it and it might just be his style so don't take my read on him too seriously.

Elbereth: Unsure about Elbereth. She could just not trust herself to make the right decisions. What makes me suspicious is something about this style feels similar to the style she used in QF15.

[Master Elodin]

Elodin-Slight trust. I like this more outgoing Playstyle.

Thanks! I'm glad you like it! Anyways, to business. I tentatively trust Elbereth. Enough to trust her with Mayor, but not enough to entrust her with sensitive information. Sart does seem suspicious right now, but I'm going to wait for more discussion.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Master Elodin

[Seonid he/him]

Alright, there is a whole lot for me to respond to. I was out most of the night last night - my apologies, but I had a date with my wife, and that was just a little more important than SE. You can all lynch me for heresy if you like

 

Actually, much more has happened than I have time to respond to. So I'll hit the two salient points: Mezal and Sarah. (I like the trend of addressing characters instead of players - I think I'll keep it up; as much as I can, at least).

 

Mezal, my concerns about discussion have not played out. I am glad about that - glad that this didn't turn quickly into a bandwagon on Sart (and for something stupid too - this rivals the Ripple Effect, in my opinion) that stifled discussion elsewhere. In fact, we have had an excellent lynch discussion today. My concerns on that front are completely alleviated.

 

I didn't realize that you have been so concerned about the current meta - that background information makes your actions seem much more reasonable. I hope that you can see why I would be worried, at least at the time. It looked like something that was reasonable grounds for suspicion, and certainly something that was worth bringing up.

 

Now, with regards to the actual lynch discussion.

 

Well, actually, with regards to the Sarah discussion, because that's the only lynch discussion we've had. Nobody else has been considered as an actual candidate.

 

Personally, we have had the best Day 1 discussion I've seen in recent games. I don't think Sarah has been suspicious enough to lynch as a possible Darkfriend, and I'd rather not lynch him because of his response to the meta he was used to. I feel that Orlok, Elbereth, and Twei have all been convincing in presenting defenses there.

 

But, finding out his alignment will be the most useful thing that this day could end up with, just because of the insight it will give us into the other players and the way that they have defended or attacked him. In particular, if Sarah is evil, than this will soft-clear Meta and Wilson, and that's a huge benefit to the village. I feel like a jerk for doing this, but Sarah.

 

EDIT: I was going to remove my vote on Conquestor here, but I just remembered that Gamma asked us to do it in the original post. So I'm removing it there.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Seonid

[Mailliw73 he/him]

First off, if Sart is evil, that would clear Wilson and Meta not at all in my eyes.

Second, I don't actually suspect Hael much. Meta, like Seonid, I feel bad about this, but something feels off.

[Master Elodin]

Yeah, I think it's time for me to vote. Mostly to solidify the lynch, but also for the information, I vote Sarah.

[Straw he/him]

To solidify this: Sarah.

Edited June 4, 2016 by ThatTinyStrawMan

[Seonid he/him]

Okay, guys, now this is what we call a bandwagon.

 

A pair of votes just to solidify a lynch, towards the end of a cycle...in a game where the only vote manipulation ability is the Mayor, and the current mayor-elect is voting for the lynch target?

 

I am becoming increasingly uncomfortable about this. My vote stays for now, but I want to register my discontent. Something is off about this whole day.

 

Amaiya (Mailliw), care to elaborate. You see it too. Maybe if we put our guts together, we can figure it out. Kelend (Wilson), any thoughts?

[Master Elodin]

Yeah, I guess that makes sense. Just so that discussion can actually affect the lynch, I will remove my vote on Sart.

[AliasSheep]

Yeah, I guess that makes sense. Just so that discussion can actually affect the lynch, I will remove my vote on Sart.

You voted without posting your reasoning, and then removed it as soon as Seonid says you're bandwagoning.  That seems oddly suspicious to me.

 

And StrawMan, just outright bandwagonining.  And you still haven't defended yourself.

[STINK he/him]

Eh, right now I'd say that some people may be bandwagoning 'cause most of the day has been discussion about the meta (ugh I know) (also it wasn't about the Meta but but just the meta ya know) so yeah then due to all the arguments (ahem, logical discussions) , they decided to like try and avoid getting in one by voting on someone but know it's kinda backfiring on them I guess. 

[Conquestor he/him]

Something does seem off. People don't usually solidify votes so early, so, either everyone thinks she is really suspicious or eliminators are manipulating. This is day one, so, unless an eliminator roleclaimed on the forums, no one knows if anyone is anything. What we haved discussed so far is ok, but we keep going to the same stuff over and ove again.

 

What I don't get is what the eliminators are trying to do at this point, I mean if you look at the forum, it really is a messy discussion. Barely anyone has even given reasons fr why they voted or said something about someone. I think that the eliminators are either doing a great job or everyone one is falling onto their face. 

[jaimeleecee she/her]

I am completely put off by this Sarah lynching bandwagon.. I guess I just don't get it. I don't see an issue with any of Sart's posts and no one has given any good arguments other than something being off or that Sarah was trying to divert the conversation in the beginning. I'm just not buying it.

[Seonid he/him]

Honestly, I'm only voting because the information (including connections to other people based on who's attacked and who's defended Sarah) from Sarah's lynch seems like the best outcome for today. I'm more than happy to vote and argue for a better candidate, because I sure as heck don't think Sarah's a good one, but I don't have one at the moment.

 

If you have any suspicions for the thread, I'd love to hear them.

[jaimeleecee she/her]

I'm still voting for Gladium/Straw. His jumping on the bandwagon and then jumping right off furthered my suspicions against him.. He continues to offers little to know reasonings for his actions and hasn't offered any arguments in his defense. He bandwagon voted for both mayor and lynchings and that to me is way more fishy than starting a conversation about day 1 lynchings.

[Bugsy he/him]

I'm still voting for Gladium/Straw. His jumping on the bandwagon and then jumping right off furthered my suspicions against him.. He continues to offers little to know reasonings for his actions and hasn't offered any arguments in his defense. He bandwagon voted for both mayor and lynchings and that to me is way more fishy than starting a conversation about day 1 lynchings.

That tends to be, unfortunately, somewhat normal for him. Still, you make a good point and an outside perspective may be helpful. Let's see if we can generate some discussion on this. Sarah Straw

[Mailliw73 he/him]

A pair of votes just to solidify a lynch, towards the end of a cycle...in a game where the only vote manipulation ability is the Mayor, and the current mayor-elect is voting for the lynch target?

I am becoming increasingly uncomfortable about this. My vote stays for now, but I want to register my discontent. Something is off about this whole day.

Amaiya (Mailliw), care to elaborate. You see it too. Maybe if we put our guts together, we can figure it out. Kelend (Wilson), any thoughts?

Agreed completely. I didn't like the Sart lynch from the beginning. I highly doubt it was an eliminator tactic to bring up D1 lynches. If it was, it was a terrible one.

Sorry, care to explain that last part? I'm a bit confused.

[Seonid he/him]

Agreed completely. I didn't like the Sart lynch from the beginning. I highly doubt it was an eliminator tactic to bring up D1 lynches. If it was, it was a terrible one.

Sorry, care to explain that last part? I'm a bit confused.

 

Sorry to confuse you - I think my typing had a fail in there (should have been a question mark in there after elaborate).

 

Just asking you to elaborate on your bad feeling about this, noting that you and I might be seeing the same thing and that if we talk it out, we might figure out what feels so off. And asking Wilson if she had any thoughts.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Sorry to confuse you - I think my typing had a fail in there (should have been a question mark in there after elaborate).

Just asking you to elaborate on your bad feeling about this, noting that you and I might be seeing the same thing and that if we talk it out, we might figure out what feels so off. And asking Wilson if she had any thoughts.

Gotcha. Well, my first thought is that, as eliminators, either Meta or Wilson or both, they're devious enough to throw one of their teammates under the bus, knowing it could soft-clear them for most people. I don't know what it is, but the lynch seems to be being pushed really hard for the terrible foundation it has.

[STINK he/him]

I feel like I'm watching some talk show right now